Plenary Panel Introduction

Will universities become extinct in the networked

world?

Plenary Panel Introduction

Will universities become extinct in the networked

world?

ICDE 21st World Conference

Hong Kong, 2004

The Networked World:Internet Access Population (millions)

The Networked World:Internet Access Population (millions)

USA 182.1 Japan 56.1 China 45.8 Germany 44.1 UK 34.3 South Korea 25.6 Canada 16.8 Australia 12.8 Netherlands 10.4 Sweden 6.7

Source: A C Nielsen, Sept 2003Source: A C Nielsen, Sept 2003

Total global population estimated at 655 million

Joseph Schumpeter (1934) predicted that every 50 years or so,

technological revolutions would cause

"gales of creative destruction”

in which old industries would be swept away and replaced by new

ones.

Driver for ChangeDriver for Change

'The death of distance as a determinant of the cost of

communications will probably be the single most important economic

force shaping society in the first half of the 21st century'.

Cairncross (1997)

The Knowledge Explosion

The Knowledge Explosion

Over 90% of the relevant literature in many technical fields, such as biotechnology,

astronomy, computers and software, and environmental sciences, has been produced

since 1985.

J B Quinn (2001)

Traditional programmatic approaches to education simply cannot keep up………...

Explosion in DemandExplosion in Demand A recent IBM report forecasts a threefold

(US$4.5 trillion) jump in global education expenditure during the next 13 years.

(Source: Richard Gluyas, New Nabs e-School Deal http://finance.news.com.au, 22 April 2000).

The World Bank expects the number of higher education students will more than double from 70 million to 160 million by 2025.

Leadership Challenge: From Elite to Mass Higher Education

Leadership Challenge: From Elite to Mass Higher Education

In 1946: 8 Australian universities

teaching about 26,000 students.

In 2003: 38 Australian universities

teaching about 890,000 students.

Future ProjectionsFuture Projections

By 2005, e-learning will be the single most used application on the web.

(Source: Harris, Logan & Lundy, Gartner Research, 2001).

Corporate investment in e-learning will grow from US$2.1 billion in 2001 to US$33.4 billion in 2005.

The Knowledge-based Economy

The Knowledge-based Economy

There are increasing signs that our current paradigms for higher education, the nature of our academic programs, the organization of our colleges and universities, and the way that we finance, conduct and distribute the

services of higher education may not be able to adapt to the demands of our time.

J J Duderstadt (2001)

“Any new technology environment

eventually creates a totally new

human environment”

Marshall McLuhan

“Any new technology environment

eventually creates a totally new

human environment”

Marshall McLuhan

The e-RevolutionThe e-Revolution

Leadership?Leadership?

The fact that the present traditional approaches based on conventional

classroom-based teaching and learning will not be capable of meeting the escalating

demand for higher education in the knowledge society has apparently failed to

register in the minds of many executive managers.

The fact that the present traditional approaches based on conventional

classroom-based teaching and learning will not be capable of meeting the escalating

demand for higher education in the knowledge society has apparently failed to

register in the minds of many executive managers.

Leadership ChallengeLeadership Challenge

Stepping onto many a university

campus in 2004 - as the information

economy gains momentum – a visitor

from 1950 would feel quite at home.

Leadership ChallengeLeadership Challenge

“Technology is the key variable

making possible, and imperative, the

reinvention of the corporation”.

Stace & Dunphy (2001)

Institutional Capacity for Change

Institutional Capacity for Change

While there is a great deal of business literature on companies that have “restructured” and re-

engineered” to respond to new competitive threats and rapidly changing market conditions,

universities are generally regarded as being stubbornly resistant to change as a result of the typically conservative and reactionary pressures both internal and external to the organization.

While there is a great deal of business literature on companies that have “restructured” and re-

engineered” to respond to new competitive threats and rapidly changing market conditions,

universities are generally regarded as being stubbornly resistant to change as a result of the typically conservative and reactionary pressures both internal and external to the organization.

The problems faced by mass higher education today come from a system which has become mass in its size but remains elite in its values.

The recent external changes of numbers, structures, finance, and governance have not been matched by appropriate internal changes of values, purpose and activities.

Source: Wagner (1995) p.21

Trying to change a university is like trying to move a graveyard

---

it is extremely difficult and you don’t get much

internal support.

Organizational InertiaOrganizational Inertia

The transition from the Industrial to the

Information Age was encapsulated by

Dolence and Norris (1995), who argued

that to survive organisations would

need to change from rigid, formula

driven entities to organisations that are

“fast, flexible and fluid”.

The transition from the Industrial to the

Information Age was encapsulated by

Dolence and Norris (1995), who argued

that to survive organisations would

need to change from rigid, formula

driven entities to organisations that are

“fast, flexible and fluid”.

Fast, Flexible and FluidFast, Flexible and Fluid

Random Acts of Innovation

Random Acts of Innovation

The potential benefits of e-learning will not be achieved in the present vertical academic silos, which are typified by

the “random acts of innovation” of individual academics rather than by

systemic strategic planning.

The potential benefits of e-learning will not be achieved in the present vertical academic silos, which are typified by

the “random acts of innovation” of individual academics rather than by

systemic strategic planning.

Institutional SustainabilityInstitutional Sustainability

Fast, flexible and fluid organizations that can provide: customized, high quality, value added services that satisfy customer needs with speed

and accuracy at the appropriate price point , are the only institutions that will survive and thrive in the 21st century.

Fast, flexible and fluid organizations that can provide: customized, high quality, value added services that satisfy customer needs with speed

and accuracy at the appropriate price point , are the only institutions that will survive and thrive in the 21st century.

“Fantasyland”“Fantasyland”

Is this “fantasyland” for universities typified by the hierarchical, bureaucratic academic structure in which the provision of effective

services to students is significantly inhibited by personal agendas and

dependence on management via multiple layers of committees that move with

glacier-like momentum?

Is this “fantasyland” for universities typified by the hierarchical, bureaucratic academic structure in which the provision of effective

services to students is significantly inhibited by personal agendas and

dependence on management via multiple layers of committees that move with

glacier-like momentum?

Organizational InertiaOrganizational Inertia

“The greatest danger in times of

turbulence, is not the turbulence……..

it is to act with yesterday’s logic.”

Peter Drucker (1991)

In 1803 the British deployed a military attachment to stand on the Cliffs of Dover to watch for Napoleon.

• It was not until 1927 that the detachment was disbanded.

• Napoleon Bonaparte died in 1821.

Source: Stace & Dunphy (2001)

Will universities become extinct in the networked

world?

Will universities become extinct in the networked

world?

Within the next decade, the view that universities, like dinosaurs, may be unable to adapt to the

increasing pressures of technological development and globalization is likely to gather

empirical support.