population dynamics & public policy - ihs · population pyramids age-sex pyramids / age...

Population Dynamics & Public Policy

Prasanta Mahapatra22 Oct. 2009

MCR HRD Institute Hyderabad:83rd Foundation Course for Central Civil Service Officers

Presentation Plan

1. A Few Demographic Concepts

2. World Population Trends3. Models and Theories on

Population Dynamics

Mahapatra Population Dynamics & Public Policy

1-2

Selected Demographic Concepts

Popt+1 = Popt + Births-Deaths + In-Out

Natural Increase

Net Migration

Basic Demographic Equation

Population change = Natural increase + Net migration


3-4

Population Pyramids

Age-Sex Pyramids / Age Structure Diagram

Males Females

Age group

Child dependency

ratio: P15-64

P0-14 %100

P15-64

%100+ P65+P0-14

Working Ages%100

Children + Elderly

Total dependency

ratio:

P15-64

P65+ %100Old age (Aged) dependency ratio:

Dependency Ratios


5-6

Dependency Ratio of Selected Populations, 2005

Child Dep Ratio %

Old Age Dep Ratio %

Total Dep Ratio %

France 28 26 54India 53 7 60Iran 39 7 46Japan 21 30 51USA 31 19 50

Source: UN Data http://data.un.org/ accessed on 21/10/09

Births in the year to women aged xWomen aged x at mid yearAge Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)=

Total number of children an average woman will bear during her reproductive life, say 15-49 years.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)=

Average number of daughters a woman would have if she survived to at least age 50 (i.e. mortality was zero till age 50) and experienced the given female ASFRs.

Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)=

Average number of daughters a woman would have allowing for prevailing mortality among women in reproductive age. NRR incorporates GRR (Reproductivity) and ASDR (Mortality).

Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)=

Fertility Measures


7-8

Year Age at M TFR GRR1997 19.1 3.3 1.61998 19.5 3.2 1.51999 19.6 3.2 1.52000 19.8 3.2 1.52001 19.9 3.1 1.52002 20.0 3.0 1.42003 20.1 3.0 1.42004 20.4 2.9 1.42005 20.2 2.9 1.42006 20.5 2.8 1.3

India - Fertility Rates

Source: SRS Annual Reports

What Would be the Maximum Natural Fertility?

Hutterites are absolute pacifists, live in a community and do not practice contraception.Currently found in Canada (Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan); USA (South Dakota, Montana).Eaton & Mayor (1953) estimated Hutterite TFR=10.9Subsequently, Robninso (1986) observed that some form of birth controls are actually at work among Hutterites.Adjusting for the same Robinso estimates max natural TFR= 15

Photo by Everett Baker downloaded on 21/10/09 from http://landerspot.com/WordPress/?p=36#more-36


9-10

Comments Questions?&

World Population Trends

An Overview


11-12

Source: Post 1920 from UN; pre 1920 from Ralph Thomlinson, 1965 and Brock & Web 1973. The figures to generate the chart were gathered from Table-3.3 at p65 in Bhende and Kanitkar, 2001 (1 AD to 1990) and from UN World Pop Prospects (2000 to 2050)

World Population 1 AD to 2050

0 50 100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

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1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

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1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

Year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10Bi

llions

Pop

ulat

ion

Source: Post 1920 from UN; pre 1920 from Ralph Thomlinson, 1965 and Brock & Web 1973. The figures to generate the chart were gathered from Table-3.3 at p65 in Bhende and Kanitkar, 2001 (1 AD to 1990) and from UN World Pop Prospects (2000 to 2050)

World Population 1800 to 2050

1800

1810

1820

1830

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

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1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Billio

nsP

opul

atio

n


13-14

Source: Post 1950 from UN; pre 1950 from Donald J. Bogue, 1969. The figures to generate the chart were gathered from Table-3.7 at p71 in Bhende and Kanitkar, 2001.

Time Trend of Pop Growth Rate in Developed and Developing Regions

1650

1660

1670

1680

1690

1700

1710

1720

1730

1740

1750

1760

1770

1780

1790

1800

1810

1820

1830

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Year

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Av.

