1

Predicting and Preparing For Emerging Learning Technologies

Brian Kelly, UK Web Focus

A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference

Predicting and Preparing For Emerging

Learning TechnologiesCILIP West Midlands 2017 Annual Members Day, Birmingham on 10 Feb 2017

Brian KellyIndependent researcher/consultant at UK Web Focus

Ltd.

UK Web Focus at UKOLN, 1997-2013

Innovation Advocate at CETIS, 2013-2015Contact DetailsBrian Kelly

Email: ukwebfocus@gmail.com

Twitter: @briankelly

Blog: http://ukwebfocus.com/

Slides and further information available at

http://ukwebfocus.com/events/cilip-west-midlands-2017/

UK Web Focus Event hashtag: #MembersDay17

View slides & abstract at http://bitly.com/cilipwm17-kelly

Tweet comments with #MembersDay17

33

You are free to:

copy, share, adapt, or re-mix;

photograph, film, or broadcast;

blog, live-blog, or post video of

this presentation provided that:You attribute the work to its author and respect the rights

and licences associated with its components.

Idea from Cameron Neylon c

Slide Concept by Cameron Neylon, who has waived all copyright and related or neighbouring rights. This slide only CCZero.

Social Media Icons adapted with permission from originals by Christopher Ross. Original images are available under GPL at:

http://www.thisismyurl.com/free-downloads/15-free-speech-bubble-icons-for-popular-websites

Please tweet!

Your comments

may be useful

in evaluation &

subsequent

reflections on

this talk

AbstractWe continue to see developments in online services which provide

both opportunities and challenges for librarians. The implications of

technical developments on library services is made difficult to predict

in light of financial, political and cultural uncertainties.

Brian Kelly will describe the methodology used by the NMC (New

Media Consortium) for the NMC Horizon Report > 2014 Library Edition,

NMC Horizon Report > 2017 Higher Education Edition and

the forthcoming NMC Horizon Report > 2017 Library Edition for

identifying technological developments likely to be important.

Brian will then introduce a methodology for developing plans for

making use of such developments within the institution.

Learning Outcomes:

1. Understand limitations of approaches to future-gazing

2. Learn about future-gazing methodology used by NMC

3. Hear about application of methodologies across library sectors

4. Be aware of resources which can be used locally4

Contents

Introduction

• About me

Identifying Developments

• The NMC Horizon Report for Libraries & the Delphi process:

What are the major technology trends?

Beyond the technology trends – the drivers accelerating technology adoption

Beyond the technology trends & drivers – the challenges impeding technology adoption

• Carrying out your own future-gazing & planning work

Institutional Planning

• Preparing for the implications

• Conclusions 5

Intr

od

uc

tio

n

6

About Me

Brian Kelly

• UK Web Focus at UKOLN from 1996-2013

• Innovative Advocate at Cetis from 2013-2015

• Now independent consultant

• Interests in promoting use of innovative technologies

and practices in higher education & library sectors

In recent years:

• Gave talks on planning for the future at ILI

(Internet Librarian International) & JIBS events

• Delivered “planning for the future” half-day

workshops at international library conferences

in South Africa, London & Bath

• Presented paper on “Reflecting on Yesterday,

Understanding Today, Planning for Tomorrow”

paper at Umbrella 2013

• Invited expert for NMC Horizon Report, Academic Libraries 2014

Intr

od

uc

tio

n

“Experts”

Today’s environment:

• Experts are being criticised

and growth in terms such as:

• “Post-truth”

• “Alternative facts”

7

Critiquing Brexiteers / Trumpeters

is easy – but what if there is

some validity to argument?!

