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Greece could drop euro but tragedy won't followBy Catherine Tymkiw@CNNMoneyInvestMay 7, 2012: 7:11 PM ET

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The chances of Greece leaving the eurozone are rising, but it won't be disruptive.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The results of the latest elections in Greece may make it more likely that the country will eventually leave

the eurozone. But such an exit would probably be more orderly than Greece's default, experts said.

Over the weekend, Greece was unable to pull together a cohesive government, as voters signaled their displeasure with the spate

of harsh austerity measures thrust upon them.

That has increased the odds of a Greek exit from the eurozone. According to Citigroup (C,Fortune 500) analysts, the probability of a

Greek exit, which they dubbed a "Grexit," is now as high as 75%.

Citi analysts said the election results highlighted the sharpest drop in public support for mainstream parties in decades and

"underscores rising public opposition against austerity."

Europe: Now comes the hard part

It also may throw into question the next round of bailout funding from the IMF, European Central Bank and European Union. More than

31 billion is slated to be disbursed during the quarter. If Greece fails to make progress, the so-called troika may withhold the money

and Greece would run out of funding, say the analysts.

That could set the conditions for a eurozone exit in motion.

"[Greece] is not going to get pushed, but they might walk out," Citi chief economist Willem Buiter said at last week's Milken Institute

Global Conference.

If Greece leaves the eurozone, presumably the drachma currency would make a comeback. That could prove to be a boon for the

nation. Tourism could see a resurgence, especially if the exchange rates are favorable, and wages could be revived, boosting overall

consumer spending.

Economist Nouriel Roubini thinks Portugal and Ireland may also find themselves restructuring their debt and could even wind up

following Greece out the door, but none of that should prove disruptive to world markets.

"If a small country -- like Greece or Portugal -- exit, you can have an orderly divorce, but if that restructuring and/or exit hits Italy or

Spain, effectively you could get a breakup of the eurozone," Roubini said. But he added that's an unlikely scenario.

Much of how things shake out will also depend on policy makers, who want to move forward in a constructive manner.

"It has been a bad idea to bet against policy makers ever since the fall of Lehman," said Brevan Howard chief U.S. economist Jason

Cummins. "You have to believe policy makers are working for the best intentions."

He noted that policymakers played a key role in the United States' bank bailouts, "fostering conditions so we could recover." And in

Europe, he pointed to the ECB's long-term refinancing operations, or LTROs, as having helped European banks get their footing.

"Over the coming years, we should be prepared for the idea that policy makers will eventually do the right thing though it won't always

be a smooth path," Cummins said.

Austerity is a dirty word , but what's the alternative? - CNN

And default is becoming a less scary scenario for some. "Greece defaulted and we're still here," said Cummins. "It's not the end of life

on earth as we know it."

Most agreed that the eurozone could look quite different in a year's time.

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$34,000 in debt, wants to start a business

However, it's the attorney fees that are the biggest expense.

If you have been making some payments on your debts, an attorney may advise you to stop paying creditors, which can free up the

money you need to pay the attorney's fees.

But if you haven't had enough money to make any payments to creditors, Detweiler recommends asking friends or family members for

help. If that doesn't work, you could sell some of your belongings or get a second job, as long as your attorney says that it wouldn't

affect your ability to receive bankruptcy protection.

Brewer, of the National Association of Consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys, said sometimes it's just a matter of rearranging priorities.

"If the need is crucial enough, consumers usually find a way to come up with the money," he said.

FORTUNE 500 2012

20 most profitable companiesFrom oil to iPads, here are the 20 companies that pulled in the most massive sums.

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Exxon Mobil

1 of 20

Fortune 500 rank:1

2011 profit: $41.6 billion

It looks as if Exxon Mobil has it all. It's not only No. 1 on this year's Fortune 500 list, it has also topped our list of most profitable

companies. With a total profit of $41 billion for 2011, Exxon surpassed all of its Big Oil competitors, including BP, Chevron,

ConocoPhillips, and Shell.

The company repurchased 278 million shares of its common stock at a gross of $22.1 billion. It also struck a deal with oil giant

AMERICA'S DEBT CHALLENGE

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French and Greek elections: Lessons for U.S.By Jeanne Sahadi @CNNMoneyMay 8, 2012: 12:54 PM ET

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Supporters of Socialist Francois Hollande celebrate his victory as president-elect of France. Hollande wants to renegotiate the fiscal compact President Nicolas Sarkozy

supported and add measures to spur economic growth.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The French and Greek election results are being viewed as a smackdown on austerity.

In France, SocialistFrancois Hollandewon the presidential election, defeating incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, who supported

thecompactto increase fiscal discipline in the Eurozone.

