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7-Aug-2013

Morning Matters

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WHAT’S INSIDE

On The Platter

Real Estate (Neutral (from Overweight): More Cautious In The Medium

Term

Although we remain bullish on the sector’s long-term outlook, a cyclical

slowdown will impact its medium-term performance. Hence, we cut our

2013 earnings growth to 18% from 25% previously. Also, we downgrade

the sector to NEUTRAL. The new TP is pegged at the long-term mean P/E

and we call for selective BUYs on LPN Development (LPN), Land And

Houses (LH), Quality Houses (QH) and Pruksa Real Estate (PS).

MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS

KBank turns down more mortgages

Government allows MCOT to join digital TV auctions in October

BoI aims for 1 trillion baht

Vibhavadi eyes new hospitals

Cool B2.5bn for Ichitan's tea factory

Samart in M Link deal

ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

India: India Names Rajan Central Bank Governor as Rupee Plunges

Japan: BOJ Seen Adding Stimulus by June as 2% Inflation Remains Elusive

Vietnam: Vietnam Bank Fix Starts With $474 Million Debt

Canada: Canada’s Trade Deficit Shrinks in June on Export Rebound

U.K.: U.K. June Industrial Output Rose as Manufacturing Surged

SET Intra-Day Graph

Source: Bloomberg

Key Market Indices (6 August 2013)

Value Chg % Chg % YTD

SET 1429.39 5.08 0.4% 2.7%

SET50 973.34 3.15 0.3% 3.0%

SET100 2137.83 8.59 0.4% 2.8%

Dow Jones 15518.74 -93.39 -0.6% 18.4%

S&P500 1697.37 -9.77 -0.6% 19.0%

Nasdaq 3665.77 -27.18 -0.7% 21.4%

FTSE 6604.21 -15.37 -0.2% 12.0%

FSSTI 3224.89 -16.90 -0.5% 1.8%

Hang Seng 21923.70 -298.31 -1.3% -3.2%

Nikkei 14091.39 -152.09 -1.1% 35.5%

KLCI 1784.64 -0.50 0.0% 5.7%

SHANGHAI SE 2060.50 10.02 0.5% -9.2%

JCI 4640.78 UNCHG UNCHG 7.5%

SET 5-yr avg 2012 2013F

PE (x) 14.1 16.1 13.6

P/BV (x) 1.8 2.3 2.2

Yield (%) 4.1 3.0 3.3

Key Statistics

SET Value by investor Type: Daily

Buy (THBm) Sell (THBm) Net (THBm)

Institution 1,886.31 771.23 1,115.08

Proprietary 6,627.01 5,690.99 936.01

Foreign 6,620.73 7,620.26 -999.53

Retail 13,451.17 14,502.73 -1,051.56

SET Value by investor Type

MTD (THBm) YTD (THBm) Institution 3,630.20 63,528.15

Proprietary 760.64 -4,503.58

Foreign -3,349.20 -79,435.43

Retail -1,041.64 20,410.86

SET50 Index Future

Long Short Net MTD YTD

Institution 9,451 10,249 -798 63 12,306

Foreign 3,306 3,222 84 1,401 -13,066

Local 16,067 15,353 714 -1,464 760

Foreign Fund Flows (USDm) Last MTD YTD YTD(%)

-31.8 -106.7 -2,613.2 -221.5

See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

Media Highlights

KBank turns down more mortgages

Kasikornbank (KBank) says its rejection rate for mortgages has recently increased to 30-35% of total applications from 25-30%.The jump was attributed to a higher consumer debt burden, particularly household debt. Executive vice-president Pakorn Partanapat said the country's fourth-largest lender by assets has set the maximum debt service ratio for mortgage applicants at 30% of monthly income."The rejection rate has risen to 30-35%, as customers' debt obligation has increased," he said. KBank, also Thailand's third-largest mortgage lender after Siam Commercial Bank and Krungthai Bank, requires consumer loan applicants to show minimum income of 15,000 baht a month. However, KBank's non-performing consumer loans remains on target at 1.5% of total loans thanks to the bank's strong risk management. (Bangkok Post) Government allows MCOT to join digital TV auctions in October

The government has approved in principle to allow MCOT Plc, the state-owned broadcaster of Modernine TV, to participate in digital TV auctions slated for October this year.MCOT will not be entitled to any privilege and will have to compete with private operators in the auctions in a transparent manner. Anek Permvongseni, MCOT's president, said the station planned to bid for variety channels both in standard and high definition. It will also bid for a network provider licence. MCOT is preparing 5 billion baht for digital TV transition. It is able to borrow up to 11 billion baht to finance the new investment.The company's human resources will also be trained to support the digital TV project. (Bangkok Post) BoI aims for 1 trillion baht

The Board of Investment (BoI) yesterday approved applications of 33 projects worth over 243 billion baht. The biggest project was that of Thai Airways International Plc, which will rent 40 charter flights worth 130 billion baht to expand its cargo business. Five wind energy projects worth 29 billion baht in total were also approved, with a combined generating capacity of 504 megawatts to be supplied to the Electrical Generating Authority of Thailand. Charoen Pokphand Food Plc will spend 2 billion baht to build two animal-feed plants in Khon Kaen and Surat Thani with capacities of 576,000 tonnes and 288,000 tonnes respectively. TPI Polene Plc, the country's third largest cement maker, will expand its ceramic tiles plant in Saraburi by 72,575 tonnes a year at a cost of 2.46 billion baht. (Bangkok Post) Vibhavadi eyes new hospitals

