Lecture 12Mitigation and adapting to climate

change

LSGI 1B02 Climate change and Society

LEUNG Wing-mo

Climate change – the state of the science

• Movie , by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_EWOrZQ3L-c#t=207

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Can we avoid Climate Change?

NO

Can we reduce Climate Change?

YES

Dealing with Climate Change: Mitigation (減緩)and Adaptation(適應)

Mitigation (reduce GHG)• To decrease force or intensity.

• To alleviate, lower risk.

• To make something very bad less bad.

• To reduce emissions of GHG, enhance sinks of GHG.

Adaptation (prepare for unavoidable impacts) • To manage the change that occurs as mitigation strategies are implemented.•To alter the exposure•To reduce the sensitivity•To increase capacity to adjust• To avoid unavoidable consequences of climate change.

•Adaptation and mitigation are complements, not trade-offs

Actor and environmental activist Leonardo DiCaprio addresses the UN summit meeting on climate change. DiCaprio was named a United Nations Messenger of Peace in 2014.

• As an actor I pretend for a living. I play fictitious characters often solving fictitious problems.

• I believe humankind has looked at climate change in that same way: as if it were a fiction, happening to someone else’s planet, as if pretending that climate change wasn’t real would somehow make it go away.

• I beg you to face it with courage. And honesty.

Warsaw Climate Change Conference, 11 – 22 Nov 2013Mr Sano, the Philippines : “In solidarity with my countrymen who are

struggling to find food, I will commence a fasting for the climate, until a meaningful outcome is in sight.” Sano linked the staggering devastation

caused by Typhoon Haiyan to a changing climate.

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Hennessy, K., B. et al. 2007: Australia and New Zealand. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the AR4 of the IPCC

Q1. Why worry about a few degrees change?

Q2. Why don’t we wait and see?

• we can’t stop climate change quickly when we find out it’s harm;• Non-linear, multiple feedback – abrupt, persistent, costly changes

International concensus - Limit temperature rise to 2 C from pre-industrial level

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(d) climate change adaptation

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Coping, resilience and adaptation

Human’s systematic response to climate change

Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM

Co-benefits of Reducing Emissions

Many emissions reduction strategies alsoprovide benefits for:

•air quality, •public health, •energy security, •agricultural production,•balance of trade, •employment, •income generation, wealth creation, and poverty alleviation.

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Mitigation

Mitigation needs to be a global effort :United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,

(UNFCCC )

• Kyoto Protocol [京都議訂書], 2008 - 2012 (191 UN parties) –– an international treaty under UNFCCC (Canada

and USA withdrew their endorsement);– 2012 Conference of the Parties (COP) (COP18

Doha) extended the life of Kyoto Protocol (to 2020)

• Tragedy of the Commons [公地悲劇](Tragedy of the Fishers) –

• Individually rational economic decision leads to detriment of all (the commons)

• Produced at Earth Summit, 1992 (UN Conference on Environment and Development, 195 parties)-

An 1992 international treaty to consider yearly what can be done globally to reduce and to cope with global warming.

Factors contributing to GHG increase

People - population explosion, is one the rise

CO2 = P . S . E . C

CO2 = P . S . E . C

Guinea – school by streetlight

S should also be on the rise

Energy per service is falling, but not fast enough

CO2 = P . S . E . C

CO2 = P . S . E . C

If C = 0CO2 = 0

The logical approach is therefore de-carbonization

Mitigation decision points

Modified from University of Melbourne graphics

Nuclear

Ocean

Investment in R & D to achieve reduction in GHG for all decision points

Policy options to reduce GHG

• Taxes or fees– Tax base, or what is taxable (Shall we tax for sheep, cattle?)– Tax rate (e.g. Australian $23/tonne CO2e)– Use of revenue windfall

• Emissions trading scheme– Set a limited aggregate quantity of emissions and establish a market to

buy and sell emissions permits. (for EU, about 40% of emitters/polluters are under the scheme)

• Regulations– Electricity production methods; choice of products, energy efficient

buildings, restriction on use of cars; land clearing…

• Subsidies– Production methods; choice of products; R&D to reduce emission

Mitigation policy objectives

• Reduce GHG emissions, and future climate change.

• Desirable to have a simple system with low costs for government and the private sector.

• Need to consider redistribution effects of the policy interventions

– There will be some losers, many winners, and a net society gain.

Transportation Efficiency

A car that gets 30 mpg releases 1 ton of carbon into the air for every 10,000 miles of driving

Fuel efficient cars get more miles per gallon (mpg)

Increasing the fuel efficiency of cars will reduce the amount of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere

Transport Conservation

With more cars on the road, the amount of CO2 emitted steadily increases.