And the makeup of the next Greek government remainsunclearafter the pro-austerity parties didn't win enough parliamentary seats to

form a majority.

There are at least two key lessons for fiscal policymakers in the United States, wheredebtis on track to reach unsustainable levels in

the next decade or two.

The perils of a fiscal 180: Waiting too long to deal with fiscal imbalances, and then trying to impose austerity measures virtually

overnight, invites all sorts of trouble economically and politically.

"Anytime you try to slam the brakes, it's going to be difficult. So why do it if you don't have to?" said Simon Johnson, former chief

economist for the International Monetary Fund and now a professor at the MIT Sloane School of Management.

For now, the United States, unlike many eurozone countries, is not being pushed by markets to slam the brakes.French vote to test Europe's stance on austerity

That's because the U.S. fiscal situationdiffersin three key ways from debt-laden Eurozone countries. The United States controls its

own currency and so can use the dollar to help manage the economy. That economy is large and diverse. And the country is still able to

borrow moneyat very low interest ratesbecause it's perceived as a safe haven.

But, Johnson added, "we shouldn't be complacent. Our fiscal adjustment can be more gradual, but you have to start now."

How gradual? "Over 20 years would be fine. We don't have to do what Europeans are trying to do over a few years," he said.

And having a plan that unfolds gradually can mean that near-term economic growth needn't be hobbled, and individuals would have

time to plan for future changes.

It's easier said than done, of course. Having a plan requires agreement on what should be in the plan. So far, Democrats and

Republicans haven't specialized inreaching agreements.

They'll have an opportunity to improve on that record by year's end. If lawmakers fail to compromise, they will activate an inadvertent

and poorly designed austerity package astrillions in spending cuts and tax increaseswill be triggered by expiring policies.

The perils of public expectation: A second lesson the United States can draw from the French elections in particular relates to the

disconnect between what the public wants and what it's willing to do to get it.Harvard economist Ken Rogoff doesn't see the election of Hollande as a rejection of austerity so much as a rejection of Germany's

influence in the eurozone and its leading role in the drive toward austerity in the region.

The French "don't want to give up any of their sovereignty," Rogoff said. "In the United States, Americans want government services,

but they don't want to pay for them."

Until politicians are willing to tell voters the truth, and until voters are willing to listen to realistic plans to restore fiscal sustainability,

making progress on the budget front will be difficult indeed.

Bank of America meeting: Will investors even beallowed in?

FORTUNE -- This is turning into a very different kind of shareholder season, one that is every bit as much about civic concerns as it isabout the price of any stock, as investors have been denied admission to their own annual meetings amid concerns over surrounding

protests.

Bank of America (BAC) will be stepping into the batter's box at its annual meeting tomorrow. Anticipating protesters, Curt Walton, city

manager for Charlotte, declared BofA's annual meeting an extraordinary event, giving police enhanced rights of arrest.

The event may indeed be extraordinary if it resembles the April 24 Wells Fargo (WFC) and May 1 Peabody Energy's (BTU) meetings. At

those meetings, some shareholders were kept outside because of troubling admissions procedures. But annual meetings are an

important shareholder right. "The only element that legitimizes the power of large corporations is their accountability to their owners. Any

dilution in the effectiveness of this accountability has the effect of removing a legitimate role for business in American society," says Bob

Monks, founder of LENS Investments.

WellPoint faces shareholder ire over political spending

On April 30, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan received notice from a coalition of 10 groups, including corporate watchdog

Common Cause, wanting to ensure that the bank's meeting tomorrow will welcome all shareholders. The coalition requested a meeting

by May 4 to discuss Moynihan's plans to prevent a repeat of what happened at Wells Fargo. As of yesterday, Moynihan had not

responded to the coalition's letter. A Bank of America spokesperson told me he had not seen the letter, althoughpress reportsindicatehe knew of it.

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Delays and denials at Wells Fargo

At Wells Fargo's meeting, SEIU executive board member Stephen Lerner arrived two hours early, but he was not allowed to cross

police barricades the whole time and never gained entry, he told me. He kept travelling to different entrances and asking how he could

gain admission, he says. When he saw people entering without stock credentials, the police told him they were service people assisting

with the meeting. Others who gained entry f lashed ID badges and appeared to be employees, he says. Lerner went to an entrance

where police had told him to go, but they never let him line up to attend the meeting, he says. Lerner works with the coalition that sent

the letter to Bank of America, which calls itself "99% Power." He will be in Charlotte tomorrow.Lerner wasn't the only one kept at the gates. Marguerite Young, western states director for capital stewardship at SEIU, says she

arrived at around 9:30 in the morning for the 1 p.m. Wells Fargo meeting. She was told to go to an alley entrance and she stood in line

there. The processing of individuals moved slowly. At around 10:30, officials allowed people waiting behind her to cut in front of the line.

