near earth asteroid: an operations management and ... · pdf file– trans lunar...

Near Earth Asteroid: An Operations Management and Bioastronautics PerspectiveDavid Dominguez, M.S. Webster UniversityAdvised by Dr. Lynnane George, Webster University

AIAA-RM Technical Symposium, October 24, 2014 University of Colorado at Colorado Springs

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Near Earth Asteroid: An Operations Management and Bioastronautics Perspective• Overview & Objective Operations Management

– Statistical Process Control Methods– Earned Value Management

Flexible Path Missions Paradigm– Understand current and future customer needs– Strive to exceed customer expectations.

Bioastronautics Roadmap for Risk Mitigation– Assigns a Risk Rating Priority– 31 Human Health Risks– 14 Additional Deep Space Concerns

Near Earth Asteroid: An Operations Management and Bioastronautics Perspective

• Initial Requirements Exploration Mission 1 (EM-1)

– Unmanned Orion Multipurpose Vehicle– Trans lunar Injection, Partial Orbit and Earth reentry

Asteroid Robotic Capture and Redirect– Object Identification– 100 year stable lunar orbit

Exploration Mission 2 (EM-2)– 5 day crewed lunar orbit– Asteroid rendezvous

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• Risk Rating Priority: Earned Value between 1.0 and 3.0 Table 2: Bioastronautics Risk Rating Priority (Reference 1, page 27)

Risk Rating Priority

Human Health Risks System Performance/Efficiency

1.0

Risk of serious adverse health or performanceconsequences. There is no mitigation strategy that has been validated in space or demonstrated on Earth.

Considerable potential for improvement in mitigation efficiency in many areas is needed; proposed missions may be infeasible without improvements

2.0

Risk of serious health or performance consequences, and there is no mitigation strategy that has been validated in space.

Considerable potential for improvement in mitigation efficiency in a few areas is needed.

3.0

Health and performance consequences are known or suspected, but will not affect mission success due to effective mitigation strategies that have been validated in space.

Minimal potential or limited need for improvement in mitigation efficiency.

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• Bioastronautics Roadmap: Human Health RisksHuman Health Risks

1 AMC Autonomous Medical Care Performance2 BHP Behavioral Health and Performance

3 BHP\SHFBehavioral Health, Performance & Space Human Factors (Cognitive)

4 Bone Bone Loss5 Cardio Cardiovascular Alterations6 Clinical Clinical Capabilities7 EH Environmental Health8 HHC Human Health and Countermeasures9 I & I Immunology & Infection

10 Muscle Skeletal Muscle Alterations11 RH Radiation Health12 SMA Sensory-Motor Adaptation

Near Earth Asteroid: An Operations Management and Bioastronautics Perspective• BRM: Human Health Risks

17 AMC Clinical Monitoring and Prevention 2 2 1 218 AMC Clinical Major Illness and Trauma 2 1 1 119 AMC Clinical Pharmacology of Space Medicine Delivery 2 2 1 220 AMC Clinical Ambulatory Care 3 3 2 221 AMC Clinical Rehabilitation on Mars 0 0 1 122 AMC Clinical Medical Informatics, Technologies and Support Systems 3 2 1 223 AMC Clinical Medical Skill Training and Maintenance 3 2 1 2

24 BHP BHP/SHFHuman Performance Failure Due to Poor Psychological Adaptation 1 2 1 1

25 BHP BHP/SHFHuman Performance Failure Due to Neural behavioral Problems 1 2 1 1

26 BHP BHP/SHFMismatch between Crew Cognitive Capabilities and Task Demands 2 2 1 2

27 BHP BHP/SHFHuman Performance Failure Due to Sleep Loss and Circadian Rhythm Problems 3 3 2 2

28 RH Radiation Carcinogenesis 2 1 1 129 RH Radiation Acute and Late CNS Risks 2 2 1 130 RH Radiation Chronic and Degenerative Tissue Risks 2 2 1 131 RH Radiation Acute Radiation Risks 3 2 1 1

