monthly economic and financial developments economic and financial developments august 2015 1....
TRANSCRIPT
Monthly Economic and Financial DevelopmentsAugust 2015
In an effort to provide the public with more frequent information on its economic surveillanceactivities, the Central Bank has decided to release monthly reports on economic and financialsector developments in The Bahamas. The Bank monitors these conditions as part of its monetarypolicy mandate, to assess whether money and credit trends are sustainable relative to levels ofexternal reserves required to protect the value of the Bahamian dollar and, if not, the degree towhich credit policies ought to be adjusted. The main data source for this surveillance is financialinstitutions’ daily reports on foreign exchange transactions and weekly balance sheet statements.Therefore, monthly approximations may not coincide with calendar estimates reported in theCentral Bank’s quarterly reports. The Central Bank will release its “Monthly Economic andFinancial Developments” report on the Monday following its monthly Monetary Policy CommitteeMeeting.
Future Release Dates:2015: November 2, November 30, December 21.
Release Date: 30 September 2015
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Monthly Economic and Financial DevelopmentsAugust 2015
1. Domestic Economic Developments
Preliminary performance indicators suggest that the economy maintained its mildly positive growthmomentum during the review period, supported by the healthy performance of the long-stay segment of thetourist sector, alongside several varied-scale foreign direct investment projects which braced constructionactivity. On the prices front, although domestic inflation firmed over the past twelve months, the levelremained mild, due, in part, to the pass-through effects of lower global oil prices. In the monetary sector,broad liquidity improved; however, external reserves fell slightly, due to the seasonal hike in foreigncurrency demand.
Initial data from the Ministry of Tourism for the seven months of 2015 showed total visitor arrivalscontracting marginally, by 1.0% to 3.8 million, relative to 2014’s 2.9% expansion. However, in acontinuation of the strengthening observed since January, 2014, the high value-added air segment firmedby 5.0% to 0.9 million, outpacing the 2.8% gain recorded in the prior period. Meanwhile, last year’s 2.9%upturn in the dominant sea component was reversed to a 2.7% decline, for a total of 2.9 million visitors.
Disaggregating arrivals by port of entry, those to New Providence decreased by 9.5% to 2.0 million, vis-à-vis a 1.8% advance in the corresponding period of 2014. This outturn reflected a sharp 13.9% reduction insea passengers, which eclipsed the 1.2% gain in the air segment. In contrast, the number of visitors toGrand Bahama surged by 30.5% to 0.6 million, a rebound from the previous year’s 8.2% falloff, asincreases in both hotel and airlift capacity boosted air arrivals by 27.4%, and the dominant sea componentimproved by 31.1%. Buoyed by respective gains in air and sea passengers, of 9.5% and 1.3%, visitors tothe Family Islands rose further, by 2.3% to 1.2 million, following the year-earlier 10.1% expansion—aidedby the start-up of a new mid-sized resort operation.
Provisional hotel sector data from the Ministry of Tourism and the Bahamas Hotel and Tourism Association,for the January to July period, confirmed the sustained rebound in tourism output relative to the sameperiod of 2014. Total room revenue rose by 4.0%, based on increases in the average occupancy rate, of4.3 percentage points to 75.9%, and the average daily room rate (ADR), of 6.7% ($16.82) to $268.36.
Domestic inflation for the twelve months to June, as measured by the All Bahamas Retail Price Index,advanced to 1.41%, from 0.87% in the previous year. Underlying this outturn, average price gainsquickened for recreation & culture and health (by 6.7 and 5.5 percentage points to 7.0% each), foreducation (by 2.2 percentage points to 4.2%), alcohol beverages, tobacco & narcotics (by 1.9 percentagepoints to 5.9%), communication (by 1.8 percentage points to 2.5%) and food & non-alcoholic beverages (by1.6 percentage points to 3.0%). Similarly, average prices for furnishing, household equipment &maintenance, and housing, water, gas electricity & other fuels—the most heavily weighted component inthe index—were higher by 4.6% and 0.2%, a reversal from respective year-earlier contractions of 0.6% and0.7%. In contrast, inflation slowed for miscellaneous goods & services (by 3.8 percentage points to 0.2%),restaurant & hotels (by 0.2 percentage points to 2.8%) and clothing & footwear (by 0.2 percentage points to3.20%), and fell for transportation, by 1.9%, vis-à-vis a 3.8% advance in 2014.
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Amid the protracted decline in global oil prices over the last twelve months, average gasoline costsdecreased by 2.0% in August, on a monthly basis, and by 26.5% relative to the prior year, to $4.02 pergallon. The average cost of diesel also moved lower, by 2.7% to $4.75 per gallon, over the month and by6.3%, year-on-year. A similar outcome was observed for the domestic fuel charge, which decreased by1.5% over July’s rate and fell sharply by 36.4% vis-à-vis August 2014, to 15.49 cents per kilowatt hour(kWh).
2. International Developments
During the review period, the unfolding economic challenges in China—the world’s second largesteconomy—continued to restrain global growth, particularly in commodity driven markets. This outcomeoccurred alongside the positive growth secured in the United States’ economy and the ongoing tepidrecovery in the euro area.
