risk analysis : pmp- project risk management
DESCRIPTION
In this presentation we look at approach of analyzing risks, we get into details of qualitative risk analysis and quantitative risk analysis. This presentation will help professionals who are preparing for PMP certification examTRANSCRIPT
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PMP is a registered trademark of the Project Management Institute, Inc.
Qualitative and
Quantitative
Risk Analysis –
PMP® Prep Topic
Saket Bansal
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Agenda
About Risk
Project Risk Management
Qualitative Risk Analysis
Quantitative Risk Analysis
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Risk
" Project risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs,
as a positive or negative effect on one or more project
objectives such as scope, schedule, cost, and quality. "
- PMBOK® Guide Fifth Edition
Uncertain Risk Impact
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Risk appetitte , tolerance and threshold
Risk
Appetite
Risk
Tolerance
Risk
Threshold
We take high
risks.
We can take risk
of up to 100,000
USD
We can not take risk
of 200,000 USD
with 50% Probability
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Project Risk Management
Plan Risk Management
Identify Risks
Perform Qualitative
Risk Analysis
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Plan Risk Response
Control Risks
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Identify Risks
If CAUSE exists, EVENT may occur leading to EFFECT
Risk
Description
Potential
Cause
Risk Priority Risk
Category
Risk Impact
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Risk Analysis
I need to prioritize risks
so that I can take care
of high impact items
first
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Qualitative Risk Analysis
Qualitative Risk
Analysis
Pro
babili
ty
and I
mpact
Ris
k R
ankin
g
Mark for further
Analysis
Watch list
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How to do Qualitative Risk Assesment
Check the
definition of
probability
and impact
Perform
probability and
impact
assessment
Use Probability
and Impact
Matrix to
calculate the
risk exposure
Risk Data Quality
Assessment
Risk Categorizations
Risk Urgency
Assessment
Expert Judgment
Update Risk
Register
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Quantitative Risk Analysis
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis is the process of numerically analyzing the
effect of identified risks on overall project objectives.
- PMBOK ® Guide Fifth Edition
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Numercial Analysis Provides
Probabilistic
Analysis
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Quantitative Risk Analysis Tools
• Inteviewing
• Probability distributions
• Sensitivity analysis
• Expected Monetory Value Analysis
• Modeling and Simulation
• Expert Judgement
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Qualitative vs Quantitaitve Risk Analysis
Addresses individual risks
descriptively
Example :
Extension of winter season may
cause delay in deliverable
validation
Predicts likely project outcomes
based on combined effects of risks
Example:
There is 50% probability of
completing the project in 500,000
USD
Qualitative Quantitative
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Qualitative vs Quantitaitve Risk Analysis
Assesses the discreet probability of
occurrence and impact on objective
if it does occur
•Uses probability distributions to
characterize the risk’s probability
and impact
•Uses project model (e.g.
Schedule, cost estimate)
•Estimates the likelihood of
meeting targets and contingency
needed to achieve desired level
of comfort
Qualitative Quantitative
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Qualitative vs Quantitaitve Risk Analysis
Leads to quantitative risk
analysis
Identifies risks with greatest
effects on overall project
risk
Qualitative Quantitative
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What Next ?
Plan Risk Management
Identify Risks
Perform Qualitative
Risk Analysis
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Plan Risk Response
Control Risks
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