They were flashing badges -- as opposed to stock ownership credentials -- suggesting that these individuals were employees. At a little

after noon, she says she was the next person in line to enter when she was told the room was full and that she could not go in.

When I spoke with Young yesterday, she was at the post office mailing letters to the state of Delaware and the SEC related to the

exclusion of Wells Fargo shareholders from the annual meeting. The letters, Young says, call for a thorough investigation to determine if

Delaware state law or bylaws had been broken. One remedy in such an instance would be to redo the annual meeting, she says.

When I asked about space issues at the meeting, a spokesperson for Wells Fargo told me that "that didn't come from the bank." The

room had a 270-person capacity and there were more than 200 people in the room, the spokesperson said. "Because of protests, San

Francisco police blocked some of shareholders from coming," he said, expressing disappointment that not all shareholders could attend.

The spokesperson did not know the employee-to-shareholder ratio at the annual meeting.

MORE:A master pitchman takes the stage to humanize Facebook

Young says other shareholders were let in through different entrances. CalSTRS investment officer Phil Larrieu was one such

shareholder, but it certainly wasn't a cakewalk. Larrieu was there to present a proposal for the New York City pension funds on an

internal controls report related to mortgage servicing, he says. Prior to his arrival, he had exchanged emails with Mary E. Schaffner,

Wells Fargo's senior company counsel and assistant corporate secretary, and Schaffner was anxious that he get in, he says.

When Larrieu arrived at the meeting's location, he went to the front of the building. Police were blocking the way. He dropped

Schaffner's name and said he was there to present, to no avail. He then went to the side entrance, and again the police would not let

him in. Finally, he went to the back entrance, where there were two lines of police, he says. After much discussion, he got through the

first police line. At the second line, after another discussion, a private security officer intervened. The officer took his business card to

Schaffner. After she gave the okay, he was finally let in.

Pushback at Peabody

At Peabody Energy, the situation was slightly different but led to a similar outcome. Arif Haque, an attorney at the law firm Border

Crossing was at the event. Shareholders began to arrive at around 8:30 a.m., he says. Observing from a distance, he saw there was

more than one entrance line. Once a person's paperwork was processed in the first line, they were sent to a second line. The lines were

slow and a Peabody official was mistakenly rejecting candidates claiming they all owned the same shares, he says. Haque stood in the

first line with some of the shareholders who had been bumped. After persuading a Peabody official that their paperwork was in order,

those shareholders went to the second line, but given all the delays, they never got to attend the meeting, he says.Concerned that there was no reason the lines should be taking as long as they did, Haque says he approached police officers, telling

them he needed to speak with a Peabody lawyer. At around 9:45 a.m., a corporate compliance officer came outside. Haque says he

explained that a person with one share has as much a right as one with 40 shares to attend and that you can't profile people attending a

shareholder meeting as to who will ask questions and who won't.

The compliance officer told Haque he could see him in Delaware court, Haque says. But the St. Louis courts were a couple of blocks

away, so Haque handed some paperwork to a Peabody representative and headed there. He obtained a preliminary order from a judge

ordering that nine shareholders be admitted. By the time he was back from court, however, the Peabody meeting was over.

MORE:Yahoo may need to go back to the drawing board

Peabody Energy sent an email statement from Vic Svec, senior vice president of investor relations, saying that "the doors were closed

at 10:00 am at the start of the meeting. Prior to that t ime, we admitted individuals possessing proper credentials ofshare

ownership. It is unfortunate if the acts of protesters stalled the process."

The SEIU's Lerner says what happened at Wells Fargo is unlike anything he has ever experienced before. He attended the 2009 Bank

of America meeting, when shareholders decided to strip then-CEO Ken Lewis of the chair title. There were no problems at that meeting

regarding shareholder admission, he says.

All eyes will be on Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan tomorrow. How he handles this meeting, with forewarning that monitors will be

present, will be a test of his leadership. Not responding to the coalition of investors, however, may not have been his best first move.

May 2012Last updated at 10:02 GMTShare this page

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Commerzbank results hit by Greek deswapCommerzbank said the eurozone debt crisis would remain a "challenge" to revenues

Commerzbank has reported worse-than-expected three month results,hit by the Greek debt swap and weak trading.

First-quarter net profitcame in at 369m euros ($479m; 297m), down 63%from the same period last year.

Commerzbank took part in the Greek debt swap and the sold almost all of thenew bonds it received, losing 69m euros in the process.

Germany's second biggest lender said the eurozone debt crisis wouldcontinue to hit its earnings.

