power technologies international30 september 20021 load flow modelling service project results 30...
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30 September 2002 1Power Technologies International
Load Flow Modelling Service
Project results 30 September 2002
Mick Barlow
Srdjan Curcic
30 September 2002 2Power Technologies International
Content
• Project objectives• Modelling assumptions• Some potential issues with the proposed
approaches to allocation of losses• Illustration of the key results
30 September 2002 3Power Technologies International
Project objectives
• Power Technologies Int. has been commissioned to assist the assessment procedure of modification proposals P75 and P82, specifically:– to perform calculations of TLFs & TLMs for a specified
number of SPs for P75 & P82
– to present the results in a form suitable for the assessment procedure; and
– to draw attention to potential issues with the fundamentals of the two marginal approaches proposed (P75 & P82)
• This presentation contains an appropriate selection of the project results
30 September 2002 4Power Technologies International
Modelling assumptions
• MW injections are calculated from the metered volumes assuming they are constant (average)
• Power factors published in NGC’s SYS are used to calculate reactive power injections
• It is assumed that “offtake” metered volumes/injections are accurate and then the “delivery” volumes/injections are calculated to balance “offtake” metered volumes/injections and calculated variable active power system losses, while maintaining relative “deliveries” among the generators (DICTATED BY DATA QUALITY)
30 September 2002 5Power Technologies International
Modelling assumptions
• Load flow assumptions:– Generation P is calculated as described above– Generation Q is calculated automatically by setting
voltage target to 1.03 p.u.– Load P is calculated from the metered volumes– Load Q is calculated from typical power factors given in
the NGC’s SYS– Transformer tap changer are set according to information
in the NGC’s SYS for each voltage level– Transformer target voltage is set to produce reasonable
voltage profile (between 0.97 and 1.03 p.u.)– SVC’s target voltage is set to values recommended in the
NGC’s SYS
30 September 2002 6Power Technologies International
Modelling assumptions
• AC load flow calculations are using the standard NGC’s slack at Cowley
• PTI’s PSS/E-OPF is used for calculating marginal TLFs
• Out of TLFs obtained for active power injections and reactive power injections, unique TLFs are calculated that relate only to active power injections, while providing for the total losses incurred from a node
TLFij = (TLFPij Pij + TLFQij Qij) / Pij
30 September 2002 7Power Technologies International
Modelling assumptions
• On the basis of information in the NGC’s SYS, the fixed losses are assumed to be 200MW (peak), 180MW (trough) and 190MW (other periods – Autumn)
• For the purpose of calculating TLMs, these fixed losses are smeared across generators, proportionally to their power output
30 September 2002 8Power Technologies International
Issues with proposed allocation of losses
Slack node – An issue with the marginal TLFs approach:
• The choice of the slack node potentially matters more that initially expected :
30 September 2002 9Power Technologies International
Issues with proposed allocation of losses
Network & metered volumes are for 22 January 2002Comparison is between slack node at Cowley and at Thorpe Marsh
Slack node
Generation TLMs Demand TLMs
Diff/(TLM-1) Diff/TLM Diff/(TLM-1) Diff/TLM
Average 9.23% 0.30% 9,96% 0.28%
SD 14.26% 0.17% 19.05% 0.16%
Illustrative example: Assume a generation metered volume of 1000MWh and a TLM of 0.94. That would attribute 60MWh of losses to this generation. Due to the indicated change in slack node this 60MWh of losses would change for 9.23%, on average.