Vibhavadi Hospital, a private hospital in Bangkok, is embarking on a 3-billion-baht spending programme to acquire four hospitals and two golf clubs this year under a two-year plan.The move is expected to drive the company's revenue at double-digit growth this year, up from 1.8 billion baht in 2012.Chaisit Kupwiwat, deputy managing director of Vibhavadi Hospital, said the company plans to spend 1.2 billion baht building two medium-sized hospitals in Amata City Industrial Estate and Samut Sakhon province. Construction of the two hospitals is expected to be complete in 2014. The company also plans to take over two other medium-sized hospitals this year. Dr Chaisit said Vibhavadi Hospital, together with two of its sister companies Ramkhamhaeng Hospital and Synphaet General Hospital is also looking to acquire Legacy Golf Club in Bangkok and a club in Chiang Mai. (Bangkok Post) Cool B2.5bn for Ichitan's tea factory

Ichitan Group is building a 2.5-billion-baht plant for its Yen Yen herbal tea in Ayutthaya's Rojana Industrial Estate to support growing demand at home and in other Asean markets. Apart from the new factory, Ichitan plans to list on the Stock Exchange of Thailand on Dec 11, with proceeds used to fund the new facilities and repay debt. President Tan Passakornnatee said the factory is under construction and should be finished in the second half of next year. With the addition of new machines, the annual production capacity of Yen Yen herbal tea will double to 1 billion bottles to serve domestic demand. The herbal tea will be exported within Asean from next year's second quarter. (Bangkok Post) Samart in M Link deal

Samart Corporation is vying to acquire a stake in M Link Asia Corporation, the handset and mobile accessory retailer of the Wongsawat family, in a drive to expand its third-generation (3G) mobile service under the mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) provision. "We are in talks to buy into the company and are discussing the price with M Link's authorised persons," said Samart president Watchai Vilailuck. "The deal is expected to be concluded next week." He declined to specify the deal's value but said it would be a minority stake worth more than 500 million baht. Mr Watchai said M Link's 800 shops and nationwide distribution networks are a great way for Samart to accelerate expansion of its 3G mobile service on behalf of TOT Plc and increase sales of its own i-Mobile handsets. (Bangkok Post)


Economic Highlights

India: India Names Rajan Central Bank Governor as Rupee Plunges

Raghuram Rajan, who predicted the 2008 global financial crisis, was named the next governor of India’s central bank as the nation struggles to revive economic growth, support the rupee and damp inflation. Rajan, 50, a University of Chicago professor whose views on global risks once drew criticism from former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, said there’s no “magic wand” to fix India’s problems instantaneously. The ex-International Monetary Fund chief economist also said the Reserve Bank of India and the government will deal with the challenges. The immediate task is supporting the currency, which touched a record low yesterday and slumped about 13 percent against the dollar in the past six months. Rajan, the top adviser in India’s Finance Ministry since 2012, has signaled Asia’s No. 3 economy has the option of issuing foreign-currency sovereign bonds for the first time to garner dollars and bolster its ability to support the rupee.(Bloomberg) Japan: BOJ Seen Adding Stimulus by June as 2% Inflation Remains Elusive

The Bank of Japan will expand its record easing by June next year as inflation remains distant from its 2 percent target, according to a survey of economists by Bloomberg News. Twenty of 26 economists expect more stimulus in the next 10 months, while all said the bank would keep policy on hold at a two-day meeting starting today. Consumer prices excluding fresh food, the BOJ’s preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.4 percent in June. The view reflects skepticism over Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s message that the bank has taken all “necessary” steps to end 15 years of deflation. The BOJ in July raised its assessment of the economy for a record seventh straight month, though a planned sales-tax rise next year and a slowdown in China, Japan’s largest trading partner, threaten the revival.(Bloomberg)

Vietnam: Vietnam Bank Fix Starts With $474 Million Debt

Vietnam’s state asset management company, tasked with cleaning up bad loans, said it will acquire as much as 10 trillion dong ($474 million) of spoiled debt over the next two months as it considers possible foreign funding. Vietnam Asset Management Co. will issue special bonds to about 10 banks in exchange for as much as 10 trillion dong of non-performing loans in the next two months, Chief Executive Officer Nguyen Huu Thuy said in an interview in Hanoi yesterday. The lenders will be able to use the bonds to secure funding from the central bank, he said.(Bloomberg)

Canada: Canada’s Trade Deficit Shrinks in June on Export Rebound

Canada’s trade deficit narrowed in June as exports rebounded from a two-month slump, led by shipments of cars and aircraft. The nation’s trade gap was C$469 million ($453 million) during the month, down from a revised C$781 million in May, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the June deficit would be C$510 million, the median of 20 responses. Canada’s economy is being weighed down by what the Bank of Canada calls the slowest export recovery since World War II. The May trade gap was the 18th in a row and extends the longest streak of deficits in a quarter century. The agency today also revised the past three monthly merchandise trade balances to show wider deficits. The gap in May was initially reported at C$303 million.(Bloomberg)

U.K.: U.K. June Industrial Output Rose as Manufacturing Surged

U.K. industrial production rebounded more than economists forecast in June as manufacturing surged the most in a year, adding to signs of a strengthening recovery. Industrial output increased 1.1 percent from May after stagnating for three months, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists forecast a 0.7 percent increase, according to the median of 33 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Factory output jumped 1.9 percent, also exceeding economists’ forecasts. After expanding 0.6 percent in the second quarter, the U.K. economy is showing signs of gaining traction, with manufacturing and construction and services all strengthening in July and house-prices rising. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will tomorrow present the central bank’s new economic forecasts as well as officials’ assessment of using forward guidance.(Bloomberg)


Outperform

Current Target Upside/

Rec. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks

(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013F 2013F

ADVANC Buy 283.00 293.00 3.5 22.6 4.4

AOT Buy 181.50 188.00 3.6 24.0 1.7

BTS Trading Buy 8.05 10.20 26.7 37.1 6.7

INTUCH Trading Buy 88.50 104.00 17.5 18.8 4.8 .

