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Saeta YieldSummer 2017
Saeta Yield is a total return investment opportunity
2
Attractive Dividend
Yield
Recurrent and stable cash
flows
based on resilient regulation and
successful operations
Attractive valuation
based on untapped fundamental value
Share Price
Upside
Accretive growth
potential
based on demonstrated track record and existing
liquidity
Dividend Per Share Growth
2
Saeta Yield currently combines:
€62.1m
A robust portfolio of renewable energy assets capable of generating stable cash flows and dividends
(1)Recurrent figures are calculated with the average of the coming 5 years. The incorporation in the future of new assets will alter significantly these figures. The data included in these graphs do not constitute any kind of guidance or commitment from the company. Main hypothesis employed: Reasonable return @ 7.4%, inflation and interest rates according to forward curves and production according to historical average. (2) The Board of Directors approves quarterly the dividend distribution, and can change the dividend payment if expected Recurrent CAFD changes because of structural reasons. (3) Spanish tax authorities do not withhold taxes on share premium distributions. SAY currently has €600m of outstanding share premium in its equity.
Robust portfolio: 884 MW in Spain & Uruguay
539 MW
16 wind farms
250 MW
5 CSP plants
Long-life assets: c.21 years of remaining life
Fully operational with good performance
100% renewable electricity
Good regulation scheme and outstanding PPA
Hard currency remuneration (Euro and US Dollar)
Full service long-term O&M contracts in place (no CAPEX)
No corporate tax in Spain until 2024
Stable cash flows & dividend
3
95 MW
2 wind farms
Attractive dividend policy based on a high pay-out ratio of the Recurrent CAFD, quarterly payments and tax-effective distribution of the share premium(3)
3
Recurrent EBITDA(1)
€230m
€73.1m
Recurrent CAFD(1)
Mainly Debt
Service
Current Dividend(2)
Pay out 80% - 95%
Predictable and recurrent cash flows
The incorporation in the future of new assets will alter significantly these figures. The data included in these graphs do not constitute any kind of guidance or commitment from the company. Main hypothesis employed: Reasonable return @ 7.4%, inflation and interest rates according to forward curves and production according to historical average.(1) Cash flows have been adjusted to represent the Recurrent CAFD: (a) intragroup tax consolidation mechanism (cash neutral) and (b) adding back the €4.4m expenses of the proceeds coming from the financing of Serrezuela that are still pending to be invested in new acquisitions. 4
Stable debt service (interests + principal)
Long term cash flow profile
Period of stability
Tax in Spain
Project finance matures
Assets end of life
4
Predictable operating cash flows
(1)
• No corporate tax in Spain until 2024
• 2028-2034 CAFD plateau at above c. €100m p.a. once debt in the SPVs is fully repaid
• Assets showing excellent operating performance• Regulated or PPA contracted revenues• O&M & main expenses under control
• Debt service sculpted for slightly decreasing payments
c. €230 m
c. €160 m
c. €73 m
Cash flow visibility underpinned by regulatory scheme in Spain
(1) Remuneration to operation is not applicable to wind assets;
(2) Revenues as calculated according to the Spanish regulation standards
• Output sold in the wholesale market
• Price bands defined to limit market risk exposure
Market Component Regulated Component
Electricity saleat market price
Remuneration to Investment
Remuneration to Operation (1)
• Capacity payment on top of other components to guarantee a 7.4% pretaxreturn on initial investment
• CAPEX determined based on standard per technology and year of construction
• A minimum annual load factor must be meet
• Payment per MWh produced (up to a maximum hours per year)
• To recover those operating costs above expected market price
• Value determined based on standard expenses per technology
55
Price bands reduce market risk to c. ±3% of total revenues
Capacity payment which does not have volumetric risk
Regulatory scheme with reduced exposure to
market and volumetric risks
Spanish 2017 expected revenues(2)
There are solid reasons to maintain the Reasonable Return at 7.4% from 2019 onwards
66
• No deficit expected
• Update is not mandatory and spread has to be defined
• Spanish banking system cannot bear a RR reduction
• 2020 & 2030 renewable targets require proper regulatory signals
• Networks returns can only be reduced by 50 bps p.a. from 2020
• Government will face new lawsuits
• Rates reduction
Political pressure to maintain the Reasonable Return
7.4%
Variable spread depending on
industry conditions(1)
24 months average of the Spanish 10y
Bond
(1) The Law 24/2013 says: The remuneration parameters shall be determined taking into account the cyclical situation of the economy, the electricity demand and the adequate profitability for these activities for regulatory periods of six years. These remuneration parameters may be reviewed before the beginning of the regulatory period. In case of failure to carry out this review, it shall be understood as extended for the entire following regulatory period"; Article 14.6: "In order to allow adequate remuneration above a low risk activity, the return rate of the recognized net investment shall be referenced to the performance of the 10-year State Obligations on the secondary market, increased by one appropriate spread.Prior to the 1st of January of the last year of the regulatory period (2019 in this case), the Energy Ministry will send to the Cabinet the Law Project including the proposed spread, to be approved by the Parliament.
Maintain Reasonable Return
Reduce Reasonable Return
Leverage risk and regulatory risk are limited
7
5.7
5.2
4.7
4.5
4.0
3.4
2.8
2.3
1.6
1.0
x.xNet Debt-to-EBITDA in a no-growth scenario
Even in the case of an unexpected lower RR return the impact is not so relevant as
market believes it to be
• Uruguay will diversify CAFD generation
• Spanish regulator has no fundamental reasons to change the 7.4% Reasonable Return (RR)
• For each 50 bp change in RR, net revenues will decrease c. €5m while CAFD c. €3m(1)
Accelerated deleverage profile
7
In a no-growth scenario, the portfolio reduces its leverage steadily in a very
healthy speed
• All current existing debt at project level:
o c. 75% of debt swapped
o Avge. cost of debt @ 4.1%
o 17 yrs of remaining life
o >3x EBITDA / Interest paid from year 1
Regulatory risk is limited
All data in this slide refers to the current portfolio of assets including Uruguayan agreed assets (in the debt graphs) and those under the Spanish regulation for the regulatory risk sensitivity. The incorporation in the future of new assets will alter significantly these figures. The data included in these graphs do not constitute any kind of guidance or commitment from the company. Main hypothesis employed: Reasonable return @ 7.4%, inflation and interest rates according to forward curves and production according to historical average.
