predictability in science: accuracy and limitations …€¦ · · 2015-04-10the pontifical...

THE PONTIFICAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Plenary Session on

PREDICTABILITY IN SCIENCE:ACCURACY AND LIMITATIONS

3-6 November 2006

VATICAN CITY 2006

Introduction p. Background Note p. Programme p.

Commemoration p. Abstracts p. Memorandum p. 141187

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As I wrote in the encyclical Deus Caritas Est, at the source ofChristian existence – and thus also at the origin of our witness asbelievers – is not an ethical decision or a great idea, but the en-counter with the person of Jesus Christ, ‘who gives life a new hori-zon and with this its decisive direction’ (n. 1). The fecundity of thisencounter manifests itself in a particular and creative way in thecurrent human and cultural context as well, above all in relation-ship with the reason that has given rise to the modern sciences andto the related technologies.

A fundamental characteristic of the latter of these is, in fact,the systematic employment of the tools of mathematics in order towork with nature and to place its immense energies at our service.Mathematics as such is a creation of our intelligence: the correspon-dence between its structures and the real structures of the universe– which is the premise for all the modern scientific and technologi-cal developments, already formulated explicitly by Galileo Galileiwith the famous assertion that the book of nature is written inmathematical language – arouses our admiration and raises a greatquestion. It implies, in fact, that the universe itself is structured inan intelligent manner, in such a way that there exists a profoundcorrespondence between our subjective reason and reason as objec-tified in nature. So it becomes inevitable to ask if there must notexist a single originating intelligence, which would be the commonsource of both the one and the other.

And so it is reflection on the development of the sciences whichitself brings us back to the creator Logos. This reverses the tenden-cy to give primacy to the irrational, to chance and necessity, bring-ing back into focus our intelligence and freedom. On these bases, itagain becomes possible to expand the spaces of our rationality, toreopen it to the great questions of truth and goodness, to bring to-gether theology, philosophy, and science, in full respect for theirproper methods and their reciprocal autonomy, but also in theawareness of the intrinsic unity that holds them together.

This is a task that stands before us, a fascinating adventure inwhich it is worthwhile to exert oneself, in order to give a new im-pulse to the culture of our time and to restore the full citizenship ofChristianity within it.

The programmatic address from Pope Benedict XVI to the National Con-ference of the Church in Italy, 19 October 2006.

In its last two business meetings the PASCouncil discussed several alternative topicsthat had been proposed for the next Plenary

Session of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences inNovember 2006. On the basis of these delibera-tions the Council has chosen the theme of ‘Pre-dictability in Science’. This theme is situated atthe interphase between fundamental science andits practical applications to the benefit of humanbeings. We will welcome contributions on scien-tific predictions of impending dangers, such asearthquakes, on the outlook for climate change,on the analysis of nuclear and other technolo-gies, in the role of prediction in the medical sci-ences, and on many other scientific predictionsand modelling approaches that frequently alsohave their applications with impact on culturaland socio-political developments.

According to Webster’s dictionary the wordprediction has two meanings: (1) a predicting orbeing predicted, and (2) a prophecy. Obviously,only the first meaning applies to our proposedtheme. Therefore the word science in the title is

The idea behind this meeting is that a greatdeal is done within science which only sci-entists would deal with; but there are, in-

creasingly, many other aspects of science whichhave public implications, that figure extensivelyin the audiovisual and print media. With regardto the latter, a public understanding of accuracyand uncertainty in the predictions, arising fromscientific knowledge, become important.

Most of these aspects of general public inter-est relate to complex phenomena; and some re-late to ethical issues that could have political, so-cial and economic ramifications. For example,issues relating to weather prediction, climatechange, prediction of earthquakes, the possibili-ty of major natural disasters such as an asteroidhitting the earth, pandemics from the sars virus,bird flu and the like that could cross over from

important. It is not our role to debate on prophe-cies. Predictions on a scientific basis can bemore or less accurate and have in most casestheir intrinsic limitations. We therefore considerexpressing this in a subheading. The proposedtheme would then read as follows: ‘Predictabili-ty in Science: Accuracy and Limitations of Pre-dictions based on Scientific Knowledge’.

