monthly report november 2016 · monthly report november 2016 saudi arabia | saudi stock market |...

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Monthly Report November 2016

Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | December 2016

TASI Movement During November

TASI ended the month on 7000 points, a 16.4% rise MoM as compared to October 2016 .Total value traded stood at

SAR 118.99bn. Banking and Petrochemical sector accounted for almost 30% of the total value traded. The upturn was

attributed to the improvement in liquidity after government released payments to the contractors. Media and Cement

sectors were the best performing sectors, showing an increase of 66.3%MoM, 27.2%MoM respectively. While Energy was

the worst performer showing an increase of 6.4%MoM. TASI was the best performing market compared to GCC Markets

while Qatar was the worst performer showing a decline of 3.73%MoM.

TASI started the month on 6012.2 points and closed at 7000.2 with an average daily value traded of SAR 5.41bn compared to 2.89bn in October.

TASI gained 987.96 points in November (up 16.4MoM). On a YTD basis, TASI rebounded and ended 1.3% on November’s closing. Petrochemical and Energy sectors showed the highest YTD increase of 21.6% and 21.2% respectively. On other hand Hotel and Media were the worst performing sectors registering a decline of 48.0% and 26.8% respectively on a YTD basis.

Banking and Petrochemical were the highest traded sectors, accounting for 15.2% and 14.9% of total value traded. On the other hand, Energy and Media were the lowest, accounting for 0.7% and 1.9% respectively.

1-Nov-2016

3-Nov-2016

5-Nov-2016

7-Nov-2016

9-Nov-2016

11-Nov-2016

13-Nov-2016

15-Nov-2016

17-Nov-2016

19-Nov-2016

23-Nov-2016

25-Nov-2016

27-Nov-2016

29-Nov-2016

21-Nov-2016

Value Traded

5,400.005,600.005,800.006,000.006,200.006,400.006,600.006,800.007,000.007,200.00

0.00

20.00

Sectors Performance

Value Traded per Sector (%)

TASI Banks

Petchem

Cement

Retail

Energy Agriculture

Telecom

Insurance

Multi -Invest

Industrial Invest

Building

Real Estate

Transport

MoM Performance YTD-50.0%

-30.0%

-10.0%

10.0%

30.0%

50.0%

70.0%

90.0%

Media

Hotel

Banks

Petchem

CementRetail

Energy

Agricultu

re

Telecom

Insurance

Multi -Inve

st

Industrial In

vest

Building

Real Esta

te

Transport

Media Hotel

0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%

10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%

Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital







On a monthly basis, Sharqiya Dev. Co. was the best performing stock recording an increase of 80.4%MoM followed by SARCO which showed increase of 74.3% MoM. On other hand, BCI was the worst performer, showing a decline of 19.1%MoM.

On YTD basis, Dubai (DFMGI) market was the best performing index, rising 6.66% YTD, while Qatar showed decline of 4.89% YTD. On monthly basis, TASI showed highest increase of 13.43% MoM, while Qatar declined the most at 3.73% MoM.

Sagr Insurance recorded the lowest P/E of 4.29x by the end of November, followed by AlJazira Bank at 6.08x and Walaa Insurance at 7.01x.

TASI Dubai(DFMGI)

Abu Dhabi(ADSMI)

Qatar Kuwait Bahrain Oman

Monthly YTD-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

80.4%74.3% 73.9%

54.4% 54.0%

-3.4%

-19.1%-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

SharqiyaDev Co

SARCO SRMG SPPC mubarradNCB

BCI

Sagr Insurance

Aljazira Bank

Arabian Cement

MEPCO

Arab National Bank

Zamil Industrie

sWalaa

Yanbu CementBahri

Banque Saudi Fransi

ALTAYYAR

Al- Babtain

Arabian Shield

AlYAMAMAH STEEL

Alawwal Bank

4.29

6.087.01 7.47 7.47 7.59 7.64 7.89 7.96 8.14 8.17 8.19 8.25 8.34 8.54

0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00

Top/Worst Performing Companies (November 2016)

GCC Market Performance

Lowest companies by (P/E)

Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital







SAIBOR ended the month at 2.08% for 3 month and 2.26% for the 6 month. The SAIBOR started to decline after reaching the highest level on the 17th of October at 2.386% for 3 months and 2.466% for 6 months.

Inflation rate stood at 2.6% at the end of October a decline from 3.0% in September 2016.

