Potential Benefits of ECBC in Gujarat Impact Assessment Study by GCAM

SHA YU, SENIOR RESEARCH SCIENTIST

Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

ECBC Stakeholder Workshop, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India November 3rd, 2015

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Contents

Introduction

Policy Background

Examples of Benefits

PNNL’s Work on ECBC

Summary of Key Findings: ECBC in Gujarat

Methodology

Approach

Definition of Scenarios

Assumptions

Results

Reference Scenario: Current Energy Structure and Projection

Policy Scenarios: Benefits, Compliance and Comparison

Conclusion

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Introduction

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4

Policy Background

Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC)

Issued in 2007 by Ministry of Power and Bureau of Energy Efficiency.

Adopted by 8 states to date, with 8 states in notification process.

After adoption, mandatory for all new commercial buildings with

connected load of over 100 kW or contract demand of over 120 kVA --

unlike voluntary labels (e.g. green building).

Addresses building envelope, heating, ventilation and air conditioning

(HVAC), service hot water and pumping, lighting, and electrical power

and motors.

Compliance approaches:

• Prescriptive;

• Trade-off option;

• Whole building performance.

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Examples of Benefits

40% 40% 39%

27% 29%

37% 36%

34% 33% 34%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Delhi Ahmedabad Kolkata Bangalore Shillong

% S

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24 Hr Operation Buildings Daytime Use Buildings

25-40% Reduction in Building Energy Use with ECBC

PNNL’s Work on ECBC Implementation

under the U.S.- India Energy Dialogue

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Accelerating ECBC

implementation at the

State and local level

Assessing building code

impacts in Gujarat and

ECBC workshop

Pilot building in Rajasthan

Implementation

mechanisms

Training and capacity

building

Previous Work in Rajasthan

Developed training materials to make up for existing capacity gaps

• Conceptual understanding:

o Introduction on ECBC history, benefits, requirements, energy savings and

successful cases (including Codes 101)

o Calculation of U-value of walls and roofs

o Applying the trade-off method for envelope

8/22/2016 7

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Building Energy Codes Program

• Compliance checking

procedures:

o Compilation of mandatory

building requirements by

section

o Compliance evaluation

procedures

Previous Work in Rajasthan (Cont.)

Webinar on ECBC implementation

• The webinar features presentations from leading scientists and building

energy professionals from U.S. Department of Energy, PNNL, MNIT and

Natural Resources Defense Council (NDRC). Topics covered include ongoing

efforts to implement ECBC in Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh, and lessons

learned from pilot ECBC buildings on the campus of MNIT.

• 80 participants from U.S. Government, Government of India, NGOs,

consulting firms, companies in the building industry and universities attended

the webinar. Most of them expressed overall satisfaction with what the

webinar conveyed. 8/22/2016 8

Source: Clean Energy Solutions Center and PNNL

Previous Work in Rajasthan (Cont.)

MNIT’s pilot ECBC-compliant building: Prabha Bhawan

8/22/2016 9

• Advanced design in envelope

insulation, glazing, lighting (especially

day lighting), HVAC and renewable

energy integration

• Consumes 30% less energy than a

standard ECBC-compliant building

(i.e. meet all applicable ECBC

requirements) Key lessons learned

• Not all materials and equipment needed

for ECBC were available on the

“Schedule of Rates”. BEE has since

been working with the Central Public

Works Department to get the Schedule

of Rates updated.

• Need for robust and easy-to-use

compliance software Prabha Bhawan Building Source: MNIT

Day lit computer lab in Prabha Bhawan Source: MNIT

Proposed Work in Gujarat

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Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been working with

Indian states (e.g. Rajasthan) and cities to facilitate ECBC

implementation at the state and local level. PNNL plans to work with the

State of Gujarat to facilitate ECBC adoption and implementation in the

future.

At the initial stage, PNNL conducted an assessment using Global

Change Assessment Model (GCAM) on the potential benefits of ECBC in

Gujarat. Starting from this study, PNNL hopes to help facilitate better

understanding of ECBC and discussion on Gujarat’s next steps.

This study is designed to show how building energy policies (e.g. ECBC,

green building programs, etc.) will affect Gujarat in terms of building

energy use and corresponding costs by 2050. It also identifies how

compliance affects policy effectiveness and compares different policies

by the benefits they create for Gujarat.

Summary of Key Findings:

ECBC in Gujarat

Economic savings

ECBC will help to save 9 billion US dollars (2010$) from avoided capacity

additions and O&M costs in 2050, assuming high compliance.

Compliance matters

Strict regulations save 3 billion more U.S. dollars (2010$) in 2050 than

lax regulations.