We expect that all scientific disciplines cancontribute with selected examples to a wide de-bate on scientific predictions and their relevanceto society. Thereby, the awareness of natural lim-itations that are inherent to many predictionsplays an important role and it can insure thetrust in science in interactions between scienceand the civil society. The distinction between cer-tainties and uncertainties has since long beenmade by many scientists presenting scientificknowledge, theories and models on natural de-velopments. A candid discussion on this themeby the Pontifical Academy of Sciences can rep-resent a clarifying view for both the scientificcommunity and the general public.

animals to people, all figure in societal discus-sions these days. In most of these cases, the is-sue is that whilst there is a very good scientificbasis at the initial stages, as one proceeds downthe line, to predictions of relevance to society,many aspects such as complexity, non-equilibri-um phenomena, chaos and the like come in in-troducing uncertainties in the predictions.

Thus, one has clear-cut observations on thecarbon dioxide concentrations in the atmos-phere and how they have increased with time.One knows that carbon dioxide is a greenhousegas; and there are also other greenhouse gases.The increase in their concentrations will resultin a greenhouse effect, which will cause a rise inglobal temperature. Sources, pathways, sinksand budgets at each stage will define what ulti-mately happens.

INTRODUCTIONWERNER ARBER & NICOLA CABIBBO

Predictability in Science:Accuracy and Limitations

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BACKGROUND NOTEM. GOVIND KUMAR MENON

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Predictability in Science. Accuracy and Limitations Background Note

These will have implications on sea levels,change in climate patterns, extreme events inprecipitation, availability of water etc. At eachstage there is a greater degree of uncertainty,and an increasingly poorer predictability andlack of consensus. Society gets confused andbegins to doubt whether scientists know whatthey are talking about e.g. the fun many haveat the expense of meteorologists. When one getsto the human dimensions of global change, be-havioural change etc come into the picture, e.ginvolving economics, psychology and social be-haviour, human dislike for measures that de-mand lifestyle changes. This is the type of prob-lem dealt with by the Inter-Governmental Pan-el on Climate Change.

The above somewhat lengthy real life exam-ple was only to illustrate the nature of the prob-lem because the public generally assumes thatscience can be certain and give accurate answers.

There is then the possibility of climate engi-neering to reduce greenhouse effects. But thiscould raise ethical issues related to tamperingwith a natural system and predictability of thehazards involved in this.

There is the issue relating to genetically mod-ified organisms and their large scale use in soci-ety. There are many who are opposed to this onthe grounds that one would not know whatmight ultimately happen; and more particularlyin relation to the environment.

There is the broad area of environment andecology where society seldom looks at the pricebeing paid for certain pathways of development.

For example, what is the price to be attached tothe ecological services provided by water?

Today, there are very significant advances inmodelling capabilities and one needs to evaluatethe accuracy and limitations in prediction basedon these techniques. While it would be possiblewith increasing knowledge and capabilities tohave predictions in many areas, these would nev-er be 100% correct, and one would have to livewith uncertainty. In fact, it is this uncertaintythat makes further development of science excit-ing, because there is so much more to know andto understand.

However, there is also the question of deci-sions that have to be taken by governments andsociety at any point in time for which advicefrom the scientific community is called for. Thiswould bring out the importance of the precau-tionary principle, to avoid getting into a situa-tion that might lead to catastrophic events.

It is felt that the intrinsic issue of scientificuncertainty, particularly in complex, non-equi-librium systems, and limits of predictabilityneed to be discussed from the viewpoint of vari-ous angles. It is felt that apart from natural sci-entists it would be important to have some dis-tinguished thinkers who deal with dimensionsthat human society is normally concerned withe.g. economic, social and behavioural aspects al-so participate in this plenary session. This is be-cause many of these areas are characterised bynon-equilibrium complex situations and are al-so increasingly using the techniques developedin the pure sciences for their analysis.

9:00 WelcomeProf. Nicola Cabibbo, President of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences

9:05 The Subject of the MeetingProf. Werner Arber, Coordinator of the Meeting and PAS Academician

9:15 Commemoration ofProf. Richard Southwood by Prof. Raymond Hide

9:30 Self-Presentation ofProf. Theodor W. Hänsch • Prof. Ingo Potrykus

10:15 Coffee Break

Session ICHAOS AND PREDICTIONS IN PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY

Chairperson: Prof. Werner Arber

10:45 Prof. Rudolf MuradianPredictions in Astrophysics and CosmologyDiscussion

11:30 Prof. Antonino ZichichiComplexity and Predictions at the Fundamental Level of Scientific KnowledgeDiscussion