The real reason that we don‘t trust

experts anymore, Julie Shaw, The

Independent, 8 July 2016

xx

The real reason that we don‘t trust experts anymore, Julia Shaw, The Independent, 8 July 2016

Predicting the Future: The Risks

Risks in attempting to predict the future:

• We get it wrong

– the future didn’t materialise

• We get it wrong

– we were too cautious

• Futurologists have biases

8

Pre

dic

tio

ns

Looking at the Futurologists

• Gartner report

9

Gartner

Beware vested

interests which

may be

threatened by

implications of

predictions

10

Gartner May Be Too

Scared To Say It, But the

PC Is Dead,

Mark Hachman,

Readwrite Web, 5 April

2013

We commission

reports from

experts in the field

11PDF

We commission

reports from

experts in the field

12

… is an information professional who has specialized

in the fields of electronic information provision for over

20 years.

In recent years, he has specialized in metadata for

digital libraries, in which capacity he is a member of

the editorial board for the METS (Metadata Encoding

and Transmission Standard) standard for digital library

metadata.

Invention, Innovation, Improvement

From Wikipedia:

Invention: the creation of the idea or method itself. Innovation: the use of a better and, as a result, novel idea or method.

Improvement: doing current activities better.

Assertion 1:

Our focus is on innovation and improvement

Assertion 2:

Innovations and improvements probably already known to us (forget inventions such as the Web!)

Assertion 3:

You will learn about relevant innovations and improvements from your peers

13

A Collaborative Approach

We could use Twitter

14

Tweet your ideas

with event hashtag

I think teleporting could have implications for libraries in the future!

#MembersDay17

Teleporting could have implications for libraries as people won’t be put off

from visiting when it’s raining! #MembersDay17

and implications

for libraries

We would therefore need larger physical spaces for the teleporting visitors to

the library #MembersDay17

Discuss alternative

implications …

So maybe the books could be teleported. Would we need a physical library

building #MembersDay17

14

& issues such as legal

implications, business

models, …

What about the legal implication? Border control? Which VAT rate to use?

Importing banned book? … #MembersDay17 #wtf

Feel free to add

implications for users

…

Open collaborative approaches can help minimise biases, provide fresh

insights, … but Twitter probably isn’t the best tool for this!

THE Article

Article which summarised the

“6 key trends accelerating

technology adoption in

higher education in 2015”

published in Times Higher

Education on 23 Feb 2015

Based on the NMC Horizon

Report: 2015 Higher

Education Edition

15

About the NMC Horizon Library Study

16

NMC Horizon Report, 2014:

Library edition:

• Published in Aug 2014

• Based on ideas from panel

of experts

• Ideas refined using Delphi

process

• Report available under

Creative Commons licence

Your interests:

• What are the technology trends? What are the implications for me?

• What is the ‘Delphi process’? Can I use it?

NMC Panel

Panel composed of 47 library and technology experts from 16 countries on five continents (including 3 from UK)

17

Note NMC Horizon Library Report 2017 is still being prepared (due for publication at ACRL 2017 on 23 March 2017)

Short-Term Technology Trends

What technology trends did the NMC Horizon panel identify?

18

Seven key categories were identified:

Te

ch

no

log

y T

ren

ds

Short-Term Technology Trends

Two areas of importance in the short-term (<1 year to adoption) were identified and prioritised:

19

“electronic publishing is redefining the tools between print and digital,

still image and video, passive and interactive”

Report gives examples of innovative uses e.g. ANU Press, established

in 2003 to explore & enable new modes of scholarly publishing.

“the way we think about software itself is changing, and whole industries

are adjusting to a new world in which sophisticated but simple tools

routinely sell for 99 cents or are completely free”

Te

ch

no

log

y T

ren

ds

What’s Missing?

Let’s use the Delphi process (abbreviated version!):

• What significant learning technology trends do you

feel will have an impact in the short term (< 1 year)

• Tweet (or shout) your ideas!

• Session chair will record ideas

This is an example of crowd-sourcing ideas from a group

of experts

20

Vote on two ideas which you feel are most important:

• Area 1

• Area 2

This is an example of how crowd-sourced ideas can be

refined and prioritised

Te

ch

no

log

y T

ren

dshashtag: #membersday17

Medium-Term Drivers

What trends driving technology adoption in the medium

term (3-5 years?) did the NMC Horizon panel identify?