Economic indicators in the United States were positive, with gains in consumer spending and exportsboosting real GDP growth, to 3.9% in the second quarter from 0.6% in the first three months of the year.Based on more recent economic indicators, a reduction in automobile demand led to retail sales growthslowing to 0.2% in August from 0.7% in the prior month, while industrial production fell by 0.4%, a reversalfrom a 0.9% expansion recorded in July. Conditions in the housing market were mixed over the reviewperiod; building starts fell by 3.0%, vis-à-vis a 4.1% decrease in the previous month; completions declinedby 6.1%, a reversal from a 3.9% hike a month ago; and the number of permits issued—a forward lookingindicator—firmed by 3.5%, compared to a 15.5% reduction in July. Amid the generally improving economicconditions, non-farm payrolls grew by an additional 173,000, aided by gains in the health care, socialassistance and financial sectors, which negated declines in manufacturing and mining. As a result, theunemployment rate fell by 20 basis points to 5.1% in August—the lowest rate since April 2008. Benefittingfrom a decrease in gasoline costs, inflation declined marginally, by 0.1%, following a similar increase in thepreceding month. In the monetary sector, the Federal Reserve kept its key policy rate within the 0-0.25%range, although indicating that it would consider raising rates if the improvement in economic conditionscontinued.
Economic activity in the European economies remained mildly positive over the review period. In theUnited Kingdom, increased purchases of housewares and other miscellaneous items secured a marginalrise in retail sales of 0.1% in July, vis-à-vis a 0.2% decline in the prior month. In contrast, the Index ofLeading Economic Indicators (LEI) fell by 0.3%, extending the previous month’s 0.2% falloff, reflecting asoftening in consumer confidence and lower order book volume, while reduced output of basic metalproducts and transport equipment caused a further 0.4% monthly decrease in industrial production. On theexternal front, lower exports of chemicals and cars, combined with increased imports of machinery &transport equipment contributed to a widening in the trade deficit, by £2.6 billion to £3.4 billion in July, overthe prior month. Despite the softness in the economy, the country’s unemployment rate steadied at 5.5% inthe three months ending July, as an additional 42,000 jobs were created, while average prices firmed by0.2% during the review month, vis-à-vis a 0.2% contraction in June, due to higher costs for furniture,household equipment and maintenance. In the euro area, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose by 0.3%,extending the 0.4% gain recorded in the previous month, led by improvements in new manufacturing ordersand the financial sector. In addition, increased production of energy, capital and durable consumer goodsunderpinned a 0.6% expansion in industrial output during July, a turnaround from a 0.3% contraction amonth earlier. Given the modest improvement in economic conditions, the region’s unemployment rate fellby 20 basis points to 10.9% in July—the lowest rate recorded since February, 2012. In the external sector,
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the trade surplus was higher by 19.5% at £31.4 billion, mainly due to a decline in energy-related imports of1.7% and a 1.4% rise in exports, while average consumer prices edged up by 0.1% in August, extendingthe prior month’s 0.2% advance. Given the prevailing economic conditions, the Bank of England and theEuropean Central Bank kept their highly accommodative monetary policy programmes in place.
In Asia, China’s unfolding economic slowdown continued to negatively impact the region. The country’sPurchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) declined by 0.3% in August over the prior month, primarily owing toreductions in the production and new orders indices, vis-à-vis a 0.4% contraction in the previous period.Nonetheless, buoyed by gains in manufacturing and mining and quarrying output, industrial productiongrew by 6.1% year-on-year, in line with July’s expansion, while retail sales growth accelerated by 30 basispoints to 10.8%, due in part to increased internet purchases. Reflecting higher food costs, the annualizedrate of increase in consumer prices advanced to 2.0% in August, from 1.6% a month earlier. In Japan, theLeading Economic Index fell slightly by 0.1% in July, on account of a reduction in residential starts and neworders for machinery and construction, compared to a 0.4% expansion in the prior period. On the externalside, the country’s trade deficit surged by ¥301.2 billion to ¥569.7 billion in August, as reduced demand forchemicals and electrical machinery resulted in an 11.7% contraction in overall exports, which outpaced thefuel-led 6.9% decline in imports. Occasioned by decreases in clothes and footwear prices, together withreduced fuel, light and water charges, consumer prices fell by 0.1% during the month, while theunemployment rate softened by 10 basis points to 3.2% at end-July. Faced with a plunging stock marketand lower growth prospects, the People’s Bank of China cut its key interest rates, by 25 basis points each,and reduced financial institutions’ reserve requirements by 50 basis points. However, Japan’s central bankmaintained its highly accommodative monetary policy stance.
Global equity market developments continued to be dominated by investors’ reaction to weakening growthprospects in China and a depreciation of the yuan, which contributed to the country’s stock market fallingby 12.5% in August—despite the provision of US$236 billion in liquidity support by the authorities. Thenegative sentiments spilled over into other major exchanges, including Japan’s Nikkei 225, which lost 8.2%of its value over the month, while Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC 40 and the United Kingdom’s FTSE 100posted respective declines of 9.3%, 8.5%, and 6.7%. Similarly, in the United States, the Dow JonesIndustrial Average and the S&P 500 indices narrowed by 7.0% and 6.3%, respectively.
In August, the United States dollar appreciated against most of the major currencies. Reflecting the effectsof the Chinese authorities’ attempts to widen the currency’s trading band, the dollar gained by 2.7% relativeto the Yuan, to CNY6.3759. The dollar also increased vis-à-vis the British pound, by 1.8% to £0.6517; theCanadian dollar, by 0.4% to CAD$1.3140, and the Swiss Franc, by 0.1% to CHF0.9673. In contrast, thedollar weakened relative to the Japanese Yen (by 2.2% to ¥121.23) and the euro (by 2.0% to €0.8920).
Despite the stabilization in OPEC’s production, to an average of 31.5 million barrels per day in August,relatively weak domestic demand caused crude oil prices to fall further, by 10.8% to $47.75 per barrel.While the price of silver decreased by 1.1% to $14.63 per troy ounce, the cost of gold rose by 3.6% to$1,134.81 per troy ounce, as investors increased their demand for relatively “safe” assets.