Active asset management is optimizing operations and bringing additional cash flows
8
Efficiencies since IPO Future efficiencies
Reduction of energy self-consumption
Wind O&M contracts adjustments
Lower gas consumption in CSP
Control center costs reduction
Collaboration agreements to reduce local taxes
Environmental monitoring costs reduction
IRS extended to reduce long term floating interest rates exposure
Reduction of energy consumption
Land rental agreements renegotiation
Waste management costs reduction
Security and other costs reduction
Reduction of “energy unbalanced costs”
Advanced management of market revenues
Improvement of market agent costs
8
Target CAFD increase: c. €0.5m reduction1
Achieved CAFD increase: c. €0.4m reduction
(1) Not considered in current RECAFD
Saeta Yield is a total return investment opportunity
9
Attractive Dividend
Yield
Recurrent and stable cash
flows
based on resilient regulation and
successful operations
Attractive valuation
based on untapped fundamental value
Share Price
Upside
Accretive growth
potential
based on demonstrated track record and existing
liquidity
Dividend Per Share Growth
9
Saeta Yield currently combines:
SAY stock price offers attractive returns and yield
10
(1) Considering 10.1 euros per share and updated RECAFD of €73.1m.(2) Considering 10.1 euros per share and annualized dividend of €62.1m.(3) Implicit IRR of investing in the stock at 10.1 euros per share and discounting all future equity cash-flows (including the cash in the balance sheet). This do not
constitute any kind of guidance or commitment from the company.(4) Discounting equity cash flows with an equity IRR of 8% and tuning down reasonable return to get a valuation equivalent to the current share price (1-Jun-17).
These hypothesis of cost of equity are above the average used in the analyst consensus.10
Cash yield of 8.9%(1)
Comparable Yieldcos trade at 8.5% Cash Yield
Dividend yield of 7.5%(2)
SAY expected cash flows yield high single digit equity IRR(3)
Shares trading at an implicit Reasonable Return(4) c.6.4%
SAY has the highest dividend yield in the Spanish market (even after a c.30% share price increase YTD)
We believe the value of SAY to be higher than the current market capitalization, based on future cash flows and analyst’s cost of equity
11
• Valuation Date: December 2016• The equity IRR (Ke) range used has been 8%, significantly higher than the average of the consensus covering Saeta Yield. With the
average 7% Ke used by the consensus, the valuation of Saeta Yield increases to more than € 980 m, equivalent to 12.00 euros per share.
+
Cash as of Dec16 minus Carapé paymt:
€115m
SAY Valuation:
c.€870-910m(€ 10.6-11.1 p.s.)
€10.1 per share or a market cap of €825m implies:
• A very high single digit equity IRR for the whole portfolio at a 7.4% RR
• A RR of c. 6.4% considering a Ke=c.8.0% for wind and CSP assets
The incorporation in the future of new assets will alter significantly these figures. The data included in these graphs do not constitute any kind of guidance or commitment from the company. Main hypothesis employed: Reasonable return @ 7.4%, inflation and interest rates according to forward curves and production according to historical average.
Even in a no-growth scenario, SAY share price should increase in the following years as “tail equity cash flows” get closer
12
The annual payment of 80% - 95% of SAY cash flows as dividends should mean less than the positive effect of getting
closer to the large “tail equity cash flows” once debt is fully paid
Illu
stra
tive
of
shar
e p
rice
The incorporation in the future of new assets will alter significantly these figures. The data included in these graphs do not constitute any kind of guidance or commitment from the company. Main hypothesis employed: Reasonable return @ 7.4%, inflation and interest rates according to forward curves and production according to historical average.
Illustrative of the equity value of SAY based on the valuation date
Saeta Yield valuation as a “bond” provides a very attractive implicit yield
13
-
Cash as of Mar17 minus Carapé paymt:
€140m
A stock market valuation of €685m for just the renewable generation assets of Saeta Yield
implies an implicit cash yield of 10.7%(1)
and a dividend yield of 9.0%(2)
Current Market Cap:
€825m
Stock market valuation of the assets:
€685m
(1) Implicit cash yield= €73.1m/€685m; (2) Implicit dividend yield= €62.1m/€685m;
Saeta Yield is a total return investment opportunity
14
Attractive Dividend
Yield
Recurrent and stable cash
flows
based on resilient regulation and
successful operations
Attractive valuation
based on untapped fundamental value
Share Price
Upside
Accretive growth
potential
based on demonstrated track record and existing
liquidity
Dividend Per Share Growth
14
Saeta Yield currently combines:
Saeta growth will combine RoFO and 3rd party acquisitions
15
Clear Investment Criteria
Energy infrastructure assets in operation
Value accretive and cash enhancing: targeting double digit equity IRR and cash yield
Long term revenue schemes
Safe regulations or investment grade PPA offtakers
Hard Currencies
Europe and certain countries in America: US, Canada, México, Colombia, Peru, Uruguay, Chile
RoFO AgreementAttractive pipeline
3rd Party AcquisitionsDemonstrated capabilities
15
Investment in 2017 expected to exceed 2016 figures
Saeta Yield is delivering solid and accretive growth in a challenging environment. Discipline and shareholder value are our priorities
1616
• Four excellent assets
• Accretive acquisitions delivering RECAFD growth
• Double digit equity returns achieved in all cases in a yield compression environment
• Diversified growth: RoFOvs. 3rd parties, CSP vs. wind, Spain vs. overseas
• Growth is strengthening the overall portfolio
(1) Percentage of increase vs. the IPO portfolio EBITDA (€154m) and RECAFD (€62m). The data included in these graphs do not constitute any kind of guidance or commitment from the company. Main hypothesis employed: Reasonable return @ 7.4%, inflation and interest rates according to forward curves and production according to historical average.