PTT Buy 335.00 388.00 15.8 8.5 4.1

PTTGC Buy 69.25 82.10 18.6 9.3 4.9

Underperform

Current Target Upside/

Rec. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks

(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013F 2013F

AP Sell 5.70 11.30 14.0 6.5 3.3

KTB Buy 17.70 28.30 59.9 8.2 4.3

TCAP Neutral 35.00 41.00 17.1 4.6 3.8

TISCO Sell 38.00 41.00 7.9 7.1 6.7

AP Sell 5.70 11.30 14.0 6.5 3.3

Rank Symbol Rank Symbol6-Aug 5-Aug 2-Aug 1-Aug 31-Jul 6-Aug 5-Aug 2-Aug 1-Aug 31-Jul

1 BAY 129.8 198.0 (40.8) 156.6 74.8 1 SCC (278.1) (137.3) (201.6) 143.0 (12.7)

2 ADVANC 85.1 (30.1) (102.9) 262.8 201.8 2 KBANK (243.0) (249.5) (48.2) 90.9 722.9

3 BLA 54.8 6.7 (43.1) (20.0) 2.3 3 TRUE (86.0) (1.7) 160.7 (207.0) 37.0

4 BANPU 52.1 9.0 188.4 89.6 38.9 4 KTB (60.7) 55.7 (66.6) 26.6 20.0

5 BBL 47.1 (104.6) (313.5) (89.8) 266.5 5 INTUCH (56.6) 24.8 (88.2) 130.9 200.3

6 DELTA 32.9 19.6 28.7 15.2 18.1 6 PTTEP (45.2) (26.9) (103.2) 5.2 76.2

7 GLOW 19.6 7.1 (38.5) 7.9 (11.7) 7 CPF (44.7) 37.4 (56.8) 39.6 51.0

8 BIGC 18.6 19.6 14.4 16.7 57.5 8 SPALI (35.0) (28.0) (40.7) 32.9 (19.5)

9 EGCO 18.3 (3.6) 6.1 8.5 26.4 9 LH (32.0) 13.3 83.2 23.9 12.1

10 RATCH 16.8 10.7 6.3 (2.2) (11.6) 10 TOP (24.7) (28.0) (39.0) (14.2) 11.8

11 SCB 16.1 53.7 (178.3) 83.6 97.7 11 HMPRO (23.4) 39.3 (16.5) (29.2) (0.6)

12 TMB 15.7 (59.0) (133.4) (9.7) (2.9) 12 CK (21.4) 0.9 1.2 (0.0) (1.7)

13 AOT 15.5 (6.0) (38.6) 50.1 106.6 13 BGH (21.3) (11.3) (108.7) (4.7) 3.1

14 MAKRO 15.1 9.0 (2.4) (16.1) (7.4) 14 DCC (18.0) (7.8) (10.4) 0.0 0.6

15 ROBINS 13.9 21.9 23.3 14.5 2.0 15 DTAC (17.1) (69.2) (90.9) (36.1) (12.1)

16 TTW 13.6 3.2 1.9 (1.1) 1.6 16 QH (13.1) (2.5) 38.8 41.1 (17.7)

17 BEC 12.0 2.9 (2.4) 13.9 21.3 17 MBK (11.8) (2.8) (12.7) (8.4) (8.2)

18 IRPC 11.5 1.3 (0.1) (3.0) 11.9 18 STEC (9.4) 9.6 34.2 33.5 (19.8)

19 CPN 10.7 (16.8) (4.1) (11.1) (48.9) 19 PTTGC (8.8) (32.0) 34.9 227.1 (262.4)

20 JAS 9.4 15.1 3.7 (51.5) (19.3) 20 PTT (8.8) (2.6) (86.6) (105.6) (62.6)

% No.of Shars

Symbol BUY SELL Total NET Turnover Symbol In Hand

1 KBANK 308.8 551.8 860.7 (243.0) 33.0 1 TISCO-P 0.02 0.03 66.2

2 BBL 451.1 404.0 855.1 47.1 53.2 2 BBL 588.4 1,908.8 30.8

3 SCC 115.1 393.3 508.4 (278.1) 42.8 3 KBANK 658.6 2,393.3 27.5

4 SCB 175.6 159.5 335.1 16.1 20.3 4 INTUCH 773.8 3,206.4 24.1

5 PTT 155.7 164.5 320.1 (8.8) 23.4 5 SPALI 401.4 1,716.6 23.4

6 INTUCH 112.3 168.9 281.2 (56.6) 17.7 6 E-W1 74.5 347.0 21.5

7 PTTEP 115.8 161.0 276.8 (45.2) 20.6 7 THRE 681.5 3,512.5 19.4

8 ADVANC 179.4 94.3 273.7 85.1 10.8 8 GOLD-W1 74.2 392.1 18.9

9 BAY 192.8 62.9 255.7 129.8 26.3 9 LH 1,842.1 10,025.9 18.4

10 LH 88.4 120.4 208.8 (32.0) 40.2 10 NMG-W3 301.0 1,647.7 0.0

11 KTB 67.4 128.1 195.5 (60.7) 11.3 11 LPN 258.1 1,475.7 17.5

12 TRUE 45.2 131.2 176.4 (86.0) 5.5 12 TWFP 1.5 9.5 16.2

13 PTTGC 69.0 77.8 146.8 (8.8) 11.5 13 DTAC 374.3 2,367.8 15.8

14 BGH 56.6 77.9 134.5 (21.3) 16.4 14 TCAP 194.2 1,277.8 15.2

15 DTAC 48.7 65.8 114.5 (17.1) 28.0 15 AP 422.0 2,859.9 14.8

16 CPALL 48.8 56.3 105.1 (7.5) 4.6 16 THIP 1.2 8.0 14.5

17 CPF 26.3 71.0 97.2 (44.7) 14.0 17 BAY 863.3 6,074.1 14.2

18 HMPRO 35.8 59.2 95.0 (23.4) 4.3 18 PRANDA 56.3 406.7 13.9

19 BLA 70.0 15.2 85.2 54.8 35.2 19 LALIN 112.6 825.0 13.7

20 BANPU 65.7 13.6 79.4 52.1 22.3 20 GBX 138.6 1,089.1 12.7

Source: SET,RHB OSK

Capital Shares

Paid Up Capital % of Paid Up

--------------NVDR Most Active Values (Bt m)--------------- -----------NVDR Outstanding Share (m shares)-----------

7 August 2013

Top 20 Net SellNVDR Net Sell Value (Bt mn)