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3. Domestic Monetary TrendsAugust 2015 vs. 2014
Monetary trends featured a decline in excess reserves—a narrow measure of liquidity—by $15.3 million to$533.8 million, vis-à-vis 2014’s $54.3 million expansion, as banks utilised cash balances to increase theirholdings of Bahamas Government Treasury Notes (BGTNs). This development, along with a contraction inoutstanding advances, however, contributed to the expansion in the broader excess liquid assets, by $42.8million to $1,403.2 million, after a $54.3 million gain a year earlier.
Reflecting the traditional rise in foreign currency demand during the latter half of the year, external reservescontracted by $43.0 million to $921.2 million, moderately below last year’s $50.6 million drop. In theunderlying transactions, the Bank’s net foreign currency sale to the public sector decreased by $4.1 millionto $32.8 million, as lower prices contributed to a decline in fuel imports. In addition, the net sale tocommercial banks fell by $1.8 million at $12.7 million.
Growth in Bahamian dollar credit was sharply lower at $27.9 million from $93.2 million last year. Theimproving fiscal outturn was evidenced in a reduction in accretions to net claims on the Government, to$13.6 million from $76.4 million in 2014. With private sector demand still mild, gains in private sector credittapered to $16.4 million from $27.3 million; commercial loans decreased by $2.0 million, to reverse the priorperiod’s $6.3 million rise; and the growth in consumer loans and mortgages eased to $13.0 million and $5.4million, from the $14.9 million and $6.0 million in 2014. Further, the $2.2 million reduction in claims onpublic corporations extended last year’s $10.5 million contraction.
Banks’ credit quality indicators posted some deterioration during August, as private sector loan arrears roseby $10.1 million (0.8%) to $1,208.9 million and by 10 basis points to 20.1% of total loans. The increase indelinquencies was concentrated in the short-term, 31-90 day segment, which firmed by $13.8 million (4.8%)to $303.9 million, raising the corresponding loan ratio by 21 basis points to 5.1%. In contrast, non-performing loans fell by $3.7 million (0.4%) to $905.0 million and by 11 basis points to 15.0% of total privatesector loans.
A breakdown by loan type showed that the rise in total delinquencies was led by the consumer andmortgage segments, which grew by $11.6 million (3.9%) and by $11.1 million (1.7%) to $309.6 million and$671.9 million, respectively. For consumer loans, the outcome reflected gains in both short-term and non-performing loans, of $6.5 million (7.2%) and $5.1 million (2.5%), respectively, while the mortgagecomponent was associated with a $9.4 million (6.1%) expansion in 31-90 day arrears, alongside a moremuted $1.7 million (0.3%) gain in the non-performing segment. In contrast, commercial delinquenciesimproved by $12.7 million (5.3%) to $227.4 million, due to respective declines in the non-accrual and short-term components, of $10.6 million (5.4%) and $2.1 million (4.7%).
In line with the growth in arrears, banks increased their total provisions for loan losses by $6.5 million(1.3%) to $524.0 million. Consequently, the ratio of provisions to arrears expanded by 18 basis points to43.3% and the corresponding non-performing loan ratio was higher by 95 basis points at 57.9%. Totalwrite-offs for the month approximated $4.6 million, while recoveries amounted to $2.0 million.
The $6.3 million contraction in domestic foreign currency credit contrasted with a similar increase in theprior year. The decline in private sector credit, also at $6.3 million, compared with a marginal rise of $0.9million in 2014, due to a reduction in commercial & other loans. Credit to public corporations decreased by
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$3.7 million, to reverse the prior year’s $6.8 million gain; however, net claims on the Government firmed by$3.7 million, following a $1.4 million decline in 2014.
After posting a $20.6 million advance in 2014, total Bahamian dollar deposits contracted by $50.6 million.Demand and savings balances, which fell by $52.7 million and $11.2 million, reversed respective year-earlier increases of $24.8 million and $9.9 million. Conversely, fixed deposits grew by $13.3 million, aturnaround from the previous year’s $14.1 million reduction.
In interest rate developments, the weighted average deposit rate at banks declined by 30 basis points to1.44%, with the highest rate of 5.00% offered on fixed balances of over 12 months. Similarly, the weightedaverage loan rate fell by 86 basis points to 12.41%.
4. Outlook and Policy Implications
Near-term estimates for economic growth and employment have been tempered by the extended delaysrelating to the completion of the multi-billion dollar Baha Mar development—which prompted a creditdowngrade by one international agency. Nonetheless, expectations are that the mild growth noted duringthe first half of the year will continue to be supported over the remainder of 2015, by the ongoingstrengthening in several key tourism markets and the impact of a number of varied-scale foreign investmentprojects. Domestic inflation is poised to remain relatively mild, as the initial impact of the VAT levels off andglobal oil prices remain close to historic lows.
In the fiscal sector, further improvements in the overall deficit and corresponding debt indicators are likelyto be secured from the recent introduction of VAT, along with measures aimed at improving revenueadministration and restraining expenditure growth.
Given the environment of subdued credit demand—as households continue to deleverage—and persistenthigh loan arrears, credit growth is set to be moderate and liquidity levels robust. Further, bank capitallevels are expected to remain well above regulatory requirements, thereby mitigating any financial stabilityconcerns.
In the external sector, the country’s foreign currency reserves are likely to moderate further over thebalance of the year, amid the traditional increase in consumption-related foreign currency import demand—although reserve indicators should remain above international benchmarks.
Against this backdrop, the Bank will continue to monitor both international and domestic economicconditions, to assess the need for any adjustment in monetary policy in the near-term.