30 September 2002 10Power Technologies International
Issues with proposed allocation of losses
• The sensitivity analysis to introduction/variation of power factors has been done in an simple exercise:
For 02 January 2002 network and metered volumes two cases were calculated:– P.F. = 1 for all demand nodes– P.F. by NGC’s SYS
Power factor
30 September 2002 11Power Technologies International
Issues with proposed allocation of losses
Power factor
At the level of TLFs the effect was much more tangible. This indicates:
a) that reactive powers should not be ignored; andb) a possible need for further consideration
Nodal TLMs Nodal TLFs
Generation Demand
Diff/TLM Diff/TLM Diff/TLF
Average 0.22% 0.23% 14.22%
Minimum 0.00% 0.00% 0.08%
Maximum 1.57% 1.32% 371.51%
SD 0.24% 0.18% 31.07%
30 September 2002 12Power Technologies International
Summary: Issues with proposed allocation of losses
• There are some issues arising from the modelling
• TLFMG, nevertheless, have confidence in the modelling results
30 September 2002 13Power Technologies International
Illustration of key results
P75
30 September 2002 14Power Technologies International
P75 (T1)Base cases
02 Jan. 02 (SP36) - Peak01 Aug. 01 (SP8) - Trough
10 Oct. 01 (SP25) – Week day daylight11 Oct. 01 (SP11) – Week day night
13 Oct. 01 (SP25) – Weekend daylight 14 Oct. 01 (SP11) – Weekend night
30 September 2002 15Power Technologies International
GSPG and TNUoS (gen) zones
30 September 2002 16Power Technologies International
Change P75 introduces – an example (based on marginal, GSPG zone, ½ h
TLFs)
North
South0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Zonal TLMs (demand) for 02 January 2002TLMs (demand) for TLFs equal to ZEROs
02 January 2002
30 September 2002 17Power Technologies International
Demand TLMs for P75 (based on marginal, GSPG zone, ½ h TLFs)
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Max Average Min
North
South
30 September 2002 18Power Technologies International
Change P75 introduces – an example (based on marginal, TNUoS (gen) zone,
½ h TLFs)
North
South0.930.95
0.970.99
1.011.03
1.051.07
1.09
TNUoS 1
TNUoS 2
TNUoS 3
TNUoS 4
TNUoS 5
TNUoS 6
TNUoS 7
TNUoS 8
TNUoS 9
TNUoS 1
0
TNUoS 1
1
TNUoS 1
2
TNUoS 1
3
TNUoS 1
4
TNUoS 1
5
Zonal TLMs (generation) for 02 January 2002TLMs (generation) for TLFs equal to ZEROs
02 January 2002
30 September 2002 19Power Technologies International
Generation TLMs for P75 (based on marginal, TNUoS (gen) zone, ½ h
TLFs)
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.1
TNUoS 1
TNUoS 2
TNUoS 3
TNUoS 4
TNUoS 5
TNUoS 6
TNUoS 7
TNUoS 8
TNUoS 9
TNUoS 1
0
TNUoS 1
1
TNUoS 1
2
TNUoS 1
3
TNUoS 1
4
TNUoS 1
5
Max Average Min
North
South
30 September 2002 20Power Technologies International
P75 (T1) - Summary
• Introduction of Modification Proposal P75 would result in variable TLMs:– over time; and– across country
with an overall, indicative variation between 0.95 and 1.06 for demand and between 0.94 and 1.09 for generation
30 September 2002 21Power Technologies International
P75 (T2)Variation of TLMs over time
02 Jan. 02 (SP8 & SP36) – Peak day01 Aug. 01 (SP8 & SP36) – Trough day 10 Oct. 01 (SP1 – SP48) – Week day11 Oct. 01 (SP11) – Week day night
13 Oct. 01 (SP25) – Weekend daylight 14 Oct. 01 (SP11) – Weekend night
30 September 2002 22Power Technologies International
P75: GSPG zone TLMs over sample time period - demand
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
GSPG 1
3
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 1
0
GSPG 1
1
GSPG 1
2
Minimum Average Maximum
North
South
30 September 2002 23Power Technologies International
P75: TNUoS (gen) zone TLMs over sample time period - generation
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.1
TNUoS 1
TNUoS 2
TNUoS 3
TNUoS 4
TNUoS 5
TNUoS 6
TNUoS 7
TNUoS 8
TNUoS 9
TNUoS 1
0
TNUoS 1
1
TNUoS 1
2
TNUoS 1
3
TNUoS 1
4
TNUoS 1
5
Minimum Average Maximum
North
South
30 September 2002 24Power Technologies International
P75: GSPG zone TLMs over a day - Demand
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
SP
1
SP
6
SP
11
SP
16
SP
21
SP
26
SP
31
SP
36
SP
41
SP
46
GSPG 1 GSPG 6 GSPG 12
10 October 2001
North
South
30 September 2002 25Power Technologies International
P75: TNUoS (gen) zone TLMs over a day - Generation
10 October 2001
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
SP
1
SP
6
SP
11
SP
16
SP
21
SP
26
SP
31
SP
36
SP
41
SP
46
TNUoS 1 TNUoS 6 TNUoS 15
North
South
30 September 2002 26Power Technologies International
P75 (T2) - Summary
