morgan stanley - annual latin america ceo conference*

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Page 1: Morgan Stanley - Annual Latin America CEO Conference*
Page 2: Morgan Stanley - Annual Latin America CEO Conference*

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Summary

Energy market overview

CPFL Energia – Highlights and Results

CPFL Energia – Evolution 4 years since IPO

Page 3: Morgan Stanley - Annual Latin America CEO Conference*

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Brazilian market has 64 distribution’s companies

Spreading proposes consolidation opportunities

Distribution Business – 2007

13,3%

12,1%

8,6%

7,4%

6,8%

5,7%

4,0%

3,7%

3,5%

34,8%

CPFL Energia

Brasiliana Energia

Cemig

Neoenergia

Copel

EdB

Celesc

Ashmore Energy

Energisa

Others

Distributors (#) 64

61Clients (million)

• The 5 largest groups have 50%of market-share

• State-owned companies: 34%

• Private Company: 66%

Market Breakdown

Distributed Energy (TWh) 376.9

Market Share1 (%)

1) ANEEL – Ref. 2Q07 annualized (Recalculation of CPFL’s participation)

Page 4: Morgan Stanley - Annual Latin America CEO Conference*

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Brazilian market has 1,695 hydroelectric plants. The public sector concentrates 70% of the assets

Generation Business – 1Q08

Hydroelectric plants (#) 1,695

108,852Installed Capacity (MW)

• The 6 largest groups have 50% of the market

• State-owned companies: 70%

• Private Company: 30%

Market Breakdown

10%

9%

9%

7%

7%

6%

6%

4%

4%

3%

2%

2%

31%

Chesf

Furnas

Eletronorte

Cesp

Itaipu

Cemig

Tractebel

Copel

Petrobrás

AES Tietê

Duke

CPFL Energia

Others

Market Share (%)

Source: Aneel – last information available Market breakdown: Acende Brasil

4th largest private generation company in Brazil

Page 5: Morgan Stanley - Annual Latin America CEO Conference*

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Summary

Energy market overview

CPFL Energia – Highlights and Results

CPFL Energia – Evolution 4 years since IPO

Page 6: Morgan Stanley - Annual Latin America CEO Conference*

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CPFL Energia – Highlights

• Brazilian’s largest player in distribution and commercializationbusinesses

• Energy market is concentrated in the most developed regions of Brazil (South/Southeast)

• CPFL is listed in the Novo Mercado in Bovespa and ADR level III in NYSE

• Differentiated Dividend Policy: payment of 50% of the net income on a semi-annual basis

• 100% hydraulic generation portfolio, with a strong growth in theinstalled capacity in the last few years

• Long term generation and distribution concessions

• 5 distribution companies’ acquisition, 9 SPP’s and RGE’s stake (33%), Foz do Chapecó HPP’s stake (11%) and Lajeado HPP’s stake (7%) inthe last 2 years, with a R$ 1.1 billion investment

• First company in the Brazilian electric sector to negotiate carbon credits, through a run-of-stream HPP

• Constitution of CPFL Bioenergia, for investments in energy generation from biomass

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• Operational efficiency focus

• Small distribution companies acquisition, strategically located

• Large distribution companies acquisition

• Cooperatives acquisition

• Private networks incorporation

Distribution

Generation

• Projects’ conclusion

• SPP’s repowering, construction and acquisition

• Energy cogeneration through biomass

• Green field projects - Auctions

Commercialization• Increasing in Value Added Services (VAS) and new products and services

• New opportunities - clients between 0.5 and 3.0 MW, supplied by cogeneration or SPP’s

CPFL Energia’s Investment Case join the current portfolio growth with acquisition opportunities

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Page 9: Morgan Stanley - Annual Latin America CEO Conference*

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6.74

9.808.32

5.695.825.787.76

6.665.85

CPFL Mococa CPFL SantaCruz

CPFL LestePaulista

CPFL Paulista CPFLPiratininga

CPFL Jaguari CPFL SulPaulista

RGE Consolidated '

Increasing scale gains through CPFL Energia’s management expertise

Brazilian Average2

FEC1 - Times

12.0

8.4

14.6

9.57.27.16.46.15.55.4

CPFL Mococa CPFL SantaCruz

CPFL LestePaulista

CPFL Paulista CPFLPiratininga

CPFL Jaguari CPFL SulPaulista

RGE Consolidated'

(1) Sep/2008 – Annualized values (2) Source: ANEEL. Last available figures – Aug/08

3Q08

DEC1 - Hours

DISTRIBUTION

17.0

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Strong growth in the installed capacity and long term concessions in the generation ventures

GENERATION

812

434

854 915 1,072

1,588 1,737 1,7382,174

472 525 571 800 861 862 1,082

2003 2004 2005 2006 20073 2008(e) 2009(e) 2010(e)

Serra da Mesa1

SPP’s CPFL Geração Monte Claro Barra Grande

14 de Julho

Castro Alves Foz do ChapecóCampos Novos

CPFL Sul2 Lajeado

SPP’s CPFL Jaguariúna3

2027 2036 2036 2036 20362035

2028 20362032

2015

Installed Capacity (MW)Assured Energy (MWmedium)Concession Term 48.2%

40.2%

9.3%

7.6%

25.1%

25.5%

(1) CPFL has the right of 51.54% of the Assured Energy until 2028 (2) Hydroelectric projects with installed capacity <= 1,000 kW are not eligible to concession(3) Among the 9 SPP’s of CPFL Jaguariúna, 6 are in the situation mentioned in note 2 Note: Includes expected two SPP’s repowering in 2009

Page 11: Morgan Stanley - Annual Latin America CEO Conference*

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SPP’s: Greenfield Projects

Partnership to studies and implementation of SPP’s

70 analysed projects and enrollment in ANEEL for 10 projects

• Low Internal Rate of Return• PPA’s already signed with unattractive prices• Impracticable environmental requirements