NVDR Daily Trading by Stock

Top 20 Net BuyNVDR Net Buy Value (Bt mn)

See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFATM

Platform 1

Sector Update, 7 August 2013

Real Estate Neutral (from Overweight)

More Cautious In The Medium Term

Macro

3

Risks

2

Growth

2

Value

2

Wanida Geisler 66 2862 9748

License No.17602

[email protected]

P/E (x) P/B (x) Yield (%)

Dec-13F Dec-13F Dec-13F

Ananda Development THB2.4 THB3.5 5.8 1.3 - TRADING BUY

Asian Property Development THB5.7 THB6.3 6.6 1.1 3.3 NEUTRAL

Bangkokland PCL THB1.5 THB2.2 67.5 0.7 2.1 BUY

Land and Houses THB10.8 THB14.0 18.0 3.4 4.7 BUY

LPN Development THB21.5 THB28.0 12.0 3.2 4.2 BUY

Property Perfect THB1.1 THB1.9 12.9 0.7 2.7 BUY

Pruksa Real Estate THB18.9 THB28.0 8.6 1.8 3.5 BUY

Quality Houses THB2.9 THB4.5 12.8 1.6 4.1 BUY

Sansiri PCL THB2.6 THB3.6 6.4 1.3 8.6 TRADING BUY

SC Asset Corp PCL THB3.9 THB3.0 11.5 1.4 3.3 TAKE PROFIT

Supalai PCL THB14.7 THB15.6 8.7 1.8 4.6 NEUTRAL

Company Name Price Target Rating

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Although we remain bullish on the sector’s long-term outlook, a cyclical slowdown will impact its medium-term performance. Hence, we cut our 2013 earnings growth to 18% from 25% previously. Also, we downgrade the sector to NEUTRAL. The new TP is pegged at the long-term mean P/E and we call for selective BUYs on LPN Development (LPN), Land And Houses (LH), Quality Houses (QH) and Pruksa Real Estate (PS).

The property sector index has now dipped to 16.0x P/E. This is near

the 13.0x-14.0x P/E levels registered during the 2011 floods. Meanwhile, the sector is facing several major concerns: i) a slowdown in the economy, ii) a tightening of lending measures, iii) the political uncertainty that has delayed the introduction of the Infrastructure Bill, iv) cost pressures, and v) potential delays in the completion of condominium (condo) projects as well as income recognition.

Developers are strong enough to weather the tough operating environment. Despite rumours of a new loan-to-value (LTV) ratio over

the past few months, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) has yet to announce any new measures. The country’s banks, however, have voluntarily imposed stricter leading measures, which has resulted in rejection rates rising to 7%-10% currently from the 5%-7% norm. Fortunately, this is still lower than the >12% seen during the US subprime crisis of 2008-2009. With healthy financial positions in terms of net margins, ROEs, ROAs and net gearing, as well as good internal controls, large listed developers can comfortably deal with a tougher market environment.

Trimming earnings forecasts to factor in concerns over the macro outlook. Presales for 1HCY13 were strong at THB108bn (+43% y-o-y).

Despite an expected slowdown in 2HCY13, full-year presales growth is likely to come in at 17% y-o-y. Earnings, on the other hand, are back-loaded, so they will gradually improve to peak in 4QCY13 from their 1QCY13 low. This is in line with the completion of new condo projects. We trim our full-year profit growth to 18% from the original forecast of 25%.

New TP is mainly pegged to long-term mean P/E. Earlier, our TP was

pegged to 14.0x-16.0x (+1 to +1.5SD) of its long-term mean P/E. Given the current cyclical slowdown, we peg our TP to a more conservative long-term mean P/E level. We prefer large developers with a resilient earnings outlook, strong brand names, low gearing levels and high yields such as LPN, LH, PS and QH (see the table below for more details).