• Introduction of Modification Proposal P75 would result in daily variation in TLMs of up to approximately 0.03 for demand and 0.045 for generation (the exception is TNUoS zone 5 with reversible hydro plants where the variation is up to 0.065) on a typical autumn working day
30 September 2002 27Power Technologies International
P75 (T3)Sensitivity to network
configurationIndicative/Intact/Representativenetworks for the following SPs:
02 Jan. 02 (SP36) - Peak01 Aug. 01 (SP8) - Trough
10 Oct. 01 (SP25) – Week day daylight11 Oct. 01 (SP11) – Week day night
13 Oct. 01 (SP25) – Weekend daylight 14 Oct. 01 (SP11) – Weekend night
30 September 2002 28Power Technologies International
P75: GSPG zone TLMs - Demandsensitivity to network configuration
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Base case - Indicative/Intact Network Representative Network
North
South
02 January 2002 (peak)
30 September 2002 29Power Technologies International
P75: TNUoS (gen) zone TLMs - Generation
sensitivity to network configuration
North
South
02 January 2002 (peak)
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
TNUoS 1
TNUoS 2
TNUoS 3
TNUoS 4
TNUoS 5
TNUoS 6
TNUoS 7
TNUoS 8
TNUoS 9
TNUoS 1
0
TNUoS 1
1
TNUoS 1
2
TNUoS 1
3
TNUoS 1
4
TNUoS 1
5
Base case - Indicative/Intact Network Representative Network
30 September 2002 30Power Technologies International
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Base case - Indicative Network Intact Network
Representative Network
P75: GSPG zone TLMs - Demandsensitivity to network configuration
North
South
01 August 2002 (trough)
30 September 2002 31Power Technologies International
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
TNUoS 1
TNUoS 2
TNUoS 3
TNUoS 4
TNUoS 5
TNUoS 6
TNUoS 7
TNUoS 8
TNUoS 9
TNUoS 1
0
TNUoS 1
1
TNUoS 1
2
TNUoS 1
3
TNUoS 1
4
TNUoS 1
5
Base case - Indicative Network Intact Network
Representative Network
P75: TNUoS (gen) zone TLMs - Generation
sensitivity to network configuration
North
South
01 August 2002 (trough)
30 September 2002 32Power Technologies International
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.05
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Base case - Indicative Network Intact Network
Representative Network
P75: GSPG zone TLMs - Demandsensitivity to network configuration
North
South
10 October 2001 (weekday daylight)
30 September 2002 33Power Technologies International
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
TNUoS 1
TNUoS 2
TNUoS 3
TNUoS 4
TNUoS 5
TNUoS 6
TNUoS 7
TNUoS 8
TNUoS 9
TNUoS 1
0
TNUoS 1
1
TNUoS 1
2
TNUoS 1
3
TNUoS 1
4
TNUoS 1
5
Base case - Indicative Network Intact Network
Representative Network
P75: TNUoS (gen) zone TLMs - Generation
sensitivity to network configuration
North
South
10 October 2001 (weekday daylight)
30 September 2002 34Power Technologies International
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Base case - Indicative Network Intact Network
Representative Network
P75: GSPG zone TLMs - Demandsensitivity to network configuration
North
South
11 October 2001 (weekday night)
30 September 2002 35Power Technologies International
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
TNUoS 1
TNUoS 2
TNUoS 3
TNUoS 4
TNUoS 5
TNUoS 6
TNUoS 7
TNUoS 8
TNUoS 9
TNUoS 1
0
TNUoS 1
1
TNUoS 1
2
TNUoS 1
3
TNUoS 1
4
TNUoS 1
5
Base case - Indicative Network Intact Network
Representative Network
P75: TNUoS (gen) zone TLMs - Generation
sensitivity to network configuration
North
South
11 October 2001 (weekday night)
30 September 2002 36Power Technologies International
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Base case - Indicative Network Intact Network
Representative Network
P75: GSPG zone TLMs - Demandsensitivity to network configuration
North
South
13 October 2001 (weekend daylight)
30 September 2002 37Power Technologies International
0.960.970.980.99
11.011.021.031.041.05
TNUoS 1
TNUoS 2
TNUoS 3
TNUoS 4
TNUoS 5
TNUoS 6
TNUoS 7
TNUoS 8
TNUoS 9
TNUoS 1
0
TNUoS 1
1
TNUoS 1
2
TNUoS 1
3
TNUoS 1
4
TNUoS 1
5
Base case - Indicative Network Intact Network
Representative Network
P75: TNUoS (gen) zone TLMs - Generation
sensitivity to network configuration
North
South
13 October 2001 (weekend daylight)
30 September 2002 38Power Technologies International
P75: GSPG zone TLMs - Demandsensitivity to network configuration
North
South
14 October 2001 (weekend night)
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Base case - Indicative Network Intact Network
Representative Network
30 September 2002 39Power Technologies International
