noaa-epa’s national air quality forecast capability: progress and plans october 17, 2006
DESCRIPTION
NOAA-EPA’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Progress and Plans October 17, 2006 Paula M. Davidson 1 , Nelson Seaman 1 , Jeff McQueen 1 , Rohit Mathur 1,2 , Roland Draxler 1, Richard Wayland 2 1 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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NOAA-EPA’s National Air Quality NOAA-EPA’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability:Forecast Capability:
Progress and PlansProgress and Plans
October 17, 2006October 17, 2006
Paula M. DavidsonPaula M. Davidson11, Nelson Seaman, Nelson Seaman11, Jeff McQueen, Jeff McQueen11, Rohit , Rohit MathurMathur1,21,2, Roland Draxler, Roland Draxler1, 1, Richard WaylandRichard Wayland22
11National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)22US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
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OutlineOutline
• Overview of Current Capability
• Progress in 2006 toward expanded capabilities
• Looking ahead
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Model Components: Linked numerical Model Components: Linked numerical prediction systemprediction systemOperationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputerOperationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputer
NCEP mesoscale NWP: WRF-NMMNCEP mesoscale NWP: WRF-NMM
NOAA/EPA community multiscale model for AQ: CMAQNOAA/EPA community multiscale model for AQ: CMAQ
Observational Input: Observational Input:
NWS real-time weather observationsNWS real-time weather observations
EPA emissions inventoryEPA emissions inventory
National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityNational Air Quality Forecast Capability End-to-End Operational Capability End-to-End Operational Capability
AQI: Peak Jul 28AQI: Peak Jul 28
Gridded forecast guidance productsGridded forecast guidance productsOn NWS Telecommunications Gateway and EPA serversOn NWS Telecommunications Gateway and EPA servers
Updated 2x dailyUpdated 2x daily
Verification basisVerification basis
EPA/AIRNow compilation:EPA/AIRNow compilation:ground-level ozone observationsground-level ozone observations
Customer outreach/feedbackCustomer outreach/feedbackState&Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPAState&Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA
Public and Private Sector AQ constituentsPublic and Private Sector AQ constituents
EPA Monitoring NetworkEPA Monitoring Network
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Operational AQ forecast guidanceOperational AQ forecast guidancewww.weather.gov/aqwww.weather.gov/aq
Further informationFurther informationwww.nws.noaaa.gov/ost/air_qualitywww.nws.noaaa.gov/ost/air_quality
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Experimental Products: Experimental Products:
Coast-to-coast Ozone, Smoke Forecast GuidanceCoast-to-coast Ozone, Smoke Forecast Guidance
www.weather.gov/aq-exprwww.weather.gov/aq-expr
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166
142
268 grid cells
259gridcells
Northeast“1x” Domain
East “3x” Domain
Testing Domain: Summer 2006Testing Domain: Summer 2006
Experimental: CONUS “5X”
442 grid cells
265gridcells
IOC “1x”
EUS “3X”
Operational: EUS “3x”
CONUS “5x” Domain
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Testing Summary Testing Summary Summer, 2006Summer, 2006
Ozone: Experimental testing beginning June, 2006 over CONUSOzone: Experimental testing beginning June, 2006 over CONUS– New WRF-CMAQ linkage, improved vertical coupling with New WRF-CMAQ linkage, improved vertical coupling with σσ-P adopted in-P adopted in
CMAQ/WRF CMAQ/WRF
– Updates to emissions (esp mobile and EGU sources)Updates to emissions (esp mobile and EGU sources)
– ACM mixing in cloudsACM mixing in clouds
Smoke: Experimental testing beginning March, 2006Smoke: Experimental testing beginning March, 2006– Fire Locations and verification based on satellite observationsFire Locations and verification based on satellite observations
– Fire emissions estimates from USFS (BlueSky)Fire emissions estimates from USFS (BlueSky)
– HYSPLIT/NAM transportHYSPLIT/NAM transport
Aerosols: Developmental testing providing comprehensive Aerosols: Developmental testing providing comprehensive dataset for diagnostic evaluationsdataset for diagnostic evaluations
– CMAQ (aerosol option) CMAQ (aerosol option)
– Qualitative; underprediction consistent with missing source inputsQualitative; underprediction consistent with missing source inputs
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Preliminary Analysis of Ozone Predictions: Preliminary Analysis of Ozone Predictions: Summer, 2006Summer, 2006
Fraction Correct, 2006: 3X 8-hr avg 0.9960.9760.994 0.976 0.985
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
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5/1/2006 5/31/2006 6/30/2006 7/30/2006 8/29/2006 9/28/2006Day
Fraction Correct
Target
Monthly Cum
Fraction Correct, 2006: 5X/East 8-hr avg
0.9960.9910.996
0.980
0.987
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
