perspectivas de mercado trigo · commodity & ingredient hedging 5 trading futures and options...

Perspectivas de MercadoTrigo

Abril, 2018

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 2Trading futures and options carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. © 2018 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

Introducción

Contexto Histórico

Análisis Fundamental

Análisis Estacional

3

Contexto Histórico

10




2017/18 Ending Stocks Estimates

April

USDA Average Range

March

USDA

2016-17

USDA

Corn 2.182 2.192 2.050-2.265 2.127 2.293

Soybeans 0.550 0.570 0.520-0.609 0.555 0.302

Wheat 1.064 1.040 1.010-1.080 1.034 1.181


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

1,0

00 M

etr

ic T

ons

U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

(Updated April 10, 2018)


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1,0

00 M

etr

ic T

ons

U.S. Domestic Wheat Consumption

Foo d, See d, and Industrial Use Fee d Use




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

1,0

00 M

etr

ic T

ons

U.S. Wheat Exports





Conjunto de los trigos 52.9% Mbu 2.3% Mbu 50.6%

Trigo duro rojo de invierno 68.0% Mbu 7.1% Mbu 60.9%

Trigo duro rojo de primavera 37.7% Mbu 1.4% Mbu 36.3%

Trigo suave rojo de invierno 75.3% Mbu -1.0% Mbu 76.3%

Superficie de siembra (Millones de acres)

Conjunto de los trigos de Invierno 32.7

Conjunto de los trigos de Primavera 12.6


190 mb

As/of 04/10/2018


190/504 = 37.7%

As/of 04/10/2018


225 mb

As/of 04/10/2018


225/299 = 75.3%

As/of 04/10/2018


545 mb

As/of 04/10/2018


545/802 = 68.0%

As/of 04/10/2018

Oferta y Demanda Global

Cociente inventarios/usos mundial

Producción fuera de los EE.UU.

Uso interno mundial


Crop Year

Region

Beginning

Stocks Production Imports Feed Exports

Ending

Stocks Stocks/Use

World 2 0.96 0.06 1.14 -0.02 2.33 0.28%

United States 0 0 0 -0.81 0 0.81

Major Exporters 0 0 0 1.5 -0.7 -1.15

Argentina 0 0 0 0 0.3 0

Australia 0 0 0 0 0 0

Canada 0 0 0 0 0 0

EU-25 0 0 0 1.5 -1 -1.15

Major Importers 1.9 0.83 -0.65 0.87 -0.18 2.21

Brazil 0 0 -0.5 0 -0.3 -0.1

China 0 0 0 0 0 0

Selected Middle East 6 1.9 -0.09 -0.05 0 0.07 2.59

North Africa 0 0.84 -0.5 0.07 0.05 0.3

Pakistan 0 0.1 0 0 0 0.1

SE Asia 0 0 0.2 0.75 0 -0.75

Selected Other

India 0 0 0 0 0 0.69

FSU-12 0 0.02 -0.14 0.05 1.47 -1.63

Russia 0 0 -0.1 0 1 -1.1

Kazakstan 0 0 0.01 0 0.5 -0.49

Ukraine 0 0 0 0 0 0

2017/2018 April, 2018

World Wheat Balance Sheet in Million Metric Tons

Supply Use


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

1,0

00 M

etr

ic T

ons

World Wheat Ending Stocks




0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

World Wheat Stocks/Use Ratio




0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

1,0

00 M

etr

ic T

ons

Major Foreign Wheat Producers

Russia FSU-12 Australia Argentina Canada E.U.




0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

1,0

00 M

etr

ic T

ons

Major Foreign Wheat Exporters

Russia FSU-12 Australia Argentina Canada E.U.




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

1,0

00 M

etr

ic T

ons

Major Foreign Wheat Importers

Middle East Southeast Asia North Africa



31

Análisis Estacional

Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

35

• Diseño y Administración de Coberturas

• Políticas de Coberturas & Procedimientos de Presentación de Informes

• Guías de Modelos Para Tomar Decisiones de Precios

• Evaluación de Riesgo

• Educación y Entrenamiento

There is a risk of loss in futures trading. The information contained in this publication is taken from sources

believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC as to accuracy or

completeness, and is intended for purposes of information and education only. Nothing therein should be

considered as a trading recommendation by Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. The rules and regulations

of the individual exchanges should be consulted as the authoritative source on all contract specifications and

regulations. There is a risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Copyright 2017 Commodity & Ingredient

Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved.

Mike Shawver •VP New Business Development 120 South LaSalle St. Suite 2200

Chicago, IL 60603 USA

Tel: 312-596-7300

Fax: 312-596-7722

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