Perspectivas de Mercado

MAÍZ

Abril, 2018

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 2Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

Introducción

Contexto Histórico

Análisis Fundamental

Análisis Estacional

Volatilidad Implícita

Contexto Histórico

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 4Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 5Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

Análisis Fundamental

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 7Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 8Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

Análisis Fundamental

2017/18 Ending Stocks Estimates

April

USDA Average Range

March

USDA

2016-17

USDA

Corn 2.182 2.192 2.050-2.265 2.127 2.293

Soybeans 0.550 0.570 0.520-0.609 0.555 0.302

Wheat 1.064 1.040 1.010-1.080 1.034 1.181

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 9Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

1,0

00 M

etr

ic T

ons

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

(Updated April 10, 2018)

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 10Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

U.S. Corn Stocks/Use Ratio

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

(Updated April 10, 2018)

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 11Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bushels

Per

Acre

U.S. Corn Trendline Yield

Source: USDA Economic Research Service

Source: USDA World Agricultural Outlook BoardSource: USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board

(Updated April 10, 2018)

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 12Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

100,0

00 B

ushels

Total U.S. Domestic Corn Use

Ethanol & by-products

Other Food, Seed & Industrial

Feed and Residual

Source: USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board & Economic Research Service

(Updated April 10, 2018)

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 13Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

100,0

00 B

ushels

U.S. Feed and Residual Corn Use

Feed and Residual

Source: USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board & Economic Research Service

(Updated April 10, 2018)

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 14Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

100,0

00 B

ushels

U.S. Corn Consumption for Ethanol

Source: USDA Economic Research Service

(Updated April 10, 2018)

Oferta y Demanda Global

Cociente inventarios/usos mundial

Producción fuera de los EE.UU.

Uso interno mundial

La siguiente tabla resalta los cambios realizados a la Hoja de Balance

global para el ciclo 2016/17 & 2017/18

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 17Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 18Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

Crop Year

Region

Beginning

Stocks Production Imports Feed Exports

Ending

Stocks Stocks/Use

World -1.07 0.26 -0.08 0.37 -0.02 -0.96 -0.09%

United States 0 0 0 -0.02 0 0

Major Exporters 0 0.07 -0.13 0 0.09 -0.15

Argentina 0 0 0 0 0.49 -0.48

South Africa 0 0.07 -0.04 0 -0.3 0.33

Major Importers -0.02 -0.02 0.01 0 -0.01 -0.02

Egypt 0 0 0 0 0 0

EU-27 0 0 0 0 0 0

Japan 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mexico 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Asia -0.03 0 0.02 0 -0.01 -0.01

South Korea 0 0 0 0 0 0

Selected Other

Brazil 0 0 -0.1 0 -0.1 0

Canada 0 0 0 0 0 0

China 0 0 0 0 0 0

FSU-12 0 0 0 0 0 0

Ukraine 0 0 0 0 0 0

2016/2017 April, 2018

World Corn Balance Sheet in Million Metric Tons

Supply Use

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 19Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

Crop Year

Region

Beginning

Stocks Production Imports Feed Exports

Ending

Stocks Stocks/Use

World -0.96 -5.67 -1.09 -3.82 -3.36 -1.39 -0.04%

United States 0 0 0 -1.27 0 1.4

Major Exporters -0.15 -5.3 -0.1 -1 -3 -1.35

Argentina -0.48 -3 0 -1 -1 -1.29

South Africa 0.33 0.2 -0.1 0 0 0.43

Major Importers -0.02 0.18 -1.3 -1.65 0.04 -0.42

Egypt 0 0 0 0 0 0

EU-27 0 0 0 -0.7 0 0

Japan 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mexico 0 0.3 -0.3 0 0 0

Southeast Asia -0.01 -0.11 -0.5 -0.6 0.04 -0.25

South Korea 0 0 0 0 0 0

Selected Other

Brazil 0 -2.5 0 0 -2 -0.5

Canada 0 0 0 0 0 0

China 0 0 0 0 0 0

FSU-12 0 -0.1 0 -0.1 0 0

Ukraine 0 0 0 0 0 0

Supply Use

2017/2018 April, 2018

World Corn Balance Sheet in Million Metric Tons

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 20Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

1,0

00 M

etr

ic T

ons

World Corn Ending Stocks

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

(Updated April 10, 2018)

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 21Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

World Corn Stocks/Use Ratio

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

(Updated April 10, 2018)

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 22Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

World vs U.S. Corn Stocks/Use Ratio

World U.S.

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

(Updated April 10, 2018)

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 23Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

1,0

00 M

etr

ic T

ons

Major Foreign Corn Producers

Southeast Asia Mexico Argentina

Brazil E.U. China

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

(Updated April 10, 2018)

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 24Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

1,0

00 M

etr

ic T

ons

Major Foreign Corn ExportersAnnual Exports

Ukraine Argentina Brazil

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

(Updated April 10, 2018)

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 25Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

1,0

00 M

etr

ic T

ons

Brazil Corn Production

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

(Updated April 10, 2018)

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 26Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

1,0

00 M

etr

ic T

ons

Argentina Corn Production

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

(Updated April 10, 2018)

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 27Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

1,0

00 M

etr

ic T

onsBrazil Corn Exports

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

(Updated April 10, 2018)

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 28Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

1,0

00 M

etr

ic T

ons

Argentina Corn Exports

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

(Updated April 10, 2018)

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 29Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

1,0

00 M

etr

ic T

onsMajor Corn Importers

E.U. Egypt Southeast Asia

South Korea Mexico Japan

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

(Updated April 10, 2018)

Análisis Estacional

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 31Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

Volatilidad Implícita

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 33Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 34Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

• Diseño y Administración de Coberturas

• Políticas de Coberturas & Procedimientos de Presentación de Informes

• Guías de Modelos Para Tomar Decisiones de Precios

• Evaluación de Riesgo

• Educación y Entrenamiento

There is a risk of loss in futures trading. The information contained in this publication is taken from sources

believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC as to accuracy or

completeness, and is intended for purposes of information and education only. Nothing therein should be

considered as a trading recommendation by Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. The rules and regulations

of the individual exchanges should be consulted as the authoritative source on all contract specifications and

regulations. There is a risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Copyright 2017 Commodity & Ingredient

Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

Mike Shawver •VP New Business Development 120 South LaSalle St. Suite 2200Chicago, IL 60603 USA

Tel: 312-596-7300Fax: 312-596-7722

Christian Villamil •Client Service ManagerArturo Zavala •Account ExecutiveCarlos Silva •Account Executive

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