Ann

ual P

opul

atio

n G

row

th R

ate Developed Regions Developing Regions

Time Trend of Pop Growth Rate in World Regions

Source: Post 1950 from UN; pre 1950 from Donald J. Bogue, 1969. The figures to generate the chart were gathered from Table-3.7 at p71 in Bhende and Kanitkar, 2001; Combined Asia estimates for 1650 to 1950 adopted for South Asia.

1650

1660

1670

1680

1690

1700

1710

1720

1730

1740

1750

1760

1770

1780

1790

1800

1810

1820

1830

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Year

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Av.

Ann

ual P

opul

atio

n G

row

th R

ate

EuropeNoth Am

Lat AmSouth Asia

Africa Oceania


15-16

World - Netmigration, 2006

Source: Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Net_migration_rate_world.PNG#file); Data from CIA's The World Fact Book (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2112.html) accessed in April, 2006.

Worldwide Births / Day (1992) : 250,000Worldwide Deaths / Day(1989): 25,000Net migrants (S->N) / Day : 5,000Annually less than 1 of 2000 inhabitants in developing country migtrates to North (developed countries).Thus:

Migration is of lower order magnitude compared to natural increase for pop dynamicsHowever, reduction in barriers to migration, as well as socioeconomic and political issues arising from migration will gain importance in 21st century.

Migration & Population Dynamics

Source: Oberg Sture. Spatial and economic factors in future south-noth migration. in: Lutz Wolfgang. The future population of the world. What can we assume today? Revised and Updated Edition ed. London: Earthscan Publications; 1996; pp. 336-358.


17-18


Models and Theories on Population Dynamics


19-20

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

Generalised explanation of decline in mortality & fertilityVisualised Four StagesStage-1 (premodern, pretransition, high stationary): High fertility & high fluctuating mortality.Stage-2 (Transitional, Industrialising, Early expanding): Declining death rate, but high birth rates.Stage-3 (Transitional, Industrialising, Late expanding): Low death rate & declining birth rates.

Source: Picture downloaded from site of Barcelona Field Study Ctr; http://geographyfieldwork.com/DemographicTransition.htm

Firs proposed by Waren Thompson, 1929; developed by CP Blacker,, Frank Notestein, Ansely J. Coale & Edgar M. Hoover.

Stage-4 (Industrial): Both birth & death rates are low.Stage-5 (Post transition): Low mortality & very low fertility. Declining populations.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Demographic_change_in_Sweden_1735-2000.gif


21-22

CBR-Birth Rate

CDR-Death Rate

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

Year

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Eve

nt (B

irth

/ Dea

th) /

100

0 P

opIndia - Birth & Death Rates

Source: Bhende and Kanitkar, Principles of Pop. Studies Tables 7.10, 7.11 (CDR), Table 9.11 (CBR) and SRS Annual Reports.

Malthusian Theory

Thomas R. Malthus, 1766-1834; Anglican clergy, & British scholar in political economy & demography1797: Anglican country curate1805: Prof History & Pol Econ1798-1826: An essay on the principles of population (6 eds)Population increases geometrically (1,2,4,8,16, 32..)Food production increases arithmetically (1,2,3,4,...).Preventive checks: Birth control by moral restraint - postpone marriage & celibacy. Time

Pop

ulat

ion

Food Sup

ply

Popula

tion

Crisis Point


23-24

The Club of Rome

1972: The Limits to Growth1993: Beyond the Limits, 20 Yr update2004: Limits to Growth: The 30 yr updateModelled world population, industrialization, pollution, food production and resource depletion.Assumed exponential population growth and linear technological innovation.

Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers have authored all three books, William W. Behrens III was also a coauthors for the first book in 1972, Keithe Suter is a member of the Club of Rome , since 1991. The quote here based on his interview to Australian Broadcasting Corporation, accessed on 21/10/09 at http://www.abc.net.au/science/slab/rome/default.htm. Graham Turners findings as reported by Jeff Hecht,"Prophesy of economic collapse 'coming true'", NewScientist, 17 November 2008 and cited in Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth accessed on 21/10/09

A society formed in 1968 of academicians, scientists, civil servants & others, now based in Paris.

