ontario election update

OREA CAMPAIGN COLLEGEMONDAY, APRIL 18, 2011

John WrightSenior Vice President

Ipsos Reid

CAMPAIGNS MATTER

CAMPAIGNS START LONG BEFORE THE WRIT IS DROPPED

CAMPAIGNS ARE TO SHAPE THE MOTIVATING BALLOT QUESTION

3

Thinking of how you feel right now, if a PROVINCIAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties’ candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?

When I Spoke to OREA in November, 2010…

4245 46 45 45

39 38 37

3232

41

17 1613 13 12

16 15

2018

20

810 10 10 11

9 10 11 11

7

35

3634

3229

31 32 31

36

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Oct '07 Jan '09 April'09

May '09 July '09 Oct '09 Dec '09 June'10

Aug '10 Nov '10

Party Support in Ontario (TRACKING 2007-2011),

Election Results

Time for a Change: 64%...

4

Some people say that the Liberal government under Premier Dalton McGuinty has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected during the Provincial election this upcoming October. Other people say that it is time for another provincial political party to take over and run the province. Which statement is closest to your point of view?

30%

64%

6%

McGuinty government hasdone a good job anddeserves re-election

Time for another provincialpolitical party to take over

Don't know/Refused

Wrong Direction: 68%...

5

Overall, would you say that Ontario is headed on the right track these days or headed in the wrong direction?

32%

68%

Right Track Wrong Direction

Best Premier: Hudak (37%) versus McGuinty (29%)…

6

Which of the provincial party leaders do you think would make the best Premier of Ontario?

29%

37%

21%

13%

Dalton McGuinty

Tim Hudak

Andrea Horwath

Mike Schreiner

Trust: Hudak 33% (+6)…Who will Get Things Done : 41% (+10)…

7

Please indicate which leader is best described by each trait:

27%

33%

25%

15%

Premier DaltonMcGuinty, Leader

of the Liberal Party

ProgressiveConservative

Leader Tim Hudak

NDP LeaderAndrea Horwath

Green PartyLeader Mike

Schreiner

Someone you can trust

31%

41%

20%

9%

Premier DaltonMcGuinty, Leader of

the Liberal Party

ProgressiveConservative Leader

Tim Hudak

NDP Leader AndreaHorwath

Green Party LeaderMike Schreiner

Someone who will get things done

What it Takes to Lead Ontario: Hudak 41% (+11)…Who Has a Vision to Support: Hudak 40% (+16)…

8


30%

41%

20%

9%


of the LiberalParty

ProgressiveConservativeLeader Tim

Hudak



Schreiner

Someone who has what it takes to lead Ontario

24%

40%

23%

13%


of the LiberalParty


Hudak



Schreiner

Someone who has a vision of Ontario that you can support

Hidden Agenda: McGuinty (+32)…Open to Ideas: Hudak (+8)…

9


56%

24%

12%

8%


of the LiberalParty

ProgressiveConservative

Leader Tim Hudak



Schreiner

Someone who has a hidden agenda

20%

28%

27%

25%

Premier DaltonMcGuinty,

Leader of theLiberal Party


Hudak



Schreiner

Someone who is open to the ideas of others

Someone Who Can Compromise: Hudak 33%(+5)…Best to Manage the Economy: 43% Hudak (+14)…

10


28%

33%

26%

12%




Hudak

NDP LeaderAndrea

Horwath


Schreiner

Someone who knows when to compromise for the greater good

29%

43%

21%

7%




Hudak

NDP LeaderAndrea

Horwath


Schreiner

Someone who is best to manage the economy

Best Manage Taxpayers Dollars: Hudak 38% (+13)…Best Manage Healthcare System: Hudak 37% (+12)…

11


25%

38%

21%

15%




Hudak

NDP LeaderAndrea

Horwath


Schreiner

Someone who is best to manage taxpayers dollars

25%

37%

26%

12%


of the LiberalParty


Hudak



Schreiner

Someone who is best to manage the future of the provincial healthcare system

Liberals on Their Heels…Hudak Pressing

McGuinty Government Scandals: Incompetent

High Rates and Taxes: Hurt Families

Deficit Spending Out of Control: Must Manage,Must Have a Plan or Ruin

Turning the Battleship Around

December 2010: Battle Maneuvers Began

The Liberal Campaign March…

In December the Liberals struck back on almost all fronts with what I call the "Buckley's" formula: it's tough

medicine to make the province work better and to build--like Hydro Rates

The Liberal communications team took over as the policy people shut down and the Premier went on tour with his

economic/jobs message

The Liberals challenged: show us your plans and alternatives: Hydro, HST, Healthcare, Education

