pennsylvania democratic presidential primary poll...

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary Poll

4/25/16

Sponsor(s) Fox 29 Philadelphia WTXF

Target Population Pennsylvania; likely presidential primary voters; Democrats

Sampling Method Blended sample; mixed mode: Likely Democratic primary voters were selected at random from a list of registered voters. Only voters determined likely to participate in the 2016 Pennsylvania Democratic primary were included in the sample. Landline: registered voters were contacted on the evening of April 24th, 2016 using an interactive voice response system. Mobile: registered voters were contacted on the evening of April 24th, 2016 on their mobile devices. Respondents answered an identical survey in visual form.

Weighting Two questions served as selection variables. The first question asked whether the respondent plans to vote in the primary on April 26th; all responses other than “definitely,” “considering,” or “voted absentee” were excluded from the dataset. Mobile respondents and respondents who are considering voting were then asked if they knew where their primary will be held (e.g. church, school); all responses of “I am unsure” were excluded from the dataset. The poll was weighted for age, race, gender, and region using propensity scores. Weighting benchmarks were determined using a calculation of historic primary voter turnout, external analysis, and internal projections.

Total Number of Respondents 942 (weighted)

Margin of Error ±3.2% (95% confidence)


4/25/16

1) How likely are you to vote in the 2016 Pennsylvania Democratic primary on Tuesday, April 26th to

determine the Democratic nominee for president? a) I will definitely vote b) I am considering voting c) I have already voted absentee d) I have not decided, or I do not plan on voting [EXCLUDED]

Likely

Frequency Percent

Definitely 904 95.9

Considering 26 2.7

Absentee 13 1.3

Total 942 100.0

2) [IF Q1 = B OR MOBILE] Where is your voting location? a) At a school b) At a church c) At a fire house d) At a community center or government building e) Other f) I am unsure [EXCLUDED]

Location

Frequency Percent

School 42 22.8

Church 46 25.1

Fire House 37 20.5

Community Center 47 25.6

Other 11 6.0

Total 183 100.0


4/25/16 3) If the 2016 Pennsylvania Primary to determine the Democratic nominee for President were held

today, for whom would you vote? a) Hillary Clinton b) Bernie Sanders c) Undecided

Presidential

Frequency Percent

Clinton 491 52.1

Sanders 382 40.5

Undecided 70 7.4

Total 942 100.0

4) [AMONG SANDERS SUPPORTERS] If Hillary Clinton became the Democratic nominee for president, and Donald Trump became the Republican nominee for president, for whom would you vote in the 2016 Presidential election? a) Hillary Clinton b) Donald Trump c) Libertarian/Independent candidate d) I would not vote e) Undecided

Sanders Supporters

Frequency Percent

Clinton 176 46.2

Trump 107 27.9

Lib / Independent 44 11.5

Wld Not Vote 30 7.9

Undecided 24 6.4

Total 382 100.0


4/25/16 5) If the Pennsylvania primary to determine the Democratic nominee for the US Senate were held today,

for whom would you vote? a) John Fetterman b) Katie McGinty c) Joe Sestak d) Undecided

Senate

Frequency Percent

Fetterman 134 14.3

McGinty 363 38.5

Sestak 324 34.4

Undecided 121 12.8

Total 942 100.0

6) What is your age? a) 18-29 b) 30-44 c) 45-64 d) 65+

Age

Frequency Percent

18-29 94 10.0

30-44 141 15.0

45-64 433 46.0

65+ 274 29.0

Total 942 100.0

7) What is your race/ethnicity? a) White b) African-American c) Hispanic or Latino d) Other

Race

Frequency Percent

White 782 83.0

African - American 123 13.0

Hispanic / Latino 19 2.0

Other 19 2.0

Total 942 100.0


4/25/16 8) What is your gender?

a) Male b) Female

Gender

Frequency Percent

Male 415 44.0

Female 528 56.0

Total 942 100.0

9) How would you describe your political ideology? a) Very conservative b) Somewhat conservative c) Moderate d) Somewhat liberal e) Very liberal f) Unsure

Ideology

Frequency Percent

V Cons 57 6.0

Swt Cons 97 10.3

Moderate 264 28.0

Swt Liberal 263 27.9

V Liberal 203 21.6

Unsure 58 6.2

Total 942 100.0


4/25/16 10) Region

a) Metro Philadelphia and Southeastern Pennsylvania b) Eastern Pennsylvania, such as Hallstead, Scranton, Reading, and Allentown c) North Central Pennsylvania, such as Warren, Clarion, Williamsport, and Orwell d) South Central Pennsylvania, such as Punxsutawney, Somerset, Harrisburg, Lancaster, and