1 HHC Bone Accelerated Bone Loss and Fracture 2 3 2 2

2 HHC Bone Impaired Fracture Healing 3 3 2 2

3 HHC Bone Injury to Joints and Intervertebral Structures 3 2 2 1

4 HHC Bone Renal Stone Formation 3 3 3 3

5 HHC Cardio Occurrence of serious cardiac Dysrhythmias 2 2 2 2

6 HHC Cardio Diminished Cardiac and Vascular Function 2 2 2 2

7 HHC EHDefine Acceptable Limits for Contaminants in Air and water 3 2 1 1

8 HHC I & I Immune Dysfunction, Allergies, and Autoimmunity 2 2 2 2

9 HHC I & IInteraction of Spaceflight Factors, Infections and Malignancy 2 3 2 2

10 HHC I & I Alterations in Microbes and Host Interactions 3 3 2 2

11 HHC Muscle Reduced Muscle Mass, Strength, and Endurance 2 3 2 2

12 HHC Muscle increased Susceptibility to Muscle Damage 3 3 2 2

13 HHC SMAImpaired Sensory-Motor Capability to Perform Operational Tasks During Flight, Entry and Landing 2 2 2 1

14 HHC SMA

Impaired Sensory-Motor Capability to Perform Operational Tasks During After Landing and Throughout Re-Adaptation 2 2 2 2

15 HHC SMA Motion Sickness 3 3 3 3

16 HHC Nutrition Inadequate Nutrition 3 3 2 2

Risk Number CC Area Discipline Risk Title ISS Priority Moon Priority Mars Priority NEA Priority 1 Full Year

1 HHC Bone Accelerated Bone Loss and Fracture 2 3 2 22 HHC Bone Impaired Fracture Healing 3 3 2 23 HHC Bone Injury to Joints and Intervertebral Structures 3 2 2 14 HHC Bone Renal Stone Formation 3 3 3 35 HHC Cardio Occurrence of serious cardiac Dysrhythmias 2 2 2 26 HHC Cardio Diminished Cardiac and Vascular Function 2 2 2 27 HHC EH Define Acceptable Limits for Contaminants in Air and water 3 2 1 18 HHC I & I Immune Dysfunction, Allergies, and Autoimmunity 2 2 2 29 HHC I & I Interaction of Spaceflight Factors, Infections and Malignancy 2 3 2 2

10 HHC I & I Alterations in Microbes and Host Interactions 3 3 2 211 HHC Muscle Reduced Muscle Mass, Strength, and Endurance 2 3 2 212 HHC Muscle increased Susceptibility to Muscle Damage 3 3 2 2

13 HHC SMAImpaired Sensory-Motor Capability to Perform Operational Tasks During Flight, Entry and Landing 2 2 2 1

14 HHC SMAImpaired Sensory-Motor Capability to Perform Operational Tasks During After Landing and Throughout Re-Adaptation 2 2 2 2

15 HHC SMA Motion Sickness 3 3 3 316 HHC Nutrition Inadequate Nutrition 3 3 2 217 AMC Clinical Monitoring and Prevention 2 2 1 218 AMC Clinical Major Illness and Trauma 2 1 1 119 AMC Clinical Pharmacology of Space Medicine Delivery 2 2 1 220 AMC Clinical Ambulatory Care 3 3 2 221 AMC Clinical Rehabilitation on Mars 0 0 1 122 AMC Clinical Medical Informatics, Technologies and Support Systems 3 2 1 223 AMC Clinical Medical Skill Training and Maintenance 3 2 1 224 BHP BHP/SHF Human Performance Failure Due to Poor Psychological Adaptation 1 2 1 125 BHP BHP/SHF Human Performance Failure Due to Neural behavioral Problems 1 2 1 126 BHP BHP/SHF Mismatch between Crew Cognitive Capabilities and Task Demands 2 2 1 2

27 BHP BHP/SHFHuman Performance Failure Due to Sleep Loss and Circadian Rhythm Problems 3 3 2 2

28 RH Radiation Carcinogenesis 2 1 1 129 RH Radiation Acute and Late CNS Risks 2 2 1 130 RH Radiation Chronic and Degenerative Tissue Risks 2 2 1 131 RH Radiation Acute Radiation Risks 3 2 1 1

2.29 2.23 1.61 1.71

6Table adapted from Risk Rating Results Reference 1.