Extresol 2 & 3
E1
E2
E3
Carapé I & II
10.5% Cash Yield
Double digit Equity IRR
€53m EBITDA (+33%)(2)
+€4.7m RECAFD (+7.6%)(2)
>10% Cash Yield
Double digit Equity IRR
c. €22m EBITDA (+14%)(1)
+€3.0m RECAFD (+4.8%)(1)
Delivery:
+€7.7m RECAFD from acquisitions
Saeta Yield is analysing new opportunities for 2017 to boost profitable and disciplined growth
RoFO Third Party
Current RoFO pipeline
POR Lestenergia(1) 144 MW In Operation. Repowered
MEX Oaxaca 102 MW In Operation
URU Kiyu 49 MW COD achieved
URU Pastorale(2) 49 MW COD in 2H17
PERU Cajamarca 400 KM COD in 2H17
PERU Marcona(3) 32 MW In Operation
PERU Tres Hermanas(3) 97 MW In Operation
SPA Manchasol 1 50 MW In Operation
Committed to carry on with RoFO dropdowns
17
(1) These include 9 wind plants totaling 144 MW, recently enhanced after the repowering of 20 MW. (2) Pastorale is not part of the Initial RoFO Assets.(3) In Marcona and Tres Hermanas, co-shareholders have a right of first refusal, a tag along, a drag along and a call option. The call option is
exercisable at any time within 18 months following COD. ACS SI currently owns a 51% stake in the two wind farms in Peru totaling 129MW
On track to deliver double digit RECAFD growth in 2017
17
Lestenergia RoFO notice received
Significant liquidity to fund dividend payment and additional accretive RoFO and/or third party acquisitions
(1) Not considering the Cash in DSRA: €73.7m. Cash Balance: €138m at the HoldCo and €83m at plants (most of it to be distributed to the Holdco up to July)(2) According to a Terms and Conditions pre-agreed with a financial entity(3) Equity value of USD 65 m. An additional USD 20 m cash could be deployed if the subordinated debt in place is early prepaid (currently being negotiated); Exchange rate used
is 1.1 USD/EUR18
Mar17 Cash at SPVs
& Holdco(1)
15
Leverage in Valcaire Wind
Plant(2)
Pre-agreed
80
HoldCoLeverage
100% undrawn
75-125
Revolving Credit Facility
To be raised in 2H17
(60-80)
Carapeacquisition(3)
Paid & potential
final figure(3)
Total potential liquidity
<2x CAFD
Potential available liquidity of the Company (€m)
311-381
221
231-301
Manchasol 2 has been refinanced
19
Previous Financing New financing
• Debt remaining amount: €190m• Tenor: 11.8 yrs. (Mar 2029) • Avg. debt rate (2018e) @ 6.3%• Distributions: annually• IRS: hedged 75% of the debt
• New amount: €199m (TrancheA €159m + TrancheB €40m)• Tenor: T.A.: 15.6 yrs. (Dec 2032) & T.B.: 17.1 yrs (Jun 2034)• Avg. debt rate (2018e) @ 4.7%• Distributions: semi-annually• IRS: reshaped to hedge 75% of T.A.
Increased annual RECAFD (+€4.6m): longer tenor & lower marginValue accretive transaction with no cash equity injection needed
Debt Service Calendar
Former financing
New financing
Key hypothesis:• Reasonable return from the Spanish renewables regulation to remain @ 7.4%. Electricity prices 2017-2019 as in the regulation, inflation applied afterwards.• Euribor curve by May17, inflation 1.5%, tax rate 25%, 25 years plant operations.• Carapé investment of € 80 m. Cash cost financing calculated applying a 6.5% cash cost to the invested figure; coming from a blend of the opportunity cash cost of the Holdco cash
(0.2%) and the cash cost (9.5%) of the proportional funds from Serrezuela financing used in the acquisition. • RECAFD is calculated as the average of the CAFD in the coming 5 years, including 2017. This figure does not include the interest expenses and the debt repayment of the non
invested funds from the pool of cash and the Serrezuela financing (c. €4.5m for 2017 after the acquisition of Carapé) as this negative carry will be eliminated in future acquisitions.
RECAFD will stand at €73.1m, including +€4.6m from the Manchasol 2 refinancing
20
Recurrent CAFD after Carapé and the Refinancing of M2 (€m)
Unlevered RECAFD Carapé(incl. new
HoldCo exp.)
