noaa esrl gsd assimilation and modeling branch
DESCRIPTION
WoF / Hi-Impact Wx Workshop 1 April 2014 – Norman, OK. From RAPv3/HRRR-2014 to the NARRE/HRRRE era. NOAA ESRL GSD Assimilation and Modeling Branch . HRRR 1 Apr 2014 10 z +15h composite reflectivity ( valid 02z ). Stan Benjamin Curtis Alexander David Dowell Ming Hu - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
NOAA ESRL GSDAssimilation and Modeling Branch
WoF / Hi-Impact Wx Workshop1 April 2014 – Norman, OK
From RAPv3/HRRR-2014 to theNARRE/HRRRE era
Stan Benjamin Curtis Alexander David Dowell Ming HuSteve Weygandt John BrownTanya Smirnova Haidao Lin Georg Grell Eric JamesGeorg Grell Joe Olson
Steven Peckham Jaymes KenyonTracy Smith Brian Jamison NOAA NCEPGeoff Manikin Geoff DiMego EMC colleagues
HRRR 1 Apr 201410z +15h composite reflectivity (valid 02z)
Norman colleaguesNSSL, SPC, CAPS, U.Oklahoma
NCEP implementations ofRAP version 2 and HRRR
RAP
HRRR
RAP “Version 2” real-time at
GSD, final testing NCEP “Version 2” NCEP
implementationoccurred25 Feb 2014
HRRR
Real-time experimental at GSD, testing at NCEP Planned NCEP implementation
August 2014
3
2005-7Pre-radarassimilation
~20022009w/ radar refl assim (RUC/HRRR)
20133km radar DA - HRRR
Crossover in forecast skill between nowcasting/extrapolation vs. NWP
2014 HRRR
Rapid RefreshHourly Update Cycle
1-hrfcst
1-hrfcst
1-hrfcst
11 12 13Time (UTC)
AnalysisFields
3DVAR
Obs
3DVAR
Obs
Back-groundFields
Partial cycle atmospheric fields – introduce GFS information 2x/dayCycle hydrometeorsFully cycle all land-sfc fields(soil temp, moisture, snow)
Hourly Observations RAP 2014 N. Amer
Rawinsonde (T,V,RH) 120
Profiler – NOAA Network (V) Down to 9 (!)
Profiler – 915 MHz (V, Tv) 20-30
Radar – VAD (V) 125
Radar reflectivity - CONUS 1kmLightning (proxy reflectivity) NLDN (GLD360 later)
Aircraft (V,T) 2-15KAircraft - WVSS (RH) 0-800
Surface/METAR (T,Td,V,ps,cloud, vis, wx) 2200- 2500
Buoys/ships (V, ps) 200-400Mesonet Flagged for now
GOES AMVs (V) 2000- 4000
AMSU/HIRS/MHS radiances Used
GOES cloud-top press/temp low-level (<1200m AGL) bldg added
GPS – Precipitable water 260
WindSat scatterometer 2-10K
Observations Used
4
DataAssimilation
AssimilationType
PBL Pseudo Innovations
Soil Adjustment
Low-Cloud Building
Snow Cover Building
Lightning Obs(radar refl proxy)
RAPv1 GSI 3D-VAR No No No No No
RAPv2GSI EnKF-3DVAR
Hybrid + temp-dep radar-hydrometeor
Yes Yes Yes Yes + revised trimming Yes
Model Version Horiz/VertAdvection
ScalarAdvection
Upper-LevelDamping
SW RadiationUpdate Land Use Land-sfc
model PBL Micro-physics
RadiationLW/SW
RAPv1 WRF-ARW V3.2+ 5th/3rd Monotonic w-Rayleigh
0.02 30 min USGS RUC 6-lev MYJ Thompson
V3.2RRTM/
Goddard
RAPv2 WRF-ARWv3.4.1+ 5th/5th Positive-
Definitew-Rayleigh
0.2 10 min MODISFractional
RUC 9-lev
MYNN
Thompson v3.4.1
RRTM/ Goddard w/
snow fix
Major changes for RAPv2Assimilation – hybrid ensemble assimilation, soil/PBL/surface/cloud assimilationModel – - land-surface, PBL, cloud physics