2.29 2.23 1.61 1.71

• Bioastronautics Roadmap: Deep Space Concerns

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Additional Deep Space and System Performance/Effeciency Risks

1 AEMC Advanced Environmental Monitoring & Control

2 AEVA Advanced Extravehicular Activity

3 AFT Advanced Food Technology

4 AHST Advanced Human Support Technologies

5 ALS Advanced Life Support

6 SHFE Space Human Factors Engineering

Risk Number

CC Area

Discipline Risk Title ISS

PriorityMoon

PriorityMars

Priority

NEA Priority 1 Full Year

32 AHST AEMC Monitor Air Quality 2 1 1 133 AHST AEMC Monitor External Environment 2 1 1 134 AHST AEMC Monitor Water Quality 2 1 1 135 AHST AEMC Monitor Surfaces, Food and Soil 2 1 1 1

36 AHST AEMCProvide Integrated Autonomous Control of Life Support Systems 3 2 1 1

37 AHST AEVAProvide Space Suits and Portable Life Support Systems 3 2 1 1

38 AHST AFT Maintain Food Quantity and Quality 2 3 1 139 AHST ALS Maintain Acceptable Atmosphere 3 2 1 140 AHST ALS Maintain Thermal Balance in Habitable Areas 3 2 1 141 AHST ALS Manage Waste 3 2 1 1

42 AHST ALSProvide and Maintain Bioregenerative Life Support Systems 3 2 1 1

43 AHST ALS Provide and Recover Potable Water 3 2 1 1

44 AHST SHFEMismatch between Crew Physical Capabilities and Task Demands 2 2 1 1

45 AHST SHFEPoorly Integrated Ground Crew and Autonomous Functions 2 2 1 1

2.50 1.79 1.00 1.00


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• BRM - Additional Deep Space Concerns

Table adapted from Risk Rating Results Reference 1.

2.50 1.79 1.00 1.00

Near Earth Asteroid: An Operations Management and Bioastronautics Perspective• Overall Readiness

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Human Health Risks ISS Priority Moon Priority Mars Priority


1 AMC Autonomous Medical Care Performance 2.14 1.71 1.14 1.712 BHP Behavioral Health and Performance 1.75 2.25 1.25 1.50

3 BHP\SHFBehavioral Health, Performance & Space Human Factors (Cognitive) 1.75 2.25 1.25 1.50

4 Bone Bone Loss 2.75 2.75 2.25 2.005 Cardio Cardiovascular Alterations 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.006 Clinical Clinical Capabilities 2.14 1.71 1.14 1.717 EH Environmental Health 3.00 2.00 1.00 1.008 HHC Human Health and Countermeasures 2.50 2.56 2.06 1.949 I & I Immunology & Infection 2.33 2.67 2.00 2.00

10 Muscle Skeletal Muscle Alterations 2.50 3.00 2.00 2.0011 RH Radiation Health 2.25 1.75 1.00 1.0012 SM Sensory-Motor Adaptation 2.33 2.33 2.33 2.00

Deep Space and System Performance/Effeciency Risks1 AEMC Advanced Environmental Monitoring & Control 2.20 1.20 1.00 1.002 AEVA Advanced Extravehicular Activity 3.00 2.00 1.00 1.003 AFT Advanced Food Technology 2.00 3.00 1.00 1.004 AHST Advanced Human Support Technologies 2.50 1.79 1.00 1.005 ALS Advanced Life Support 3.00 2.00 1.00 1.006 SHFE Space Human Factors Engineering 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00

Human Health Risks 2.29 2.23 1.61 1.71Additonal Deep Space Concerns System Performance/Efficiency 2.50 1.79 1.00 1.00Overall readiness without considering cross cutting 2.395 2.01 1.31 1.35Human Health Risk Cross Cut 2.31 2.09 1.63 1.66System performance/Efficiency Cross Cut 2.50 1.79 1.00 1.00Overall Readiness considering cross cutting 2.403 1.94 1.32 1.33

• Overall Readiness


Risk Type ISS Priority Moon Priority Mars Priority


Cross cut Human Health RiskAMC Autonomous Medical Care Performance 2.14 1.71 1.14 1.71HHC Human Health and Countermeasures 2.50 2.56 2.06 1.94RH Radiation Health 2.25 1.75 1.00 1.00SM Sensory-Motor Adaptation 2.33 2.33 2.33 2.00

2.31 2.09 1.63 1.66

10Sample Mean Variance

2.31 2.09 1.63 1.66

Crosscutt priority System Performance/Efficiency Cross Cut priorityAHST Advanced Human Support Technologies 2.50 1.79 1.00 1.00

2.50 1.79 1.00 1.00

Two-Tail TestLower Critical Value -1.9822Upper Critical Value 1.9822p-Value 0.0839

Do not reject the null hypothesis

Intermediate CalculationsPopulation 1 Sample Degrees of Freedom 29Population 2 Sample Degrees of Freedom 79Total Degrees of Freedom 108Pooled Variance 0.0029Standard Error 0.0115Difference in Sample Means 0.0200t Test Statistic 1.7447