Reducing the time and number of cars on the road will reduce emissions.

Increasing the use of public transportation would reduce the amount of individual driving time.

Building Efficiency

Providing electricity, transportation, and heat for buildings produces high levels of CO2 emission.

Reducing heating and energy use would reduce the amount of carbon released into the atmosphere.

Insulating buildings, using alternative energy sources, and solar water heating are ways to reduce emissions.

Efficient Electricity Production

Improving coal plant efficiency will significantly reduce carbon emission. This requires alternative ways of using coal to produce electricity.

Reforestation as carbon sink

Dr Wangari Maathai , Kenya, Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Green Belt movement (1976)

Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS)

Fuel needs of a coal-fired CCS plant increase by 25 – 40%;Costs of energy production increases by 21- 91%.

Geoengineering

Giving CO2 a price is the most important

• Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes.

• Such policies could include economic instruments, government funding and regulation

• For meeting EU 2 degrees target: about 100 US$/tCO2eq carbon price needed by 2030 (current EU-ETS price ~$ 25)

• But… do not forget the co-benefits

Technology in the long term

• The range of stabilization levels can be achieved by

– deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available and

– those that are expected to be commercialised in coming decades.

• This assumes that appropriate and effective incentives are in place for development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion of technologies and for addressing related barriers

New nuclear technology

Adaptation

Adaptation

• Needed even with very stringent mitigation

• Limits to adaptation: – Certain risks can not be reduced– More serious impacts go beyond adaptive capacity

• Main areas:– Water– Agriculture– Infrastructure– Health– Tourism– Energy

• Adaptation and mitigation are complementary

• Costs hardly known

Floating house in Netherlands

In 《沈沒的國度》Kiribati President Anote Tong said, ”It would certainly be a sad thing if ever there was a nation

disappeared. We certainly do not want to be a lost nation.”.

A source of water in Kiribati

Examples of Adaptation in Africa• Egypt

– Sea-level rise : Adoption of National Climate Change Action Plan integrating climate change concerns into national policies; adoption of Law 4/94 requiring Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for project approval and regulating setback distances for coastal infrastructure; installation of hard structures in areas vulnerable to coastal erosion.

• Sudan – Drought : Expanded use of traditional rainwater harvesting and

water conserving techniques; building of shelter-belts and wind-breaks to improve resilience of rangelands; monitoring of the number of grazing animals and cut trees; set-up of revolving credit funds.

• Botswana – Drought : National government programmes to re-create

employment options after drought; capacity building of local authorities; assistance to small subsistence farmers to increase crop production.

Adaptation in Asia & Oceania• Bangladesh :

– Sea-level rise; salt-water intrusion: Consideration of climate change in the National Water Management Plan; building of flow regulators in coastal embankments; use of alternative crops and low-technology water filters.

• Philippines – Drought; floods : Adjustment of silvicultural treatment schedules to suit

climate variations; shift to drought-resistant crops; use of shallow tube wells; rotation method of irrigation during water shortage; construction of water impounding basins; construction of fire lines and controlled burning; adoption of soil and water conservation measures for upland farming.

– Sea-level rise; storm surges :Capacity building for shoreline defence system design; introduction of participatory risk assessment; provision of grants to strengthen coastal resilience and rehabilitation of infrastructures; construction of cyclone-resistant housing units; retrofit of buildings to improved hazard standards; review of building codes; reforestation of mangroves.

– Drought; salt-water intrusion :Rainwater harvesting; leakage reduction; hydroponic farming; bank loans allowing for purchase of rainwater storage tanks.

Adaptation in Americas• Canada

– (1) Permafrost melt; change in ice cover: Changes in livelihood practices by the Inuit, including: change of hunt locations; diversification of hunted species; use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS) technology; encouragement of food sharing.

– (2) Extreme temperatures: Implementation of heat health alert plans in Toronto, which include measures such as: opening of designated cooling centres at public locations; information to the public through local media; distribution of bottled water through the Red Cross to vulnerable people; operation of a heat information line to answer heat-related questions; availability of an emergency medical service vehicle with specially trained staff and medical equipment.

• United States – Sea-level rise : Land acquisition programmes taking account of climate change (e.g., New

Jersey Coastal Blue Acres land acquisition programme to acquire coastal lands damaged/prone to damages by storms or buffering other lands; the acquired lands are being used for recreation and conservation); establishment of a ‘rolling easement’ in Texas, an entitlement to public ownership of property that ‘rolls’ inland with the coastline as sea-level rises; other coastal policies that encourage coastal landowners to act in ways that anticipate sea-level rise.