"The high degree of uncertainty associated with the European sovereign debtcrisis will continue to pose a challenge to the bank's revenue situation," itschief financial officer Stephan Engels said.

Last year, it was reported that Commerzbank almost had to be nationalised

because of its holdings of Greek debt.

It is still 25% owned by the German government following a 2009 bailout.

Bonus battleThe bank said it had comfortably exceeded the 5.3bn euros it was asked bythe European Union to raise in extra capital, that would act as a cushion forfuture crises.

It has been selling riskier assets and reducing its borrowing as it tries to

strengthen its finances.

Its investment banking arm performed poorly in the first three months of theyear, which is traditionally the strongest for investment banks. Operatingprofits at the unit fell 88% to 30m euros.

In another development, a group of 104 London-based bankers hassucceeded in a High Court action against Commerzbank to claim unpaidbonuses worth more than 50m euros (40m).

The bankers are all former employees of Dresdner Kleinwort, which was taken

over by Commerzbank at the end of 2008.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18002103?print=truehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18002103?print=truehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18002103?print=truehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18002103?print=truehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18002103http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18002103http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18002103http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18002103http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18002103http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18002103https://irpages2.equitystory.com/commerzbank/pdf/Zwischenbericht_Q1_2012_en.pdfhttps://irpages2.equitystory.com/commerzbank/pdf/Zwischenbericht_Q1_2012_en.pdfhttps://irpages2.equitystory.com/commerzbank/pdf/Zwischenbericht_Q1_2012_en.pdfhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18002103http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18002103http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18002103

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Commerzbank said it would appeal against the decision, which came after alegal battle lasting more than two-and-a-half years.

Opening Remarks

The Great Fall of ChinaByPeter Coy, Dexter Roberts, andBruce Einhornon May 02, 2012

Qi hu nan xia, goes a Chinese proverb: When one rides a tiger, it is difficult to dismount. For the leaders of Chinas 1.3

billion people, the import is clear. Stay on the tigers back, issue commands, and hope like hell the beast doesnt turn on

you. Over the last quarter-century that approach has served the mandarins of the Communist Party well. China became

an economic marvel and staked a claim as the worlds next superpower. Civil liberties, social development,

environmental husbandry, and political transparency were subordinate to the imperatives of growth. Increasing

complaints about the avarice and gangsterism of government officials could be dismissed as local problems as long as an

enlightened elite was thought to be guiding the state with a steady hand. Even when under pressure to reform, Chinas

leaders could reassure themselves that their grip on power remained secure.

Not anymore. The Communist Party faces the most serious threat to its authority since the Tiananmen Square uprising

of 1989. The case of Bo Xilai alarms Chinas leadership precisely because it weakens the impression of strength and

competence they have labored so hard to maintain. A tough-on-crime princeling about to be welcomed into the ruling

elite is suddenly accused of being corrupt; his wife is implicated in the murder of a British business associate; the

familys fortune, totaling over a hundred million dollars, exposes the wealth high-ranking bureaucrats have amassed at

the publics expense.

These episodes have revealed to the worldand to a sizable portion of the Chinese peoplea culture of greed, violence,

and deceit at the highest levels of government. The Communists power is not in imminent danger, but their legitimacy

is.

http://www.businessweek.com/authors/2027-peter-coyhttp://www.businessweek.com/authors/2027-peter-coyhttp://www.businessweek.com/authors/864-dexter-robertshttp://www.businessweek.com/authors/864-dexter-robertshttp://www.businessweek.com/authors/864-dexter-robertshttp://www.businessweek.com/authors/449-bruce-einhornhttp://www.businessweek.com/authors/449-bruce-einhornhttp://www.businessweek.com/authors/449-bruce-einhornhttp://www.businessweek.com/authors/449-bruce-einhornhttp://www.businessweek.com/authors/864-dexter-robertshttp://www.businessweek.com/authors/2027-peter-coy

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Already on the defensive, Chinas

leadership was left sputtering with indignation on May 2 after a blind dissident, Chen Guangcheng, left the protection of

the U.S. Embassy in the company of Ambassador Gary Locke. Chen has suffered years of persecution for challenging

forced abortions and sterilization. In another era Chen might have disappeared the moment he left the embassy, where

he sought refuge a week earlier. The circumstances of his departure from U.S. custody remain murky, and its impossible

to know whether Chen and his family will be protected from harassment in the future. But China is in the spotlight now.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, visiting Beijing for the the annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue,

announced that China had committed to let Chen pursue higher education in a safe environment.

