pmp risk management

PMP Preparation

PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT

Waleed El-Naggar, MBA, PMP

The processes of conducting risk management

planning, identification, analysis, response

planning and monitoring and control on a project

Objectives are to increase the probability and

impact of positive events and decrease the

probability and impact of negative events In the

project

Project Risk Management

PMP Preparation - Risk Management 2

Mapping the Processes


Initia

tionPlanning Executing Controlling Closing

11. Risk 11.1 Plan Risk

Management

11.2 Identify Risks

11.3 Perform Qualitative

Risk Analysis

11.4 Perform

Quantitative Risk

Analysis

11.5 Plan Risk Response

11.6 Monitor and

Control Risk

PM

Knowledge Area

Process

Group

The process of defining how to conduct risk

management activities for a project

Important to provide sufficient resources and

time for risk management activities, and to

establish an agreed upon basis for evaluating

risk.

11.1 Plan Risk Management


Plan Risk Management


Project Scope Statement

Cost Management Plan

Schedule Management Plan

Communication Management Plan

Enterprise Environmental Factors

Organizational Process Assets

Plan Risk Management: Inputs


Planning Meetings and Analysis

Project teams meet with stakeholders

High level plans for risk management are

define in these meetings

Plan Risk Management: Tools & Techniques


Risk Management Plan

Methodology

Roles and Responsibilities

Budgeting

Timing

Risk Categories

Plan Risk Management: Outputs


Risk Categories

Risk Breakdown Structure



Definition of Risk Probability and Impact



Probability and Impact matrix

Revised Stakeholders' Tolerance

Reporting Formats

Tracking



Q: “ An uncommon state of nature, characterized by the

absence of any information related to a desired

outcome” , is a common definition for:

A. An act of God

B. An amount at stake

C. Uncertainty

D. Risk aversion

Answer C


Identify Risks is the process of determining

which risks may affect the project and

documenting their characteristics

11.2 Identify Risks


1. Risk Management Plan

2. Activity Cost Estimates

3. Activity Duration Estimation

4. Scope Baseline

5. Stakeholder Register

6. Cost management Plan

Identify Risks: Inputs


7. Schedule Management Plan

8. Quality Management Plan

9. Project Documents

10. Enterprise Environmental Factors

11. Organizational Process Assets

Identify Risks: Inputs (contd.)


Documentation Reviews

Information Gathering Techniques

Brainstorming

Delphi Technique

Interviewing

Root Cause Analysis

Checklist Analysis

Identify Risks: Tools & Techniques


Assumptions Analysis

Diagramming Techniques

Cause-and-effect diagrams

System or process flow charts

Influence diagrams

SWOT Analysis (Strength, Weakness, Opportunities,

Threats)

Expert Judgment

Identify Risks: Tools & Techniques (contd.)


Risk Register

List of identified risks

List of potential responses

Identify Risks: Outputs


Q: Risk tolerances are determined in order to help:

A. The team rank the project risks

B. The project manager estimate the project

C. The team schedule the project

D. Management know how other managers will act

to the project

Answer A


The process of prioritizing risks for further

analysis or action by assessing and combining

their probability of occurrence and impact

11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis


Risk Register


Project Scope Statement


Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis: Inputs


Probability and Impact Matrix

Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis: Tools & Techniques


Risk Probability and Impact Assessment

Risk Data Quality Assessment

Risk Categorization

Risk Urgency Assessment

Expert Judgment

Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis: Tools & Techniques


Risk Register Updates

Relative ranking or priority list of project risks

Risks grouped by categories

Causes of risk or project areas requiring particular attention

List of risks requiring response in the near-term

List of risks for additional analysis and response

Watch lists of low-priority risks

Trends in qualitative risk analysis results

Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis: Outputs


The process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives.

Quantitative analysis is performed on risks that have been prioritized by the qualitative risk analysis process as potentially and substantially impacting the project's competing demands.

