pakistan energy growth
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/12/2019 Pakistan Energy Growth
1/14
Chapter 14
Energy
Energy is the lifeline of an economy and is a vitalinput to sustain industrial, commercial and domesticactivities. Energy disruptions and energy shortagesnot only result in loss of economic growth andemployment but adversely affect social cohesion inthe society. Energy crisis in Pakistan had been
brewing since 2007 and deepened in 2012 whichhugely negatively affected the economic growth andemployment. Absence of effective planning, an
economically and financially viable strategy andincapacitated regulator resulted in supply-demandgap. The situation has been further compounded dueto high transmission and distribution losses,development of black-market for power anddeclining revenue collection. This led to persistentaccumulation of circular debt. Consequently, thefederal budget had to absorb huge quantum ofsubsidies to bridge the financial gaps in power sectorthreatening the fiscal stability on the one hand, andincreasing the public debt.
Nevertheless, realizing the gravity of situation andimportance of energy for economic activities with
particular emphasis on reviving the almost stalledindustrial sector, job creation and incomegeneration, the present government has put this issueon top of its economic reform agenda by pursuing acomprehensive plan to address these problems. Inthis context, government retired the circular debt (Rs480 billion) immediately after taking oath which
added 1752 MW of electricity into the system. Inorder to resolve the issue on permanent basis,government developed National Power Policy(2013) which was announced to provide anaffordable energy in the country through efficientgeneration, transmission and distribution system. Itis expected that the policy will set Pakistan on atrajectory of rapid economic growth and socialdevelopment. More specifically, in order to reduce
the cost of power generation to an affordableamount, a 84 MW New Bong Hydropower Project
being the first hydro IPP in Pakistan/AJ & K hasbeen commissioned while 10.5 MW Gas BasedDavis Energen Project at Jhang started producingelectricity and is contributing to FESCO's Network.Likewise 2 x 660 MW Imported Coal based PowerProject at Port Qasim, Karachi has been inaugurated.
In short, the government has realized the challengesfaced by Pakistan energy system. Thus efforts areunderway to reform existing energy system to
actualize the energy sectors aspirations. It isprojected that by the end of the decade Pakistan willbe transformed from an energy deficient to aregional exporter of power while the efficiencyimprovements in transmission and distribution willdecrease the high cost of power to the end consumerwhich will bring prosperity and social developmentin the country.
Box-1: Salient Features of National Power Policy 2013
The Ministry of Water and Power has developed Power Policy to support the current and future energy needs of thecountry and to set Pakistan on a trajectory of rapid economic growth and social development. It will also address thekey challenges of the power sector in order to provide much needed relief to the citizens of Pakistan. To achieve thelong-term vision of the power sector and overcome its challenges, following nine goals have been set:
i. Build a power generation capacity that can meet Pakistans energy needs in a sustainable manner.ii. Create a culture of energy conservation and responsibility
iii. Ensure the generation of inexpensive and affordable electricity for domestic, commercial, and industrial use byusing indigenous resources such as coal (Thar coal) and hydel.
iv. Minimize pilferage and adulteration in fuel supplyv. Promote world class efficiency in power generation
vi. Create a cutting edge transmission networkvii. Minimize inefficiencies in the distribution system
viii. Minimize financial losses across the systemix. Align the ministries involved in the energy sector and improve the governance of all related federal and provincial
departments as well as regulators
-
8/12/2019 Pakistan Energy Growth
2/14
218
The main tari. To fullii. Toiii. Toiv. To
14.1 PakistFigure beloverall en(Ministry oPetroleumcomponentfrom policimpacts theand laws foorganizatioElectricity(NEPRA)(OGRA).
Fig-14.1:
The first stgovernmencompanies
primary enfrom impor
The secoelectricityetc. Energ
private cofrom pub
akistan Eco
gets of this Peliminate loecrease costecrease tranmprove colle
ans Energw give usrgy sectorf Water anand Naturain the wholto generatienergy mar
rmed by thes. There aand Po
nd Oil an
akistans E
ge is prima being prihas solid hrgy from d
ting these fr
d stage ieneration, r in Pakistapanies butic limited
nomic Surv
licy for yeard shedding;
of generationmission lossction of bills
Systema visual prin Pakistan Power andl Resourcesystem wit
on and distret through
public sectre two reger Regul Gas Reg
ergy Syste
ry energy se supplier tld. The go
omestic resm rest of th
conversiefining and
is generatmost of t
companie
y 2013-14
2017 are:
from 12c/unis from 25 peto 95 percent.
sentation o. Public s the Minist) is the lah its interveibution chairules, regular institutionulators Nattion Authlatory Auth
pplies whero the genervernment surces as we world.
n processprocessingd by publie energy cs. During
t to 10c/unit;cent to 16 pe
theectory ofrgesttion. It
tionsand
ionalorityority
e theationpplyll as
likef oilandmesthe
convariliquuseener
pubGosect
privHumajand
proyeadistmaIntowchato btheearlthe199
intrthisThisectandnow
powproinvavailack
proguaforecoocritico
Presectand(GEreso
byPo(WiGen
cent
ersion proous plantsefaction etc by energygy systemic sector. Hernment ofor alone thate sector i Power Prr power prthe world
ess was ves to fullyibution ofaged by twearly 90s thrds marketge in the po
ring in morovernment90s. The f
unbundlingand com
duced the Ppolicy was t policy resor, promotioprivatizatioprivate secter producinces havest in the enelability of
of technincial goantees to tign direct indination plcal for thplicated sec
ently, the gor is doneMangla da
NCOs) geurces. The
PPs (Indeper Plants) /d Power
eration),
ess, primar(heat, pow.), oil refin industry itof Pakistawever, it wPakistan torefore it w. As a resuject (HUBoject whichas well. H
y slow anestablish ielectricity
lve Area Elere was aeconomywer sectorprivate invintroducedrst visible sof WAPDleted in 1
ower Policyo restructurlted in de-n of IPPs, r of selecte
or has alsoion. Undeen given crgy sector.atural reso
cal knowlernment the privateestment ann are reasoe provinceor.