Berwick e) Northwest Pennsylvania, such as Erie, Knox, and Neshannock Falls f) Southwest Pennsylvania, such as Pittsburgh, Ellwood City, and Uniontown

Region

Frequency Percent

Philadelphia Metro 329 35.0

Eastern PA 141 15.0

N Central PA 38 4.0

S Central PA 179 19.0

NW PA 47 5.0

Pittsburgh Metro 207 22.0

Total 942 100.0

11) Collection Mode a) Landline b) Mobile

Collection Mode

Frequency Percent

Landline 779 82.6

Mobile 164 17.4

Total 942 100.0


4/25/16

Likely

Definitely Considering Absentee

% % %

Likely Definitely 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Considering 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Absentee 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Presidential Clinton 51.7% 60.1% 64.6%

Sanders 41.1% 22.6% 30.6%

Undecided 7.1% 17.3% 4.8% Sanders Supporters Clinton 46.6% 13.1% 61.5%

Trump 27.6% 52.3% 17.6%

Lib / Independent 11.6% 0.0% 20.9%

Wld Not Vote 7.8% 18.6% 0.0%

Undecided 6.3% 15.9% 0.0% Senate Fetterman 14.5% 7.3% 13.7%

McGinty 38.9% 36.8% 11.8%

Sestak 35.2% 16.3% 14.4%

Undecided 11.4% 39.6% 60.1% Age 18-29 9.7% 13.9% 25.2%

30-44 14.9% 24.8% 0.0%

45-64 46.4% 26.7% 55.3%

65+ 29.0% 34.6% 19.5% Race White 83.4% 86.7% 44.7%

African - American 12.5% 13.3% 50.8%

Hispanic / Latino 2.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Other 2.1% 0.0% 4.5% Gender Male 44.6% 13.7% 60.2%

Female 55.4% 86.3% 39.8% Ideology V Cons 5.9% 12.9% 0.0%

Swt Cons 10.5% 9.4% 0.0%

Moderate 27.6% 38.0% 38.5%

Swt Liberal 28.5% 19.2% 9.3%

V Liberal 22.1% 4.5% 18.8%

Unsure 5.5% 16.0% 33.4% Region Philadelphia Metro 34.4% 37.0% 70.9%

Eastern PA 14.9% 22.7% 6.4%

N Central PA 4.1% 3.1% 0.0%

S Central PA 19.6% 8.5% 0.0%

NW PA 4.8% 9.7% 10.5%

Pittsburgh Metro 22.2% 19.0% 12.2% Collection Mode Landline 82.6% 87.1% 74.8%

Mobile 17.4% 12.9% 25.2%


4/25/16

Presidential

Clinton Sanders Undecided

% % %

Likely Definitely 95.2% 97.5% 92.7%

Considering 3.2% 1.5% 6.4%

Absentee 1.7% 1.0% .9% Presidential Clinton 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Sanders 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Undecided 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Sanders Supporters Clinton 0.0% 46.2% 0.0%

Trump 0.0% 27.9% 0.0%

Lib / Independent 0.0% 11.5% 0.0%

Wld Not Vote 0.0% 7.9% 0.0%

Undecided 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% Senate Fetterman 6.6% 22.7% 22.0%

McGinty 49.2% 26.4% 29.7%

Sestak 36.5% 33.8% 22.6%

Undecided 7.7% 17.1% 25.7% Age 18-29 5.3% 17.5% 2.3%

30-44 9.6% 22.7% 10.2%

45-64 48.7% 42.8% 44.6%

65+ 36.4% 17.0% 42.9% Race White 81.0% 86.7% 76.8%

African - American 16.5% 7.6% 17.9%

Hispanic / Latino 1.1% 3.4% 0.0%

Other 1.4% 2.2% 5.3% Gender Male 35.6% 53.2% 53.4%

Female 64.4% 46.8% 46.6% Ideology V Cons 5.6% 4.3% 18.6%

Swt Cons 11.4% 8.9% 10.1%

Moderate 30.4% 26.2% 21.1%

Swt Liberal 28.3% 28.6% 21.7%

V Liberal 18.1% 28.2% 9.6%

Unsure 6.3% 3.8% 18.9% Region Philadelphia Metro 40.1% 28.8% 32.5%

Eastern PA 11.9% 20.0% 8.9%

N Central PA 3.9% 3.9% 5.7%

S Central PA 18.6% 19.2% 20.6%

NW PA 4.0% 6.7% 3.6%

Pittsburgh Metro 21.5% 21.4% 28.7% Collection Mode Landline 90.7% 69.7% 96.7%

Mobile 9.3% 30.3% 3.3%


4/25/16

Sanders Supporters

Clinton Trump Lib /

Independent Wld Not Vote Undecided

% % % % %

Likely Definitely 98.2% 96.5% 98.2% 96.4% 96.2%

Considering .4% 2.9% 0.0% 3.6% 3.8%

Absentee 1.3% .6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% Presidential Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Sanders 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Undecided 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Sanders Supporters

