report on economic and financial developments - bangko sentral
TRANSCRIPT
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Third Quarter 2011
7
Report on Economic and Financial Developments
A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
B. REAL SECTOR
AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND 8
LABOR AND EMPLOYMENT 11
C. FISCAL SECTOR
NATIONAL GOVERNMENT CASH OPERATIONS 12
D. MONETARY SECTOR
PRICES 14
DOMESTIC LIQUIDITY 18
DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES 19
MONETARY POLICY DEVELOPMENTS 20
E. FINANCIAL SECTOR
BANKING SYSTEM 22 BANKING POLICIES 28
CAPITAL MARKET REFORMS 29
STOCK MARKET 29
BOND MARKET 32
CREDIT RISK ASSESSMENT 35
PAYMENTS AND SETTLEMENTS SYSTEM 37
F. EXTERNAL SECTOR
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 39
INTERNATIONAL RESERVES 52
EXCHANGE RATE 53
EXTERNAL DEBT 57
FOREIGN INTEREST RATES 60
GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 64
G. FINANCIAL CONDITION OF THE BSP
BALANCE SHEET 67
INCOME STATEMENT 68
H. CHALLENGES AND FUTURE POLICY DIRECTIONS 69 ANNEX 73
STATISTICAL TABLES
1
Third Quarter 2011
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A. Key Economic Developments
The Philippine economy posted a lower‐than‐
expected growth during the review quarter,
reflecting mainly the slowdown of the global
economy. Unfavorable weather conditions and
high fuel prices likewise contributed to the
subdued growth of the economy during the
review period. The growth during the period was
led by the services sector on the production side
and consumer spending on the demand side. Also,
lending support to the domestic economy was the
low inflation environment during the review
quarter due mainly to lower food inflation. The
headline inflation for Q3 2011 and year‐to‐date,
using the 2000‐based CPI, were both within the
Government’s inflation target range of
3‐5 percent for 2011.
Market sentiment was upbeat during the early
part of the review quarter, boosted by the
Philippines’ ratings upgrade in June, stable
domestic inflation and increased investors’
demand for domestic mining stocks. However,
trading was dampened by concerns that the
global economy was heading into another
recession following the US credit rating
downgrade in August and worsening sovereign
debt crisis in the Euro area. The bearish tone of
the domestic financial market during the review
quarter, consistent with the sentiment toward its
regional peers, largely reflected these adverse
external developments. Meanwhile, the Philippine
banking system remained sound and robust
during the period, exhibiting steady asset growth,
a growing deposit base, ample liquidity, sustained
improvement in asset quality, and above‐standard
solvency ratios.
At the same time, the healthy external payments
position of the country—indicated by a continued
balance of payments (BOP) surplus and rising
international reserves—remained a source of
resilience for the economy. In the near term, the
country’s external payments position is expected
to continue to benefit from sustained OF
remittances, steady BPO earnings, and strong
portfolio inflows.
The Philippine economy posts modest growth.
Real GDP grew by an annual rate of 3.2 percent in
Q3 2011, slower than the 7.3 percent recorded in
the same quarter in 2010. Economic growth was
pulled down mainly by the contraction of the
industry sector, led by the construction subsector.
On the production side, GDP growth was led by
the services sector, while on the expenditure side,
expansion was led by capital formation, and
government final consumption expenditure.
Similarly, real GNI grew at a modest pace of 1.6
percent after growing by 6.9 percent in the same
period a year ago. The deceleration was due to
the contraction in the net primary income (NPI)
2
Third Quarter 2011
amid the global economic slowdown and
increasing uncertainties in the advanced
economies. The July‐September 2011 GDP growth
was below the government’s 2011 growth target
of 4.5‐5.5 percent for 2011.
Unemployment rises slightly. Based on the results
of the July 2011 Labor Force Survey (LFS) of the
National Statistics Office (NSO), the
unemployment rate rose slightly to 7.1 percent
during the review quarter relative to the year‐ago
level as the increase in the labor force outpaced
growth in employment. Employment growth
increased to 2.4 percent during the review period
from 2.1 percent in the same period a year ago,
with significant improvement in employment in
the services and industry sectors. Employment in
the agriculture, fishery and forestry (AFF) sector
registered a 1.2 percent decline, a reversal of the
3.2 percent growth in the same period last year.
This contraction was on the back of the occurrence
of strong typhoons in July 2011 which affected
adversely the agriculture sector.
NG cash operations yield a lower deficit. The
cash operations of the National Government (NG)
in Q3 2011 yielded a deficit of P35.8 billion. This
level was lower than the P63.1 billion deficit
incurred in the same period in 2010 and the
programmed deficit of P82.2 billion for the review
quarter. Total revenues increased by 10.8 percent
y‐o‐y to reach P335.4 billion, but were lower by
5.4 percent compared to the target revenue level
for Q3 2011 of P354.4 billion due mainly to lower
collections of import duties by the Bureau of
Customs (BOC). Meanwhile, total expenditures
amounted to P371.2 billion in Q3 2011,
significantly lower than the P436.6 billion
programmed expenditures for the quarter due
mainly to a lower spending outturn in
infrastructure and other capital outlays as well as
reduced interest payments. However, the Q3
2011 expenditure level was 1.5 percent higher
than the expenditures incurred a year ago on
account of a higher allotment to local government
units (LGUs).
Headline inflation decelerates. Inflation for
Q3 2011 of 4.4 percent, using the 2000‐based CPI
basket, was slightly lower than the quarter‐ago
rate of 4.5 percent, but higher than the 3.9
percent rate posted a year ago. The slowdown in
headline inflation during the review quarter was
attributed mainly to lower inflation for food
items, owing to lower prices of sugar. Meanwhile,
non‐food inflation inched up to 5.0 percent during
the review quarter from 4.9 percent in the
previous quarter on account of faster price
increases for fuel, and transportation and
communication services. Core inflation, which
excludes some food and energy items to measure
generalized price pressures, was unchanged at 3.6
percent in Q3 2011 from the previous quarter’s
level. On a year‐to‐date basis, the average
inflation rate of 4.3 percent, using the 2000‐based
basket, remains within the Government's inflation
target range of 3‐5 percent for 2011.
3
Third Quarter 2011
Domestic liquidity sustains growth, albeit at a
slower pace. Demand for money grew by
7.4 percent y‐o‐y as of end‐September 2011,
lower than the 11.4 percent growth posted as of
end‐June 2011. Growth in domestic liquidity was
fueled by the expansion in net foreign assets
(NFA) on account of sustained foreign exchange
inflows from overseas Filipino remittances and
portfolio investments. Meanwhile, net domestic
assets (NDA) as of end‐September declined by
15.0 percent compared to its September 2010
level on the back of faster expansion of the net
other items account (which includes revaluation,
and capital and reserve account as well as
placements in special deposit account).
Domestic interest rates steady. Treasury bill rates
during the review quarter remained broadly
steady compared to Q2 2011 levels. Compared to
the previous year, T‐bill rates were lower
attributed mainly to strong demand and ample
liquidity, reflecting investors’ preference for
short‐term and risk‐free assets such as T‐bills.
Likewise, the yields for all maturities in the
secondary market decreased in Q3 2011
compared to the previous quarter, largely on the
back of ample market liquidity and upbeat
confidence in the domestic economy. The
manageable inflation environment in Q3 2011
enabled the MB to keep the policy rates steady.
However, it raised the reserve requirement on
deposits and deposit substitutes of all banks and
non‐banks with quasi‐banking functions by
1 percentage point to 21 percent effective
5 August 2011. The decision to increase the
reserve requirement was a preemptive move to
better manage domestic liquidity expansion
fueled by strong growth in bank lending and
sustained foreign exchange inflows.
The banking system sustains resilience. The
Philippine banking system remained resilient on
the back of a growing deposit base, improved
asset quality, ample liquidity and above‐standard
solvency ratios. The steady growth in deposits
reflected continued depositor confidence in the
banking system, while bank lending continued to
be underpinned by strong domestic demand and
the decline in NPL ratios. Banks’ prudent lending
regulations have helped bring back the NPL ratio
to pre‐Asian crisis levels. Moreover, the banking
system remained adequately capitalized, with
capital adequacy ratios exceeding the prescribed
BSP and international levels. The sustained
strength of the banking system’s CARs resulted
from the higher growth rate of qualifying capital
vis‐à‐vis that of risk weighted assets.
The stock market dips slightly on mixed trends.
Trading in the Philippine stock market ended flat
in Q3 2011, with the Philippine Stock Exchange
index (PSEi) declining by a minimal 0.03 percent
or 1.2 index points from the previous quarter’s
level to average 4,283.9 index points. Concerns
over a possible double‐dip recession of the global
economy following the US credit rating
downgrade in August and deepening European
debt crisis tempered the positive market
4
Third Quarter 2011
sentiment early in the quarter generated by the
Philippines’ ratings upgrade in June, stable
domestic inflation and increased investors’
demand for domestic mining stocks.
Local‐currency bond issuances increase. Local
currency (LCY) bonds issued by the public and
private sectors increased by 48.4 percent, y‐o‐y to
reach P460.3 billion in Q3 2011.The public sector
continued to dominate the domestic bond market
during the quarter, accounting for 98.3 percent of
total bond issuances. Public sector issuances grew
on account of the domestic bond exchange
conducted in July. Meanwhile, trading at the
secondary market of both government and
corporate securities at the Fixed Income Exchange
(FIE) rose to P1,687 billion in Q3 2011, twice as
much as the previous quarter’s P770.9 billion.
This reflected investors’ preference for relatively
safe fixed income securities over riskier assets
given heightened concerns over the spillover
effects of prolonged sovereign fiscal and debt
problems in the US and Europe.
Standard and Poor’s (S&P) upgrades outlook on
Philippine sovereign debt. Following the upgrade
made by Moody’s and Fitch in Q2 2011, S&P
reaffirmed the Philippines foreign‐ and local‐
currency sovereign ratings two notches below
investment grade with a stable outlook. The rating
was supported by the country’s strong external
liquidity, low external liability position, and a
record of moderately strong economic growth.
However, S&P also noted that the country’s rating
was constrained by the relatively low income
level, weak fiscal profile, and high, although
improving, public sector debt ratios. Despite the
upgrade, investors placed a higher premium in
holding Philippine debt papers as reflected in the
general widening of debt spreads in Q3 2011. The
widening of the debt spreads is attributed mainly
to threats of contagion amid possible global
slowdown and lingering economic uncertainties in
the US and the Euro area.
The surplus in the country’s external payments
position increases. The balance of payments
(BOP) surplus increased to US$4.7 billion in the
third quarter of 2011, reflecting a 42.3 percent
increment from the surplus during the same
quarter a year ago of US$3.3 billion. The
considerable improvement in the country’s
external payments position was due mainly to
higher net inflows in the capital and financial
account. The current account also remained in
surplus, buoyed primarily by gains registered in
services, income and current transfers. Despite
the prevailing uncertainties in the global
economic environment and greater risk aversion
following intensified financial strains in advanced
economies, strong capital inflows to emerging
economies with brighter growth prospects,
including the Philippines, have continued. Large
capital inflows along with sustained remittances
and business process outsourcing (BPO) receipts
compensated for the weak trade performance
during the review quarter following slower
demand in advanced economies.
5
Third Quarter 2011
International reserves remain healthy. The
country’s gross international reserves (GIR)
continued to strengthen, increasing by about 40
percent year‐on‐year to reach US$75.2 billion as
of end‐September 2011. This level is sufficient to
cover 11.1 months’ worth of imports of goods and
payments of services and income. The
corresponding reserve adequacy ratios at this GIR
level were 10.5 times the country’s short‐term
external debt based on original maturity and 6.3
times based on residual maturity. The sustained
increase in the GIR level was due mainly to foreign
exchange operations and income from
investments abroad of the BSP.
The peso continues to strengthen. The peso
continued to strengthen amid heightened risk
aversion stemming from worries over the
sovereign debt crisis in Europe as well as the weak
growth prospects of the global economy. The
peso appreciated by 1.2 percent to average
P42.75/US$1 in Q3 2011 from P43.24/US$1 in the
previous quarter. On a year‐on‐year basis, the
peso strengthened by 5.9 percent relative to the
P45.27/US$1 average in the same period in 2010.
Sustained foreign exchange inflows arising from
overseas Filipino (OF) remittances and continued
portfolio investment inflows remained the
fundamental drivers of the peso’s buoyancy.
External debt remains manageable. As of end‐
September 2011, outstanding BSP‐
approved/registered external debt reached
US$62.4 billion, up by 1.6 percent from the level
recorded in end‐June 2011. The increase in debt
stock was attributed mainly to the upward foreign
exchange revaluation adjustments resulting from
the weakening of the US dollar vis‐á‐vis the
Japanese yen, and transfer of residents’ holdings
of Philippine debt papers to non‐residents. These
upward adjustments were offset in part by the
net repayments on loans amounting to
US$211 million. The external debt profile
remained predominantly medium‐ and long‐term
(MLT), indicating that loan payments are spread
out over a longer period of time, resulting in a
more manageable level of debt servicing. Debt
ratios remain at comfortable levels during the
quarter under review. The external debt to GDP
ratio was estimated at 28.4 percent during the
review period, lower than ratios posted a quarter
ago and a year ago. The debt service ratio (DSR)
was estimated at 8.7 percent for the period
ending September 2011, higher than the quarter‐
and year‐ago ratios.
The global economy continues to grow, albeit at
a moderate pace. Developments in Q3 2011
showed that the global economy continued to
grow at a moderate pace relative to the previous
quarter amid financial turbulence in the euro
area. The U.S economy posted a modest growth
of 2.0 percent during the review quarter, primarily
driven by an upturn in durable goods and pick up
in services as reflected in spending for housing,
utilities and health care. Meanwhile, Japan’s
economy rebounded, posting a 1.5 percent
growth in Q3 2011, a positive development
6
Third Quarter 2011
following three quarters of contraction. This
growth was driven by the rebound in Japan’s
exports and domestic consumption from the
March 2011 earthquake. China’s GDP growth,
however, decelerated slightly in Q3 2011
compared to the previous quarter. The slowdown
was a result in part of China's macro‐prudential
regulations intented to curb soaring property
prices, rein in inflation and regulate local
government financing of vehicle purchases.
Challenges and Policy Directions
The Philippines faces headwinds that could
undermine its positive economic outlook. On the
domestic front, major challenges include the
acceleration of fiscal spending to support
economic activity, particularly the smooth
execution of the public‐private partnership
initiatives that could fast‐track much‐needed
investments in infrastructure. On the external
front, the lingering weakness in the US economy
and the deepening sovereign debt and banking
problems in the Eurozone could heighten risk
aversion in financial markets and drag down
global trade. Likewise, foreign firms’ planned
business expansions in the Philippines could be
put on hold if economic conditions in AEs
deteriorate further.
Softer economic activity in the US resulting from
weak labor market conditions and continued
repair of the private sector’s balance sheet could
also dampen exports of Philippine goods and
services, given that the US is one of the country’s
major trading partners. In addition, heightened
risk aversion from a full‐blown sovereign debt
crisis in the Euro area could prompt investors to
pull their investments out of the country in favor
of perceived safe haven financial securities such
as US Treasuries and gold.
Amid these challenges, the BSP will remain
committed to its fundamental mandate of
maintaining price stability. The latest baseline
forecasts indicate that inflation could settle within
the government‐announced target range for 2011
and 2012. The balance of risks to inflation
continues to be predominantly on the downside
due to weaker prospects for the growth of the
global economy along with demand for key
commodities such as oil. At the same time, the
broadly stable peso could help temper the prices
of imported commodities. Meanwhile, upside
risks to inflation could emanate from additional
petitions for domestic electricity rate
adjustments, the impact of strong capital inflows,
and possible uptick in rice prices.
The BSP is also mindful of the continued influx of
foreign funds to the country amid loose global
liquidity conditions. While capital inflows provide
funds to finance productive activities, help
smoothen consumption expenditures and allow
diversification of financial risks, they can also
complicate liquidity management, create
pressures for currencies to appreciate and trigger
systemic stress in the financial system through
7
Third Quarter 2011
asset price inflation. Thus, the BSP has been
enhancing its policy toolkit to better respond to
the effects of capital inflows, including the use of
macroprudential tools.
On the external sector, the BSP will remain
committed to sustaining the current favorable
external sector dynamics. Toward this end, the
BSP will continue to ensure an exchange rate
determined by market forces but will guard
against excessive foreign exchange volatility that
could undermine economic growth. The BSP will
continue to maintain a comfortable level of
international reserves, which could serve as
insurance against external shocks. Likewise, the
BSP will work toward keeping the country’s
external debt at sustainable levels.
The BSP will also pursue financial reform
measures to maintain the soundness of the
financial system. Regulatory and supervisory
frameworks will also be continued to be
benchmarked to international standards and best
practices. The BSP will pursue initiatives not only
to promote the safety of individual banks in the
form of microprudential tools but also to ensure
the system‐wide stability of the financial sector
through macroprudential measures.
The BSP will likewise continue to promote the
smooth functioning of the payments and
settlements system by adopting methodologies
and processes that will ensure sufficient liquidity
to effect financial transactions on a timely and
cost‐effective basis.
Another contribution of the BSP to participatory
economic development is its commitment to
promoting an inclusive financial system. In
connection with this, the BSP will work toward
broadening further access to the financial sector,
particularly to the “unbanked” sector of society.
The BSP will continue its financial learning
campaigns to educate the public on the benefits
of transacting through the formal banking system.
Moreover, financial learning campaigns serve as a
venue to communicate with the public the latest
economic developments and policy actions of the
BSP.
Finally, the recent financial crisis has highlighted
the increasingly interconnected global financial
markets that cut across national boundaries.
Hence, the BSP will remain an active participant in
regional and international cooperation programs,
recognizing the opportunity and benefits for
collaborative engagement.
Third Quarter 2011
8
B. Real Sector
Aggregate Supply and Demand
Real GDP grew by an annual rate of 3.2 percent in
Q3 2011, slower than the 7.3 percent recorded in the
same quarter in 2010. Economic growth was pulled
down mainly by the contraction of the industry sector,
particularly construction activities. On the production
side, GDP growth was led by the services sector, while
on the expenditure side, expansion was led by capital
formation; and government final consumption
expenditure. Similarly, real GNI grew at a modest pace
of 1.6 percent after growing by 6.9 percent in the same
period a year ago. The deceleration was due to the
contraction in the net primary income (NPI) amid the
global economic slowdown and increasing uncertainties
in the advanced economies (AEs). The July‐September
2011 GDP growth was below the government’s 2011
growth target of 4.5‐5.5 percent for 2011.
Production
The services sector, which comprised 58.0 percent of
GDP, grew by 5.3 percent, slower than the 7.8 percent
recorded in the same quarter a year ago. Major
contributors to the services sector’s favorable
performance were real estate, renting and business
activities; other services; and public administration and
defense. Growth in real estate, renting and business
activities was propelled by the expansion of renting and
other business activities and ownership of dwellings.
The rise in other services was the result of the increase
Philippine economic growth slows.
Services sector continues to support economic expansion.
Real GDP, By Industry Real GDP, By Industry Annual Growth Rates in Percent
‐5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry Industry Services
2009 2010 2011
Real Gross Domestic Product andReal Gross Domestic Product andReal Gross National IncomeReal Gross National IncomeAnnual Growth Rates in Percent
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Real GDP Real GNI
2009 2010 2011
Third Quarter 2011
9
in activities pertaining to sewage and refuse disposal
sanitation, hotels and restaurants, and education.
Meanwhile, the expansion of public administration and
defense during the quarter was due to the third tranche
fund release related to the salary increase for
government workers as mandated by the Salary
Standardization Law.
The agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing sector
likewise boosted Q3 2011 economic activity, supported
by the strong recovery in sugarcane, palay, cassava,
poultry and rubber productions. The agriculture sector,
which accounts for 10.7 percent of GDP, expanded by
1.8 percent during the review period, a reversal of the
2.0 percent contraction it posted in the same quarter in
2010.
Meanwhile, the industry sector contracted by
0.2 percent, a reversal of the 9.8 percent growth posted
during the same period a year ago. The industry sector
pulled down output growth due mainly to the large
contraction in public and private construction activities.
Nonetheless, robust manufacturing activity helped
offset the decline in the construction sub‐sector.
Increases were recorded by manufacturers of furniture
and fixture; office, accounting and computing
machinery; miscellaneous manufactures; paper and
paper products; and chemical and chemical products.
Mining and quarrying also grew in response to rising
global mineral prices and higher local production.
Third Quarter 2011
10
Expenditures
On the expenditure side, capital formation continued to
buoy up the economy, expanding by 24.5 percent in Q3
2011, although slower than the 34.5 percent recorded in
the same quarter a year ago. Increased spending on air
transport equipment; sugarmill machineries; tractor
other than steam machineries; and other special
industrial machineries spurred capital formation.
Similarly, government final consumption expenditure
increased by 9.4 percent, a reversal of the 6.5 percent
contraction in the same period last year. The increase in
provision for social protection (e.g., Pampatawid
Pamilyang Pilipino Program (PPPP) and pension program
for indigent older person) drove the increase in
government spending.
The growth of household final consumption expenditure
continued to accelerate by 7.1 percent from its year‐ago
level of 2.4 percent. Increased spending on education;
miscellaneous goods and services; and food and non‐
alcoholic beverages led to a sustained growth in private
consumption.
Meanwhile, external demand continued to weaken amid
global economic slowdown. Total exports contracted by
13.1 percent, a reversal from a 23.1 percent expansion
registered a year ago. Merchandise exports contracted
by 14.8 percent from 26.6 percent positive growth in
the same quarter a year ago, due largely to the decrease
in exports of electronic components. Meanwhile, the
Third Quarter 2011
11
positive outturn of principal agricultural products;
articles of apparel and clothing accessories; and others
cushioned the plunge of the export sector.
Labor and Employment
Based on the results of the July 2011 Labor Force Survey
(LFS) of the National Statistics Office (NSO),
unemployment rate rose slightly to 7.1 percent in the
third quarter of 2011 from 6.9 percent registered a year
ago as labor force growth outpaced growth in
employment (Table 2). Nonetheless, the unemployment
rate for the third quarter was slightly lower than the
7.2 percent posted during the previous quarter.