12:30 Lunch at the Casina Pio IV

Session IIGEOSCIENCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL EVOLUTION

Chairperson: Prof. Nicole M. Le Douarin

15:00 Prof. Vladimir Keilis-BorokPredictability of Complex Systems, with Special Reference to Geological DisastersDiscussion

16:00 Prof. Veerabhadran RamanathanGlobal Warming Science: Predictions, Surprises and Insurmountable UncertaintiesDiscussion

17:00 Coffee Break

17:30 Prof. Mario J. MolinaPredictability of Science and Climate ChangeDiscussion

18:30 Prof. Paul J. CrutzenAn Example of Geo-Engineering: Cooling DownEarth’s Climate by Sulfur Emissions in the StratosphereDiscussion

19:30 Dinner at the Casina Pio IV

FRIDAY, 3 NOVEMBER 2006

13:30 Council Meeting


THURSDAY, 2 NOVEMBER 2006

PROGRAMMEPredictability in Science:

Accuracy and Limitations

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Session IIIPREDICTIONS IN THE LIFE SCIENCES

Chairperson: Prof. William D. Phillips

9:00 Prof. Rafael VicuñaAttempts to Predict a Minimal GenomeDiscussion

10:00 Prof. Umberto VeronesiThe New Possibilities of Prediction and Prevention of CancerDiscussion

11:00 Coffee Break

11:30 Prof. Werner ArberStochastic Genetic Variations and their Role in Biological EvolutionDiscussion


Session IV PHILOSOPHICAL AND SOCIETAL ASPECTSChairperson: Prof. M. Govind Kumar Menon

14:00 Prof. Jean-Michel MaldaméEpistemological Study of the Vocabulary of Prediction in Science and in TheologyDiscussion

15:00 Prof. Michael HellerPredictability, Measurement and Cosmic TimeDiscussion

16:00 Coffee Break

16:30 Prof. Jürgen MittelstrassEpistemological Remarks on the Concept of PredictabilityDiscussion

17:30 Prof. Antonio BattroPredictability: Prophecy, Prognosis and Prediction. A Study in NeuroeducationDiscussion


SATURDAY, 4 NOVEMBER 2006

SUNDAY, 5 NOVEMBER 2006

8:30 Departure from Domus Sanctae Marthae to visit the Papal Villa at Castel Gandolfo

10:00 Holy Mass at Castel Gandolfo

11:00 Presentation of the Pius XI Medal to Prof. Ashoke Sen

13:00 Lunch at the Papal Villa

15:00 Departure from Castel Gandolfo and return to the Domus Sanctae Marthae


Predictability in Science. Accuracy and Limitations Programme

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Predictability in Science. Accuracy and Limitations Programme

Session VRESEARCH PROCEDURES: THEORIES AND THEIR VERIFICATION, SERENDIPITY

Chairperson: Prof. Paul J. Crutzen

9:00 Prof. William D. PhillipsWhen Results are Better than Predicted: A Case StudyDiscussion

10:00 Prof. Michael SelaOn Unpredictability in Research ProjectsDiscussion

11:00 Fr. Prof. Stanley L. JakiScience as Prediction and the Unpredictability of ScienceDiscussion

11:30 Audience with the Holy Father Pope Benedict XVI


Session VIPUBLIC PERCEPTION AND POLICY IN THE CONTEXT OF UNCERTAINTY

Chairperson: Prof. Nicola Cabibbo

15:00 Prof. M. Govind Kumar MenonA Short Background NoteDiscussion

16:00 General Discussion

16:45 Coffee Break

17:30 Closed Session for Academicians


MONDAY, 6 NOVEMBER 2006

Commemorative address by Raymond Hide in honourof Academician Thomas Richard Edmund Southwood(20 June 1931-26 October 2005) Elected to the Pontifi-cal Academy of Sciences 1992

T. Richard Edmund Southwood (1931-2005)

Emeritus Linacre Professor of Zoology and formerVice-Chancellor of the University of Oxford, Sir

Richard Southwood (hereafter RS) died in Oxford on26 October 2005. By his own account (see his entry inthe 2004 Yearbook of the Pontifical Academy of Sci-ences), his main scientific contributions were in ecolo-gy with a strong bias to entomology, and environmen-

tal sciences and policy. A Fellow of the Royal Society,during his distinguished career he received many otherhonours in recognition not only of his influential re-search and teaching in zoology but also of his activitiesas an outstanding university administrator and valuedgovernment advisor. He became a member of the Pon-tifical Academy of Sciences in 1992.