Feasible in the medium and long

term

Feasible in theshort term

Feasible Projects in the short term (up to 30 months)

GENERATION

Technical studies and enrollment in ANEEL

Installation License and

construction of the SPP’s

Basic projects and

environmental studies

(necessary for the previous

license)

ANEEL and environmental

agencies’approval

OK 2008/2009 2008/2009 24 months

Capacity: 75.6 MW

Estimated investment:

R$ 285 million

60 discarded projects

6

4

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• Contract signed: Aug 2008

• Construction of a sugar cane bagasse-fired thermoelectric generation plant

• Location: Pirassununga – SP

• Expected operations: April 2010

Baldin Project – CPFL Bioenergia’s 1st project

CPFL Energia is alert to the opportunities of business involving sugar cane biomass

CPFLInvestment:R$ 98 million

CPFL will have the right to 25 MW of energy exported during harvest season: 112 GWh/year

Energy supply contract

Amount: over R$ 500 millionContract period: 2009 to 2023

% of bioelectricity energy purchased in CPFL Brazil contracts

13%

10%

After the contractCurrent

Business ModelGENERATION COMMERCIALIZATION

• High pressure boilers• Condensing turbines• Back pressure turbines• Substation and transmission

CPFL invests in the generation-related

machinery…

…and receives the exceed

energy, for a certain period

Energy purchased from biomass source to sell in the free market

Sold 100%

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CPFL presents sales growth in the concession area and in the free market

33,076 31,235 27,66235,24531,778

8,8873,28811,230

9,5857,26336,54938,49836,364

46,47541,363

2004 2005 2006 2007 9M08

TUSDCAPTIVE

6,6598,9519,334

7,120

3,209

2004 2005 2006 2007 9M08

Concession Area Sales - GWh Free Market Sales (GWh)27.8%

178.9%

Note: excludes intercompany transactions (consolidation accounting basis), CCEE and generation sales (except to the free market)(1) Source: EPE (3Q08)

Concession Area Sales – GWh – 9M08

4,1% Southeast13,9%

4,5% Brazil14,3%

6,6%

South1

4,9%

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Page 16: Morgan Stanley - Annual Latin America CEO Conference*

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Conclusion of the 2nd Periodic Tariff Revision cycle for the Group’s distributors,with CPFL Paulista and RGE’s indexes released in April

R$ million

Note: Nominal values (1) Values for the 1st and 2nd cycle using the same methodology: 2nd cycle – exclude PIS/COFINS and R&D charges (2) With financial components(3) Includes adjustment of CPFL Piratininga’s Tariff Revision in Oct. 2008

22%4542316%430371Reintegration Quote

45%1,13210431%1,028783Reference Company

31%2,38117321%2,2081,823Parcel B1

25%4,83228418%4,5473,857Net RAB

28%10,42552821%9,8978,173Gross RAB

TotalAcquisitions (CPFL

Santa Cruz and CPFL Jaguariúna)

CPFL Paulista, CPFL Piratininga

and RGE

CPFL Paulista, CPFL Piratininga

and RGE

2nd Cycle 2007/0831st Cycle 20031

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May, 2006

32.69%

414

Aug, 2006

11%

9

Oct, 2006

99.9%

203

Apr, 2007

100%

412

AcquiredStake

Investment –Equity

(R$ million)

Asset

CPFL Energia supports investment politics aligned with the Group’s growth strategy

606 627 797

627418

606 6331,133

1,5511,425

2004 2005 2006 2007

Capex Total(1) Acquisitions(2)

Actual Investment (R$ million)

(1) Considers minority shareholder participation’s acquisitions (2) Considers CERFRA Cooperative assets acquisition Note: Hedge not included21

Page 22: Morgan Stanley - Annual Latin America CEO Conference*

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CPFL’s estimated Capex

Total Capex (R$ million)

519296

108

677828

782 815 783

890 837 789

22 6

1,1241,196

2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E

DistributionGeneration

391

570515 546 512

285 258 267 269 271

2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E

Expansion Maintenance

362

225

8117 6

157

7127 5 0,3

2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E

Debt Equity

CPFL Energia’s investment in the next 5 years: R$ 5 billion

Distribution - R$ million Generation - R$ million

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Summary

Energy market overview

CPFL Energia – Highlights and Results

CPFL Energia – Evolution 4 years since IPO

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CPFL Energia – Evolution 4 years since IPO

1.672 +106%

and

6

(1) Considers CPFL’s stake in HPPs

1

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Since the IPO, CPFL presents an excellent performance in the capital market

Share performance – Since the IPO1

1) Adjusted per dividends – until December 19th, 2008 (ON = R$ 32,68 and ADR = US$ 41.61)

Bovespa NYSE

Good support of the share price during the crisis:

• Defensive share

• Predominance of readjustments indexed by IGP-M, making

the share attractive in times of inflation acceleration

• Financial crisis has limited impact on the company's

performance (energy consumption is inelastic)• Without currency exposure (Debt with hedge; CVA) • Dividends

Dow Jones DJ BR 20 CPLIbovespa IEE CPFE3

68.5%

136.0%158.5%

-15.4%

79.0%

211.7%

Share performance – 20081

Bovespa NYSE

Ibovespa IEE CPFE3 Dow Jones DJ BR 20 CPL

-38.7%

-9.9%

4.7%

-35.3%

-53.1%

-20.8%

Performance CPFL1 vs. main indexes - 2008

+4.7% CPFE3

-36.8% ISE-39.5% IBX-100-40.9% IBX-50

-43.5% IGC-42.4% ITAG

1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08

Page 27: Morgan Stanley - Annual Latin America CEO Conference*