Module 3

Adaptation & mitigation –

Moving to climate-resilient, low-

emission development

Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility

Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change

Key topics covered by this module

• Vulnerability, adaptation, other key concepts

• The development–adaptation continuum

• From biophysical to socio-economic impacts

• Moving to climate-resilient, low-emission• Moving to climate-resilient, low-emissiondevelopment

• Tools for raising awareness and buildingpartnerships

• Illustration: macroeconomic analysis in support ofawareness raising

Vulnerability and related conceptsVulnerability and related concepts

Key concepts

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

Wealth, age, gender,social group

Education & skills

Access to info &technology

Resilience+ +

+

Vulnerability

technology

‘Built’ and ‘green’infrastructure

Institutions, socialorganisation, culture

Equity & (in)equality

Development level

AdaptationMaladaptation

-

+-

Expected lifetime, exposure andadaptation requirements

• Lifetime of a programme or project:

– the period over which it is expected to producea stream of benefits without requiring significantreinvestment

– exceeds both the construction phase (for infrastructure– exceeds both the construction phase (for infrastructure

projects) and the period of implementation with the help ofexternal financing (for donor-supported projects)

• Determining a programme’s lifetime is key fordetermining its exposure and adaptation needs:– up to 10 years: consider current climate variability

– above 10 years: consider longer-term climate change as well

The development–adaptation continuumThe development–adaptation continuum

Adaptation and development

• Development, notably through achieving theMDGs, is critical to reducing vulnerability to climatechange

– The factors that constrain or facilitate adaptation areoften the same factors that constrain or facilitateoften the same factors that constrain or facilitatedevelopment

• Most sustainable & equitable developmentprocesses can bridge the ‘adaptation deficit’

– i.e. the failures in managing current climate variability

Source: Schipper et al (2008)

Adaptation mainstreaming: threelevels of intervention

Specificadaptationmeasures

Focus on:- Policy- Planning- Budgeting

Strengthening the base

Mainstreamadaptation measures

Source: UNDP-UNEP (2010)

- Budgeting- Institutional strengthening

The development–adaptationcontinuum

Vulnerability Resilience & adaptation

Development Response Climate risk Adaptation

Sources: McGray et al (2007), OECD (2009), Olhoff & Schaer (2010)

Developmentactivities

=> Addressing thedrivers of

vulnerability

Responsecapacity building

=> Developmentaland climate

adaptation benefits

Climate riskmanagement

(e.g. DRR)

=> Developmentalbenefits as a side

effect

Adaptationmeasures

=> Quasi-exclusive focus on

adaptation

Strengtheningthe base

Mainstreamadaptation measures

Specific adaptationmeasures

From biophysical to socio-economic impactsFrom biophysical to socio-economic impacts

From biophysical to socioeconomicimpacts

Biophysicalimpacts

Changes in t°

Changes in rainfallpatterns

Shifts in seasons

Socioeconomicimpacts

Damage to ordestruction ofinfrastructure

Reduced availability ofhydropower

VulnerabilityMore frequent or severestorms, floods, droughts

Raised sea level

Erosion, desertification

Changes in waterquality/availability

Changes in ecosystems

Biodiversity loss

Disease & pestoutbreaks, ...

hydropower

Economic disruption,loss of livelihoods, social

disruption

Reduced food security,malnutrition

Increased mortality andmorbidity

Conflicts, populationdisplacement, human

migrations, ...

Vulnerabilityfactors

Group work:

Vulnerability factors and possible impacts

Addressing vulnerability factorsand impacts

Biophysicalimpacts

Socioeconomicimpacts

Vulnerabilityfactorsfactors

Climate riskmanagement

Specificadaptationmeasures

Developmentactivities

Responsecapacity building

Climate riskmanagement

Specificadaptationmeasures

Moving to climate-resilient developmentMoving to climate-resilient development

From project-based approaches...