RS was born on 20 June 1931 in the town ofNorthfleet in the County of Kent in south-east Eng-land, where his father owned a dairy farm, and he re-ceived his secondary education at the nearbyGravesend Grammar School, which he attended from1942-49. He then went on to Imperial College Londonwhere in 1955 he obtained a PhD degree on the basis

COMMEMORATIONPredictability in Science:


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Stochastic Genetic Variationsand their Role in Biological Evolution

Iwill explain that spontaneous genetic variationsrepresent the driving force of biological evolution.

New genetic variations are principally stochastic andthey occur quite rarely so that genetic stability of or-ganisms is largely insured. Despite this widely ac-cepted situation, genetic variation depends on activ-ities of products of so-called evolution genes. Someof these activities act as variation generators andwork at most with statistical reproducibility; the re-sult of their action cannot be predicted from case tocase. Other enzymatic evolution activities act asmodulators of the frequencies of genetic variation.The products of evolution genes act in cooperation

of research on time trends and patterns of species di-versity, making use of the long-term data sets on in-sects held at the Rothamsted Experimental Stationnear Harpenden, where he met and married his futurewife Alison Langley.

During his subsequent career, he served first onthe staff of Imperial College, where he became Profes-sor of Zoology and Applied Entomology and Chair-man of the Division of Life Sciences, and then, from1979-93, as Linacre Professor of Zoology at the Uni-versity of Oxford. His outstanding skills as an admin-istrator from which Imperial College London and theDepartment of Zoology at Oxford University had al-ready greatly benefited led to his appointment as Vice-Chancellor of the University (from 1989-93). A Vice-Chancellor’s many duties include fund-raising on be-half of the University, another activity in which RS en-joyed notable success.

Outside the University RS served with distinctionas chairman of an international conference held in1986 on Biological Effects of Low-Level Radiation andalso of several U. K. government bodies also dealingwith important and politically sensitive issues, includ-ing the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution(1981-86), National Radiological Protection Board(1985-94), Working Party on Bovine Spongiform En-cephalopathy (1988-89), Round Table on SustainableDevelopment (1995-99) and Interagency Committee onGlobal Environmental Change (1997-2000).

According to one close colleague, RS was ‘one ofthe most notable ecologists and zoologists of his gener-ation (but) he leaves an even more lasting legacythrough his superb skills as a mentor and builder of ac-ademic departments -first at Imperial College London,and later at Oxford University- whose distinguished in-dividuals added up to more than the sum of their parts.A disproportionate number of the world’s top ecologi-

cal researchers today are British, and almost all of themwere directly influenced by him’.

Notwithstanding his many other duties at Oxford,for eighteen years he found the time to give stimulat-ing undergraduate lectures there. These provided thebasis of his last book The Story of Life, published bythe Oxford University Press in 2002 (paperback 2003).The excerpts from this ‘masterly overview impressivein depth, breadth and clarity of the origin and evolu-tion of life’ that were selected for presentation at amoving memorial service held last February in theChapel of Merton College Oxford to celebrate the lifeof this remarkable man were the opening and closingparagraphs of the book. For their eloquence and thechallenges they present to all of us they are worth re-peating here.

‘Consider the amazing variety of life today: thegreat herds of animals that roam the African plains,the shoals of fish that teem in coral reefs or the flocksof penguins that huddle on the Antarctic ice. Yet whatwe see around us is but one still from the film(“movie”) of life, a glimpse that we can only under-stand if we know what came before. This is the bookof the film of all life’.

‘Will humans having made so much progress byincreasing the carrying capacity of their habitat final-ly end by overexploiting the world and giving thekaleidoscope another shake? But life is flexible, andwe can be sure that the frame of the kaleidoscope willbe filled with a new pattern of colours. In contrast,we, in our prodigious numbers, are locked by our agri-cultural and commercial activities into the current cli-matic regime. Can political stability survive the stress-es that will arise when this changes or will we doomourselves? We carry a burden of responsibility to learnfrom our knowledge of the world and its past. Time isshort, but we do have the ability to change’.

with a number of nongenetic elements that dependlargely on intrinsic properties of matter. Conse-quences of these insights on our world view will bediscussed.