neration ofhrough hyds etc. whil
erate electrivate secto
ndent PowCPPs (CaptGeneration)ub Powe
energy iser, gas, peries and s
self. Prior t mainlys becominghandle ands decided
lt in 1985,O) was in
was uniqueowever, its
it took th 1997. Tilwas coorctricity Boa
shift in glohich led tof Pakistan.estment. Foumber of ptep in this d, the proce
998. The
of 1994. Ththe entire pegulation o
estructuringcorporate
ecome a mar 18thonsiderableowever, du
urces in thdge, inabio providesector for
the absencns which as to hand
electricity bel sourcese generatioricity thror electricity
er Plants),ve Power P, HPG (Hr Compan
supplied totrochemical,me of it iso 1985, theonsisted odifficult forfinance theo bring the 1292 M
itiated as a in Pakistan
installation
project 12l 1994, theinated andrds (AEBs).al thinkinga structuralhe idea waslowing thislicies in the
irection wass started ingovernment
e impetus oower sector.f the powerof WAPDentities. Tilljor player in
mendment,utonomy to
e to unequal provincesity of the
sovereignringing the
e of nationale becomingle such a
y the publicike Terbela companiesgh thermalis generated
PPs (Smallants), WPGdel Power
y Limited
-
8/12/2019 Pakistan Energy Growth
3/14
(HUBCO)(KESC)company.generated bElectric Poinstitution
of all geninfluence w
In the thirdto energy
National(NTDC) aninto powerinclude LEFESCO,However atransmissio
percent. Tpossibleminimum l
percent till
The interacservices ocshould beenergy progovernmen
part of thetariff as m
pay the priFrom FY03has been giwhich is m
In 1995 thmillion TOthat timeelectricity 1
the energymillion TOgrowth rat
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
%S
hare
Figu
Sou
and Karachhile KESSome porty NPPs (Nuwer Compa
hich mana
ration comithin the sys
stage, the gervices whiTransmissiod KESC.distributionCO, QESCEPCO, HEmajor port and distr
he presenteasures tvel and the
2017.
tion of suppcur throughoted that tucts does nheavily ininal price bjority of cce if deterto FY13 a ten as subsich higher t
total energs. The maiere Oil 41.5.5 percent
supply of ts with an a
e of 4 pe
1995
re14.3:Prim
C
rce: Energy Yea
i Electricis verti
ion of eleclear Powery (PEPCO
ges the gen
panies andtem
nerated enech are main Distribhe NTDC icompanies
O, PESCO,SCO, KESon of ener
bution whi
governmen reduce ttarget is to r
iers and coenergy mare determinaot happen fluence thepaying su
nsumers wiined by frotal amounty to poweran the cost
y supply ofsources of
6 percent,and coal 5.8
e economynual avera
cent. Ther
2003
aryEnergySu
oal
s Book, various
upply Comcally integctricity isPlants). Pak) is an umeration acti
thus has s
gy is transly done thrtion Coms further di(DISCOs)ESCO, GEO and SEy is lost d
ch is almo
t is takinhese losseeduce these
sumer of eket. Howevtion of priceely becausarket and
sidy on thell not be abe market fof Rs 1.7 trsector an aof Diamer
Pakistan wenergy supas 36.8 perpercent. In
increased te (1995 to
was not
2005
pplyBysour
lectricity
issues, HDIP
panyratedalso
istanrellaities
rong
ittedoughpanyidedhichCO,CO.ringt 25
allto
o 16
ergyer, ites ofe theearsfinalle torces.llionountasha
Dasho
Hocauprestariener
14.
Intho
priton2 p
pro
FigPak
s 28ly atcent,2013
o 64013)only
incrchaseewhi
201whirela
RsBillion
2010
e
Oil
. The trendn in Figure
ever, withe huge sent governf and movigy supplies
: Energy S
013, indigesand tonnesary energyes of oil eqrcent of en
ess.
re14.3 shostan by sour
ease in enge in the p. The share the share
on accounh led the sive cheaper
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
FY03
FY04
Figure 14.
2011
ears
Gas
Source: Budget Wing
of subsidie14.2 below:
rawing thecio-econoent is tryig toward
especially f
pply
ous energyof oil equi
supplies reivalent (Trgy was lo
s the trences.
rgy supplyatterns of e of oil deof gas incr
of rise inpplier to sh source. Ho
FY05
FY06
FY07
: Subsidies
2012
EnergyS
, Ministry of Finance
Energ
s given in t
subsidy aic cost thng to ratioheaper ener electricity
availabilityalent (TOEained 64, 5E) showingt during th
s of energ
but also anergy sourcreased toased to 48.
il prices intft toward gawever this
FY09
FY10
FY11
o Power Sec
2013
upply
219
ese years is
once mayerefore thealizing thegy mix forgeneration.