RAPv2 enhancements over RAPv1
5
RAPv2 PBL moisture pseudo-obs
Improved PBL moisture structure, crucial for RAP / HRRR
MEM 21z 21 Dec 2013 Analyzed sounding
RAPv1
RAPv2RAPv1 RAPv2
Model-based sfcOA MLCAPE/CIN & EFF. SHEAR
Images courtesy Israel Jirak, Steven Weiss, Phillip Bothwell,
Andy Dean, Storm Prediction Center
Data Assimilation ModelGFS EnKF-3DVAR hybrid data assimilationPBL-based pseudo-innovationsSurface-obs-based soil moisture/temp adjustmentLow cloud building / othercloud enhancementsTemp-dependent radar hydrometeor buildingLightning data assimilationGSI trunk update
Physics changes MYJ MYNN v3.5.1-Joe Olson PBL scheme 9-layer RUC LSM (from 6-layer, Tanya Smirnova) MODIS land-use (fractional) Modified roughness length Revised Thompson cloud m-phys. Higher-order numerics introduced Positive definite scalar advection 5th-order vertical advection Update to WRFv3.4.1
RAP version 2 upgrades
7
RMSE Vertical Profiles -- 22 Nov – 22 Dec 2012
RAPv2 Hybrid RAPv1 No Hybrid (3D-VAR)
Wind
TempRHWind
03-hr Forecast
12-hr Forecast
RH Temp
RAPv2 Hybrid Data Assimilation
Improved upper-air environment 8
Soil Temperature Soil MoistureValid
20 UTC 03 June 2013
Cooling
Warming
RAPv2 Soil Adjustment
MoisteningDrying
Based upon surface temperature and dewpoint analysis increments – new option within GSI. Critical also for HRRR
9Improved soil, near-surface temperature, moisture
RAPv2 WITHlightning assim
RAPV1 No lightning assim
Rapid Refresh – 0h valid 02z 26 Jan 2012
RAP Lightning Assimilation
Improved convective coverage off the coast with lightning assimilation
ObservedReflectivity
NSSL Seminar Series 04 June 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10NCEP Production Suite Review 4-5 December 2012Rapid Refresh / HRRR 10NOAA/ESRL/GSD 18 Feb 2014 10RAPv2 for NWS Regions
Radar observed HRRR 12-h forecast
Composite Reflectivity (dBZ)
NOAA Next-Generation RAP / HRRR System Forecast of Mid-Atlantic Derecho – 29 June 2012
Valid 11PM EDT Real-time HRRR forecast
HRRR Experiment with 2011 RAP DA
Key 2012 DA improvements• PBL-pseudo-obs for moisture• Soil moisture/temp adjustment
3-km Interp
2013 HRRR Initialization from RAP
GSI Hybrid
Obs
GSI cld Anx
DigitalFilter
1 hr
fcst
CldObs
ReflObs18 hr fcst
GSI Hybrid
Obs
GSI cld Anx
DigitalFilter
1 hr
fcst
CldObs
ReflObs18 hr fcst
GSI Hybrid
Obs
GSI cld Anx
DigitalFilter
CldObs
ReflObs18 hr fcst
3 km HRRR
13z 14z 15z13 km RAP
Refl Obs
1 hr pre-fcst Obs
GSI cld Anx
GSI 3D-VAR CldO
bs
15 hr fcst
GFS
Ens GF
SEn
s GFS
Ens
HRRR 2h fcst~ +1:10 hr
1 hr fcst
Radar Obs05:00z 18 May
2013
0-hr fcst3-km radar
DA
0-hr fcstNO 3-km radar
DA
Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts
05z + 0 min
18th IOAS-AOLS / 4th R2O 4 February 2014HRRR Implementation 13
Radar Obs05:15z 18 May
2013
Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts
05z + 15 min
15-min fcst3-km radar
DA
15-min fcstNO 3-km radar
DA
18th IOAS-AOLS / 4th R2O 4 February 2014HRRR Implementation 14
Radar Obs05:30z 18 May