• Project-based adaptation approaches such asthose developed in NAPAs are a first step in theright direction:

– Contribution to national capacity building

– Involvement of stakeholders at grassroots level– Involvement of stakeholders at grassroots level

– Identified projects usually correspond to real prioritiesand involve wider developmental benefits

• But there are also problems:

– Poor institutional arrangements for implementation

– Low capacity for adaptation planning andimplementation

Source: World Bank, WDR 2010

... to climate-resilient development

• In the medium and long term, standalone projectsare unlikely to meet all adaptation requirements in acost-effective manner

• There is a strong case for mainstreaming climate• There is a strong case for mainstreaming climatechange at a more strategic level, in developmentand poverty reduction policies/strategies and insector programmes

• Climate-resilient development results from theadaptation mainstreaming process

Climate-resilient developmentand environmental sustainability

• Environmental sustainability is a key aspectof climate-resilient development and usually alsosupports mitigation objectives

• ‘Green infrastructure’:

– the life-supporting and regulation services provided by thenatural environment and ecosystems

• ‘Green infrastructure’ approach:

– plan and manage the use of land so as to preserve anadequate provision of life-supporting services

– a planning framework for new developments, supportingenvironmental, social and economic sustainability

Types of adaptation measures

• UNFCCC typology of adaptation options:

– Measures that foster behavioural change

– Technological and engineering solutions

– Risk management and vulnerability reduction strategies

– Research

– Capacity building

• For examples based on this typology, see EC (2009)Guidelines on the Integration of Environment and ClimateChange in Development Cooperation, p. 124

• Relevant measures are of course context-specificand determined by the mainstreaming process

Climate-resilient development:optimising outcomes

Climate-resilient

Priority torobust, low-or no-regretmeasures

Robust &flexible

infrastructureoptions

Start byaddressing

currentclimate risks &resilient

development

climate risks &vulnerability

Acceleratedecentralisation topromote local-level

adaptation &preparedness

Urban & land useplanning: future growth in

less exposed locations,relocate if necessary

Source: OECD (2010)

Moving to low-emission developmentMoving to low-emission development

Main sources of GHGemissions (global level)

Source of emissions % of total globalemissions (2005)

Energy, of which: 66.5%

- Electricity and heat 24.9%

- Transportation 14.3%

- Other fuel combustion (for heating buildings) 8.6%- Other fuel combustion (for heating buildings) 8.6%

- Industry 14.7%

- Fugitive emissions (oil & gas industry) 4.0%

Industrial processes 4.3%

Land use change (primarily deforestation) 12.2%

Agriculture 13.8%

Waste 3.2%

Source: Herzog (2005) – World Resources Institute, Washington, DC

Mitigation: main targets foremission reductions

• Generally, the three ‘sectors’ that are thebiggest contributors to GHG emissions are alsothe main targets for emission reductions:

– Energy (fossil fuels)– Energy (fossil fuels)

– Agriculture

– Land use change, in particular deforestation

• Country-specific patterns of emissions should beconsidered when determining national prioritiesfor contribution to the global climate mitigationeffort

Role of natural terrestrial systemsin climate mitigation

Atmosphere

CO2

CH4

Forests

Net sink (treebiomass + soilorganic matter)

Peatlands

Largest & mostefficient terrestrial

store of carbonbiomass

Grasslands

Net carbon sink ifnot degraded

Cultivatedsystems

Both a sink and asource of GHGs,

net balancedepends oncultivationmethods

4

N2O

Land-use related mitigationoptions

• According to McKinsey (2009):

– approx. 33% of total potential for reducing GHG emissionsat a cost not exceeding €60 per tCO2e is related to landuse (forestry and agriculture)

– 90% of the abatement opportunities associated with thesesectors are located in developing countries

– agriculture- and forestry-related measures generally havelow capital intensity (i.e. do not require particularly highextra upfront investment), while also entailing low(sometimes negative) abatement costs

Mitigation in the Pacific region

• Pacific island countries are responsible only fora tiny share of global GHG emissions

• Energy efficiency and renewable energy are apriority and are being pursued through a number ofpriority and are being pursued through a number ofregional initiatives

NAMAs

• Many developing countries have now submittedtheir NAMAs to the UNFCCC Secretariat

