ontario construction labour assessment 2012 2020
DESCRIPTION
A presentation from the province of Ontario on the Assessment of Construction Labour Markets from 2012 to 2020TRANSCRIPT
CONSTRUCTION LOOKING FORWARD An Assessment of Construction Labour Markets from 2012 to 2020 ONTARIO
Construction Looking Forward Ontario
Contents § Highlights and Introduction § Economic Assumptions § Investment Outlook: Building Trends and Major Projects § Construction Labour Requirements § The Available Workforce § Market Rankings and Mobility § Conclusion Note: Definitions, methodology and detailed tables are available at www.constructionforecasts.ca
Construction Looking Forward 2012 § Reports on the state of construction labour markets in Ontario from
2012 to 2020 are based on: • a current macroeconomic and demographic scenario • a current inventory of major construction projects • the views and input of provincial LMI committees
Introduction
§ Construction has been a leading employment-generating industry for more than 20 years in Ontario, and is poised to remain so for the foreseeable future.
§ Construction employment for the trades and occupations tracked by the CSC will expand by almost 44,000 workers (14 percent) across the scenario period, with 14,000 (9 percent) in residential construction and 30,000 (17 percent) in non-residential construction. • The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) dominates employment
growth in Ontario, accounting for 70 percent, or 30,000 of the 44,000 new jobs created.
§ Although the estimated 44,000 new jobs are just half compared to the additions to the workforce recruited over the past eight years, investments in support systems and human resource planning may be tested as the next round of building projects unfold from 2012 to 2020.
Highlights
§ At the provincial level, labour requirements are evenly dispersed across the scenario period, but changes in regional markets are very different and attention shifts to distinct regional patterns.
§ Peaks and troughs punctuate cycles in major utility, industrial and infrastructure projects in the GTA, and the Southwest and Northern regions of the province.
§ Recruiting faces increased challenges from the growing loss of skilled and experienced workers, as 77,000 workers are expected to retire.
§ To address expansion and replacement demand requirements, industry will need to recruit an estimated 120,000 new workers to construction.
Highlights
Economic Environment
§ It is assumed that the federal and provincial governments will begin to reduce both current and capital expenditures in an effort to eliminate deficits.
§ The short- to medium-term outlook for major trading partners is weaker.
§ In the long-term, economic growth strengthens in both major trading partners and Canada, as deficits and debt come under control.
§ Canadian output growth will average around 2 percent across the 2012–2020 period.
§ In the medium term, inflation and interest rates remain low, but rise in the long term as growth strengthens.
§ The Canada-U.S. exchange rate remains strong in the short term, but falls toward its underlying value over the scenario period.
Economic Environment
Commodity prices § Oil prices recovered in 2010 and into 2011, but are expected to
weaken somewhat in 2012 and 2013 in line with weaker world growth, and then recover thereafter in line with stronger economic growth.
§ Natural gas prices remain weak because of expected increases in shale gas and then start to strengthen after 2015.
§ Agricultural prices continue upward over the scenario period reflecting a tightening of these markets.
§ Metals and mineral prices continue to trend upward, reflecting the growth of the world economy driven to a large extent by China and Asia.
Construction by sector § Residential investment slows in 2012, but increases in 2013, with a
modest rate of growth sustained through to 2020.
§ Renovation expenditures increase steadily, but moderately. § Non-residential activity rises across the scenario period – driven by
large mining and utility projects.
Investment Outlook
Residential Construction Investment ($2002 millions)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000 20
03
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
New housing Renovations
Housing Starts and Household Formation (000s)
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Housing starts Household formation
Non-residential Construction ($2002 millions)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000 20
03
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Building Engineering
Investment Outlook for the Province – Major Projects
Eastern Ontario -‐ light rail transit -‐ infrastructure -‐ u0li0es
Southwest Ontario -‐ Windsor parkway/bridge -‐ nuclear refurbishments -‐ infrastructure -‐ wind farms/solar
Greater Toronto Area -‐ u0li0es (new nuclear and refurbishments, transmission) -‐ Pan American Games -‐ Metrolinx -‐ other infrastructure
Central Ontario -‐ light rail transit -‐ infrastructure -‐ Pan American Games -‐ u0li0es
Northern Ontario -‐ mining (Ring of Fire) -‐ u0li0es
Investment Outlook for the Province
Ontario: selected major projects § The CSC tracks major projects underway or planned for
construction in the province. While there are too many to list here, following are a few examples: • Mining
o Eagles Nest (Noront Resources)
o Black Thor (Cliffs Natural Resources)
o Copper Cliff nickel smelter emission reduction (Vale)
o Copper Cliff nickel mine replacement/expansion (Vale)
o Clarabelle Mill (Vale)
o Detour Lake (Detour Gold Corp.)