Clinton 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Trump 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Lib / Independent 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Wld Not Vote 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Undecided 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Senate Fetterman 19.6% 21.4% 38.0% 16.4% 30.7%

McGinty 33.1% 26.2% 12.5% 11.4% 21.8%

Sestak 35.1% 35.8% 16.6% 51.9% 24.6%

Undecided 12.2% 16.6% 33.0% 20.3% 22.9% Age 18-29 11.3% 3.3% 48.7% 40.8% 38.6%

30-44 24.5% 14.8% 21.2% 27.6% 41.5%

45-64 44.6% 60.3% 22.4% 25.8% 12.0%

65+ 19.6% 21.7% 7.7% 5.7% 7.9% Race White 89.1% 89.7% 75.6% 70.3% 96.3%

African - American 7.6% 5.9% 6.2% 22.6% 0.0% Hispanic / Latino 1.9% 2.8% 11.5% 6.0% 0.0%

Other 1.5% 1.6% 6.7% 1.1% 3.7% Gender Male 47.1% 56.3% 60.7% 81.6% 35.3%

Female 52.9% 43.7% 39.3% 18.4% 64.7% Ideology V Cons 2.7% 8.8% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Swt Cons 4.6% 20.8% 2.3% 4.9% 5.4%

Moderate 18.3% 44.7% 26.3% 16.8% 13.8%

Swt Liberal 33.7% 17.1% 22.1% 35.5% 44.7%

V Liberal 37.6% 3.0% 38.4% 41.4% 36.2%

Unsure 3.1% 5.5% 5.7% 1.5% 0.0% Region Philadelphia

Metro 34.1% 20.7% 18.4% 40.0% 30.5%

Eastern PA 12.4% 28.1% 26.7% 12.5% 36.0%

N Central PA 4.6% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9%

S Central PA 17.5% 16.0% 28.7% 37.3% 6.4%

NW PA 7.7% 5.9% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% Pittsburgh Metro 23.7% 24.5% 13.4% 10.2% 20.2%

Collection Mode

Landline 77.5% 90.8% 32.4% 31.6% 35.1%

Mobile 22.5% 9.2% 67.6% 68.4% 64.9%


4/25/16

Senate

Fetterman McGinty Sestak Undecided

% % % %

Likely Definitely 97.3% 97.0% 98.1% 85.3%

Considering 1.4% 2.6% 1.3% 8.4%

Absentee 1.3% .4% .6% 6.3% Presidential Clinton 24.2% 66.6% 55.3% 31.1%

Sanders 64.4% 27.7% 39.8% 54.1%

Undecided 11.4% 5.7% 4.9% 14.8% Sanders Supporters

Clinton 40.0% 58.1% 48.0% 32.8%

Trump 26.3% 27.8% 29.6% 27.0%

Lib / Independent 19.3% 5.4% 5.7% 22.2%

Wld Not Vote 5.7% 3.4% 12.1% 9.4%

Undecided 8.7% 5.3% 4.7% 8.6% Senate Fetterman 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

McGinty 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Sestak 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Undecided 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Age 18-29 18.9% 7.4% 5.0% 21.4%

