u.s. chamber post 2012 election update
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
ICCE Fall Conference
November 15, 2012
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 ElectionsPolitical Landscape Before Vote
Direction of Country: 40% right track55% wrong track
President’s Job : 49% approval 47% disapproval
Congressional Job Approval: 17% approval 75% disapproval
Generic Congressional Vote: 45% Dem45% GOP
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 Elections
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 Elections
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 Elections
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 Elections
Battleground Exit Polls
• Support from key constituencies• President more likable than Romney• Voters were more optimistic about
economy• Super-storm Sandy
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 Elections
President Obama’s Win
Demographics + Ground Game
Women 55 % of the vote
Hispanics 71 % of the vote
African-Americans 93 % of the vote
Asian 73 % of the vote
Youth (18-29) 60 % of the vote
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 Elections
Battleground Exit Polls
“Role of Government”
• 43% of voters want an “activist government”
• Compared to 52% in 2008
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 ElectionsU.S. Senate
Currently: 51 D / 47 R / 2 Ind.(GOP needed 4 for control)
2012 Senate Elections: 23 D / 10 R
– 7 Dem Open / 2 GOP Open– 9 of the 23 seats held by Democrats voted for Bush or
McCain in the past two Presidential elections– 5 Dem held seats are “toss up” = MT, ND, VA, WI & CT– 1 Dem held seats “lean or likely” GOP = NE– 5 GOP held seats are “toss up” = AZ, NV, MA, ME & IN
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 Elections
U.S. Senate Results
113th Congress: 52 D / 45 R / 3 Ind.
Democrats Picked Up: Indiana – Rep. Donnelly defeated MourdockMaine – King defeated Summers and DillMassachusetts – Warren defeated Sen. Brown
Republicans Picked Up: Nebraska – State Sen. Fischer defeated former
Senator Kerrey
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 Elections
U.S. House Results
Currently 242 R / 193 D (Ds + 25 for control)
113th Congress 234 R / 193 D (8 not decided)
24 members are ran against each other, thanks to redistricting
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The Fiscal Cliff
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Q3 Small Business Outlook Survey
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Federal Spending, Deficits and Debt
Federal Deficit
• 2011 deficit was $1.3 trillion.
• 2012 deficit projected at $1.1 trillion
• The fourth consecutive annual deficit exceeding $1 trillion.
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Federal Spending, Deficits and Debt
Federal Debt
• Gross debt at $16 trillion dollars ($11 trillion was held by the public and $5 trillion was intergovernmental holdings).
• Could lead to higher interest rates, a weak dollar, more inflation, less private investment, lower economic and job growth and decline in our global competitiveness.
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Federal Debt
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Federal Debt
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Spending Composition
More Than Half Of Spending On “Auto-Pilot” Biggest Driver Is Aging Baby-Boomer Generation
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Spending Projections
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The Fiscal Cliff
Budget Control Act of 2011 – Set the stage
• Debt limit increase - $900 billion increase in debt limit and $917 billion in discretionary budget cuts.
• Super Committee - 12 member Committee failed to adopt $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction (through budget cuts and/or taxes).
• The Act mandates $1.2 trillion in Spending Cuts over ten years beginning in 2013.
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The Fiscal Cliff
This includes the Bush tax cuts, traditional tax extenders (i.e. dividends, marginal rates, R&D, expensing) and other stimulus measures (i.e. payroll tax cut and Unemployment Insurance benefits).
Sequestration would cut funding by approximately $55 billion for defense and $55 billion for non-defense spending – a total of $1.2 trillion over 10 years.
Another increase in the debt ceiling will be required early in 2013, perhaps sooner depending on the cash-burn rate.
THE KEY ELEMENTS WHAT’S INVOLVED
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Economic Impact
Going over the “cliff”
– Moody’s has issued a warning that it would downgrade America's credit rating if Congress fails to reach a deal.
– CBO: going over the cliff would spark a recession by slowing the economy by 0.5% and remain below potential until 2018.
– CBO: unemployment would rise from 7.9 to 9.1 percent by the end of 2013
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The Budget
• U.S. Chamber believes that enhancing economic and job growth is a prerequisite to achieve a balanced budget, but growth alone will not be enough.
• Congress must reform entitlement programs and restructure the tax code to bring revenue and spending back into alignment.
– Reform entitlements – Comprises over 55% of federal spending.
– Reform the U.S. tax code – To improve efficiency and drive economic growth and bring revenue and spending back into alignment.
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Tax Reform – Why do we need it?
• The United States has the world’s highest corporate tax rate.
• The United States is the only country that has a worldwide system of tax.
• Taxpayers spend 6.1 billion hours a year complying.
• AMT was enacted in response to reports that 155 taxpayers legally avoided paying tax. In 2012, 31 million will be subject to AMT.
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Comprehensive Tax Reform
• Lower the corporate tax rate
• Adopt a Territorial Tax System
• Simply Tax Code
• Make reforms permanent
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Lame Duck
Set for November 13
• Fiscal Cliff
• Taxes (Extension)
• Spending Cuts (Sequestration)
• Russian PNTR
• Filibuster Rules
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Lame Duck
Major Tax Provisions
• Expiration of the Bush tax cuts (December 31, 2012)
• Expiration of the payroll tax cut (December 31, 2012)
• Expiration of unemployment benefits (December 31, 2012)
• Sequestration (January 2, 2013)
• AMT patch (December 31, 2012)
• Expiration of the tax extenders (R&D tax credit)
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Lame Duck
Three Options:
• NO DEAL
• Kick The Can
• Bridge Solution / Grand Bargain
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Debt Ceiling
Here's a number to watch: $224 billion
That is the difference between the U.S. federal debt outstanding, as of Nov. 5, and the debt ceiling of $16.394 trillion.
The gap will shrink in coming weeks.
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Elections
Clearly…
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Elections
Clearly…
Elections Matter
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2014 ElectionsU.S. Senate
113th Congress: 52 D / 45 R / 3 Ind.
2014 Elections: 20 D / 13 R
– 12 D come from either Red States or Swing
States: LA, AR, AK, SD, ND, MT– 1 R comes from a NON Red State = ME (Collins)
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Q3 Small Business Outlook Survey
Perhaps THE Most Important Finding!97 % of Small Businesses surveyed cite a candidate’s support for the free enterprise system as important to how they will vote this year.
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
America’s Small Business Summit!
Save the Date:April 29 – May 1, 2013 | Washington, D.C.
For more information, visit www.uschambersummit.com.
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
USCC Midwest Regional Office on Facebook!
Why should you become a fan?
• Latest news on USCC Programs
• Know what’s happening in D.C.
• Tell us what’s going on at your chamber!
• See what other Chambers in the Region
are doing
‘Like Us’ at www.facebook.com/uschambermidwest
U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
U.S. Chamber of CommerceMidwest Regional Office
Questions?
Doug LoonVice President, Regional Affairs