Made a virtue out of tough medicine, started shutting down controversial items (gas plant dropped in Oakville/compensation, Wind Farm moratorium)

Hudak stumbled during his buck a beer week on healthcare: Feb 3 Tory media release said "If elected premier he would not cut the heath tax or Ontario's health-re budget". A few days later he said that "all options" were on the table to

give voters some relief, including the health tax

"Family Coalition" starts attacking Hudak with ad's, Teachers say they will support McGuinty, and the Mike Harris

'Haunting' in Toronto picks up

The Budget shows the deficit being paid down sooner and puts Healthcare and Education up as the ballot targets

There is Caucus Unrest with PC’s over Nominations

The Liberal Campaign March…

We Went From This:

TO THIS:

AND THIS:

AND EVEN GOT SOME HELP WHERE

HE DIDN’T EXPECT IT…

178 Days Until The Provincial Election

Current Federal Election Has And Will Have An Impact

Ipsos Stopped Polling On Ontario Politics In March Because Of Federal Campaign "Spill“

But at the End of February…

21

Thinking of how you feel right now, if a PROVINCIAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties’ candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?

Ontario Provincial Vote Support February 2011…

4245 46 45 45

39 38 37

32

37

32

41

37

17 1613 13 12

16 15

2018

2017 16

810 10 10 11

9 10 11 11

79 8

3535

383634

3229

31 32 31

36

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Oct'07

Jan'09

April'09

May'09

July'09

Oct'09

Dec'09

June'10

Aug'10

Nov'10

Jan'11

Feb'11

Party Support in Ontario (TRACKING 2007-2011),

Election Results

Provincial Vote Intentions in Toronto…

22

Parties/candidates supported/lean towards Base: All respondents n=513

43%

21%

14%

6%

1%

15%

The Ontario Liberals, led by Dalton McGuinty

The Ontario Progressive Conservatives (PC), led by TimHudak

The Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP), led by AndreaHorwath

The Ontario Green Party, led by Mike Schreiner

Other

Don't know

Approval Ratings Provincial Leaders in Toronto…

23

. Generally speaking would you say you approve or disapprove of the overall performance of the following? Base: All respondents n=513

12%

9%

7%

42%

42%

40%

25%

36%

34%

21%

13%

19%

Premier Dalton McGuinty

Provincial NDP LeaderAndrea Horwath

Provincial ConservativeLeader Tim Hudak

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove

54%

% Strongly/Somewhat

Approve

51%

47%

Potential to form Government: Not at all…

But Policies will be Important to Watch as Liberals Conscious of their Far Left Flank

Andrea Horwath – First Campaign will Likely Use Jack Layton/Olivia Chow to Campaign in

Toronto/North/Southwest

More Center Left than Hard Labour Left?

Wildcard Spoilers: Possible Minority Brokers

The NDP…

Why You Matter

Voting by Own vs. Rent…2010 Municipal Elections…

26

Thinking about the most recent municipal election held in your municipality or region, did you vote?Base: All respondents: Net own n=972; Net rent n=547.

Net Own Net Rent

Those who own their home are much more likely (74%) to say they voted in their most recent municipal election than those who rent (48%).

Rating Investments as Builders of Equity and Wealth in Ontario:

27

Thinking about your financial future, please indicate the degree to which you believe the following forms of investments are good or not at building equity and wealth: Base: All respondents n=1,519

86%

79%

74%

63%

26%

23%

22%

Very/pretty good

ISSUES IN ONTARIO

Issue Watch: Jobs and Economy Top Concern in Ontario…

3%

5%

6%

10%

11%

11%

13%

27%

29%

35%

Crime/Violence

Deficit/Govnt Spending

Social Services

Transportation/Infrastructure

Energy/Hydro

Taxes

Education

Healthcare

Environment

Econ/Unemploy/Cost of Living

The Economy: Global and National

31

The Global Average Assessment of National Economies in 24 Countries: Flat Lined…

% Very Good / Somewhat Good

45%

32%29%

38% 38% 39% 39% 40% 41% 40%42% 41% 41% 40% 41%

38%

55%56%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr/07 Oct/07 Apr/08 Nov/08 Apr/09Nov/Jan/10Apr/10 May/10 Jun/10 Jul/10 Aug/10 Sept/10 Oct/10 Nov/10 Dec/10 Jan/11 Feb/11 Mar/11

Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?

3

32Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?


