monthly report january 2018 - aljazira capital · monthly report january 2018 saudi arabia | saudi...

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Monthly Report January 2018

Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | December 2017

TASI Movement During December

TASI ended the month at 7,226.32 points, a 3.2% increase MoM compared to November 2017 .Total value

traded stood at SAR 87.41bn. Basic Materials and Real Estate Mgmt & Dev’t sectors accounted for 51.4%

of the total value traded. Capital Goods and Media were the best performing sectors, showing an increase

of 10.2%MoM and 8.8%MoM respectively. While Utilities and Food & Beverages sectors were the worst

performers showing a decline of 11.6% and 2.7% MoM respectively.

TASI started the month at 7003.97 points and closed at 7226.32 with an average daily value traded of SAR 4.16bn compared to 3.43bn in November.

TASI increased 222.3 points (up 3.2%MoM). Media and Retailing sectors showed the highest YTD increase of 51.1% and 14.7% respectively. On other hand, Pharma & Bio Tech and Consumer Services were the worst performing sectors recording a decline of 26.2% and 23.7% respectively.

Basic Materials and Real Estate were the highest traded sectors, accounting for 27.35% and 24.02%, respectively, of total value traded in December. On the other hand, Consumer Durables and Pharma were the lowest, accounting for 0.60% and 0.13% respectively.

Value Traded(bn)-RHS Closing Price - LHS

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

7,000

7,050

7,100

7,150

7,200

7,250

7,300

3-Dec-17 10-Dec-17 17-Dec-17 24-Dec-17 31-Dec-17

Sectors Performance

Value Traded per Sector (%)

MoM Performance YTD

TASI

Ener

gy

Mat

eria

ls

Capi

tal G

oods

Com

mer

cial

Ser

vice

Tran

spor

tati

on

Cons

umer

Dur

able

s

Cons

umer

Ser

vice

s

Med

ia

Reta

iling

Food

& S

tapl

es

Food

& B

ever

ages

Hea

lthc

are

Phar

ma

& B

io T

ech

Bank

s

Div

ersi

�ed

Fina

ncia

ls

Insu

ranc

e

Tele

com

Uti

litie

s

REIT

s

Real

Est

ate

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Bank

s

Mat

eria

ls

Real

Est

ate

Mgm

t & D

ev't

Insu

ranc

e

Cons

umer

Ser

vice

s

Food

& B

ever

ages

Capi

tal G

oods

Reta

iling

Tele

com

mun

icat

ion

Serv

ices

Ener

gy

Tran

spor

tatio

n

REIT

s

Hea

lth C

are

Equi

pmen

t & S

vc

Med

ia

Util

ities

Div

ersi

�ed

Fina

ncia

ls

Com

mer

cial

& P

rofe

ssio

nal S

vc

Food

& S

tapl

es R

etai

ling

Cons

umer

Dur

able

s & A

ppar

el

Phar

ma,

Bio

tech

& L

ife S

cien

ce

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital







Dar Al Arkan was the best performing stock in December recording an increase of 51.3%MoM followed by Yanbu Cement which showed increase of 33.9%MoM. On the other hand, Enaya was the worst performing stock recording a 13.9% decline, followed by Saudi Electric which showed a decline of 12.3%MoM.

On a Monthly basis, Qatar was the best performing index, rising 10.5%MoM. Dubai index was the worst performer recording a decline of 1.5% MoM. On A YTD basis, Qatar was the worst performing index, showed a decline of 18.3%YTD. On the other hand, Kuwait was the best performer, rising 11.5%YTD.

Buruj had the lowest P/E of 6.57x by the end of December, followed by Arabian Shield at 7.54x and AL-BABTAIN at 7.86x.

YTDMonthly

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

TASI Dubai (DFMGI) Abu dahbi Qatar Kuwait Bahrain Oman

Dar

Al A

rkan

-15.0%

-5.0%

5.0%

15.0%

25.0%

35.0%

45.0%

55.0%

Yanb

u ce

men

t

CHEM

ANO

L

Najra

n ce

men

t

ALJO

UF

Her

fy F

oods

Mou

was

at

AlH

okai

r

Saud

i Ele

ctric

.

Enay

a

Buru

j

AL-B

ABTA

IN

Gul

f Uni

on

BJAZ

Arab

ian

Shie

ld

saib

SAIC

O

Solid

arity

ARN

B

U C

A

Trad

e U

nion

ALTA

YYAR

WAL

AA

Saud

i Ele

ctric

.

Sam

ba

6.57

7.547.86 7.91 8.07 8.27 8.44 8.45 8.50 8.54

8.84 8.88 9.03 9.219.57

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

Top/Worst Performing Companies (December 2017)

GCC Market Performance

Companies with lowest PE

Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital







3-month and 6-month SAIBOR ended the month at 1.896% and 2.088% respectively. The 3-month and 6-month SAIBOR showed an increase of 4.3% and 1.2% respectively.

Saudi Arabia inflation rate stood at 0.1% at the end of November, an increase from (–0.2%) in October.

Deposits showed a decline of SAR 1.22bn (-0.1%MoM), while loans showed a decline of SAR 3.19bn(-0.2%MoM) by end of November.

Total loans showed a decline of (-1.0% YoY), the highest decline was for loans with maturity of less than 1 year which showed a decline of (-2.9%YoY), while loans of maturity above 3 year showed an increase of 2.5%YoY.