21

Trends are sorted into three movement-related

categories: (1) fast-moving trends that will realize their

impact in the next 1-2 years and two categories of

slower-moving trends that will realize their impact within

(2) 3-5 or (3) 5+ years.

After summarising technologies important in short-term,

lets look at medium-term drivers of technology adoption

Te

ch

no

log

y D

rive

rs

Medium-Term Drivers

Two drivers of technology adoption in medium term (3-5 years to adoption) were identified and prioritised:

22

“Once limited to print-based journals and monographic series, scholarly

communications now reside in networked environments and can be

accessed through an expansive array of publishing platforms”.

“Academic & research libraries are gradually embracing the movement

toward openness as the Internet has opened the floodgates of

information and scientific knowledge”.

Te

ch

no

log

y D

rive

rs

What’s Missing?

Let’s use the Delphi process:

• What significant drivers of learning technology

adoption do you feel will have an impact in the

medium term (3-5 years)

• Tweet (or shout) your ideas!

• Session chair will record ideas

This is a further example of crowd-sourcing ideas from a

group of experts

23

Vote on two ideas which you feel are most important:

• Area 1

• Area 2

This is a further example of how crowd-sourced ideas can

be refined based on your experiences

Te

ch

no

log

y D

rive

rshashtag: #membersday17

The Challenges

What challenges impeding technology adoption in academic and research libraries did the NMC Horizon panel identify?

24

These were classed as:

• Solvable Challenges: those that we

understand and know how to solve

• Difficult Challenges: Those that

we understand but for which

solutions are elusive

• Wicked Challenges: Those that are

complex to even define, much less

address

Th

e C

ha

lle

ng

es

The Challenges

Two difficult challenges were identified:

25

“It is important for these new digital data sets to be preserved alongside

the research derived from them for future use and in longitudinal

studies, but this presents a perpetual challenge for library acquisition

and archiving practices as formats continue to evolve”.

“.. advents in Internet technology are fostering changes in patron

behavior, challenging libraries to either participate in the online

knowledge exchange or risk becoming obsolete over time. ”.

Th

e C

ha

lle

ng

es

What’s Missing?

Let’s use the Delphi process:

• What:

Solvable Difficult Wicked

challenges are missing?

• Tweet (or shout) your ideas!

• Session chair will record ideas

26

Choose one idea per category:

• Solvable

• Difficult

• Wicked

This is a further example of how crowd-sourced ideas can

be prioritised based on your personal/institutional context

Th

e C

ha

lle

ng

es

hashtag: #membersday17

Review

NMC Horizon report:

• Provides insights into technological trends,

driver & barriers for library

• Open methodology which caters for experts

highlighting their own particular interests

But:

• It may not be applicable to your specific

context

• It doesn’t address “What do I need to do

next?”

27

Re

vie

w

The Full NMC Horizon Report

NMC Horizon report

for Libraries 2014:

• 50 pages

• 18 topics

6 key trends

6 significant

challenges

6 important

technologies

28

2

1

3

Tools for Futurists

Some tools which can help you to predict the future:

• Quick surveys

• Observing recent developments

• Trip reports from conferences (cf Sarah Purcell)

Not covered in talk (ideas for reinterpreting the present

and providing fresh insights):

• The History Of The Web Backwards, UK Web

Focus blog, 19 Nov 2007

• Reversible, Reverse History and Side-by-Side

Storytelling, OUseful blog, 22 March 2010

29

To

ols

The Future Is Already Here!

Hands up if you have:

Used a mobile device for work-related purposes in bed

Options: Yes, No or I’m indecisive!

30

“20% of the iPad users spent time with their iPad in bed” 2010

Informal survey

(Twitter & blog post),

March 2012

“The future is already

here - it's just not very

evenly distributed”

What are the implications

of this ‘platform’?

To

ols

Trip Reports

• What topics are covered at conferences

• What topics interested my peers

31

To

ols

Our favourite sessions

Louise Drumm, from Glasgow Caledonian

University, presented ‘Connections between

theory and practice: rhizomatic teaching with

digital technologies’ where she discussed the …

findings of a doctoral research project which

asked the question ‘what role does theory play in

university teaching with digital technologies?’