– NAMAS = nationally appropriate mitigation actions

– These voluntary mitigation measures are consistent with– These voluntary mitigation measures are consistent witha country’s development strategy, and are meant to put iton a more sustainable development path

• This is a good starting point for addressing themitigation challenge without compromisingdevelopment objectives

Towards low-emissiondevelopment (1)

• Climate mitigation should not be seen only asa constraint but also as a source of opportunity

– In many instances the adoption of mitigation measuresmay actually make a positive contribution to developmentobjectives (e.g. ‘co-benefits’, sounder management of naturalresources, new sources of growth)

– Countries with little developed infrastructure have aspecific opportunity to ‘leap-frog’ outdated technologiesand avoid ‘lock-in’ into carbon-intensive energy andindustrial infrastructure

Towards low-emissiondevelopment (2)

• Priorities for developing countries include:

– promoting energy efficiency• including in urban development and transport policies

• Including dismantling of fuel subsidies and other barriers/disincentives

– opting for low-emission, renewable sources of energy– opting for low-emission, renewable sources of energy

– designing policies that balance competing objectives:• sustained economic growth

• improved access to energy for the poor

• enhanced energy security

• improved environmental outcomes

– considering land-use related options, if relevant in view ofnational circumstances

Green jobs

• ‘Green jobs’:

– jobs associated with the deployment of clean technologiesand the adoption of improved environmental practices

– may be related to both adaptation and mitigation

– possible sectors include renewable energy, publictransport, clean technologies, building and constructionindustry, recycling, retail, agriculture (e.g. soilconservation, water efficiency), forestry (e.g. afforestation,reforestation, sustainable forestry, agroforestry)

– active training and capacity building policies required

Green growth (1)

• Green growth:

– ‘A way to pursue economic growth and development,while preventing environmental degradation, biodiversityloss and unsustainable natural resource use’

• Green growth strategy:

– ‘Aims at maximising the chances of exploiting cleanersources of growth, thereby leading to a moreenvironmentally sustainable growth model’

– Green growth is relevant to both developed anddeveloping countries

Source: OECD (2010)

Green growth (2)

• Green growth:

– ‘As long as the problem is perceived as a trade-offbetween improving living standards and the health of theplanet, then the ability of countries to alleviate climatechange will be severely constrained’change will be severely constrained’

– We must ‘devise strategies to revitalize the globaleconomy that can be both climate conscious and climateresilient’

– Trade-offs will always exist, but in a long-term perspective,the transition towards a low-emission economy canaccelerate sustainable growth

Source: Dervis et al., The Brookings Institution (2009)

Supporting green growth

Green

Mix of policyinstruments

creatingincentives &disincentives

Long-term,stable supportfor R&D andinnovation Diffusion of

cleantechnologies

& relatedknowledge

growthknowledge

(and removalof barriers)

Support fortechnologytransfers Management of

negativeemployment &

distribution effectsof transition

Developmentof new PAFs

Main source: OECD (2010)

Climate-resilient, low-emissiondevelopment

• Both climate-resilient development and low-emission development result from mainstreamingclimate change in policymaking and planning

Adaptationmainstreaming

Mainstreaming ofclimate change

mitigation

Low-emissiondevelopment

Climate-resilientdevelopment

The twoapproaches arecomplementary

In both cases,focus on co-

benefits

Adaptation and mitigation:possible conflicts

• Adaptation and mitigation are both essential; theyare the complementary elements of the response toclimate change

• Mitigation measures should not:• Mitigation measures should not:

– be incompatible with adaptation policies and requirements

– result in increased vulnerability to the effects of climatechange

– rely on environmentally unsustainable practices• e.g. agrofuels may be a threat to food security, water availability

and ecosystems

Adaptation and mitigation:synergies and complementarity

• On the other hand, quite frequently adaptation andmitigation measures are congruent, so thatmitigation produces a double stream of benefits

– e.g. reduced tillage agriculture enhances carbon– e.g. reduced tillage agriculture enhances carbonsequestration in soils while supporting soil moistureretention, thus increasing resilience to dry spells