WERNER ARBER

Predictability: Prophecy, Prognosisand Prediction. A Study in Neuroeducation

Predictability can be studied in a cognitive space de-fined by three independent parameters, Prophecy,

Prognosis and Prediction. Prophecy is based on pro-jections into possible worlds, Prognosis on anticipa-tions in the actual world and Prediction on the mod-

ABSTRACTSPredictability in Science:


Predictability in Science. Accuracy and Limitations Commemoration

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elling of constructed worlds. In this dynamical spacepredictability could be represented as a path in time,with many loops and twists during a scientific quest.In order to illustrate this point I will try to follow myown scientific experience of the complex path of pre-dictability taking the example of the digital and brainrevolutions in neuroeducation. Finally I will discussthe new concept of ‘metaprediction’ based uponsome robust findings on brain activities in mathe-matics and physics.

ANTONIO M. BATTRO

Predictability, Measurement and Cosmic Time

If we agree that the possibility of making empiri-cal predictions belongs to the core of the physical

method, the macroscopic physics can be done onlyon a space-time manifold which is equipped with a‘timelike direction field’ (predictions point to the fu-ture, retrodictions point to the past). A theorem saysthat if a manifold admits a nonvanishing directionfield, it can carry a Lorentz metric; moreover, thismetric can be chosen in such a way that the direc-tion field would be timelike in it. Such a Lorentzmetric is a necessary condition for the very conceptof space and time measurements on a manifold to bemeaningful. However, for physical measurement op-erations of space and time it is not enough. One hasto guarantee that small changes in the Lorentz met-ric do not result in large differences in measurementresults, i.e., that the Lorentz metric be causally sta-ble. But owing to the Hawking theorem a Lorentzmetric is causally stable if and only if the global cos-mic time can be defined on the space-time manifoldequipped with this Lorentz metric.

MICHAEL HELLER

Chaos in Self-Exciting Dynamosand the Main Geomagnetic Field

Nonlinear feedback and coupling in dynamicalsystems operating under fixed boundary condi-

tions can produce persistently chaotic behaviour,which is unpredictable beyond a finite ‘predictabili-ty horizon’. But in some circumstances feedback andcoupling inhibit chaos, producing order rather thandisorder. Both types of behaviour may have to be in-voked in the interpretation of long-term variationsof the main geomagnetic field (MGF). The MGF isgenerated by (mainly buoyancy-driven) magnetohy-drodynamic (MHD) flow in the Earth’s liquid metal-lic outer core, where the electrical conductivity ishigh enough (but not too high) for efficient MHDself-exciting dynamo action to take place. Amongstthe nonlinear agencies operating in the MHD ‘geo-dynamo’ are Lorentz forces, involving interactions be-tween the electric currents generated by the geody-

namo and concomitant magnetic fields. One genericnonlinear process in self-exciting dynamos is the re-distribution of kinetic energy by such forces. Whenoperating within a steadily-forced self-exciting Fara-day-disk homopolar dynamo loaded with a nonlin-ear motor connected in series with the coil, Lorentzforces usually cause persistent large-amplitude chaot-ic fluctuations. But over a wide range of conditionsthey inhibit, rather than promote, fluctuations, insome cases eliminating them altogether. If this ‘non-linear-quenching’ process occurs in the MHD geody-namo it could account for the high degree of inter-mittency seen in the long-term behaviour of theMGF, as exhibited by the time-series of geomagnetic‘polarity reversals’, the most striking features ofwhich include intervals lasting as long as 3x107 yearsduring which no polarity reversals appear in thepalaeomagnetic record. Implied by this hypothesis,which could be tested with the aid of valid numeri-cal geodynamo models, is that eddies driven mainlyby Lorentz forces play a crucial role in the attenua-tion of fluctuations. Also crucial, and in principletestable, is the role played by modest changes in thelateral boundary conditions imposed on core mo-tions by very slow irregular convection in the highly-viscous overlying mantle.

RAYMOND HIDE

Some Predictions in Astrophysicsand Cosmology

I n 1962 a sudden paradigm change occurred in par-ticle physics: G. Chew and S. Frautschi discovered

that spin and mass of hadrons are not independentquantities. Experimentally observed mesons and bary-ons appear to lie on nearly linear and parallel Reggetrajectories. This has served as a source of inspira-tion for the present author to apply these ideas for re-vealing and explaining universal spin-mass relationsfor cosmic objects and display remarkable evidenceof the simplicity and unity of nature.