5/1/2006 5/31/2006 6/30/2006 7/30/2006 8/29/2006 9/28/2006Day
Fraction Correct
Target
Monthly Cum
Fraction Correct, 2006: 5X 8-hr avg
0.992
0.986
0.975
0.994 0.975
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
5/1/2006 6/1/2006 7/2/2006 8/2/2006 9/2/2006 10/3/2006Day
Fraction Correct
Target
Monthly Cum
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Testing Challenges: Testing Challenges: Summer, 2006Summer, 20061. Comparison of Operational and Experimental testing:Before Isoprene correction for 5X
E US (3X) vs. CONUS (5X):After Isoprene correction for 5X
Ozone Episode in Eastern US: Ozone Episode in Eastern US: July 16-19, 2006July 16-19, 2006
July 17
July 16
July 20
July 18 July
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Experimental Testing Summary: OzoneExperimental Testing Summary: OzoneSummer, 2006Summer, 2006
Diagnosing and addressing issues not uncovered with Diagnosing and addressing issues not uncovered with retrospective testingretrospective testing • WRF implementation into NAM: June 20WRF implementation into NAM: June 20
Relative to Eta: Similar performance in Eastern US, but cooler, wetter in Western US Relative to Eta: Similar performance in Eastern US, but cooler, wetter in Western US Lower surface O3Lower surface O3
– WRF upgrade/correction: August 15WRF upgrade/correction: August 15
Increased mixing: more vertical mixing in stable PBL , horizontal mixing in complex Increased mixing: more vertical mixing in stable PBL , horizontal mixing in complex terrain (mountains and along coast)terrain (mountains and along coast)
• Correction impacts: localized; more diffuse O3 gradientsCorrection impacts: localized; more diffuse O3 gradients
• Operational (3X) ozone: WRF-Post Processor. Operational (3X) ozone: WRF-Post Processor.
T-Interpolation (vertical; in WRF-post) error T-Interpolation (vertical; in WRF-post) error Slightly higher ozone Slightly higher ozone
• Corrected July 28. Impact: slightly reduced surface O3Corrected July 28. Impact: slightly reduced surface O3
• Experimental (5X) ozone: PREMAQ/CMAQ corrections Experimental (5X) ozone: PREMAQ/CMAQ corrections
Experimental (5X) Ozone and Developmental Aerosols: Biogenic VOCs incorrectly Experimental (5X) Ozone and Developmental Aerosols: Biogenic VOCs incorrectly underestimated underestimated Much lower surface O3 Much lower surface O3
• Corrected August 5. Impact: Much increased surface O3Corrected August 5. Impact: Much increased surface O3
• (3X and 5X) PREMAQ/CMAQ corrections(3X and 5X) PREMAQ/CMAQ corrections
Some emissions components left from 2005; numerics: (arrays undefined, Jacobian error)Some emissions components left from 2005; numerics: (arrays undefined, Jacobian error)
• Corrected August 5; September 5. Minor (localized) impactsCorrected August 5; September 5. Minor (localized) impacts
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HYSPLIT
Analysis
Sample Smoke Evaluation - April 13, 2006 Sample Smoke Evaluation - April 13, 2006 NAM/HYSPLIT 1-d Forecast & NAM/HYSPLIT 1-d Forecast & HMS AnalysisHMS Analysis
12 -14 UTC
HYSPLIT
24-hr Forecast
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WRF-HYSPLIT 24-h Smoke Predictions:WRF-HYSPLIT 24-h Smoke Predictions:Preliminary Evaluation, 2006Preliminary Evaluation, 2006
14 September 2006 WRF-HYSPLIT 24h (blue)
vs HMS (orange)
Preliminary Verification statistics: FMS
Threshold: 1ug/m3 in Column
Initial target: 10%
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Preliminary Aerosol Predictions: Preliminary Aerosol Predictions: Summer, 2006Summer, 2006
July 25, 2006
5X Aerosol 06Z, Hit Accuracy: Daily Verification: 1-hr Avg Full 5X Domain
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
21-Jul 28-Jul 4-Aug 11-Aug 18-Aug 25-Aug 1-Sep 8-Sep 15-Sep 22-Sep 29-Sep 6-Oct
Fraction Correct
Target
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Testing Summary Testing Summary Summer, 2006Summer, 2006
Ozone: Extensive retrospective testing with developmental NAM-CMAQ Ozone: Extensive retrospective testing with developmental NAM-CMAQ system during Winter and Spring still left some surprises:system during Winter and Spring still left some surprises:
• Experimental (5X) ozone: Experimental (5X) ozone:
– Large under-predictions especially in the west; systematically lower ozone than operational Large under-predictions especially in the west; systematically lower ozone than operational (3) in East(3) in East
• Operational (3X) ozone:Operational (3X) ozone:
– Some over-predictions for cool, cloudy conditionsSome over-predictions for cool, cloudy conditions
Smoke: Experimental testing providing basis for systematic near-real Smoke: Experimental testing providing basis for systematic near-real time evaluations with satellite observations:time evaluations with satellite observations:
– Results promising for predicted smoke transport, compared to HMS smoke analyses Results promising for predicted smoke transport, compared to HMS smoke analyses (independent, analyst-prepared) (independent, analyst-prepared)