Real Estate 7 August 2013


Property sector index dips near long-term mean P/E

The 10-year track record shows that the property stock index hit its historic low in 2008-2009 amid the US subprime crisis and Thailand’s own internal political problems. During that time, banks had strict lending measures in place while developers also delayed new launches. As a result, the industry experienced rising default rates and lower than expected presales and results.

To support the property sector, the Government launched property tax incentive programmes similar to the ones seen in 2001-2003. Thereafter, we saw the sector’s index plunging downwards in mid-2010 – amid the Red-Shirt street protests - and in end-2011, following the massive floods that affected large parts of the country.

This year, the property sector index surged by over +2SD to its long-term mean of 15.0x around April, before nose-diving to 16.0x P/E. This is quite close to the 13.0x-14.0x P/E range achieved in 2011 during the floods. The main concerns, for the time being, are: i) an economic slowdown, ii) a tightening of lending measures (along with rumours of a lower LTV rule, rising rejection rates and an asset bubble), iii) the political uncertainty that is causing a delay in the introduction of the Infrastructure Bill, iv) cost pressures, and v) potential delays in the completion of condo projects and income recognition.

Figure 1: Property sector index’s P/E movement Figure 2: Residential property index’s P/E movement

Source: Bloomberg, RHB estimates Source: Bloomberg, RHB estimates

*Index comprises AP, LH,LPN,PS,QH,SIRI, SC,SPALI

No asset bubble and developers are financially strong

From our discussions with major listed developers, most foresee a slowdown in 2HCY13 amid the weak economic outlook. Although no new LTV ratio has been announced by the BOT just yet, some banks have voluntarily imposed stricter lending measures in response to the central bank’s concerns about an asset bubble forming. A few banks have even reduced their LTVs for third and/or vacation homes and the rejection rate has recently risen to the current 7%-10% level from the 5%-7% norm. However, the developers we spoke to view this rate as “manageable” and is still lower than the >12% seen during the US subprime crisis of 2008-2009. We note that the large listed developers have an internal system that monitors the down payment levels such that, if any buyer stops paying his/her down payment for three months in a row, they will step in to solve the problem. Such a system in place can help to ensure a lower rejection rate at the time of transfer.

Figure 3 shows how healthy listed developers are now vis-à-vis 2011 and 2008-2009. On the macro side, while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to be revised downwards, it will still be better than what was seen during previous crises. Interest rates and inflation have also been well-controlled. Meanwhile, the industry’s average annual supply growth over the past decade stood at 5%, mainly from condos as people’s lifestyles change – evidenced by the reduction in members per household. Developers’ financial positions are strong with rising net margins, ROEs and ROAs, while total D/E ratio is still well-controlled at 1.5x. From all the data we have compiled, we share the same view as the BOT and property experts – like the Real Estate Information Centre, CB Richard Ellis and the Agency for Real Estate Affairs – that no asset bubble exists and that listed property developers remain financially strong and can comfortably weather the current environment.



Figure 1: Positive developments since the Asian Financial Crisis Asian Financial Crisis Post AFC Floods

Avg 1995-1997 Avg 1998-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

Favourable supply outlook

Total new completed houses (unit) 168,033 42,734 68,300 70,408 78,581 75,110 83,065 90,971 106,893 81,856 111,875 117,469

New completed built by developers (unit)

-Detached houses and townhouses 72,061 13,385 40,752 35,935 32,201 32,757 27,513 23,486 24,476 26,994 23,662 n.a.

-Condo 66,774 10,648 7,689 9,229 17,431 17,012 31,535 51,259 59,919 34,734 64,716 n.a.

Pre-AFC Post AFC

1996 1998 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

Demand-side (Bangkok)

Population per household 3.28 3.05 2.75 2.71 2.65 2.59 2.52 2.44 2.38 2.31 2.25 n.a.

Average income per household (THB/month) 21,550 26,054 29,843 36,658 39,020 42,380 48,951 n.a.

Pre-AFC Post AFC

1996 1997-2001 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q13

SETPROP-Solid balance sheet and

healthy performance

Net margins 4.00% n.a.* 12.15 9.88 16.42 8.11 6.86 8.48 10.91 7.90 11.56 16.14

ROE 1.70% n.a.* 14.02 12.30 22.25 10.15 7.95 10.09 12.55 8.98 14.76 16.33

ROA 3.40% n.a.* 8.25 7.56 6.58 6.93 6.32 7.51 8.52 6.31 8.56 9.34

D/E ratio 1.7x 4.32x 1.45 1.32 1.38 1.27 1.40 1.29 1.36 1.58 1.54 1.51

*The sector incurred loss 5 years in a row

between 1997-2001

Pre-AFC Post AFC

1996 1998 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

Strong macroeconomic environment

GDP growth average 5.90% -10.50% 6.00 4.50 5.20 4.90 2.50 -2.3 7.80 0.10 6.50 4.2-5.2

Average policy rate 10.50% 3.55-21.86% 1.44 2.84 4.81 3.72 3.00 1.4 1.45 3.00 2.94 2.58

Average headline inflation 5.90% 8.10% 2.70 4.50 4.70 2.30 5.40 -0.9 3.30 3.80 3.00 2.3-3.3