was 65,639) while total88 thousand that almost conversion
supply o
very clear
es had been2.5 percent
2 percent in
ernationallys which is ahift exerted
FY12
FY13
Years
or
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
MillionTOE
-
8/12/2019 Pakistan Energy Growth
4/14
220
pressure oterms of eefficient so
14.2.1 Oil
Overtimesources ofis highestrisks andeconomy.energy forincreasingThe priceincreased tan increaseits price in
prices dom
May 2014generatingincreased
produced oproduced tprice of elKWh. In oIPP involvThat is thecircular demore thanoil reserves
reserves wmillion baroil and 37recoverableon accountcrude oil rMarch FYcorrespond11 percentgrowth of
barrels inmillion bar
(MMCFD)
akistan Eco
domestic rfficiency, orce of prim
here wasnergy supplhich has e
brought neOil is mosPakistan, tontinuouslyf oil was $
$ 110perbof almost h1995. Thisstically, es
from Rs 9one unitanifold i.
n furnace ohrough diectricity inther words,s a subsidyroot causet. Furtheralf of the
. On June 3
ere 1,102.6els(68 perc
1.0 millionreserves. Fof importmained 44.14 comparng period lwhile loca
12 percentJuly-Marchels in corre
(-0.
3,400
3,500
3,600
3,700
3,800
3,900
4,000
J
Figure14.
Source: Mi
nomic Surv
sources ofil is still cry energy s
changing py, still reliaposed theative repertly an impe price ofespecially
10 per barrarrels in Mundred timealso led toalating to R
er liter in 1at IPP th., Rs.18/-l and Rs.24el, while takistan isevery unitof Rs 9 toof the groore, Pakistariginal dom0, 2013, ori
million bant) cumulatbarrel (32rther a hug
of crude oi million ba
d to 40.9st year pos
l crude extas it stoodFY 14 co
sponding pe
9%) (0.4%)
l Aug
4:GasProdu
istr of Petrole
y 2013-14
gas, howevonsidered applies.
attern ince on oil ancountry tocussions oorted sourcwhich hasn last few yl in 1995y 2014 shos as comparn increase is 107 per lit
995. The cormal plantper KWh/- per unithe averagebout Rs. 9/generated bRs 15 pering proble
n has exhaestic recoveinal recove
rels withve producti
percent) bae amount is. The imporrel duringillion barre
ting a growaction postat 23.0 m
mpared toriod last ye
(5.0%)
(-0.7
Sep Oc
ctionduring
m and Natural R
r, ins an
ajorgasanythe
e ofbeenears.hich
winged ton oiler in
st ofhashenhensale
- pery anWh.
ofsted
rablerable
31.5n ofancepaidrt ofJuly-ls inh ofed allion20.5r. In
moimp
billigro
Rea
higPakThu
probloforeaboof t
bloPunAftexpl
mofinarentwell
beesuphassou
14.
The
nat201cu(44Whoftrillicubicocurr
bel
)(0.1%)
(
Nov
ulyApril
esources
etary valueort of petroon in correth 6.2 perc
izing the ri
use of pestan is tryis on Janisionally aks to eightign compant 103,348
he area alrks, 21 blocab, 8 in Kr executionoration acti
entum ancial benefils. During t
s have beemade. Altly yet duesubstitutedce of energ
.2 Gas
original
ral gas wer. 30.9 trilli
ulative propercent)n comparedatural gason cubic fec feet of n
parison of gent year anw:
-0.8%)
(-4.1%
Dec Jan
s, US $ 4.leum crudeponding pent.
sk and cha
troleum crung to explary 21,arded 50
companies ies. The totaq. Kms whady unders are locatyber Pakhtof agreemeities in the
provincets in termshe current fi spudded aough oil isto continuooil in mansupplies.
omestic r
55.6 trillioon cubic feuction andas balancwith domen June 30,
et which reatural gasas productio last year i
) (-4.2%)
Feb
20121
3 billion wcompared t
riod last ye
lenges invo
de, the Gore domesti
2014 thepetroleumncluding bol area of thch is arounexploration.d in Balucnkhwa andts for thes
country wil
will getof social
scal year, 7nd 18 discefficient pris rise in it ways bein
coverable
n cubic feetet (56 perc24.7 trillio recoverabstic recovera
2012, thesresent thateserve aren during Juls shown in
(-2.3%)
(0.5
Mar April
20131
s spent ono US $ 4.0r posting a
lved due to
ernment oc resources.governmentexploration
th local andse blocks is38 percent
Out of 50istan, 15 in6 in Sindh.blocks, thepick a new
immediateelfares andnumbers overies haveary energy
prices, gasg a cheaper
reserves o
on June 30nt) was the cubic feete reserves.
ble reserves were 56.00.38 trilliondepleted. April forFigure 14.4
)
-
8/12/2019 Pakistan Energy Growth
5/14
Energy 221
The worrisome factor is that our gas reserves aredepleting and if gas consumption grows annuallyeven at moderate rates, the present recoverablereserve will largely be exhausted by 2025. As thislimit approaches the marginal cost of gas supplieswill rise.
To avoid such a situation we have two choices:efficient use of gas and an increase in the gasexploration rate along with diversification of energymix. Realizing this fact, the government is attractingforeign investment to explore new fields. Althoughexploring of natural gas is sub-component of miningand quarrying, yet on a positive note it should benoted that both private and public gross fixed capitalformation in mining and quarrying at basic prices of2005-06 had shown positive growth of 25 percent inFY 14 that earlier had declined to 14 percent in FY13.