1.600

1.750

1.900

2.050

2.200

2.350

2.500

Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17

-0.90%

-0.40%

0.10%

0.60%

1.10%

1.60%

2.10%

2.60%

Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17

Changes In Deposits(LHS) Changes in Loans(LHS) ADR(RHS)

78%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

-3.5%

-2.0%

-0.5%

1.0%

2.5%

4.0%

5.5%

Nov-

12

Feb-

13

May-1

3

Aug-

13

Nov-

13

Feb-

14

May-1

4

Aug-

14

Nov-

14

Feb-

15

May-1

5

Aug-

15

Nov-

15

Feb-

16

May-1

6

Aug-

16

Nov-

16

Feb-

17

May-1

7

Aug-

17

Nov-

17

Less than 1 Year (%) -LHS 1 to 3 year (%) -LHS Above 3 year (%) -LHS Tota loan YoY Growth (%) -RHS

-5.0%

-2.0%

1.0%

4.0%

7.0%

10.0%

13.0%

16.0%

-15.0%

0.0%

15.0%

30.0%

45.0%

Nov-

14

Jan-

15

Mar-1

5

May-

15

Jul-1

5

Sep-

15

Nov-

15

Jan-

16

Mar-1

6

May-

16

Jul-1

6

Sep-

16

Nov-

16

Jan-

17

Mar-1

7

May-

17

Jul-1

7

Sep-

17

Nov-

17

Inflation Rate

SAIBOR

Deposits & loans

Change in Loans by Maturity (%)

Economic Data


Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital







Demand deposits showed an increase of SAR 3.3bn (0.3%MoM), while Time & Saving deposits showed a decrease of SAR 12.1bn (-2.7%MoM). On the other hand, government deposits showed a decline of (-2.7% MoM).

Point of Sales showed an increase of (2.4% MoM) and stood at SAR 16.8bn, with total number of transactions standing at 66.0mn (up 2.7%).

Demand Deposit (LHS) Time & Savings Deposits (LHS) Other Deposits (LHS) Government Deposits ( includes all types of deposits)(RHS)

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

-60,000

-35,000

-10,000

15,000

40,000

65,000

Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17

SAR

('000

)

SAR

(Milli

on)

Sales(bn) (LHS) No. of Transactions (mn) (RHS)

SAR

(Milli

on)

SAR

('000

)24.0

29.0

34.0

39.0

44.0

49.0

54.0

59.0

64.0

69.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

Nov-

14

Jan-

15

Mar-1

5

May-

15

Jul-1

5

Sep-

15

Nov-

15

Jan-

16

Mar-1

6

May-

16

Jul-1

6

Sep-

16

Nov-

16

Jan-

17

Mar-1

7

May-

17

Jul-1

7

Sep-

17

Nov-

17

Change in Demand - Time and Saving Deposits

POS (Point of Sale)







Brent and WTI showed an increase of 5.2%MoM and 5.3%MoM respectively, and closed at $66.87 and $60.42 respectively.

Gold and Silver showed an increase of 2.2%MoM and 3.0%MoM respectively, and closed the month at $1302.8 and $16.9 respectively.

Copper showed an increase of 8.7%MoM and ended the month at 3.301USD/lb.

Steel showed an increase of 5.2%MoM and ended the month at 662.0 USD/ton.

Spread(RHS) Brent(LHS) WTI(LHS)Dec-16 Dec-17Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

38

43

48

53

58

63

68

Changes in Gold Price(LHS) Changes in Silver Price(LHS) G/S Price (RHS)

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Dec-16 Dec-17Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17

USD/

Ib

Dec-16 Dec-17Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-172.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

USD/

Ton

Dec-16 Dec-17Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17570.0

580.0

590.0

600.0

610.0

620.0

630.0

640.0

650.0

660.0

670.0

* February 2018 contract for Brent, January 2018 contract for WTI ** HRC1 Index

Gold & Silver (% Monthly change)

Oil Prices (USD) *

Copper

Steel **

Commodities Prices









EUR/USD

Dollar Index

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104


USD/YUAN

USD/YEN

1.03

1.07

1.11

1.15

1.19

1.23


6.450

6.550

6.650

6.750

6.850

6.950



108

110

112

114

116

118

Exchange Rate

Dollar Index showed a decrease of (-1.0%MoM) by the end of December and stood at 92.12 points.

Euro appreciated against the Dollar by 0.8%MoM and stood at 1.201EUR/USD.

YUAN appreciated by 1.5%MoM against the Dollar and stood at 6.507YUAN/USD.

YEN depreciated by (0.1%MoM)against the Dollar and stood at 112.69YEN/USD.





Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory

Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068

Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37

RESE

ARC

H D

IVIS

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ARC

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DIV

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Disclaimer

AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business.

1. Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months.

2. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months.

3. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months.

4. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.

The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.

Head of Research

Talha Nazar +966 11 [email protected]

AnalystSultan Al Kadi, CAIA+966 11 [email protected]

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 [email protected]

Analyst

Waleed Al-jubayr+966 11 [email protected]

Analyst

Muhanad Al-Odan+966 11 [email protected]

General Manager – Brokerage Services &

sales

Alaa Al-Yousef+966 11 [email protected]

AGM-Head of international and institutional

brokerage

Luay Jawad Al-Motawa +966 11 [email protected]

AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment

Centers

Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi +966 12 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers

Central Region

Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa +966 11 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province

Abdullah Al-Rahit +966 16 3617547 [email protected]

monthly report january 2018 - aljazira capital · monthly report january 2018 saudi arabia | saudi...

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