morgan stanley - 12th annual london-based latin american conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

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Page 1: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)
Page 2: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

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Energy market overview

CPFL Energia – Highlights and Results

Summary

Page 3: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

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13%

12%

8%

8%

7%

5%

5%

4%

4%

34%

CPFL Energia

Brasiliana Energia

Cemig

Neoenergia

Copel

Celesc

Energias do Brasil

Rede Energia

Ashmore Energy

Others

Market Share1 (%)

1) ANEEL – Ref. 1H08

Brazilian market has 64 distribution’s companies

Distribution Business – 2008

Distributors (#) 64

63Clients (million)

Distributed Energy (TWh) 393

Market Breakdown

• The 5 largest groups have 48%of market-share

• State-owned companies: 34%

• Private Company: 66%

Spreading proposes consolidation opportunities

Page 4: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

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Market Share1 (%)

1) ANEEL – Ref. 1H08

Brazilian market has 1,994 power plants. The public sector concentrates 70% of the assets

Generation Business – 2008

Hydroelectric plants (#) 1,994

111,540Installed Capacity (MW)

Market Breakdown

• The 6 largest groups have 50% of the market

• State-owned companies: 70%

• Private Company: 30%

4th largest private generation company in Brazil

10%

9%

9%

7%

7%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

2%

29%

Chesf

Furnas

Eletronorte

Cesp

Itaipu

Cemig

Tractebel

Petrobras

Copel

AES Tietê

Duke

CPFL Energia

Others

Page 5: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

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Energy market overview

CPFL Energia – Highlights and Results

Summary

Page 6: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

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• Brazilian’s largest player in distribution and commercializationbusinesses

• Energy market is concentrated in the most developed regions of Brazil (South/Southeast)

• CPFL is listed in the Bovespa’s Novo Mercado and NYSE’s ADR level III

• Differentiated Dividend Policy: payment of 50% of the net income on a semi-annual basis

• 100% hydraulic generation portfolio, with a strong growth in theinstalled capacity in the last few years

• Long term generation and distribution concessions

• 5 distribution companies’ acquisition, 9 SPP’s and RGE’s stake (33%), Foz do Chapecó HPP’s stake (11%) and Lajeado HPP’s stake (7%) inthe last 2 years, with a R$ 1.1 billion investment

• First company in the Brazilian electric sector to negotiate carbon credits, through a run-of-stream HPP

• Constitution of CPFL Bioenergia, for investments in energy generation from biomass

Highlights

Page 7: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

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Corporate Structure

1) Inclui participação da Camargo Correa S.A.

DIS

TRIB

UTI

ON

CO

MM

ERC

IALI

ZATI

ON

an

dV

AS

GEN

ERA

TIO

N100%

31.1% 12.7% 30.5%

100%

100%

99.99%

96.56%

90.15%

87.80%

89.75%

100%

100%

89.81%

100%

100%

99.95%

100%

100%

90.15%

100%

65%

25.01%

48.72%

51%

100%

59.93%

5.91%

25.7%1

Page 8: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

8 1) TUSD + Captive (Excludes CCEE sales) - LTM

The solidity achieved by CPFL reflects its operational efficiency and the quality of the markets in which operates

Distribution1 – 1H09

49,033¹Sales Concession Area (GWh)

6.4Costumers (million)

13.0Market Share (%)

208,226Concession Area (km²)

568Municipalities (#)

8Distribution Companies (#)

Page 9: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

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CPFL Energia: Industrial segment by activity

Industrial segment by activity: CPFL Energia’s concession area (GWh)

CPFL Energia – Characteristics of the revenues:

• Distribution: reduction in the demand of the customer is done only 180 days after the request

• Commercialization: average take or pay of the contractsin 2009 is 96%

• Generation: 100% long-term contracted energy, withoutpossibility of reduction

1) From Oct, 08 to Jun,09

2Q09Dec.08

1

Metallurgical: 20%

Food: 15%

Chemicals: 10%Textiles: 8%

Transportation equipment: 7%

Rubber: 6%

Non-metallic minerals: 6%

Paper and Cardboard: 5%

Others: 23% Metallurgical: 17%

Food: 16%

Chemicals: 12%Textiles: 8%

Transportation equipment: 6%

Rubber: 6%

Non-metallic minerals: 6%

Paper and Cardboard: 5%

Others: 23%

Page 10: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

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12.81% per yearNominal WACC

9.95% per yearReal WACC

16.71%Ke

14.97%Kd

3rd Cycle2nd Cycle

Apr/2013Apr/2008

Feb/2012Feb/2008

Apr/2013Apr/2008

Feb/2012Feb/2008

Feb/2012Feb/2008

Feb/2012Feb/2008

Feb/2012Feb/2008

Oct/2011Oct/20072nd Cycle – Regulatory Premise1

1) Source: ANEEL

Tariff Review Cycle - Overview

2nd Tariff Review Cycle

R$ 4,688 millionNet Regulatory Asset Base (RAB)