Employment growth increased to 2.4 percent in the
third quarter of 2011 from 2.1 percent in the same
period a year ago. The services sector posted the
highest growth in employment at 4.3 percent, a
significant increase from the 1.6 percent growth
recorded in the comparable quarter of last year. The
industry sector registered a 4.1 percent growth in
employment, an improvement from the 2.6 percent in
the third quarter of 2010. Meanwhile, employment in
the agriculture, fishery and forestry (AFF) sector
registered a 1.2 percent decline, a reversal of the
3.2 percent growth in the third quarter of last year. The
contraction was attributed mainly to the occurrence of
strong typhoons in July which affected adversely the
agricultural sector. Of the 37.1 million total employed
persons in the third quarter of 2011, more than half
(52.2 percent) were employed by the services sector.
The AFF and industry sectors accounted for 32.6 percent
and 15.2 percent of total employment, respectively.
Unemployment rises slightly.
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Unemployment rate, SA (LHS) Underemployment Rate (RHS)
Unemployment and Underemployment Rates in percent
Jul 20117.1
Jul 201119.1
Third Quarter 2011
12
Meanwhile, the ratio of underemployed to total
employed persons was up at 19.1 percent in the third
quarter of 2011 from 17.9 percent in the same period in
2010. The AFF sector accounted for 43.7 percent of the
total 7.1 million underemployed persons, while the
services and industry sectors comprised 40.7 percent
and 15.7 percent of the total, respectively.
By class of workers, employment increased among wage
and salary workers, posting a 7.9 percent growth in the
review quarter from the 1.4 percent contraction a year
ago. In contrast, employment declined among self‐
employed workers without any paid employee
(‐9.5 percent), workers without pay in own‐family
operated farm or business (‐8.8 percent) and employers
in own‐family operated farm or business (‐6.3 percent).1
C. Fiscal Sector
National Government Cash Operations
The cash operations of the national government (NG)
yielded a deficit of P35.8 billion in the third quarter of
2011. This level was lower than: (a) the P63.1 billion
deficit incurred in the same period in 2010; and (b) the
programmed deficit of P82.2 billion for the review
quarter.
Total revenues increased by 10.8 percent year‐on‐year
(y‐o‐y) to reach P335.4 billion, but were lower by
1 An employer is a person working in his own business, farm, profession or trade who has one or more regular paid employees, including paid family members. Domestic helpers, family drivers and other household helpers who assist in the family‐operated business, regardless of time spent in this activity, are not hired employees in the enterprise/business. A retail store operator who is wholly assisted in the operation of his store by unpaid relatives living with him and who employs carpenters to construct a new building for his store (with store operator supervising the work) is not an employer. However, if an operator happens to be the owner or partner of a big firm which has its own construction unit to take care of its needs, the operator is an employer. (Source: http://www.bles.dole.gov.ph)
NG cash operations yield a lower deficit.
‐150
‐75
0
75
150
225
300
375
450
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Revenues Expenditures Surplus/(Deficit)
Cash Operations of the National GovernmentCash Operations of the National GovernmentIn Billion Pesos
2009 2010 2011
Third Quarter 2011
13
5.4 percent compared to the target revenue level for
the third quarter 2011 of P354.4 billion due mainly to
lower collections of import duties by the Bureau of
Customs (BOC). Tax collections, which constituted 88.8
percent of total revenues generated during the review
period, amounted to P297.9 billion, 8.3 percent lower
than the programmed tax revenue of P324.8 billion.
Meanwhile, non‐tax revenues and grants, which
consisted mainly of collections by the Bureau of the
Treasury (BTr), amounted to P37.5 billion, representing
an overperformance from the programmed level of
P29.6 billion for the review period.
Meanwhile, total expenditures amounted to
P371.2 billion in the third quarter of 2011, significantly
lower than the P436.6 billion programmed expenditures
for the quarter due mainly to lower interest payments.
The third quarter 2011 expenditure level was, however,
1.5 percent higher than the expenditures incurred a
year ago on account of higher allotment to local
government units (LGUs). The NG generated a deficit for
the review period, with net financing amounting to
P13.6 billion, lower than the programmed net financing
of P38.1 billion. Meanwhile, there has been a net
withdrawal of P307.3 billion, a significant turnaround
from the P101.6 billion net deposit incurred in the same
period in 2010. The resulting financing mix was 68:32, in
favor of domestic borrowings.
For 2011, the NG will calibrate the fiscal program to take
into account the repercussions on the revenue
collection efforts of the NG of the various revenue‐
Actual vs. ProgramActual vs. ProgramSurplus/Deficit (Surplus/Deficit (‐‐))In billion pesos
‐150.0
‐135.0
‐120.0
‐105.0
‐90.0
‐75.0
‐60.0
‐45.0
‐30.0
‐15.0
0.0
15.0
30.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Actual Program
2009 2010 2011
Third Quarter 2011
14
eroding measures2 enacted into law and the need to
provide transitional stimulus for sustained economic
recovery. The NG will also continue to pursue fiscal
consolidation in the medium term by supporting
legislative initiatives to raise revenues and widen the tax
base while pursuing parallel efforts to reinforce tax
administration and ensure an efficient expenditure
management program. In fact, the NG has implemented
recently its P72.1 billion disbursement acceleration plan
to narrow the spending shortfall and push economic
growth. Out of this budget, P37.92 billion has been
allocated to national government agencies, P7.25 billion
to LGUs, and P26.90 billion to government‐owned or
‐controlled corporations (GOCCs). Funding has been
sourced from unused appropriations in 2010 and 2011,
windfall revenue from GOCC dividends, and
realignments within agencies in favor of fast‐disbursing
projects.
D. Monetary Sector
Prices
The y‐o‐y headline inflation was 4.4 percent in Q3 2011,
slightly lower than the quarter‐ago rate of 4.5 percent
but higher than the 3.9 percent rate registered a year
ago using the 2000‐based Consumer Price Index (CPI)
series. Similarly, the new 2006‐based CPI series released
by the NSO—which was derived using an updated
consumer basket of goods and services—showed lower
headline inflation for Q3 2011 at 4.8 percent from 5.0
2 These measures include the following: (1) Expanded Senior Citizens Act of 2010; (2) Exemption of secondary trading of stocks from the Documentary Stamp Tax; (3) Imposition of 3‐percent franchise tax for power distribution utilities in lieu of value‐added and income taxes; (4) Exemption of Duty Free Philippines Corp from duties and taxes; (5) Income tax holiday to be granted to establishments located in tourism enterprise zones; and (6) Elimination of tariff on imports from ASEAN starting 2010.
Inflation decelerates.
Third Quarter 2011
15
percent in Q2 2011. On a year‐to‐date (y‐t‐d) basis, the
average inflation of 4.3 percent using the 2000‐based
basket and 4.8 percent using the 2006‐based basket are
both within the Government's inflation target range of
3‐5 percent for 2011.
Based on the 2000‐based CPI series, the slowdown in
headline inflation was due mainly to lower food
inflation, particularly for miscellaneous food.
Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes some food
and energy items to measure generalized price
pressures, was unchanged at 3.6 percent in Q3 2011
from the previous quarter’s level.
Food, beverage, and tobacco inflation declined to
3.8 percent during the review quarter from 4.2 percent
in the previous quarter, but was higher than the
3.3 percent posted a year ago. Reflecting tight supply
conditions triggered by weather disturbances, prices
picked up for most food products, including fish, and
fruits and vegetables. Meanwhile, lower prices of sugar
due to ample domestic supply tempered the increase in
food inflation.
Non‐food inflation inched up to 5.0 percent in Q3 2011
from 4.9 percent a quarter ago and 4.4 percent a year
ago. Higher inflation for fuel, and transportation and
communication services accounted for the rise in non‐
food inflation during the review period. In particular,
from 9.8 percent in Q2 2011, transportation and
communication services inflation rose to 9.9 percent in
Q3 2011, reflecting the surge in global oil prices. Fuel
Tight supply conditions due to weather disturbances lead to higher food inflation.
Third Quarter 2011
16
inflation likewise climbed to 16.7 percent from
15.3 percent due to higher prices of gas and LPG.
Meanwhile, quarter‐on‐quarter (q‐o‐q) headline
inflation declined further to 0.4 percent in Q3 2011 from
1.3 percent in the previous quarter, driven by lower
non‐food inflation. In particular, non‐food inflation
decelerated significantly to 0.4 percent from 2.1 percent
in Q2 2011. The q‐o‐q decline was attributed mainly to
the drop in q‐o‐q inflation rates for fuel, and
transportation and communication services to
‐2.2 percent and ‐0.6 percent, respectively, from
4.6 percent and 4.0 percent in Q2 2011.
In terms of geographical location, headline inflation for
Metro Manila (MM) edged higher to 4.2 percent from
the 4.1 percent recorded a quarter and a year ago
(Table 4a). Meanwhile, the same period saw inflation in
areas outside Metro Manila (AOMM) unchanged at
4.6 percent (Table 4b).
On a q‐o‐q basis, headline inflation in MM was zero in
Q3 2011 compared to the 1.4 percent posted in the
previous quarter. Likewise, inflation in AOMM
decreased to 0.6 percent from 1.2 percent in Q2 2011.
Food inflation in MM increased slightly to 3.5 percent
from 3.4 percent a quarter ago and 1.8 percent a year
ago. Meanwhile, non‐food inflation in MM inched up to
4.7 percent from 4.6 percent in the previous quarter,
but was lower than the 5.3 percent posted a year ago.
Inflation exhibits mixed trends in MM and in AOMM.
Inflation RateInflation RateIn Percent (2000=100)
‐2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Philippines
NCR
Areas Outside the NCR
20112009 2010
Third Quarter 2011
17
In AOMM, food inflation declined to 4.0 percent in the
review period from the quarter‐ago rate of 4.4 percent,
but was higher relative to the year‐ago rate of
3.7 percent. Meanwhile, non‐food inflation climbed to
5.3 percent in the review period from 5.0 percent in Q2
2011 and 3.6 percent in the comparable period in 2010.
On a q‐o‐q basis, food inflation in MM was lower at
0.1 percent in Q3 2011 from 0.3 percent. Similarly, non‐
food inflation decelerated to ‐0.1 percent in Q3 2001
from 2.1 percent.
Q‐o‐q food inflation in AOMM was unchanged at
0.5 percent. Meanwhile, non‐food inflation in AOMM
decreased to 0.6 percent from the quarter‐ago rate of
2.1 percent, but was higher than the year‐ago rate of
0.3 percent.
The official NSO core inflation measure remained steady
in Q3 2011 as the decrease in food core inflation was
offset by the increase in non‐food core inflation.
Nonetheless, the Q3 2011 core inflation was lower
compared to the 4.0 percent recorded in the same
quarter a year ago.
Meanwhile, all three alternative measures of core
inflation estimated by the BSP showed a decline relative
to the previous quarter. The trimmed mean, weighted
median and net of volatile items measures slowed down
to 3.4 percent, 2.5 percent, and 4.8 percent from the
previous quarter’s 3.7 percent, 2.6 percent, and
5.0 percent, respectively.
Alternative Core Inflation MeasuresQuarterly averages of year‐on‐year change
QuarterOfficial Core
InflationTrimmed
Mean 1/
Weighted
Median 2/Net of Volatile
Items 3/ *
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
3.7
3.4
3.9
4.0
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.0r
3.4
3.2
2.8
2.5r
3.2
3.7
3.4
2.6
3.2
2.9
2.4
1.8r
2.2
2.6
2.5
4.9
5.0
5.6
4.8
4.1
4.4
5.0
4.81/ The trimmed mean represents the average inflation rate of the (weighted) middle 70 percent in a lowest
to‐highest ranking of year‐on‐year inflation rates for all CPI components.
2/ The weighted median represents the middle inflation rate (corresponding to a cumulative CPI weight of 50 percent) in a lowest‐to‐highest ranking of year‐on‐year inflation rates.
3/ The net of volatile items method excludes the following items: educational services, fruits and vegetables, personal services, rentals, recreational services, rice, and corn.
r/ Revised.
* The series has been recomputed using a new methodology that is aligned with NSO’s method of computing the official core inflation, which re‐weights remaining items to comprise 100 percent of the core basket after excluding non‐core items. The previous methodology retained the weights of volatile items in the CPI basket while keeping their indices constant at 100.0 from month to month.
Source: NSO, BSP estimates
Third Quarter 2011
18
Domestic Liquidity 3
Based on data generated from the Financial Reporting
Package (FRP) system,4 demand for money grew by
7.4 percent y‐o‐y as of end‐September 2011, lower than
the 11.4 percent growth posted as of end‐June 2011
(Table 5). The accelerated expansion in net foreign
assets (NFA) at 24.9 percent y‐o‐y in September 2011
(from 14.8 percent in June 2011) continued to fuel the
expansion in domestic liquidity. The uptrend in NFA can
be traced to the continued build‐up of the BSP’s
international reserves due to sustained foreign
exchange inflows from overseas Filipino remittances and
portfolio investments. Meanwhile, the NFA of other
depository corporations (ODCs) continued to decline by
104.3 percent following a contraction of 83.7 percent in
June as banks’ foreign liabilities rose on higher
placements made by foreign banks with locally‐based
banks and a decrease in banks’ foreign assets due in
part to a contraction in loan receivables from foreign
banks.
Net domestic assets (NDA) declined by 15.0 percent in
September (from a marginal decrease in June) given the
faster expansion of the net other items account (which
includes revaluation and capital and reserve accounts as
well as the SDA placements of trust entities).
Meanwhile, credits extended to the private sector rose
by 16.3 percent, consistent with the accelerated pace of
bank lending to the productive sectors of the economy.
3The indicators used for money supply are: M1 (or narrow money), consisting of currency in circulation and demand deposits; M2, composed of M1 plus savings and time deposits (quasi‐money); M3, consisting of M2 plus deposit substitutes; and M4, consisting of M3 plus foreign currency deposits. 4The Financial Reporting Package (FRP), which replaced the Consolidated Statement of Condition (CSOC) reports, is compliant with the International Accounting Standards (IAS) and International Financial Reporting System (IFRS). All the numbers were worked back to ensure consistency in the series.
16.33.12,763.43,116.73,213.8Credits to the Private Sector
‐3.80.41,370.71,313.81,319.2Credits to the Public Sector
of which:
‐15.0‐12.92,547.42,485.52,164.5Net Domestic Assets
24.97.32,610.13,039.23,260.5Net Foreign Assets
of which:
7.4‐1.54,056.04,423.84,356.5Domestic Liquidity (M3),
Y‐o‐YQ‐o‐QSep‐10Jun‐11Sep‐11
Growth Rates (in %)Levels (in billion pesos)
Particulars
Domestic Liquidity (M3)
Growth in domestic liquidity decelerates.
M4: Domestic Liquidity and M4: Domestic Liquidity and FCDsFCDsValue in P billion; Share in percent
M380.7%
FCDs19.3%
M379.5%
FCDs20.5%
End‐September 2011End‐September 2010
Third Quarter 2011
19
By contrast, credits extended by banks to the public
sector declined anew by 3.8 percent with the steady
increase in NG deposits with the BSP and other banks as
well as the decrease in net credits from banks to the NG.
M4, a broader concept of domestic liquidity, comprising
of M3 and foreign currency deposits of residents, grew
by 5.4 percent y‐o‐y in September 2011 from
7.8 percent in June 2011.
Domestic Interest Rates
The average 91‐day Treasury bill (T‐bill) rate was broadly
unchanged during the quarter, rising marginally by
3 basis points to 1.49 percent from 1.46 percent in Q2
2011. Meanwhile, the average 182‐day T‐bill rate
increased during the review quarter to 1.8 percent from
1.1 percent. In contrast, the 364‐day T‐bill rate declined
to 1.9 percent in Q3 2011 from 2.4 percent. Compared
to the previous year, T‐bill rates are lower due to strong
demand and ample liquidity, reflecting investors’
preference for short‐term and risk‐free assets like
T‐bills.
The yields for all maturities in the secondary market
shifts downward in the third quarter compared to the
previous quarter, largely on the back of ample market
liquidity and upbeat confidence in the domestic
economy. The decline indicates the investors’
preference for Philippine government securities due to
the country’s relatively stable economic outlook.
T‐bill rates in the primary market show mixed trends.
The yield curve shifts downward.
Selected Domestic Nominal Interest RatesSelected Domestic Nominal Interest RatesIn percent
Q3 Q2 Q‐o‐Q Y‐o‐Y
Treasury BillsAll Maturities 1.761 1.770 (0.90) (256.60)
91 days 1.485 1.455 3.00 (247.80)182 days 1.805 1.083 72.20 (247.30)364 days 1.894 2.382 (48.80) (262.60)
Lending RatesHigh 7.980 7.666 31.37 (90.12)Low 5.831 5.549 28.22 (84.32)
All Maturities 1 7.008 6.555 45.30 (63.80)
Interbank Call Loans 4.685 4.654 3.14 50.30Savings Deposits 1.780 1.592 18.80 19.60Time Deposits (all maturities) 2.912 2.888 2.40 (9.30)Manila Reference Rates 4.875 4.750 12.50 0.00
3.0054.875
4.327
2011
1 Refers to the weighted average interest rate of reporting commercial banks' interest incomes on their outstanding peso‐denominated loans.
3.9634.2784.520
8.8816.674
7.646
4.1821.584
Difference(basis points)
2010
Q3
Third Quarter 2011
20
In contrast, bank lending rates for all maturities
increased by 45 basis points in the third quarter
compared to the previous quarter. Similarly, the interest
rates for interbank call loans, savings and time deposits,
and Manila reference rates also rose during the review
period.
The Monetary Board kept the policy rates steady in the
third quarter at 4.5 percent for the overnight borrowing
or reverse repurchase (RRP) facility and 6.5 percent for
the overnight lending or repurchase (RP) facility.
However, it raised the reserve requirement on deposits
and deposit substitutes of all banks and non‐banks with
quasi‐banking functions by 1 percentage point to
21 percent effective 5 August 2011.
The before‐ and after‐tax differentials between the
domestic interest rate and the comparable US LIBOR
and US T‐bill rates slightly narrowed in the third quarter
of 2011 as the average 91‐day RP T‐bill rate decreased
from its previous quarter’s rate.
Meanwhile, the positive differential between the BSP
RRP rate and the US federal funds rate remained at
425 bps during the review period as the Monetary
Board (MB) opted to retain the BSP’s policy rates during
its meetings in the third quarter.
Monetary Policy Developments
During its 28 July and 8 September monetary policy
meetings, the MB decided to maintain policy interest
rates at 4.5 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP
Yield Curve for Government SecuritiesYield Curve for Government SecuritiesIn percent
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
3Mo 6Mo 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 7Yr 10Yr 20Yr 25Yr
Q3 2010Q1 2011
Q2 2011Q3 2011
Third Quarter 2011
21
facility and 6.5 percent for the overnight lending or RP
facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs
were also left unchanged during the review quarter.
The MB’s decision was based on its assessment that the
inflation outlook remained favorable, indicating that
policy settings during the quarter remained appropriate.
Latest baseline forecasts showed inflation settling within
the target range of 3‐5 percent for 2011‐2013, while
inflation expectations remained firmly anchored given
easing commodity prices and manageable inflation
outcomes. Domestic output growth also slowed down
in the first half of 2011 as external demand weakened
and public spending went below program.
Furthermore, the MB was of the view that risks to the
inflation outlook may be receding, with global
inflationary pressures expected to ease along with the
slowdown in advanced economies. Food prices have
also remained tame with favorable supply conditions in
both domestic and international markets. The abating
price pressures give monetary authorities sufficient
room to keep policy rates on hold. A prudent pause in
the policy stance would allow for a more careful
assessment of inflation risks amid signs of sluggish
global economic growth. The MB believed, therefore,
that the monetary policy settings in Q3 2011 remained
in line with the need to safeguard price stability and
support sustained economic growth.
At its 28 July 2011 policy meeting, the MB kept policy
rates steady, but decided to raise anew the reserve
requirement on deposits and deposit substitute of all
MB raises anew reserve requirements
Third Quarter 2011
22
banks and non‐banks with quasi‐banking functions by
one percentage point effective 5 August 2011.
The MB’s decision to raise the reserve requirement was
a preemptive move to better manage liquidity in the
financial system. The MB noted that bank lending,
supported by the strong momentum of domestic
economic activity and stable financial conditions,
continued to grow at double‐digit rates since January
2011. The MB also believed that sustained foreign
exchange inflows, driven by upbeat market sentiment
on the prospects for the Philippine economy, could lead
to a further acceleration of domestic liquidity growth
and pose risks to future inflation.
E. Financial Sector
The Philippine banking system remained resilient and
robust on the back of steady asset growth, growing
deposit base, ample liquidity and above standard
solvency ratios. Sustained implementation of key
financial sector reforms together with the improving
macroeconomic environment augured well for the
system during the quarter in review.
Performance of the Banking System
Market Size
The number of banking institutions (head offices) fell
further to 739 as of end‐June 2011 from the quarter‐
and year‐ago levels of 746 and 773, respectively,
denoting the continued consolidation of banks as well as
The banking system remains resilient.
The number of banks declines but operating network continues to expand.
Third Quarter 2011
23
the exit of weaker players in the banking system. By
banking classification, banks (head offices) consisted of
38 universal and commercial banks (U/KBs), 72 thrift
banks (TBs), and 629 rural banks (RBs). Meanwhile, the
operating network (including branches) of the banking
system increased to 8,915 in Q2 2011 from 8,870 in Q1
2011 and 8,685 during the same period last year, due
mainly to the increase in the branches/agencies of
commercial and rural banks.
The total resources of the banking system rose by
9.6 percent to P7.4 trillion as of end‐September 2011.
The increase could be traced to the growth in currency
and deposits, indicative of the public’s continued trust in
the banking sector. U/KBs accounted for the bulk
(almost 90 percent) of the total resources of the banking
system.
Savings Mobilization
Savings and time deposits remained the primary sources
of funds for banks. Banks’ total deposits5 as of end‐
September 2011 amounted to P3.8 trillion, 5.6 percent
higher than the year‐ago level of P3.6 trillion. The
continued growth in deposits reflected sustained
depositors’ confidence in the banking system. Savings
deposits registered a 13.4 percent growth and
accounted for nearly half of the funding base. Demand
deposits expanded by 12.4 percent y‐o‐y while time
deposits declined by 4.7 percent from its level posted a
year ago.