Deposits showed an increase of SAR 27.1bn (1.7%MoM), moreover loans showed an increase of SAR 4.8bn (0.3%MoM) at end of October.

Total loans showed an increase of 6.9%YoY, highest increase was for loans with maturity of 1-3 years, which showed an increase of 19.5%YoY.

SAIBOR 3M

SAIBOR 6M

Jan-

2014

Mar-2

014

May-2

014

Jul-2

014

Sep-

2014

Nov-2

014

Jan-

2015

Mar-2

015

May-2

015

Jul-2

015

Sep-

2015

Nov-2

015

Jan-

2016

Mar-2

016

May-2

016

Jul-2

016

Sep-

2016

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Nov-2

016

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

Jan-2015 Apr-2015 Jul-2015 Oct-2015 Jan-2016 Apr-2016 Jul-2016 Oct-2016

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

Changes In Deposits(LHS) Changes in Loans(LHS) ADR(RHS)

-1%-2%

-3%-4%

0%1%

2%3%4%5%6%

Oct-1

1

Jan-

12

Apr-1

2

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Apr-1

3

Oct-1

2

Oct-1

3

Apr-1

6

Oct-1

6

Apr-1

5

Oct-1

5

Apr-1

4

Oct-1

4

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Less than 1 Year(LHS) 1 to 3 year (LHS) Above 3 year(LHS) Tota loan YoY Growth (%)(RHS)

Jan-

15

Mar-1

5Fe

b-15

May-1

5

May-1

4

Jul-1

4Ju

n-14

Sep-

14Au

g-14

Nov-1

4De

c-14

Oct-1

4

Apr-1

4

Apr-1

5

Jul-1

5Ju

n-15

Sep-

15Au

g-15

Nov-1

5De

c-15

Oct-1

5

Jan-

16

Mar-1

6Fe

b-16

May-1

6Ap

r-16

Jul-1

6Ju

n-16

Sep-

16Au

g-16

Oct-1

6

Inflation Rate

SAIBOR

Deposits & loans

Change in Loans by Maturity (%)

Economic Data


Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital







Demand deposits showed an increase of SAR 17.1bn (1.8%MoM), moreover Time & Saving deposits showed an increase of SAR 22.9bn (4.8%MoM). While government deposits showed a decline of 5.3%MoM.

Points of Sales showed an increase of 0.6%MoM and stood at SAR 14.3bn, with total transaction of 47.4mn

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

Demand Deposit (LHS) Time & Savings Deposits (LHS) Other Deposits (LHS) Government Deposits ( includes all types of deposits)(RHS)

Jul-1

0

Oct-1

0

Apr-1

0

Jan-

10

Jul-1

6

Oct-1

6

Apr-1

6

Jan-

16

Jul-1

5

Oct-1

5

Apr-1

5

Jan-

15

Jul-1

4

Oct-1

4

Apr-1

4

Jan-

14

Jul-1

1

Oct-1

1

Apr-1

1

Jan-

11

Jul-1

2

Oct-1

2

Apr-1

2

Jan-

12

Jul-1

3

Oct-1

3

Apr-1

3

Jan-

13

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

17.0

19.0

21.0

Sales(bn) (LHS) No. of Transactions (mn) (RHS)

Jun-

14

Oct-1

4

Aug-

14

Apr-1

4

Feb-

14

Oct-1

3

Dec-

13

Dec-

14

Jun-

15

Oct-1

5

Aug-

15

Apr-1

5

Feb-

15

Dec-

15

Jun-

16

Oct-1

6

Aug-

16

Apr-1

6

Feb-

16

Demand - Time and Saving Deposits

Points of Sales







Brent and WTI showed an increase of 4.5%MoM and 5.5%MoM respectively, and closed at $50.74 and $49.44 .