P75: TNUoS (gen) zone TLMs - Generation
sensitivity to network configuration
North
South
14 October 2001 (weekend night)
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
TNUoS 1
TNUoS 2
TNUoS 3
TNUoS 4
TNUoS 5
TNUoS 6
TNUoS 7
TNUoS 8
TNUoS 9
TNUoS 1
0
TNUoS 1
1
TNUoS 1
2
TNUoS 1
3
TNUoS 1
4
TNUoS 1
5
Base case - Indicative Network Intact NetworkRepresentative Network
30 September 2002 40Power Technologies International
P75 (T3) - Summary
• Network configuration can have an effect on TLMs:– while there is almost no difference between
intact and representative networks,– there is a tangible difference between
indicative and intact networks
30 September 2002 41Power Technologies International
P75 (T4)Sensitivities to
constraints02 January 2002
(base case)02 January 2002
(constrained case)
5 double circuits restricted for 20% below the flow level in base case
30 September 2002 42Power Technologies International
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Base Case Constrained Case
P75: GSPG zone TLMs - Demandsensitivity to constraints
North
South
Losses: 758.5MW (base case), 573 (constrained case)
30 September 2002 43Power Technologies International
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.1
TNUoS 1
TNUoS 2
TNUoS 3
TNUoS 4
TNUoS 5
TNUoS 6
TNUoS 7
TNUoS 8
TNUoS 9
TNUoS 1
0
TNUoS 1
1
TNUoS 1
2
TNUoS 1
3
TNUoS 1
4
TNUoS 1
5
Base Case Constrained Case
P75: TNUoS zone TLMs - Generation sensitivity to constraints
North
South
Losses: 758.5MW (base case), 573 (constrained case)
30 September 2002 44Power Technologies International
P75 (T4) - Summary
• Constraints may have an impact on TLMs
30 September 2002 45Power Technologies International
P75 (T5)Comparison of
Generation TLFs/TLMs and Demand TLFs/TLMs
at the same node
30 September 2002 46Power Technologies International
P75: Comparison of Generation/Demand Zonal TLFs/TLMs
Node: Rye HouseGSPG zone: 7TNUoS zone: 10SP: 02 January 2002, SP36
Generation Demand
Nodal TLMs 1.0346 1.0222
TNUoS (for generation) GSPG (for demand) Zonal TLMs
1.0408 1.0286
GSPG (for generation and demand) Zonal TLMs
1.1005 1.0885
30 September 2002 47Power Technologies International
P75 (T5) - Summary
• Discrepancies between TLMs for generation and demand at a node are not greatly exacerbated if generation and demand zones are different from one another
• Only one node has been assessed and this may not be representative
30 September 2002 48Power Technologies International
P75 (T6)Comparison of Nodal TLFs/TLMs
with Zonal TLFs/TLMs
30 September 2002 49Power Technologies International
P75: Comparison of Nodal/Zonal TLMs (Demand)
02 January 2002
Winter peak (SP36)
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1
22
43
64
85
10
6
12
7
14
8
16
9
19
0
21
1
23
2
25
3
27
4
29
5
31
6
33
7
35
8
37
9
GSPG Zonal TLMs - Demand Nodal TLMs - Demand
North
South
30 September 2002 50Power Technologies International
P75: Comparison of Nodal/Zonal TLMs (Generation)
02 January 2002
Winter peak (SP36)
0.93
0.95
0.97
0.99
1.01
1.03
1.05
1.07
1.09
1
22
43
64
85
10
6
12
7
14
8
16
9
19
0
21
1
23
2
25
3
27
4
29
5
31
6
33
7
35
8
37
9
TNUoS (gen) Zonal TLMs - Generation Nodal TLMs - Generation
North
South
30 September 2002 51Power Technologies International
P75: Comparison of Nodal/Zonal TLMs (Demand)
01 August 2001
Summer trough (SP8)
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.05
1
20
39
58
77
96
11
5
13
4
15
3
17
2
19
1
21
0
22
9
24
8
26
7
28
6
30
5
32
4
34
3
GSPG Zonal TLMs - Demand Nodal TLMs - Demand
North
South
30 September 2002 52Power Technologies International
P75: Comparison of Nodal/Zonal TLMs (Generation)
01 August 2001
Summer trough (SP8)
0.95
0.97
0.99
1.01
1.03
1.05
1
20
39
58
77
96
11
5
13
4
15
3
17
2
19
1
21
0
22
9
24
8
26
7
28
6
30
5
32
4
34
3
TNUoS (gen) Zonal TLMs - Generation Nodal TLMs - Generation
North South
30 September 2002 53Power Technologies International
P75 (T6) - Summary
• Introduction of Modification Proposal P75 and its zonal TLMs (GSPG zones for demand and TNUoS (gen) zones for generation) would result in nodal TLMs for some nodes being closer to neighbouring zonal TLMs
30 September 2002 54Power Technologies International
P75 (T7)Model performance
characteristics
30 September 2002 55Power Technologies International
• Data capture depends on the source systems
• Data capture will be greatly improved once NGC’s state estimator is fully operational
• Amount, duration and quality of data depends on the source systems and the TLF modification applied