5 Total peso‐denominated deposits.
Deposit Liabilities of BanksIn billion pesos
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Demand Savings Time
2008 2009 2010 2011
Third Quarter 2011
24
Bank Lending Operations
Outstanding loans of commercial banks, net of banks'
RRP placements with the BSP as of end‐September
2011, grew at an accelerated pace of 21.7 percent y‐o‐y
and by 2.1 percent compared to the level as of end‐June
2011. Likewise, outstanding loans of commercial banks
inclusive of RRPs expanded to 18.9 percent and
0.3 percent y‐o‐y and q‐o‐q, respectively. Commercial
banks' loans continued to grow steadily at double‐digit
growth rates since January 2011. The sustained
expansion in bank lending supports the view that
underlying domestic demand remains strong, coupled
with positive expectations on the economy by both
businesses and consumers.
Loans for production activities, which comprised around
84 percent of commercial banks’ total loan portfolio,
posted a 22.9 percent growth. The expansion was higher
than the 10.7 percent y‐o‐y growth registered during
the same period last year. The growth of production
loans was driven mainly by increased lending to mining
and quarrying (342.0 percent); electricity, gas and water
(56.3 percent); financial intermediation (32.8 percent);
wholesale and retail trade (29.8 percent); and real
estate renting and business services (26.1 percent).
Similarly, growth in consumer loans also increased to
17.9 percent, reflecting the rapid growth in lending
across all types of household loans.
Bank lending continues to grow.
Loans Outstanding of Universal/Commercial Banks (Gross of RRPs) In trillion pesos
1.35
1.55
1.75
1.95
2.15
2.35
2.55
2.75
2.95
3.15
M ar Jun Sep Dec M ar Jun Sep D ec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec M ar Jun Aug
20082007
Universal Banks/Commercial Banks (August ‘11) P2.882T
2009 2010 2011
Third Quarter 2011
25
Credit Card Receivables
The combined credit card receivables (CCRs) of U/KBs
and TBs as of end‐March 2011, inclusive of credit card
subsidiaries, went down by 1.3 percent to P118.8 billion
compared to the level at the end of the previous
quarter, indicative of consumers’ preference to pay in
cash for their purchases of goods or services during the
period. Compared to last year’s level, however, CCRs
rose by nearly 7.8 percent, further boosting the growth
in household consumption level. The growth registered
was consistent with the past trends wherein CCRs
decline during the quarter following the Christmas
season but record a y‐o‐y growth. Meanwhile, the ratio
of CCRs to total loan portfolio (TLP) dipped slightly to
4.0 percent from 4.1 percent during the previous
quarter. The non‐performing CCRs of U/KBs and TBs,
inclusive of credit card subsidiaries, grew moderately by
2.7 percent to P15.4 billion from last quarter’s P15.0
billion. The ratio of non‐performing CCRs to total CCRs
settled at 12.9 percent from last quarter’s 12.4 percent,
as the increase in non‐performing CCRs was
accompanied by the decline in total CCRs.
Auto Loans
Among consumer loans, auto loans (ALs) posted the
highest increase on both quarterly and annual bases.
ALs stood at P124.2 billion as of end‐March 2011, up by
5.6 percent from P117.6 billion during the previous
quarter and by 24.7 percent from P99.6 billion a year
ago. The consumers’ continued confidence in the
economy as well as the aggressive marketing strategy of
Credit card receivables decline.
Consumers’ continued confidence in the economy helps sustain demand for automobiles.
Third Quarter 2011
26
banks and other car financing firms sustained the
upsurge in automobile purchases. The proportion of
total ALs to TLP, exclusive of interbank loans (IBL), was
higher at 4.2 percent than last quarter’s ratio of
4.0 percent. In terms of loan quality, the non‐
performing ALs to total ALs slightly went down to
4.4 percent from previous quarter's 4.6 percent and
from last year's 5.1 percent.
Residential Real Estate Loans
As of end‐March 2011, the combined residential real
estate loans (RRELs) of U/KBs and TBs rose by
2.0 percent to P192.1 billion from the previous quarter’s
P188.3 billion and were 14.2 percent higher than last
year's P168.2 billion. The continued bullishness of the
real estate market given the number of projects
unveiled as well as banks’ intensified promotional
campaigns supported more real estate purchases during
the review period. Meanwhile, the ratio of RRELs to TLP
stood at 6.5 percent from last quarter’s 6.4 percent. By
type of bank, TBs and U/KBs shared almost equally the
total residential real estate exposure at 50.4 percent
(P96.9 billion) and 49.6 percent (P95.2 billion),
respectively. In terms of loan quality, the ratio of non‐
performing RRELs to total RRELs of U/KBs and TBs
improved to 5.1 percent from last quarter’s 6.9 percent.
The decline in the ratio came mainly on the back of the
25.3 percent decline in non‐performing RRELs coupled
with the 2.0 percent growth in total RRELs.
Continued bullishness in the property market supports real estate purchases.
Third Quarter 2011
27
Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy
The banking system’s asset quality improved with the
NPL ratio sustaining its downtrend path, easing at
3.3 percent as of end‐September 2011 from 3.9 percent
registered a year ago. Banks’ initiatives and prudent
lending regulations helped bring back the NPL ratio to
pre‐Asian crisis levels. Likewise, the low NPL ratio was a
result of the 5.9 percent decline in the level of NPLs
combined with the 12.1 percent expansion in the
industry’s total loan portfolio (TLP). The NPL level
dropped to P113.6 billion at end‐September 2011 from
P120.7 billion during the same period in 2010, while TLP
expanded to P3.5 trillion from P3.1 trillion during the
same period last year.
Meanwhile, the NPL ratio of U/KBs dropped further to
2.5 percent as of end‐September 2011 from the
3.1 percent posted in the same period in 2010, but
slightly higher than the ratio posted at end‐June 2011 at
2.4 percent.
The Philippine banking system’s NPL ratio of 3.2 percent
was comparatively higher than some of its neighbors
like Indonesia’s 2.8 percent, Malaysia’s 2.0 percent and
Korea’s 2.3 percent, but lower than Thailand’s
3.1 percent.6 The lower NPL ratios of Malaysia and
Korea could be attributed to the creation of publicly‐
owned asset management companies (AMCs), which
purchased the bulk of their NPLs, a practice not
implemented in the Philippines.
6 Sources: Various central bank websites and financial stability reports, Indonesia (commercial banks, August 2011); Malaysia (banking system, September 2011); Thailand (commercial banks, September 2011); and Korea (banking system, September 2010).
Asset quality continues to improve as NPL ratio remains below pre‐crisis level.
Third Quarter 2011
28
The loan exposure of banks remained adequately
covered as the banking system’s NPL coverage ratio was
steady at 99.3 percent as of end‐August 2011. The ratio
was indicative of banks’ continued compliance with the
loan‐loss provisioning requirements of the BSP to
ensure adequate buffers against unexpected losses.
Meanwhile, the capital adequacy ratios (CARs) of the
Philippine banking system remained robust despite
concerns over sovereign risk in Europe. The banking
system registered average CARs of 16.5 percent on solo
basis and 17.4 percent on consolidated basis as of end‐
March 2011, which were higher than the CARs posted as
of end‐December 2010. The sustained strength of the
banking system’s CARs resulted from the higher growth
rate of qualifying capital vis‐à‐vis that of risk weighted
assets. The industry’s CAR continued to exceed both the
statutory level set by the BSP at 10.0 percent and the
Bank for International Settlements (BIS) international
standard at 8.0 percent.
The Philippine banking system’s CAR on consolidated
basis at 17.4 percent was comparatively higher than
those of Indonesia (17.3 percent), Thailand
(16.0 percent), Malaysia (14.6 percent), and Korea
(14.3 percent).7
Banking Policies
Banking policies implemented during the quarter were
aimed at strengthening regulations, rules and guidelines
7 Sources: Various central bank websites and Financial Stability Report, Malaysia (banking system, September 2011); Korea (commercial banks, June 2010); Thailand (average full branch, September 2011) and Indonesia (commercial banks, August 2011).
Banking policies implemented aim to strengthen and enhance existing regulations.
Capital Adequacy Ratio of the Banking SystemIn percent
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Banks remain adequately capitalized, exceeding prescribed levels set by the BSP and the BIS.
Third Quarter 2011
29
on: 1) prompt corrective action (“PCA”) framework;
2) implementing the truth in lending act to enhance loan
transaction transparency; 3) mandatory credit allocation
for agriculture and agrarian reform credit; 4) Internal
Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) and
Supervisory Review Process (SRP) for foreign bank
branches; 5) Philippine Financial Reporting Standards
(PFRS) 9; and 6) Single Borrower's Limit (Annex A).
Capital Market Reforms
Capital market policy reforms continued to gain ground
during the review period as the BSP maintained an
active collaboration with other government agencies
and the private sector for the development of the
Philippine capital market. The reforms focused on the
following: promoting investor confidence, enhancing
transparency and corporate governance, helping
develop the necessary market infrastructure, and
advocating legislation to support the capital market
(Annex B).
Stock Market
Trading in the Philippine stock market ended flat during
the period July to September 2011, with the Philippine
Stock Exchange index (PSEi) almost unchanged as it
dipped by a slight 0.03 percent or 1.2 index points from
the previous quarter’s level to average 4,283.9 index
points. Market sentiments were boosted early in the
quarter by the Philippines’ ratings upgrade in June,
stable domestic inflation and increased investors’
demand for domestic mining stocks but were slowly
BSP maintains active collaboration with government agencies and the private sector in developing the capital market.
Stock market dips slightly on mixed trends.
Average PSEi*/
In index points
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
4,000
4,400
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32 006 2007 2008 2009
*/ Average of end-month PSEi during the quart er
2010 2011
Third Quarter 2011
30
eroded by concerns that the global economy was
heading into another recession following the US credit
rating downgrade in August and deepening European
debt crisis. Compared to year‐ago levels, however, the
local bourse’s performance during the quarter was a
significant improvement.
Trading in the local bourse was bullish at the start of the
period‐in‐review, breaching the 4,500 benchmark
several times in the first half of the quarter before
turning bearish as the quarter closed. Moody’s and Fitch
Ratings’ upgrade of the country’s sovereign credit
ratings in June, a better‐than‐expected fiscal
performance in first half of the year, optimism about
local corporate earnings in the second quarter and
higher investor demand for mining stocks as gold prices
rose helped the PSEi set several historic highs and
closed in July at 4,503.63 index points, which is higher
than the end‐June level by 5.0 percent and y‐t‐d by 7.2
percent.
However, trading sentiments were dampened in August
thru September as fears of another global recession
snapped investors’ buying mood following the S&P’s
sovereign rating downgrade of the US in August and
Italy in September, and concerns that France may be
next to lose its triple‐A rating. The contraction in China’s
manufacturing sector for the third straight month and
Germany’s retail sales in September further crystallized
fears about stalled global recovery. Investors’ concern
about Europe’s debt crisis spreading amidst the seeming
lack of a credible solution to its deepening debt troubles
further pushed global stocks lower during the period
Higher risk aversion results in volatile trading in August and September.
Daily PSEiJanuary 2004 – 28 September 20112011
700
1 ,000
1 ,300
1 ,600
1 ,900
2 ,200
2 ,500
2 ,800
3 ,100
3 ,400
3 ,700
4 ,000
4 ,300
4 ,600
2004 200 5 200 6 2007 200 8 2 009 2010 2011
Third Quarter 2011
31
and the PSEi to its lowest since early September 2010 at
3,721.22 index points on 26 September 2011. Moreover,
reports of the deceleration in the Philippine GDP growth
in the second quarter contributed to investors’ more
cautious trading stance in the local bourse. In August,
the PSEi fell by 3.4 percent month‐on‐month to
4,348.50 index points and, in September, it dropped by
8.0 percent to 3,999.65 index points, which was
4.8 percent lower than the level posted in end‐2010.
Amidst generally bearish sentiments during the quarter,
foreign investors withdrew from the local bourse to post
net sales amounting to P5.6 billion. This is a sharp
reversal from the P19.7 billion net purchases recorded
in the second quarter of 2011. The withdrawal of foreign
investors from the stock market saw the ratio of foreign
transactions to total transactions decline to
35.1 percent from July to September from 41.6 percent
in the preceding three months.
Stock market capitalization similarly declined by
8.0 percent, q‐o‐q, to reach P8.2 trillion at the close of
the third quarter of 2011.8 Only one firm debuted at the
Exchange during the period – Philex Petroleum
Corporation, a unit of Philex Mining Corporation. Philex
Petroleum listed 1.7 billion common shares by way of
introduction in September.9
Notwithstanding bearish sentiments during the period‐
in‐review, market activity was robust. Volume turnover
went up by 79.8 percent q‐o‐q to an average of
8 Total market capitalization measures the aggregate value of the issued shares of listed firms in the Philippine Stock Exchange. 9 Listing by way of introduction does not require an initial public offering. However, Philex Petroleum is required to offer shares to the public within the next 12 months.
Foreign investors withdraw from the local bourse, reflecting the market’s bearish tone.
…while other stock market indicators improve.
Stock market capitalization declines...
Third Quarter 2011
32
6.8 billion shares daily transactions in the third quarter,
while value turnover increased by 10.5 percent to an
average of P6.1 billion daily transactions for the same
period. The average price‐earnings (P/E) ratio similarly
improved slightly from 14.99 in the previous quarter to
15.00 during the quarter in review.10 However, m‐o‐m,
the P/E ratio deteriorated sharply from 15.38 at the
close of the previous quarter to 13.81 at the close of the
quarter‐in‐review, reflecting the bearish outlook on the
global economy.
Stock markets in the Asia‐Pacific region turned bearish
in the third quarter.11 All stock indices of the nine
markets monitored deteriorated from July to September
relative to the preceding three months. The decline was
led by Hong Kong (13.2 percent), followed by Australia
(9.8 percent), China (9.4 percent), Singapore
(7.5 percent), Malaysia (6.2 percent), New Zealand
(4.3 percent), Thailand (2.8 percent), Indonesia
(0.2 percent) and the Philippines (0.03 percent).
Bond Market
Size and Composition12
Local currency (LCY) bonds issued by both the public and
the private sectors amounted to P460.3 billion during
10 The P/E ratio looks at the relationship between the stock price and the company’s earnings. It is computed as the ratio of market capitalization over the last four quarters’ net income. Essentially, it gives an idea of what investors are willing to pay for the company’s earnings. A higher P/E ratio is taken as an indication that investors have high hopes for the future and have bid up the price of stocks in expectation of receiving higher future earnings. Conversely, a lower P/E ratio may indicate a “vote of no confidence” by investors or it could mean that investors have overlooked or have yet to act on the market’s true worth. 11 The nine stock markets monitored for this report include: Australia, New Zealand, China, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Malaysia. 12 This refers to the peso‐denominated bond issuances by both public and private sectors. Public sector issuances of LCY bonds include issuances in the primary market and rollovers of maturing series which were issued by the BTr and agencies owned and controlled by the government. This excludes issuances by the central bank.
Local currency bond issuances increase.
P/E ratioIn billion shares/pesos
Market Turnover and P/E Ratio
5 00
1,5 00
2,5 00
3,5 00
4,5 00
5,5 00
6,5 00
Q 1 Q2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 30
2
4
6
8
1 0
1 2
1 4
1 6
1 8Av g. D ai ly Vo lu me T urno v e r ( In m illio n s h are s) , LH SAv g . D ai ly Valu e T urno v e r ( In PhP m illio n ) , LH S
Av g . P /E r at io , R H S
2008 2009 2010 2011Source: Phil ippine Stock Exchange
Regional markets also reflect bearish sentiments.
Third Quarter 2011
33
the third quarter of 2011, more than twice the previous
quarter’s issuances and up by 48.4 percent, y‐o‐y.
Public sector issuances aggregated P452.3 billion,
almost thrice as much as previous quarter’s
P178.0 billion. The rise in public sector issuances was
due to the domestic bond exchange conducted in July as
part of the government’s liability management program
to smoothen its debt maturity profile by extending the
maturity of existing peso liabilities and by establishing
liquid benchmarks at the long end of the yield curve.
The NG accepted P292.5 billion of eligible bonds
tendered by investors in exchange for the P255.8 billion
20‐year and the P67.6 billion 10‐year bond issuance of
the NG.13
Meanwhile, the private corporations reduced its
borrowings at the local debt market as the sector’s LCY
bond issuances declined by 75.7 percent to P32.9 billion
on a q‐o‐q basis.
In terms of market share, the public sector continued to
dominate the domestic bond market during the quarter,
accounting for 98.3 percent of total bond issuances
while the private sector comprised the remaining
balance.
Bonds issued by the BTr accounted for the bulk of
total public issuances which were mostly in the form
of Fixed‐Rate T‐bonds and T‐bills. There were no LCY
13 The bond swap achieved a cashflow and debt service relief of P152.6 in the medium term. The transaction also extended the average maturity of the portfolio of eligible bonds by 37.9 percent or approximately 2.08 years.
Local Currency Bond Market IssuancesBy Issuer (July – September 2011)
Public (BTr & GOCCs)
98%
Private Corporations
2%
Public sector continues to capture significant market share.
Third Quarter 2011
34
bond issuances from GOCCs during the review
period.
Private sector bond issuances consisted largely of
bonds and notes, with issuances made mostly by
real estate and financial firms.
Primary Market 14
Demand for Philippine government T‐bills and T‐bonds
in the primary auctions conducted in the third quarter
of 2011 remained robust with investors tendering more
than three times that of the NG’s programmed
borrowings for both short‐ and long‐dated securities.
Amount of tenders reached P382.5 billion against NG’s
offerings of P108.0 billion. The NG accepted
P102.5 billion worth of T‐bills and T‐bonds while
rejecting P280 billion bids. During the quarter, yields
dropped to historic lows, enabling the NG to conduct
successful auctions by awarding in full the programmed
borrowings and even exceeding in their planned
borrowings for T‐bills.
Secondary Market
With the turmoil escalating in the US and European
markets, investors opted to park their funds in relatively
safe government bonds. This led trading at the
secondary market of both government and corporate
securities at the Fixed Income Exchange (FIE) to rise to
P1,687 billion in the third quarter, twice as much as the
previous quarter’s P770.9 billion, although down by
14 The discussion includes primary market for government issuances only.
Trading at the secondary market increases.
Results of GS AuctionsIn billion pesos
2011 Offerings Tenders Accepted Bids
Rejected Bids
First Quarter 105.0 210.1 71.1 139.0 T-bills 51.0 130.5 42.6 87.9 T-bonds 54.0 79.6 28.5 51.1
Second Quarter 117.0 323.5 94.0 229.5 T-bills 63.0 135.9 40.0 95.9 T-bonds 54.0 187.6 54.0 133.6
Third Quarter 108.0 382.5 102.5 280.0 T-bills 54.0 177.5 48.5 128.9 T-bonds 54.0 205.0 54.0 151.0
Total 330.0 916.1 267.7 648.5 Source: Bureau of the TreasuryNote: Excludes rollovers of maturing series.
Third Quarter 2011
35
24.1 percent on a year‐to‐date basis. Investors
increased their preference for fixed income securities
over holding risky assets such as equities as the market
turned risk averse on heightened concerns over the
spillover effects of prolonged sovereign debt problems
in the US and Europe.
Among the government bonds traded, Fixed‐Rate
Treasury Notes (FXTNs) remained the most liquid
instrument traded at the FIE while PSALM continued to
dominate trading among corporate bonds.
International Bond Market
Given heightened global economic uncertainty and
market volatility, both the public and private sectors
opted to put off their plans to tap the international debt
markets for their funding needs. The NG postponed its
planned US$3.0 billion global peso and US dollar bond
offerings, tapping instead the local debt market to help
cover an outstanding US$500 million external debt
requirement for this year.15
Credit Risk Assessment
Following the upgrade made by Moody’s and Fitch in
the previous quarter, S&P reaffirmed the Philippines
foreign‐ and local‐currency sovereign ratings at “BB/B”
and “BB+/B”, respectively, two notches below
investment grade with a stable outlook.16 The rating
15 The BSP already approved a twin offer of global peso bonds and US dollar bonds of as much as US$3.0 billion as part of its debt swap program and to fill its remaining foreign borrowing needs this year. 16 On 15 June, Moody’s Investor Services raised the Philippine foreign and local currency long‐term bond ratings to Ba2 from Ba3 with a stable outlook. The upgrade brought the country’s ratings at par with Standard and Poor’s at two notches below a coveted investment‐grade rating. Fitch
PDEx Trade Volume(In billion pesos)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1Q 20
08
3Q 20
08
1Q 20
09
3Q 20
09
1Q 20
10
3Q 20
10
1Q 20
11
3Q 20
11
S&P reaffirms Philippine sovereign credit rating.
Third Quarter 2011
36
was supported by the country’s strong external liquidity,
low external liability position, and a record of
moderately strong economic growth. However, S&P also
noted that the country’s rating was constrained by the
relatively low income level, weak fiscal profile, and high,
although improving, public sector debt and interest
burden.17
Sovereign Spreads
Despite the outlook upgrade, investors placed a higher
premium in holding Philippine debt papers as reflected
in the general widening of debt spreads in the third
quarter of 2011. The EMBI+ Philippine spreads, or the
extra yield investors demand to hold Philippine debt
securities over US Treasuries, averaged 208 basis points
(bps) during the review period, wider than the second
quarter’s average of 181 bps. Similarly, the credit
default swap (CDS) spread, or the cost of insuring the
country’s 5‐year sovereign bonds against default, rose
to 163 bps from 133 bps in Q2 2011. Against
neighboring economies, the Philippine CDS traded
narrower than Indonesia’s 170 bps but wider than
Malaysia’s 119 bps and Thailand’s 145 bps.
Threats of contagion from the turbulence in global
financial markets contributed largely to the widening
trend of the country’s debt spreads. The sovereign
credit rating downgrades of US18 and Japan19 in August,
seconded the move on 23 June with its upgrade on the country’s credit rating to BB+ from BB with a stable outlook, one notch below investment grade. 17 An investment grade rating would lower the country’s cost of borrowing and servicing debt as well as widen the pool of potential investors in its debt securities market. 18 On 5 August, the S&P downgraded the US long‐term credit rating to AA+. During the same day, Moody’s and Fitch have maintained the triple “A” US credit rating. However, in Moody’s 15 July 2011 report, the rating agency noted a possible downgrade unless progress towards a budget that includes long‐term deficit reduction is achieved.