MLR rate 13-14% 12-15.5% 5.63 6.63 7.75 6.99 6.88 6.1 6.31 7.44 7.19 7.2

US Subprime Crisis

Source: NESDB, SETSMART, IMF, Real Estate Information Centre, RHB estimates

1HCY13 wrap-up

Exceptional pre-sales growth. Sectorial pre-sales hit its historic high of THB61bn in

1QCY13, declining to around THB47bn in 2QCY13 (+20% y-o-y; -22% q-o-q). 1HCY13 pre-sales came in at THB108bn, +43% y-o-y. Leading the pre-sales pack is Sansiri (TRADING BUY, SIRI TB, TP: THB3.60) with THB28.6bn (+57% y-o-y), followed by PS (BUY, PS TB, TP: THB28.00) with THB22.6bn (+78% y-o-y) and LPN (BUY, LPN TB, TP: THB28.00) with THB15.5bn (+41% y-o-y). Although we expect the momentum to slow in 2HCY13, full-year pre-sales are likely to grow 17% y-o-y.

Moderate earnings growth. Sectorial profit hit its low in 1QCY13 at THB4bn, but will

gradually improve and peak in 4QCY13 when many new condo projects are scheduled for completion. For 2QCY13, we estimate sectorial net profit to grow 50% y-o-y and 55% q-o-q to THB6.2bn, driving 1HCY13 earnings to THB10bn (+24.5% y-o-y). LPN will show the most impressive 1H profit growth y-o-y of 150%, followed by QH (BUY, QH TB, TP: THB4.50) with 110% and Supalai (NEUTRAL, SPALI TB, TP: THB15.60) of 47%.

Figure 4: Quarterly pre-sales Figure 5: Quarterly net profit

Source: Company Data, RHB estimates Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, RHB estimates



Figure 6: Estimated 2QCY13F net profit

(THBm) 2Q13F y-o-y% q-o-q% 1H13F y-o-y%

AP 532 (7.6) 138.6 755 (24.3)

LH 1,514 34.1 6.5 2,936 13.3

LPN 745 406.8 106.9 1,105 150.6

PS 1,316 31.3 70.2 2,089 27.8

QH 758 124.3 28.5 1,348 110.0

SIRI 673 49.6 n.a. 587 (25.8)

SPALI 363 19.4 (22.9) 834 46.8

SC 282 61.4 25.1 507 2.7

Sector 6,183 50.0 55.4 10,161 24.5

Source: RHB estimates

Trimming earnings forecast

Cutting the sector’s 2013 profit growth to 18% y-o-y. Originally, we estimated the

sector’s profit growth at 25%. However, given the current weak macro outlook and

rising rejection rate, we cut its profit growth to 18% y-o-y. Companies with the highest

earnings cuts are Property Perfect (BUY, PF TB, TP: THB1.90) with 19%, followed by

SIRI with 13% and SPALI with 11%. PF’s and SPALI’s pre-sales and results to date

have been weaker than expected, while SIRI, on the other hand, incurred a loss in

1QCY13 from massive marketing expenses incurred to boost pre-sale numbers. We

also trim earnings forecasts for condo developers like Ananda Development

(TRADING BUY, ANAN TB, TP: THB3.50) and LPN by around 7%-8% amid rising

rejection rates, while others – like LH (BUY, LH TB, TP: THB14.00), Asian Property

Development (NEUTRAL, AP TB, TP: THB6.30), PS and SC Asset Corp (TAKE

PROFIT, SC TB, TP: THB: 3.00) – may see a 1%-4% earnings cut. QH is the only

developer that is expected to see an increase in its earnings forecast by 6%,

following better-than-expected pre-sales and margins.

Risk of further earnings downgrade. This round of earnings cuts are based on the

lower GDP forecast of 4% and a rejection rate of around 10%. Had the pace of the

economic slowdown come faster than expected – amid the continuously weak

exports and delays in private and public spending – then another round of earnings

cuts are on the horizon. Moreover, since the majority of new condo projects are set

for completion and transfer to buyers in 4QCY13, prompt delivery is very crucial to

ensure that revenue recognition is on schedule. We note that the profitability of SIRI,

ANAN, SPALI and AP are heavily back loaded in 4QCY13, around the time when

their new condo projects are slated for completion.

Figure 7: Comparative Valuations

--Earning growth %--- ROE P/B (x) P/E (x) Yield (%)

13f 14f 13f 13f 13f 13f

ANAN n.a. 26.5 23.2% 1.3 5.8 0%

AP 4.5 12.5 18.2% 1.1 6.6 3%

BLAND 35.6 13.0 2.2% 0.7 32.0 2%

LH 6.6 17.3 19.2% 3.4 18.0 5%

LPN 19.1 21.8 28.9% 3.2 12.0 4%

PF 138.5 35.5 6.6% 0.7 12.9 3%

PS 24.7 14.0 22.1% 1.8 8.6 4%

QH (6.2) 6.5 13.9% 1.6 12.8 4%

SIRI 15.6 22.3 21.1% 1.3 6.4 8%

SC 13.6 30.3 11.5% 1.4 11.5 3%

SPALI 0.2 30.7 21.8% 1.8 8.7 5% Source: Bloomberg, RHB estimates



Large developers preferred

Top Picks are LPN, LH, QH and PS. Amid the uncertainties, we prefer large

developers with resilient earnings, established brands, low gearing and high dividend

yields. We also prefer companies that will generate good 2QCY13-3QCY13 results

upon the completion of new condo projects. Thus, LPN and LH are more defensive

stocks, while QH’s growth momentum remains strong with exceptionally good pre-

sales and rising gross margins – although net D/E is higher than 1.0x. PS is also

attractive, with above-average net profit growth and cheap valuations, trading at -1SD

to the long-term mean P/E.