• The quality and consistency of the data determine the time and effort required to establish acceptable loadflow conditions
P75: Input data
30 September 2002 56Power Technologies International
• Once a suitable loadflow data set has been obtained it should take less than 10 seconds to obtain TLFs for all considered generation/demand points for a SP
• The output would be suitably structured list of TLFs
• Further post processing could be established to automatically produce a higher level of the output data
P75: Processing and output data
30 September 2002 57Power Technologies International
P75 (T8)Sensitivities to flows on French Inter-connector31 October 2001
(importing)07 November
2001 (exporting)
30 September 2002 58Power Technologies International
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Importing from France Exporting to france
P75: GSPG zone TLMs -sensitivity to flows on French Inter-connector
North
South
Losses: 377.1MW (importing), 533.3 (exporting)
30 September 2002 59Power Technologies International
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
THUoS 1
THUoS 2
THUoS 3
THUoS 4
THUoS 5
THUoS 6
THUoS 7
THUoS 8
THUoS 9
THUoS 1
0
THUoS 1
1
THUoS 1
2
THUoS 1
3
THUoS 1
4
THUoS 1
5
Importing from France Exporting to france
P75: TNUoS zone TLMs -sensitivity to flows on French Inter-connector
North
South
Losses: 377.1MW (importing), 533.3 (exporting)
30 September 2002 60Power Technologies International
P75 (T9&10)
Examples of moving
generation deliveries for the selected nodes
Greystones
Barking Power
30 September 2002 61Power Technologies International
P75: GSPG zone TLMs -sensitivity to plant outages / response to
signals
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
GSPG 13
GSPG 2
GSPG 4
GSPG 6
GSPG 8
GSPG 10
GSPG 12
Base Case
1000MW removedfrom Greystones (T9-1)
1000MW removedfrom Barking Power(T9-2)
1000MW moved fromGreystones to BarkingPower (T10)
North
South
02 January 2002
30 September 2002 62Power Technologies International
P75: TNUoS (gen) zone TLMs -sensitivity to plant outages / response to
signals
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.1
TNUoS 1
TNUoS 3
TNUoS 5
TNUoS 7
TNUoS 9
TNUoS 1
1
TNUoS 1
3
TNUoS 1
5
Base Case
1000MW removedfrom Greystones (T9-1)1000MW removedfrom Barking Power(T9-2)1000MW moved fromGreystones to BarkingPower (T10)
North
South
02 January 2002
30 September 2002 63Power Technologies International
For the base case of 02 January
2002 500MW were moved from
Dinorwig to 5 different places
Indian Queens
P75 (T11): Sensitivity to intermittent generation
Blyth
Harker
Grain
Norwich
Dinorwig
30 September 2002 64Power Technologies International
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
GSPG 1
3
GSPG 2
GSPG 4
GSPG 6
GSPG 8
GSPG 1
0
GSPG 1
2
Base Case
500MW to Blyth
500MW to Harker
500MW to IndianQueens
500MW to Grain
500MW to Norwich
P75: GSPG zone TLMs - Demandsensitivity to intermittent generation
North
South
02 January 2002
30 September 2002 65Power Technologies International
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
TNUoS 1
TNUoS 3
TNUoS 5
TNUoS 7
TNUoS 9
TNUoS 1
1
TNUoS 1
3
TNUoS 1
5
Base Case
500MW to Blyth
500MW to Harker
500MW to IndianQueens
500MW to Grain
500MW to Norwich
P75: TNUoS zone TLMs - Generationsensitivity to intermittent generation
North
South
02 January 2002
30 September 2002 66Power Technologies International
P75 (T8 to T11) - Summary
• TLMs in Modification Proposal P75 are only locally sensitive to plant withdrawal or plant relocation or to intermittent generation
• Note that for Task 8 (sensitivity to flow on French inter-connector) the effect is complicated as we have two different dates and SPs with different generation and demand profiles
30 September 2002 67Power Technologies International
Illustration of key results
P82
30 September 2002 68Power Technologies International
P82 (T1)Variation of scaled TLFs over
time
02 Jan. 02 (SP8 & SP36) – Peak day01 Aug. 01 (SP8 & SP36) – Trough day 10 Oct. 01 (SP1 – SP48) – Week day11 Oct. 01 (SP11) – Week day night
13 Oct. 01 (SP25) – Weekend daylight 14 Oct. 01 (SP11) – Weekend night
30 September 2002 69Power Technologies International
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
GSPG 1
3
GSPG 1
GSPG2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 1
0
GSPG 1
1
GSPG 1
2
Minimum Average Maximum
P82: GSPG zone ½ h TLMs over sample time period - Demand
North
South
30 September 2002 70Power Technologies International
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
