present and future wind energy

8/14/2019 present and future wind energy

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Present and FutureWind Energy in the U.S.

Sandia is a multiprogram

laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company,

for the United States Department of Energys National Nuclear Security Administration

under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Jose ZayasManager, Wind Energy Technology Dept.

Sandia National Laboratories

www.sandia.gov/[email protected]


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History of Wind Energypre - 1970

Prehistoric

Maritime (Greek,

Viking)

Medieval Persian,

Greek, England

20th Century Great

Plains

First Energy

Shortage -- 1974


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History of Wind Energypost - 1970

U.S. DOE develops

significant research

program in

response to theenergy crisis of

1974


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History of Wind EnergyCalifornia Boom

AWEA, CEC, Renewable Energy World, Power Engineering, Earth Policy Institute, UC-Irvine

Installed Capacity

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

MW CA

rest of World

Livermore, CA -1982


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History of Wind EnergyCalifornia and World

Installed Capacity

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

MW

CA

rest of World

AWEA, CEC, Renewable Energy World, Power Engineering, Earth Policy Institute, UC-Irvine


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Current U.S. Installation

Installed capacity in the USACumulative end 2007: 16,879 MW

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

MW

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

24,000

CumulativeMW

Installed MW Forecast Cumulative Cumul. forecast

Wind Energy Today (end of 2007)

Total installed capacity: 16,879

MW (34 States)

5,244 MW installed 2007

45% increase from 2006

Accounted for 30% of new

installed capacity in 2007

Over 9 billion dollars invested in

2007

Installed cost: ~5-8/kWh

Almost 5.5 TW Available Resource

(Total U. S. Electric Capacity

1 TW in 2007)


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The 10 Largest Marketsby end of 2007

Country 2005 2006 2007 Share % Cum. Share %

Germany 18,445 20,652 22,277 23.7% 24%

USA 9,181 11,635 16,879 18.0% 42%Spain 10,027 11,614 14,714 15.7% 57%

India 4,388 6,228 7,845 8.3% 66%

P.R. China 1,264 2,588 5,875 6.2% 72%

Denmark 3,087 3,101 3,088 3.3% 75%Italy 1,713 2,118 2,721 2.9% 78%

France 775 1,585 2,471 2.6% 81%

UK 1,336 1,967 2,394 2.5% 83%

Portugal 1,087 1,716 2,150 2.3% 86%Total 51,303 63,203 80,415

Percent of World 86.4% 85.1% 85.5%Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008

Germany On-Land Potential

100,000 MW

USA on-Land Potential > 1,200,000 MW


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Wind Powers Share of

World Power GenerationGeneration Electricity gen. Electricity from all Wind Power's share

Technology by Wind Power gen. sources of the world's electricity

(BTM-C) (incl. Wind) IEA generation:

Year: TWh TWh %

1996 12.23 13,613 0.09%1997 15.39 13,949 0.11%

1998 21.25 14,340 0.15%

1999 23.18 14,741 0.16%

2000 37.30 15,153 0.25%2001 50.27 15,577 0.32%

2002 64.81 16,233 0.40%

2003 82.24 16,671 0.49%

2004 96.50 17,408 0.55%2005 120.72 17,982 0.67%

2006 152.35 18,576 0.82%

2007 194.16 19,189 1.01%

2012 (forecast) 605.4 22,571 2.68%

2017 (est.) 1573.8 26,549 5.93%

Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 ; World Figures: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007


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Phenomenal GrowthGlobal Wind Industry

Cumulative Global Wind Power DevelopmentActual 1990-2007 Forecast 2008-2012 Prediction 2013-2017

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1990 2007 2012 2017

MW

Prediction Forecast Existing capacitySource: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008

25% annual growth

rate, 1990-2007

(actual)

25% annual growthrate 2008-2012 (BTM)

19% annual growth

rate 2013-2017 (BTM)


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2007 Installed Energy Mix (U.S)


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Wind Basics


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Wind Power Basics

Wind Power output is

proportional to windspeed cubed.

(Drag)

(Lift)59.0

3.0

max

max

3

2

1

=

P

P

P

C

C

VACWindPower

Air DensityRotor Area Wind Speed

1

3i w

V V=

316 1

27 2w

P AV =

Th e Bet z

L im i t


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The Physics of the Power CurveDrives Technology Development

Power in the wind isproportional to wind speed

cubed At best, we can capture 59%

(the Betz limit)

Rated Power governs the sizeand cost of the entire turbine

infrastructure Energy is power multiplied by

the amount of time spent at thatpower level

Capacity Factor is the ratio of

total output to what would havebeen generated if alwaysoperating at Rated Power Meaningful metric

Wind shear puts higher winds at

greater elevation

Facts about Wind Technology


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Performance Enhancement Options

Power Resource

Larger Rotor Taller Tower

Power Curve

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Windspeed (m/s)

Power(kW)

Turbine pow er Betz Pow er

Rotor costsincreasewith diameter cubed,Rotor powergrows withthe diameter squared

Tower costsincrease with heightto the fourthpower

We can only win this battle if we build rotors that are smarter andcomponents that are lighter to beat the squared-cubed law.