Small developers face higher risks. SIRI, although a market leader in terms of pre-

sales, backlog and new launches, has a heightened risk profile, given its aggressive

expansion and high gearing. The share prices of other mid- to small-scale developers

with lesser known brands – like ANAN, SPALI, AP and SC – are also being bashed

down for their sluggish near-term earnings outlook and higher possibility of being hurt

by the economic slowdown.

Losing sight of asset plays. PF and Bangkok Land (BUY, BLAND TB, TP:

THB2.20), which had been highly recommended earlier this year, have also seen

their share prices heavily beaten down. Both are currently trading at more than 50%

below their NAV. However, we maintain our BUY rating for both counters for the long-

term.

New TP. Our previous TP was pegged to 14.0x-16.0x, or +1 to +1.5SD of its long-

term mean P/E. Given the current cyclical slowdown, we use average EPS for 2013

and 2014 pegged at lower P/E (long-term mean to +0.5SD) to come up with a new

12-month TP (see Figure 8).

Figure 8: Calculations for TPs

---EPS (THB)--- Implied price (THB) 12-mth TP Curr Price Upside Recc Remark

-1SD Mean +1SD 2013F 2014F 2013F 2014F (THB) (THB) (%)

ANAN n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.39 0.49 8.0

-30% to

avg

sector P/E 3.1 3.9 3.5 2.4 45%

Trading

BUY

Second tier developer, to turn profitable

w ith over THB1bn from 4QCY13

onw ards, volatile quarterly earnings

AP 5 10 14 0.85 0.96 7.0 -0.5SD 6.0 6.7 6.3 5.8 10% Neutral

Unexciting grow th and yield w ith delays in

construction

LH 12 16 20 0.60 0.70 16.0 Mean 12.9 14.6 14 11.0 25% BUY

Upside from asset monetisation, high yield,

strong brand name

LPN 6 11 16 1.79 2.18 14.0 +0.5SD 25.1 30.5 28 21.7 28% BUY

Secured earnings, consistent grow th,

high yield, strong brand name

PS 8 12 16 2.20 2.50 12.0 Mean 26.4 30.0 28 19.1 48% BUY

To get back to no.1 in terms of realised

sales in 2014. Brands are subpar to

leading developers. But sell-off seems

overdone.

QH 8 12 16 0.24 0.26 12.0 Mean 4.3 4.7 4.5 3.1 47% BUY

Upside from asset monetisation, high yield,

strong brand name, Strong core profit

turnaround

SC 2 8 14 0.32 0.42 8.0 Mean 2.6 3.4 3.0 4.1 -29%

Take

Profit

Second tier developer, slow high-end

market, delays in construction, high

multiples

SIRI 3 8 13 0.32 0.39 10.0 +0.5SD 3.2 3.9 3.6 2.7 31%

Trading

BUY

Market leader w ith high risk profile, strong

brand name, highest gearing, aggressive

expansion, negative cashflow

SPALI 3 8 13 1.69 2.21 8.0 Mean 13.5 17.7 15.6 15.6 0% Neutral

Too conservative, low gearing, outdated

brandname, pure conventional

construction technique

--------P/E (x)--------

P/E (x) for TP

Source: Bloomberg, RHB estimates



Figure 9: YTD share price high/low vs level of P/E

------------------P/E (x)----------------- EPS

2013F --Implied share price (THB)--- YTD

price Resistance YTD

price Support

-1SD Mean +1SD (THB) -1SD Mean +1SD high

(THB) Level low

(THB) Level

AP 5 10 14 0.85 4.3 8.5 11.9 10.7 +1SD 5.45 -0.5SD

LH 12 16 20 0.60 7.2 9.6 12.0 14.1 NAV 9.3 Mean

LPN 6 11 16 1.79 10.7 19.7 28.6 28 +1SD 18.1 Mean

PS 8 12 16 2.20 17.6 26.4 35.2 35.5 +1SD 17.1 -1SD

QH 8 12 16 0.24 1.9 2.9 3.8 4.9 NAV 2.16 -1SD

SC 2 8 14 0.32 0.6 2.6 4.5 7.25 +2.5SD 3.44 +0.5SD

SIRI 3 8 13 0.32 1.0 2.6 4.2 5.4 +2SD 2.36 Mean

SPALI 3 8 13 1.69 5.1 13.5 22.0 24 +1SD 14.8 Mean

Source: Bloomberg, RHB estimates

Trading range

Long-term mean P/E is a proven good support level. At their YTD lowest share

prices, the P/Es of LH, LPN, SIRI and SPALI have slipped below or close to their long-term means, while the P/Es of PS and QH have plunged deeper, close to -1SD level.

Resistance level at +1SD to long-term mean P/E. At their YTD highest share

prices, the P/Es of AP, LPN, PS and SPALI have surged near their +1SD level. Meanwhile, QH and LH saw their highest share prices close to their NAV level. Only SIRI and SC saw their highest P/Es surging to +2SD and +2.5SD level.