Increasing demand of natural gas with its limitedsupply has made room for Liquefied Petroleum Gas(LPG) which is also a primary source of energy.Currently about 1000 tons/day LPG is being
produced domestically contributing less than 1percent to the total energy supply mix. Because ofits characteristics LPG is fast becoming a fuel ofchoice in the areas, where natural gas distributionnetwork is not available. Pakistan PetroleumLimited (PPL) is the pioneer of the natural gasindustry in the country which operates six producingfields in Sui, Kandhkot, Adhi, Mazarani, Chacharand Hala while Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority(OGRA) is empowered to regulate the LPG sectorunder OGRA Ordinance 2002 and LPG (Production& Distribution) Rules 2001 w.e.f 15th March, 2003.OGRA has simplified the procedure for grant ofLPG license and the same is granted on fast track
basis once the requirements are met / compiled.During July-Dec, 2013 two licenses for constructionof LPG storage and filling plants were issued. In
addition, OGRA has also issued 15 licenses forconstruction of LPG auto refueling station. OGRA isplaying a vital role to increase private investment onmidstream and downstream petroleum industry,During July- December, 2013 an investment of Rs.0.264 billion has been made in LPG infrastructurewhereas total investment in the sector till end of thisfiscal year is estimated about Rs. 17.464 billion.
Natural gas and LPG are considered as cheaper thanoil but both are expensive than coal and fortunatelyPakistan has huge coal resources estimated to exceed
185 billion tons which generally ranks from ligniteto sub-bituminous. However, less focus has beengiven to this cheaper primary energy supply.
14.2.3 Coal
The share of coal in energy supply is almost stagnantto 6 percent since 1995. The federal and provisionalgovernments have started giving importance to coalexploration and development activities. The federal
government has been striving hard for optimumdevelopment and utilization of indigenous coalresources and pursuing the policy of promoting coal
based power generation. A summary of the effortsmade in this regard is presented below:-
i. The federal government sponsored discoveryand evaluation of Thar coal deposits,development of infrastructure in this coal-field and studies to determine its mine abilityand for gasification incurring more than Rs2.000 billion.
ii. Lakhra Coal Development Corporation hasbeen set up as a joint venture of PakistanMineral Development Corporation, WAPDAand Government of Sindh to fulfill coalrequirement of 150 MW Khanote PowerPlant.
iii. The Finance Division has sponsored underPSDP a pilot project for Underground CoalGasification at Thar Coal Block- V.
iv. Federal Government is pursuing the policy ofpromoting coal based power generation andconversion of oil and gas-based power plantsto indigenous/imported coal that would lateron, be replaced by Thar coal depending uponits availability.
Government of Sindh has leased out a coal block foran integrated mining project and power generation toincrease the share of coal. The details are as under:-
a) Government of Sindh has entered into a jointventure with M/s Engro Powergen (Pvt)Limited for Coal Mining in Block-II and
established a Company under Companies Act,1984 viz. Sindh Engro Coal MiningCompany for development of Coal Mine andinstallation 600-1000 MW Power Plant.
b) M/s Cougar Energy UK limited has beenallocated Block-III in Thar coalfield forextraction Underground Coal Gasification andestablishing 400 MW Power Plant.
c) M/s Bin Daen Group, UEA has been allocatedBlock-IV in Thar coalfield for developingCoal Mine and installing 1000 MW PowerPlant.
-
8/12/2019 Pakistan Energy Growth
6/14
-
8/12/2019 Pakistan Energy Growth
7/14
-
8/12/2019 Pakistan Energy Growth
8/14
224 Pakistan Economic Survey 2013-14
the unsustainable level of circular debt there was1752 MW increase in capacity utilization.
To diversify the primary energy supply in thegeneration, Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission(PAEC) produce electricity through nuclear plants.
By this time three nuclear power plants areoperational. The first nuclear power plant i.e.Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP) completedits 30 years design life in 2002.
14.2.5 Nuclear Energy
Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) isresponsible for planning, construction and operationof nuclear power plants in the country. PAEC iscurrently operating three nuclear power plantsKarachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP), Chashma
Nuclear Power Plant Unit-1 (C-1) and Unit-2 (C-2).The construction of two more units C-3 and C-4 of340 MW each is in progress. The second and thirdnuclear power plants i.e., (C-1 and C-2) are
performing very well. Performance of all three
operating nuclear power plants is given in thefollowing Table 14.3:
Table 14.2: Electricity generation
S.No Source Capacity addition(MW)
IPPS Fuel Operated Plants1 KAPCO 282
2 HUBCO (RFO) 363
3 HUBCO Narowal(RFO)
204
IPPS Gas Operated Plants
4 Liberty (Gas) 193
5 Saif Power (Gas &HSD)
56
6 Halmore (Gas &HSD)
48
GENCOs
7 Jamshoro (RFO) 388
8 Guddu (Gas) 136
9 Muzaffargarh (RFO) 82
Total 1,752
Source: Ministry of Water and Power
Table 14.3: Performance of the Operating Nuclear Power Plants in Pakistan
Plants Gross Capacity (MW) Grid Connection Data Electricity sent to Grid (million KWh)
July 1, 2014 to
March 31, 2014
Lifetime upto March
31, 2014
KANUPP 100 18-Oct-71 291 13,004
C-1 325 13-Jun-00 1,840 26,781
C-2 330 14-Mar-11 1,866 6,096Source: Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission
The construction of fourth and fifth nuclear plants,Chashma Nuclear Power Plant unit 3 & 4 (C-3 andC-4) at Chashma site, is ahead of the schedule. TheDomes on containment buildings of C-3 and C-4were placed on the 6th March, 2013 and 2ndJanuary, 2014, respectively. Status of underconstruction nuclear power plant is given in thefollowing Table 14.4:
Table 14.4: Status of under construction nuclearpower plant
Plants Gross
Capacity
(MW)
First
Concrete
Pour Date
Target
Commercial
Operation
Date
C-1 340 4-Mar-11 30-Apr-16
C-2 340 18-Dec-11 31-Dec-16
Source: Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission
PAEC is implementing nuclear power program 2030set by Energy Security Plan of the Government of
Pakistan. The ground breaking ceremony of KarachiCoastal Power Project (K-2 and K-3) was held on26th November, 2013. To meet the targets, sites are
being identified for more under power plants.
