Summary

�Tuscany is an extreme-ly rural area, with alandscape that hashigh economic valuefor culture, heritage,agriculture andtourism.

�Climate hazards suchas severe floods andheat waves have affect-ed the region in recentyears.

�The rural economy is

heavily dependent onagriculture, a sectorthat is particularly sen-sitive to climatechange.

�Key research issuesinclude the impact ofclimate change on agri-culture, forest fires, andtourism; adaptationstrategies for agricul-ture and naturalecosystems; and the roleof agriculture andforestry in climatechange mitigation.

1. Physical and socio-economic characteristics

Geography:Tuscany (22,990 km2) isthe widest administrativeregion in central Italy andis located between 9° and12° East and 42° and 44°North (Figure 1). The ge-ological structure is rep-resented by the DominioUmbro-Marchigiano (fly-sch sand-marl stone) andthe Dominio Toscano.The latter is a two-layer

BRIEFING NOTES

ON THE CIRCE RURAL CASE STUDIES: TUSCANY

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Figure 1:Location map

for Tuscany (modified from

http://www.roadtoitaly.com/info/italy_

tuscany_map.htmaccessed 04-01-08)

and only one-tenth byplains and valleys. Thecomplex orographicstructure influences theclimate of Tuscany thatranges from typicallyMediterranean to tem-perate warm or cool de-pending on altitude, lati-tude and distance fromthe sea. Almost 96% ofthe territory is rural withwoodlands covering 50%of the region (Figure 2).The land use is predomi-nantly agricultural wherethe land is flat and mixedagricultural and forestryin the hilly and mountainareas. Tuscany has a pop-ulation of 3,566,071 in-habitants (6.2% of theItalian population), pre-dominantly located in

flat areas (361 inhabi-tants km-2), whilst in hillyand mountainous areasthe population density isrespectively, 152 and 87inhabitants km-2. Tuscanyhas a high archaeological,historical, cultural her-itage value and containssix international UN-ESCO sites (Patrimony ofHumanity).

Climate:The annual average tem-perature ranges from12°C in the northernmountainous region, to15°C in the southerncoastal region. The cold-est month is January,whilst the warmest areJuly and August. Annualrainfall ranges from 600

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metamorphic series; thelower-layer comprisessandstone, limestone,dolomite and Triassic tolate Palaeozoic rock, theupper-layer comprisesflysch, claystone, marl,limestone and dolomite.From an environmentalpoint of view, Tuscany ispeculiar for its extremelyheterogeneous morpho-logical and climatolgicialfeatures. The topographyranges from flat areasalong the coastline andprincipal river valleys, tohilly and mountainouszones towards theApennines chain.Approximately two-thirds of the region iscovered by hilly areas,one-fifth by mountains

Figure 2:Land use in Tuscany

to 2400 mm. The prevail-ing wind direction isfrom the west / north-west. In the past fewyears, the region has ex-perienced several ex-treme climate events. Inparticular, extreme floodevents in Versilia (1996),Elba Island (2002) andCarrara province (2003)and heat waves in June2002 (maximum temper-ature > 34°C for nineconsecutive days) andMay 2003 (maximumtemperature > 30°C forfive consecutive days) inFlorence.

Economy:In Italy the estimatedGDP (PPP) per capitawas US $30.2 thousandin 2006. The GDP ofTuscany represents 6.8 %of the national GDP.Relative to 2005, the re-gional GDP of the agri-cultural sector increasedby 1.7 %, and morespecifically, the agro-food and agro-tourismsectors increased by4.8% and 2.7 % respec-tively. In addition, ex-ports for the whole agri-cultural sector rose by7.3%, while the contribu-tion from the agro-foodindustry rose by 11.8%.The main crops in

Tuscany are:

�grapevine (63,460 ha)

�olive (91,500 ha)

�durum wheat (884,716ha)

�bread wheat (2,929,440ha)

�maize (1,665,082 ha)

�sunflower (521,779 ha)

The total value of agri-cultural production wasestimated to be €2,367million in 2006, of whichforestry contributed €49million and fisheries €74million.