+8.2
(5.2)
Cash Cost of Financing of
Carapé
+1.3
Other updates including SAY operational initiatives
Previous announced
RECAFD
68.2
+4.6
Extra CAFD due to the
refinancing of Manchasol 2
73.1
New RECAFD
Net Carapé effect
+€3.0m
RECAFD announced in
Feb17
68.5
+15.4%vs. IPO RECAFD
of €63.5m
+7.7%vs. Last RECAFD
guidance of €68.5m
RECAFD guidance
post updated regulation
64.2(4.0)
Dec16 Regulatory
Update
The extra CAFD from Carapé and Manchasol 2 refinancing more than compensates the CAFD delay from the regulatory update
CAFD delayed
Saeta Yield Board of Directors approved a new dividend policy, incl. a pay out ratio range between 80-95% of RECAFD
21
SAY will retain c. € 10 m p.a. to promote further growth or face RECAFD volatility
New pay-out
80-95%
• Board of Directors has set the current reference of the pay-out ratio @ 85%(2)
• Saeta Yield remains with the largest pay-out ratio among YieldCo peers
• More robust dividend policy:
− After capital increases, SAY can increase the pay out to maintain DPS
− Use pay-out to proactively confront RECAFD volatility to anchor DPS
• Saeta Yield is fully aligned with a sustainable and growing DPS
YieldCos(1) pay-out ratio targets
85%
Highest
c.80%
Average
60%
Lowest
85%
YieldCo Peers
(1) Refers to the 7 main North American comparable YieldCos(2) All future pay-out ratio and dividend figures included in this document are the forecasts of the management team by the day of the publication of the document. Therefore, do not constitute a closed commitment of payment from the Company and are subject to the final quarterly approvals of the Board of Directors. The Board of Directors will reevaluate quarterly the dividend amount to be paid based on the expected Recurrent CAFD prospects of the company and specific events that might take place in the Company. The dividend increase described will be prorated since May 25, 2017
Annualized dividend to increase to €62.1m (or €0.76 ps)(1)
22
SAY confirms its growing DPS strategy: +8.9% DPS increase since IPO
+1.1%
Previous annualized dividend
New annualized dividend
€61.4m(€0.75 ps)
Last approved
RECAFD: €68.2m
Pay-out: 90%
X
€62.1m(€0.76 ps)(1)
New approved
RECAFD: €73.1m
Pay-out: 85%(1)
X
+8.9%vs. IPO Dividend
of €57.0m
(1) All future pay-out ratio and dividend figures included in this document are the forecasts of the management team by the day of the publication of the document. Therefore, do not constitute a closed commitment of payment from the Company and are subject to the final quarterly approvals of the Board of Directors. The Board of Directors will reevaluate quarterly the dividend amount to be paid based on the expected Recurrent CAFD prospects of the company and specific events that might take place in the Company. The dividend increase described will be prorated since May 25, 2017
Saeta Yield will continue increasing its DPS through accretive growth
At IPO 2016 2017 2018 …
Initial Portfolio RoFO Dropdowns 3rd party acquisitions
Strong and flexible financial position to make accretive acquisitions of additional operating assets, that will crystalize in an attractive DPS growth
Multiple funding sources
Liquidity & Non-distributed CAFD
1
Valcaire financing2
RCF3
Debt capacity at HoldCo4
Attractive DPS growth
23
(1) Actual paid dividend. 2017 Multiplying 1Q17 payment times 4.(2) New annualized dividend after Manchasol 2 refinancing and Carapé acquisition. All future pay-out ratio and dividend figures included in this document are the forecasts of the
management team by the day of the publication of the document. Therefore, do not constitute a closed commitment of payment from the Company and are subject to the final quarterly approvals of the Board of Directors. The Board of Directors will reevaluate quarterly the dividend amount to be paid based on the expected Recurrent CAFD prospects of the company and specific events that might take place in the Company. The dividend increase described will be prorated since May 25, 2017.
€0.43 per share(1)
€0.73 per share(1)
At least €0.75
per share(1)
At least €0.76
per share(2)
Closing remarks
SAY robust business model
Sustainable value creation for shareholders
24
Quality portfolio of operating assetsOperational excellence, cost control and value hedged by regulation
24
Liquidity to pursue accretive growth in 2017Attractive M&A opportunities identified
High dividend yield supported by stable and recurrent cash flowsSupportive regulation vs. market volatility
SAY stock price is trading at attractive levelsImplicit cash yield and returns not factoring properly SAY low risk
>20% YTD stock price increase1
c. 7.8% Dividend Yield1
c. 9% DPS growth since IPO
(1) Considering share price close of the 26th of May
Recent Performance
Summary
26
26(1) Carapé acquisition in Uruguay agreed in January 2017, most of condition precedents already met, to be closed during the month of May 2017
Good financial quarterly resultsmarket prices more than compensate adverse weather conditions
Implicit annualized dividend of 0.75 €underpinned by cash flow generation
First 3rd party international acquisition(1)
to be closed in the coming weeks
On track to deliver double digit RECAFD growth in 2017
Main figures of the period
27
27
Electricity Output 319 GWh -25%
Average market price 55.5 €/MWh +81%
Total Revenues € 70 m +42%
EBITDA € 43 m +40%
Attributable Net Results € 1 m n/a
Cash flow operating assets € 42 m +11%
Dividends Paid € 15 m +8%
In 2016 Extresol 2 and Extresol 3 were consolidated since March 22nd. This comment applies for the whole presentation.
3M17 vs. 3M16
Production affected by a blizzard that halted production in 2 plants for 1½ months.
28
Saeta Yield risk mitigation procedures and robust insurance policies have worked efficiently to mitigate the force majeure event
28
426
3M16
(89)
Blizzard production reduction
-25%
(36)
Lower wind & solar resource
effect (rest of plants)
+18
Extresol 2 & Extresol 3
319
3M17
A blizzard in Eastern Spain by mid January damaged the transmission lines of Abuela Santa Ana and Santa Catalina
wind plants, halting production for close to 2 months. Plants resumed production in March.
Material damage has been already registered in 1Q17. Profit loss, except the insurance franchise, will be
recovered in 2017 from the insurers.
3M17 vs. 3M16 electricity production bridge analysis (GWh)
Revenues grew by 42% backed by the high market prices, increased regulated revenues and the consolidation of E2 & E3
29
Forward prices stand at c. 50 €/MWh
29
49
3M16
+42%
70
3M17
(€m)
+5
Increased market revenues (higher prices more than compensate
lower production)(1)
+2
Increased regulated revenues
(after the regulatory change for years
2017-2019)
+14
E2 & E3full period
contribution (as opposed to just
9 days in 2016)
(1) 3M17 includes a €0.4 m regulatory obligation from price bands mechanism (calculated with the forward price by that time, c 48€/MWh). 3M16 revenues did not include regulatory rights, accounted in 6M16 (first quarter would have meant c. €4.5m).