Pooled-Variance t Test for the Difference Between Two Means(assumes equal population variances)

DataHypothesized Difference 0Level of Significance 0.05

Population 1 SampleSample Size 30Sample Mean 1.35Sample Standard Deviation 0.055


Confidence Interval Estimate for the Difference Between Two Means

DataConfidence Level 95%

Intermediate CalculationsDegrees of Freedom 108t Value 1.9822Interval Half Width 0.0091

Confidence IntervalInterval Lower Limit -0.0171Interval Upper Limit 0.0011

• Summarized Data - Two Sample Pooled-Variance t Test for the Diff Between Two Means

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p-value > Level of Significance

t Test Stat is between Critical Values


• Conclusion Lunar Missions

– Higher Earned Value 2.01– Does not facilitate the 2033 Mars mission window

NEA in Long Duration - Crewed Lunar Orbit– Lower Earned Value 1.35– Facilitates the 2033 Mars mission window

Flexible Path Missions Paradigm – Extracts more science from every dollar spent– Smart Operations Management

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• Questions

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All image adapted from AGI STK. All models are available to STK users at http://www.agi.com/default.aspx


• References

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All image adapted from AGI STK. All models are available to STK users at http://www.agi.com/default.aspx

1 NASA, “Bioastronautics Roadmap: A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Space Exploration”,February 2005.2 ULA, “Atlas V Launch Services User’s Guide”, March 20103 Murphy, Marshal, “NASA managers evaluate yearlong deep space asteroid mission”,http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2013/09/nasa-evaluate-yearlong-asteroid-mission/, September 9,20134 Bergin, Chris, “Captured Asteroid mission – Redefining EM-2 for the bold challenge”,http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2013/04/captured-asteroid-mission-redefining-em-2-challenge/,April 11, 20135 Bergin, Chris, “ASC’s 3D Flash LIDAR camera selected for OSIRIS-REx asteroid mission”,http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2012/05/ascs-lidar-camera-osiris-rex-asteroid-mission/, May 13,20136 SpaceX, Reusability: The key to Making Human Life Multi-Planetary,http://www.spacex.com/news/2013/03/31/reusability-key-making-human-life-multi-planetary,March 31, 20137 NASA setting stage for asteroid mission, http://www.networkworld.com/community/blog/nasa-setting-stage-asteroid-mission8 NASA to examine commercial role in asteroid mission, http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1403/21armbaa/#.Uzs2gMfB32A9 Levine, Stephan, “Statistics for Managers: Using Excel 6th edition”, Pearson-Prentice Hall10 ISO 9000/9001 QMS, “Quality Management Principles”, ISO9000:2005, ISO9000:2009


• Backup Slides

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Pooled-Variance t Test for the Difference Between Two Means(assumes equal population variances)

DataHypothesized Difference 0Level of Significance 0.05



Intermediate CalculationsPopulation 1 Sample Degrees of Freedom 29 =B7-1Population 2 Sample Degrees of Freedom 79 =B11-1Total Degrees of Freedom 108 =B16+B17Pooled Variance 0.0029 =((B16*B9^2)+(B17*B13^2))/B18Standard Error 0.0115 =SQRT(B19*(1/B7+1/B11)Difference in Sample Means 0.0200 =B8-B12t Test Statistic 1.7447 =(B21-B4)/B20

Two-Tail TestLower Critical Value -1.9822 =-(T.INV.2T(B5, B18))Upper Critical Value 1.9822 =T.INV.2T(B5, B18)p-Value 0.0839 =T.DIST.2T(ABS(B22), B18)

Do not reject the null hypothesis=IF(B27<B5, "Reject the null hypothesis", "Do not reject the null

hypothesis")


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Confidence Interval Estimate for the Difference Between Two Means

DataConfidence Level 95%

Intermediate CalculationsDegrees of Freedom 108 =B16+B17t Value 1.9822 =T.INV.2T(1-F7, F10)Interval Half Width 0.0227 =(F11*SQRT(B19*(1/B7+1/B11)))

Confidence IntervalInterval Lower Limit -0.0027 =B21-F12Interval Upper Limit 0.0427 =B21+F12


• Yi = B0+B1X1i+B2X2i+B3X3i+…+BkXki+Ei • Yi = Predicted value of Y• B0 = Y intercept• B1 = slope of Y with variable X1i• B2 = slope of Y with variable X2i• B3 = slope of Y with variable X3i• Bk = slope of Y with variable Xki• Ei = random error in Y for observation i

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