R$ 1,116 millionReferency Company (RC)

Page 11: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

11Campos Novos HPP Castro Alves HPP

The solidity achieved by CPFL reflects its operational efficiency and the quality of the markets in which operates

2,202Installed Capacity until 2010 (MW)

229Assured Energy (MWmedium)

465Installed Capacity (MW)

1HPP (#)

In operation

1TPP Biomass (#)

Under construction33SPP (#)

7HPP (#)864 (e)Assured Energy (MWmedium)

1,737 (e)Installed Capacity (MW)

Generation – 1H09

Page 12: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

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812

434

854 915 1,072

1,588 1,704 1,7372,202

472 525 571 800 862 864 1,093

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009(e) 2010(e)

Serra da Mesa1

SPP’s CPFL Geração Monte Claro Barra Grande

14 de Julho

Castro Alves Foz do ChapecóCampos Novos

CPFL Sul2 Lajeado

SPP’s CPFL Jaguariúna3

2027 2036 2036 2036 20362035

2028 20362032

2015

Installed Capacity (MW)Assurede Energy (MWmedium)Concession Term 48%

40%

9%

8%

27%

27%

After 2027

2013

2012

CPFL Energia Generation Business Contracts Expiration Date

58%

35%

7%

1) CPFL has the right of 51.54% of the Assurede Energy until 20282) Hydroelectric projects with installed capacity <= 1,000 kW are not eligible to concession 3) Among the 9 SPP’s, 6 of them are in the situation mentioned in note 2

Baldin Biomass

Strong growth in the installed capacity and long term concessions

Page 13: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

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• Contract signed: Aug 2008

• Construction of a sugar cane bagasse-fired thermoelectric generation plant

• Location: Pirassununga – SP

• Expected operations: April 2010

CPFLInvestment:R$ 98 million

CPFL will have the right to 24 MW of energy exported during

harvest season

Baldin Project – 1st Deal

1) Source: EPE2) Source: Cogem - SP

Expansion Bioelectricity² (MWmedium) Expansion of ethanol plants

Expansion into biomass, CPFL Bioenergia’s constitution and its first deal

151 new plants expected to be built inthe state of São Paulo by 20111

Page 14: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)
Page 15: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

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Energy Commercialization DeskCampinas - SP

86% 77% 73% 72% 74% 75%

14% 23% 27% 28% 26% 25%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009ACR - Regulated Contracting Ambience ACL - Free Contracting Ambience

The solidity achieved by CPFL reflects its operational efficiency and the quality of the markets in which operates

Captive and Free Market’s Sales Evolution in Brazil (% of TWh)

21Market Share (%)

54Inside Concession Area

18Outside Concession Area

72Free Costumers

Commercial expertise: competitive performance in free market sales and Value-Added Services – VAS

Commercialization – 1H09

1) LTM until Jun, 09

1

Page 16: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

1) Excludes intercompany transactions (consolidation accounting basis), CCEE and generation sales (except to the free market)2) Source: EPE

16

Page 17: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

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279

1.021

1.4041.641

1.276

572

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1H09

EBITDA (R$ million)1 Net Income (R$ million)1

1.349

2.8083.345

2.789

2.1201.681

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1H09

CAGR 4 years = 46.2%

EBITDA Breakdown²

CAGR 4 years = 13.7%

Commercializationand Services

10%

Distribution63%

Generation27%

1) 2007 and 2008 adjusted by the impact of Law 11,638 and PM 449/08 2) Reported values3) Excluding main non-recurring effects and items that affect Revenue, but don’t affect EBITDA

A CPFL apresentou forte crescimento de EBITDA e Lucro Líquidonos últimos anos

Consolidated EBITDAMargin of 28% andNet Margin of 12%3

Page 18: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

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Page 20: Morgan Stanley - 12th Annual London-based Latin American Conference (14 a 15-09-2009)

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CPFL Energia´s Estimated Capex

738 1.012

934

776 740

2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E

Biomass Generation¹ Hydraulic Generation Distribution

1) CPFL Bioenergia

Total: R$ 5 billion

Distribution – R$ million

384 424541

438363

354

588 483

337 377

2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013EMaintenance Expansion

2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013EEquity Debt

1.235 1.228

993

789 752

429

191 57 12 1268 24 2 1 0

738

1.012 934

776 740

497

215

5913 12

260

236 156

59 39

Generation – R$ million

Total Capex – R$ million

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