3M17 vs. 3M16 revenue bridge analysis (€m)
Electricity avg. mkt. price
30.6
3M16
(€/MWh)53.7
€/MWh+87%vs. 3M16
3M17
55.5
+81%
52.4 €/MWh
+102%vs. 3M16
Achieved. mkt. price
Seasonality affects first quarter margin
30
(1) HoldCo expenses net of the revenues received due to management fees charged to Saeta Yield’s plants.
(9)
(5)(12)
(1)
3018
40
25
70
43
Electricity
Production Tax
Operation &
Maintenance
Other Plant
Expenses
13% 7% 61%
As % of revenue
First quarter EBITDA margin affected by revenue seasonality and the blizzard effect
3M17 Revenue to EBITDA bridge analysis (€m)
HoldCo Net
Expenses(1)
1%17%
30
Revenue EBITDA
€31m
3M16:
EBITDA Change in WC Debt Service Taxes, CAPEX andDSRA var.
Cash flow op. Assets YTD Dividends Cash increase in theperiod
Saeta Yield cash flow from operating assets grew by 10%
31
3M17 EBITDA to Cash Flows bridge analysis (€m)
Improved EBITDA and CNMC collections contribute to a growing cash flow
43
+11
31
€38m
3M16:(11)
(1) 42 (15)
27
Mainly a positive contribution from CNMC receivable
€+13m Serrezuelaextraordinary
cash flows
486 479
953
9 14
965
295
1,149
Gross Debt31 Dec 2016
Debt Repayment Interests accrued Gross Debt31 Mar 2017
Cash &Cash Equiv
(including DSRA)
Net Debt 31 Mar 2017
-2% net debt reduction compared to Dec16
(1) Calculated with the proforma EBITDA of Saeta Yield for 2016 (€208 m, including the EBITDA of € 8 m of Extresol 2 and 3 between the 1st of January and the 21st of March, 2016) and the Net Debt by the 31st of March, 2017.
(2) Cash in DSRA: €73.7m
(2)
Net Debt to Annualized EBITDA(1):
5.5x
1,439
All debt is non recourse at the plant level
1,444
75% of debt swapped; Average cost of debt @ 4.3%
Gross and Net Debt (€m)
32
Excellent prospects for 2017 cash flow generation
33
Expected EBITDA 2017(1)
227-229
Recurrent figures: 230 73.1
Expected CF from Operating Assets 2017(1)
77-81
• Wholesale market prices c. €6-8 per MWh above the regulated prices (49 - 51 €/MWh vs. 42.8 €/MWh)
• Price bands mechanism generates a regulatory obligation, reducing EBITDA and increasing working capital cash generation
• CNMC receivables recovery to impact positively on working capital cash flow generation
• Non-full-year contribution from Carapé assets and Manchasol 2 refinancing
(1) This guidance is based current expectations and projections about future events and are inherently uncertain and are subject to risks and assumptions. Both figures include the contribution of the Carape acquisition and the Manchasol 2 refinancing from May 25, 2017. These figures also take into consideration a market price forecast (OMIP) for 2017 in between 49 and 51 €/MWh. Given the regulatory price bands that work as a hedge to power prices, a future obligation will be recognized by the end of 2017 if prices remain at the expected levels. The Cash Flow from Operating Assets do not include the interest expenses and the debt repayment of the non-invested amount of the Serrezuela Solar financing.
(m€)
Appendix3M17 Financial Results
3M17 Consolidated Income Statement
3535
Income statement (€m) 3M16 3M17 Var.%
Total revenues 49.4 70.2 +42.1%
Staff costs -0.3 -0.7 +131.5%
Other operating expenses -18.3 -26.4 +43.7%
EBITDA 30.8 43.1 +40.2%
Depreciation and amortization -19.9 -25.9 +30.2%
EBIT 10.8 17.2 +58.5%
Financial income 0.0 0.0 -50.4%
Financial expense -12.7 -15.4 +21.5%
Profit before tax -1.8 1.8 n.a.
Income tax 0.5 -0.4 n.a.
Profit attributable to the parent -1.3 1.3 n.a.
Consolidated Balance Sheet: Assets
36
Consolidated balance sheet (€m) 31/12/2016 31/03/2017 Var.%
Non-current assets 1,905.6 1,877.5 -1.5%
Intangible assets 0.2 0.2 -3.3%
Tangible assets 1,790.9 1,765.0 -1.4%
NC fin. assets with Group companies & rel. parties 1.1 1.1 +0.0%
Equity method investments 11.9 12.4 n.a.
Non-current financial assets 14.2 13.7 -3.5%
Deferred tax assets 86.1 85.0 -1.2%
Current assets 343.2 362.2 +5.5%
Inventories 0.3 0.2 -39.1%
Trade and other receivables 74.6 65.6 -12.1%
C fin. assets with Group companies & rel. parties 0.4 0.2 -33.8%
Other current financial assets (incl. DSRA) 73.0 74.7 +2.4%
Cash and cash equivalents 194.9 221.4 +13.6%
TOTAL ASSETS 2,248.8 2,239.6 -0.4%
Consolidated Balance Sheet: Equity and Liabilities
37
Consolidated balance sheet (€m) 31/12/2016 31/03/2017 Var.%
Non-current assets 1,905.6 1,877.5 -1.5%
Intangible assets 0.2 0.2 -3.3%
Tangible assets 1,790.9 1,765.0 -1.4%
NC fin. assets with Group companies & rel. parties 1.1 1.1 +0.0%
Equity method investments 11.9 12.4 n.a.