Andrew Raistrick and Steven Bentley, from the

University of Huddersfield, discussed their new

approach to staff development courses in ‘Flipping

heck! Be careful what you wish for‘.

Manchester Metropolitan University’s presentation,

‘An experiment in open-access, micro-learning for

educational technology training’ gave an

interesting look at how they are engaging

academic colleagues in technology enhanced

learning training.

https://ilead.cumbria.ac.uk/

What Did You Notice Recently?

“What did you notice for the first time today (recently)?”

• Can be important for trend spotting

• May signify that something is becoming mainstream

that you hadn’t appreciated before (WiFi on bus, …)

32

Amazon locker (Feb 2013)

Video on underground

(Dec 2008)

To

ols

Thanks to

Tony Hirst

View slides & abstract at http://bitly.com/cilipwm17-kelly

Tweet comments with #MembersDay17

Action Brief Statement

Technology Will Not Defeat Us: Next Steps

Having identified future developments of relevance to

the organisation, you will now need to convince senior

management of the potential.

From the Hyperlinked Library MOOC

Planning template from assignment 2:

Action Brief Statement:

Convince ______ that by _______ they will ________

which

will ________ because _______.

33Acknowledgements to Michael Stephens and Kyle Jones

This tool was used in a number of Planning for Future workshops

(with voting and prizes)

Pla

nn

ing

Risks

The Need to Explicitly Address Risks

From “Risks and Opportunities Framework for

Exploiting the Social Web” by Kelly & Oppenheim:

• Summarise risks

• Summary risks of not adopting

technology

• Summarise strategies for minimising

(or accepting) risks

• Evidence base

• Document biases and prejudices

34

Can you innovate without taking risks?

Pla

nn

ing

Warning From The Past

Tim Berners-Lee didn’t let evidence of the popularity of Gopher hinder development of the Web

35

In 1993 Gopher was the safe bet for an important technological innovation

The Serenity Prayer

• The Serenity Prayer

36Serenity Prayer

Scenario Planning for Addressing the

Unexpected

37

Commercialisation

Devolved ownership

The niche librarian

Everyone’s an IT expert

Possible scenarios

for libraries and the

Cloud

Steady as she goes

Outline challenges and opportunities for libraries

based on an expanded version of these scenarios)

Everyone’s a librarian

Pla

nn

ing

Acknowledge & Engage With

Challenges

Need to acknowledge unpleasant truth and engage with

realities:

• Trump Brexit

• Post-truth Privacy

• Commercialisation (commercial providers of HE)

• Aging work force ….

38

Pla

nn

ing

Difficult Challenges:

• Truth, trust, advocacy

• Existential challenges

• ‘Librarian’ brand

Thinking the Unthinkable

When does ‘engage’ mean

‘challenge’ and when ’accept’?

Do it For Yourself

Do it for yourself!

• Slides, exercises, etc. for half-day workshop

available under a Creative Commons licence

39

Workshop held at SAOIM 2014 (South Africa) & ELAG 2014 (Bath) conferences.

See:

• http://ukwebfocus.com/events/saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/

• http://ukwebfocus.com/events/elag-2014-preparing-for-the-future-workshop/

As described

Institutional planning

Pla

nn

ing

Further Reading

NMC Horizon

Reports:

• Libraries 2017

Wiki (report in

March 2017)

• Higher Education

2017 (Preview)

• Higher Education

2016

• Libraries 2015

40

TEF? TEF+Libraries

Conclusions

We have:

• Seen examples of technology trends, drivers &

challenges as agreed by NMC Library panel

• Learnt about the NMC’s Delphi processes

• Contributed our perspectives

• Voted on the ideas provided

• Heard about follow-up approaches

Next steps:

• Read the NMC Horizon Report and use it to

inform planning processes

• Implement an institutional event to help prepare

your organisation for the future (run it annually?)

• Invite an independent consultant to facilitate 41

Questions?

42