Figure 10: Price performance

1mth 3mth 6mth 1 yr YTD

ANAN

4.7 (36.9) (29.7) n/a (29.7)

AP

4.1 (25.9) (32.6) (14.9) (25.9)

BLAND

27.5 (13.5) (1.8) 106.2 35.8

LH

13.9 (8.7) (2.5) 46.5 17.9

LPN

3.1 2.2 6.4 35.7 29.6

PF

7.6 (23.0) (5.2) 14.4 21.0

PS

18.5 (24.8) (22.1) 26.7 3.3

QH

16.9 (21.7) (5.4) 83.8 48.6

SC

18.4 (29.6) (23.6) 64.0 (14.3)

SIRI

7.8 (26.2) (25.5) 27.7 (13.6)

SPALI

11.7 (9.0) (10.8) 3.4 2.8

Source: RHB estimates

7

RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Disclosure & Disclaimer All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but RHB does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. No part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. 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8

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Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2012

ADVANC BCP DRT IRPC NOBLE QH SC SYMC TOP AOT BECL EASTW KBANK PHOL RATCH SCB THAI TSTE ASIMAR BKI EGCO KK PS ROBINS SCC TIP TTA BAFS BMCL ERW KTB PSL RS SE-ED TIPCO

BANPU BTS GRAMMY LPN PTT SAMART SIM TISCO BAY CPN HEMRAJ MCOT PTTEP SAMTEL SIS TKT BBL CSL ICC NKI PTTGC SAT SNC TMB

2S BROOK DTAC HMPRO MACO OFM S&J SSSC THRE TSC ACAP BWG DTC HTC MAKRO OGC S&P STANLY TIC TSTH AF CENTEL ECL IFEC MBK OSIHI SABINA STEC TICON TTW AIT CFRESH EE INTUCH MBKET PAP SAMCO SUC TIW TUF AKR CGS EIC ITD MFC PDI SCCC SUSCO TK TVO AMATA CHOW ESSO IVL MFEC PE SCG SVI TLUXE UAC AP CIMBT FE JAS MINT PG SCSMG SYNTEC TMT UMI ASK CK FORTH KCE MODERN PHATRA*** SFP TASCO TNITY UP ASP CM GBX KGI MTI PJW SITHAI TCAP TNL UPOIC AYUD CPALL GC KSL NBC PM SMT TCP TOG UV BEC CPF GFPT L&E NCH PR SPALI TFD TPC VIBHA BFIT CSC GL LANNA NINE PRANDA SPCG TFI TRC VNT BH DCC GLOW LH NMG PRG SPI THANA TRT WACOAL BIGC DELTA GUNKUL LRH NSI PT SPPT THCOM TRU YUASA BJC DEMCO HANA LST OCC PYLON SSF THIP TRUE ZMICO *** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.

AEONTS BGT CMO GENCO JTS LHBANK NC PTL SGP SWC TPAC UT AFC BLA CNS GFM JUBILE LHK NNCL Q-CON SIAM SYNEX TPCORP VARO AGE BNC CNT GLOBAL JUTHA LIVE NTV QLT SIMAT TBSP TPIPL WAVE AH BOL CPL GOLD KASET LOXLEY OSK QTC SINGER TCB TPP WG AHC BROCK CRANE HFT KBS MAJOR PAE RASA SIRI TEAM TR WIN AI BSBM CSP HTECH KC MATCH PATO RCL SKR TF TTCL WORK AJ BTNC CSR HYDRO KDH MATI PB RICH SMIT TGCI TWFP

ALUCON BUI CTW IFS KIAT MBAX PICO ROJNA SMK THANI TYCN AMANAH CCET DRACO IHL KKC M-CHAI PL RPC SOLAR TKS UBIS APCO CEN EASON ILINK KTC MDX POST SAM SPC TMD UEC APCS CHUO EMC INET KWC MJD PPM SCBLIF SPG TMI UIC APRINT CI EPCO IRC KWH MK PREB SCP SSC TNH UMS ARIP CIG FNS IRCP KYE MOONG PRECHA SEAFCO SST TNPC UOBKH AS CIMBI*** FOCUS IT LALIN MPIC PRIN SENA STA TOPP UPF ASIA CITY FSS JMART LEE MSC PSAAP SF SVOA TPA US

*** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.

IOD (IOD Disclaimer)

การเปิดเผลผลการส ารวจของสมาคมส่งเสริมสถาบันกรรมการบรษิัทไทย (IOD) ในเรื่องการก ากับดูแลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นี้เป็นการด าเนินการตามนโยบายของส านักงานคณะกรรมการก ากับหลักทรัพย์และตลาดหลักทรัพย์ โดยการส ารวจของ IOD เป็นการส ารวจและประเมินจากข้อมูลของบรษัทจดทะเบียนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยและตลาดหลกัทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยต่อสาธารณะและเป็นข้อมูลที่ผูล้งทุนทั่วไปสามารถเข้าถงึได้ ดังนั้นผลส ารวจดังกล่าวจึงเป็นการน าเสนอในมุมมองของบุคคลภายนอกโดยไม่ได้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบัติและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมูลภายในในการประเมิน

อนึ่ง ผลการส ารวจดังกล่าว เป็นผลการส ารวจ ณ วนัที่ปรากฎในรายงานการก ากับดแูละกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเท่านั้น ดังนั้นผลการส ารวจจึงอาจเปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลังวันดังกล่าว ทัง้นี้บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี โอเอส เค จ ากัด (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยันหรือรับรองถึงความถูกต้องของผลการส ารวจดงักล่าวแต่อย่างใด

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