Investment Outlook for the Province
Ontario: selected major projects • Utilities
o OPG (various projects, including new nuclear and refurbishments)
o Bruce Power nuclear refurbishments
o wind/solar projects
• Pan American Games o Athlete’s Village
o Aquatics Centre
o Velodrome
o various other venues
Investment Outlook for the Province
Ontario: selected major projects • Infrastructure (various projects across Ontario)
o Oakville Hospital (other heath care facilities across the province)
o Ottawa light rail transit system
o Waterloo light rail transit system § Windsor–Essex Parkway § Detroit River International Crossing (DRIC) § Pearson International Airport rail link § subway stations upgrades/extensions
• Infrastructure Ontario o long list of projects underway and proposed
• Metrolinx o various transit projects
Building Construction ($2002 millions)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000 20
03
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Industrial Commercial and institutional
Engineering Construction ($2002 millions)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000 20
03
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Highway and bridge Other engineering
Employment scenario for Ontario, 2012–2020 § Steady recovery in construction across both residential and non-
residential sectors leads economic recovery in Ontario:
• non-residential rises by 14 percent • residential rises by 10 percent
§ Construction activity is concentrated in the GTA • engineering projects lead all sectors
• industrial, commercial and institutional rises steadily
§ More volatile housing and major project cycles dominate in the Central, Eastern, Southwest and Northern regions.
Construction Labour Requirements
Construction Employment in Ontario
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Num
ber
of w
orke
rs
Non-residential Residential Total
History Scenario
Employment scenario for the regions, 2012–2020 § Residential recovery resumes in 2013 and a modest rate of growth
is sustained through 2020. § Non-residential work in the GTA dominates all new jobs in Ontario.
§ Growth in industrial, commercial and institutional building bolsters activity across the regions.
§ The timing of big engineering and industrial projects tightens labour markets at different times in specific regions:
• GTA – 2015 to 2018 • Northern – 2012 and 2013
• Southwest – 2015
Construction Labour Requirements
Residential Construction Investment and Employment Index for Ontario
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
New residential investment Residential renovation and maintenance Residential employment
Non-residential Construction Investment and Employment Index for Ontario
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
Industrial, commercial and institutional construction investment Engineering investment Non-residential employment
The Available Workforce – Ontario
Supply-side adjustments § Unemployment rates reached record low levels 2007.
§ Unemployment in 2009 exceeded long-term rates.
§ Recovery in 2010 and 2011 brought conditions in most markets back to more normal historical levels.
§ Sustained requirements over the scenario period keep rates below long-term normal or average levels.
The Available Workforce – Ontario
Supply-side adjustments § Supply side, 2012 to 2020:
• labour force requirements rise by 43,000 in response to expansion demand
• estimated retirements total 77,000 workers
• expansion plus replacement demand is estimated at 120,000 workers
• total demand requirements are expected to be partially offset by an estimated 60,000 first-time new entrants into the construction workforce (comprises local residents aged 30 and younger)
• industry will need to attract an additional 60,000 workers as net in-mobility rises to balance labour demand requirements
Change in Construction Labour Force in Ontario
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Num
ber
of w
orke
rs
Net in-mobility New entrants Retirements Total change in labour force
Total change in labour force N = New entrants N + Net in-‐mobility N
-‐ Re:rements N
The Available Workforce – Ontario
Supply-side adjustments § Mobility between regions will not meet peak requirements.
• Net-in mobility is positive in all regions in most years.
§ The largest demands for in-mobility are over the near term for Northern Ontario and across most of the scenario period for the Greater Toronto Area.