Debt spreads widen due to threats of contagion from external developments.
Philippine Sovereign Credit RatingsAs of September 2011
Rating Agency
Local Currency
LT/ST
Foreign Currency
LT/STOutlook
S&P1 BB+/B BB/B Stable
Moody's Ba2/n.a. Ba2/n.a. Stable
Fitch BBB‐/n.a. BB+/B StableSource: Reuters1 On 29 July 2011, the S&P reaffirmed its sovereign ratings.
100
300
500
700
900
Jul-08
Sep-08
Dec-0
8Mar-
09Jun
-09Sep
-09De
c-09Mar-
10Jun
-10Sep
-10De
c-10Mar-
11Jun
-11Sep
-11
EMBI+ Philippines
EMBI+ Global
JP Morgan EMBI+ Sovereign Bond Spreads (In basis points)
Third Quarter 2011
37
combined with persistent worries over global economic
slowdown and solvency of euro zone governments and
financial institutions, spurred flight from riskier
emerging market assets, including ROPs, that led
spreads to widen anew. The series of disappointing
economic data releases from advanced economies
likewise contributed to the widening of debt spreads as
concerns grew that the debt crises in US and Europe
may curb global economic expansion. Market fears
escalated on concerns over the ability of political parties
in these countries to agree on sensible strategies that
will encourage employment and reduce indebtedness.
Credit spreads peaked on 26 September, the widest
since June 2009, as financial markets priced‐in Italy’s20
downgrade alongside worries of a possible default by
Greece.
Although episodes of spreads narrowing occurred in the
latter part of August and September on positive
speculation that the US Fed will intervene to spur
economic growth and on renewed hopes following
progress made by European leaders in resolving the
region’s debt crisis, debt spreads remained at peak
levels as uncertainties lingered with the absence of
concrete actions from policymakers to stem current
advanced economies’ sovereign debt problems.
Payments and Settlements System
In the third quarter of 2011, the total volume of
transactions in the Philippine Payments and Settlements
19 On 24 August, Moody’s downgraded Japan’s sovereign credit rating by one step to Aa3 with a stable outlook. 20 On 21 September, S&P lowered Italy’s credit rating to A from A+ with a negative outlook on concerns that weakening economic growth and a “fragile” government could mean that the nation will struggle to reduce the euro region’s second largest debt burden.
PhilPaSS transactions rise.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-1
1Sep
-11
Philippines Indonesia
Thailand Malaysia
Philippine Senior 5‐year CDS Spreads (In basis points)
Third Quarter 2011
38
System (PhilPaSS) stood at 317,835, an increase of
15.3 percent from the previous quarter’s level. The rise
in the volume of transactions was due to the increase in
the following transactions: sales and purchases of GS
(112.3 percent), e‐rediscounting loan transactions
(41.4 percent), overseas Filipinos (OF) remittances
coursed through the PhilPaSS‐REMIT system
(10.3 percent), interbank lending/payment
(4.7 percent), cash withdrawal from banks (4.2 percent),
and ATM network payments (2.7 percent).
The total value of transactions also recorded a q‐o‐q
increase of 13.4 percent to P86.89 trillion from
P76.63 trillion in the previous quarter. The increase in
the total transaction value was due to the growth in the
following transactions: sales and purchases of GS
(145.0 percent), eDvP transactions (80.1 percent),
RRP/SDA transactions of the BSP Treasury Department
(23.3 percent), OF remittances via the PhilPaSS‐Remit
system (14.2 percent), ATM network payments
(3.8 percent), and cash deposit transactions
(1.2 percent).
On a y‐o‐y basis, the value and volume of transactions
accelerated by 67.5 percent and 18.9 percent,
respectively.
As a result of the increased volume of PhilPaSS
transactions and banks’ request for EFTIS user
registration/reinstallation, the total revenues for the
third quarter derived from PhilPaSS operations
expanded by 14.7 percent to P41.5 million from the
previous quarter’s P36.2 million. However, on a y‐o‐y
PhilPaSS Transactions2010
Q3 Q2 Q3 Q‐o‐Q Y‐o‐YVolume 317,835 275,586 267,315 15.3 18.9Value (In trillion PhP) 86.89 76.63 51.86 13.4 67.5Transaction Fees (In Million PhP) 41.5 36.2 42.5 14.7 ‐2.4Source: Payments and Settlements Office, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Growth rates (%)2011
Third Quarter 2011
39
basis, total revenues collected were lower by
2.4 percent.
F. External Sector
Balance of Payments
The balance of payments (BOP) surplus increased to
US$4.7 billion in the third quarter of 2011, reflecting a
42.3 percent increment from the surplus during the
same quarter a year ago of US$3.3 billion. The
considerable improvement in the country’s external
payments position was due mainly to higher net inflows
in the capital and financial account. The current account
also remained in surplus, buoyed primarily by gains
registered in services, income and current transfers.
Despite the prevailing uncertainties in the global
economic environment and greater risk aversion
following intensified financial strains in the Euro Zone
and the continuing weak U.S. economic performance,
activity in the Asian region remained solid, even as it has
moderated. As economic worries continue to beset
advanced economies, strong capital inflows to emerging
economies with brighter growth prospects, including the
Philippines, has continued. Large capital inflows along
with sustained inflows from remittances and business
process outsourcing (BPO) receipts compensated for the
weak trade performance during the review quarter
resulting from the slower demand in advanced
economies that led to broad‐based decline in industrial
production and export growth across Asia.
BOP position registers a higher surplus in Q3 2011.
Balance of Payments ( in million US$)
Growth2011 2010 Rate (%)
Current Account 2033 3392 ‐40.1Capital & Fin'l Account 2254 1717 31.3Net Unclassified Items 418 ‐1803 123.2
Overall BOP 4705 3306 42.3
Q3
Third Quarter 2011
40
Pet ro leum1.0 %
Ot hers2 2 .9 %
Fruit s & veg et ab les
2 .2 % M achinery6 .4 %
Garment s4 .2 %
Elect ro nics52 .4 %
M ineral p rod uct s
5.6 %
Ot her ag ro -b ased1.9 %C o co nut
3 .4 %
Expo rts by M ajo r C o mmo dity Gro up Q3 2011
So urce: N atio nal Stat ist ics Off ice (N SO)
Current Account. The current account remained in
surplus at US$2.0 billion, equivalent to 3.7 percent of
GDP. This was, however, 40.1 percent lower than the
surplus of US$3.4 billion in the comparable quarter in
2010. The sustained current account surplus was
supported by increased net receipts in current transfers,
services and income, which mitigated the widening of
the trade‐in‐goods deficit.
Trade‐in‐Goods. The trade‐in‐goods deficit at
US$3.5 billion was more than twofold the US$1.7 billion
deficit posted a year ago as exports of goods declined
faster (by 15.5 percent) than imports of goods (by
2.2 percent). Weak external demand in advanced
economies following the worsening stresses in foreign
financial markets resulted in the moderation in trading
activity.
Exports of Goods. Exports of goods dropped to
US$12.2 billion in Q3 2011 from US$14.5 billion in the
same quarter last year as shipments of electronic
products declined. After a positive start in the first
quarter of 2011, trading activity slowed down in the
second quarter and further dropped in the third quarter
due to the trade‐channel effects, particularly the
sluggish demand from the country’s major trading
partners such as the U.S., Singapore, Hong Kong and
some countries in Europe (e.g., the Netherlands and
Germany).21
21 Based on BPM5 concept (i.e., excluding from the National Statistics Office (NSO) foreign trade figures those goods that did not involve change in ownership)
Exports of goods register a significant decline.
Current account surplus declines during the quarter.
Trade gap widens as the contraction in exports outpace that of imports.
Third Quarter 2011
41
The two major commodity groups which registered
downtrend during the quarter were as follows:
Manufactured products exports posted a
contraction of 20.9 percent to US$10.3 billion
compared to US$13.0 billion last year due primarily
to the weak performance of electronic products
exports, comprising more than 60 percent of total
manufactured products exports. The 32.8 percent
decline of the country’s electronic exports (to
US$6.5 billion) mirrored the growing uncertainties
in the global environment caused by a confluence
of factors, e.g., supply‐chain disruptions given the
catastrophic earthquake in Japan, and the
slowdown in demand from the U.S. and some parts
of Europe. Most electronic products, notably
semiconductors, electronic data processing,
communication/radar, control and instrumentation,
and medical/industrial instrumentation, registered
double‐digit declines. In particular, semiconductors,
which represented about 70.0 percent of total
electronic exports, dropped by 40.2 percent due to
the contraction in both volume and price,
consistent with the downward trend in the book‐to‐
bill ratio in major electronic production hubs like
Japan and the U.S., which registered a year‐on‐year
drop in end‐September 2011 to 0.71 from 1.03 in
the comparable period a year ago. Softer demand
for semiconductors in Q3 2011 was also reported
by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) as
worldwide sales of semiconductors slid by
1.7 percent in September 2011 due to sluggish sales
in the U.S., Europe and Japan. However, other
Third Quarter 2011
42
electronic products took up part of the slack, with
higher shipments of office equipment, consumer
electronics, telecommunication and
medical/industrial instrumentation, and automotive
electronics.
Coconut products exports slightly decreased (by
less than 1.0 percent) to US$425 million, owing to
lower sales of coconut oil (by 12.2 percent) and
copra meal/cake (33.3 percent) following the
decline in export volume by 48.8 percent and
57.6 percent, respectively. The decline in coconut
oil exports was due to tight supply of raw materials
(dried coconut meat or copra) in the domestic
market. The higher export prices of coconut oil,
desiccated coconut and copra meal/cake have
made buyers shift to less costly alternative like
palm kernel oil. The Netherlands was the leading
consumer of coconut products during the quarter.
Meanwhile, shipments of agro‐based products,
notably fruits and vegetables, sugar, forest and other
agro‐based products, rose. Growth in these non‐
electronic exports was due to increased demand from
Japan, other parts of Asia, and North America, as well
as from higher domestic production, and higher prices
in the world market.
Except for manufactures and coconut products, all
major commodity groups posted large export gains
due to increases in both volume and prices of
products. Higher export earnings from the following
commodities were registered during the quarter:
Third Quarter 2011
43
Sugar and products exports increased appreciably
to US$138 million (by 820.0 percent), as a result of
higher exports of centrifugal and refined sugar to
the U.S. The other major buyers of the country’s
sugar products included Taiwan, Japan, South
Korea and Indonesia.
Petroleum products exports grew by 47.5 percent,
owing to increased shipments of naphtha and
reformates, other fuel oils, and gas oils with higher
demand from Singapore, Japan and Malaysia.
Fruits and vegetables exports expanded by
49.2 percent due to strong demand for bananas
(by 34.1 percent), canned pineapple (by
78.9 percent) and mangoes (by 33.3 percent)
coupled with improved world prices for these
products. Exports of bananas led the fruits and
vegetables exports at US$122 million, accounting
for about 44.2 percent of the total fruits and
vegetables exports, and were mainly shipped to
Japan.
Mineral products exports at US$693 million rose
by 37.2 percent from US$505 million last year.
Copper metal was the top export earner at
US$335 million, higher by 73.6 percent from the
previous year’s level owing to strong foreign
demand and the upward trend of mineral prices in
the world market. The World Bank forecasts that
metal prices could increase by 20 percent in 2011
due to strong demand, particularly from China,
and supply constraints for some metals such as
copper and tin. In addition, shipments of gold
improved by 104.3 percent as the international
market price of gold more than doubled to
Third Quarter 2011
44
US$1,531 per ounce, largely influenced by
intensified uncertainties in the global economy
and the weaker dollar. The long‐term prospects of
the gold market remain as strong demand
continues to rise, with the stresses in the global
financial markets inducing investors to invest
more in precious metals in 2012.
Other agro‐based products exports rose by
24.9 percent due to increased shipments of fish,
fresh or preserved (5.5 percent), particularly
shrimps and prawns (30.8 percent). Other export
gainers were tobacco (100.0 percent) and natural
rubber (84.6 percent).
Forest products exports improved by
150.0 percent due to the continued favorable
world prices of lumber at US$73.0/cubic
meter from US$29.0/cubic meter last year.
Meanwhile, other manufactured products which
posted higher export earnings were as follows:
Machinery and transport equipment receipts
went up by 28.1 percent to reach
US$802 million, on account of increased
exports of tankers, parts/accessories/gear
boxes of road and other vehicles, and other
parts of airconditioning machines;
Garments exports grew by 10.7 percent to
US$528 million, sustaining the growth trend
since the second quarter of 2010. The US
continued to be the top buyer of Philippine‐
made garments, accounting for almost
Third Quarter 2011
45
50.0 percent share of total garments exports.
Chemicals exports rose by 28.2 percent to
reach US$468 million, on account of higher
shipments of glycerol and lauryl alcohol
(chiefly used for pharmaceutical formulations)
to Japan and Korea, as well as toluene and
benzene and propene (mainly used as
industrial solvents) to China and Taiwan.
Wood manufactures exports, valued at
US$440 million, registered the highest growth
of 64.2 percent among manufactured
products. Large shipments of builder’s joinery
and carpentry of wood, including cellular
wood panels during the quarter were
exported to Japan.
Processed food and beverages sustained a
positive growth of 5.1 percent at
US$291 million due mainly to increased
shipments of powdered milk and cream.
Other manufactured products likewise reported
uptrends, such as iron and steel (by 20.5 percent),
furniture and fixtures (by 9.5 percent), non‐
metallic mineral manufactures (by 2.6 percent),
and footwear (by 50.0 percent).
Imports of Goods. Imports of goods dropped slightly by
2.2 percent to US$15.8 billion, reflecting the slowdown
in domestic economic activity, particularly production of
goods for export.22 Raw materials and intermediate
22 Based on BPM5 concept (i.e., excluding from the National Statistics Office (NSO) foreign trade figures those goods that did not involve change in ownership); imports per BOP also reflect: a) upward adjustments on the valuation of consigned raw materials; b) OF remittances in kind; and c) military imports, among others.
Imports of goods contracts moderately.
Third Quarter 2011
46
goods imports posted a contraction of 21.0 percent to
US$7.6 billion as procurement of both semi‐processed
and unprocessed raw materials dropped by 21.5 percent
and 15.1 percent, respectively. In particular, the
importation of materials/accessories for the
manufacture of electrical and electronic products valued
at US$3.4 billion (comprising about 49.1 percent of
semi‐processed raw materials) fell by 43.8 percent,
reflecting the continued weak performance of electronic
exports caused by lower demand from Singapore,
Malaysia and Japan on account of sluggish global
demand for electronics.
On the other hand, the following commodity groups
posted increments as follows:
Mineral fuels and lubricants imports grew by
51.8 percent to reach US$3.2 billion due to the
continued rise in world prices, particularly
petroleum crude (from US$74.73/barrel in
Q3 2010 to US$110.93/barrel in Q3 2011) and
other mineral fuels (from US$89.65/barrel to
US$123.39/barrel).
Capital goods increased by 22.9 percent to
US$2.8 billion, as a result of higher imports of
power generating & specialized machines (by
22.9 percent), telecommunication equipment &
electrical machines (by 58.7 percent), land
transport equipment excluding passenger cars
and motorized cycles (by 41.6 percent), and
aircraft, ships & boats (by 96.2 percent).
Consumer goods purchases grew by 2.9 percent,
mainly due to increased importation of durable
Capital Goods1 7.6 %
Raw Mats.48.8 %
Minerals20.3 %
Consumer Goods1 1. 7 %
Special Transactions
1 .6 %
Impo rts by M ajo r C o mmo dity Gro up Q3 2011
(P ercent Share)
Source: National Statistics Office (NSO)
Third Quarter 2011
47
commodity items (by 14.3 percent) such as
passenger cars & motorized cycles, home
appliances and miscellaneous manufactures. On
the other hand, non‐durable imports dropped by
5.5 percent due to reduced rice imports following
the decline in both import volume and price at
26.0 percent and 20.7 percent, respectively.
Trade‐in‐Services. Net receipts from trade‐in‐services
rose by 15.5 percent to US$961 million in Q3 2011 from
US$832 million in the comparable quarter last year.
Growth was mainly driven by the receipts from business
process outsourcing (BPO)‐related transactions which
led to the 14.4 percent expansion in miscellaneous
business, professional, and technical services during the
quarter in review. Also supporting the improvement of
the services account were communication (by
5.3 percent) and insurance services (by 8.9 percent).
The BPO industry continued to be a key growth driver
for the services sector. It is one of the country’s key
sunshine industries and a major job creator. According
to BPAP’s Road Map 2011‐2016, the BPO sector has the
potential to reach US$20‐US$25 billion in yearly revenue
by 2016.
Income. Net receipts in the income account increased to
US$176 million in Q3 2011 compared to US$93 million a
year ago. The 89.2 percent expansion was due to higher
earnings of resident overseas Filipino (OF) workers
amounting to US$1.5 billion, up by 12.1 percent from
the year‐ago level. This favorable outcome more than
compensated for the increased net payments in the
Net receipts from services improve appreciably.
Net receipts in the income account post a hefty increase.
Third Quarter 2011
48
investment income account (by 6.3 percent) at
US$1.3 billion during the quarter. This was brought
about by higher net payments of: a) dividends to equity
portfolio investors abroad (by 48.9 percent) by resident
corporations; and b) interest on bonds issued by
corporations (18.6 percent) and by banks
(166.7 percent). Meanwhile, reinvested earnings and
undistributed branch profits also recorded higher net
payments (by 332.3 percent) to US$134 million during
the quarter.
Current Transfers. Net current transfers reached
US$4.4 billion, representing a 7.5 percent increment
from the previous year’s level of US$4.1 billion. Robust
inflows of remittances from non‐resident OFs
amounting to US$4.4 billion provided stable support to
the expansion in current transfers during the quarter.
OF remittances continued to be an important
contributor in solidifying the country’s economic
fundamentals amidst lingering global economic
uncertainties. This was due in large part to sustained
demand for Filipino workers abroad. Meanwhile, the
wider remittance network of banks and financial
institutions has provided both remitters and
beneficiaries with more diverse and efficient money
transfer channels and services and has encouraged the
increased use of the banking system as remittance
conduits.
Capital and Financial Account
The capital and financial account posted net inflows of
US$2.3 billion in the third quarter of 2011, considerably
Net current transfers continue to expand.
Capital and financial account improves markedly.
Third Quarter 2011
49
higher than the US$1.7 billion net inflows recorded in
the same period last year. Strong macroeconomic
fundamentals and positive developments in the country
– including upgrades of the country’s sovereign credit
ratings by Moody’s and Fitch in June 2011 and Standard
and Poor’s in July 2011, and optimism about local
corporate earnings – continued to encourage inflows
into the country. Net inflows of other investments,
increasing threefold during the quarter compared to last
year’s level, drove the growth in the capital and financial
account. Meanwhile, the spillover effects of the
intensified financial turbulence in the euro area and the
weak recovery in the U.S. were manifested in the
slowdown in net inflows of portfolio investments and
the reversal to net outflows of direct investments.
Capital account. Net inflows in the capital account
amounted to US$51 million during the review quarter,
up from the US$32 million net inflows in the same
period last year on account of higher transfers to the
private sector.23
Direct investment. Direct investments registered net
outflows of US$94 million in Q3 2011, a reversal of the
US$281 million net inflows recorded in the same
quarter last year. Foreign direct investments
registered net outflows of US$63 million due to
negative balances posted in the equity and other
capital accounts. Non‐residents’ net equity capital
investments registered net outflows of
US$120 million, largely on account of a sizeable
23 The capital account consists largely of capital transfers. Capital transfers involve the change in the stock of assets attributed to transactions such as disposal and acquisition of fixed assets. By contrast, current transfers involve transactions that affect the level of disposable income and influence consumption of goods and services.
Direct investments reverse to net outflows.
Net capital inflows rise.
Third Quarter 2011
50
purchase of a non‐resident corporation’s shares in a
local mining company by its local partner. On a gross
basis, equity capital placements reached
US$232 million during the review quarter, which were
channeled largely to the banking, real estate, and
manufacturing sectors. Non‐residents’ investments in
other capital (consisting mainly of intercompany
borrowing/lending between foreign direct investors
and their subsidiaries/affiliates in the Philippines)
posted net outflows of US$77 million from
US$221 million net inflows in the same quarter a year
ago. Reinvested earnings, on the other hand, realized
higher inflows of US$134 million from only
US$31 million in Q3 2010. Meanwhile, residents’
investments abroad posted lower net outflows of
US$31 million during the quarter relative to the same
period a year ago.
Portfolio investment. Net inflows of portfolio
investments reached US$715 million in the third
quarter of 2011, 34.1 percent lower than the
US$1.1 billion net inflows registered in the same
quarter a year ago. Portfolio investment flows into the
country slowed down from the quarter‐ and year‐ago
levels following heightened global risk aversion amid
fears of Europe’s deepening debt crisis and
decelerating world GDP growth.
Significant inflows during the review quarter included:
a) Non‐residents’ net placements in peso‐
denominated government securities
(US$760 million);
Net inflows of portfolio investments decline.
Third Quarter 2011
51
b) Non‐residents’ net placements in bonds/notes
issued by local banks (US$322 million);
c) Net purchase by non‐residents through secondary
market trading of Philippine debt papers originally
issued abroad by the NG (US$311 million); and
d) Resident banks’ maturing placements in money
market instruments abroad (US$100 million).
These inflows were, in turn, partly offset by the
following outflows:
a) Repayment of non‐residents’ maturing
bonds/notes issued by domestic corporates
(US$593 million); and
b) Residents’ net placements in bonds/notes issued
abroad by non‐residents (US$219 million).
Financial derivatives. Trading in financial derivatives
registered a net loss of US$41 million in the review
quarter, lower than the US$118 million net loss posted
in the same quarter last year.
Other Investments. The other investment account
realized net inflows amounting to US$1.6 billion in the
third quarter, more than three times higher than the
US$437 million net inflows in the same quarter last year.
The following transactions accounted for the net inflows
during the quarter:
a) Net placements by non‐residents of currencies and
deposits in local banks (US$2.0 billion);
b) Net loan availments by residents from non‐
residents (US$282 million); and
Financial derivatives’ trading records net loss.
