surveymonkey 2012 presidential election poll: battleground state analysis

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An in depth look at swing state trends during the 2012 presidential election.

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Page 1: SurveyMonkey 2012 Presidential Election Poll: Battleground State Analysis

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Philip Garland, Ph.D., VP Methodology Dave Goldberg, CEO Liana Epstein, Ph.D., Senior Methodologist Annabell Suh

Page 2: SurveyMonkey 2012 Presidential Election Poll: Battleground State Analysis

THE CHALLENGE

You hear a lot in these presidential elections about “battleground” states, also known as “swing” states. Here at SurveyMonkey we wanted to know just how much these supposed swing states had swung over the past month. Are voter preferences in these states really as fickle as people think they are? Or do they stay constant?

Here’s what we found out!

Page 3: SurveyMonkey 2012 Presidential Election Poll: Battleground State Analysis

Some battleground states didn’t look like fair fights at all, with one candidate

clearly dominating the state!

Page 4: SurveyMonkey 2012 Presidential Election Poll: Battleground State Analysis

FOCUS ON: COLORADO

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Page 5: SurveyMonkey 2012 Presidential Election Poll: Battleground State Analysis

FOCUS ON: FLORIDA

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Page 6: SurveyMonkey 2012 Presidential Election Poll: Battleground State Analysis

FOCUS ON: PENNSYLVANIA

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Page 7: SurveyMonkey 2012 Presidential Election Poll: Battleground State Analysis

Others were true tossup states that swung back and forth!

Page 8: SurveyMonkey 2012 Presidential Election Poll: Battleground State Analysis

FOCUS ON: MICHIGAN

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Page 9: SurveyMonkey 2012 Presidential Election Poll: Battleground State Analysis

FOCUS ON: IOWA

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Page 10: SurveyMonkey 2012 Presidential Election Poll: Battleground State Analysis

FOCUS ON: VIRGINIA

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Page 11: SurveyMonkey 2012 Presidential Election Poll: Battleground State Analysis

FOCUS ON: WISCONSIN

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Page 12: SurveyMonkey 2012 Presidential Election Poll: Battleground State Analysis

In a few states, the trends varied based on how we analyzed our data,

and figuring out what was going on got a whole lot more complicated!

Page 13: SurveyMonkey 2012 Presidential Election Poll: Battleground State Analysis

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Page 14: SurveyMonkey 2012 Presidential Election Poll: Battleground State Analysis

FOCUS ON: OHIO

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Page 15: SurveyMonkey 2012 Presidential Election Poll: Battleground State Analysis

FOCUS ON: NORTH CAROLINA

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7.7.

6.6.4.

4.

Page 16: SurveyMonkey 2012 Presidential Election Poll: Battleground State Analysis

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