§ Market conditions are assessed by combining four measures into a ranking:
• excess supply (unemployment)
• annual change in employment
• net in-mobility as a percent of the labour force
• industry consultations
§ Rankings describe conditions on a scale from 1 to 5.
Labour Market Rankings
Labour Market Rankings
5 Qualified workers are not available in local or adjacent markets. Competition is intense.
4 Qualified workers are generally not available in local and adjacent markets. Recruiting may extend beyond traditional sources and practices.
3 Qualified workers in the local market may be limited by short-term increases in demand. Established patterns of recruiting are sufficient.
2 Qualified workers are available in local or adjacent markets.
1 Qualified workers are available in local markets. Excess supply is apparent. Workers may move to other markets.
Labour Market Rankings for Ontario Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Boilermakers 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 Bricklayers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Carpenters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Concrete finishers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Construction estimators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Construction managers 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3
Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 3 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2
Contractors and supervisors 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Crane operators 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Drillers and blasters 2 4 3 1 4 3 3 2 3 2 Electricians (including industrial and power system) 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Elevator constructors and mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Floor covering installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Gasfitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Glaziers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 3 4 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 3 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
Labour Market Rankings for Ontario Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics 2 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 1 Insulators 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and fitters 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Painters and decorators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Plumbers 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Residential home builders and renovators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Roofers and shinglers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Sheet metal workers 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 3 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 2
Tilesetters 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 Trades helpers and labourers 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 Truck drivers 3 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Welders and related machine operators 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
GTA scenario, 2012–2020 § Employment gains in the GTA lead all regions.
§ GTA dominates provincial growth, adding 30,000 construction jobs – 70 percent of all new construction employment in Ontario. • Non-residential employment rises by 24,000.
• Residential employment rises by 6,000. § Employment requirements are driven by:
• large Industrial and electrical utility projects, including nuclear
• steady rise in commercial and institutional-related building, including the Pan American games, public transportation infrastructure and health services-related projects
Construction Labour Requirements – Greater Toronto Area
Construction Employment in the Greater Toronto Area
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Num
ber
of w
orke
rs
Non-Residential Residential Total
Scenario History
Residential Construction Investment and Employment Index for the
Greater Toronto Area
80
100
120
140
160
180
200 20
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
Residential renovation and maintenance Residential employment New residential investment
History Scenario
Residential Construction Employment Index for Selected Trades
in the Greater Toronto Area
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150 20
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
Carpenters Plasterers, drywall installers Residential home builders and renovators Trades helpers
Scenario History
Non-residential Construction Investment and Employment Index
for the Greater Toronto Area
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240 20
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
Engineering investment Industrial, commercial and institutional construction investment Non-residential employment
Scenario History
Non-residential Construction Employment Index for Selected Trades
in the Greater Toronto Area
80
130
180
230
280
330 20
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
Boilermakers Construction millwrights Electricians Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers
Scenario History
Non-residential Construction Employment Index for Selected Trades
in the Greater Toronto Area
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160 20
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
Heavy equipment operators Concrete finishers Trades helpers Truck drivers
Scenario History
The Available Workforce – Greater Toronto Area
Supply-side adjustments § Supply side, 2012 to 2020:
• labour force requirements rise by 32,000 in response to expansion demand
• estimated retirements total 31,000 workers
• expansion plus replacement demand is estimated at 63,000 workers
• total demand requirements are expected to be partially offset by an estimated 25,000 first-time new entrants into the construction workforce (comprises local residents aged 30 and younger)
• industry will need to attract an additional 38,000 workers as net in-mobility rises to balance labour demand requirements
Change in Construction Labour Force in the Greater Toronto Area
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000 20
11
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Num
ber o
f wor
kers
Net in-mobility New entrants Retirements Total change in labour force
Total change in labour force N = New entrants N + Net in-‐mobility N
-‐ Re:rements N
Labour Market Rankings – Greater Toronto Area
Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Boilermakers 3 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 1 Bricklayers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Carpenters 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Concrete finishers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 Construction estimators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Construction managers 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 1 Contractors and supervisors 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 Crane operators 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 Drillers and blasters 2 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 2 1 Electricians (including industrial and power system) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 Elevator constructors and mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Floor covering installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Gasfitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Glaziers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2
Labour Market Rankings – Greater Toronto Area
Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 1 Insulators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and fitters 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 3
Painters and decorators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Plumbers 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Residential home builders and renovators 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 Roofers and shinglers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Sheet metal workers 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 1
Tilesetters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Trades helpers and labourers 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 Truck drivers 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 Welders and related machine operators 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2
Central Ontario scenario, 2012–2020 § Central Ontario is on a steady growth track that was interrupted by
the economic downturn. The construction scenario is characterized by the following: • a steady, but drawn out, recovery in residential construction
fuelled by growth in household formation • an increase in non-residential activity spurred by the coinciding
rise in population growth
• steady rise in overall construction employment, increasing by 18 percent over the scenario period
• balanced gains across the residential and non-residential sectors, which rise by 19 percent and 17 percent respectively
Construction Labour Requirements – Central Ontario
Construction Employment – Central Ontario
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Num
ber
of w
orke
rs
Non-residential Residential Total
History Scenario
Central Ontario scenario, 2012–2020 § Investment in new housing rises modestly through 2014 before
accelerating in the latter half of the scenario period.