RUDOLF MURADIAN

When Results are Betterthan Predicted: A Case Study

Experiments on laser cooling of atomic gasesreached temperatures much lower than a sim-

ple and compelling theory had predicted. One con-sequence of this remarkable result was that one ofthe main goals of laser cooling, improved atomicclocks, was realized. In the light of this experience, Iconsider the prospect that it may be unwise to fullyanalyze the prospects of a new experiment before un-dertaking it.

WILLIAM D. PHILLIPS

Predictability in Science. Accuracy and Limitations Abstracts

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Predictability in Science. Accuracy and Limitations Abstracts

On the Unpredictabilityof Individual Research

Undoubtedly, the great discoveries of sciencelead, predictably, to research trends resulting

from them. Thus, the discovery of the double helixled to thousands of studies, ultimately leading to thebreaking of the genetic code, and – in turn – afterclose to fifty years, to the elucidation of the humangenome. Similarly, in physics, after the discovery ofthe theory of relativity or the theory of atoms, it wasto be expected that – usually only after several years– a stream of studies resulting from these theories –would appear in a predictable fashion. I would liketo generalize these observations by stating that – ata ‘macro’ level – it is safe to assume that science is,to a large extent, predictable.

My contention is that this is not true at the ‘mi-cro’, the individual research level. As most scientistsare expected to write grant proposals – in which theydescribe their plans for research and the results theyexpect to reach – it is of interest to ascertain to whatextent their predictions resemble the actual results.It would be depressingly boring if there were toomuch resemblance between the plans and the subse-quent reality. In all fairness, it must be stated that‘predictable’ is not necessarily ‘predicted’, and if theresults are actually opposite to what was predicted,in many cases this leads to breakthroughs of uncom-mon interest. We must be continuously watchful be-cause very often the ‘unpredictable’ is lost becauseof lack of attention. The discovery of Fleming in 1928of penicillin is due to his having paid attention to aPetrie dish with transparent areas in which the bac-teria disappeared. This stresses the importance ofserendipity which I define as ‘luck meeting the pre-pared mind’.

I would like to give a few examples from my ownresearch experience, and I refer to the discovery ofthe first synthetic polypeptide antigens, to the dis-covery of determinant-specific genetic control of im-mune response, to the discovery of a syntheticcopolymer of amino acids that became an efficientdrug against the exacerbating- remitting stage ofmultiple sclerosis, and to the discovery of a synergis-tic effect of a specific monoclonal antibody and of achemotherapeutic drug in fighting cancer.

MICHAEL SELA

The New Possibilities of Predictionand Prevention of Cancer

The predictivity of cancer defines the ability to as-sess the individual levels of risk of developing the

disease. Unfortunately there is no possibility of iden-tifying a generic risk of cancer, because under thisname we may figure one hundred or more differenttypes of malignant tumours, in any possible organ of

our complex organism. As most carcinogenic agentsare in the environment, the lifestyle of any person,his nutritional habits, his working activity, indoor oroutdoor, and any specific habit, like smoking andheavy alcohol consumption, will be important in therisk assessment. Moreover as cancer strikes mainlyin the old age, life expectancy is another importantpredictor. Environmental factors (chemical, physi-cal, viral) will interact with the cellular genome ofthe population, making specific mutations of DNA.The damaged DNA may be repaired by specific en-zymes, defined as DNA-repair mechanism, whichhowever is different in various individuals so thatpersons whose DNA-repair mechanism is very activeare more protected than persons whose ability to re-pair the DNA is lower. Finally there are inherited ge-netic conditions which may favour the appearanceof a limited number of different types of cancer(retinoblastoma, colon carcinoma, breast carcinomaand others). Cancer may be prevented with differentmeasures. The first is the elimination from the envi-ronment of all carcinogenic agents. Secondly, bymeans of a correct lifestyle with behaviours whichwill reduce the risk. Thirdly, with a special way offood consumption which includes a large quantity offruit and vegetables and a very little amount of fat ofanimal origin. Finally many studies are underway todevelop active principles which may block the car-cinogenic process.