– e.g. sustainable reforestation may simultaneouslyenhance carbon stocks and, by offering new livelihoodopportunities, enhance the adaptive capacity of localcommunities

Raising awareness and building partnershipsRaising awareness and building partnerships

Tools supporting advocacy andpartnership building

Communicationand advocacy

Nationalconsensus on

Vulnerability &impact

assessments

Macro and meso

Partnershipbuilding

consensus onand commitment

to climate-resilient, low-

emissiondevelopment

Macro and mesoeconomicanalysis

Pilot projects

Adapted from UNDP-UNEP (2010)

Vulnerability and adaptationassessment

• A vulnerability and adaptation assessmentwould typically focus on 3 units of analysis:

– Places: land, water, ecosystems, ‘natural capital’ and‘built infrastructure’

– People: individuals, communities, ‘human capital’,livelihoods

– Institutions: sectors, organisations, how they relate toeach other, ‘social capital’

• It should assess both current & future vulnerabilityto determine possible adaptation measures

Adapted from: Downing & Patwardhan (2004)

Steps in community vulnerability &adaptation assessment & action

Source: IPCC (2007c) 4th

Assessment Report, WG II- Fig. 16.3

Kiribati vulnerability andadaptation study (1999-2000)

• Without adaptation, by 2050, climate-induceddamages expected to amount to $8-16 million/year

• This finding led to the development of the KiribatiAdaptation ProgrammeAdaptation Programme

– Ph. I (2003-2005): assessment of adaptation options andinterventions, dvpt of a national vision for adaptation

– Phase II (2006-2010): pilot implementation: adaptationmainstreaming, capacity building, implementation ofadaptation measures

– Phase III (2010-2015): expanded programme for CCadaptation, incl. disaster risk reduction measures

Mapping vulnerability

• Geographical Information System (GIS) toolscan be used to map vulnerability

• Used to visualise and assess the possiblesynergies between vulnerability factors in specificsynergies between vulnerability factors in specificlocations

– e.g. combining on a map poverty areas with areasexposed to specific natural disasters (floods,landslides, storm surges) will support the identificationof ‘high-risk’ areas, and the development andprioritisation of disaster risk reduction measures

GIS-based mapping of vulnerability:illustration (1)

Elevation map of central Apia

Elevation

0 m

1 m

Exhibit 3 – Highly granular geographic information has been used tosegment assets according to their elevation above sea level

Approach

• Starting point was adigital map ofSamoa with contourlines (2m lines incoastal areas)

• In a second step, a

Source: Economics of Climate Adaptation (2009) Test case on Samoa –Focus on risks caused by sea level rise, Fig. 03, p. 122

SOURCE: Team analysis

Building

Road

>4 m

2 m• In a second step, a

more granularsegmentation ofcoastal areas wasobtained by usingstate-of-the-art GISsoftware

• Finally, geo-coordinates ofbuildings and roads,were used todetermine the assetexposure to coastalflooding risk

GIS-based mapping of vulnerability:illustration (2)

Source: Elrick et al. (2009) Planning Manual: Supporting land usedecision making in the Republic of Kiribati, Fig. 2-3, pp. 10-11

Macro and meso economicanalysis

• Economic analysis may be a powerful tool formotivating policy makers to take action

– Macro level: analysis of the impact climate change mayhave on the national economy

– Meso level: analysis at the level of key sectors or sub-sectors of the national economy

• The costs of inaction (climate-related losses) arecompared with the net benefits (costs minus avoided

losses) of taking action

• The analysis should also consider the distribution oflosses and benefits (among social groups, regions...)