11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis


Risk Register


Cost Management Plan

Schedule Management Plan


Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis:

Inputs


Data Gathering and Representation Techniques

Interviewing

Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis: Tools & Techniques


Probability Distribution



Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling

Techniques

Sensitivity analysis

Expected monetary value analysis

Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis:

Tools & Techniques


Sample Sensitivity Analysis


Expected monetary value analysis :

Example Decision tree diagram



Modeling And Simulation

Cost/Risk simulation results

Expert Judgment




Probabilistic analysis of the project

Probability of achieving cost and time objectives

Prioritized list of quantified risks

Trends in quantitative risk analysis results

Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis: Outputs


Q: If a project has a 60% chance of a US $ 100,000 profit and a 40% chance of a US $ 100,000 loss, the expected monetary value for the project is :

A. $ 100,000 profit

B. $ 60,000 loss

C. $ 20,000 profit

D. $ 40,000 loss

Answer C

Quiz


The process of developing options and actions to enhance opportunities and to reduce threats to project objectives.

11.5 Plan Risk Responses


Risk Register


Plan Risk Responses: Inputs


1. Strategies for negative risks or threats

Avoid

Transfer

Mitigate

Accept

Plan Risk Responses: Tools & Techniques


Response Strategies for Threats Avoidance:

Risk prevention

Changing the plan to eliminate a risk by avoiding the cause/source of risk

Protect project from impact of risk

Examples:

Change the implementation strategy

Do it ourselves (do not subcontract)

Reduce scope to avoid high risk deliverables

Adopt a familiar technology or product

38PMP Preparation - Risk Management

Response Strategies for Threats Mitigation

Seeks to reduce the impact or probability of the risk event to an acceptable threshold

Be proactive: Take early actions to reduce impact/probability and don’t wait until the risk hits your project

Examples:

Staging - More testing - Prototype

Redundancy planning

Use more qualified resources


40

Response Strategies for Threats Transfer

Shift responsibility of risk consequence to another party

Does NOT eliminate risk

Most effective in dealing with financial exposure

Examples:

Buy/subcontract: move liabilities

Selecting type of Procurement contracts: Fixed Price

Insurance: liabilities + bonds + Warranties

PMP Preparation - Risk Management

41

Acceptance

Used when project plan cannot be changed & other risk response strategy cannot be used

Active Acceptance

Develop a contingency plan to execute if the risk occur

Contingency plan = be ready with Plan B

Passive Acceptance

Deal with the risks as they occur = No Plan B prepared

Contingency allowance/ reserve

Established amount of reserve (e.g.: time and/or money) to account for the identified known risks.

Amount is decided based on probability and impact

Response Strategies for Threats

PMP Preparation - Risk Management

Strategies for Positive Risks or Opportunities

Exploit: Ensure opportunity is realized

Ex: Assigning organization most talented resources to the project to reduce cost lower than originally planned.

Share: Allocating some or all of the ownership to third part best able to capture the opportunity

Ex: Joint ventures, special-purpose companies

Enhance: Increase the probability and/or the positive impact of the opportunity

Ex: Adding more resources to finish early

Accept: Welling to take advantage of opportunity if it comes, but not actively pursuing it.

Plan Risk Responses: Tools & Techniques


Contingent Response Strategies

Expert Judgment

Plan Risk Responses: Tools &

Techniques



Risk-Related Contract Decisions

Project management Plan Updates

Project Documents Updates

Assumptions log updates

Technical documentation updates

Plan Risk Responses: Outputs


Q: Purchasing insurance is BEST considered

an example of risk:

A. Mitigation

B. Transference

C. Acceptance

D. Avoidance

Answer B


The process of implementing risk response plans,

tracking identified risks, monitoring residual

risks, identifying new risks, and evaluating risk

process effectiveness throughout the project.

Monitor and Control Risks


Risk Register

Project Management Plan

Work Performance Information

Performance Reports

Monitor and Control Risks: Inputs


Risk Assessment

Risk audits

Variance and Trend Analysis

Technical Performance Measurement

Reserve Analysis

Status Meetings

Monitor and Control Risks: Tools &

Techniques



Organizational Process Updates

Change Requests

Recommended corrective actions

Recommended preventive actions

Project management Plan Updates

Project Document Updates

Monitor and Control Risks: Outputs


Q: What should be done with a non- critical

Risk?

A. Document them for historical use on other

projects

B. Document them and revisit during project

execution

C. Document them and set them aside because

they are already covered in your contingency

plans

D. Document them and give them to the customer

Answer B


Thank you

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