Net inflows of other investments rise sharply.
Third Quarter 2011
52
c) Net loan repayments by non‐residents to local
banks (US$374 million).
Meanwhile, the following outflows partly offset the
above inflows:
a) Residents’ net placements of currency and deposits
abroad (US$601 million); and
b) Accounts receivables by local banks from non‐
residents (US$233 million).
International Reserves
The country’s gross international reserves (GIR)
continued to strengthen, increasing by about 40 percent
year‐on‐year to achieve the level of US$75.2 billion as of
end‐September 2011. This makes the GIR as of the first
nine months of the year sufficient to cover 11.1 months’
worth of imports of goods and payments of services and
income. The corresponding reserve adequacy ratios at
this GIR level were 10.5 times the country’s short‐term
external debt based on original maturity and 6.3 times
based on residual maturity.
The sustained increase in the GIR level was due mainly
to the foreign exchange operations and income from
investments abroad of the BSP. These inflows were
partially offset by payments by the NG and the BSP of
their maturing foreign exchange obligations as well as
revaluation losses on the BSP's gold holdings on account
of the decline in the price of gold in the international
market.
GIR sustains uptrend.
Gross International ReservesGross International ReservesIn million US dollars
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep2009 2010 2011
Third Quarter 2011
53
The bulk of the BSP’s reserves, or 87.4 percent of the
total GIR (including gold), were held in foreign
investments while 9.9 percent were in gold holdings.
The remaining 2.7 percent of total reserves were the
combined holdings of foreign exchange as well as
Special Drawing Rights and the BSP’s reserve position in
the IMF.
In terms of currency composition, 74.3 percent of the
total reserves (excluding gold) were denominated in US
dollars; 16.3 percent were in yen; 3.9 percent were in
euro; and the balance of 5.5 percent were in SDR and
other currencies.
The net international reserves (NIR), which include
revaluation of reserve assets, amounted to
US$75.2 billion as of end‐September 2011, higher by
US$21.4 billion compared to last year’s NIR of
US$53.7 billion. The NIR refers to the difference
between the BSP's GIR and total short‐term liabilities.
Exchange Rate
Trends in the Dollar‐Peso Rate
The peso continued to strengthen amid heightened risk
aversion stemming from the persistent worries over the
sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the risk of contagion,
as well as the weak growth prospects of the global
economy. The peso appreciated by 1.2 percent to
average P42.75/US$1 in the third quarter of 2011 from
The peso continues to strengthen.
Third Quarter 2011
54
P43.24/US$1 in the previous quarter.24 On a y‐o‐y basis,
the peso strengthened by 5.9 percent relative to the
P45.27/US$1 average in the same period in 2010
(Table 13). The sustained foreign exchange inflows
arising in part from OF remittances and continued
portfolio and direct investments, remained the
fundamental drivers of the peso’s buoyancy. 25
In July 2011, the peso regained strength as it
appreciated to an average of P42.81/US$1 on sustained
strong inflows of net portfolio investments stemming
from investor’s renewed interest on PSE‐listed securities
and fixed income investments.26 The local bourse
benefited from China’s sustained growth which helped
investors maintain their long‐term bullish views on
emerging Asian currencies. The peso was also propped
up by news of the country’s higher BOP surplus in the
first quarter of 2011.27 Likewise, the peso drew support
on news of Greece’s approval of its austerity measures
to avoid default which improved market sentiment.28
Nonetheless, the uncertainty on the success of these
measures, along with woes in the US debt ceiling
gridlock, stirred caution among investors and weighed
on the peso’s strength.
24 Dollar rates or the reciprocal of the peso‐dollar rates were used to compute for the percentage change. Figures were based on reference rates. 25 For the first nine months of the year, OF remittances expanded by 7.1 percent to US$11.8 billion, with remittances from land‐based and sea‐based workers rising by 5.3 percent and 14.1 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, for the period January to September 2011, transactions for foreign portfolio investments based on reports of custodian banks netted inflows of US$3.2 billion, 125.9 percent more than the US$1.4 billion recorded for the comparable period in 2010. Likewise, net FDI inflows for the first half of 2011 aggregated US$779 million, higher by 16.4 percent than the US$669 million net inflows recorded in the same period a year ago. 26 Transactions in registered foreign portfolio investments for the month of May 2011 yielded a net inflow of US$364 million. This level was 105.1 percent higher than the US$177.5 million posted in the comparable period in 2010. Investments in PSE‐listed shares for May reached US$886 million (or 58.0 percent of total registered investments), reflecting a growth of about 79.9 percent from the US$492 million recorded a year ago. 27 The balance of payments (BOP) registered a surplus of US$3.5 billion in the first quarter of 2011, more than double the US$1.3 billion surplus registered in the same period a year ago. 28 On 29 June 2011, the Greek parliament voted to sharply reduce government spending and sell off an array of national assets, staving off default on the country’s debt. (Source: New York Times).
Third Quarter 2011
55
The peso’s uptrend continued, although at a slower
pace, as the peso averaged stronger at P42.43/US$1 in
August 2011 compared to the previous month’s
average. The peso was buoyed up by the continued
inflow of OF remittances and FDI.29 The peso also
benefited from hedge funds’ long position on emerging
Asian currencies on optimism that the U.S. debt
stalemate has been resolved and data showing strong
economic growth in the region. However, news on the
NG’s below‐target revenue collection tempered the
peso’s further appreciation.30 Likewise S&P’s downgrade
of the US credit rating and concerns over a consequent
global economic slowdown weighed down on the
peso.31
In September 2011, the peso averaged weaker at
P43.02/US$1. The peso’s depreciation was due mainly
to the weakness in Asian equities and mounting
concerns over the debt crisis in Europe which dampened
risk appetite. These developments spurred dollar short‐
covering as investors sought safe‐haven assets amid
heightened risk aversion. However, the peso was
buoyed by the strong demand for peso assets from
macro funds and interbank speculators.32
On a y‐t‐d basis, the peso appreciated against the US
dollar by 0.3 percent as it closed at P43.72/US$1 on 30
September 2011,33 moving in tandem with the Japanese
29 Remittances from OFs coursed through banks reached US$9.6 billion in the first half of 2011, posting a year‐on‐year growth of 6.3 percent from the year‐ago level. In particular, remittances for the month of June registered a record high of US$1.7 billion, representing an increase of 7.0 percent from the level posted in the same month last year. Meanwhile, FDI in May 2011 yielded a net inflow of US$162 million, a turnaround from the US$31 million net outflow posted in the same month a year ago. 30 The Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) reported that the BIR missed its collection goal by 1 percent as the collected P73.79 billion (US$1.7 billion) fell short (by P 820 million) of its goal for July 2011. 31 On 5 August 2011, S&P downgraded US credit rating to AA+ from AAA. 32 Reuters. 33 Based on the last done deal in the afternoon.
Changes in Selected CurrenciesChanges in Selected Currencies
Appreciation/Depreciation ( ‐ )30 Dec 2010 vs. 30 Sep 2011
Japanese Yen 5.79
Malaysian Ringgit
3.51
Thai Baht
1.88
Singaporean Dollar
0.27Indonesian Rupiah
(1.00)Philippine Peso
(3.50)
Indian Rupee
(3.91)
New Taiwan Dollar (4.43)
South Korean Won (4.65)
Chinese Yuan
(8.62)
Currencies
Third Quarter 2011
56
yen, the Chinese yuan, and the Indonesian rupiah which
appreciated vis‐à‐vis the US dollar. Meanwhile the rest
of the Asian currencies depreciated against the US
dollar.
On a real, trade‐weighted basis, the peso lost external
price competitiveness against the baskets of currencies
of major trading partners (MTPs) and competitor
countries in both the broad and narrow series in the
third quarter of 2011 from the previous quarter. 34 This
reflects mainly the combined effects of the nominal
appreciation of the peso and the widening inflation
differential relative to those of major, broad, and
narrow competitor countries, which led to an increase in
the real effective exchange rate (REER) index of the peso
by 2.25 percent, 1.8 percent, and 2.0 percent,
respectively.35
On a year‐on‐year basis, the peso lost external price
competitiveness in September 2011 against the basket
of currencies of MTPs and competitor countries in the
narrow series as the peso appreciated in real terms by
2.6 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively. This
developed due to the widening inflation differential,
along with the nominal appreciation of the peso against
these baskets of currencies. Meanwhile, the peso gained
external price competitiveness against the basket of
competitor currencies in the broad series as the nominal
depreciation of the peso against this basket of
34 The basket of the major trading partners is composed of the currencies of US, Japan, the Euro area and the United Kingdom. The broad basket of competitor countries comprises the currencies of Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Hong Kong while the narrow basket is composed of the currencies of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand only. 35 The REER index represents the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) index of the peso, adjusted for inflation rate differentials with the countries whose currencies comprise the NEER index basket. A decrease in the REER index indicates some gain in the external price competitiveness of the peso, while a significant increase indicates the opposite. The NEER index, meanwhile, represents the weighted average exchange rate of the peso vis‐à‐vis a basket of foreign currencies.
Third Quarter 2011
57
currencies led to a decrease in the REER index of the
peso by 2.5 percent.
External Debt
As of end‐September 2011, outstanding BSP‐
approved/registered external debt reached US$62.4
billion, up by US$1.0 billion or 1.6 percent from the
US$61.4 billion recorded in end‐June 2011. On a year‐
on‐year basis, the debt stock rose by US$2.7 billion or
4.5 percent from the end‐September 2010 level of
US$59.8 billion.
On a quarterly basis, the growth in debt stock was
attributed mainly to: (a) upward foreign exchange
revaluation adjustments (US$735 million) due largely to
the weakening of the US dollar against other currencies,
particularly the Japanese Yen; and (b) transfer of
residents’ holdings of Philippine debt papers to non‐
residents (US$504 million). These were partially offset
by the US$211 million net repayments on loans.
The outstanding debt figure excluded residents’
holdings of Philippine debt papers issued abroad
amounting to US$13.1 billion36 at the end of the third
quarter, a slight decrease of US$504 million from the
previous quarter’s level of US$13.6 billion. The coverage
of debt statistics is in line with the residency criterion
for international statistics on external debt and balance
of payments.
36 Data Sources: Reports from banks (bank proper and Trust Departments), pension funds, insurance companies and other investors; holdings of banks amounted to US$8.8 billion and Trust Departments (for account of residents), US$1.6 billion.
External debt remains manageable.
Third Quarter 2011
58
Compared to the year‐ago level, the debt stock
increased as new borrowings exceeded loan repayments
by US$2.4 billion (net loans by public sector: US$1.1
billion; private sector: US$1.3 billion). Positive foreign
exchange revaluation adjustments (US$1.6 billion)
further increased the debt stock, but the increase in
investments of residents in Philippine debt papers
issued abroad (US$1.4 billion) partially reduced the
upward impact on the debt level. Prepayments during
the third quarter amounted to less than US$1 million;
while for the 12‐month period, prepayments reached
US$2.6 billion.
Medium‐ and long‐term (MLT) loans (i.e., with original
maturities longer than one (1) year) rose to
US$55.3 billion during the review period from the end‐
June 2011 level of US$54.3 billion. The share of MLT
loans to total loans also increased slightly from
88.4 percent to 88.6 percent. On the other hand, short‐
term (ST) obligations, (those with original maturities of
up to one (1) year) consisting mainly of liabilities under
Documents against Acceptance/Open Account
Arrangements (DA/OA, US$2.3 billion) and inter‐bank
borrowings (US$3.3 billion), was slightly lower by
US$9 million to reach US$7.1 billion (11.4 percent of
total) from US$7.2 billion (11.6 percent of total).
For the period under review, the external debt profile
remained predominantly MLT. The larger share of MLT
accounts to total external debt indicated that loan
payments are spread out over a longer period of time,
resulting in a more manageable level of debt servicing.
The weighted average maturity for all MLT loans is
22.4 years, slightly shorter than the 22.7 years recorded
Third Quarter 2011
59
a quarter ago. Public sector borrowings had longer
average tenors of 24.2 years, compared to 11.4 years for
the private sector.37 Public sector borrowings have
consistently been obtained under longer tenors due to
the developmental nature of projects that require
longer repayment periods as compared to private sector
loans which were usually tied to the shorter gestation
period of financed projects.
The country’s external debt to gross national income
(GNI)38 ratio was estimated at 21.6 percent as of end‐
September 2011, slightly lower than the ratio of
21.8 percent in June 2011 and the 23.4 percent
registered in June 2010. Similarly, the external debt to
GDP ratio was estimated at 28.4 percent during the
review period, lower than the 28.9 percent a quarter
ago and the 31.3 percent posted a year ago.
The debt service ratio (DSR), which relates to the
proportion of the total principal and interest payments
to total exports of goods and receipts from services and
income (XGSI), was estimated at 8.7 percent for the
period ending September 2011, higher than the
6.5 percent and 7.6 percent registered in June 2011 and
September 2010, respectively. The ratio, which is a
measure of the adequacy of the country’s foreign
exchange earnings to meet maturing loan payments, has
stayed consistently below the international benchmark
range of 20‐25 percent.
37 Based on the original maturity concept. 38 The National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) has adopted the terminology GNI in place of Gross National Product (GNP) as one of the features of the revised (based 2000) Philippine System of National Accounts (PSNA) for the period 1998‐2010 based on the recommendation of the 1993 System of National Accounts.
Third Quarter 2011
60
Foreign Interest Rates
Monetary policy remained accommodative during the
review period to revive the pace of economic recovery
due to some weaknesses in employment, spending and
bank lending growth.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
maintained the target range for the federal funds at 0 to
0.25 percent in the third quarter of 2011 in anticipation
of sluggish economic conditions, including low rates of
resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation
over the medium run, which are most likely to warrant
exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at
least through mid‐2013. Information received since the
Federal Open Market Committee met in September
indicates that economic growth strengthened
somewhat in the third quarter, reflecting in part a
reversal of the temporary factors that had weighed on
growth earlier in the year. Nonetheless, recent
indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor
market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains
elevated. Household spending has increased at a
somewhat faster pace in recent months. Business
investment in equipment and software has continued to
expand, but investment in nonresidential structures is
still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed.
Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the
year as prices of energy and some commodities have
declined from their peaks.39 As the FOMC maintained its
monetary policy stance, the U.S. prime rate and
39 Federal Reserve, FOMC Statements on 21 September and 2 November 2011 are available online at: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/2011monetary.htm
Monetary policies remain accommodative.
Third Quarter 2011
61
discount rate continued to average at 3.25 percent and
0.75 percent, respectively, during the review period.40
However, the U.S. federal funds rate increased slightly
to 0.105 percent in the third quarter of 2011 from the
0.102 percent average reported in the previous quarter,
as the pace of economic recovery is likely to be slow in
the near term than had been anticipated (Table 16).
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of
England (BOE) also maintained its monetary policy
settings, keeping the official bank rate paid on
commercial bank reserves at 0.5 percent in the third
quarter of 2011. But the Committee decided to increase
the stock of asset purchases financed through the
issuance of central bank reserves by £75 billion to a
total of £275 billion.41 The path of output has been
affected by a number of temporary factors, but the
available indicators suggest that the underlying rate of
growth has also moderated. The squeeze on
households’ real incomes and fiscal consolidation are
likely to continue to weigh on domestic spending, while
the strains in bank funding markets may also inhibit the
availability of credit to consumers and businesses. While
the stimulatory monetary stance and the present level
of sterling should help to support demand, the weaker
outlook for, and the increased downside risks to, output
growth mean that the margin of slack in the economy is
likely to be greater and more persistent than previously
expected.
40 The prime rate refers to the interest rate banks charge their most creditworthy customers. The discount rate refers to the rate charged by the Federal Reserve banks when they extend credit to depository institutions. 41 The previous change in Bank Rate was a reduction of 0.5 percentage points to 0.5 percent on 5 March 2009. A program of asset purchases financed through the issuance of central bank reserves was initiated on 5 March 2009. The previous change in the size of that program was an increase of £25 billion to a total of £200 billion on 5 November 2009.
Third Quarter 2011
62
Similarly, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) enhanced monetary
easing by increasing the total size of the Asset Purchase
Program from about 50 trillion yen to about 55 trillion
yen.42 The BOJ will also encourage the uncollateralized
overnight call rate to remain at around 0.1 percent.
Japan's economic activity has continued to pick up.
Production and exports have continued to increase,
although their paces have moderated after going
through the recovery phase immediately following the
quake‐induced plunge. In this situation, business fixed
investment has been increasing moderately, and private
consumption has been picking up on the whole.
Meanwhile, financial conditions have continued to ease,
albeit with weakness still being observed in the financial
positions of some firms, mainly small ones.
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank
(ECB) also decided to keep key interest rates unchanged
in the third quarter of 2011. Thus, the interest rate on
the main refinancing operations and the interest rates
on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility
remained at 1.25 percent, 2.0 percent and 0.5 percent,
respectively.43 The Governing Council has decided to
conduct two longer‐term refinancing operations
(LTROs), one with a maturity of approximately
12 months in October and the other with a maturity of
approximately 13 months in December. The Governing
Council has also decided to continue conducting its
MROs as fixed rate tender procedures with full
allotment for as long as necessary, and at least until the
end of the sixth maintenance period of 2012 on 10 July
42 The announcements of the Monetary Policy Decisions of the Bank of Japan are available online at http://www.boj.or.jp/en/theme/seisaku/kettei/index.htm. 43 The decisions of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank are available online at http://www.ecb.int/press/pressconf/2011/html/index.en.html
Third Quarter 2011
63
2012. In addition, the Governing Council has decided to
conduct the three‐month LTROs to be allotted on
25 January, 29 February, 28 March, 25 April, 30 May and
27 June 2012 as fixed rate tender procedures with full
allotment. The rates in these three‐month operations
will be fixed at the average rate of the MROs over the
life of the respective LTRO. Furthermore, the Governing
Council has decided to launch a new covered bond
purchase program (CBPP2). The program will have the
following modalities:
• The purchases will be for an intended amount of
EUR 40 billion.
• The purchases will have the capacity to be
conducted in the primary and secondary
markets and will be carried out by means of
direct purchases.
• The purchases will start in November 2011 and
are expected to be fully implemented by the
end of October 2012.44
The provision of liquidity and the allotment modes for
refinancing operations will continue to ensure that euro
area banks are not constrained on the liquidity side. All
the non‐standard measures taken during the period of
acute financial market tensions are, by construction,
temporary in nature. Ongoing tensions in financial
markets and unfavorable effects on financing conditions
are likely to dampen the pace of economic growth in the
euro area in the second half of this year. The economic
outlook remains subject to particularly high uncertainty
44 This procedure will also remain in use for the Eurosystem’s special‐term refinancing operations with a maturity of one maintenance period, which will continue to be conducted for as long as needed, and at least until the end of the third quarter of 2011. The fixed rate in these special‐term refinancing operations will be the same as the MRO rate prevailing at the time.
Third Quarter 2011
64
and intensified downside risks. At the same time, short‐
term interest rates remain low. It remains essential for
monetary policy to maintain price stability over the
medium term, thereby ensuring a firm anchoring of
inflation expectations in the euro area in line with the
aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to,
2 percent over the medium term.
The 90‐day London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and
the 90‐day Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (SIBOR)
increased by 3.47 basis points and 3.42 basis points,
respectively, to average 0.2979 percent and
0.3067 percent, as global financial markets remained
liquid (Table 16).
Global Economic Developments
Developments in the third quarter of 2011 suggested
that the global economy continued to grow at a
moderate pace as compared to the previous quarter.
The inflationary pressures have slowed down growth
while the global labor market conditions remained
mixed.
The U.S. GDP increased slightly by 2.0 percent in the
third quarter of 2011 compared with the 1.3 percent
growth in the previous quarter. The increase in real GDP
in the third quarter primarily reflected an upturn in
durable goods and a pickup in services that mainly
reflected spending for housing, utilities and health
care.45 The growth reflected the acceleration of
investment in equipment and software as indicated by
45 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis: second estimate dated 22 November 2011. http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
Global economy continued to sustain recovery
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
G3 US 0.6 2.2 1.3 2.0 1.3 2.1 3.6 3.9 9.6 8.9 9.1 9.0 Japan -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 1.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.1 Euro area 0.3 0.8 1.7 1.4 2.0 2.5 2.4 2.7 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.8Asian NIEs Hong Kong 7.0 7.2 5.1 5.1 2.8 4.1 5.4 5.8 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.3 South Korea 5.3 4.2 3.4 3.4 3.6 4.5 4.2 5.0 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.1 Singapore 12.0 9.4 1.0 6.1 4.0 5.1 4.7 5.3 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.0 China 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.1 4.7 5.1 5.7 6.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.3 India 8.3 7.8 7.8 7.8 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.4 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4ASEAN Indonesia 6.9 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.8 5.9 4.7 7.1 6.8 6.8 6.6 Malaysia 4.8 4.6 4.0 5.8 2.0 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 Philippines 8.4 4.6 3.4 3.2 3.8 4.5 5.0 4.9 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.1 Thailand 3.8 3.0 2.7 3.5 2.9 3.0 4.1 4.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.7 Vietnam 7.3 5.4 5.7 5.7 11.8 12.8 19.4 22.6 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6Sources: Bloomberg; The Institute of International Finance, Inc.; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Cabinet Office; European Central Bank; Hong Kong Administrative Region Government Portal; and Korea National Statistics1/ Unemployment rate is the proportion (in percent) of the total number of unemployed to the total number of persons in the labor force.
Macroeconomic Indicators in Selected EconomiesYear-on-year growth rates (in percent)
Unemployment1/Real GDP InflationCountry
Third Quarter 2011
65
contributions from the construction machinery and
agricultural machinery, as well as industrial equipment
and transportation equipment.
Meanwhile Japan's real GDP for the third quarter of
2011 grew at 1.5 percent from the previous quarter’s
contraction of 0.3 percent. Following three quarters of
contraction, Japan’s exports and domestic consumption
rebounded from the slump caused by the March 2011
earthquake in Tohoku region.46
Among the newly‐industrialized economies (NIEs) in
Asia, China’s GDP expansion decelerated slightly to
9.1 percent in the third quarter, as compared to the
9.5 percent in the second quarter of 2011. The
slowdown was a desired outcome of China's macro‐
economic regulations as the government continued its
efforts in curbing soaring property prices, reining in
inflation and regulating local government financing of
vehicles.47 Meanwhile, Singapore’s GDP expansion of
6.1 percent from 1.0 percent in the previous quarter
reflected the rebound in the biomedical manufacturing
cluster, as some companies switched to producing a
higher value mix of pharmaceutical products during the
quarter. By contrast, the electronics cluster continued to
contract, as global demand for semiconductor chips and
other electronic components moderated.