Technical and engineering infrastructure is in placeto provide technical support to existing underconstruction and future nuclear power plants
One reason of energy crises is expensive input and iftimely efforts are not made for cheaper energy mix,the problem can be more severe in future. Thegovernment is committed to achieve less oildependent power generation mix through
development of indigenous energy resourcesparticularly hydel and coal. Recently, the ExecutiveCommittee of the National Economic Council(ECNEC) approved four development projects in
power sector having a combined generation capacityof 3,511 MW. The approved projects include K-Iand K-II Nuclear Projects situated in Karachi(Province of Sindh; generation capacity 2,200 MW),
Nandipur (Province Punjab; generation capacity 425MW; cost Rs 57,380 million) and Neelum-Jhelumhydroelectric project (AJK; generation capacity 969MW). Government of Pakistan is committed to
arrange timely finances for these projects andmonitor their development regularly in order tocomplete them as per schedule. Also one other
-
8/12/2019 Pakistan Energy Growth
9/14
Energy 225diversification in using energy mix in the generationof electricity is by producing electricity by Co-Generation for which government is seriouslythinking. Co-Generation is a high efficiency energysystem that produces both electricity (andmechanical power) and valuable heat from a single
fuel source. Pakistan being the fifth largestsugarcane producer in the world has the potential togenerate electricity of almost 2,000 MW throughCo-Generation. Bagasse (process waste of sugarindustry) is a fibrous residue of cane stalk obtainedafter crushing. When burned in quantity, bagasse
produces sufficient heat energy to supply all theneeds of a typical sugar mill, with energy to spare.To this end, a secondary use of bagasse is in Co-Generation. Development of Co-Generation plants
based on high pressure boilers is gaining momentumworldwide. Thus Co-Generation by sugar mills by
utilizing bagasse and coal provides one of the mosteconomically viable options for thermal powergeneration, earlier it remained unexploited inPakistan.
14.3.Energy Consumption
Energy consumption is the amount of energy left forfinal use after subtracting energy lost intransformation and distribution from primary energysupplies. It is considered as the oxygen of aneconomy and the lifeline of the economic growth
particularly in the industrialization stage of anemerging economy. The importance of energy
consumption in the economic growth can be realizedfrom the fact that the excessive productivityslowdown around the world in 1970s which was
primarily due to oil crises. Prior to 1970s, economicgrowth and prosperity of a country in the long rundepends on the basic factors of production like labor,
capital and land. Economists mostly link therelationship between these factors of production andeconomic output through the production functions.However, for considerable amount of time,economists did not consider energy as a factor of
production and ignore its importance in theproduction process. Arrows learning by doing andHicks induced innovation did not include resourcesor energy explicitly in their models. However lately,the geological economists have given energy a keyrole in the production process. They placed hugeemphasis on the role of energy and its availability in
the production and growth processes. These modelshave shown that scarcity of energy imposes a stronghindrance in the economic growth of a country.Similarly is the case of Pakistan. In past, Pakistani
policy maker and planners had given less importanceto energy in development plan. During period ofhigher economic growth, failing to implement
proper energy plans for addressing future needs ofthe country resulted in cyclical pattern in theirrelationship. The fluctuation in energy consumptionaffected the large scale manufacturing growth whichin turn affected the real GDP growth as shown infigure below:
During FY 13 energy consumption was 40,185million TOEs compared to 40,026 million TOEs inFY 12 showing a growth of 0.4 percent. The currentfiscal year much improvement has been seen ineconomic activity due to better available energy for
usage on account of relatively less losses intransformation and distribution as compared to lastyear.
Although by source gas has the major share inenergy consumption, however, since 2008 its shareis almost stagnant 43 to 44 percent and due to rise in
prices of oil there is decline in its share in energyconsumption.
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
%
Years
Fig-14.7: Relationship between growth rate of Real GDP, LSM and Energy Consumption
GDP (fc)
LSM
Energy Consumption
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Economic Adviser's Wing, HDIP
-
8/12/2019 Pakistan Energy Growth
10/14
226
14.3.1 Oil (
Transportsector in tHowever, dincrease inshare increof oil in treason is t
Source: Hyd
During Julconsumptiowhile shar0.8 and 0.compared t
During FYwas US $ 1it was 19.
million memillion metMarch FY
Power41.1
Other Go1.6
S
akistan Eco
Petroleum
nd powerhe usage ouring last tthe usageses to 40.0
ransport seat majority
ocarbon Devel
Marchn is increas of transpo6 percentage same duri
13 the im4.9 billion.2 million
ric tons ofric tons of p14, the imp
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
ercenagea
re
Figure14.8
Source: Hydroca
Households0.5
vt.