30-44 28.1% 10.6% 11.4% 23.1%

45-64 34.2% 48.3% 51.6% 37.3%

65+ 18.8% 33.7% 32.1% 18.2% Race White 85.7% 85.2% 85.5% 66.7%

African - American 9.5% 12.3% 13.0% 19.1%

Hispanic / Latino .8% 1.4% .2% 9.9%

Other 3.9% 1.2% 1.4% 4.3% Gender Male 55.7% 35.0% 49.3% 43.8%

Female 44.3% 65.0% 50.7% 56.2% Ideology V Cons 15.1% 5.1% 3.7% 5.2%

Swt Cons 9.8% 10.3% 10.9% 9.3%

Moderate 17.2% 30.3% 30.7% 26.0%

Swt Liberal 22.2% 30.8% 29.3% 22.2%

V Liberal 33.7% 16.8% 21.5% 22.5%

Unsure 2.0% 6.8% 4.0% 14.9% Region Philadelphia Metro 16.4% 33.8% 39.4% 47.2%

Eastern PA 10.8% 15.3% 15.2% 17.9%

N Central PA 2.9% 4.4% 5.1% 1.5%

S Central PA 21.7% 23.8% 15.4% 11.7%

NW PA 5.8% 4.0% 5.7% 5.6%

Pittsburgh Metro 42.5% 18.8% 19.3% 16.1% Collection Mode Landline 67.9% 88.5% 89.8% 62.0%

Mobile 32.1% 11.5% 10.2% 38.0%


4/25/16

Age

18-29 30-44 45-64 65+

% % % %


Considering 3.8% 4.5% 1.6% 3.3%

Absentee 3.4% 0.0% 1.6% .9% Presidential Clinton 27.6% 33.4% 55.1% 65.4%

Sanders 70.7% 61.5% 37.7% 23.7%


Clinton 30.0% 49.8% 48.1% 53.4%

Trump 5.2% 18.1% 39.3% 35.7%

Lib / Independent 32.2% 10.7% 6.0% 5.2%

Wld Not Vote 18.4% 9.6% 4.8% 2.7%


McGinty 28.6% 27.2% 40.4% 44.7%

Sestak 17.0% 26.2% 38.6% 38.0%

Undecided 27.4% 19.8% 10.4% 8.0% Age 18-29 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

30-44 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

45-64 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

65+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Race White 72.9% 80.1% 84.6% 85.4%


Hispanic / Latino 9.0% 5.8% .2% .4%



Swt Cons 4.0% 7.2% 12.3% 10.9%

Moderate 13.0% 21.0% 32.1% 30.3%

Swt Liberal 30.3% 34.8% 27.5% 24.3%

V Liberal 39.0% 27.9% 18.0% 17.9%


Eastern PA 16.8% 10.8% 17.3% 12.8%

N Central PA 0.0% 3.4% 4.8% 4.5%

S Central PA 16.8% 17.6% 20.0% 18.9%

NW PA 6.2% 6.6% 3.7% 6.0%


Mobile 83.0% 57.4% 1.1% 0.0%


4/25/16

Race

White African - American Hispanic / Latino Other

% % % %


Considering 2.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0%

Absentee .7% 5.2% 0.0% 3.0% Presidential Clinton 50.9% 66.0% 29.7% 36.0%

Sanders 42.3% 23.8% 70.3% 44.6%


Clinton 47.5% 45.9% 24.9% 31.0%

Trump 28.9% 21.4% 22.6% 19.9%

Lib / Independent 10.1% 9.3% 38.7% 34.3%

Wld Not Vote 6.4% 23.3% 13.7% 4.0%


McGinty 39.5% 36.4% 26.5% 22.5%

Sestak 35.4% 34.3% 3.1% 23.3%

Undecided 10.3% 18.8% 64.4% 27.0% Age 18-29 8.8% 11.3% 45.4% 16.6%

30-44 14.5% 12.3% 43.7% 24.9%

45-64 46.9% 47.6% 5.0% 39.0%

65+ 29.9% 28.7% 5.9% 19.5% Race White 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