With the moderate expansion in global economic
activity, inflation rate in some advanced countries has
46 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Quarterly National Accounts dated 17 November 2011, and Japan National Accounts. 47 Reuters, “China quarterly growth tops forecast, boosts inflation fight” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/18/us‐china‐economy‐gdp‐idUSTRE76C0K920110713
Third Quarter 2011
66
started to exhibit an uptrend. In the U.S., inflation rate
went up to 3.9 percent in the third quarter of 2011 from
3.6 percent in the previous quarter. Meanwhile,
inflation rate in the euro area increased to 2.7 percent,
slightly higher than the 2.4 percent in the previous
quarter. In Japan, prices increased slightly by
0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2011 compared to
0.2 percent in the previous quarter.
Inflation rate in Asia showed a general uptrend in the
third quarter of 2011. Among the Asian NIEs, inflation
rates in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea
rose to 6.4 percent, 5.8 percent, 5.3 percent and
5.0 percent, respectively.
Global labor market conditions continued to signal
mixed trends in the third quarter. In particular, the rate
of unemployment in the U.S. went down slightly to
9.0 percent from 9.1 percent in the previous quarter.
However, unemployment in the euro area increased to
9.8 percent from 9.7 percent in the previous quarter.
Similar labor conditions were also evident in Asian NIEs
and ASEAN countries. In Hong Kong and South Korea,
unemployment rate went down moderately to
3.3 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, in
China and Thailand, unemployment rate went up to
4.3 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, during the
quarter in review.
Third Quarter 2011
67
G. Financial Condition of the BSP
Balance Sheet
Based on preliminary and unaudited financial
statements, the BSP’s assets as of end‐July 2011
reached P3,506.4 billion, 29.7 percent or P802.9 billion
higher than the year‐ago level. The amount was also
higher by 1.4 percent or P47.0 billion relative to the
end‐June 2011 level. The BSP’s liabilities grew by
P905.7 billion or 36.5 percent year‐on‐year to
P3,385.2 billion. Meanwhile, the BSP’s net worth
declined to P121.2 billion compared to the year‐ago
level of P224.0 billion, as the growth in liabilities was
higher than the growth in assets during the period. The
amount, however, approximated the level declared at
the end of the previous quarter.
The year‐on‐year expansion in the BSP assets was
largely due to the sustained build‐up of international
reserves, which accounted for more than 85 percent of
total assets. The 35.2 percent or P785.2 billion
expansion in international reserves was largely a result
of the gains coming from the BSP’s receipts from
investment income abroad and foreign exchange
operations of the BSP due to strong capital inflows.
Similarly, the period under review also saw an expansion
in the BSP’s liabilities attributed primarily to higher
balances in its deposit liabilities, as part of the BSP’s
continued liquidity management operations. In
particular, placement in the special deposit account
(SDA) facility posted an increase of P612.6 billion to
BSP’s net worth declines.
Balance Sheet of the BSP*In billion pesos
2011 2010
July June July
Assets 3,506.4 3,459.4 2,703.5 Liabilities 3,385.2 3,338.2 2,479.5 Networth 121.2 121.2 224.0
* Unaudited.
Third Quarter 2011
68
P1,511.6 billion from the P899.0 billion registered a year
ago. The growth in liabilities was also traceable to the
84.8 percent increase in RRPs amounting to
P256.3 billion compared to P138.7 billion registered
during the same period in 2010.
Income Statement
Based on preliminary and unaudited data, the BSP’s
financial position recorded a net loss of P2.2 billion in
July 2011, as compared to the P4.8 billion net income
posted during the comparable period in 2010. The
deficit was primarily due to losses incurred as a result of
foreign exchange rate fluctuations amounting to
P8.7 billion.48
Total revenues for July 2011 amounted to P16.5 billion
or P7.1 billion higher than the level posted during the
same period last year. Interest income, which comprised
the primary source of revenue, was up slightly by
1.3 percent or P50 million higher than the previous
year’s level, largely on account of higher interest earned
from international reserves amounting to P582 million.
Moreover, miscellaneous income rose by P7.0 billion
due to trading gains from price fluctuations of BSP gold
holdings during the period.
Total expenditures during the same period amounted to
P10.0 billion, which was P3.5 billion higher than the
level posted for the same period last year. The y‐o‐y
expansion was due mainly to higher interest expense,
48 This represents realized gains or losses from fluctuations in FX rates arising from foreign currency‐denominated transactions of the BSP, including: 1) rollover/re‐investments of matured FX investments with foreign financial institutions and FX‐denominated government securities; 2) servicing of matured FX obligations of the BSP; and 3) maturity of derivatives instruments.
BSP registers a net loss.
Income Statement of the BSP*In billion pesos
2011 2010July Apr‐Jun July
Revenue 16.464 25.873 9.367Less: Expense 9.968 31.162 6.492Equals Net Income Before
FX Gains/Loss (‐) 6.496 ‐5.289 2.875Add/Less: Gains/Losses on FX Rate
Fluctuations ‐8.699 ‐9.227 1.923Less: Provision for Income Tax 0 0 0Equals: Net Income Available
for Distribution ‐2.203 ‐14.516 4.798
* Unaudited.
Third Quarter 2011
69
which rose by 52.9 percent, on account of increased
interest payments from higher placements in the SDA
facility. Total taxes and licenses remitted to the NG for
July 2011 amounted to P111 million or P77 million lower
compared to the year‐ago remittance of P188 million.
H. Challenges and Policy Directions
The Philippines faces headwinds that could undermine
its positive economic outlook. On the domestic front,
major challenges include the acceleration of fiscal
spending to support economic activity, particularly the
smooth execution of the public‐private partnership
initiatives that could fast‐track much‐needed
investments in infrastructure. On the external front, the
lingering weakness in the US economy and the
deepening sovereign debt and banking problems in the
Eurozone could heighten risk aversion in financial
markets and drag down global trade. Likewise, foreign
firms’ planned business expansions in the Philippines
could be put on hold if economic conditions in AEs
deteriorate further.
Softer economic activity in the US resulting from weak
labor market conditions and continued repair of the
private sector’s balance sheet could also dampen
exports of Philippine goods and services, given that the
US is one of the country’s major trading partners. In
addition, heightened risk aversion from a full‐blown
sovereign debt crisis in the Euro area could prompt
investors to pull their investments out of the country in
favor of perceived safe haven financial securities such as
US Treasuries and gold.
Third Quarter 2011
70
Amid these challenges, the BSP will remain committed
to its fundamental mandate of maintaining price
stability. The latest baseline forecasts indicate that
inflation could settle within the government‐announced
target range for 2011 and 2012. The balance of risks to
inflation continues to be predominantly on the
downside due to weaker prospects for the growth of the
global economy along with demand for key
commodities such as oil. At the same time, the broadly
stable peso could help temper the prices of imported
commodities. Meanwhile, upside risks to inflation could
emanate from additional petitions for domestic
electricity rate adjustments, the impact of strong capital
inflows, and possible uptick in rice prices.
The BSP is also mindful of the continued influx of foreign
funds to the country amid loose global liquidity
conditions. While capital inflows provide funds to
finance productive activities, help smoothen
consumption expenditures and allow diversification of
financial risks, they can also complicate liquidity
management, create pressures for currencies to
appreciate and trigger systemic stress in the financial
system through asset price inflation. Thus, the BSP has
been enhancing its policy toolkit to better respond to
the effects of capital inflows, including the use of
macroprudential tools.
On the external sector, the BSP will remain committed
to sustaining the current favorable external sector
dynamics. Toward this end, the BSP will continue to
ensure an exchange rate determined by market forces
Third Quarter 2011
71
but will guard against excessive foreign exchange
volatility that could undermine economic growth. The
BSP will continue to maintain a comfortable level of
international reserves, which could serve as insurance
against external shocks. Likewise, the BSP will work
toward keeping the country’s external debt at
sustainable levels.
The BSP will also pursue financial reform measures to
maintain the soundness of the financial system.
Regulatory and supervisory frameworks will also be
continued to be benchmarked to international
standards and best practices. The BSP will pursue
initiatives not only to promote the safety of individual
banks in the form of microprudential tools but also to
ensure the system‐wide stability of the financial sector
through macroprudential measures.
The BSP will likewise continue to promote the smooth
functioning of the payments and settlements system by
adopting methodologies and processes that will ensure
sufficient liquidity to effect financial transactions on a
timely and cost‐effective basis.
Another contribution of the BSP to participatory
economic development is its commitment to promoting
an inclusive financial system. In connection with this,
the BSP will work toward broadening further access to
the financial sector, particularly to the “unbanked”
sector of society. The BSP will continue its financial
learning campaigns to educate the public on the
benefits of transacting through the formal banking
system. Moreover, financial learning campaigns serve as
Third Quarter 2011
72
a venue to communicate with the public the latest
economic developments and policy actions of the BSP.
Finally, the recent financial crisis has highlighted the
increasingly interconnected global financial markets that
cut across national boundaries. Hence, the BSP will
remain an active participant in regional and
international cooperation programs, recognizing the
opportunity and benefits for collaborative engagement.
Third Quarter 2011
73
Annex A
Banking Policies
Banking policies implemented during the quarter were aimed at strengthening regulations, rules and
guidelines on: 1) prompt corrective action (“PCA”) framework; 2) implementing the truth in lending act
to enhance loan transaction transparency; 3) mandatory credit allocation for agriculture and agrarian
reform credit; 4) Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) and Supervisory Review Process
(SRP) for foreign bank branches; 5) Philippine Financial Reporting Standards (PFRS) 9; and 6) Single
Borrower's Limit.
Memorandum of understanding (MOU) entered into between the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
and the board of directors of bank initiated to the prompt corrective action (PCA) framework
To enhance the framework for the enforcement of prompt corrective action (“PCA”), the following
provision of Circular no. 523 dated 23 March 2005, as amended by Circular no. 664 dated 15 September
2009, is hereby amended to read as follows:
“The initiation of PCA shall be recommended by the Deputy Governor, Supervision and Examination
Sector ("SES") to the MB for approval. Upon PCA initiation, the BSP shall require the bank to enter into a
memorandum of understanding (MOU) committing to the PCA plan. The MOU shall be subject to
approval by the deputy governor, supervision and examination sector, and confirmation by the MB."
Circular no. 729 dated 8 July 2011
Updated Rules Implementing the truth in Lending Act to Enhance Loan Transaction Transparency
To Enhance Loan Transaction Transparency, BSP amended the Manual of Regulations for Banks (MORB)
Sections X305 and X307, and Appendix 19 of the MORB as follows:
Among the amendments were: 1) inclusion of a subsection on the method of computing interest, which
provides that banks may only charge interest based on the outstanding balance of a loan at the
beginning of an installment period; 2) enhancement of the definition of terms such as finance charge
and simple annual interest rate; 3) revision of the section on “Information to be Disclosed” which states
Third Quarter 2011
74
that as a general rule, loan terms shall be disclosed to all types of borrowers, listing the minimum
information to be made known to small business/retail/consumer credit; 4) requirement that posters
should have the information contained in the revised format of disclosure statement; and 5) revision of
the “Format of Disclosure Statement on Loan/Credit Transaction” in Appendix 19 to reflect present
industry practices, specifically targeted towards the small business, retail and consumer loans but still
consistent with R.A. No 3765. (Circular No. 730 dated 20 July 2011)
Rules and Regulations on the mandatory credit allocation for agriculture and agrarian reform credit
The BSP approved the revised rules and regulations governing the mandatory credit allocation for
agriculture and agrarian reform credit to implement the provisions of Republic Act (R.A.) No. 10000
dated 23 February 2010, The Agri‐Agra Reform Credit Act of 2009.
Banks shall set aside at least twenty‐five percent (25%) of their total loanable funds for agriculture and
agrarian reform credit in general, of which at least ten percent (10%) of the total loanable funds shall be
made available for agrarian reform beneficiaries. Excess compliance in the ten percent (10%) agrarian
reform credit may be used to offset a deficiency, if any, in the fifteen percent (15%) other agricultural
credit, in general, but not vice versa.
This circular also covers: (1) Definition of terms; (2) Qualified borrowers; (3) Direct compliance;
(4) Allowable alternative compliance; (5) Computation of loanable funds; (6) Computation of total
equity; (7) Syndicated type of agrarian reform credit/agricultural credit; (8) Submission of reports;
(9) Consolidated compliance; and (10) Sanctions. (Circular 736 dated 20 July 2011)
Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) and Supervisory Review Process (SRP) for
Foreign Bank Branches
To effectively implement the provisions of Circular No. 639 dated 15 January 2009, the Bangko Sentral
ng Pilipinas (BSP) shall consider the following guidelines with respect to the Internal Capital Adequacy
Assessment Process (ICAAP) and the related Supervisory Review Process (SRP) for foreign bank branches:
1. The guiding principles for banks' ICAAPS and the SRP in Circular No. 639 shall apply to foreign bank
branches on a proportionate basis. In this regard, the BSP expects that there will be variation in
foreign banks branches' ICAAPs in accordance with the nature, size and complexity of their
business in the Philippines.
Third Quarter 2011
75
2. The BSP will primarily be interested in finding out how a foreign bank branch assesses its capital in
relation to its business plans and operations in the Philippines.
3. The ICAAP of a foreign bank branch should cover risks arising from the occurrence of domestically‐
oriented scenarios. lt should also take into account the specific circumstances of the branch, i.e.,
regulatory commitments in relation to special licenses or authorities, etc.
4. The BSP acknowledges that a foreign bank branch is likely to make use of the methodology of the
head office/parent bank for its own ICAAP or portions thereof but the branch should be able to
explain that such processes and methodologies are appropriate to its business in the Philippines.
5. A branch must include in its ICAAP how capital is being allocated to the branch and the factors that
influence this allocation. lt should also be able to illustrate how this capital is managed, and how
capital can be made available to the branch in a timely manner when it has been determined that
there is a need to do so.
6. In line with item 2.6 on the Guidelines on the BSP's Supervisory Review Process, the BSP will refer
to the ICAAP developed at the level of the head office/parent bank, and the home supervisor's
assessment thereof. The BSP will look at the extent that the head office/parent bank ICAAP covers
the risks of its branch in the Philippines, including the possible impact of scenarios that primarily
affect the operations of the head office/parent bank on the operations and capital adequacy of the
branch.
7. The ICAAP document of foreign bank branches should be submitted to the Central Point of Contact
Department (CPCD) of the BSP on or before 28 February of each year. Banks may refer to Circular
No. 639 for the suggested format of the document. While a common outline facilitates the BSP's
evaluation, banks are not precluded from modifying the format and content of the ICAAP
document if certain sections or suggested content do not apply to the operations of the branch,
or, if presenting the information in another way would best reflect the internal capital assessment
process of the branch.
8. A "trial" ICAAP document shall be submitted to the CPCD of the BSP on or before 30 September
2011. (Circular No. 731 dated 28 July 2011)
Adoption of Philippine Financial Reporting Standards 9
To continue the policy of the BSP to promote fairness, transparency and accuracy in financial reporting,
the Guidelines on the implementation/ early adoption of Philippine Financial Reporting Standards (PFRS)
9 Financial Instruments were amended.
Third Quarter 2011
76
The amendments included, among others: 1) inclusion of the reporting of financial liabilities as part of
the adoption PFRS 9; 2) revision in the timelines for the submission of Report on Initial Application of
PFRS 9; and 3) addition of transition rules on the adoption of PFRS 9. (Circular No. 733 dated 05 August
2011)
Amendment to the Regulations on Single Borrower's Limit
The BSP has approved the following amendments to ltem "g" of its Regulations on Single Borrower's
Limit:
Loans and other credit accommodations as well as deposits and usual guarantees by a bank to any other
bank, whether locally or abroad, shall be subject to the limits as prescribed in the Sec. X303 of the
MORB or P100.0 million, whichever is higher. The lending bank shall exercise proper due diligence in
selecting a depository bank and shall formulate appropriate policies to address the corresponding risks
involved in the transactions.
Deposits in private banks located in municipalities/cities where there are government banks shall also be
subject to the limits as prescribed in the above paragraph. (Circular No. 734 dated 16 August 2011)
Third Quarter 2011
77
Annex B
Capital Market Reforms
Capital market policy reforms continued to gain ground during the period as the BSP maintained an
active collaboration with other government agencies and the private sector for the development of the
Philippine capital market. The reforms focused on the following: promoting investor confidence,
enhancing transparency and corporate governance, helping develop the necessary market
infrastructure, and advocating legislation to support the capital market.
Promoting investor confidence
After the regular review of its activities from July 2010 to June 2011, the PSE revised the composition of
the PSEi and the sector indices effective 12 September 2011. To qualify for the PSEi, companies are
required to: maintain a free float level49 of at least 12 percent, up from the previous requirement of at
least 10 percent; maintain trading liquidity among the top 25 percent in terms of median daily value for
at least 9 out of 12 months; belong to the top 30 based on full market capitalization. To be included in
the sector indices, companies must rank among the top 50 percent in terms of median daily trade per
month in 8 out of 12 months.
Enhancing transparency and corporate governance
The PSE reminded trading participants on 24 August 2011 of the reinstatement of the Minimum Public
Ownership (MPO) Rule late last year. Among others, the MPO rules require listed companies to
maintain, at all times, a minimum percentage of listed securities held by the public of 10 percent of the
listed companies issued and outstanding shares (public float), exclusive of any treasury shares. Any listed
company not in compliance shall have a grace period of 12 months to comply.
49 The free float level is the number of shares available to third‐party investors. This new criteria effectively requires PSEi index companies to have more shares that are owned by the investing public.
Third Quarter 2011
78
Helping develop the necessary market infrastructure
To attract more investor interest and prepare for cross‐border trading with Southeast Asian neighbors in
2012, the new PSE board finalized plans to extend trading hours from the current 9:30 am to 12:10 p.m.
to the new trading hours of 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. beginning October 2011. By January 1, 2012, the trading
hours will be extended further into the afternoon but with a lunch break in between. The morning
session will be from 9:30 a.m. to 12 noon while the afternoon session will be 1:30 to 3:30 p.m. The PSE
had approved a resolution for longer trading hours in 2008 but this was shelved due to the unfavorable
economic conditions at that time.
Advocating legislation to support the capital market
On 27 July 2011, the tax rules for the establishment of REITs have finally been approved. It will be
recalled that Republic Act (R.A.) No. 9856 – “An Act Providing the Legal Framework for Real Estate
Investment Trust (REIT) and For Other Purposes” – lapsed into law on 17 December 2009.50 However,
due to a lengthy debate on tax issues, the revenue regulation covering REIT was recently issued by the
BIR. Among others, the REIT will be subject to 30 percent income tax, 12 percent value‐added tax on the
transfer of assets, and a 50 percent discount on documentary stamp tax (DST). The BIR rules also state
that REITs could avail of tax incentives if they maintain public ownership of at least 67 percent and
allocate to shareholders at least 90 percent of their distributable income.51
50 A “Real Estate Investment Trust” or “REIT” is a stock corporation that is established principally for the purpose of owning income‐generating real estate assets. A corporation becomes a REIT and qualified to avail of the incentives and privileges of the REIT Act when its REIT Plan is rendered effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission and its listing as a REIT is approved by the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE). 51 The Securities and Exchange Commission requires a 40 percent minimum public ownership for REITs during the first two years from listing, which shall be increased to 67 percent by the third year.
1 GROSS NATIONAL INCOME AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY INDUSTRIAL ORIGINfor periods indicated
in million pesos, at constant 2000 prices
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2009 20112009 2010 2011 2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2009:q1 2009:q2 2009:q3 2009:q4 2010:q1 2010:q2 2010:q3 2010:q4 2011:q1 2011:q2 2011:q3
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing 166,562 151,857 152,201 193,124 163,629 148,896 149,181 200,959 170,651 161,129 151,822 0.8 1.8 ‐0.2 ‐4.2 ‐1.8 ‐2.0 ‐2.0 4.1 4.3 8.2 1.8
Industry 368,922 423,495 407,319 466,865 425,567 489,793 447,055 497,101 456,440 478,391 446,304 ‐2.2 ‐1.8 ‐5.8 1.9 15.4 15.7 9.8 6.5 7.3 ‐2.3 ‐0.2
Mining and Quarrying 13,581 18,961 12,586 14,001 13,903 23,580 13,448 14,968 16,655 24,285 13,594 6.2 22.4 21.1 14.2 2.4 24.4 6.8 6.9 19.8 3.0 1.1
Manufacturing 252,377 271,163 276,556 337,438 298,652 306,874 299,709 359,288 325,012 321,319 308,939 ‐6.7 ‐7.7 ‐7.7 2.0 18.3 13.2 8.4 6.5 8.8 4.7 3.1
Construction 59,766 85,235 68,304 71,688 65,566 106,296 78,972 74,986 67,893 81,554 69,369 15.7 17.5 ‐2.8 ‐0.8 9.7 24.7 15.6 4.6 3.5 ‐23.3 ‐12.2
Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 43,197 48,136 49,873 43,738 47,445 53,043 54,926 47,859 46,880 51,234 54,402 2.6 ‐2.6 ‐4.1 1.6 9.8 10.2 10.1 9.4 ‐1.2 ‐3.4 ‐1.0
Services 694,134 759,097 727,154 786,510 743,844 814,702 783,995 836,818 767,862 858,605 825,626 2.8 3.6 4.6 2.6 7.2 7.3 7.8 6.4 3.2 5.4 5.3
Transportation, Storage and
Communication 108,945 110,263 91,693 112,496 106,538 112,714 94,479 114,035 111,052 117,449 99,091 5.5 1.0 ‐1.9 ‐4.7 ‐2.2 2.2 3.0 1.4 4.2 4.2 4.9
Trade and Repair of Motor Vehicles,
Motorcycles, Personal & Household Goods 184,788 212,077 220,402 258,350 206,308 226,459 244,719 271,256 207,012 230,739 253,916 0.0 1.2 2.5 1.5 11.6 6.8 11.0 5.0 0.3 1.9 3.8
Financial Intermediation 80,393 92,481 81,978 85,477 87,058 97,838 92,692 97,127 92,597 109,185 95,983 1.2 2.3 15.4 4.6 8.3 5.8 13.1 13.6 6.4 11.6 3.6
R. Estate, Renting and Business Activities 132,169 141,385 140,979 133,332 139,097 153,607 150,320 145,922 147,520 164,265 161,757 5.6 3.5 1.6 6.1 5.2 8.6 6.6 9.4 6.1 6.9 7.6R. state, Renting and usiness Activities 3 , 69 4 ,385 40,979 33,33 39,097 53,607 50,3 0 45,9 47,5 0 64, 65 6 ,757 5.6 3.5 .6 6. 5. 8.6 6.6 9.4 6. 6.9 7.6
Public Administration & Defense;
Compulsory Social Security 58,422 65,646 59,547 57,394 62,788 71,919 63,427 56,953 59,918 75,770 66,836 0.9 9.9 9.1 4.3 7.5 9.6 6.5 ‐0.8 ‐4.6 5.4 5.4
Other Services 129,417 137,244 132,556 139,460 142,055 152,165 138,357 151,524 149,762 161,197 148,043 3.6 7.9 8.4 6.2 9.8 10.9 4.4 8.7 5.4 5.9 7.0
Gross Domestic Product 1,229,618 1,334,449 1,286,674 1,446,499 1,333,040 1,453,390 1,380,231 1,534,877 1,394,952 1,498,125 1,423,752 1.0 1.6 0.5 1.4 8.4 8.9 7.3 6.1 4.6 3.1 3.2
Net Primary Income 394,037 430,857 424,130 442,504 477,586 474,051 448,271 459,939 475,207 457,767 433,139 26.5 31.7 28.1 15.5 21.2 10.0 5.7 3.9 ‐0.5 ‐3.4 ‐3.4
Gross National Income 1,623,655 1,765,306 1,710,804 1,889,003 1,810,626 1,927,441 1,828,502 1,994,817 1,870,160 1,955,893 1,856,891 6.2 7.6 6.2 4.4 11.5 9.2 6.9 5.6 3.3 1.5 1.6
Total may not add up due to rounding.