hare of secto
Oil/P
July-
nomic Surv
roduct)
ectors remaf oil / petro decade tf oil in po
percent intor is almof commer
Figure 14.9:
opment Institu
Y 14, shared by 1.7t and induse point, reng July M
ort bill off to look inetric tons
petroleumetroleum crrt bill of pe
2008
:EnergyCon
rbon Developme
rs in Consu
troleum (%)
arch FY 13
y 2013-14
ined the hioleum prodere is signier sector a013 whilest stagnantial transport
Share of sec
e of Pakistan
of power iercentage ptry decreasepectively,arch FY 13.
petroleumto quantity t
including
roducts ande. Duringtroleum pos
2009
sumptionby
nt Institute of Pa
Industy7.4
Agriculture0.1
T
ption of
hestucts.icants thesage
, thestill
usewhishifoildeclJuly
petrcorr
ors in consu
n oilointsd byhen
rouperms12.3
6.9July-ted a
negofduri
billia neimpas itco
periquacrumai
2010
Years
ource
istan
ransport49.3
Powe42.8
oil and thee usage of otoward Cn agricultuine in activ-March FYoleum prodesponding p
mption of Oi
tive growthetroleum p
ng July-Maon during cgative growort of petrolwas US $pared to Uod last yeatities of bote (5.0 percereason attr
2011
Oil
CoalLPG
Hou
r
Other Govt.1.6
Share of s
O
J
re is negliil in househG from oil.e and induity due to14, the comuct is littleriod last ye
l / Petroleu
of 1.3 percroducts stoch FY 14rrespondinh of 5.6 peeum crude i.3 billion d$ 4.1 billir. Thereh petroleumnt and 4.3 pbuted to the
2012
eholds.4
ectors in Co
il/Petroleum
uly-March FY 1
ible shift tld decline tThe declinestry couldower shortosition ofvariant fr
ar as shown
ent. The vald at US $compared tperiod lastcent. Howencreased byring July-n during cas positiveproducts aercent respeincrease in
2013
Gas
Electricity
Industy6.2
A
sumption o
(%)
4
ward CNGat show the
in usage oe linked to
age. Duringsage of oilom that in
below:
e of import 6.6 billiono US $ 7.0year postinger, value o
6.2 percentarch FY 14rresponding growth ind petroleutively). The
quantity and
griculture0.2
Transport48.7
-
8/12/2019 Pakistan Energy Growth
11/14
decrease in
prices ofwas globalchange inwhich refl
product.
14.3.2 Nat
Pakistan ishouseholdsmajor endof consumThere wasfertilizer i
performancreason of ato frail fun
confronting
Source: Hydr
14.3.3 Elec
The consuand is the
prime reasalso brou
people. Teconomic
Industry22.6
Transport(CNG)
8.2
Sh
value of peetroleum princrease inits consumct that petr
ral Gas
the larger, power, feser of gas. Ition of gassharp decldustry whi
e of fertiliznormal red
tioning of S
the worst
carbon Develo
tricity
ption of eleighest amon is technht signific
ere is cyrowth and
Power27.5
re of sectors
Ju
-5
0
5
10
15
1995-96
GrowthRate(%)
Fig-14.1
Source: H
troleum prooducts glob
price of pettion patteroleum crud
consumertilizer and
last two damong itsine in gasch had ner sector. Inction in gaGPL-base
gas crisisFigure
pment Institut
ctricity hasg all sourcelogical advnt change
lical relatielectricity
in Consum(%)
ly-March FY 13
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
: Relationsh
and elec
IP, PBS and E
duct is declally. Evenoleum crud had beene is an ine
of the gas.industry arcades the pasers is chaconsumptioatively affFY 13, thes supply wafertilizer pl
which caus4.10: Share
of Pakistan
increased ras of energy.ancementin lifestyl
onship betconsumptio
Households23.2
Comm3.
Ce0.
Fertilizer15.2
tion of Gas
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
ip between g
ricty consu
Wing
ningtheree, noseenastic
Thethe
tternged.n incted
maindue
ants,
ed a
sharfertiPakAgrshoferti
19pericohou
prioindoiluseto
prescaucon
f sectors in
idlyOnehich
e of
eenn. It
impbywhitheadvgro
con
ercial
ent1
Industr21.7
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
Year
rowth of GD
ption
p declinelizer plantsrab, Dawotech, remaitages. Durilizer indust
ercent whiod last fiscamitment ofehold, pow
rity basis.stry is decliith gas. Ti
of gas (CNoad manacribed houred declineumption as
onsumption
ies that theigher groh is obvioustandard once technth of GDP
umption of
Power26.1
Transport(CNG)
7.0
Share of s
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
s
P (fc)
in the ovon the SNd Herculesned the mag July-Mary in gas c
h was 15year. Thisthe governr industryowever, thing as pow
ll FY 13, t) as input iement in/ days forin the sha
shown belo
of Gas
period of hith rate ofs in the sen living orlogical gwill negati
electricity a
ctors in Co
(%)
July-March F
-
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
Electricity Co
GDP (fc)
Energ
erall produPL networ
Engro's nein sufferersch FY 14,nsumption
ercent in cmajor upturment to prnd fertilizer usage of gr industry cere was inctransport,
gas sectorupplying Cre of trans:
gher growthelectricityse that growproductionods. Likeely affect t
shown bel
H
sumption of
14
2012-13
2013-14
sumption
227
ction. Fourk, includingw plant and of the gashe share oincreased to
rrespondingwas due tovide gas toindustry onas in powern substitute
rease in theowever duethere wereG that had
port in gas
is followedonsumptionth improves
by utilizingise, lowere growth o
w:
ouseholds23.2
Commercial3.1
Cement0.0
Fertilizer19.0
Gas
-
8/12/2019 Pakistan Energy Growth
12/14
228
The loweroccurred dgrowth inwill lower t
Prior to usectors exconsumptiohousehold.