Hispanic / Latino 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%



Swt Cons 9.6% 13.0% 20.2% 10.4%

Moderate 29.4% 23.6% 6.6% 18.0%

Swt Liberal 27.9% 27.7% 28.8% 29.9%

V Liberal 23.2% 8.7% 33.4% 26.1%


Eastern PA 15.9% 6.8% 28.0% 17.9%

N Central PA 4.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%

S Central PA 21.2% 7.5% 7.6% 16.6%

NW PA 5.1% 5.6% 0.0% 2.4%


Mobile 15.6% 19.1% 74.4% 23.4%


4/25/16

Gender

Male Female

% %

Likely Definitely 97.3% 94.8%

Considering .9% 4.2%

Absentee 1.8% 1.0% Presidential Clinton 42.1% 60.0%

Sanders 48.9% 33.9%

Undecided 9.0% 6.2% Sanders Supporters Clinton 40.9% 52.3%

Trump 29.5% 26.1%

Lib / Independent 13.1% 9.7%

Wld Not Vote 12.1% 3.1%

Undecided 4.3% 8.9% Senate Fetterman 18.0% 11.3%

McGinty 30.6% 44.8%

Sestak 38.6% 31.1%

Undecided 12.8% 12.9% Age 18-29 11.0% 9.2%

30-44 17.1% 13.3%

45-64 45.3% 46.5%

65+ 26.7% 30.9% Race White 84.6% 81.8%

African - American 11.7% 14.1%

Hispanic / Latino 1.3% 2.5%

Other 2.5% 1.7% Gender Male 100.0% 0.0%

Female 0.0% 100.0% Ideology V Cons 6.4% 5.8%

Swt Cons 10.2% 10.4%

Moderate 29.7% 26.6%

Swt Liberal 25.7% 29.7%

V Liberal 23.3% 20.2%

Unsure 4.6% 7.4% Region Philadelphia Metro 31.2% 37.9%

Eastern PA 16.2% 14.0%

N Central PA 3.4% 4.5%

S Central PA 21.0% 17.5%

NW PA 5.5% 4.6%

Pittsburgh Metro 22.6% 21.5% Collection Mode Landline 81.4% 83.6%

Mobile 18.6% 16.4%


4/25/16

Ideology

V Cons Swt Cons Moderate Swt Liberal V Liberal Unsure

% % % % % %

Likely Definitely 94.1% 97.5% 94.4% 97.7% 98.3% 85.7%

Considering 5.9% 2.5% 3.7% 1.9% .6% 7.1%

Absentee 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% .4% 1.2% 7.2% Presidential Clinton 48.2% 57.5% 56.6% 52.8% 43.7% 52.8%

Sanders 29.0% 35.2% 37.9% 41.4% 53.0% 24.6%

Undecided 22.8% 7.3% 5.6% 5.7% 3.3% 22.6% Sanders Supporters

Clinton 29.3% 23.9% 32.3% 54.5% 61.5% 38.2%

Trump 57.0% 64.9% 47.7% 16.7% 3.0% 41.1% Lib / Independent 13.7% 3.0% 11.6% 8.9% 15.7% 17.6%

Wld Not Vote 0.0% 4.3% 5.1% 9.8% 11.6% 3.1%

Undecided 0.0% 3.8% 3.4% 10.0% 8.2% 0.0% Senate Fetterman 35.6% 13.5% 8.8% 11.3% 22.3% 4.7%

McGinty 32.6% 38.5% 41.6% 42.4% 30.1% 42.3%

Sestak 20.9% 36.5% 37.7% 36.1% 34.2% 22.1%

Undecided 11.0% 11.5% 11.9% 10.2% 13.4% 31.0% Age 18-29 9.9% 3.9% 4.6% 10.9% 18.1% 12.4%

30-44 16.6% 10.6% 11.2% 18.6% 19.4% 5.7%

45-64 34.7% 54.8% 52.8% 45.2% 38.4% 41.6%

65+ 38.8% 30.7% 31.4% 25.3% 24.1% 40.4% Race White 67.4% 77.6% 87.3% 82.9% 89.2% 66.6%

African - American 26.4% 16.4% 11.0% 12.9% 5.3% 30.9% Hispanic / Latino 3.6% 3.9% .5% 2.0% 3.1% 0.0%

Other 2.7% 2.1% 1.3% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% Gender Male 46.6% 43.6% 46.8% 40.5% 47.6% 33.0%

Female 53.4% 56.4% 53.2% 59.5% 52.4% 67.0% Ideology V Cons 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Swt Cons 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Moderate 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Swt Liberal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

V Liberal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Unsure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Region Philadelphia

Metro 40.1% 22.5% 31.5% 40.2% 36.3% 37.9%

Eastern PA 6.1% 23.0% 16.0% 11.2% 16.6% 17.2%

N Central PA .7% 9.7% 4.4% 2.1% 3.7% 6.0%

S Central PA 17.4% 17.0% 18.8% 23.9% 16.8% 10.7%

NW PA 3.7% 4.4% 7.5% 4.1% 4.9% 1.0% Pittsburgh Metro 32.0% 23.5% 21.8% 18.6% 21.6% 27.3%

Collection Mode

Landline 95.7% 91.8% 90.6% 78.8% 67.1% 89.4%

Mobile 4.3% 8.2% 9.4% 21.2% 32.9% 10.6%


4/25/16

Region

Philadelphia Metro Eastern PA N Central PA S Central PA NW PA

Pittsburgh Metro

% % % % % %

Likely Definitely 94.4% 95.3% 97.9% 98.8% 91.9% 96.9%

Considering 2.9% 4.1% 2.1% 1.2% 5.3% 2.4%

Absentee 2.7% .6% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% .7% Presidential Clinton 59.8% 41.6% 50.1% 51.1% 41.1% 50.9%