Gold and Silver showed a decline of 8.1%MoM and 7.8%MoM respectively , and closed the month at $1173.2 and $16.5

Copper showed an increase of 18.9%MoM and ended at $262.1

Steel showed an increase of 14.2%MoM and ended the month at $562

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Spread(RHS) Brent(LHS) WTI(LHS)

2-Ja

n-20

14

2-Ma

r-201

4

2-Ma

y-201

4

2-Ju

l-201

4

2-Se

p-20

14

2-No

v-201

4

2-Ja

n-20

15

2-Ma

r-201

5

2-Ma

y-201

5

2-Ju

l-201

5

2-Se

p-20

15

2-No

v-201

5

2-Ja

n-20

16

2-Ma

r-201

6

2-Ma

y-201

6

2-Ju

l-201

6

2-Se

p-20

16

2-No

v-201

6

Changes in Gold Price(LHS) Changes in Silver Price(LHS) G/S(RHS)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

1-Mar

-2014

1-Sep

-2014

1-Mar

-2015

1-Jun

-2015

1-Jun

-2014

1-Sep

-2015

1-Des

-2015

1-Des

-2014

1-Mar

-2013

1-Sep

-2013

1-Jun

-2013

1-Des

-2013

1-Mar

-2016

1-Jun

-2016

1-Sep

-2016

1-Mar

-2012

1-Sep

-2012

1-Jun

-2012

1-Des

-2012

1-Mar

-2011

1-Sep

-2011

1-Jun

-2011

1-Des

-2011

1-Des

-2010

150

200

250

300

350

10 Ja

n 14

10 Fe

b 14

10 M

ar 14

10 A

pr 14

10 M

ay 14

10 Ju

n 14

10 Ju

l 14

10 A

ug 14

10 S

ep 14

10 O

ct 14

10 N

ov 14

10 D

ec 14

10 Ja

n 15

10 Fe

b 15

10 M

ar 15

10 A

pr 15

10 M

ay 15

10 Ju

n 15

10 Ju

l 15

10 A

ug 15

10 S

ep 15

10 O

ct 15

10 N

ov 15

10 D

ec 15

10 Ja

n 15

10 Fe

b 16

10 M

ar 16

10 A

pr 15

10 M

ay 16

10 Ju

n 16

10 Ju

l 14

10 A

ug 16

10 S

ep 16

10 O

ct 16

10 N

ov 16

250

400

550

700

10 Fe

b 14

10 A

pr 14

10 Ju

n 14

10 A

ug 14

10 O

ct 14

10 D

ec 14

10 Fe

b 15

10 A

pr 15

10 Ju

n 15

10 A

ug 15

10 O

ct 15

10 D

ec 15

10 Fe

b 16

10 A

pr 15

10 Ju

n 16

10 A

ug 16

10 O

ct 16

10 D

ec 13

* HRC1 Index

Gold & Silver (% Monthly change)

Oil Prices

Copper

Steel*

Commodities Prices









EUR/USD

Dollar Index

1-Jan-16 1-Feb-16 1-Mar-16 1-Apr-16 1-May-16 1-Jun-16 1-Jul-16 1-Aug-16 1-Sep-16 1-Oct-16 1-Nov-1688

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

YUAN/USD

YEN/USD


1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1-Jan-16 1-Feb-16 1-Mar-16 1-Apr-16 1-May-16 1-Jun-16 1-Jul-16 1-Aug-16 1-Sep-16 1-Oct-16 1-Nov-166.35

6.55

6.75

6.95

7.15


100

105

110

115

120

125

Exchange Rate

Dollar Index increased by 3.1%MoM by the end of November and stood at 101.5 Point

Euro rose against the Dollar 3.6%MoM and stood at 1.059 EUR/USD.

YUAN depreciated by 1.7%MoM against the Dollar and stood at 6.89 YUAN/USD.

YEN depreciated by 9.2%MoM against the Dollar and stood at 114.46 YEN/USD.





Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory

Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068

Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37

RESE

ARC

H D

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RESE

ARC

H

DIV

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NRA

TIN

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RMIN

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BRO

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VEST

MEN

T CE

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Disclaimer

AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business.

1. Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months.

2. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months.

3. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months.

4. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.

The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.

Acting Head of Research

Talha Nazar +966 11 [email protected]

AnalystSultan Al Kadi+966 11 [email protected]

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 [email protected]

Analyst

Waleed Al-jubayr+966 11 [email protected]

Analyst

Muhanad Al-Odan+966 11 [email protected]

General Manager – Brokerage Services &

sales

Alaa Al-Yousef+966 11 [email protected]

AGM-Head of international and institutional

brokerage

Luay Jawad Al-Motawa +966 11 [email protected]

AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment

Centers

Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi +966 12 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers

Central Region

Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa +966 11 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province

Abdullah Al-Rahit +966 16 3617547 [email protected]

monthly report november 2016 · monthly report november 2016 saudi arabia | saudi stock market |...

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