Non-current financial assets 14.2 13.7 -3.5%
Deferred tax assets 86.1 85.0 -1.2%
Current assets 343.2 362.2 +5.5%
Inventories 0.3 0.2 -39.1%
Trade and other receivables 74.6 65.6 -12.1%
C fin. assets with Group companies & rel. parties 0.4 0.2 -33.8%
Other current financial assets (incl. DSRA) 73.0 74.7 +2.4%
Cash and cash equivalents 194.9 221.4 +13.6%
TOTAL ASSETS 2,248.8 2,239.6 -0.4%
Equity 551.5 540.7 -2.0%
Share capital 81.6 81.6 -0.0%
Share premium 637.1 621.7 -2.4%
Reserves -111.8 -81.8 -26.8%
Profit for the period of the Parent 30.0 1.3 -95.6%
Adjustments for changes in value – Hedging -85.3 -82.1 -3.7%
Non-current liabilities 1,525.8 1,513.1 -0.8%
Non-current Project finance 1,341.8 1,333.6 -0.6%
Non current derivative financial instruments 120.4 115.3 -4.2%
Deferred tax liabilities 63.7 64.2 +0.7%
Current liabilities 171.4 185.8 +8.4%
Current Project finance 96.9 110.5 +14.0%
Current derivative financial instruments 35.5 35.2 -0.6%
Other financial liabilities with Group companies 0.2 0.1 -28.7%
Trade and other payables 38.9 40.0 +2.9%
TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 2,248.8 2,239.6 -0.4%
3M17 Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
(1) Includes the acquisition of Extresol 2 & 3 and the Serrezuela financing funds disposed(2) Refers to the transactions concurrent with the IPO 38
Consolidated cash flow statement (€m) 3M173M17
Extraord.
(1)
3M17
Operating
Assets3M16
3M16
Extraord.
(2)
3M16
Operating
Assets
A) CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES 52.5 0.0 52.5 47.0 0.0 47.0
1. EBITDA 43.1 0.0 43.1 30.8 0.0 30.8
2. Changes in operating working capital 10.8 0.0 10.8 15.8 0.0 15.8
a) Inventories 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
b) Trade and other receivables 9.4 0.0 9.4 19.3 0.0 19.3
c) Trade and other payables -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -3.1 0.0 -3.1
d) Other current & non current assets and liabilities 1.6 0.0 1.6 -0.4 0.0 -0.4
3. Other cash flows from operating activities -1.5 0.0 -1.5 0.4 0.0 0.4
a) Net Interest collected / (paid) -1.5 0.0 -1.5 -1.6 0.0 -1.6
b) Income tax collected / (paid) 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.0
B) CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES -1.3 0.0 -1.3 -92.7 -92.5 -0.2
5. Acquisitions -1.3 0.0 -1.3 -92.7 -92.5 -0.2
6. Disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
C) CASH FLOW FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES -24.8 -15.4 -9.4 77.4 86.2 -8.9
7. Equity instruments proceeds 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8. Financial liabilities issuance proceeds 0.0 0.0 0.0 103.6 103.6 0.0
9. Financial liabilities amortization payments -9.4 0.0 -9.4 -12.0 -3.1 -8.9
10. Dividend payments -15.4 -15.4 0.0 -14.3 -14.3 0.0
D) CASH INCREASE / (DECREASE) 26.5 -15.4 41.8 31.6 -6.3 37.9
AppendixOther back-up slides
Regulated Revenues increased by c. €+10m p.a. to compensate the lower wholesale mkt. prices
expected for the following years
Regulatory expected price and price bands adjusted for the next 3 yrsaccording to the forward price:
First Price Band: ±3.43 & Second Price Bands: ±6.86
Retribution on operations (Ro) has been increased in €5m in the CSP portfolio while the Retribution on Investment (Ri) has been increased in
€5m in the wind portfolio
Dec 2016 semi period regulation promotes sustainability of the system while guarantees the value of our investment
40
(€/MWh) 2017 2018 2019 2020+ onwards
Prev. regulation price 52.00 52.00 52.00 52.00
Updated regulation price 42.84 41.54 41.87 52.00
Higher regulated parameters (Ri and Ro) to partially compensate the lower market price
Two main updates(1) (all figures are net of the 7% generation tax):
2014-2016 Price Bands Regulatory Right to increase the VNA(2)
€12m of additional VNA c. €+1m p.a. of cash;
not revenue(3)
To be recovered through the rest of the regulatory life through the Retribution on Investment (Ri)
1
2
(1) VNA is the net present value of the pending regulated standard investment to be collected in the remaining regulatory life. (2) All these figures and comments are based on the Ministerial Order published by the Ministry of Energy (ETU/130/2017). Additionally to the main updates described above the
steepness coefficient has been adjusted to 85.21% for wind (vs. 88.89% in the previous semi-period) and for 104.95% in CSP (vs. 102.07% in the previous semi-period) with a close to neutral impact.
(3) Revenues have already been accrued but collections are to be collected through out the remaining regulatory life.
Carapé I & II acquisition successfully closed
41
Acquisition and consolidation from May 25th, 2017Subordinated debt cancellation is still under analysis
41
(1) Equity value of USD 65 m. An additional USD 20 m cash could be deployed if the subordinated debt in place is early prepaid (currently being negotiated)(2) UTE is the state-owned vertically integrated utility company in Uruguay(3) Average of the years 2017, 2018 and 2019(4) The overall installed capacity is 95 MW to maximize the out for a contracted PPAs for of 90MW
Capacity 95 MW(4)
Production´16 335 GWh
Avg. EBITDA(3) € 22 m
Avg. Revenues(3) € 26 m
Reliable cash-flows: Inflation adjusted USD PPAs
with UTE(2): avge. 21 years starting at USD 76 per MWh (or USD 86 per MWh inflated average)
Excellent assets: Recently commissioned, good
performance, tier I turbine supplier (Vestas) and attractive wind resource (c. 44% load factor(4))
Funded with company resources: Cash at HoldCo (coming from Serrezuela financing).
