noaa operational data assimilation and modeling
DESCRIPTION
Global Observing System Computers (WCOSS, AWIPS2) Data Assimilation & Modeling. NOAA Operational Data Assimilation and Modeling. Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is based on numerical prediction . - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
AMS 23 July 2013
1. Global Observing System2. Computers (WCOSS, AWIPS2)3. Data Assimilation & Modeling
Three Major Components of the Numerical
Prediction Enterprise….
Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is
based on numerical prediction
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NOAA Operational Data Assimilation and Modeling
NOAA Science Serving Society….
AMS 23 July 2013
NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission
– Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAARequired for agency to meet service-based metrics
– National Weather Service GPRA* Metrics
(* Government Performance & Results Act)Hurricane Track and Intensity Winter Storm WarningPrecipitation Threat Flood WarningMarine Wind Speed and Wave Height
– Operational numerical guidance:Foundational tools used by Government, public and private
industry to improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive US economic growth
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Lead Time and
Accuracy!
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Regional Hurricane
GFDLWRF-NMM
Air Quality
WRF: ARW, NMMNMMB
Dispersion
HYSPLIT
Climate ForecastSystem (CFS)
Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast
NOAA’s OperationalNumerical Guidance Suite
GFS MOM4NOAH Sea Ice
North American Ensemble Forecast System
GEFS, Canadian Global Model CMAQ
Regional NAMWRF NMMB 3D
-VAR
DA
Regional Bays• Great Lakes• N. Gulf of Mexico• Columbia R. Bays• Chesapeake• Tampa • Delaware
SpaceWeather
ENLIL3
Global and North American Land Surface Data
Assimilation SystemsNOAH Land Surface Model
Global Spectral3D-E
n-Va
rDA
Global Forecast System (GFS)
3D-V
ARDA
3D-V
ARDA
WRF ARW Rapid Refresh
3D-V
ARDA
WavesWaveWatch III
Ocean HYCOM
Ecosystem Sea Nettles
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Num
ber o
f Nod
es
High Water Mark 2010
24-h Snapshot 20 August 2012
Time of Day (UTC)
00 06 12 18 00
Numerical Guidance Suite Execution on the Operational NOAA Supercomputer
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CFS NAM GFSGEFS SREF
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AMSU-A & HIRS-3 data
T170L42 (70km) to T254L64 (55km)
T254L64 (55km) to T382 (38km) OSU 2-L LSM to 4-L NOHA LSM
Percentage of Good Forecasts GFS 5-Day 500mb AC > 0.9 v.s. Model Upgrades
T382L64 (38km) to T574L64 (27km)New shallow convection; updated SAS and PBL; positive-definite tracer transport
Flow-dependent error covariance; Variational QC
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Process to Transition Research intoNOAA Operational Model Suite
EMC Change Control Board• Scientific Integrity• Product Quality• EMC Mgmt Approval• ACCOUNTABILITY
Implementation Phase•SPA’s build NCO parallel from RFC’s
•30-day NCO parallelTest code stabilityTest dataflowProducts to NCEP Centers
and EMC code developers•NCEP Centers
Evaluate impactAssessments to NCEP OD
R&D and Pre-Implementation Phase
• 30-day NCO parallel stable• NCEP centers approve• ACCOUNTABILITY•Briefing to NCEP Director for final approval
•ACCOUNTABILITY
Implementation• Generate RFC’s• Submit RFC’s to NCO
SystematicTesting
2013 HWRF pre-implementation Test Plan
Not shown here: HSHAL (HBSE+Shallow Convection) – All 2010 ATL (Jet, 446), HBSE2 (Modified initialization): All 2011 ATL (Jet, 401), HPRD (Oper. HWRF w/new GFS): All 2011 ATL+EP (CCS, 664), H3GP: Stream 1.5, All 2011 ATL+EP (Jet, 800)
Unprecedented T&E of about 10 different configurations, more than 8000 simulations from 64 storms on Jet & CCS Support from HFIP PO for Jet usage, Support from NCO for “devmax” usage on CCS
EXP Description Comments Platform/# of casesPre-Baseline Experiments
TDRP FY12 HWRF + One-Way Hybrid GSI
Run in real-time during 2012 hurricane season (Stream 2.0 Demo). Also included real-time TDR data for 19 cases.
CCS, All 2012 ATL and EP821 cases
HDFL FY12 HWRF + Flux truncation into POM
DTC performed these tests to evaluate the impact of 25% reduction of heat, momentum and radiative fluxes in the operational coupled HWRF-POM
Jet, All 2012 ATL and EP821 cases
P160 FY12 HWRF + Initialization Changes
Improved size correction, modifications to filter domain and use GFS vortex when initial storm intensity less than 16 m/s
Jet, All 2012 ATL and EP821 cases
HNPI FY12 HWRF + New nest-parent interpolations
Revised nest-parent interpolations and improved treatment of variables at nest boundaries
Jet, All 2012 ATL and EP and 6 others from 2010 -11; 988 cases
HNTT HNPI+ New nest movement algorithm
Improved nest tracking based on membrane MSLP and Tim’s tracker. Choice of 8 storms that had difficulty tracking the nest properly
Jet, 8 Selected storms168 cases
HHPC FY12 HWRF + High Frequency Physics Calls
Increased Physics calling frequency from 180 sec. to 30 sec. Third nest size increased by about 20% from 5.5x5 to 7x6.5
Jet, A few selected storms from 2012; 100 cases
Baseline ExperimentH130 All modifications from
pre-baseline experiments 2013 HWRF baseline is based on positive outcome from the pre-baseline experiments described above. Run on three different platforms.
Jet/Zeus/WCOSS, All 2010-2011-2012 ATL and EP 1870 cases each
Physics UpgradesH131 (Final)
H130 + PBL changes HWRF PBL (GFS based scheme) is upgraded to include variable critical Richardson number for improved treatment of PBL height in all weather conditions.
Jet/Zeus/WCOSS, All 2011-2012 and August - October 2010 ATL and EP 1870 cases
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