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Recent Monetary and Credit Statistics(B$ Millions)
AUGUSTValue Change Change YTD
2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 20151.0 LIQUIDITY & FOREIGN ASSETS 1.1 Excess Reserves 601.65 533.79 54.29 -15.30 199.94 40.52 1.2 Excess Liquid Assets 1,272.88 1,403.21 54.31 42.83 187.98 261.32 1.3 External Reserves 921.56 921.15 -50.57 -42.95 181.78 134.39 1.4 Bank’s Net Foreign Assets -545.26 -448.40 4.11 -11.03 141.75 -14.41 1.5 Usable Reserves 369.37 389.53 -15.70 -27.23 123.02 129.41
2.0 DOMESTIC CREDIT 2.1 Private Sector 6,503.41 6,294.20 28.14 10.14 -25.79 -58.76 a. B$ Credit 6,144.57 6,002.43 27.27 16.44 -0.06 -27.42 of which: Consumer Credit 2,139.81 2,162.50 14.91 13.00 27.84 11.84 Mortgages 3,149.11 3,072.22 6.03 5.39 -1.81 -26.84 Commercial and Other Loans B$ 855.64 767.71 6.33 -1.95 -26.09 -12.42 b. F/C Credit 358.84 291.77 0.87 -6.30 -25.73 -31.34 of which: Mortgages 131.56 84.37 0.03 0.80 -10.68 -17.85 Commercial and Other Loans F/C 227.28 207.40 0.84 -7.10 -15.05 -13.49 2.2 Central Government (net) 2,011.08 2,104.98 75.01 17.25 49.63 73.72 a. B$ Loans & Securities 2,111.91 2,349.42 -30.07 2.78 87.73 76.44 Less Deposits 164.65 255.87 -106.48 -10.81 -21.39 21.32 b. F/C Loans & Securities 66.00 12.37 0.00 0.88 -59.00 12.37 Less Deposits 2.17 0.93 1.40 -2.78 0.50 -6.23 2.3 Rest of Public Sector 368.50 333.30 -3.76 -5.85 -31.90 12.53 a. B$ Credit 96.97 96.70 -10.51 -2.18 -29.61 -0.52 b. F/C Credit 271.53 236.60 6.75 -3.67 -2.28 13.06 2.4 Total Domestic Credit 8,883.02 8,732.50 99.35 21.53 -9.23 27.46 a. B$ Domestic Credit 8,188.79 8,192.68 93.17 27.85 79.46 27.18 b. F/C Domestic Credit 694.23 539.82 6.19 -6.33 -88.68 0.28
3.0 DEPOSIT BASE 3.1 Demand Deposits 1,586.23 1,885.44 24.84 -52.74 151.51 106.57 a. Central Bank 7.60 17.87 -8.35 -11.16 -0.81 -5.69 b. Banks 1,578.62 1,867.57 33.19 -41.58 152.31 112.26 3.2 Savings Deposits 1,169.47 1,135.31 9.89 -11.18 58.18 67.49 3.3 Fixed Deposits 3,281.54 3,056.47 -14.13 13.28 -37.23 -82.62 3.4 Total B$ Deposits 6,037.24 6,077.21 20.60 -50.64 172.46 91.45 3.5 F/C Deposits of Residents 301.74 246.09 6.47 -13.93 50.76 4.04 3.6 M2 6,246.90 6,302.42 18.41 -51.29 169.23 85.24 3.7 External Reserves/M2 (%) 14.75 14.62 -0.86 -0.56 2.58 1.96 3.8 Reserves/Base Money (%) 86.27 90.24 -9.25 -2.83 6.28 10.04 3.9 External Reserves/Demand Liabilites (%) 83.45 86.64 0.65 -1.43 8.48 11.94
Value Year to Date Change2014 2015 2014 2015 Month YTD
4.0 FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRANSACTIONS 4.1 Central Bank Net Purchase/(Sale) -51.37 -45.50 173.16 128.66 5.87 -44.50 a. Net Purchase/(Sale) from/to Banks -14.48 -12.69 253.64 310.44 1.79 56.80 i. Sales to Banks 28.20 31.90 112.40 76.40 3.70 -36.00 ii. Purchases from Banks 13.72 19.22 366.04 386.84 5.49 20.80 b. Net Purchase/(Sale) from/to Others -36.89 -32.81 -80.48 -181.78 4.08 -101.30 i. Sales to Others 60.32 56.30 585.22 456.92 -4.02 -128.30 ii. Purchases from Others 23.43 23.49 504.74 275.14 0.06 -229.60 4.2 Banks Net Purchase/(Sale) -43.49 -19.47 223.12 283.17 24.02 60.05 a. Sales to Customers 345.27 315.68 2,444.28 2,670.25 -29.58 225.98 b. Purchases from Customers 301.77 296.21 2,667.39 2,953.42 -5.56 286.03 4.3 B$ Position (change) 24.70 0.005.0 EXCHANGE CONTROL SALES 5.1 Current Items ND ND ND ND ND ND of which Public Sector ND ND ND ND ND ND a. Nonoil Imports ND ND ND ND ND ND b. Oil Imports ND ND ND ND ND ND c. Travel ND ND ND ND ND ND d. Factor Income ND ND ND ND ND ND e. Transfers ND ND ND ND ND ND f. Other Current Items ND ND ND ND ND ND 5.2 Capital Items ND ND ND ND ND ND of which Public Sector ND ND ND ND ND ND 5.3 Bank Remittances ND ND ND ND ND ND
Sources: Research Department Weekly Brief Database and Banking Brief for the weeks ending:AUGUST 27, 2014 and SEPTEMBER 02, 2015 Exchange Control Sales figures are as at month end. Notes: 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 YTD change reflects change of current month over previous year end; for 4.0 and 5.0 change is over corresponding period of previous year.