Optimal use of the current liquidity
Attractive price and returns: USD 65m-85m(1)
for 100% equity stake. Double digit project equity IRR and cash yield from year one
First third party transaction: demonstrated
capability to diversify growth from RoFOsUnlevered CAFD € 8.2 m
42
Uruguay becomes a key diversification and growth pole for Saeta Yield
• Ranked top 3 in Latam in terms of democracy index, press freedom, low corruption, prosperity, rule of law and economic freedom(1)
• Leading Latam country in terms of GDP per capita(2)
• Growing GDP and population expected
• Robust investment grade rating and no default history:
An outstanding economy with very low risk profile
2006
N/A
B1
B+
2016
BBB
Baa2
BBB-
2011
BB+
Ba1
BB+
• Dollarized remuneration scheme based on PPAs backed by UTE
• UTE, state owned utility, controls 44% of generation and 100% of transmission and distribution capacity
• 70% of the installed capacity is renewable
• Total wind capacity in Uruguay amounts of 1,040 MW.
• Power demand grew up by 2.6% CAGR in the last years
• Well interconnected with Argentina and Brazil
Good electricity regulation
• First step in Uruguay
• Two additional RoFOAssets: Kiyu (49MW) and Pastorale (49MW)
• After the RoFOacquisitions, SAY to become the leading private wind operator in Uruguay
• Geographical & technological diversification of our portfolio
Strategic move for Saeta Yield
(1) Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2015; Transparency International, 2015; Legatum Institute, 2015; World Justice Project, 2016; Reporters w/o Borders, 2016; Heritage Foundation, 2016
(2) Source: IMF 2015
Regulation compensates the lower expected market prices
(1) Recurrent CAFD as of approved on February 2016 when the acquisition of Extresol 2 and Extresol 3 was announced.(2) Based on the new wholesale market price forecast set in the regulation.(3) These figures and comments are based on the Ministerial Order published by the Ministry of Energy (ETU/130/2017).
The €4m difference per annum will be recovered by SAY in future semi periods as contemplated in the Spanish regulation
43
Dec2016 Semi-period Regulatory Impact on 2017-2019 (€m)
(15.0)
Lower Market Prices(2)
Equivalent figure post lower market prices
and updated regulation
Current RECAFD(1)
68.2
64.2
+11.0
Increased Regulated
Revenues(3)
€4m to be recovered
Carapé reinforces recurrent CAFD sustainability of Saeta Yield
(1) According to the acquisition closed by May 2017,(2) Under the hypothesis of investing €80m. Calculated applying a 6.5% cash cost; a blend of the opportunity cash cost of the Holdco cash (0.2%) and the cash cost of the proportional funds from
Serrezuela financing used in the acquisition (9.5%).(3) 5 yrs. average from 2017-2021. Does not include the interest expenses and the debt repayment of the non invested funds from the pool of cash and the Serrezuela Solar financing (c. €4.4m for 2017
after the acquisition of Carapé).
Carapé will help to compensate the lower market prices and updated regulation impact
44
New Recurrent CAFD once Carape is closed(1) (€m)
Unlevered RECAFD Carapé(1) (incl. new
HoldCo exp.)
+8.2
(5.2)
Cash Cost of Financing of
Carapé(2)
68.5
New RECAFD(3)
+1.3
Other updates including SAY operational initiatives
Equivalent figure post lower market prices
and updated regulation
64.2
Carapé to provide €3m of additional RECAFD
(+4.6%)
Key hypothesis:• Reasonable return from the Spanish renewables regulation to remain @ 7.4%. Electricity prices 2017-2019 as in the regulation, inflation applied afterwards.• Euribor curve by May17, inflation 1.5%, tax rate 25%, 25 years plant operations.• Carapé investment of € 80 m. Cash cost financing calculated applying a 6.5% cash cost to the invested figure; coming from a blend of the opportunity cash cost of the Holdco cash
(0.2%) and the cash cost (9.5%) of the proportional funds from Serrezuela financing used in the acquisition. • RECAFD is calculated as the average of the CAFD in the coming 5 years, including 2017. This figure does not include the interest expenses and the debt repayment of the non
invested funds from the pool of cash and the Serrezuela financing (c. €4.5m for 2017 after the acquisition of Carapé) as this negative carry will be eliminated in future acquisitions.
RECAFD will stand at €73.1m, including +€4.6m from the Manchasol 2 refinancing
45
Recurrent CAFD after Carapé and the Refinancing of M2 (€m)
Unlevered RECAFD Carapé(incl. new
HoldCo exp.)
+8.2
(5.2)
Cash Cost of Financing of
Carapé
+1.3
Other updates including SAY operational initiatives
Previous announced
RECAFD
68.2
+4.6
Extra CAFD due to the
refinancing of Manchasol 2
73.1
New RECAFD
Net Carapé effect
+€3.0m
RECAFD announced in
Feb17
68.5
+15.4%vs. IPO RECAFD
of €63.5m
+7.7%vs. Last RECAFD
guidance of €68.5m
RECAFD guidance
post updated regulation
64.2(4.0)
Dec16 Regulatory
Update
The extra CAFD from Carapé and Manchasol 2 refinancing more than compensates the CAFD delay from the regulatory update
CAFD delayed
The tariff economic balance (the so-called tariff deficit) is the main driver of the electricity regulatory policy
Spanish Regulatory Outlook
Net Accum. : c.€30Bn
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Accumulated Anual deficit
All the regulation in the last decade had one objective: try to control the “galloping” increase of the tariff deficit.