• Residential employment rises by 7,300. • Sixty (60) percent of gains are concentrated in the final four
years of the scenario period. § Growth in industrial, commercial and institutional construction (ICI)
offsets declining engineering investment.
• Overall, non-residential construction employment grows by 7,500 over the scenario period.
• Employment gains are greatest for trades and occupations involved with ICI construction.
Construction Labour Requirements – Central Ontario
Residential Construction Investment and Employment Index for Central Ontario
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180 20
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
New residential investment Residential renovation and maintenance Residential employment
Scenario History
Non-residential Construction Investment and Employment Index
for Central Ontario
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160 20
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
Non-residential employment Industrial, commercial and institutional construction investment Engineering investment
Scenario History
Non-residential Construction Employment Index for Selected Trades
in Central Ontario
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160 20
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
Carpenters Construction managers
Plasterers, drywall installers Trades helpers
Scenario History
The Available Workforce – Central Ontario
Supply-side adjustments § Supply side, 2012 to 2020:
• labour force requirements rise by 14,000 in response to expansion demand
• estimated retirements total 20,000 workers
• expansion plus replacement demand is estimated at 34,000 workers
• total demand requirements are expected to be partially offset by an estimated 17,000 first-time new entrants into the construction workforce (comprises local residents aged 30 and younger)
• industry will need to attract an additional 17,000 workers as net in-mobility rises to balance labour demand requirements
Change in Construction Labour Force in Central Ontario
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000 20
11
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Num
ber
of w
orke
rs
Net in-mobility New entrants Retirements Total change in labour force
Total change in labour force N = New entrants N + Net in-‐mobility N
-‐ Re:rements N
Labour Market Rankings – Central Ontario
Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Boilermakers 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 Bricklayers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 Carpenters 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 Concrete finishers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 Construction estimators 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 Construction managers 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 3 3 3 3 2 4 3 3 3 2 Contractors and supervisors 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 Crane operators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Drillers and blasters 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 2
Electricians (including industrial and power system) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Elevator constructors and mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Floor covering installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Gasfitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Glaziers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Labour Market Rankings – Central Ontario
Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Insulators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and fitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Painters and decorators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Plumbers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 Residential home builders and renovators 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Roofers and shinglers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Sheet metal workers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 3 3 3 2 2 4 3 3 3 2
Tilesetters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Trades helpers and labourers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 Truck drivers 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Welders and related machine operators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3
Eastern Ontario scenario, 2012–2020 § Dragged down by a decline in residential activity, Eastern Ontario
is the weakest of the regions.
• Eastern Ontario faired best over recent history, not suffering a decline through the 2009 recession.
• An extended residential down cycle beginning in 2013 results in an erosion of residential employment for six consecutive years.
o Employment does not begin to recover until 2018. • Non-residential activity is sustained near current levels over
the scenario period buoyed by steady commercial and institutional construction and ongoing maintenance.