GSPG 1
3
GSPG 1
GSPG2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 1
0
GSPG 1
1
GSPG 1
2
Minimum Average Maximum
P82: GSPG zone ½ h TLMs over sample time period - Generation
North
South
30 September 2002 71Power Technologies International
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
SP
1
SP
6
SP
11
SP
16
SP
21
SP
26
SP
31
SP
36
SP
41
SP
46
GSPG 1 GSPG 6 GSPG 12
P82: GSPG zone ½ h TLMs over a day - Demand
10 October 2001
North
South
30 September 2002 72Power Technologies International
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
SP
1
SP
6
SP
11
SP
16
SP
21
SP
26
SP
31
SP
36
SP
41
SP
46
GSPG 1 GSPG 6 GSPG 12
P82: GSPG zone ½ h TLMs over a day - Generation
10 October 2001
North
South
30 September 2002 73Power Technologies International
P82 (T1) - Summary
• Before implementing the averaging of TLFs, the variation in TLMs for P82 would be up to approximately 0.016 for demand and 0.017 for generation on a typical autumn working day
30 September 2002 74Power Technologies International
P82 (T2)Base cases
02 Jan. 02 (SP36) - Peak01 Aug. 01 (SP8) - Trough
10 Oct. 01 (SP25) – Week day daylight11 Oct. 01 (SP11) – Week day night
13 Oct. 01 (SP25) – Weekend daylight 14 Oct. 01 (SP11) – Weekend night
30 September 2002 75Power Technologies International
GSPG and TNUoS (gen) zones
30 September 2002 76Power Technologies International
Change P82 introduces – an example (based on scaled, GSPG zone, averaged
TLFs)
North
South0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Zonal TLMs (demand) for 02 January 2002TLMs (demand) for TLFs equal to ZEROs
02 January 2002
30 September 2002 77Power Technologies International
Demand TLMs for P82 (based on scaled, GSPG zone, averaged TLFs)
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Max Average Min
North
South
30 September 2002 78Power Technologies International
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Zonal TLMs (generation) for 02 January 2002TLMs (generation) for TLFs equal to ZEROs
Change P82 introduces – an example (based on scaled, GSPG zone, averaged
TLFs)
North
South
02 January 2002
30 September 2002 79Power Technologies International
Generation TLMs for P82 (based on scaled, GSPG zone, averaged TLFs)
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Max Average Min
North
South
30 September 2002 80Power Technologies International
P82 (T2) - Summary
• Introduction of Modification Proposal P82 would result in variable TLMs:– over time; and– across country
with an overall variation between 0.99 and 1.03 for demand and between 0.975 and 1.015 for generation, where spatial variations are larger than temporal variations
30 September 2002 81Power Technologies International
P82 (T3)Variation of TLMs over time
(based on average scaled TLFs)
02 Jan. 02 (SP8 & SP36) – Peak day01 Aug. 01 (SP8 & SP36) – Trough day 10 Oct. 01 (SP1 – SP48) – Week day11 Oct. 01 (SP11) – Week day night
13 Oct. 01 (SP25) – Weekend daylight 14 Oct. 01 (SP11) – Weekend night
30 September 2002 82Power Technologies International
P82: GSPG zone TLMs over sample time period - Demand
North
South0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
GSPG 1
3
GSPG 1
GSPG2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 1
0
GSPG 1
1
GSPG 1
2
Minimum Average Maximum
30 September 2002 83Power Technologies International
P82: GSPG zone TLMs over sample time period - Generation
North
South0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
GSPG 1
3
GSPG 1
GSPG2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 1
0
GSPG 1
1
GSPG 1
2
Minimum Average Maximum
30 September 2002 84Power Technologies International
P82: GSPG zone TLMs over a day - Demand
10 October 2001
North
South
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
SP
1
SP
6
SP
11
SP
16
SP
21
SP
26
SP
31
SP
36
SP
41
SP
46
GSPG 1 GSPG 6 GSPG 12
30 September 2002 85Power Technologies International
P82: GSPG zone TLMs over a day - Generation
10 October 2001
North
South
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
SP
1
SP
6
SP
11
SP
16
SP
21
SP
26
SP
31
SP
36
SP
41
SP
46
GSPG 1 GSPG 6 GSPG 12
30 September 2002 86Power Technologies International
P82 (T3) - Summary
• Introduction of Modification Proposal P82 would result in almost non-existent daily variations in TLMs (up to approximately 0.004 for demand and 0.004 for generation) on a typical autumn working day
30 September 2002 87Power Technologies International
P82 (T4)Sensitivity of TLFs & TLMs to
choice of historic data and weightings