38%85%

73%

71%70%

67%

64%62%

53%

43%43%

40%

40%

36%26%

22%

22%19%

19%

12%10%

8%

8%6%

3%

TotalSaudi Arabia

IndiaSweden

AustraliaChina

CanadaGermany

BrazilArgentina

TurkeyIndonesia

South AfricaBelgium

RussiaMexico

South KoreaPoland

United StatesItaly

FranceGreat Britain

JapanSpain

Hungary

Global Citizens Who Assess Current Economic Situation in their Country as “Good”: Canada 6th of 24…

3333

Assessment of the Overall State of the Economy- Tracking from 1994 to March 2011…

49%

65%

74%77%

81%

69%

77%74%

66%

75%

81%78%76%

73%

80%81%83%87%

78%74%73%

66%

53%

62%59%

56%51% 53%54%

62%62%67%68%

58%60%59% 60%64%

59%

51%

35%

26%23%

19%

31%

23%26%

34%

25%

19%22%24%

27%

20%19%17%13%

22%26%27%

34%

59%

47%46%

38%38%33%32%

42%40%41% 40%36%

61%60%

54%

48%

44%41% 41%

47%

39%40%

46%

52%

56%53%

47%

38%

44%41%

49%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jul 9

4

May

95

Jul 9

6

May

97

May

98

May

99

Jul 0

0

Nov 0

2

Apr 0

3

Feb

04

May

04

Sep 0

4

Nov 0

4

Feb

05

May

05

Sep 0

5

Feb

06

Nov 0

6

Apr 0

7

Aug 0

7

Apr 0

8

Aug 0

8

Oct 0

8

Nov 0

8

Jan

09

Mar

09

May

09

Jul 0

9

Sep 0

9

Nov 0

9

Dec 0

9

Jan

10

Feb

10

Mar

10

Apr 1

0

May

10

Jun

10

Jul 1

0

Aug 1

0

Sep 1

0

Oct 1

0

Nov 1

0

Dec 1

0

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar

11

Good Bad

Base: All Respondents n = 3520

In terms of the current economic conditions in Canada as a whole, how would you describe the overall state of the economy right now? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? Q.1.

34

Canadians and Americans AssessCurrent National Economic Condition…


47%

19% 19%

11% 13%

20%17%

25%23%

18% 17%15% 15%

18%20% 19% 20% 20% 19%

80%

87%

48%43%

60%65% 67%

64%68% 68%

65%68%

63% 63% 62%

68% 68%64%

68%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ap

r 20

07

Oct

200

7

Ap

r 20

08

No

v 20

08

Ap

r 20

09

No

v/Ja

n 2

010

Mar

201

0

Ap

r 20

10

May

201

0

Jun

201

0

Jul 2

010

Au

g 2

010

Sep

t 20

10

Oct

201

0

No

v 20

10

Dec

201

0

Jan

201

1

Feb

201

1

Mar

/11

United States Canada

Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?

35

Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.

% Strong (Top 3 - 5-6-7)

29%62%

56%53%

52%51%

46%41%

38%33%

30%26%

23%22%

19%18%

17%17%

16%16%16%

12%9%9%

5%

TotalSaudi Arabia

ChinaAustralia

IndiaSwedenCanada

BrazilGermany

TurkeyIndonesiaArgentina

BelgiumSouth Africa

PolandUnited States

MexicoRussiaFrance

ItalySouth KoreaGreat Britain

HungarySpainJapan

Citizen Consumers Who Say Current Local Economy Condition Strong…

36

Canadians and Americans AssessCurrent Local Economic Condition…

% Strong (Top 3 - 5-6-7)

20% 21% 21% 21% 20%17% 16%

19% 20% 20% 19%

24%

18%

44%47%

45% 46% 47% 46%48%

43%46%

42%

49% 49%46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011


Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.

37

Citizen Consumers Who Say Economy in the Local Area Stronger in Next Six Months…

Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?

% Much Stronger / Somewhat Stronger

26%

67%

56%

55%

44%

43%

40%

29%

28%

28%

26%

22%

21%

21%

19%

18%

17%

17%

16%

14%

14%

10%

8%

8%4%

Total

Brazil

Saudi Arabia

India

Argentina

Mexico

China

Indonesia

Canada

Turkey

Germany

Australia

Spain

United States

South Korea

Russia

Italy

Sweden

South Africa

Belgium

Poland

Hungary

Great Britain

Japan

France

38

Canadians and Americans AssessLocal Economic 6 Month Outlook…

% Much Stronger / Somewhat Stronger

31%

23%22% 22%

24%25%

27% 27%

21%

32%

28%

27%

32%

36%

29% 29%

31%

27%

38%

27%26%

25%

30%

29%

35%

27%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011


Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?