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SELECTED MONEY AND CREDIT INDICATORS(B$ Millions)
Jun Jul Aug2015
500
550
600
650
700
20152014
Excess Reserves
Jun Jul Aug2015
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
20152014
Excess Liquid Assets
Jun Jul Aug2015
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
20152014
Central Govt. Credit (Net)
Jun Jul Aug2015
330
340
350
360
370
380
20152014
Rest of Public Sector Credit
Jun Jul Aug2015
6200
6300
6400
6500
6600
20152014
Private Sector Credit
Jun Jul Aug2015
6450
6500
6550
6600
6650
20152014
M3
Jun Jul Aug2015
850
900
950
1000
1050
20152014
External Reserves
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32014 2015
-400
-200
0
200
M3Domestic CreditExternal Reserves
Changes in Money, Credit & Ext. Reserves
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Selected International Statistics
A: Selected Macroeconomic Projections
(Annual % Change and % of labor force)
Real GDP Inflation Rate Unemployment 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015
Bahamas 1.3 2.3 1.2 2.3 15.7 12.0
United States 2.4 3.1 1.6 0.1 6.2 5.5
Euro-Area 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 11.6 11.1
Germany 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.2 5.0 4.9
Japan -0.1 1.0 2.7 1.0 3.6 3.7
China 7.4 6.8 2.0 1.2 4.1 4.1
United Kingdom 2.6 2.7 1.5 0.1 6.2 5.4
Canada 2.5 2.2 1.9 0.9 6.9 7.0
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2015, Department of Statistics
B: Official Interest Rates – Selected Countries (%)
With effect CBOB ECB (EU) Federal Reserve (US)
Bank of
England
from Bank
Rate
Refinancing
Rate
Primary Target
Credit Funds Repo Rate
Rate Rate
August 2013 4.50 0.50 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
September 2013 4.50 0.50 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
October 2013 4.50 0.50 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
November 2013 4.50 0.25 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
December 2013 4.50 0.25 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
January 2014 4.50 0.25 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
February 2014 4.50 0.25 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
March 2014 4.50 0.25 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
April 2014 4.50 0.25 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
May 2014 4.50 0.25 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
June 2014 4.50 0.15 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
July 2014 4.50 0.15 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
August 2014 4.50 0.15 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
September 2014 4.50 0.05 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
October 2014 4.50 0.05 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
November 2014 4.50 0.05 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
December 2014 4.50 0.05 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
January 2015 4.50 0.05 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
February 2015 4.50 0.05 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
March 2015 4.50 0.05 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
April 2015 4.50 0.05 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
May 2015 4.50 0.05 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
June 2015 4.50 0.05 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
July 2015 4.50 0.05 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
August 2015 4.50 0.05 0.75 0-0.25 0.50
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Selected International Statistics
D. Selected Commodity Prices ($)
Commodity August
2014
July
2015
August
2015
Mthly %
Change YTD %
Change
Gold / Ounce 1287.81 1095.82 1134.81 3.56 -4.18
Silver / Ounce 19.47 14.78 14.63 -1.07 -6.91
Oil / Barrel 102.43 53.52 47.75 -10.78 -16.71
Source: Bloomberg as of August 31, 2015
E. Equity Market Valuations – July 31, 2015 (% chg)
BISX DJIA
S&P
500 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX
Nikkei
225 SE
1 month 2.48 -6.57 -6.26 -6.70 -8.45 -9.28 -8.23 -12.49
3 month 4.81 -8.23 -6.42 -10.54 -7.09 -10.11 -8.13 -30.48
YTD 7.65 -7.27 -4.21 -4.85 8.90 4.63 8.25 -0.89
12-month 15.08 -3.34 -1.56 -8.38 6.21 8.33 22.47 44.60
Sources: Bloomberg and BISX
C. Selected Currencies
(Per United States Dollars)
Currency Aug-14 July-15 Aug-15 Mthly %
Change
YTD %
Change
12-Mth%
Change
Euro 0.7615 0.9104 0.8920 -2.02 7.91 17.13
Yen 104.09 123.90 121.23 -2.15 1.30 16.47
Pound 0.6025 0.6400 0.6517 1.82 1.52 8.17
Canadian $ 1.0879 1.3091 1.3140 0.37 13.09 20.78
Swiss Franc 0.9185 0.9663 0.9673 0.10 -2.73 5.31
Renminbi 6.1448 6.2077 6.3759 2.71 2.75 3.76
Source: Bloomberg as of August31, 2015
F: Short Term Deposit Rates in Selected Currencies (%)
USD GBP EUR
o/n 0.22 0.43 -0.14
1 Month 0.20 0.50 -0.09
3 Month 0.43 0.58 -0.08
6 Month 0.62 0.87 0.02
9 Month 0.77 0.90 0.05
1 year 0.96 1.06 0.12
Source: Bloomberg as of August 31, 2015
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959.
5094
7.60
964.
1195
9.25
954.
3294
9.59
935.
6411
.08
3.84
-2.4
2-1
1.90
16.5
0-4
.86
-4.9
2-4
.73
-13.
95
II.
Net
Dom
estic
Ass
ets
(A +
B +
C +
D)
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
A
. Net
Cre
dit t
o G
ov’t
( i +
ii +
iii -
iv)
397.
4939
7.49
397.
3940
4.89
404.
6839
8.14
398.
5240
0.87
414.
19-1
0.29
0.00
-0.1
07.
50-0
.21
-6.5
40.
382.
3513
.32
i)
Adv
ance
s13
4.66
134.
6613
4.66
134.
6613
4.66
134.
6613
4.66
134.
6613
4.66
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
ii)
Reg
iste
red
Stoc
k26
7.00
266.
7426
6.67
276.
2727
4.56
274.
4727
4.36
274.
3327
4.33
-0.4
0-0
.25
-0.0
79.
60-1
.70
-0.1
0-0
.10
-0.0
40.