Years 2014 and 2015 where the first years with surplus. 2016 is also expected to reach a surplus*
The government estimates to maintain a surplus until 2022**
550 469
110 9 32 13 15 152 151
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Anual surplus
* The estimation for 2016 is base on the Ministerial order of tariffs for 2017
** The surpluses for the period 2018-2019 are based on a draft Ministerial Order 46
Evolution of the tariff deficit (€m) Real and expected future evolution (€m)
As long as there is no tariff deficit in the system, there wont be any reason to reduce the costs of the system (i.e. reduce renewables retribution)
Regulation update calendar
Spanish Regulatory Outlook
47
¿Can be updated? Period Semi-Period
PeriodicityEvery 6 years
(current 14-19)Every 3 years
(current 17-19)
Ri & Ro
Load Factor
Future market prices
Price bands
Standard operating expenses
(and only if inflation is significantly different to 1%)
Reasonable Return
CAPEX
Regulatory life
The YieldCo paradox: Low Risk Cash Flows plus Growth
48
Strong Sponsor
(or outsandingM&A Team)
Capital Increases
Share Price
Premium
High Dividend
DPS Growth
Stable Cash Flows
Excellent Assets
Sustained Accretive Growth
CAFD Growth
Intended delivery: Attractive risk-adjusted total
return
Saeta, ACS & GIP will form a value generating partnership
Virtuous circle …
Long Term Win-Win Relationship
… and ample room for value creation
Development Cost of capital
Yieldco Cost of capital
Asset transactions
Sponsor Value Creation
Saeta Yield Value Creation
Accretive growth visibility for Saeta Yield
ACS reinforces its strategy on the concessional business while focusing on its traditional EPC business
Global agreement: Bow Power to develop new projects
Quicker rotation of new Bow Power assets
Value creation thanks to proper risk allocation
… with benefits for all parties…
EXPLOITATION
O&
M
EP
C
DEVELOPMENT
49
Strong corporate governance
49
Shareholding structure
Bow Power
(including Initial
ROFO assets)
Exclusivity to develop future renewable assets
worldwide
Free Float
ROFO & Call Option Agreement
~24.6%
24.4%
~51.0%~51% ~49%
ACS SI
100%
ROFO Agreement
50
Independent management team combined with a strong corporate governance
Independent and
experienced
management team
Majority of
independent Board
members
For related-parties
decisions, ACS and
GIP directors will
abstain from voting
Proper balance between an independent Saeta Yield and the sponsors maintaining a significant shareholding
Directly employed management team
Full incentive based on Saeta Yield performance
Extensive industry experience
Experienced and International Independent Board Members Honorato Lopez Isla (former CEO of U.Fenosa)
Jose Barreiro Hernandez (former Managing Director at BBVA)
Daniel B. More (former Managing Director at Morgan Stanley)
Paul Jeffery (former Head of European Power, Utilities and Infrastructure at Barclays Capital)
Transitional Services Agreement
Any other future related party decision
RoFO acquisition
O&M contract
Independent:
4
GIP
: 2
51
Disclaimer
52
This presentation has been prepared by Saeta Yield, S.A. (the “Company”) and comprises the slides for a presentation concerning equity story of theCompany, which have not been audited and, consequently, the financials figures are subject to change.
This document does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer or invitation to acquire or subscribe, or a recommendationregarding, any securities of the Company nor should it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any purchase of securities of theCompany according to the Spanish Securities Market Act (“Ley 24/1988, de 28 de julio, del Mercado de Valores”), the Royal Decree 5/2005 (“Real Decreto-Ley5/2005, de 11 de marzo”) and/or the Royal Decree 1310/2005 (“Real Decreto 1310/2005, de 4 de noviembre”) and its implementing regulations.
In addition, this document does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer or invitation to acquire or subscribe, or arecommendation regarding, any securities of the Company nor should it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any purchase ofsecurities of the Company in any other jurisdiction.
Nothing in this document shall be deemed to be binding against, or to create any obligations or commitment on the Company.
The information contained in this presentation does not purport to be comprehensive. None the Company, or their respective directors, officers, employees,advisers or agents accepts any responsibility or liability whatsoever for/or makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the truth, fullness,accuracy or completeness of the information in this presentation (or whether any information has been omitted from the presentation) or any other informationrelating to the Company, its subsidiaries or associated companies, whether written, oral or in a visual or electronic form, and howsoever transmitted or madeavailable or for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
The information in this presentation includes forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations and projections about future events. Theseforward-looking statements, as well as those included in any other information discussed at the presentation to which this document relates, are inherentlyuncertain and are subject to risks and assumptions about the Company and its subsidiaries and investments, including, among other things, the developmentof its business, trends in its operating industry, and future capital expenditures and acquisitions, that could cause actual results to differ materially fromforecasted financial information. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the events in the forward-looking statements may not occur. Norepresentation or warranty is made that any forward-looking statement will come to pass. No one undertakes to publicly update or revise any such forward-looking statement. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that the forecasted financial information is indicative of the future performance or that actual resultswill not differ materially from those presented in the forecasted financial information.
Certain financial and statistical information contained in this document is subject to rounding adjustments. Accordingly, any discrepancies between the totalsand the sums of the amounts listed are due to rounding.
All dividend related matters are dependent on the dividend policy of the Company. All annualized dividend figures included in this presentation do not constitutea commitment of payment from the company, and are calculated as an implicit annual dividend, using the most recent quarterly dividend approved &announced by the Board of Directors, non prorated, multiplied by four.
The information and opinions contained in this presentation are provided as at the date of the presentation and are subject to change. In giving thispresentation none the Company or any of its respective directors, officers, employees, agents, affiliates or advisers, undertakes any obligation to amend,correct or update this presentation or to provide the recipient with access to any additional information that may arise in connection with it.
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