– Development of objective smoke analyses for near-real time verification nearly completeDevelopment of objective smoke analyses for near-real time verification nearly complete
Aerosols: Developmental testing providing comprehensive dataset for Aerosols: Developmental testing providing comprehensive dataset for diagnostic evaluations:diagnostic evaluations:
• Underprediction common; consistent with missing source inputsUnderprediction common; consistent with missing source inputs
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National AQF Capability:National AQF Capability:Looking aheadLooking ahead
Ozone forecast guidance produced operationally (WRF-Ozone forecast guidance produced operationally (WRF-CMAQ) over CONUS (near-term)CMAQ) over CONUS (near-term)
• Improving day-to-day performance, especially in the westImproving day-to-day performance, especially in the west
• Transitioning experimental products to operationsTransitioning experimental products to operations
Expanded products to be tested:Expanded products to be tested:
• Ozone: Ozone:
– Further development: to more closely couple AQ with WRF weather output; Further development: to more closely couple AQ with WRF weather output; examine impacts of vertical resolution, vertical mixing treatments, horizontal examine impacts of vertical resolution, vertical mixing treatments, horizontal boundary conditions…boundary conditions…
– Testing over all 50 statesTesting over all 50 states
• Particulate matter components:Particulate matter components:
– Smoke from large fires: objective verification baseline; transition to Smoke from large fires: objective verification baseline; transition to operationsoperations
– Aerosols predicted from anthropogenic source emissions in inventories: Aerosols predicted from anthropogenic source emissions in inventories: continued development/testing/analysiscontinued development/testing/analysis
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National Air Quality Forecast Capability:National Air Quality Forecast Capability:Phased GrowthPhased Growth
Early Implementations: 1-day forecast Early Implementations: 1-day forecast guidance for ozone guidance for ozone Developed and deployed initially for Developed and deployed initially for
Northeastern US, September 2004Northeastern US, September 2004
Expanded over Eastern US, Aug 2005Expanded over Eastern US, Aug 2005
Near-Term targets:Near-Term targets:
Implement ozone guidance over CONUS: Summer 2007Implement ozone guidance over CONUS: Summer 2007
Deploy Nationwide (AK & HI) target: by 2009Deploy Nationwide (AK & HI) target: by 2009
Longer range (within 10 years):Longer range (within 10 years):
Develop and implement capability to forecast particulate matter (PM) Develop and implement capability to forecast particulate matter (PM) – Particulate size Particulate size << 2.5 microns 2.5 microns
• Data assimilation for air qualityData assimilation for air quality
• Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hoursExtend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours
• Include broader range of significant pollutantsInclude broader range of significant pollutants
2005: O2005: O33
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AppendixAppendix
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National AQF Capability Status National AQF Capability Status October, 2006October, 2006
Ozone forecast guidance produced operationally (WRF-CMAQ):Ozone forecast guidance produced operationally (WRF-CMAQ):
• Eastern US. 2X daily, 12km grid resolution, hourly predictions, through Eastern US. 2X daily, 12km grid resolution, hourly predictions, through midnight next day. Ground-level ozone concentrationsmidnight next day. Ground-level ozone concentrations
– On NOAA/NWS servers: On NOAA/NWS servers: www.weather.gov/aqwww.weather.gov/aq
– On EPA’s AIRNow website, displayed as AQ Index valuesOn EPA’s AIRNow website, displayed as AQ Index values
– Eta was replaced in the NAM by WRF(NMM) in June, 2006 Eta was replaced in the NAM by WRF(NMM) in June, 2006
– Achieving performance targets for accuracy, reliability Achieving performance targets for accuracy, reliability
Expanded products being tested in FY06:Expanded products being tested in FY06:
• Ozone: Ozone:
CONUS domain, CONUS domain, experimentally available:experimentally available: from June, 2006 from June, 2006
– Further developmental work to couple AQ more closely with WRF weather outputFurther developmental work to couple AQ more closely with WRF weather output
• Particulate matter components:Particulate matter components:
Smoke from large fires, Smoke from large fires, experimentally available (CONUS):experimentally available (CONUS): from March 2006 from March 2006
Transport prediction; qualitative. USFS fire emissions, passive transport.Transport prediction; qualitative. USFS fire emissions, passive transport.
Aerosols produced/transported; sources from anthropogenic emissions in climatologic Aerosols produced/transported; sources from anthropogenic emissions in climatologic inventories; inventories; in developmental testing (CONUS): from June, 2006in developmental testing (CONUS): from June, 2006