00
iii)
Tre
asur
y B
ills
22.8
822
.88
22.8
822
.88
22.8
813
.65
13.6
513
.65
29.6
4-8
.29
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-9.2
40.
000.
0016
.00
iv)
Dep
osits
27.0
526
.79
26.8
228
.92
27.4
224
.63
24.1
521
.76
24.4
41.
61-0
.25
0.03
2.09
-1.4
9-2
.79
-0.4
8-2
.39
2.68
B
. Res
t of
Pub
lic S
ecto
r (N
et)
(i +
ii -
iii)
-14.
33-2
2.04
-19.
83-1
7.42
-25.
01-2
7.44
-30.
17-5
.76
-5.8
0-4
.18
-7.7
02.
212.
41-7
.59
-2.4
2-2
.74
24.4
1-0
.04
i)
BD
B L
oans
4.03
4.03
4.03
4.03
4.03
3.90
3.90
3.90
3.90
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.1
30.
000.
000.
00
ii)
BM
C B
onds
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
iii)
Dep
osits
18.3
626
.06
23.8
621
.44
29.0
431
.34
34.0
79.
669.
704.
187.
70-2
.21
-2.4
17.
592.
302.
74-2
4.41
0.04
C
. Loa
ns to
/Dep
osits
with
Ban
ks0.
000.
000.
000.
000.
000.
000.
000.
000.
000.
000.
000.
000.
000.
000.
000.
000.
000.
00
D
. Oth
er I
tem
s (N
et)*
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
III.
Mon
etar
y B
ase
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
A
. Cur
renc
y in
Cir
cula
tion
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
B
. Ban
k B
alan
ces
with
CB
OB
684.
6668
6.46
683.
5269
1.20
692.
0667
9.58
677.
4470
0.70
690.
51-1
3.22
1.81
-2.9
47.
670.
86-1
2.48
-2.1
423
.26
-10.
20
* In
clud
es c
apita
l, pr
ovis
ions
and
sur
plus
acc
ount
, fix
ed a
nd o
ther
ass
ets,
and
oth
er d
eman
d lia
bilit
ies
of B
ank
Page 11
2013
/201
420
14/2
015
2013
/201
420
14/2
015
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/201
420
14/2
015
2013
/201
420
14/2
015
2013
/201
420
14/2
015
2013
/201
420
14/2
015
2013
/201
420
14/2
015
2013
/201
420
14/2
015
2013
/201
420
14/2
015
2013
/201
420
14/2
015
2013
/201
420
14/2
015
2013
/201
420
14/2
015
2013
/201
420
14/2
015
Fisc
al O
pera
tions
P
(Ove
r pre
viou
s ye
ar)
1. G
over
nmen
t Rev
enue
& G
rant
s11
2.7
117.
810
4.1
94.5
88.5
104.
210
5.8
120.
310
3.8
89.5
146.
515
9.7
137.
414
3.9
112.
315
6.1
141.
618
8.4
129.
420
9.8
145.
314
9.4
1327
.415
33.6
%
cha
nge;
ove
r pre
viou
s mon
th8.
1%-4
.5%
-7.6
%-1
9.7%
-15.
03%
10.2
1%19
.64%
15.4
4%-1
.90%
-25.
57%
41.1
2%78
.40%
-6.2
5%-9
.88%
-18.
25%
8.49
%26
.07%
20.6
7%-8
.63%
11.3
5%12
.34%
-28.
77%
6.16
%15
.53%
2. I
mpo
rt/E
xcis
e D
utie
s44
.048
.449
.746
.942
.047
.845
.747
.849
.047
.847
.859
.146
.032
.545
.440
.848
.448
.247
.950
.452
.641
.651
8.5
511.
1
% c
hang
e; o
ver p
revi
ous m
onth
-9.3
%-2
6.8%
12.9
%0.
0%-1
5.42
%1.
85%
8.65
%0.
15%
7.38
%-0
.11%
-2.5
9%23
.75%
-3.5
9%-4
5.07
%-1
.41%
25.5
0%6.
66%
18.1
8%-1
.14%
4.65
%9.
87%
-17.
50%
-2.1
1%-1
.42%
3. R
ecur
rent
Exp
endi
ture
122.
913
2.1
112.
912
8.8
125.
012
7.1
145.
314
8.8
128.
815
2.8
129.
112
2.3
150.
915
8.8
112.
511
5.3
124.
713
8.8
154.
014
9.1
124.
414
9.1
1430
.515
23.2
%
cha
nge;
ove
r pre
viou
s mon
th-1
9.1%
-20.
5%-8
.2%
-2.5
%10
.71%
-1.3
5%16
.25%
17.0
7%-1
1.33
%2.
73%
0.23
%-1
9.96
%16
.88%
29.8
2%-2
5.48
%-2
7.39
%10
.89%
20.4
1%23
.52%
7.38
%-1
9.24
%0.
03%
2.62
%6.
48%
4. C
apita
l Exp
endi
ture
4.5
9.8
16.8
21.5
8.9
29.0
17.6
10.0
8.9
9.3
19.7
14.2
10.4
12.2
14.4
14.5
13.9
19.9
75.3
27.8
18.1
17.1
208.
518
5.4
%
cha
nge;
ove
r pre
viou
s mon
th-9
0.6%
-77.
7%27
3.5%
119.
6%-4
7.18
%35
.00%
98.5
7%-6
5.57
%-4
9.79
%-7
.15%
122.
35%
53.4
1%-4
7.05
%-1
4.31
%38
.52%
19.2
8%-3
.96%
36.8
2%44
3.24
%39
.94%
-75.
91%
-38.
45%
-1.0
1%-1
1.08
%
5. D
efic
it/S
urpl
us*
-15.
7-2
5.2
-28.
2-6
2.8
-52.