2. Justification for choosing this casestudy region

Vulnerability to climatechange:Rural areas of Tuscanyare characterised by agri-cultural and tourist ac-tivities that may be veryvulnerable to climatechange. In particular,grapevine and olive aretwo of the main agricul-tural crops in Tuscany.The former is very im-portant for the economic

role that wine producersplay at national and in-ternational levels; whilstthe latter is importantnot only for the incomethat it generates but alsofor its contribution tolandscape. Both cropsare perennial, so the se-lection of the most ap-propriate crop manage-ment techniques is fun-damental and may beconsiderably affected bychanges in climate. Ruraltourism has increasedexponentially over thelast 15 years in Tuscany,so that now it representsthe main income formany farmers. The ex-pected changes in tem-perature and precipita-tion may have negativeeffects such as increasingmanagement costs (wa-ter supply, electricity forair conditioning, etc.)and reducing the pro-duction of traditional lo-cal crops and livestock.

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Access to stakeholders, in-cluding decision and pol-icy makersContacts have been es-tablished with a varietyof local stakeholders, in-cluding: FarmerConsortia, agencies anddepartments of the localgovernment of Tuscany(see Section 5).

Brief summary of previ-ous / ongoing work in thisregionSeveral previous EU-funded projects haveconducted regional scaleanalyses for agriculturalcrops and forestry.Recently, a fellowshipwas funded by theAgency for theDevelopment ofAgriculture (ARSIA) tostudy the impact of cli-

mate change ongrapevine, and a regionalprogramme on the im-pact of climate on agri-culture and forestry waslaunched in 2007. The lo-cal government inTuscany is actively con-sidering the role of cli-mate change in the plan-ning of different eco-nomic sectors. For exam-ple, the Observatory ofthe Kyoto Protocol hasjust been established toquantify differentsources or sinks of green-house gases.

3. Key research issues

�Impacts of climatechange on crop pro-duction, forest fire risk,etc.

�Evaluation of possibleadaptation strategiesto overcome the nega-tive impacts of climatechange on agriculturaland natural ecosys-tems

�Role of agriculture andforestry in the mitiga-tion of climate change(e.g., as carbon sinks)

�Rural tourism as a

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Availability of appropri-ate dataComplete datasets havebeen collected as part ofprevious EU-fundedprojects, CLAIRE, CLI-VARA, MICE. In particu-lar, the following data areavailable in the FacoltàAgraria database(University of Florence):climate, geo-morpholo-gy, land use and vegeta-tion cover, forest fire,agricultural crops (seeSection 6). Moreover, intwo other ongoing EU-Projects (AG2020 andPICCMAT) research ac-tivities are focusing onTuscany as a case-studyarea, and informationcollected during thesetwo projects will avail-able for the CIRCE ruralcase study.

main driving force ins o c i o - e c o n o m i cchange in the agricul-tural sector

4. Key areas of integration

Key links will be estab-lished with other CIRCEresearch lines, includingthe terrestrial ecosystemsof the Mediterranean,and relevant societal dy-namics. Output fromthese research lines fits inwell with the Tuscanycase study. Work carriedout in this case study willcontribute to the devel-opment of new environ-mental policies for theTuscany region and willbe used to adjust agro-nomic and cultural man-agement strategies forfarmers.

5. Regional stakeholders, policymakers, institutions

�Farmer Consortia andwine producers (e.g.,Chianti ClassicoConsortia, Frescobaldi,Antinori and Folonariwine producers)

�Agency for theDevelopment ofAgriculture (ARSIA)

�Local governmentdepartments (Forestry,Agriculture, Tourism,Environment, Energy,Health, etc.)

�Rural Communities.

6. Data availability

�Climate data:• 73 stations (covering

the period 1951-1997;source: IstititutoIdrografico; parame-ters: daily maximumtemperature, mini-mum temperature,precipitation).• 51 stations (coveringthe period 1987-2000;source: ARSIA; param-eters: daily maximumtemperature, mini-mum temperature,precipitation, windspeed and direction,air humidity, solar ra-diation).

�Typography:• A digital elevationmodel (75 x 75 m) toprovide spatially grid-ded data (2.5 x 2.5km) on longitude, lat-itude, altitude, dis-tance from the sea,etc. (for downscalingpurposes).

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�Land use andVegetation databases: • The Corine LandCover database isavailable for determin-ing land use.• A vegetation databaseLa vegetazione forestaleArrigoni, 1998 is avail-able for determiningcharacteristics of thenatural vegetation.