Sanders 33.3% 54.0% 39.5% 40.9% 53.7% 39.5%

Undecided 6.9% 4.4% 10.4% 8.0% 5.2% 9.7% Sanders Supporters

Clinton 54.8% 28.8% 53.9% 42.1% 53.4% 51.2%

Trump 20.1% 39.3% 34.8% 23.3% 24.5% 31.8% Lib / Independent 7.4% 15.4% 0.0% 17.2% 22.1% 7.2%

Wld Not Vote 11.0% 4.9% 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% 3.8%

Undecided 6.8% 11.6% 11.4% 2.1% 0.0% 6.0% Senate Fetterman 6.7% 10.3% 10.3% 16.2% 16.3% 27.5%

McGinty 37.2% 39.5% 41.7% 48.1% 30.3% 32.9%

Sestak 38.8% 34.9% 43.3% 27.8% 39.1% 30.1%

Undecided 17.3% 15.3% 4.7% 7.9% 14.3% 9.4% Age 18-29 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 8.9% 12.3% 9.5%

30-44 16.9% 10.8% 12.5% 13.9% 19.6% 15.2%

45-64 42.5% 53.3% 55.0% 48.4% 33.6% 45.8%

65+ 29.4% 24.7% 32.5% 28.9% 34.5% 29.6% Race White 69.0% 88.0% 90.6% 92.3% 84.7% 91.9%

African - American 24.3% 5.9% 9.4% 5.1% 14.4% 7.1% Hispanic / Latino 3.4% 3.7% 0.0% .8% 0.0% .4%

Other 3.3% 2.4% 0.0% 1.8% 1.0% .6% Gender Male 39.3% 47.7% 36.8% 48.6% 48.4% 45.3%

Female 60.7% 52.3% 63.2% 51.4% 51.6% 54.7% Ideology V Cons 6.9% 2.5% 1.0% 5.5% 4.4% 8.8%

Swt Cons 6.6% 15.8% 24.7% 9.2% 9.0% 11.0%

Moderate 25.2% 29.9% 30.7% 27.6% 41.8% 27.8%

Swt Liberal 32.1% 20.9% 14.5% 35.1% 22.6% 23.6%

V Liberal 22.4% 23.9% 19.9% 19.1% 21.0% 21.2%

Unsure 6.7% 7.1% 9.2% 3.5% 1.2% 7.7% Region Philadelphia

Metro 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Eastern PA 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

N Central PA 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

S Central PA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NW PA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Pittsburgh Metro 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Collection Mode

Landline 80.7% 81.2% 100.0% 84.5% 82.6% 81.9%

Mobile 19.3% 18.8% 0.0% 15.5% 17.4% 18.1%


4/25/16

Collection Mode

Landline Mobile

% %

Likely Definitely 95.9% 96.0%

Considering 2.9% 2.0%

Absentee 1.2% 1.9% Presidential Clinton 57.2% 28.0%

Sanders 34.2% 70.6%

Undecided 8.7% 1.4% Sanders Supporters Clinton 51.5% 34.3%

Trump 36.4% 8.5%

Lib / Independent 5.4% 25.7%

Wld Not Vote 3.6% 17.8%

Undecided 3.2% 13.7% Senate Fetterman 11.7% 26.3%

McGinty 41.3% 25.5%

Sestak 37.4% 20.2%

Undecided 9.6% 28.0% Age 18-29 2.1% 47.7%

30-44 7.7% 49.4%

45-64 55.1% 2.9%

65+ 35.1% 0.0% Race White 84.8% 74.5%

African - American 12.7% 14.3%

Hispanic / Latino .6% 8.5%

Other 1.9% 2.7% Gender Male 43.3% 47.2%

Female 56.7% 52.8% Ideology V Cons 7.0% 1.5%

Swt Cons 11.4% 4.8%

Moderate 30.7% 15.1%

Swt Liberal 26.7% 34.1%

V Liberal 17.5% 40.7%

Unsure 6.7% 3.8% Region Philadelphia Metro 34.1% 38.8%

Eastern PA 14.7% 16.2%

N Central PA 4.9% 0.0%

S Central PA 19.5% 17.0%

NW PA 5.0% 5.1%

Pittsburgh Metro 21.8% 22.9% Collection Mode Landline 100.0% 0.0%

Mobile 0.0% 100.0%

pennsylvania democratic presidential primary poll...

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