UMBERTO VERONESI

Attempts to Predict a Minimal Genome

In recent years, advances in functional genomicsand computational biology have led to consider-

able progress in our comprehension of gene struc-ture and expression. One of the most defying issuesthat geneticists are presently addressing is the so-called minimal genome project, consisting in the at-tempt to define the minimum number of genes thatare necessary to sustain a free-living cellular organ-ism. Predictability plays an essential role in the ac-complishment of this goal, which is being ap-proached both theoretically and experimentally. It isexpected that the lowest number of genes will beidentified under the most favorable conditions imag-inable, that is, in the presence of a full complementof nutrients and in the absence of environmentalstress. The ability to correctly define the minimalgene set goes to the heart of our understanding ofcellular life. In addition, it should provide some in-sight into the earliest stages of biological evolution,since it is assumed that simpler, free living cells withgenomes much smaller than those of extant mi-crobes must have proliferated then.

RAFAEL VICUÑA

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FRONT COVER: Michelangelo Buonarroti,The Delphic Sibyl, 1509, fresco,

Sistine Chapel, Vatican

2 November 2006 (11)

STANDING RULES FOR MEETINGS

1. The Academy invites a number of illustrious scholars who have especially studied a given questionand have arrived at different conclusions to meet in Rome at its headquarters, the ‘Casina Pio IV’, situated inthe Vatican City, so as to make a joint examination of all the data on the question.

2. The chief aim of these discussions is to endeavour to reach a common view on the subject of the meet-ing, but when this is not possible to formulate precisely the reasons for this inability. The scholars invited tothese meetings undertake in advance to concentrate their efforts on this.

3. A critical examination of these reasons should lead either to agreement on a partial or provisional so-lution or else to the conclusion that, on the basis of the information presently available, it is impossible toestablish unity on the question concerned. In the latter event the scholars involved will be called upon:

a) to define the reasons why agreement appears to be impossible for the present;

b) to specify the kind of research work it would be desirable to undertake in order to solve the problem.

4. The invitation will be addressed by the Academy to only a small number of representatives of each branchof learning: these will be selected from scholars who are not connected with the Academy. These representa-tives will be joined during the discussions by members of the Academy who are experts in the same discipline.This invitation, moreover, will apply only to the study of one precise question by each branch of learning.

5. The debates will be strictly private and will take the form of papers and talks in the presence only of a fewmembers of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences who have special knowledge of the subject under discussion.

6. The conclusions arrived at will be published in the form of a ‘Statement’ (to which may be added indi-vidual notes) mentioning:

a) the points on which agreement was reached;

b) the points on which it was impossible to reach agreement;

c) the reasons why it was not possible to reach agreement;

d) suggestions about the research work that appears most appropriate in order to arrive at a solutionof the difficulties.

7. The ‘Statement’ arrived at will be immediately printed and transmitted by the Pontifical Academy ofSciences to all the centres of learning which might be interested in it.

Memorandum

1) Every day a bus will leave the Domus Sanctae Marthae at 8:45 for the Academy fifteen minutes before the be-ginning of the session. A bus will depart from the Academy at the end of each session (about 21:00) to take par-ticipants back to the Domus Sanctae Marthae. From 3 to 6 November lunch and dinner for the participants willbe served at the Academy except on Sunday, 5 November, when only dinner will be served after the visit to thePapal Villa at Castel Gandolfo.

2) Every day, except Sunday, Holy Mass will be held at 7:00 at the Domus Sanctae Marthae for those who wouldlike to attend.

NotePlease give your form for the refunding of expenses to the secretariat at least one day before your departure sothat you can be refunded immediately.

Predictability in Science. Accuracy and Limitations Memorandum

Ingresso Sant’UffizioThe ‘Sant’Uffizio’ gate

Ingresso del PeruginoThe ‘Perugino’ gate

Sede della PontificiaAccademia delle Scienze

Seat of the PontificalAcademy of Sciences

(CASINA PIO IV)

Chiesa di Santo Stefanodegli Abissini

St Stephenof the Abyssinians Church

DomusSanctae Marthae

Altare Tomba S. PietroAltar of St Peter’s Tomb

Ingresso Sant’AnnaThe ‘Sant’Anna’ gate

Ingresso Musei VaticaniEntrance gate

to the Vatican Museum

CASINA PIO IVV-00120 VATICAN CITY

Tel: +39 0669883451 • Fax: +39 0669885218Email: [email protected]

For further information please visit:http://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/pontifical_academies/acdscien/index.htm

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