Predicts economic and societal collapse in 21st century.Keith Suter, 1999: Most of the scenarios pointed to a major economic crisis happening in the early 1990s. This is not what happened. In 2008 Graham Turner examined 30 yrs of reality and found that changes in industrial production, food production and pollution are consistent with predictions in 1972.

Date LB-Billion UB-Billions References1891 6.0 6.0 Ravenstein, 18911925 7.7 9.5 Penck, 19251945 0.9 2.8 Pearson & Harper, 19451960 30.0 30.0 Baade, 19601967 47.0 157.0 Clark, 19671967 41.0 41.0 Revelle, 19671973 35.0 40.0 Mückenhausen, 19731975 2.7 6.7 Buringh et al, 1977, 751978 1000.0 1000.0 Marchetti, 19781981 2.0 2.0 Westing, 1981; Mann, 19811982 No limit No limit Simon, 1981, Kahn 19821982 3.6 33.2 FAO/UNFPA/IIASA (Higgins

etal, 1982) for 20001983 7.5 7.5 Gilland, 19831984 6.1 6.1 Resources for the Future,

19841992 2.8 5.5 World Hunger Program

(Cohen, 1992)1993 5.5 5.5 Ehrlich et al 1993

Studies on Eearths Carrying Capacity

Source: Gerhard K. Heilig, in Wolfgang Lutz Ed "The Future Population of the World, 1996, Earthcan, London; Tbl-10.1 page 197.


25-26

Ester Boserup, 1910-1999, Danish Agricultural Economist.1965: The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure; 1981: Population and Technological Change: A Study of Long-term Trends

Propositions:Population determines agriculture, not the other way.People invent their way out of crisis.The 'Malthusian Trap' may in fact drive technological innovation.Necessity is the mother of invention.

Critic:If 'crisis' were driving tech. innovation, most advanced agri-tech should be found in areas with high population pressure.

Agricultural Intensification Theory

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ester_Boserup, accessed on 21/10/09

People as the Ultimate Resource

Julian L. Simon, 1932 - 1998; Was Prof. Bus Adm Univ. of Maryland, Sr. Fellow, Cato Institute. 1981: The Ultimate Resource.1984: The Resourcefull Earth (Coed by Herman Kahn)1996: The Ultimate Resource 2.

As a resource becomes scarce, its price rises.High price is an incentive to discover more, ration it, and develop substitutes.Although supplies are limited physically, scope for recycling, more efficient technology, and discovery of new alternatives, in effect means physical resources are unlimited.Ultimate resource is human capacity to adapt and invent.Population is the solution to resource scaricities and environmental problems.

Source: Based on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ultimate_Resource; and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Lincoln_Simon, accessed on 21/10/09


27-28

The Simon - Ehrlic Wager!

Julian L. Simon author of The Ultimate Resource (1981, 1996).Paul Ehrlich author of The Population Bomb, which argued that mankind was facing a demographic catastrophe with the rate of population growth quickly outstripping growth in the supply of food and resources.Both had a bet in 1980.Ehrlic chose 5 metals: copper, chromium, nickel, tin, & tungsten.Simon bet that their prices would go down.Ehrlich bet they would go up.The basket of goods costing $1000 in 1980 went down by 57%As a result, in October 1990, Paul Ehrlich mailed Julian Simon a check for $576.07 to settle the wager in Simon's favor.


But the Jury is Still Out!

Subsequently, Simon Lost a Similar Bet on Timbre Prices, with David

South.

Source: Based on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Lincoln_Simon, accessed on 21/10/09


29-30

Demographic DividendDemographic Window Of Opportunity

1998: David E. Bloom & jeffrey G. Williamson 2000: David E. Bloom, David Canning and Pia Malaney2003: David E. Bloom, David Canning and Jaypee Sevilla


Late in demographic transition, as fertility rate falls, dependency rates decline.Teh magnitude of demographic dividend depends on ability of the economy to absorb and productively employ extra workers.A good part of the rise in economic growth in Asian economies is due to rising share of working age population.


And the Jury is Really Out!


31-32

population dynamics & public policy - ihs · population pyramids age-sex pyramids / age...

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