For Chinas partners in commerce, this is a time of confusion and riskand also opportunity. Western companies such

as Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Caterpillar (CAT), General Motors (GM), and Siemens (SI) have bet big on the continuation

of Chinas economic miracle. No sensible CEO dares to kick the Chinese leaders when theyre down. With the outcome

still uncertain, no one wants to pick sides, either.

Finesse is called for, along with a clear focus on what really matters. Western governments and businesses benefit if

China moves in the direction of free markets and democracy. They lose if Chinas leaders try vainly to keep the lid on the

pressure cooker. While Western leaders dont have much influence over what happens next, they can at least keep the

lines of communication open while quietly appealing to the enlightened self-interest of Chinas would-be reformers.

Thinking people understand the need for change, says Duncan Clark, chairman of Beijing-based consulting group BDA

China. China is the Pragmatic Republic of China; ultimately pragmatism drives everything.

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All of which is to say that its a mistake to stop doing business with China. Just as its a mistake to think this is business

as usual.

The Bo Xilai case is rocking China and shaking the West because it has revealed the breakdown of a contract

between the leaders and people of China. The unspoken deal is that the colorless chiefs of the Communist Party will

deliver prosperity, keep low-level graft under control, and ensure a smooth transition of power every 10 years. In return,

the Chinese people will work hard and tolerate their lack of say in how their country functions.

Until recently the skids appeared well greased. This fall the 18th Party Congress is expected to name the reform-minded

Vice President Xi Jinping, 58, as president and Party secretary. Li Keqiang, 56, executive vice premier in charge of the

economy, is in line to be premier. Those appointments are still on track. Whats now in play is who else will sit on the

nine-member Politburo Standing Committee, the group that collectively runs China. Bo wont get his once-expected

seat. Who ascends is the subject of a multi-directional struggle among forces including those of current President Hu

Jintao and of his 85-year-old predecessor, the still-active Jiang Zemin. The 2,000 or so delegates who will vote are being

selected now in backroom bargaining thats undoubtedly brutal.

How Europe's Austerity Backlash Might Change U.S. PoliticsByJoshua Greenon May 08, 2012

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VIDEOEuropean Stocks Drop as Voters Reject Austerity

VIDEO

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Growth vs Austerity : Europe's Economic Struggle

Obama Campaign Puts Its Spin on the Economy

The Left and the Right Take Aim at the Fed

Hollande's Win: No Radical Change for France

Why Canada's Austerity Isn't a Good Example for U.S.

Austerity's Advocate: A Date With Dr. Nein

VIDEOWhat Does Austerity Mean for Ordinary Greeks?

Companies Mentioned

KBW

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KBW INC

o $16.38 USDo -0.03o -0.18%

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The U.S. Congress is hardly a bastion of Europhilesremember all that nonsense aboutFreedom Fries? When

politicians here do cite the Continent, it tends to be in the form of a derogatory political attack, e.g., Mitt Romneys

frequently invoked line about how President Obama wants to Europeanize America.

So the idea that U.S. lawmakers might learn something from their foreign counterparts and adjust their views

accordingly after the anti-austerity wave sweeping through France and Greece isnt necessarily an obvious one. After all,

Republicans point to Greece as an example of what will happen if the U.S. doesnt rein in its debt.

Nevertheless, at least some experts believe that Europes plight will make austerity measures less likely in the U.S. After

all, austeritys effect this week on the careers of prominent Greek and French politiciansnamely, ending them

certainly might alter a lawmakers views toward the necessity of deep budget cuts. A new research note from investment

bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)makes this case. In our view, these elections will ultimately diminish the chances

that the U.S. adopts austere fiscal policies, writes the banks senior vice president of Washington research, Brian

Gardner. Thus, we feel confident that the fiscal cliff facing the U.S. economy at year-end will be averted at least

temporarily.

Among the implications, Gardner suggests, are that the full Bush tax cuts (including those on high earners) are likely to

be extended for another year. I spoke to him Tuesday to suss out how this might happen, given liberals staunch

opposition to extending the high-end tax cuts and Republicans agreement that austerity is the path forward.

I dont think you can look at Republicans as being homogenous, and moderate members have to be getting nervous,

Gardner said. Post-election, if House Republicans suffer meaningful losses10 to 15 seatsDemocrats will blame the

Paul Ryan budget. Thatwill spook surviving Republicans and make Democrats less inclined to accept entitlement cuts.

Result: Theyll punt, by raising the debt ceiling in exchange for an extension of the cuts, buying time to work through tax

reform.

Gardner also thinks that the Federal Reserve will influence Congress toward this result. Theyll get pressure from the

Fed to do that as well, he said. Ben Bernanke has been pointed in warning about the fiscal cliff. [Extending the Bush

tax cuts] is not incompatible with avoiding that and buys time.