9-6
3.9
-62.
8-4
7.1
-42.
2-7
9.4
-7.3
18.2
-32.
8-3
3.2
-17.
823
.81.
217
.9-1
10.0
22.3
-10.
4-2
4.9
-379
.0-2
54.3
%
cha
nge;
ove
r pre
viou
s mon
th-8
4.5%
-75.
0%78
.9%
148.
8%87
.78%
1.72
%18
.73%
-26.
26%
-32.
72%
68.5
0%-8
2.70
%-1
22.9
6%34
9.47
%-2
82.3
8%-4
5.71
%-1
71.7
7%-1
06.9
1%-2
4.90
%-9
030.
28%
24.5
1%-9
0.52
%-2
11.7
9%-1
4.71
%-3
2.91
%
2014
2015
2014
2014
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2013
2014
2013
2014
2013
2014
2013
2014
2013
Deb
t P **
k6.
Tot
al d
IRE
CT
Deb
t5,
008.
75,
668.
65,
022.
75,
603.
65,
023.
65,
601.
95,
135.
55,
603.
15,
155.
85,
601.
95,
158.
45,
654.
55,
352.
35,
683.
75,
362.
35,
663.
74,
893.
05,
346.
24,
843.
95,
501.
94,
929.
95,
524.
04,
984.
05,
602.
34,
984.
0
% c
hang
e; o
ver p
revi
ous m
onth
0.5%
1.2%
0.3%
-1.1
%0.
0%0.
0%2.
2%0.
0%0.
4%0.
0%0.
1%0.
9%3.
8%0.
5%0.
2%-0
.4%
-8.8
%-5
.6%
-1.0
%2.
9%1.
8%0.
4%1.
1%1.
4%1.
1%
7. E
xter
nal D
ebt
1,48
8.0
1,60
4.0
1,49
2.0
1,60
4.0
1,49
2.9
1,60
2.2
1,48
9.8
1,60
3.5
1,49
0.2
1,61
2.2
1,48
7.8
1,60
9.8
1,48
7.7
1,60
9.4
1,48
7.7
1,60
9.4
1,16
6.5
1,48
6.6
1,16
3.3
1,58
7.2
1,17
0.2
1,58
9.3
1,18
8.4
1,59
2.6
1,18
8.4
%
cha
nge;
ove
r pre
viou
s mon
th25
.2%
0.9%
0.3%
0.0%
0.1%
-0.1
%-0
.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.5%
-0.2
%-0
.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-21.
6%-7
.6%
-0.3
%6.
8%0.
6%0.
1%1.
5%0.
2%1.
5%
8. I
nter
nal F
/C D
ebt
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
66.0
0.0
66.0
0.0
66.0
0.0
66.0
10.6
66.0
10.6
0.0
66.0
0.0
0.0
50.0
0.0
125.
00.
012
5.0
%
cha
nge;
ove
r pre
viou
s mon
th-1
00.0
%#D
IV/0
!#D
IV/0
!#D
IV/0
!#D
IV/0
!#D
IV/0
!#D
IV/0
!#D
IV/0
!0.
0%#D
IV/0
!0.
0%#D
IV/0
!0.
0%#D
IV/0
!0.
0%0.
0%-1
00.0
%52
2.1%
#DIV
/0!
-100
.0%
#DIV
/0!
#DIV
/0!
150.
0%#D
IV/0
!15
0.0%
9. B
aham
ian
Dol
lar D
ebt
3,52
0.7
4,06
4.7
3,53
0.7
3,99
9.7
3,53
0.7
3,99
9.7
3,57
9.7
3,99
9.7
3,59
9.7
3,98
9.7
3,60
4.7
4,04
4.7
3,79
8.7
4,06
3.7
3,80
8.7
4,04
3.7
3,72
6.5
3,79
3.7
3,68
0.7
3,91
4.7
3,70
9.7
3,93
4.7
3,67
0.7
4,00
9.7
3,67
0.7
%
cha
nge;
ove
r pre
viou
s mon
th-4
.1%
1.4%
0.3%
-1.6
%0.
0%0.
0%1.
4%0.
0%0.
6%-0
.3%
0.1%
1.4%
5.4%
0.5%
0.3%
-0.5
%-2
.2%
-6.2
%-1
.2%
3.2%
0.8%
0.5%
-1.1
%1.
9%-1
.1%
10. T
otal
Am
ortiz
atio
n27
5.4
15.4
10.0
65.0
1.1
1.7
14.1
3.8
10.0
10.0
2.4
2.4
25.4
65.4
10.0
20.0
30.9
16.1
79.1
69.1
0.0
0.0
52.4
2.4
52.4
%
cha
nge;
ove
r pre
viou
s mon
th42
5.6%
545.
2%-9
6.4%
320.
9%-8
9.2%
-97.
3%12
04.9
%11
9.3%
-29.
3%16
4.0%
-76.
1%-7
6.1%
962.
7%26
36.4
%-6
0.7%
-69.
4%20
9.1%
-19.
6%15
5.9%
329.
9%-1
00.0
%-1
00.0
%#D
IV/0
!#D
IV/0
!(0
.0)
(0.0
)(0
.0)
(0.0
)(0
.0)
(0.0
)(0
.0)
(0.0
)(0
.0)
(0.0
)(0
.0)
(0.0
)(0
.0)
(0.0
)(0
.0)
(0.0
)0.
0(0
.0)
0.0
(0.0
)0.
0(0
.0)
(0.0
)(0
.0)
(0.0
)P
ublic
Cor
p F/
C D
ebt
821.
4987
9.66
826.
6787
8.86
824.
7789
7.07
821.
7489
6.27
820.
4089
4.93
824.
1889
9.10
827.
2689
8.30
826.