�Forest fire:• Fire data records(cover the period 1984to 2002; source: local /regional government;data available: dateand hour of forest firestarting, geographicalcoordinates, morpho-logical characteristicsof the burned area (as-pect, slope, etc.), causeof fire, area burn, vege-tation status, access re-strictions).

�Agricultural crops: • Statistical data isavailable at the provin-cial level for: yield, cul-tivated area, and pro-duction.• Experimental data isavailable at the locallevel for: phenology,biomass production,pest and disease.

Other datasets on rural

Further reading�Arrigoni, P.V., M. Raffaelli, M. Rizzotto, F. Selvi, D. Vicini,

L. Lombardi, B. Foggi, C. Melillo, R.Benesperi, G. Ferretti, S. Benucci, S. Turrini, P.L. di Tommaso, M. Signorini, E. Bargelli, U. Miniati, C. Farioli, V. de Dominicis, S. Casini, A. Chiarucci, P.E. Tomei, M. Ansaldi, S. Maccioni, E. Guazzi, L. Zocco Pisana, A. Cenerini, L. Dell’Olmo, E. Menicagli, (1998) La vegetazione forestale. Serie Boschi e Macchie diToscana. Regione Toscana, Giunta regionale, 215 pp.�Bindi M., Fibbi L., Maselli F., Miglietta F. 2000.

Modelling climate change impacts on grapevine inTuscany, In, Downing TE, Harrison PA, Butterfield REand Lonsdale KG (Eds.), Climate Change, ClimaticVariability and Agriculture in Europe. An IntegratedAssessment, Research Report No. 21, Brussels, Belgium:Commission of the European Union, Contract ENV4-CT95-0154, pp. 191-216.�Moriondo M., Good P., Durao R., Bindi M.,

Giannakopoulos C., Corte Real J. 2006 Potential impactof climate change on forest fire risk in Mediterraneanarea. Climate Research 31:85-95.�Moriondo M., Bindi M. 2006. Comparison of tempera-

tures simulated by GCMs, RCMs and statistical down-scaling: potential application in studies of future cropdevelopment. Climate Research, 30: 149-160.�Olesen J.E. and Bindi M. 2004. Agricultural impacts and

adaptations to climate change in Europe. Farm PolicyJournal, 1: 36-46.�Portoghese, I., Uricchio, V.F., and Vurro, M. 2005. A GIS

tool for hydrogeological water balance evaluation on aregional scale in semi-arid environments. Computer and Geosciences, 31(1): 15-27.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2004.09.001�Steinberger, E. H. and Gazit-Yaari, N. 1996. Recent

changes in the spatial distribution of annual precipita-tion in Israel. Journal of Climate, 9(12): 3328-3336. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<3328:RCITSD>2.0.CO;2

activities are also avail-able, but are not yet in-cluded in the digitaldatabase.

Acknowledgements

CIRCE (Climate Changeand Impact Research:the MediterraneanEnvironment) is fundedby the Commission ofthe European Union(Contract No 036961GOCE) http://www.cir-ceproject.eu/). Thisbriefing note forms partof the CIRCE deliverableD11.4.1.

�Final version, January 2008

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Links�Kyoto Observatory- http://www.osservatoriokyoto.it/�Tuscany region information (in Italian)-

http://www.regione.toscana.it/prehome_1024.htm�Agency for the Development of Agriculture –

http://www.arsia.toscana.it/�Marchesi de’ Frescobaldi wine producer (in Italian /

German)- http://www.frescobaldi.it/�Marchese Antinori wine producer-

http://www.antinori.it/�EU Project PICCMAT: Agriculture and Climate Change:

mitigation, adaptation, policy changes http://www.cli-matechangeintelligence.baastel.be/piccmat/index.php�EU Project AG2020: Foresight Analysis for World

Agricultural Markets (2020)http://www.risoe.dk/Research/sustainable_energy/ener-gy_systems/projects/AG2020.aspx

Author�Marco Bindi, Università degli Studi di Firenze, Facoltà

Agraria, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Firenze Italy.Email: marco.bindi@unifi.it

Editors�Maureen Agnew (m.agnew@uea.ac.uk)

and Clare Goodess (c.goodess@uea.ac.uk), Climatic Research Unit, School of EnvironmentalSciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.