2013
Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts
05z + 30 min
30-min fcst3-km radar
DA
30-min fcstNO 3-km radar
DA
18th IOAS-AOLS / 4th R2O 4 February 2014HRRR Implementation 15
Radar Obs05:45z 18 May
2013
Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts
05z + 45 min
45-min fcst3-km radar
DA
45-min fcstNO 3-km radar
DA
18th IOAS-AOLS / 4th R2O 4 February 2014HRRR Implementation 16
Radar Obs06:00z 18 May
2013
Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts
05z + 1 hour
1-hr fcst3-km radar
DA
1-hr fcstNO 3-km radar
DA
18th IOAS-AOLS / 4th R2O 4 February 2014HRRR Implementation 17
18th IOAS-AOLS / 4th R2O 4 February 2014HRRR Implementation 18
2013 HRRR improvements over 2012 HRRR
2012 HRRR2013 HRRR
CSI vs. lead-time
25 dBZreflectivity40-km verif
Eastern USReal-time
1 June – 31 Augrespective years
NOT event matched, but long-term and
season match
Improvements from RAP DA (moisture pseudo-obs, soil-adjust, hybrid) and from HRRR 3-km radar DA
Model Data Assimilation
RAP-ESRL(13 km)
WRFv3.5.1+ incl. physics changesPhysics changes: Grell-Freitas convective scheme MYNN PBL scheme - Olson version RUC LSM update Thompson microphysics – v3.5.1 RRTMG radiation schemeShallow cumulus parm w/ rad feedMODIS veg fraction/leaf area index
Merge with GSI trunkIncrease ensemble weight in hybrid DA8m2m bkg for sfc Td assim
Radiance bias correctionNew sat assimilation (NOAA-19, METOP-B, GOES, direct readout – RARS)
HRRR (3 km)
WRFv3.5.1+ incl. physics changesPhysics changes: MYNN PBL scheme - Olson version RUC LSM update Thompson microphysics – v3.5.1 RRTMG radiation schemeNumerics changes: 6th order diffusion in flat terrain smooth terrain @lat BC
3-km hybrid ens/var assimilation (was var-only in 2013)8m2m bkg for sfc Td assimRadar LH – 4x less intense than 2013 (2x less intense than RAP but more local)
Changes with high/medium importance for overall forecast skill
Candidate RAPv3/HRRRv2 Changes
1200 UTC 19 May 2013
25 dBZ CSI3 km 25 dBZ CSI
20 km
25 dBZ CSI40 km
25 dBZ CSI80 km
HRRR using 2014 RAPv3 IC with ens=0.75 DA, new physics (not yet 2m qv DA)HRRR in 2013 real-time w/ RAPv2 IC
HRRR tests – 15-22 May 2013 -
Included new sensors/dataGOES sounding data from GOES-15amsua/mhs from noaa-19 and metop-b;
Included the RARS data (Just on Zeus now)Removed some high peaking channels to fit
the model top of RAP and removed the ozone channels
Implemented the enhanced bias correction scheme with cycling
Summary of radiance updates for RAP V3
Radiance channels used for RAP V3• AMSU-A (remove high-peaking channels)
• noaa_n15: channels 1-10, 15;• noaa_n18: channels 1-8, 10,15;• noaa_n19: channels 1-7, 9-10, 15;• metop-a: channels 1-6, 8-10,15;• metop-b: channels 1-10, 15;
• HIRS4 (remove high-peaking and ozone channels)• metop-a: channels: 4-8, 10-15;
• MHS • noaa_n18, noaa-19, metop-a, and metop-b: channels 1-5;
• GOES (remove high-peaking and ozone channels)• GOES-15 (sndD1,sndrD2,sndrD3,sndrD4): channels 3-8, 10-15.