Economic & social impacts ofdisasters in the Pacific (1950-2004)

Country Disastersreported

Reported losses,2004

(million USD)

Average pop.affected in

disaster years

Average impacton GDP in

disaster years

Fiji 38 $1,174.6 10.8% 7.7%Fiji 38 $1,174.6 10.8% 7.7%

Samoa 12 $743.4 42.2% 45.6%

Vanuatu 37 $384.4 15.5% 30.0%

Tonga 16 $171.1 42.0% 14.2%

Guam 11 $3,056.3 3.7% n/a

Source: UNDP-UNEP (2010),based on World Bank (2006)

Relevance of pilot projects

Pilot projects

Test whatworks and

does not work(relevance,

effectiveness)

Supportlesson

drawing foradaptive

management Mobilisecommunities,local/regional

authorities & otherPilot projects authorities & otherstakeholders

Help fosterinterest andcommitmentof national

authorities &other

stakeholders

Create motivationand knowledgefor replication/

scaling-up

References (1)

• Dervis K., Jones A., Kornbluh K. & Puritz, S. (2009) Climate Crisis, Credit Crisis: The Quest forGreen Growth. Brookings Blum Roundtable 2009 report. The Brookings Institution, Washington,DC. Available from: http://www.brookings.edu/reports/2010/0422_climate_change_poverty.aspx

• Downing T. & Patwardhan A. (2004) Assessing Vulnerability for Climate Adaptation. In: Lim B. &Spanger-Siegfried E. (eds.) (2004) Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change:Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures. United Nations DevelopmentProgramme/Cambridge University Press, New York. Available from:Programme/Cambridge University Press, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/climatechange/adapt/apf.html

• Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group (2009) Shaping climate-resilient development: aframework for decision-making. Climate Works Foundation, Global Environment Facility,European Commission, McKinsey & Company, The Rockfeller Foundation, Standard CharteredBank & Swiss Re. Available from:http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/Social_Sector/our_practices/Economic_Development/Knowledge_Highlights/Economics_of_climate_adaptation.aspx

• Elrick C. & Kay R. (2009a) Risk Assessment Handbook: A methodology for Coastal Hazard RiskDiagnosis for the Republic of Kiribati, Volume II. Prepared for Kiribati Adaptation Project Phase II(KAP II), Government of Kiribati. Available from:http://www.climate.gov.ki/Kiribati_climate_change_strategies.html#apm1_2

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References (2)

• Herzog T. (2005) World Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005. Working paper, World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, DC. Available from: http://www.wri.org/publication/world-greenhouse-gas-emissions-in-2005

• IPCC (2007c) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution ofWorking Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange [Parry M.L., Canziani O.F., Palutikof J.P., van der Linden P.J. & Hanson C.E. (eds.)].Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.chCambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.ch

• McGray H., Hammill A. & Bradley R. (2007) Weathering the Storm: Options for FramingAdaptation and Development. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. Available from:http://pdf.wri.org/weathering_the_storm.pdf

• McKinsey & Company (2009) Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy: Version 2 of the GlobalGreenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curve. Available from:http://www.mckinsey.com/globalGHGcostcurve

• OECD (2009) Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation: Policyguidance. OECD Publishing, Paris. [Read-only, browse-it edition] Available from:http://browse.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/pdfs/browseit/4309171E.PDF

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References (3)

• OECD (2010b) Interim Report of the Green Growth Strategy: Implementing our commitment for asustainable future. Meeting of the OECD Council at Ministerial Level, 27-28 May 2010.C/MIN(2010)5. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris. Available from:http://www.oecd.org/document/3/0,3343,en_2649_37465_45196035_1_1_1_1,00.html

• Olhoff A. & Schaer C. (2010) Screening tools and guidelines to support the mainstreaming ofclimate change adaptation into development assistance: A stocktaking report. Environment &climate change adaptation into development assistance: A stocktaking report. Environment &Energy Group, United Nations Development Programme, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/climatechange/library_integrating_cc.shtml

• Schipper E.L., Paz Cigarán M. & McKenzie Hedger M. (2008) Adaptation to Climate Change: Thenew challenge for development in the developing world. Environment & Energy Group, UnitedNations Development Programme, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/climatechange/docs/English/UNDP_Adaptation_final.pdf

• UNDP-UNEP (2010) Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Development Planning: AGuidance Note for Practitioners. Draft version. UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative. Finalversion available from: http://www.unpei.org/knowledge-resources/publications.html

• World Bank (2010) Development and Climate Change. World Development Report 2010. WorldBank, Washington, DC. Available from: http://go.worldbank.org/ZXULQ9SCC0

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