Wind, Ener gy

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Windspeed (m/s)

Rayleigh Probability Weibull Probability


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WindPowerClass

ResourcePotential

Wind PowerDensity at 50 mW/m

2

Wind Speedat 50 mm/s

a Wind Speedat 50 mmph

a

34

56

7

FairGood

ExcellentOutstanding

Superb

300 - 400400 - 500

500 - 600600 - 800

800 - 1600

6.4 - 7.0

7.0 - 7.5

7.5 - 8.0

8.0 - 8.8

8.8 - 11.1

14.3 - 15.7

15.7 - 16.8

16.8 - 17.9

17.9 - 19.7

19.7 - 24.8

aWind speeds are based on a Weibull k value of 2.0

Wind Power Classification

U.S. Wind Resource Maps

Copyright 2008 3TIER, Inc. All RightsReserved. For permission to reproduce or

distribute: [email protected]
http://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://navigator.awstruewind.com/http://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://navigator.awstruewind.com/http://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://navigator.awstruewind.com/http://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://navigator.awstruewind.com/http://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://navigator.awstruewind.com/http://navigator.awstruewind.com/http://navigator.awstruewind.com/http://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.htmlhttp://www.3tiergroup.com/http://www.3tiergroup.com/http://www.3tiergroup.com/http://www.3tiergroup.com/http://navigator.awstruewind.com/http://www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.html


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Power Curve and Wind SpeedDistribution at Low Wind Site


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Current Technology and Energy Cost


18/38

Wind Power

Small Wind

(1-1000 kW)

American Wind Energy Associationwww.awea.org

Utility-Scale Wind(1-5 MW)

1

2


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Current Wind Turbine Systems

Hub

BladeTower

Gear Box

Generator

Pitch System

Yaw System

Conventional Drive Train

Direct Drive System


20/38

Typical TurbineInstallation

Gamesa (Spain)

GE (US)

Enercon

(Germany)

Vestas

(Denmark)


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Wind IndustryTrends & Costs

Size 1.5-5.0 MW

Towers: 65-100meters

Blades: 34-60meters

Weight: 150-500tons

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

1980 1984 1988 1991 1995 2000 2005

~5-8 cents/kWh

Cost per kWh


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T i l Wi d F


23/38

Typical Wind FarmComponents

Turbine

Foundations

Electrical collection system

Power quality conditioning

Substation

SCADA

Roads

Maintenance facilities


24/38

Offshore Wind Background

Shallow

Water

Technology

Transitional

Depth

Technology

Deepwater

Floating

Technology

Land-based

Technology

0m-30m

30m-60m

60m-900m


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Offshore Wind

Technical challenges, higher costs

Close to load centers

1000 MW installed in Europe Limited shallow depths in U.S.

Proposals in U.S.

Cape Cod (Cape Wind)

Long Island (LIPA)


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Understand External Conditions To

Define the Design Conditions


27/38

Problems and Problems


28/38

Production Fluctuates

Load fluctuates significantly

Even an all-fossil power system must ramp upand down to follow the load

Day-ahead wind

forecasting

Wind is a

negative load Effects ramp

rates

EIA: 20% Wind Energy by 2030


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Bird Collisions & Mortality

Problem documented in Altamont Pass

One of nations largest concentrations of federally-protected raptors

Abundant prey base (migration path) Heavy year-round raptor use


30/38

Acoustic Emission -Noise

AWEA

Mod 1

Boone, NC

20% Wi d E


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20% Wind EnergyU.S. DOE Report, May 2008

AddressesScalability


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Installed Capacity as ofJanuary 2008 = 16,904 MW

305 GW

20% Wind Scenario20% Wind Scenario wouldrequire large ramp-up of wind

Scenario Installed Capacity vs


33/38

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Annual GW Installed

Actual installations

2007: 5,329 MW Projected installations2008: 7,500 MW*

2

006

2

008

2

010

2

012

2014

2016

2

018

2

020

2

022

A

nnualInstalledCapacity

(GW)

Scenario Installed Capacity vs.Current Installed Capacity

Capacity additions in 20% Scenario

Source*: AWEA, 2008

CO Emissions from the


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0 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

No New Wind Scenario CO2 emissions20% Wind Scenario CO2 emissions

USCAP path to 80% below todays levels by 2050CO2E

missionsin

theElectricSector

(millionmetrictons)

CO2Emissions from the

Electricity Sector

Ch ll f T h l


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Challenges for Technologyfrom the Analysis Results

Massive growth ininstallations

~12GW in 2006 over 300GW in 2030

Widely distributedacross the nation

Many high wind sites

Substantial installationin moderate resourceareas

Some offshore isneeded

Performance is critical

Capital cost

Capacity Factor

O&M


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Benefits of Wind Power

Economic DevelopmentLease payments, tax revenue

Cost Stability

Resource DiversityDomestic, inexhaustible, reduced risk

Environmental no CO2

, SO2

, NOx

, mercury

no mining or drilling no waste

no water use

EIA: 20% Wind Energy by 2030

World-Wide Growth in Energy Demand Will Require


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A complete portfolio of supply options: renewables, fossil, nuclear Highly efficient and environmentally benign technologies

Fault-tolerant, self-healing infrastructures

Enhance physical and cyber security and safety

World-Wide Growth in Energy Demand Will Require

all Available Energy Technology Options

Integrated into a System


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Thank You!!!Thank You!!!

we could generate up to 20% of our

electricity needs through wind

President George W. Bush - February 21, 2006

present and future wind energy

Documents