percent inindustrial uof load shhome appli
made the sincreased t1993. Inconsumptio10 percentransformatindustrialagriculturealmost 26significant
14.3.4 Coa
Pakistansbituminous.2000. Abothe countryand 56.1decrease o
percent, reshas been shence utilmomentum
Pakistan ha185 billioidentified aThe powersignificanc
akistan Eco
rowth in ele to loss ofonsumptionhe growth o
nbundlinghibit a cn pattern,The share o993 to 29 pnits are usiedding. Incance due t
are of resid47 percent
case of an decreased
in 2013,ion awayand servicin real GDPpercent inchange in
oal general. Coal cont 39.1 perchas been ut
percent byf 3.46 per
pectively. Awitched ovzation of.
s huge coaltons; in
Thar coalproject at
due to
0
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
Years
Fig14.1
Source: Hyd
nomic Surv
ectricity corowth mo
of electricif GDP in n
f WAPDAange in
especiallyf industry dercent in 20g own capease in us technologi
ntial electri in 2013 frriculture sfrom 15 pthis sho
from agrices sector.declined to
1990s.Howthe consum
y ranks frosumption int of totalilized by bricement fa
cent and ilmost wholr from furingenious
esources estcluding 17ields (SindhPort Qasi
importance
%
:Shareinel
ocarbon Develo
y 2013-14
sumption centum and lty in one pxt period. P
to presenttheir elect
industrycreased fro13 becauseive unit bege of elec
cal improve
city consumm 36 percector, electrcent in 19 the strulture sectoThe shar
21 percentver, there i
ption patter
lignite tos varyingoal consumck kilns indtories, shocrease ofcement indace oil to
coal is ga
imated to e5 billionProvince) a had a spof Karach
0%
ctricitycons
ment Institute o
n beowereriodolicy
maconhigdow
, allicityand36
largeausericalment
tionnt inicity3 toturalr to
offroms non of
cocoalmyea
sub-sinced in
ustrying
1.83ustrycoalning
ceedtons,lone.eciali in
Pakthe
proplaa caGad6,6
14.
Thepossustgov
beedev(ADev
20%
mption
Pakistan
PercentageShare(%)
ers needumption oer growth in the pace o
merce. Hoposition of
st similar tas shown b
stan's econeconomic d
uction of ets is cheapepacity of 6ani in Balu0 MW in th
Alternativ
Governmeible measuinable dernment in it givinglopment oE) resourceelopment B
30%
Agri
Com
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%40%
45%
50%
Household
Figur
lans to a electricityn GDP whf growth in
ever, durinshare of elo that in clow:
my and it cevelopment
ectricity fr, ten coal-fi0 MW eachistan, whinational gr
Sources o
t of Pakistes to ensuelopments bid to divue attenti Alternativ in the couard (AED
40%
Percentage
ultural I
mercial
Commercial
Secto
14.13: Sha
consump
July-M
ddress thethat will och otherwioming year
July-Marcctricity correspondin
an play a crof Pakista
m the coalred power ph, are beinch would aid.
Energy
an (GoP) ire energyin the corsify its enen towardse / Renewtry. Altern) has been
50%
hare(%)
ndustrial
ousehold
Industrial Agri
rs
e in electrict
tion
rch FY 13 July-
growth inccur due toe will slow.
FY 14, thesumption is period last
ucial role in. Since the
fired powerrojects, with initiated atd a total o
s taking allecurity anduntry. Thegy mix, hasfast track
ble Energytive Energyandated to
ultural
arch FY 14
-
8/12/2019 Pakistan Energy Growth
13/14
Energy 229act as a central agency for development and
promotion of Alternative & Renewable Energy(ARE) technologies in the country and to facilitatethe private sector investment in this sector.
Steps Taken By AEDB to Attract Investment in
the Sector
AEDB has undertaken a number of supportivemeasures in order to promote ARE technologies andto attract private sector investments, which include;
Identification of new corridors for wind and solarenergy projects development. Resourceassessment of these corridors is underway.
National Grid Code for wind power projects hasbeen amended. Grid Integration Plan 2010 -2015for wind power projects has been developed byAEDB to support NTDC.
Local manufacturing of micro wind turbine hasbeen started. Manufacturing for large windturbines is also being encouraged. M/s DESCONhas setup a wind turbine tower manufacturingfacility and has provided towers for the first wind
project in Pakistan. M/s Three GorgesCorporation / CWE (China) has also established atower manufacturing facility which will beupgraded to wind turbine assembling facility infuture.
Issues related to financing of projects have beenresolved and now leading financing agencies likeInternational Finance Corporation (IFC), AsianDevelopment Bank (ADB), Overseas PrivateInvestment Corporation (OPIC), EconomicCooperation Organization (ECO), Trade Banketc. are offering financing to wind power projectsin Pakistan.
14.4.1 Wind
Thirty five wind power IPPs holding LOIs issuedby AEDB are at various stages of projectdevelopment.