Comparison of different building policies

Applying mandatory building codes to both commercial and residential

buildings will save 11 billion more U.S. dollars (2010$) in 2050 compared

with the voluntary green building rating and certification programs,

assuming high compliance for both.

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Methodology

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The impact assessment study is conducted using GCAM, which is an

integrated assessment tool for exploring consequences and responses to

global or regional change with technology-rich representations of the

economy, energy sector, land use and water linked to a climate model.

In this case, we use GCAM-Gujarat to explore energy use and energy

costs (consequences and responses; outputs) that are resulted from

economic, population and floorspace growth (regional change; inputs)

that differ under different policy scenarios.

Approach

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GCAM-Gujarat Structure

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Note: Residential rural and commercial building sectors have similar structures to residential urban shown here.

Definition of Policy Scenarios

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• Continuation with status quo without any building energy policy Reference

• Voluntary green building rating and certification programs Green Building

• Mandatory building code on code-covered commercial buildings (as specified in ECBC) ECBC

• Mandatory building codes on both commercial (ECBC) and residential buildings Codes

Policy In

terference

Assumptions:

GDP and Population Growth

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GDP Average Annual Growth Rate • Historical: 13.4% • Projection: 5.0%

Urbanization Rate: • 56% in 2030; 71% in 2050

Source of historical GDP: Directorate of Economics and Statistics

Source of urbanization rate: IIASA

Source of historical population: http://www.indiaonlinepages.com/population/gujarat-population.html

Assumptions:

Floorspace Growth

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Source of historical data: NSSO Consumer Expenditure Survey

Assumptions:

Current Structure of Building Energy Use

• Gujarat Building Energy Use in 2010: 0.37 EJ (4.5% of India)

• Gujarat Building Electricity Use in 2010: 13.8 TWh (6.4% of India)

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Results

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Reference Scenario:

Projection of Building Energy Use

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Annual Average Growth Rate for Total Final Energy Use in Buildings: 2.6%

Reference Scenario:

Projection of Building Energy Use

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Annual Average Growth Rate for Total Final Energy Use in Buildings: 2.59%

Inter-Country/Region Comparison:

Building Energy Intensity by Floorspace

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Policy Benefits:

Reduction in Building Electricity Use

In 2050, ECBC will help to avoid 6200 MW of electricity capacity addition and to save 9 billion U.S. dollars (2010$) from avoided capacity additions and O&M costs in Gujarat.

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Code Compliance

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• In 2050, stringent compliance of ECBC helps to enhance policy benefits with 11.3 TWh less electricity use and 3 billion 2010 USD more savings than low compliance;

• When it comes to the Codes scenario, the difference between high and low compliance is expanded to 18.5 TWh electricity and 5 billion 2010 USD savings.

• High Compliance: 99% Compliance by 2050 • Low Compliance: 80% Compliance by 2050

Policy Comparison:

ECBC and Codes vs. Green Building

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In 2050, the economic benefits of ECBC will be over three times than Green Building; Codes will have even greater economic benefits, which are over five times than Green Building.

Policy Comparison:

Roles of Codes and Green Building

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• Green Building: higher level of top energy performance + fewer compliant buildings • Codes: lower level of top energy performance + more compliant buildings

Energy Efficiency Codes Level

Green Building

Reference

Codes

Codes and Green Building

Nu

mb

er

of

Bu

ildin

gs

Building Energy Codes and Green Buildings Work in Tandem to Improve Energy Efficiency

Conclusion

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Summary of Key Findings:

ECBC in Gujarat

Economic savings

ECBC will help to save 9 billion US dollars (2010$) from avoided capacity

additions and O&M costs in 2050, assuming high compliance.

Compliance matters

Strict regulations save 3 billion more U.S. dollars (2010$) in 2050 than

lax regulations.

Comparison of different building policies

Applying mandatory building codes to both commercial and residential

buildings will save 11 billion more U.S. dollars (2010$) in 2050 compared

with the voluntary green building rating and certification programs,

assuming high compliance for both.

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Recommendations

ECBC addresses the energy efficiency of building envelope, HVAC,

lighting and electric power and motors, which make a great portion of

current building energy use in Gujarat. Implementing ECBC in Gujarat

will result in significant energy and economic savings.

Compliance makes a huge difference in the effectiveness of building

energy policies. The authorities that enforce the building energy policies

are recommended to pay great attention to enhancing their enforcement

capacity.

A voluntary policy (i.e. Green Building) may do well in encouraging better

building energy performance, since it works as an incentive; but

mandatory policies (i.e. ECBC and Codes) achieve much more economic

benefits from reduced energy consumption than a voluntary policy, and

are thus greatly recommended.

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