Provincial

4040

Job Anxiety: Nationally Total = 22%, (+2 since January)…

17%-2

18%-1

16%+1

28%+5

21%+4

21%+2

Are you or is anyone in your household worried about losing their job or being laid off? Q.7. Base: All Respondents n = 3520 *Percentage of People Who Responded ‘Yes – Worried’

414141

Perception of Overall State of the Canadian Economy Total National: Ontario 61% “Good”

In terms of the current economic conditions in Canada as a whole, how would you describe the overall state of the economy right now? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? Q.1.

61%

63%

69%

75%

61%

55%

61%

39%

37%

31%

25%

39%

45%

39%

Total

BC

AB

SK/MB

Ontario

Quebec

Atlantic

GoodBad

Percent ‘Good’ Change

over Previous Quarter

+1%

+1%

-6%

-2%

+6%

0%

-5%


424242

Outlook for the Canadian Economy - Over the Next Year : Ontario 41% “Improve”…

(Canadian economy).Thinking about the next year or so, do you, yourself, generally feel that the Canadian economy and your own economic situation will improve, stay the same or get worse? Q.9_1.

42%

46%

45%

44%

37%

33%

26%

26%

22%

22%

24%

27%

36%

50%

Total

BC

AB

SK/MB

Ontario

Quebec

Atlantic

Improve

Worsen

Percent ‘Improve’ Change


-1%

0%

-11%

-4%

+2%

+5%

-11%

Base: All Respondents n =3520

434343

Outlook for Personal Financial Situation - Over the Next Year : Ontario 39% “Improve…

Your own financial situation.Thinking about the next year or so, do you, yourself, generally feel that the Canadian economy and your own financial situation will improve, stay the same or get worse? Q.9_2.

39%

36%

45%

40%

39%

43%

31%

22%

22%

20%

21%

23%

18%

26%

Total

BC

AB

SK/MB

Ontario

Quebec

Atlantic

Improve

Worsen

Percent ‘Improve’ Change


+1%

-2%

-3%

0%

+3%

+8%

-13%


But House Purchase Intent Has Declined In Alberta And Ontario…

9%

9%

7%

8%

13%

9%

9%

8%

10%

7%

10%

10%

7%

9%

7%

9%

11%

8%

21%

21%

19%

25%

22%

26%

20%

20%

14%

21%

24%

19%

22%

17%

15%

15%

15%

17%

32%

26%

28%

21%

26%

21%

32%

20%

19%

28%

24%

20%

30%

25%

28%

31%

28%

21%

39%

44%

46%

45%

39%

43%

39%

52%

56%

44%

42%

50%

41%

49%

50%

45%

46%

54%

BC 2011 (n=282)

2010 (n=186)

2009 (n=314)

Alberta 2011 (n=186)

2010 (n=276)

2009 (n=174)

Man/Sask 2011 (n=145)

2010 (n=166)

2009 (n=108)

Ontario 2011 (n=774)

2010 (n=775)

2009 (n=771)

Quebec 2011 (n=565)

2010 (n=465)

2009 (n=499)

Atlantic 2011 (n=151)

2010 (n=179)

2009 (n=160)

Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not at all likely

Q6. How likely are you to purchase a home, or another home, within the next two years? Are you ... Base: All Respondents

Some Attitudes Towards Home Ownership and Government in Ontario…

The government shouldprovide home owners withincentives to reduce their

energy costs

The government shouldencourage home-renovation

through tax credits

The government shouldreduce the taxes paid when

buying a home

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

45

Thinking about home ownership, to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?Base: Own a home n=972

95%

94%

93%

Strongly/somewhat

agree

Conclusions

Conclusions…

What Does It Take For A Majority Government In Ontario?42%...

How Long is a Week in Politics?A Lifetime…

Who Has the Greatest Ability to Set the Agenda?The Sitting Government…

What is Critical to Know?Campaigns Matter in Shaping a Ballot Question…

So, How is This One Shaping Up?

Conclusions…

A Possible Minority Either Way For Liberals or Conservatives

A fight for Hard Working Families

Liberals

Healthcare (McGuinty already Calling out Feds)

EducationGrowthStability

Making Tough Decisions

Conclusions…

A Possible Minority Either Way For Liberals or Conservatives

A fight for Hard Working Families

Conservatives

Scandals: Out of TouchDeficit Spending: Out of Control

TAXESA Bleak Future Without Change

But Remember:

CAMPAIGNS MATTER

OREA CAMPAIGN COLLEGEMONDAY, APRIL 18, 2011

John WrightSenior Vice President

Ipsos Reid

ontario election update

News & Politics