30 September 2002 88Power Technologies International
• This task has not been completed as the required input data have not been provided
P82: Sensitivity of TLFs & TLMs to historic data and weighting coefficients
30 September 2002 89Power Technologies International
P82 (T5)Sensitivities to
constraints02 January 2002
(base case)02 January 2002
(constrained case)
5 double circuits restricted for 20% below the flow level in base case
30 September 2002 90Power Technologies International
P82: GSPG zone TLMs - Demandsensitivity to constraints
North
South
Losses: 758.5MW (base case), 573 (constrained case)
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Base Case Constrained Case
30 September 2002 91Power Technologies International
P82: TNUoS zone TLMs - Generation sensitivity to constraints
North
South
Losses: 758.5MW (base case), 573 (constrained case)
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Base Case Constrained Case
30 September 2002 92Power Technologies International
P82 (T5) - Summary
• TLMs in Modification Proposal P82 are almost insensitive to constraints – because the effects of such events would be averaged in the following year
30 September 2002 93Power Technologies International
P82 (T6)Comparison of Nodal TLFs/TLMs
with Zonal TLFs/TLMs
30 September 2002 94Power Technologies International
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
1
22
43
64
85
10
6
12
7
14
8
16
9
19
0
21
1
23
2
25
3
27
4
29
5
31
6
33
7
35
8
37
9
GSPG Zonal TLMs - Generation Nodal TLMs - Generation
North South
P82: Comparison of Nodal/Zonal TLMs – Generation
02 January 2002
Winter peak (SP36)
30 September 2002 95Power Technologies International
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1
22
43
64
85
10
6
12
7
14
8
16
9
19
0
21
1
23
2
25
3
27
4
29
5
31
6
33
7
35
8
37
9
GSPG Zonal TLMs - Demand Nodal TLMs - Demand
North South
P82: Comparison of Nodal/Zonal TLMs - Demand
02 January 2002
Winter peak (SP36)
30 September 2002 96Power Technologies International
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1
20
39
58
77
96
11
5
13
4
15
3
17
2
19
1
21
0
22
9
24
8
26
7
28
6
30
5
32
4
34
3
GSPG Zonal TLMs - Generation Nodal TLMs - Generation
North South
P82: Comparison of Nodal/Zonal TLMs – Generation
01 August 2001
Summer trough (SP8)
30 September 2002 97Power Technologies International
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
1
20
39
58
77
96
11
5
13
4
15
3
17
2
19
1
21
0
22
9
24
8
26
7
28
6
30
5
32
4
34
3
GSPG Zonal TLMs - Demand Nodal TLMs - Demand
North South
P82: Comparison of Nodal/Zonal TLMs - Demand
01 August 2001
Summer trough (SP8)
30 September 2002 98Power Technologies International
P82 (T6) - Summary
• Introduction of Modification Proposal P82 and its zonal TLMs (GSPG zones only for both demand and generation) would result in nodal TLMs for some nodes being closer to neighbouring zonal TLMs
30 September 2002 99Power Technologies International
P82 (T7)Sensitivities to flows on French Inter-connector31 October 2001
(importing)07 November
2001 (exporting)
30 September 2002 100Power Technologies International
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Importing from France Exporting to france
P82: GSPG zone TLMs - Demandsensitivity to flows on French Inter-connector
North
South
Losses: 377.1MW (importing), 533.3 (exporting)
30 September 2002 101Power Technologies International
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
GSPG 13
GSPG 1
GSPG 2
GSPG 3
GSPG 4
GSPG 5
GSPG 6
GSPG 7
GSPG 8
GSPG 9
GSPG 10
GSPG 11
GSPG 12
Importing from France Exporting to france
P82: GSPG zone TLMs - Generationsensitivity to flows on French Inter-connector
North
South
Losses: 377.1MW (importing), 533.3 (exporting)
30 September 2002 102Power Technologies International
P82 (T7) - Summary
• TLMs in Modification Proposal P82 are almost insensitive to direction of flows on the French inter-connector – because the effects of such events would be averaged in the following year
30 September 2002 103Power Technologies International
P82 (T8) Degree to which a scaling
factor of 0.5 recovers heating losses
02 Jan. 02 (SP36) - Peak01 Aug. 01 (SP8) - Trough
10 Oct. 01 (SP25) – Week day daylight11 Oct. 01 (SP11) – Week day night
13 Oct. 01 (SP25) – Weekend daylight 14 Oct. 01 (SP11) – Weekend night
30 September 2002 104Power Technologies International
0.48
0.49
0.5
0.51
0.52
0.53
0.54
0.55
02-Jan-2002
01-Aug-2001
10-Oct-2001
11-Oct-2001
13-Oct-2001
14-Oct-2001
Sc
ale
co
eff
icie
nts
Flat 0.5 scale coeff. Accurate scale coeff.