Construction Labour Requirements – Eastern Ontario
Construction Employment in Eastern Ontario
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Num
ber
of w
orke
rs
Non-residential Residential Total
History Scenario
Eastern Ontario scenario, 2012–2020 § Residential employment declines by 3,000 (14 percent) over the
scenario period.
• Trades and occupations involved in new residential construction incur bigger employment losses relative to those involved in renovation and maintenance work.
§ Non-residential employment rises by 1,000 (4 percent) over the same period.
§ A net decline in overall employment of 2,000 leaves 2020 employment down about 5 percent when compared to the 2011 level.
Construction Labour Requirements in Eastern Ontario
Residential Construction Investment and Employment Index
for Eastern Ontario
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130 20
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
New residential investment Residential renovation and maintenance Residential employment
Scenario History
Residential Construction Employment Index for Selected Trades
in Eastern Ontario
60
70
80
90
100
110
120 20
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
Carpenters Plasterers, drywall installers Residential home builders and renovators Trades helpers
Scenario History
Non-Residential Construction Investment and Employment Index
for Eastern Ontario
80
90
100
110
120
130
140 20
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
Industrial, commercial and institutional construction investment Engineering investment Non-residential employment
Scenario History
The Available Workforce – Eastern Ontario
Supply-side adjustments § Supply side, 2012 to 2020:
• labour force requirements decrease by 2,650 in response to a decline in residential construction activity
• estimated retirements total 9,500 workers
• replacement demand less the decline in the labour force leaves an estimated 6,900 jobs
• total demand requirements will be offset by the estimated 7,000 first-time new entrants expected to enter the construction workforce (comprises local residents aged 30 and younger)
Change in Construction Labour Force in Eastern Ontario
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Num
ber
of w
orke
rs
New in-mobility New entrants Retirements Total change in labour force
Total change in labour force N = New entrants N + Net in-‐mobility N
-‐ Re:rements N
Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Bricklayers 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
Carpenters 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3
Concrete finishers 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3
Construction estimators 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3
Construction managers 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 4
Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 1 3 5 3 3 3 3 2 3 3
Contractors and supervisors 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Crane operators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Electricians (including industrial and power system) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Elevator constructors and mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Floor covering installers 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 3
Gasfitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Glaziers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Labour Market Rankings – Eastern Ontario
Labour Market Rankings – Eastern Ontario
Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Insulators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and fitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Painters and decorators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3
Plumbers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Residential home builders and renovators 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 Roofers and shinglers 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Sheet metal workers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 2 2 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Tilesetters 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 Trades helpers and labourers 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 Truck drivers 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Welders and related machine operators 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Southwestern Ontario scenario, 2012–2020 § The Southwestern region suffered the steepest economic decline
through the 2008–2009 recession.
§ Major utilities and civil infrastructure-related projects have been the primary drivers of a modest recovery in construction employment.
§ The start of a new housing cycle in 2012 contributes to the recovery in overall construction employment.
§ Overall, construction employment rises 21 percent to peak levels in 2017 before retreating to just shy of 2007 pre-recessionary levels by the end of the scenario period.
Construction Labour Requirements – Southwest Ontario
Construction Employment in Southwest Ontario
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Num
ber
of w
orke
rs
Non-Residential Residential Total
History Scenario
Southwest Ontario scenario, 2012–2020 § The current level of construction activity is sustained by major non-
residential infrastructure, highway, bridge, electrical utility and civil engineering projects. Many of these projects wind down in 2013.
§ A second wave of major engineering and heavy construction projects starts in 2015, coinciding with peak demands related to new housing activity.
§ The local construction workforce may not be able to meet the coinciding residential and non-residential demands in 2015.