Use of 2m qv background (instead of k=1 (~8m w/ σ=0.997))• New in RAPv3 – GSI mod• 2m dewpoint measurement is
at…. 2m• Moist bias introduced with use of
k=1 background for qv
• 8m qv usually drier than 2m qv
• Moisture bias much reduced in 1000-800 hPa in daytime – 00z verification
• Also evident at 12z• => improvement in convective
environment
RH (%) bias vs. raobs, 15-22 May 2013 6h forecasts - RAP experiments
RAPv2-fall ver
RAPv3RAPv3 w/ 2m qv DA
RAPv3 w/ 2m qv DA
Verif at 00z6h fcsts
Verif at 12z6h fcsts
ESRL – experimental version• RAPv1 – used in 2011
– Initialized 2011 HRRR– effective but too many storms
• RAPv2 – used in 2012-2013– Initialized 2012-2013 HRRR– Better surface DA, hybrid DA radar
• HRRR – 2012– Major improvement over 2011
(storm bias, coverage/accuracy)
• HRRR – 2013– 3km/15min radar assimilation– Initialized from RAPv2-2013– Available 45 min earlier, much
more accurate 0-15h storm forecasts, more reliable 2-computer
NWS-NCEP - operational
• Implemented 1 May 2012
• RAPv2 - implemented scheduled on 25 Feb 2014 running in NCEP/NCO testing now
• HRRR – Implementation scheduled for Aug 2014 HRRR testing on WCOSS with real-time end-to-end runs underway (Curtis, Ming heroics)
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesRAP/HRRR Implementation Map
ESRL – experimental version• RAPv3 – to be used in 2014
– Will initialize 2014 ESRL-HRRR(v2)– Improved PBL, convection, sfc assim
• RAPv4 – to be used in 2015– Will initialize 2015 ESRL-HRRR(v3) – Target: hourly RAP ensemble for
ensemble data assimilation
• HRRRv2 – 2014– Improved radar assimilation, surface
assimilation, PBL/cloud physics• HRRRv3 – 2015
– To be initialized from RAP ensemble data assimilation + improved 3km physics (incl. aerosol-aware microphysics from NCAR/Thompson)
NWS-NCEP - operational
• Implement early 2015
• Implement 2016
• Implement 2015
• Implement 2016
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesRAP/HRRR Implementation Map
NOTE: ~42h HRRR forecast run 1-2x daily to start by May 2014 for energy and severe wx forecasts – on DOE computer. (
26
NARRE/HRRRE Roadmap - Highlights – 2014-19 (for FAA Model Development & Enhancement Product Development Team)
2014 Implement HRRR (v1) at NCEP (convection, icing, terminal). • Develop RAPv3 and HRRRv2 toward 2015 implementations at NCEP.
• Extension of HCPF and NARRE/TL into improved aviation
probabilistic fields • Start on 3km-ensemble-DA on small domain retro test2015 Implement RAPv3 and HRRRv2 at NCEP. • Implement regional ensemble data assimilation into parallel
experimental RAP at ESRL into test version as part of continued NARRE development. Development of RAP and HRRR continues.
2016 Implement NAMRR at NCEP, using same single regional ensemble assimilation. • Implement regional ensemble assimilation to initialize
RAP/NAMRR.2018 Implementation for 6-member NARRE with ARW and NMMB members at NCEP for improved aviation probabilistic forecasts. 2019 Implementation of multi-member HRRRE with ARW and NMMB 3km-supercell-capable members at NCEP
RUC / RAP / HRRR growth in number ofmodel gridpoints* compared to Moore’s law*
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
Moore's law model GP's
*NOTE: other aspects of the model system (# variables, etc.) also increased, making this a conservative estimate of model memory growth*NOTE: Moore’s law baselined to 1994 RUC1
RUC1
RUC2RUC20
RUC13RAP13
HRRR
# m
odel
grid
poin
ts (
x 10
00)
Year
RUC / RAP / HRRR model growth rate similar to Moore’s Law
Moore’s Law(2x per 2 yrs)
(60)
(40)
(3)growth [dx (km)]
HRRR – 1800 x 1060
HRRR – 1800 x 1060 (=1.9M)
Initial HRRR-EnKF-DA test670x360 = 0.24M7.5x smaller than CONUS HRRR(aim for 10x smaller)
HRRR-ens-DA demo – some numbers – HPC requirements in 2013 cores
• 1,000 – current HRRR (CONUS fcst in 40-50 min)By 2017 (research), 2019-20 at NCEP?• 10,000 - HRRR-full-domain hourly EnKF – 80-mem• 10,000 – HRRRE with 10 members
HRRR EnKF DA demo + HRRRE – mini-10% NE domain• 1,000 – EnKF DA• 500 – 10-member HRRRE, run to 6h only
31
Directions for MDE for 2015-2025 to improve AHP forecasting & NAS efficiency
• Further improvement in data assimilation– Ensemble-based DA, later toward 4d-ens-var
• Improve cloud/hydrometeor assimilation use of radar, PBL, satellite observations
• Probabilistic AHP fcsts thru hourly updated ensembles– NARRE, HRRRE, improved global ensemble
• Update frequency– Needs to go to every 30 min by 2020, then to 15-min in early 2020s and
every 5-min by late 2020s– Use full NWP with high-frequency radar and satellite data– Coordination with NOAA Warn-On-Forecast plan (improved 1-2h
forecasts updated on 5-min basis with storm-scale ensemble data assimilation)
32
MDE directions – 2015-2015, continued (2)
• Resolution– 3km horizontal resolution may be sufficient (with higher-order numerics as used in the
current WRF-ARW dynamic core) until computer power allows resolution of 200-500m or less
– Vertical resolution must be increase to at least 75-100 levels to improve better forecasts of terminal conditions, convection (via improved boundary-layer development), icing (via improved vertical resolution of clouds).
