Next Steps in Regional Haze Planning in the Western U.S.

Prepared by the WESTAR Planning Committee for the Fall Business Meeting, Tempe, AZ

October 31, 2011

Draft-Do Not Cite or QuoteRegional Haze SIP/FIP Status(September 2011)

6

States with final SIPs submitted (also AK)

San Juan GS FIP (FINAL)

States that have not submitted SIPs (also HI and VI)

Proposed SIP or FIP7

2 Final SIP (full program)

3 Final SIP – BART only

Four Corners and Navajo FIPs

Due Dates for Updates

• 308 States: Progress report due 5 years from submittal of the first haze plan and must be in the form of an implementation plan revision (51.308(g)).

• 309 States: State must submit progress report in 2013 (51.309(d)(10)); also must be in SIP form.

• Comprehensive plan revision (51.308(f)) due in 2018 and every 10 years thereafter.

Regional Haze5-Year Updates Under 40 CFR 51.308(g)(h)&(i)

• Description of the status of implementation of all measures (g)(1)• Summary of emission reductions (g)(2)• Assess visibility conditions in each Class I area, comparing baseline

and current conditions (g)(3)• Analysis of change in emissions over past 5 years (g)(4)• Assess significant changes in anthropogenic emissions (g)(5)• Assess whether current plan is sufficient (g)(6)• Review State’s monitoring strategy (g)(7)• Statement of adequacy of existing plan (h)(1, 2, 3)• FLM consultation (i)(4)• 309 States have additional and unique requirements (additional

regional coordination projects)

Issues With 5-Year Updates• Monitoring:

• Current, baseline and delta for five-year periods.• IMPROVE data two-year delays.• Different due dates for states.• Focus on best and worst days.

• Emissions:• Changes over the past 5 years. • Different due dates.• Baseline for TSS was 2002 with projections to 2018.• Emission reductions that haven’t been approved.• Some emission categories need work.• RH emission reductions (including BART) not included in 2005-09 time frame.• Need to keep emissions regionally defined.

• Wildfire: Huge and varying impacts in the West, not going away.• Coordination with other states and FLMs.

Strategies for the 5-Year Update

• Continue to rely on regional support for the technical pieces (monitoring and emissions data) through a Regional Technical Report which consolidates time frames (work product desired late 2012).

• Utilize WRAP/WESTAR for continuing interstate and FLM consultation.

• In addition to regional technical report, keep telling the collective success story, in spite of frustrations and ongoing challenges.

Western Regional Technical Report for Haze SIP 5-year Progress Reports

Analysis of Monitoring and Emissions Data

Regional Products to assist States with RHR Planning

October 31, 2011

Regional Haze Rule 5-year Progress ReportsRegional Technical Analysis

• Monitoring– Use IMPROVE Report as starting point– Analyze IMPROVE Worst and Best Visibility Days’ data for

each Class I area in the West– Compare 2000-04 “Baseline Period” to 2005-09 “First

Progress Period” data– Analyze reasons for change in visibility– Develop state reports and review in detail with each state

Absolute change in dv from the baseline (2000–2004) to period 1 (2005–2009) for the 20% worst visibility days at 107 of the 110 IMPROVE regional haze tracking sites. Brown circles indicate degradation in the worst 20% visibility days, while blue circles represent improvement in worst 20% visibility days.

Absolute change in dv from the baseline (2000–2004) to period 1 (2005–2009) for the 20% best visibility days at 107 of the 110 IMPROVE regional haze tracking sites. Brown circles indicate degradation in the best 20% visibility days, while blue circles represent improvement in best 20% visibility days.

Fraction of hypothetical ammonium sulfate uniform rate of progress (URP) for the 20% worst visibility days at 107 of the 110 IMPROVE regional haze tracking sites from the baseline (2000–2004) to period 1 (2005–2009). Brown circles indicate degradation in the worst 20% visibility days due to ammonium sulfate extinction, while blue circles represent improvement in worst 20% visibility days due to ammonium sulfate extinction.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 After BAR

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Western State Power Plant Emissions Trends

SO2 (tpy)

NOx (tpy)

Historical data from EPA Clean Air Markets Division, Projections by WGA AQ program staff

Regional Haze Rule 5-year Progress ReportsRegional Technical Analysis

• Emissions– Prioritize emissions analyses based on finding from

analysis of IMPROVE monitoring data for Worst and Best Visibility Days for each Class I area in the West

– Compare 2002 “Baseline” to 2008 WestJumpAQMS emissions• Analyze changes in anthropogenic emissions• Work with states to document reasons for those changes• Analyze natural sources for change and variation

2008 Emissions Inventories from WestJumpAQMSwill be used for Regional Haze 5-year Progress Reports

• Emissions, cont.– Link changes and variation in emissions to

monitored data– Identify key emissions sources for further work in

anticipation of 2018 full Regional Haze SIP revision due date

– Develop state reports and review in detail with each state

Regional Haze Technical Report Timeline

• Analysis and review of IMPROVE Monitoring Data with individual states for each Class I area• February 2012 start

• Inventory and Analysis of 2008 Emissions Data from WestJumpAQMS• November 2011 start• Series of calls with WRAP member agencies’ experts to

review sources of emissions data • Drafting of report mid-2012, final report targeted for

Fall 2012