Construction Labour Requirements – Southwest Ontario
Residential Construction Investment and Employment Index
for Southwest Ontario
80
130
180
230
280
330 20
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
New residential investment Residential renovation and maintenance Residential employment
Scenario History
Non-residential Construction Investment and Employment Index
for Southwest Ontario
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220 20
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
Industrial, commercial and institutional investment Engineering investment Non-residential employment
Scenario History
Non-residential Construction Employment Index for Selected Trades
in Southwest Ontario
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160 20
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
Concrete finishers Heavy equipment operators Trades helpers Truck drivers
Scenario History
The Available Workforce – Southwest Ontario
Supply-side adjustments § Supply side, 2012 to 2020:
• labour force requirements rise by 3,200 in response to expansion demand
• estimated retirements total 8,200 workers
• expansion plus replacement demand is estimated at 11,400 workers
• total demand requirements are expected to be partially offset by an estimated 6,600 first-time new entrants into the construction workforce (comprises local residents aged 30 and younger)
• industry will need to attract an additional 4,800 workers as net in-mobility rises to balance labour demand requirements
Change in Construction Labour Force in Southwest Ontario
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Num
ber
of w
orke
rs
Net in-mobility New entrants Retirements Total change in labour force
Total change in labour force N = New entrants N + Net in-‐mobility N
-‐ Re:rements N
Labour Market Rankings – Southwest Ontario
Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Boilermakers 2 2 2 3 5 3 1 1 2 3 Bricklayers 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 Carpenters 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 Concrete finishers 3 3 3 3 5 4 3 2 3 3 Construction estimators 2 4 2 2 5 4 4 2 3 2 Construction managers 3 4 3 3 5 5 4 3 3 2
Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 1 1 3 5 5 3 1 2 3 3
Contractors and supervisors 2 4 2 2 5 4 4 2 3 3 Crane operators 3 5 2 2 5 4 3 2 3 3 Drillers and blasters 3 4 1 1 5 4 3 1 2 2 Electricians (including industrial and power system) 2 2 3 4 5 3 2 3 3 3 Elevator constructors and mechanics 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 Floor covering installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Gasfitters 2 2 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 Glaziers 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 4 5 1 1 5 4 3 1 2 2 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 3 4 1 1 5 4 3 1 2 3
Labour Market Rankings – Southwest Ontario
Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics 2 1 4 5 5 2 1 1 3 3 Insulators 2 2 3 4 5 3 3 2 3 3 Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and fitters 2 3 2 2 5 4 3 2 3 3
Painters and decorators 3 4 3 2 4 4 3 3 3 3 Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 2
Plumbers 2 2 3 4 5 4 3 3 3 3 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 Residential home builders and renovators 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 Roofers and shinglers 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Sheet metal workers 2 2 3 4 5 3 2 3 3 3 Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 2 1 2 3 5 3 2 2 3 3
Tilesetters 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 Trades helpers and labourers 3 4 3 3 5 4 4 3 4 3 Truck drivers 3 5 1 2 5 4 3 1 3 3 Welders and related machine operators 3 5 1 2 5 4 3 1 3 3
Northern Ontario scenario, 2012–2020 § Northern Ontario is a small and remote market driven by big non-
residential projects with labour requirements that exceed the local workforce. • Resource and other engineering projects drive employment to
peak levels by 2013. • Residential activity follows non-residential construction.
Related employment gains peak in 2015.
• Most trades experience tight labour conditions through 2013. • The start-up of known infrastructure, mining and resource
projects related to the Ring of Fire area are concentrated from 2010 to 2012 and scheduled for completion by 2016.