P82: Comparison between flat 0.5 scaling factor and the actual
reconciliation factors
30 September 2002 105Power Technologies International
90.00%
92.50%
95.00%
97.50%
100.00%
102.50%
105.00%
02-Jan-2002
01-Aug-2001
10-Oct-2001
11-Oct-2001
13-Oct-2001
14-Oct-2001
Un
de
r/O
ve
r R
ec
ov
ery
of
Lo
ss
es
Use of 0.5 scale coeff. Use of accurate scale coeff.
P82: Nodal TLFs – recovery of heating losses with scaling factor 0.5 and the actual reconciliation factors
30 September 2002 106Power Technologies International
P82 (T8) - Summary
• Scaling factor of 0.5 does not precisely recover heating losses but appears to be a reasonable approximation
30 September 2002 107Power Technologies International
P82 (T9&10)
Examples of moving
generation deliveries for the selected nodes
Greystones
Barking Power
30 September 2002 108Power Technologies International
P82: GSPG zone TLMs - Demand sensitivity to plant outages / response to
signals
0.99
0.995
1
1.005
1.01
1.015
1.02
1.025
1.03
GSPG 1
3
GSPG 2
GSPG 4
GSPG 6
GSPG 8
GSPG 1
0
GSPG 1
2
Base Case
1000MW removedfrom Greystones (T9-1)1000MW removedfrom Barking Power(T9-2)1000MW moved fromGreystones toBarking Power (T10)
North
South
02 January 2002
30 September 2002 109Power Technologies International
0.975
0.98
0.985
0.99
0.995
1
1.005
1.01
1.015
GSPG 13
GSPG 2
GSPG 4
GSPG 6
GSPG 8
GSPG 10
GSPG 12
Base Case
1000MW removedfrom Greystones (T9-1)1000MW removedfrom Barking Power(T9-2)1000MW moved fromGreystones toBarking Power (T10)
P82: GSPG zone TLMs - Generation sensitivity to plant outages / response to
signals
North
South
02 January 2002
30 September 2002 110Power Technologies International
For the base case of 02 January
2002 500MW were moved from
Dinorwig to 5 different places
Indian Queens
P82 (T11): Sensitivity to intermittent generation
Blyth
Harker
Grain
Norwich
Dinorwig
30 September 2002 111Power Technologies International
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
GSPG 13
GSPG 2
GSPG 4
GSPG 6
GSPG 8
GSPG 10
GSPG 12
Base Case
500MW to Blyth
500MW to Harker
500MW to IndianQueens
500MW to Grain
500MW to Norwich
P82: GSPG zone TLMs - Demandsensitivity to intermittent generation
North
South
02 January 2002
30 September 2002 112Power Technologies International
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
GSPG 13
GSPG 2
GSPG 4
GSPG 6
GSPG 8
GSPG 10
GSPG 12
Base Case
500MW to Blyth
500MW to Harker
500MW to IndianQueens
500MW to Grain
500MW to Norwich
P82: GSPG zone TLMs - Generationsensitivity to intermittent generation
North
South
02 January 2002
30 September 2002 113Power Technologies International
P82 (T9 to T11) - Summary
• TLMs in Modification Proposal P82 are almost insensitive to plant withdrawal or move or to intermittent generation – because the effects of such events would be averaged in the following year
30 September 2002 114Power Technologies International
END OF PRESENTATION