4689
7.50
857.
6183
3.47
854.
0383
7.66
852.
6983
6.32
824.
4088
0.46
824.
4011
.Tot
al P
ublic
Sec
tor F
/C D
ebt
2,30
9.5
2,48
3.6
2,31
8.7
2,48
2.8
2,31
7.7
2,49
9.3
2,37
7.5
2,49
9.7
2,37
6.6
2,50
7.2
2,37
7.9
2,50
8.9
2,38
0.9
2,51
8.3
2,38
0.1
2,51
7.5
2,02
4.1
2,38
6.1
2,01
7.3
2,42
4.9
2,07
2.9
2,42
5.6
2,13
7.8
2,47
3.1
2,13
7.8
%
cha
nge;
ove
r pre
viou
s mon
th8.
0%2.
6%0.
4%0.
0%0.
0%0.
7%2.
6%0.
0%0.
0%0.
3%0.
1%0.
1%0.
1%0.
4%-0
.03%
-0.0
3%-1
5.0%
-5.2
%-1
5.5%
20.2
%-1
4.5%
17.0
%-1
1.9%
15.7
%-1
1.5%
2014
2015
Rea
l Sec
tor
Indi
cato
rs20
1420
1520
1420
1520
1420
1520
1420
1520
1420
1520
1420
1520
1420
1520
1420
1520
1420
1520
1420
1520
1420
1520
1420
15 (O
ver p
revi
ous
year
)12
. Ret
ail P
rice
Inde
x99
.810
2.1
100.
110
1.9
100.
410
2.0
100.
310
1.9
100.
310
1.9
100.
310
2.3
100.
410
0.0
100.
310
0.3
100.
099
.310
0.2
102.
0
% c
hang
e; o
ver p
revi
ous m
onth
0.75
%2.
79%
0.29
%-0
.18%
0.30
%0.
07%
-0.1
5%-0
.08%
0.0%
0.02
%0.
0%0.
40%
0.1%
-100
.0%
-0.4
%#D
IV/0
!0.
2%#D
IV/0
!0.
0%#D
IV/0
!-0
.3%
#DIV
/0!
-0.7
%#D
IV/0
!2.
03%
1.79
%
13. T
ouris
t arr
ival
s (0
00's
)55
5.2
570.
556
6.4
550.
263
7.1
651.
556
7.4
559.
548
1.9
469.
450
7.0
477.
651
3.4
496.
437
5.6
444.
454
2.0
633.
433
15.0
3278
.6
% c
hang
e; o
ver p
revi
ous y
ear
3.16
%2.
76%
6.22
%-2
.87%
-5.4
8%2.
27%
2.35
%-1
.40%
7.66
%-2
.61%
6.24
%-5
.80%
3.20
%-1
00.0
%4.
01%
-100
.0%
7.17
%-1
00.0
%5.
59%
-100
.0%
4.66
%-1
00.0
%#D
IV/0
!-1
00.0
%2.
80%
-1.1
0%
14. A
ir ar
rival
s (0
00's
)88
.610
1.7
107.
711
6.7
149.
015
7.6
131.
013
5.3
117.
711
7.6
130.
913
2.1
139.
511
9.8
58.8
79.0
95.8
125.
172
5.0
761.
0
% c
hang
e; o
ver p
revi
ous y
ear
2.88
%14
.80%
2.85
%8.
31%
-3.0
1%5.
75%
11.6
2%3.
26%
3.38
%-0
.15%
-0.2
2%0.
95%
4.37
%-1
00.0
%9.
23%
-100
.0%
10.5
6%-1
00.0
%12
.99%
-100
.0%
3.60
%-1
00.0
%#D
IV/0
!-1
00.0
%2.
55%
4.96
%
15. O
ccup
ied
Roo
m N
ight
s17
0.3
204.
118
2.3
189.
223
6.9
245.
020
6.2
220.
179
5.8
858.
4
% c
hang
e; o
ver p
revi
ous y
ear
#DIV
/0!
19.7
9%#D
IV/0
!3.
75%
#DIV
/0!
3.43
%#D
IV/0
!6.
75%
#DIV
/0!
#DIV
/0!
#DIV
/0!
#DIV
/0!
#DIV
/0!
#DIV
/0!
#DIV
/0!
#DIV
/0!
#DIV
/0!
#DIV
/0!
#DIV
/0!
#DIV
/0!
#DIV
/0!
#DIV
/0!
#DIV
/0!
#DIV
/0!
#DIV
/0!
7.86
%
16. R
es. M
ortg
age
Com
mitm
ents
-Val
ue o
f New
Con
st. &
Reh
ab. (
B$M
illio
ns)
28.6
312
.84
18.0
312
.92
9.60
28.6
312
.84
%
cha
nge;
ove
r pre
viou
s qtr
.22
.82%
33.7
4%-3
7.0%
-100
.0%
-28.
4%#D
IV/0
!-2
5.7%
#DIV
/0!
26.8
8%-5
5.13
% *
Incl
udes
Net
Len
ding
to P
ublic
Cor
pora
tions
** D
ebt f
igur
es in
clud
e C
entra
l Gov
ernm
ent o
nly,
unl
ess o
ther
wis
e in
dica
ted
p - p
rovi
sion
al
FIS
CA
L/R
EA
L S
EC
TO
R I
ND
ICA
TO
RS
(B$
MIL
LIO
NS)
(% c
hang
e re
pres
ents
cur
rent
mon
th fr
om p
revi
ous
mon
th)
JUL
AU
GSE
PO
CT
NO
VD
ECJA
NFE
BM
AR
APR
MA
YJU
N
YEA
R T
O D
ATE
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PO
CT
NO
VD
EC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PO
CT
NO
VD
EC
Page 12