Construction Labour Requirements – Northern Ontario
Construction Employment in Northern Ontario
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Num
ber
of w
orke
rs
Non-residential Residential Total
History Scenario
Residential Construction Investment and Employment Index
for Northern Ontario
60
110
160
210
260
310 20
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
New residential investment Residential renovation and maintenance Residential employment
Scenario History
Non-residential Construction Investment and Employment Index
for Northern Ontario
80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Inde
x 20
09 =
100
Industrial, commercial and institutional investment Engineering investment Non-residential employment
Scenario History
The Available Workforce – Northern Ontario
Supply-side adjustments § Supply side, 2012 to 2020:
• labour force declines by 3,100 workers (in response to the anticipated decline in expansion demand after the 2013 peak, as some projects begin to wind down)
• estimated retirements total 7,600
• estimated first-time new entrants into the construction workforce total 4,900 (comprises local residents aged 30 and younger)
• new entrants offset the demand requirements across the entire scenario; however, the aggregate conceals the following:
o 11,000 workers from outside the local construction market will be required in the first three years of the scenario period
o these workers are expected to leave as the known projects wind down
Change in Construction Labour Force in Northern Ontario
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Num
ber
of w
orke
rs
Net in-mobility New entrants Retirements Total change in labour force
Total change in labour force N = New entrants N + Net in-‐mobility N
-‐ Re:rements N
Labour Market Rankings – Northern Ontario
Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bricklayers 4 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2
Carpenters 4 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2
Concrete finishers 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3
Construction estimators 4 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2
Construction managers 3 5 5 5 4 2 1 1 1 1
Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 4 5 5 3 1 1 1 2 3 3
Contractors and supervisors 4 5 5 3 1 1 2 2 3 3
Crane operators 4 5 5 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 Electricians (including industrial and power system) 4 5 5 2 1 1 1 3 3 3
Floor covering installers 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 3
Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 4 5 5 2 1 1 2 3 3 3
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 4 5 5 3 1 1 2 3 3 3
Insulators 4 5 5 3 1 1 1 3 3 3
Labour Market Rankings – Northern Ontario
Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and fitters 4 5 5 3 1 1 2 3 3 3
Painters and decorators 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2
Plumbers 4 5 5 2 1 1 1 2 3 3
Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 4 5 5 4 2 1 3 3 3 3 Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2
Residential home builders and renovators 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2
Roofers and shinglers 3 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3
Sheet metal workers 4 5 5 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 5 5 5 2 1 1 1 3 3 3
Trades helpers and labourers 4 5 5 4 3 1 2 2 2 2
Truck drivers 4 5 5 2 1 1 1 3 3 3
Welders and related machine operators 4 5 5 2 1 1 1 3 3 3
§ Rankings in Ontario and other markets suggest the potential for mobility across: • sectors • industries • regions
By Sector § Weakness in residential markets suggest that some trades might
move to the non-residential sector.
Labour Market Rankings and Mobility
Labour Market Rankings and Mobility
Potential for mobility by region § Utility, mining and other resource projects are planned for several
regions and could potentially draw key trades out of Ontario to (for example): • Newfoundland and Labrador: 2012–2014
• Saskatchewan: 2012–2013 • Manitoba: 2012–2015
• Alberta: 2012 and 2015–2018
Labour Market Hot Spots
§ The 2012 Construction Looking Forward scenario for Ontario anticipates strong gains in both expansion and replacement demands.
§ Construction labour markets in Ontario need to be assessed by region and occupation.
§ Non-residential construction leads the recovery and expansion, with employment gains concentrated in the GTA.
§ Requirements are shifting to large mining, utility and transportation projects.
§ Labour markets tend to be tight and unemployment low due to demographics. This requires some in-mobility in all regions to meet construction requirements.
§ Industry attention and investment in training, promotion and retention is essential.
Conclusions
Our Thanks To. . . The production of Construction Looking Forward 2012−2020 would not have been possible without the valuable input from the following organizations: § Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation § Christian Labour Association of Canada § Construction Employers Coordinating Council of Ontario § Construction Labour Relations Association of Ontario § Council of Ontario Construction Associations § Electrical Power Systems Construction Association § General Presidents’ Maintenance Committee for Canada § Infrastructure Ontario § Labourers’ International Union of North America § Merit OpenShop Contractors Association of Ontario § Metrolinx § Ontario Construction Secretariat § Ontario Home Builders’ Association § Ontario Pipe Trades Council § Ontario Power Generation § Ontario Provincial Building Trades Council § Ontario Sheet Metal Contractors Association § Ontario Road Builders’ Association § Progressive Contractors Association of Canada § RESCON § Service Canada § Toronto Construction Association
About the CSC
The Construction Sector Council (CSC) is a national industry-led organization committed to the development of a highly skilled workforce that will support the future needs of Canada’s construction industry. This report is part of the CSC’s Labour Market Information Program. It is available in both official languages and can be obtained electronically at www.constructionforecasts.ca and www.csc-ca.org. Timely construction forecast data is also available online at www.constructionforecasts.ca. Create customized reports on a broad range of selected categories within sector, trade or province covering up to 10 years.
For more information contact:
Construction Sector Council
Phone: 613-569-5552 Fax: 613-569-1220
March 2012