Right now, thats not a deal either party would make. But implicit in Gardners prediction is the idea that above all,

lawmakers of both parties will want to avoid the Europeanization of U.S. politicsbecause one unmistakable effect is

that it tends to cost incumbents their jobs.

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The BNP Paribas SA logo is seen outside the company's office in Paris. Even after the ECB provided an unprecedented 1 trillion euros of three-year loans to bolster the

regions banks, loans to non-financial companies in the euro area fell 0.17 percent in April, according to ECB data. Photographer: Balint Porneczi/Bloomberg

Bloomberg News

Moody's Bank Rating Cuts May Risk Europe Recovery

By Liam Vaughan on May 08, 2012

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MORGAN STANLEY

o $15.84 USDo

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JPMORGAN CHASE & CO

o $41.38 USDo -0.40o -0.97% GS

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC/THE

o

$109.37 USDo -0.67o -0.61% BAC

BANK OF AMERICA CORP

o $7.79 USDo -0.17o -2.18% C

CITIGROUP INC

o $31.32 USDo -0.35o -1.12% BLK

BLACKROCK INC

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Moodys Investors Service will this month start cutting the credit ratings of more than 100 banks, a move that risks

pushing up their funding costs and forcing them to curb lending in a threat to economic growth.

BNP Paribas SA (BNP), Frances biggest lender, Deutsche Bank AG, Germanys largest, and New York-based Morgan

Stanley are among firms that face having their short- and long-term debt downgraded to their lowest-ever levels by

Moodys, the ratings company said in February.

The cuts, which would follow downgrades by Standard & Poors and Fitch Ratings last year, could erode profits, trigger

margin calls and leave some firms unable to borrow from money- market funds that have strict rules on who they can

lend to. Without access to funding from private sources, banks have had to sell assets and reduce lending.

Id like to say the views of the rating agencies dont matter anymore but, unfortunately, they do, said Philippe

Bodereau, London-based head of European credit research at Pacific Investment Management Co., the worlds largest

bond investor. This is a setback for the banks, particularly when you consider howmuch progress they have made in

making themselves safer and more transparent.

Intense Pressure

Even after the European Central Bank provided an unprecedented 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) of three-year loans to

bolster the regions banks, loans to non-financial companies in the euro area fell 0.17 percent in April, according to ECB

data. Europes economy probably slipped into recession in the first quarter as the debt crisis forced governments to step

up spending cuts, according to 16 out of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=JPM:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=JPM:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=JPM:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=JPM:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=JPM:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=JPM:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=JPM:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=JPM:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=JPM:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=JPM:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=JPM:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=JPM:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=GS:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=GS:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=BAC:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=BAC:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=C:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=C:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=BLK:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=BLK:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/common/symbollookup/symbollookup.asphttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/common/symbollookup/symbollookup.asphttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/common/symbollookup/symbollookup.asphttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=BLK:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=C:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=BAC:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=GS:US

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The more the cost of wholesale funding goes up, the more likely it is that banks will want to retreat closer to a loan - to-

deposit ratio of one, said Huw van Steenis, a banking analyst at Morgan Stanley (MS) (MS)in London. That adds to

the intense pressure to deleverage, which will be a drag anchor on European economic recovery.

Moodys said in January it would overhaul howit rates European banks and firms with global securities operations to

reflect the adverse effects of the sovereign-debt crisis, dwindling economic growth and the latest round of capital rules

set by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.

The ratings company said in an April 13 note that it will start the downgrades in early May with a review of Italian

lenders, before moving on to countries including Spain, Austria, Sweden, Norway, the U.K. and Germany. Global

capital-markets firms, including the U.S. investment banks, are unlikely to have their ratings changed until June,

according to analysts.

Speculative Elements

The combination of current challenges and inherent risk factors has introduced speculative elements into the

obligations of these firms that we believe are not fully reflected in their current ratings, Moodys said in a note

published Jan. 19. Jessica Eddens, a spokeswoman for the firm, declined to comment on the review.

UBS AG (UBSN) and Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN), Switzerlands biggest lenders, Spains Banco Bilbao Vizcaya

Argentaria SA (BBVA) and Morgan Stanley, owner of the worlds largest brokerage, are facing three-step downgrades on

their long-term debt, Moodys said.JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) (JPM), the largest and most profitable U.S.

bank, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) (GS), the fifth-biggest in the U.S., and HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA), the U.K.s

biggest, could be cut two levels.

Moodys may apply less severe downgrades after a stronger- than-expected first quarter, Pimcos Bodereau said.

Officials at the banks declined to comment.