• Mexico and Argentina – Drought: Adjustment of planting dates and crop variety (e.g., inclusion of drought-resistant

plants such as agave and aloe); accumulation of commodity stocks as economic reserve; spatially separated plots for cropping and grazing to diversify exposures; diversification of income by adding livestock operations; set-up/provision of crop insurance; creation of local financial pools (as alternative to commercial crop insurance).

Adaptation in Europe• The Netherlands,

– Sea-level rise : Adoption of Flooding Defence Act and Coastal Defence Policy as precautionary approaches allowing for the incorporation of emerging trends in climate; building of a storm surge barrier taking a 50 cm sea-level rise into account; use of sand supplements added to coastal areas; improved management of water levels through dredging, widening of river banks, allowing rivers to expand into side channels and wetland areas; deployment of water storage and retention areas; conduct of regular (every 5 years) reviews of safety characteristics of all protecting infrastructure (dykes, etc.); preparation of risk assessments of flooding and coastal damage influencing spatial planning and engineering projects in the coastal zone, identifying areas for potential (land inward) reinforcement of dunes.

• Austria, France, Switzerland – Upward shift of natural snow-reliability line; glacier melt : Artificial snow-making; grooming of

ski slopes; moving ski areas to higher altitudes and glaciers; use of white plastic sheets as protection against glacier melt; diversification of tourism revenues (e.g., all-year tourism).

– Permafrost melt; debris flows: Erection of protection dams in Pontresina (Switzerland) against avalanches and increased magnitude of potential debris flows stemming from permafrost thawing.

• United Kingdom – Floods; sea-level rise: Coastal realignment under the Essex Wildlife Trust, converting over 84

ha of arable farmland into salt marsh and grassland to provide sustainable sea defences; maintenance and operation of the Thames Barrier through the Thames Estuary 2100 project that addresses flooding linked to the impacts of climate change; provision of guidance to policy makers, chief executives, and parliament on climate change and the insurance sector (developed by the Association of British Insurers).

Adaptation strategies

• Prepare for future scenarios (proactive):– Flood defence

– Refugee support

– City planning

– Stockpiling vaccines

• Through:– Technological

– Administrative

– behavioral

Ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation

• Healthy, well-functioning ecosystems enhance natural resilience to the adverse impacts of climate change and reduce vulnerability of people;

• “Green infrastructure” as opposed to “grey”• Integrated management of land, water and living resources that

promotes conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way. • Address the crucial links between climate change, biodiversity,

ecosystem services and sustainable resource management.• Use ecosystems (wetlands, marshes, grasslands) to protect against

climate change impacts.• Benefits:

– Achieve multiple objectives: sink carbon, protect against flooding purify water, enhance aesthetics, provide recreational opportunities

2008 Paper

Proposal - HK to reduce GHG emission by 20-30% in 2020

• Maximizing energy efficiency:– Building energy code (Building Energy Efficiency

Ordinance, 2012, for new buildings);– District cooling system (Kai Tak);– Energy efficiency standard for electrical appliances;

• Greening road transport:– MTR, EV, alternative fuel (biofuel), clean fuels;

• Turning waste to energy:– Landfill gas, incineration with energy recovery, biogas

from organic waste;

• Revamping fuel mix for electricity generation:– retiring coal-fired power plant, low carbon fuels,

renewable energy, nuclear energy.

HK adaptation options

• Monitoring: – Guidelines for development in response to extreme

temperature, – water management in response to drought,– warnings and prevention projects for flood,– guidance on building design for high winds/gusts,– strengthening of public health system to prevent communicable

diseases.

• Government’s role is also to provide support for private sector in making adaptation decisions:– Provide information on the form and magnitude of climate

change, decision choice options, and their pros and cons;– Regulatory structure which allows flexibility for households and

firms to change decisions in response to climate change– Coordination of decision changes which require the

participation of many private sector players.

HK adaptation options (cont.)

• Institutional strengthening and capacity building;

• Disaster management and emergency planning;

• Adjust public funding in R & D;

• Conservation of ecosystems and biodiversity;

• Education and public awareness.

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What can we do as individuals ?

Lord, what fools these mortals be!Shakespeare, 1596

Man did not weave the web of life – he is merely a strand in it. Whatever he does to the web, he does to himself.

Chief Seattle, 1854

Epilogue