Operational (Achieved Commercial OperationsDate) FFC Energy Limited: 49.5 MW wind project,
Jhampir, Distt. Thatta, Sindh Zorlu Enerji (Pvt.) Ltd. 56.4 MW wind
project, Jhampir, Distt. Thatta, Sindh.
Under Construction 50 MW Three Gorges First Wind Farm
Pakistan (Pvt.) Ltd., Jhampir Sindh 50 MW Foundation Wind Power I Ltd.
Khuttikun, Gharo, Sindh 50 MW Foundation Wind Power II (Pvt.)
Ltd., Khuttikun, Gharo, Sindh
Twelve projects with a cumulative capacity of630 MW are expected to achieve Financial Close
by 2014.
NERPA announced a new upfront tariff of UScents 13.5244 per kWh on 24th April 2013 for500 MW wind power projects. The wind powercompanies interested in opting Upfront Tariffwill have to achieve Financial Close of their
project by September 30, 2014.
14.4.2 Solar
In Solar Energy, 24 LOIs for cumulative capacityof approximately 792.99 MW On-Grid Solar PV
power plants have been issued. Four (4)companies have submitted the feasibility studiesof their projects and one feasibility study isapproved by AEDB. Other sponsors are at thestage of preparation of feasibility studies
Solar Village Electrification Program wasinitiated under PMs directive. 3000 Solar HomeSystems have been installed in 49 villages ofdistrict Tharparkar, Sindh. Another 51 villages inSindh and 300 villages in Baluchistan have beenapproved for electrification using solar energyand will be implemented shortly.
AEDB in light of SRO 575(1)12006 issued dutyexemption certificates for a large number of solar
panels / solar modules to private sectorcompanies for installation / generation of almost
64.57MW of energy in the country. These solarpanels / solar modules are deployed all over thecountry.
AEDB issued tax exemption certificate forimport of almost 16715 units of Solar WaterHeaters in the country. These heaters aredeployed all over the country especially inBaluchistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, KhyberPakhtunkhwa and Northern Punjab.
AEDB also issued tax exemption certificate forimport of about 1429 units of Solar Water
Pumping System in the country. These waterpumping systems are installed for communitydrinking and agriculture purpose all overPakistan.
14.4.3 Biomass / Waste-to-energy
Framework for power Co-Generation has beenapproved by ECC for bagasse/biomass based sugarindustry projects. 1500-2000 MW of power isexpected to be generated in next 2-3 years. LOIs has
been issued to following investors / sugar millsunder this framework;
M/s JDW Sugar Mills Unit-II (26 MW), RahimYar Khan, Punjab.
-
8/12/2019 Pakistan Energy Growth
14/14
230 Pakistan Economic Survey 2013-14
M/s JDW Sugar Mills Unit-III, (26 MW),Ghotki, Sindh.
M/s Hamza Sugar Mills Ltd., (15 MW) M/s RYK Sugar Mills Ltd., (19 MW) Rahim
Yar Khan, Punjab. M/s Chiniot Power Plant, (15 MW), Chiniot,
Punjab.
14.4.4 Small / Mini / Micro Hydro
Eight hydro projects have been initiated under theRenewable Energy Development SectorInvestment Program (REDSIP) with the supportof Asian Development Bank (ADB). These
projects are being implemented in KhyberPakhtunkhwa and Punjab with an estimated costof US $ 290 Million.
Another 02 small hydro power projects have beeninitiated under REDSIP. PC-I for these projectshave been approved. Loan approval from ADB isawaited.
The Government of Punjab issued LOIs toprivate investors for establishment of 10 smallhydro projects with a cumulative capacity of 142MW at different location in Punjab.
AEDB is building capacities for private sectorinvestment in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (22 projectsof cumulative 92 MW capacity throughPakhtunkhwa Hydel Development Organization
(PHYDO) and Punjab (30 projects of cumulative240 MW capacity through Energy Department /Punjab Power Development Board (PPDB).
AEDB initiated a program with the assistance ofGIZ support to assist the provinces solicit privateinvestments in small hydro sector; under this
program Pre-Feasibility Studies for 25 hydrosites in AJK, Sindh, Punjab and KhyberPakhtunkhwa with the cumulative capacity of284.14 MW have been completed.
Public sector Hydro power projects initiated in: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (worth U$ 150.99
Million, of 17.0MW, 36.6MW and 2.6 MW) Punjab (worth U$ 138.74 Million, of
5.38MW, 4.04MW, 2.82MW, 4.16MW and7.64MW)
Gilgit-Baltistan(worth U$ 71.12 Million, of26MW and 4MW).
14.4.5 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
CDM is one of the instruments that developers of theAlternative and Renewable Energy (ARE) Projects
pursue and earn financial returns by getting theirprojects registered with CDM Executive Board andselling the accrued Certified Emission Reduction(CER) certificates in the international carbonmarket.
Way Forward
Realizing the criticality of energy for economicgrowth, it is the main focus of Pakistan Vision 2025.The vision aims at ensuring uninterrupted access toaffordable and clean energy for all sections of the
population and aimed at resolving structural changeswithin the energy sector are fundamental to futureeconomic prospects. The main elements of thisvision include:1. Optimize energy supply mixeconomic,
scalable, indigenous by 2025
2. Reduce cost per unit3. Reduce supply gap by 2018 and exceed demandgap by 2025
4. Create and encourage culture of conservationand efficiency in the usage of energy
Nonetheless, these projects have long digestionperiod and would come in to system in few years. Itis also highlighted that through efficient reallocationof natural gas based on economic sense is essentialto get best value for money.