Any ratings cuts would heap further misery on the industry as the boost that followed the ECBs cash injections in

December and February wears off and policy makers struggle to extinguish the sovereign-debt crisis.

Bank Stocks

The 43-member Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index (BEBANKS) has fallen 18 percent from its

March 19 high. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index of credit-default swaps, which measures the cost of insuring the debt

of 25 European banks against default, has jumped 41 percent over the same period.

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) (BAC), the U.K.s Barclays Plc (BARC) and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS), and

UBS are among firms whose short- term debt ratings, for loans of less than a years duration, could be cut. A reduction

to P-2 from P-1 would bar some money funds from providing them with loans. The banks declined to comment about

the ratings reviews.

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=MS:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=MS:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=MS:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=JPM:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=JPM:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=JPM:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=GS:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=GS:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=GS:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=BAC:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=BAC:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=BAC:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=BAC:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=GS:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=JPM:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=MS:US

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U.S. money-market funds cut their exposure to lenders at risk of being downgraded to P-2 by $21 billion in the two

months ended in March, according to an April 11 report by Alex Roever, an analyst at JPMorgan in New York. The funds

increased their exposure to banks not under review by Moodys by $4 billion.

Investing

Trouble for China's Foreign IPOsByFox Huon May 03, 2012

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The Great Fall of China

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How to Strike a Deal in China: Juan Antonio Fernandez

Private Equity Rushes Into China Technology

China's Surprising U.S. Buying Spree

China's Dueling Economic Theories

As China's Economy Tightens, Rates May Fall

Companies Mentioned

1698

BOSHIWA INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD

o $1.68 HKDo 0.00

o 0.0% 1768

SATERI HOLDINGS LTD

o $2.08 HKDo -0.03o -1.44% 1091

CITIC DAMENG HOLDINGS LTD

o $1.01 HKDo -0.05o -4.95% CTESY

SINOTECH ENERGY LTD

o $0.03 USDo 0.00o 0.0%

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-04-12/how-to-strike-a-deal-in-china-juan-antonio-fernandezhttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-04-12/how-to-strike-a-deal-in-china-juan-antonio-fernandezhttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-30/private-equity-rushes-into-china-technologyhttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-30/private-equity-rushes-into-china-technologyhttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-27/chinas-surprising-u-dot-s-dot-buying-spreehttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-27/chinas-surprising-u-dot-s-dot-buying-spreehttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-22/chinas-dueling-economic-theorieshttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-22/chinas-dueling-economic-theorieshttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-22/as-chinas-economy-tightens-rates-may-fallhttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-22/as-chinas-economy-tightens-rates-may-fallhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1698:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1698:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1768:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1768:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1091:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1091:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=CTESY:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=CTESY:UShttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-22/as-chinas-economy-tightens-rates-may-fallhttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-22/chinas-dueling-economic-theorieshttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-27/chinas-surprising-u-dot-s-dot-buying-spreehttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-30/private-equity-rushes-into-china-technologyhttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-22/as-chinas-economy-tightens-rates-may-fallhttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-22/chinas-dueling-economic-theorieshttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-27/chinas-surprising-u-dot-s-dot-buying-spreehttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-30/private-equity-rushes-into-china-technologyhttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-22/as-chinas-economy-tightens-rates-may-fallhttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-22/chinas-dueling-economic-theorieshttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-27/chinas-surprising-u-dot-s-dot-buying-spreehttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-30/private-equity-rushes-into-china-technologyhttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-22/as-chinas-economy-tightens-rates-may-fallhttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-22/chinas-dueling-economic-theorieshttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-27/chinas-surprising-u-dot-s-dot-buying-spreehttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-30/private-equity-rushes-into-china-technologyhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=CTESY:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1091:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1768:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1698:HKhttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-22/as-chinas-economy-tightens-rates-may-fallhttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-22/chinas-dueling-economic-theorieshttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-27/chinas-surprising-u-dot-s-dot-buying-spreehttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-30/private-equity-rushes-into-china-technologyhttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-04-12/how-to-strike-a-deal-in-china-juan-antonio-fernandez

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VIPS

VIPSHOP HOLDINGS LTD

o $5.3 USDo -0.08o -1.51% AQ

ACQUITY GROUP LTD

o $5.95 USDo -0.13o -2.18% ADN

ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT PLC

o $258.9 GBpo -10.60o -4.09%

Company Lookup

Go

The global appetite for Chinese stocks has encouraged more than 180 Chinese companies to hold initial public offerings

on foreign exchanges since 2010. With equity markets in mainland China largely closed to foreign investors, the newly

public companies seemed like an ideal way to invest in the China growth story. It hasnt worked out that way. Many

stocks of Chinese companies that went public abroad since 2010 have been plagued by accounting problems and profit

warnings that have sent their stocks plunging and poisoned the market for new listings.