– There will be a trade-off between horizontal/vertical resolution and ensemble size. If there is fairly little improvement in depiction of convective storms from 3km down to 0.5km, then additional computer power may first be applied to ensemble forecasting and ensemble data assimilation.
– 1km fixed nests around hubs may be appropriate.• Cloud microphysics
– Further improvements in cloud microphysics are essential, including aerosol-aware microphysics and higher-order moment or even bin microphysics.
• Fog – Again, increased vertical resolution in the lowest 200-400m and aerosol-aware
microphysics will lead to an improvement for these forecasts
33
MDE directions, continued (3)• Inline chemistry
– Should be used in all NCEP models– RAP-chem already running experimentally over N.America every 6h– Critical for improved visibility – near-terminal and slant visibility– Critical for cloud/hydrometeor effects
• Volcanic ash– Real-time forecasts of volcanic ash with an hourly updated model (like RAP) are now feasible. Inline
chemistry is available and is already running in an experimental real-time version of the RAP over North America. Real-time global eruption data is now available from the USAF and is being copied in real-time to NOAA/ESRL.
• Boundary-layer physics interaction with land-surface, radiation, cloud physics – An integrated unified approach to boundary-layer, sub-grid-scale mixing is needed and already an
area of initial research.• Output frequency
– Down to 15min for selected 2-d fields from HRRR, expect full-resolution 3-d output at 5-15min output frequency
• New emphasis on terminal weather– E.g., lake breeze at ORD– Wake mitigation
34
MDE directions, continued (4)• Contrail forecasting
– Will be improved significantly by aerosol-aware microphysics and inline chemistry
• Global Rapid Refresh– FIM model now produces improved wind forecasts over GFS at 12h and longer
durations– WRF/RAP physics can be included, 15-km in real-time
• Computing advances expected– GPU or MIC or other, 2-5x jump in CPU/$
• New observations expected– Radar – MPAR, integration of CASA, TDWR– Satellites – GOES-R and NPOESS– Regional aircraft observations?– Vast increase in obs from 20-300m – proprietary – tower, nacelle, sodar
Evolution of hourly updated NOAA modeling
Feb 2014 Rapid Refresh v2 – NCEP oper• PBL/soil/radar assimilation enhancements Improved surface forecasts,
convective environment fields• Hybrid ensemble-variational GSI assimilation• Model – improved cloud / PBL / LSM, numerics improvements, updated WRFJuly 2014 – HRRR (3km) - planned NCEP oper with 3km/15min radar refl. assimilation 2015 – RAPv3 / HRRRv2North American Rapid Refresh
Ensemble(NARRE) ~2017 • NMM, ARW cores
• Hourly updating with GSI-hybrid EnKF• Initially 6 members, 3 each core, physics
diversity (stochastic only or with RAP/NAM/NCAR suites)• Hourly forecasts to 24-h• NMMB (+ARW?) members to 84-h 4x/day
Rapid Refresh NARRE
2017 – Ensemble Rapid Refresh/NAM – NARRE (w/ hybrid 4d-ens/var DA)
2019? – Ensemble HRRR– HRRRE – (ultimately with hourly ~3km ensemble DA)
HRRR
NARRE / HRRRE at NCEP