Source : National Statistical Coordination Board
Note: Data on Real GDP and its components are based on 2000 prices. The use of terminology Gross National Income (GNI) in place of Gross National Product (GNP) has been adopted in the revised/rebased Philippine System of National Accounts (PSNA) in accordance with the 1993/1998 System of National Accounts prescribed by the United Nations.
1a GROSS NATIONAL INCOME AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY EXPENDITURE SHARESfor periods indicated
in million pesos, at constant 2000 prices
Annual Change (%)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Household Final Consumption Expenditure 887,468 959,004 900,681 1,070,755 923,065 977,453 922,575 1,122,734 972,084 1,030,760 988,007 1.9 4.0 0.6 2.7 4.0 1.9 2.4 4.9 5.3 5.5 7.1
Government Final Consumption Expenditure 129,416 155,725 137,504 125,652 157,087 167,182 128,518 117,421 130,026 174,306 140,582 5.8 11.6 12.2 14.3 21.4 7.4 ‐6.5 ‐6.6 ‐17.2 4.3 9.4
Capital Formation 185,960 211,258 178,709 323,405 245,325 291,433 240,350 406,541 349,135 269,122 299,355 ‐14.1 ‐6.7 ‐12.9 ‐4.0 31.9 38.0 34.5 25.7 42.3 ‐7.7 24.5
Fixed Capital 239,143 240,007 242,101 271,696 284,446 303,951 279,393 314,417 320,565 273,906 280,726 ‐8.0 ‐4.0 ‐0.6 5.8 18.9 26.6 15.4 15.7 12.7 ‐9.9 0.5
2011g ( )
2009 2010 2011 2009 2010
Fixed Capital 239,143 240,007 242,101 271,696 284,446 303,951 279,393 314,417 320,565 273,906 280,726 8.0 4.0 0.6 5.8 18.9 26.6 15.4 15.7 12.7 9.9 0.5
Construction 89,752 121,235 101,862 104,859 99,946 151,801 119,330 119,583 107,314 119,928 106,714 5.0 9.4 ‐3.6 ‐3.8 11.4 25.2 17.1 14.0 7.4 ‐21.0 ‐10.6
Durable Equipment 118,278 91,864 113,401 129,016 152,793 124,821 133,371 156,848 181,291 126,058 146,533 ‐17.1 ‐17.2 1.2 16.9 29.2 35.9 17.6 21.6 18.7 1.0 9.9
Breeding Stock & Orchard Dev't 26,601 22,159 18,774 31,058 26,552 22,386 18,718 31,272 26,627 22,532 18,753 ‐2.4 ‐6.6 0.6 ‐3.0 ‐0.2 1.0 ‐0.3 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.2
Intellectual Property Products 4,512 4,749 8,064 6,762 5,154 4,942 7,974 6,714 5,333 5,389 8,727 ‐4.5 4.2 13.8 24.3 14.2 4.1 ‐1.1 ‐0.7 3.5 9.0 9.4
Changes in Inventories ‐53,183 ‐28,748 ‐63,393 51,710 ‐39,121 ‐12,517 ‐39,042 92,124 28,570 ‐4,784 18,628 ‐21.8 ‐21.5 ‐64.7 ‐35.4 26.4 56.5 38.4 78.2 173.0 61.8 147.7
Exports 560,147 629,440 678,236 517,988 665,317 780,446 835,162 605,208 678,809 791,299 725,982 ‐7.7 ‐11.6 ‐7.3 ‐3.7 18.8 24.0 23.1 16.8 2.0 1.4 ‐13.1
Less: Imports 525,059 621,545 606,541 600,965 652,376 758,904 740,657 732,342 726,392 761,758 744,412 ‐12.9 ‐8.0 ‐10.0 ‐1.3 24.2 22.1 22.1 21.9 11.3 0.4 0.5
Statistical Discrepancy ‐8,314 566 ‐1,915 9,663 ‐5,377 ‐4,221 ‐5,717 15,316 ‐8,710 ‐5,605 14,238 ‐314.5 105.2 ‐243.1 29.4 35.3 ‐845.6 ‐198.6 58.5 ‐62.0 ‐32.8 349.0
Gross Domestic Product 1,229,618 1,334,449 1,286,674 1,446,499 1,333,040 1,453,390 1,380,231 1,534,877 1,394,952 1,498,125 1,423,752 1.0 1.6 0.5 1.4 8.4 8.9 7.3 6.1 4.6 3.1 3.2
Net Primary Income 394,037 430,857 424,130 442,504 477,586 474,051 448,271 459,939 475,207 457,767 433,139 26.5 31.7 28.1 15.5 21.2 10.0 5.7 3.9 ‐0.5 ‐3.4 ‐3.4
Gross National Income 1,623,655 1,765,306 1,710,804 1,889,003 1,810,626 1,927,441 1,828,502 1,994,817 1,870,160 1,955,893 1,856,891 6.2 7.6 6.2 4.4 11.5 9.2 6.9 5.6 3.3 1.5 1.6
Note: Data on Real GDP and its components are based on 2000 prices. The use of terminology Gross National Income (GNI) in place of Gross National Product (GNP) has been adopted in the revised/rebased Philippine System of National Accounts (PSNA) in accordance with the 1993/1998 System of National Accounts prescribed by the United Nations.
Total may not add up due to rounding.
Source: National Statistical Coordination Board
2 SELECTED LABOR, EMPLOYMENT AND WAGE INDICATORS
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Employment Status 1
Labor Force (in thousands) 37,116 37,824 38,430 38,196 38,828 38,512 38,993 39,288 39,212 39,692 39,929Employed 34,262 34,997 35,508 35,477 36,001 35,413 36,285 36,489 36,293 00 36,821 37,107Unemployed 2,854 2,827 2,922 2,719 2,827 3,099 2,708 2,800 2,919 2,871 2,822Underemployed 6,238 6,621 7,034 6,875 7,107 6,297 6,490 7,140 7,054 7,126 7,095
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 63.3 64.0 64.6 64.0 64.5 63.6 64.0 64.2 63.7 64.2 64.3 Employment Rate (%) 92.3 92.5 92.4 92.9 92.7 92.0 93.1 92.9 92.6 92.8 92.9 Unemployment Rate (%) 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.1 7.3 8.0 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.2 7.1 Underemployment Rate (%) 18.2 18.9 19.8 19.4 19.7 17.8 17.9 19.6 19.4 19.4 19.1
Overseas Employment (Deployed) 336,901 408,246 367,693 309,746 388,495 385,072 399,061 298198 .. ..
Land‐based 266,676 319,212 282,414 223,860 301417 303686 306042 212531 .. ..
Sea‐based 70,225 89,034 85,279 85886 87078 81386 93019 85667 .. ..
Strikes Number of New Strikes 2 0 2 0 1 3 1 3 1 ..
Number of Workers Involved 1,200 0 310 0 1,800 387 47 800 128 .... ..
Nominal Daily Wage Rates (in pesos)
National Capital RegionAgricultural Plantation 345.00 345.00 345.00 345.00 345.00 345.00 367.00 367.00 367.00 389.00 389.00 a
Non‐Plantation 345.00 345.00 345.00 345.00 345.00 345.00 367.00 367.00 367.00 389.00 389.00 a
Non‐Agricultural 382.00 382.00 382.00 382.00 382.00 382.00 404.00 404.00 404.00 426.00 426.00 a
Real Daily Wage Rates (in pesos) , 2000=100 National Capital Region
Agricultural Plantation 223.16 220.03 219.33 215.36 212.44 211.40 224.60 221.75 217.42 227.89 228.55 a
Non‐Plantation 223.16 220.03 219.33 215.36 212.44 211.40 224.60 221.75 217.42 227.89 228.55 a
Non‐Agricultural 247.09 243.62 242.85 238.45 235.22 234.07 247.25 244.11 239.34 249.56 250.29 a
Notes: 1 Starting with January 2007 LFS round, the population projections based on the 2000 Census of Population was adopted to generate the labor force statistics per NSCB Resolution No. 1 Series of 2005. ֵ
Data not yet available
Numbers may not add up to total due to rounding. r Reviseda As of August
Sources of data: Bureau of Labor and Employment Statistics (BLES), Philippine Overseas Employment Administration (POEA), National Statistics Office (NSO), National Wages and Productivity Commission (NWPC),
and National Conciliation and Mediation Board (NCMB)
201120102009
3 CASH OPERATIONS OF THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT
for periods indicated
in billion pesos
2011
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3
Program
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Sep-11
Revenues 235.4 310.3 294.1 283.4 265.8 326.3 302.6 313.2 323.1 358.6 335.4 354.4
Tax 200.7 285.7 245.2 250.1 237.4 302.9 267.5 285.9 265.7 327.8 297.9 324.8
Non-tax 34.6 24.6 48.9 33.2 28.3 23.2 35.1 27.3 57.4 30.8 37.5 29.6
Grants 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Expenditures 355.0 344.1 378.2 344.4 400.0 388.8 365.7 367.9 349.3 349.6 371.2 436.6
Interest Payments 106.3 38.4 90.5 43.6 108.9 37.8 97.8 49.7 90.7 43.8 87.9 97.0
Equity 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.3 — 0.1 0.2 0.4
Net Lending 3.8 2.7 3.7 -5.1 2.7 1.8 2.1 2.7 2.4 9.9 2.8 6.4
Subsidy 2.2 4.8 5.6 4.9 3.3 4.1 2.2 11.3 7.1 7.1 4.9 7.6
Allotment to LGUs 62.4 70.0 66.8 65.4 70.4 74.4 67.6 67.1 76.4 78.8 74.9 74.0
Tax Expenditures 3.6 25.5 9.8 6.4 5.9 15.2 2.7 15.9 8.1 2.9 2.3 8.5
Others 176.5 202.5 201.6 228.4 208.3 255.1 193.2 219.9 164.6 207.0 198.1 238.7
Surplus/Deficit (-) -119.7 -33.7 -84.1 -61.0 -134.2 -62.6 -63.1 -54.7 -26.2 9.0 -35.8 -82.2
Financing 1
29.5 -9.1 87.0 122.5 54.4 87.1 168.0 42.1 -64.0 87.3 -13.6 38.1119.7 33.7 84.1 61.0 134.2 62.6 63.1 54.7 26.2 -9.0 35.8 82.2
External Borrowings 34.9 -3.4 49.3 71.7 54.9 3.0 45.2 29.9 54.4 -5.8 11.8 -32.9
Domestic Borrowings -5.4 -5.7 37.7 50.8 -0.5 84.1 122.8 12.3 -118.4 93.1 -25.3 71.0
Total Change in Cash: Deposit/Withdrawal (-) -146.3 -46.4 80.4 46.3 -48.4 15.5 101.6 -31.5 77.6 241.6 -307.3 -46.9
Budgetary -90.2 -42.8 2.8 61.5 -79.8 24.5 104.9 -12.5 -90.2 96.3 -49.3 -44.1
Non-Budgetary Accounts 2
-56.1 -3.6 77.6 -15.2 31.3 -9.1 -3.3 -18.9 167.8 145.3 -257.9 -2.8
1 Availment less repayment
2 Refers to accounts not included in the NG budget, e.g., sale, purchase or redemption of government securities, but included in the cash operations report to
show the complete relations in the movements of the cash accounts.
Note: Details may not add up to total due to rounding off
Source: Bureau of the Treasury
20112009 2010
4 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX IN THE PHILIPPINES (2000=100)
Quarterly Average
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 01Q Q2 Q3
All Items 135.9 137.3 139.1 139.5 139.8 140.6 142.6 144.1 147.6 154.3 160.0 158.0 157.8 159.1 160.4 162.6 164.5 165.9 166.6 167.4 171.2 173.3 174.0
Food, Beverages and Tobacco 128.6 129.9 131.4 132.5 132.9 133.4 135.2 137.9 142.2 151.8 158.2 157.0 159.2 160.4 161.2 164.2 165.1 165.3 166.5 167.4 171.5 172.2 172.9
Non-Food 143.2 144.8 146.7 146.5 146.7 147.7 149.9 150.3 152.9 156.7 161.7 159.1 156.3 157.8 159.7 161.0 163.9 166.4 166.7 167.2 170.9 174.5 175.1
Clothing 120.7 121.7 122.5 123.3 124.1 124.7 125.1 125.5 128.0 129.7 130.8 131.7 132.4 133.2 133.7 134.4 135.1 135.9 136.3 136.8 137.6 138.9 140.2
Housing & Repairs 130.5 131.7 132.5 132.9 133.3 133.7 134.2 134.4 137.0 139.1 140.8 141.5 142.6 143.3 143.9 144.5 145.2 145.7 146.3 147.2 148.1 149.0 149.6
Fuel, Light & Water 175.0 174.8 178.0 177.9 179.2 180.6 185.5 183.0 188.9 194.9 198.7 192.9 184.3 186.7 189.6 194.5 206.1 219.1 216.3 215.5 226.6 237.4 236.0
Services 157.9 161.1 164.8 163.0 162.3 164.5 168.3 169.9 171.8 178.0 189.6 182.5 176.1 178.4 182.2 183.1 186.0 187.5 188.6 189.8 194.9 199.9 201.4
Miscellaneous 119.5 120.4 121.0 121.4 121.9 122.3 122.7 123.0 124.4 125.7 126.7 127.7 128.5 129.3 129.7 130.1 130.6 131.1 131.4 131.6 132.0 132.7 133.3
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
All Items 2.1 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.0 2.4 4.5 3.7 -1.2 -0.1 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.5 2.3 1.3 0.4
Food, Beverages and Tobacco 1.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.3 1.4 2.0 3.1 6.8 4.2 -0.8 1.4 0.8 0.5 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.6 2.4 0.4 0.4
Non-Food 2.4 1.1 1.3 -0.2 0.2 0.7 1.5 0.2 1.8 2.5 3.2 -1.6 -1.7 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.8 1.5 0.2 0.3 2.2 2.1 0.3
Clothing 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9
Housing & Repairs 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.9 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4
Fuel, Light & Water 6.3 -0.1 1.9 -0.1 0.7 0.8 2.8 -1.4 3.3 3.2 1.9 -2.9 -4.4 1.3 1.6 2.6 5.9 6.3 -1.3 -0.4 5.1 4.8 -0.6
Services 1.7 2.0 2.3 -1.1 -0.4 1.3 2.3 1.0 1.1 3.6 6.6 -3.7 -3.5 1.3 2.1 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 2.7 2.6 0.7
Miscellaneous 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4
Source of basic data: National Statistics Office
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 1
2 0 0 82 0 0 6 2 0 1 0
2 0 1 0
2 0 0 9
2 0 0 9
Quarter-on-Quarter Change (in percent)
2 0 0 6
5 MONETARY INDICATORS (DCS CONCEPT) P
as of periods indicated
in billion pesos
Q1 Q2 Q3 *
Q4 *
Q1 *
Q2 *
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
A. Liquidity
1. M4 (2+7) 3,829.8 4,090.4 4,217.6 4,610.4 4,508.5 4,604.7 4,683.0 4,999.9 4,952.7 5,077.7 5,097.6 5,446.8 5,326.4 5,473.4 5,371.8
2. Broad Money Liabilities or M3 (5+6) 3,055.6 3,197.5 3,287.5 3,668.4 3,530.9 3,600.7 3,671.4 3,973.9 3,894.3 3,972.2 4,056.0 4,396.8 4,293.7 4,423.8 4,356.5
3. Currency Outside Depository Corporations and Transferable Deposits (Narrow Money or M1) 874.3 901.5 929.2 1,070.8 1,043.2 1,063.2 1,103.0 1,216.9 1,216.2 1,230.6 1,215.8 1,345.9 1,319.0 1,323.6 1,347.6
Currency Outside Depository Corporations (Currency in Circulation) 310.9 316.4 324.0 429.5 368.2 365.9 372.8 457.6 437.0 414.6 403.3 478.5 431.8 428.1 433.5
Transferable Deposits (Demand Deposits) 563.4 585.1 605.2 641.3 675.0 697.3 730.2 759.3 779.2 816.0 812.5 867.4 887.3 895.4 914.1
4. Other Deposits (Quasi-Money) 2,134.7 2,247.0 2,311.8 2,541.1 2,416.7 2,464.9 2,493.9 2,672.6 2,584.0 2,636.0 2,744.2 2,960.3 2,882.7 3,003.9 2,914.6
Savings Deposits 1,359.8 1,317.1 1,322.7 1,424.5 1,381.7 1,451.1 1,524.6 1,633.0 1,596.9 1,641.1 1,658.4 1,797.2 1,798.2 1,878.2 1,879.3
Time Deposits 774.9 929.9 989.1 1,116.6 1,035.0 1,013.8 969.3 1,039.6 987.1 994.9 1,085.9 1,163.1 1,084.5 1,125.7 1,035.3
5. M2 (3+4) 3,009.0 3,148.5 3,241.0 3,611.9 3,459.9 3,528.1 3,596.9 3,889.5 3,800.2 3,866.7 3,960.0 4,306.2 4,201.7 4,327.5 4,262.3
6. Securities Other Than Shares Included in Broad Money (Deposit Substitutes) 46.6 48.9 46.5 56.5 71.0 72.6 74.5 84.4 94.1 105.5 96.0 90.6 92.0 96.3 94.2
7. Transferable & Other Deposits in Foreign Currency (FCDU Deposits-Residents) 774.2 892.9 930.1 942.0 977.5 1,004.0 1,011.6 1,025.9 1,058.5 1,105.5 1,041.6 1,050.0 1,032.7 1,049.5 1,015.4
8. Liabilities Excluded from Broad-Money (Other Liabilities) 157.5 171.2 69.2 58.3 75.2 62.1 56.0 60.3 72.0 56.1 59.9 54.2 50.5 51.3 53.2
Bills Payable 155.7 169.3 67.3 56.4 73.3 60.2 54.1 58.4 70.1 54.2 57.9 52.2 48.5 49.4 51.2
Restricted Deposits 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
B. Credits
1. Net Domestic Assets 2,251.5 2,399.4 2,405.4 2,738.0 2,470.7 2,508.9 2,424.3 2,640.3 2,564.1 2,486.0 2,547.4 2,651.7 2,473.5 2,485.5 2,164.5
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas -1,091.4 -1,154.3 -1,221.8 -1,124.3 -1,305.5 -1,343.1 -1,460.9 -1,412.9 -1,468.9 -1,690.3 -1,812.0 -2,075.5 -2,278.3 -2,436.5 -2,747.5
Other Depository Corporations 3,342.8 3,553.7 3,627.2 3,862.4 3,776.1 3,852.0 3,885.3 4,053.1 4,033.1 4,176.2 4,359.4 4,727.1 4,751.8 4,922.0 4,911.9
2. Net Claims on Residents (Net Domestic Credits) 3,176.1 3,289.0 3,474.2 3,691.4 3,684.3 3,786.8 3,780.6 3,965.1 4,002.0 4,098.5 4,134.2 4,310.4 4,292.2 4,430.5 4,532.9
By End-User 3,176 3,289 3,474 3,691 3,684 3,787 3,781 3,965 4,002 4,099 4,134 4,310 4,292 4,431 4,533
Net Claims on the Public Sector (Public Sector) 1,108.7 1,087.0 1,134.9 1,199.2 1,244.0 1,251.9 1,257.4 1,269.5 1,359.3 1,359.5 1,370.7 1,379.8 1,371.1 1,313.8 1,319.2
Claims on Other Sectors (Private Sector) 2,067.4 2,202.0 2,339.3 2,492.2 2,440.3 2,534.9 2,523.2 2,695.6 2,642.7 2,739.0 2,763.4 2,930.7 2,921.0 3,116.7 3,213.8
By Institution 3,176.1 3,289.0 3,474.2 3,691.4 3,684.3 3,786.8 3,780.6 3,965.1 4,002.0 4,098.5 4,134.2 4,310.4 4,292.2 4,430.5 4,532.9
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas 217.4 189.4 194.1 221.8 238.1 223.2 163.2 151.2 179.8 153.9 90.7 170.8 110.7 -10.0 7.8
Other Depository Corporations 2,958.7 3,099.6 3,280.0 3,469.6 3,446.2 3,563.6 3,617.4 3,813.9 3,822.2 3,944.6 4,043.4 4,139.6 4,181.5 4,440.5 4,525.1
3. Net Other Items -924.6 -889.6 -1,068.8 -953.3 -1,213.6 -1,277.9 -1,356.3 -1,324.9 -1,437.9 -1,612.5 -1,586.8 -1,658.8 -1,818.7 -1,945.0 -2,368.5
C. Net Foreign Assets 1,735.9 1,862.2 1,881.4 1,930.6 2,113.0 2,157.9 2,314.7 2,419.9 2,460.6 2,647.8 2,610.1 2,849.2 2,903.4 3,039.2 3,260.5
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas 1,495.5 1,592.7 1,657.4 1,685.7 1,786.2 1,823.2 1,959.0 2,027.6 2,037.5 2,233.3 2,334.9 2,710.7 2,843.0 2,971.6 3,272.3
Net International Reserves 1,528.4 1,625.5 1,690.9 1,717.0 1,816.1 1,852.4 1,986.7 2,053.8 2,064.5 2,260.9 2,360.2 2,732.4 2,863.6 2,991.8 3,292.0
Foreign Assets 1,529.3 1,648.2 1,734.5 1,789.2 1,890.5 1,901.7 2,016.9 2,054.0 2,065.2 2,261.1 2,360.9 2,732.5 2,864.2 2,991.9 3,292.5
Foreign Liabilities 0.9 22.7 43.5 72.2 74.3 49.3 30.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.6
Medium & Long-Term Foreign Liabilities 32.9 32.8 33.6 31.3 29.9 29.2 27.7 26.2 27.1 27.6 25.3 21.7 20.6 20.2 19.7
Other Depository Corporations 240.4 269.6 224.1 244.9 326.8 334.7 355.7 392.3 423.2 414.5 275.1 138.5 60.4 67.5 -11.8
Foreign Assets 702.2 750.1 734.3 696.3 735.6 712.0 746.0 759.5 836.8 799.1 720.3 690.8 659.3 639.8 667.8
Foreign Liabilities 461.7 480.6 510.2 451.4 408.8 377.3 390.3 367.2 413.6 384.7 445.2 552.3 598.9 572.2 679.6
PPreliminary
Note: Details may not add up to totals due to rounding.