Confidence in overseas-listed Chinese stocks was undermined by scandals involving companies that went public in the

U.S. through so-called reverse mergers, in which a firm buys a publicly traded shell company and obtains a listing

without undergoing the regulatory scrutiny of the IPO process. The troubles of Chinese companies that conducted

conventional IPOs have raised questions about the accuracy of financial reporting and the quality of due diligence by the

firms underwriting them. Investors have been concerned: Are these companies accurately portraying themselves? says

Kevin Pollack, a fund manager at Paragon Capital in New York who invests in Chinese companies trading on U.S.

exchanges. Unfortunately, having big-name auditors and bankers behind a company doesnt guarantee its free of

issues.

In Hong Kong, the 110 Chinese companies that have gone public since 2010 have seen their stocks fall an average of

15.8 percent from the initial offer prices through April 26, while non-Chinese companies that had IPOs there have

gained 6.5 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Chinese stocks listed on U.S. exchanges have fared worse.

The 53 companies that completed IPOs there in 2010, 2011, and so far this year are down on average 38 percent from

their offer prices, compared with a 9.9 percent gain for other IPOs.

The problems extend beyond share-price declines. Four Hong Kong-listed Chinese firms, including Boshiwa

International Holding (1698), a Shanghai-based Harry Potter apparel licensee, said their auditors resigned this year

because of disputes over financial data or other information. Boshiwa, whose shares fell 66 percent from their

September 2010 listing price, was suspended from trading on March 15 after accounting firm Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

resigned. Spokesmen for Boshiwa and Deloitte declined to comment.

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=VIPS:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=VIPS:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=AQ:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=AQ:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=ADN:LNhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=ADN:LNhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/common/symbollookup/symbollookup.asphttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/common/symbollookup/symbollookup.asphttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1698:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1698:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1698:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1698:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/common/symbollookup/symbollookup.asphttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=ADN:LNhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=AQ:UShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=VIPS:US

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More than a quarter of the 56 Chinese companies that raised a combined $32 billion in Hong Kong in 2010, including

cellulose producer Sateri Holdings (1768) and manganese mining company Citic Dameng Holdings (1091), have lowered

their growth forecasts, saying they expect significant or substantial declines in revenue. Sateris stock has fallen

66 percent since its December 2010 debut, and Citic Damengs has dropped 61 percent since listing in November of that

year.

Officials are concerned about the performance of recent IPOs, Charles Li, chief executive officer of Hong Kong

Exchanges & Clearing, told reporters on April 24. We will continue to look into this area and aggressively enforce, Li

said.

In the U.S., the Securities and Exchange Commission announced on April 23 that it has sued SinoTech Energy(CTESY),

a Chinese oil-field services company that went public in November 2010, for allegedly overstating the value of its assets

and misrepresenting the use of IPO proceeds. It was delisted by Nasdaq in January. The company could not be reached

for comment. SinoTechs brief life as a public company in theU.S. markets has been rife with falsehoods, David

Woodcock, director of the SECs Fort Worth regional office, said in a statement.

One result is that the pace of foreign IPOs by Chinese companies has slowed. In the first quarter of this year, foreign

Chinese offerings accounted for 5.7 percent of the $11 billion raised worldwide. Overseas IPOs by Chinese firms in 2010

accounted for 16 percent of the $199 billion in global IPO proceeds, excluding mainland China deals. Only two Chinese

companies have had IPOs in the U.S. this year: Internet retailer Vipshop (VIPS) and Acquity Group (AQ), an online

advertising company. Both raised less than their target amounts and are trading below their offering prices. People are

concerned about corporate governance issues and bad press surrounding Chinese companies, says Nicholas Yeo, head

of China and Hong Kong equities at Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN)in Hong Kong. China is still compelling in the

long term, but how to get access to its growth is challenging.

The bottom line: Profit warnings and accounting disputes have hurt many of the nearly 200 Chinese companies

that have gone public abroad since 2010.

Hu is a reporter for Bloomberg News in Hong Kon

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1768:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1768:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1768:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1091:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1091:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1091:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=CTESYhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=CTESYhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=CTESYhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=VIPShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=VIPShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=VIPShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=AQhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=AQhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=AQhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=ADN:LNhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=ADN:LNhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=ADN:LNmailto:fhu7@bloomberg.netmailto:fhu7@bloomberg.netmailto:fhu7@bloomberg.nethttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=ADN:LNhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=AQhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=VIPShttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=CTESYhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1091:HKhttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1768:HK