Source : Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
2008 2009 2010 2011
6 SELECTED DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES
for periods indicated; in percent per annum
2011 2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
1st
Qtr 2nd
Qtr 3rd
Qtr 4th
Qtr 1st
Qtr 2nd
Qtr 3rd
Qtr 4.0729
Interbank Call Loans 5.1956 4.5688 4.1672 4.1821 4.1957 4.2593 4.1819 4.2416 4.2491 4.6535 4.6849 -1.7150 1.4580 3.9172 1.2707 -0.0502 -0.0147 0.3166 1.2866 0.1762 0.1930
Savings Deposits 2.2330 2.1070 1.9610 1.9710 1.6580 1.5640 1.5840 1.5940 1.5490 1.5920 1.7800 -4.6776 -1.0038 1.7110 -0.9404 -2.5879 -2.7100 -2.2813 -1.3580 -2.5239 -2.8685
Time Deposits (All Maturities) 3.1740 2.9390 2.2970 2.4720 3.0610 2.9220 3.0050 2.9740 2.6150 2.8880 2.9120 -3.7366 -0.1718 2.0470 -0.4394 -1.1849 -1.3520 -0.8603 0.0220 -1.4579 -1.5725
Manila Reference Rates (All Maturities) 2
5.5000 5.4375 5.0000 4.8750 4.8125 4.8125 4.8750 4.8125 4.7500 4.7500 4.8750 -1.4106 2.3267 4.7500 1.9636 0.5666 0.5385 1.0097 1.8605 0.6771 0.2895
Lending Rates
9.5749 9.2773 9.1316 9.0040 8.9229 9.0378 8.8809 8.1141 7.5010 7.6660 7.9797 2.6643 6.1665 8.8816 6.0926 4.6770 4.7637 5.0156 5.1621 3.4280 3.2055
7.7867 7.3737 7.1201 6.9613 6.8231 6.9347 6.6742 5.9971 5.3930 5.5488 5.8310 0.8761 4.2629 6.8701 4.0499 2.5773 2.6607 2.8088 3.0450 1.3200 1.0883
9.4330 8.5440 7.9910 8.2470 7.8860 7.7420 7.6460 7.4080 6.8320 6.5550 7.0080 2.5224 5.4332 7.7410 5.3356 3.6401 3.4680 3.7807 4.4560 2.7591 2.0945
Bangko Sentral Rates
6.7500 6.7500 6.2500 6.0000 6.0000 N.T. N.T. N.T. 6.0000 6.2500 6.5000 -0.1606 3.6392 6.0000 3.0886 1.7541 N.T. N.T. N.T. 1.9271 1.7895
6.9532 6.3125 N.T. 6.0625 N.T. N.T. N.T. N.T. N.T. N.T. N.T. 0.0426 3.2017 N.T. 3.1511 N.T. N.T. N.T. N.T. N.T. N.T.
5.0936 4.4403 4.0253 4.0000 4.0000 4.0000 4.0000 4.0000 4.0227 4.4066 4.5000 -1.8170 1.3295 3.7753 1.0886 -0.2459 -0.2740 0.1347 1.0480 -0.0502 -0.0539
5.0070 4.3272 4.1897 N.T. N.T. 4.0794 N.T. 4.1011 4.0625 4.5748 N.T. -1.9036 1.2164 3.9397 N.T. N.T. -0.1946 N.T. 1.1491 -0.0104 0.1143
4.7070 3.9620 3.5223 3.5000 3.8333 4.0000 4.0000 4.0000 4.0140 4.4057 4.5000 -2.2036 0.8512 3.2723 0.5886 -0.4125 -0.2740 0.1347 1.0480 -0.0589 -0.0549
Rate on Government Securities
Treasury Bills, All Maturities 4.7990 4.5510 4.2930 4.2530 4.2270 4.1550 4.3270 3.2130 2.3360 1.7700 1.7610 -2.1116 1.4402 4.0430 1.3416 -0.0189 -0.1190 0.4617 0.2610 -1.7369 -2.6905
4.5280 4.3320 4.1070 3.8500 3.9050 3.8710 3.9630 2.6260 1.1670 1.4550 1.4850 -2.3826 1.2212 3.8570 0.9386 -0.3409 -0.4030 0.0977 -0.3260 -2.9059 -3.0055
4.7640 4.4920 4.2300 4.1210 4.1220 4.0900 4.2780 3.1420 2.0640 1.0830 1.8050 -2.1466 1.3812 3.9800 1.2096 -0.1239 -0.1840 0.4127 0.1900 -2.0089 -3.3775
4.9030 4.6770 4.4170 4.4640 4.5160 4.4850 4.5200 3.4490 2.9060 2.3820 1.8940 -2.0076 1.5662 4.1670 1.5526 0.2701 0.2110 0.6547 0.4970 -1.1669 -2.0785
Government Securities in the Secondary Market 5
3 Months 4.6117 4.6354 4.1583 4.2769 3.9865 4.0865 4.1742 1.3192 1.2231 3.0731 1.4112 -2.2989 1.4598 3.8458 1.3022 -0.2594 -0.1875 0.3089 -1.6328 -2.8498 -1.3874
6 Months 4.7229 4.8458 4.3367 4.4119 4.1396 4.3135 4.4135 1.8077 1.4158 3.1692 1.6173 -2.1877 1.6702 4.0242 1.4372 -0.1063 0.0395 0.5482 -1.1443 -2.6571 -1.2913
1-Year 4.8567 5.0021 4.4904 4.8104 4.4577 4.6996 4.6012 2.5192 2.4785 3.2842 1.7415 -2.0539 1.8265 4.1779 1.8357 0.2118 0.4256 0.7359 -0.4328 -1.5944 -1.1763
2-Years 5.3771 5.3771 4.8479 5.1077 4.8308 5.2769 5.0865 3.4846 4.5012 4.1362 2.8019 -1.5335 2.2015 4.5354 2.1330 0.5849 1.0029 1.2212 0.5326 0.4283 -0.3243
3-Years 5.8563 5.6896 5.3479 5.6058 5.2135 5.4923 5.1846 4.2288 5.2942 4.6146 3.8654 -1.0543 2.5140 5.0354 2.6311 0.9676 1.2183 1.3193 1.2768 1.2213 0.1541
4-Years 6.4000 5.9992 5.9492 6.1115 5.8962 5.9404 5.2538 4.5019 5.9615 5.0265 4.8981 -0.5106 2.8236 5.6367 3.1368 1.6503 1.6664 1.3885 1.5499 1.8886 0.5660
5-Years 6.7042 6.3729 6.3471 6.3615 6.4190 6.4058 5.4738 5.0308 6.0481 5.1865 5.1692 -0.2064 3.1973 6.0346 3.3868 2.1731 2.1318 1.6085 2.0788 1.9752 0.7260
7-Years 7.7375 7.4042 7.2208 7.3923 7.1862 7.2423 5.8519 5.3719 6.7165 5.8704 5.1963 0.8269 4.2286 6.9083 4.4176 2.9403 2.9683 1.9866 2.4199 2.6436 1.4099
10-Years 8.1563 8.1125 8.0267 8.1115 8.0400 7.9291 6.2327 6.1000 7.2062 6.5585 5.9188 1.2457 4.9369 7.7142 5.1368 3.7941 3.6551 2.3674 3.1480 3.1333 2.0980
20-Years 9.8146 9.2167 9.1833 9.1477 9.1077 8.8858 8.0981 8.1692 8.2308 8.2212 7.3308 2.9040 6.0411 8.8708 6.1730 4.8618 4.6118 4.2328 5.2172 4.1579 3.7607
25-Years 10.3208 10.1500 10.1833 9.3846 9.2096 9.1365 8.1673 8.1727 8.0765 8.2000 7.3262 3.4102 6.9744 9.8708 6.4099 4.9637 4.8625 4.3020 5.2207 4.0036 3.7395
1Nominal interest rate less inflation rate
2Refers to the New Manila Reference Rates based on combined transactions on time deposits and promissory notes of reporting commercial banks
3Refers to the weighted average interest rate of reporting commercial banks' interest incomes on their outstanding peso-denominated loans
4Weighted average of transacted rates
5End of Period
pPreliminary
N.T. - No transactions
Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Low
182-Days
364-Days
R/P (Term) 4
RR/P (Overnight) 4
RR/P (Term) 4
Rediscounting
91-Days
High
2011
All Maturities 3
R/P (Overnight) 4
REAL INTEREST RATES 1
20092009 2010
NOMINAL INTEREST RATES
7 NUMBER OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 1
as of periods indicated
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q43
Q1 Q2
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
T o t a l 24,017 24,192 24,470 24,874 25,082 25,548
Head Offices 7,365 7,365 7,353 7,390 7,383 7,415
Branches/Agencies 16,652 16,827 17,117 17,484 17,699 18,133
Banks 8,663 8,685 8,740 8,869 8,870 8,915
Head Offices 779 773 764 758 746 739
Branches/Agencies 7,884 7,912 7,976 8,111 8,124 8,176
Universal and Commercial Banks 4,545 4,596 4,615 4,679 4,695 4,764
Head Offices 38 38 38 38 38 38
Branches/Agencies 4,507 4,558 4,577 4,641 4,657 4,726
Thrift Banks 1,339 1,329 1,395 1,419 1,419 1,381
Head Offices 74 74 73 73 73 72
Branches/Agencies 1,265 1,255 1,322 1,346 1,346 1,309
Savings and Mortgage Banks 866 856 922 939 894 854
Head Offices 29 29 29 29 28 27
Branches/Agencies 837 827 893 910 866 827
Private Development Banks 308 308 309 313 357 358
Head Offices 19 19 19 19 20 20
Branches/Agencies 289 289 290 294 337 338
Stock Savings and Loan Assns. 138 138 137 140 141 142
Head Offices 23 23 22 22 22 22
Branches/Agencies 115 115 115 118 119 120
Microfinance Banks 27 27 27 27 27 27
Head Offices 3 3 3 3 3 3
Branches/Agencies 24 24 24 24 24 24
Rural Banks 2,779 2,760 2,730 2,771 2,756 2,770
Head Offices 667 661 653 647 635 629
Branches/Agencies 2,112 2,099 2,077 2,124 2,121 2,141
(continued next page)
2010 2011
7 NUMBER OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 1
(Continuation)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q43
Q1 Q2
Non-Banks 15,354 15,507 15,730 16,005 16,212 16,633
Head Offices 6,586 6,592 6,589 6,632 6,637 6,676
Branches/Agencies 8,768 8,915 9,141 9,373 9,575 9,957
Investment Houses 34 34 34 34 28 28
Head Offices 21 21 21 21 18 18
Branches/Agencies 13 13 13 13 10 10
Finance Companies 49 48 55 55 47 47
Head Offices 24 23 24 24 21 21
Branches/Agencies 25 25 31 31 26 26
Investment Companies 4 4 4 4 4 4
Head Offices 4 4 4 4 4 4
Branches/Agencies - - - - - -
Securities Dealers/Brokers 15 15 15 15 14 14
Head Offices 15 15 15 15 14 14
Branches/Agencies - - - - - -
Pawnshops 14,953 15,105 15,321 15,596 15,818 16,239
Head Offices 6,321 6,328 6,324 6,367 6,381 6,420
Branches/Agencies 8,632 8,777 8,997 9,229 9,437 9,819
Lending Investors 2 2 2 2 2 2
Head Offices 2 2 2 2 2 2
Branches/Agencies - - - - - -
Non-Stock Savings and Loan Assns. 164 166 166 166 167 167
Head Offices 70 70 70 70 69 69
Branches/Agencies 94 96 96 96 98 98
Private Insurance Companies 2
123 p
123 p
123 p
123 p
123 p
123 p
Head Offices 119 119 119 119 119 119
Branches/Agencies 4 4 4 4 4 4
Government Non-Banks 4 4 4 4 4 4
Head Offices 4 4 4 4 4 4
Branches/Agencies - - - - - -
Venture Capital Corporations 1 1 1 1 - -
Head Offices 1 1 1 1 - -
Branches/Agencies - - - - - -
Credit Card Companies 4 4 4 4 4 4
Head Offices 4 4 4 4 4 4
Branches/Agencies - - - - - -
Other Non-Bank with QBF 1 1 1 1 1 1
Head Offices 1 1 1 1 1 1
Branches/Agencies - - - - - -
1 Refers to the number of financial establishments which includes the head offices and branches; excludes the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.
2 Covers only the head offices and their foreign branches.
3 Starting Q4 2009, data include other banking offices per Circular 505 and 624 dated 22 December 2005 and 13 October 2008, respectively; Q3 2009 data
were revised for comparability of coverage with that of Q4 2009. (Other banking offices refer to any office or place of business in the Philippines other than
the head office, branch or extension offfice, which primarily engages in banking activities other than the acceptance of deposits and/or servicing of withdrawals
thru tellers or other authorized personnel.)p
Preliminary_
zero or nil
Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Q:\#COMMON - FOF_FA\Monitored Financial Statistics_ Indicators\LTP\[_Table 7_Number of FIs_template.xls]template
20112010
8 TOTAL RESOURCES OF THE PHILIPPINE FINANCIAL SYSTEM 1
as of periods indicated
in billion pesos
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar May
T o t a l 8,208.4 8,335.0 8,537.4 9,023.6 8,911.5p
9,103.2p
9,163.1p
Banks 6,500.3 6,594.8 6,726.1 7,230.2 7,118.1p
7,309.8p
7,369.7p
Universal and Commercial Banks 2
5,773.6 5,889.9 5,955.0 6,423.7 6,350.5 6,548.1 6,598.1
Thrift Banks 2
554.7 558.2
597.5
626.4
587.5
581.5
591.5p
Rural Banks 172.0 146.7 173.6 180.1 180.1a
180.1a
180.1a
Non-Banks 3
1,708.1
1,740.2 1,811.2
1,793.4 1,793.4a
1,793.4a
1,793.4a
1 Excludes the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas; amount includes allowance for probable losses
2 Based on the new Financial Reporting Package that was implemented beginning March 2008, asset is valued gross of amortization, depreciation and allowance
for probable losses; prior to 2008, data were based on Consolidated Statement of Condition which valued asset gross of allowance for probable losses and
net of amortization and depreciation.3 Includes Investment Houses, Finance Companies, Investment Companies, Securities Dealers/Brokers, Pawnshops, Lending Investors, Non Stocks Savings
and Loan Assns., Venture Capital Corps., and Credit Card Companies which are under BSP supervision; also includes Private and Government Insurance
Companies (i.e., SSS and GSIS). a As of end-December 2010
p Preliminary
Notes: Data on Universal, Commercial Banks and Thrift Banks are based on the new Financial Reporting Package (FRP) beginning March 2008.
Data on Rural Banks and Non-Banks are based on Consolidated Statement of Condition (CSOC).
Details may not add up to total due to rounding off.
Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
(3)
Institutions
(1)
(2)
20112010
9 RATIO OF NON-PERFORMING LOANS (NPL) AND LOAN LOSS PROVISIONS
TO TOTAL LOANS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM
end-of-period
in percent
Ubs &KBs TBs RBs Total Ubs &KBs TBs RBs Total
2005
Mar 11.463 11.525 15.829 11.606 7.377 4.736 4.951 7.077
Jun 9.375 9.920 15.728 9.623 6.700 4.541 5.112 6.464
Sep 9.609 10.120 15.757 9.866 7.091 4.749 5.112 6.814
Dec 8.206 9.736 14.524 8.562 6.358 4.612 5.027 6.154
2006
Mar 8.007 9.596 12.026 8.290 6.294 4.601 4.134 6.063
Jun 7.391 9.205 12.075 7.733 5.919 4.930 4.071 5.756
Sep 7.431 8.771 11.626 7.722 6.120 4.811 3.991 5.905
Dec 5.662 8.220 10.867 6.108 4.679 4.055 4.589 4.611
2007
Mar 5.275 7.267 10.924 5.704 4.285 3.667 3.879 4.199
Jun 5.208 7.864 10.568 5.720 4.370 3.969 3.679 4.297
Sep 5.191 7.461 9.859 5.637 4.604 3.712 3.393 4.451
Dec 4.448 6.846 9.820 4.929 4.151 3.235 3.579 4.025
2008
Mar 4.524 6.649 9.697 4.990 4.220 3.231 3.524 4.075
Jun 4.010 6.569 9.809 4.500 3.876 3.240 3.612 3.798
Sep 4.030 6.606 10.131 4.530 3.825 3.485 3.810 3.787
Dec 3.524 6.622 9.973 4.061 3.524 3.548 3.792 3.536
2009
Mar 3.562 7.685 10.689 4.227 3.537 3.754 4.023 3.575
Jun 3.360 7.467 10.754 4.039 3.438 3.939 4.136 3.514
Sep 3.249 8.436 10.585 4.024 3.615 4.201 4.100 3.691
Dec 2.969 7.272 10.414 3.640 3.335 3.760 4.052 3.401
2010p
Mar 3.215 7.849 9.425 3.928 3.634 3.958 4.409 3.696
Jun 3.268 7.928 9.418 3.957 3.557 4.206 4.567 3.657
Sep 3.113 8.213 9.629 3.880 3.646 4.227 4.635 3.741
Dec 2.883 7.322 9.884 3.594 3.412 3.929 4.920 3.517
2011p
Mar 2.986 7.322a
9.884a
3.692 3.594 3.929a
4.920a
3.674
Jun 2.446 7.322a
9.884a
3.169 3.087 3.929a
4.920a
3.228
Aug 2.516 7.322a
9.884a
3.224 3.057 3.929a
4.920a
3.201
pPreliminary
Source: SDC/DES
TOTAL LOAN PROVISIONS/TOTAL LOANSTOTAL NPL/TOTAL LOANS
10 STOCK MARKET TRANSACTIONS
volume in million shares, value in million pesos
2011
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Volume 69579.4 133932.5 195454.1 141858.4 81561.9 116556.1 140630.9 90817.3 144561.7 232516.1 431850.7
Financials 737.9 924.7 730.4 1181.7 706.9 1102.6 1233.1 1045.1 649.8 629.8 1437.0
Industrial 7840.3 18554.7 9245.7 10217.5 8211.6 9193.1 12575.0 8006.7 6459.5 5767.2 29367.4
Holding Firms 3634.8 8123.0 17225.3 11100.4 9992.8 18706.3 31402.9 13802.8 23546.0 11491.6 22863.9
Property 11164.9 24090.1 19723.3 12312.5 16449.0 13428.3 24833.8 15387.5 19404.6 13990.8 18584.9
Services 21383.4 14977.9 55167.5 40108.7 11163.4 10513.6 9146.3 5881.9 5078.6 4239.7 18563.1
Mining & Oil 24804.2 67260.6 93361.6 66937.0 35038.1 63612.2 61439.7 46693.2 89423.2 196397.0 341034.3
SME 13.8 1.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
Value 120004.1 270610.4 238779.4 364762.5 231787.4 281511.8 329652.7 364431.8 325016.5 336795.1 384521.8
Financials 12038.4 22259.5 22031.7 22910.7 19249.4 42952.4 49558.7 48136.4 31968.1 34907.8 49817.9
Industrial 48376.9 143324.0 68718.8 193186.8 97933.0 106428.1 91394.1 80222.0 100461.7 92832.9 107984.7
Holding Firms 12254.7 21405.8 42277.8 36147.3 36333.4 52522.4 66888.3 75355.9 74750.5 79750.3 63531.9
Property 12366.5 30477.2 34122.1 28268.7 29785.7 34188.0 55933.4 51893.5 39979.0 35069.7 39404.4
Services 30453.4 44640.0 53720.5 32531.1 36228.1 33743.6 43995.4 78756.4 53189.5 47266.2 44127.9
Mining & Oil 4498.5 8502.0 17907.3 51716.7 12257.6 11677.1 21882.4 30067.5 24667.6 46968.0 79655.1
SME 15.8 2.0 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Composite Index 1894.5 2310.3 2827.8 3002.1 3052.9 3311.8 3697.8 4141.2 3901.1 4285.1 4283.9
Sum of details may not add up to totals due to rounding.
Source : Philippine Stock Exchange
2 0 0 9 2010