mobile internet, broadband & data services

Mobile Internet, Broadband & Data Services Indonesian Telecom Market Facts and Numbers: Charts & Tables 2007-2009 [HR.CTD011.V1U1-2009] Dr.-Ing. Eueung Mulyana @ Harewos Research 11/21/2009 http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos

2

Mobile Internet, Broadband & Data Services

Harewos.Research http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos

Contents

List of Figures & Tables ........................................................................................................ 3

Subscriber Model ................................................................................................................... 5

Subscriber Base ..................................................................................................................... 6

Market Share ......................................................................................................................... 9

Growth ................................................................................................................................. 13

Telkomsel ............................................................................................................................. 16

Indosat ................................................................................................................................. 20

Excelcomindo ....................................................................................................................... 24

Abbreviations & Notes ........................................................................................................ 28

3



List of Figures & Tables

Figure 1 A Model for Mobile Data/Internet Subscribers Adressed in this Document ....... 5 Figure 2 Mobile Internet – Intensive (MI-I) Subscribers 2007-2009 .................................. 6 Figure 3 Mobile Internet (MI) Subscribers 2007-2009 ........................................................ 7 Figure 4 Mobile Data (MD) Subscribers 2007-2009 ............................................................ 8 Figure 5 Market Share of MI-I Subscribers 2009 ................................................................ 9 Figure 6 Market Shares of MI-I Subscribers 2007-2009 (Four Major Operators) ........... 10 Figure 7 Market Share of MI Subscribers 2009 ................................................................ 11 Figure 8 Market Shares of MI Subscribers 2007-2009 (Four Major Operators) .............. 12

Table 1 MI-I Subscribers of Each Operator (Operators’ Publication & Estimates) ........... 6 Table 2 MI Subscribers of Each Operator (Operators’ Publication & Estimates) ............. 7 Table 3 MD Subscribers of Each Operator (Operators’ Publication & Estimates) ............ 8 Table 4 Market Shares of MI-I Subscribers 2007-2009 ....................................................... 9 Table 5 Market Shares of MI Subscribers 2007-2009 ....................................................... 11

4



Figure Table 1 Growth of MI-I Subscribers ....................................................................... 13 Figure Table 2 Growth of MI-I Subscribers (AGR & CAGR) ............................................ 13 Figure Table 3 Growth of MI Subscribers .......................................................................... 14 Figure Table 4 Growth of MI Subscribers (AGR & CAGR) ............................................... 14 Figure Table 5 Growth of MD Subscribers ........................................................................ 15 Figure Table 6 Growth of MD Subscribers (AGR & CAGR) ............................................. 15 Figure Table 7 TSEL’s Mobile Internet & Data Subscribers 2007-2009 .......................... 16 Figure Table 8 TSEL’s MI-I Subscribers 2007-2009 ......................................................... 17 Figure Table 9 TSEL’s MI-I Subscriber Growth (AGR & CAGR) ..................................... 17 Figure Table 10 TSEL’s MI Subscribers 2007-2009 .......................................................... 18 Figure Table 11 TSEL’s MI Subscriber Growth (AGR & CAGR) ..................................... 18 Figure Table 12 TSEL’s MD Subscribers 2007-2009 ......................................................... 19 Figure Table 13 TSEL’s MD Subscriber Growth (AGR & CAGR) .................................... 19 Figure Table 14 ISAT’s Mobile Internet & Data Subscribers 2007-2009 ......................... 20 Figure Table 15 ISAT’s MI-I Subscribers 2007-2009 ........................................................ 21 Figure Table 16 ISAT’s MI-I Subscriber Growth (AGR & CAGR) .................................... 21 Figure Table 17 ISAT’s MI Subscribers 2007-2009 ........................................................... 22 Figure Table 18 ISAT’s MI Subscriber Growth (AGR & CAGR) ...................................... 22 Figure Table 19 ISAT’s MD Subscribers 2007-2009 .......................................................... 23 Figure Table 20 ISAT’s MD Subscriber Growth (AGR & CAGR) ..................................... 23 Figure Table 21 XL’s Mobile Internet & Data Subscribers 2007-2009 ............................ 24 Figure Table 22 XL’s MI-I Subscribers 2007-2009 ............................................................ 25 Figure Table 23 XL’s MI-I Subscriber Growth (AGR & CAGR) ....................................... 25 Figure Table 24 XL’s MI Subscribers 2007-2009 ............................................................... 26 Figure Table 25 XL’s MI Subscriber Growth (AGR & CAGR) .......................................... 26 Figure Table 26 XL’s MD Subscribers 2007-2009 ............................................................. 27 Figure Table 27 XL’s MD Subscriber Growth (AGR & CAGR) ......................................... 27

Harewhttp://

Figur

wos.Resear/www.ligar

re 1 A Mo

rch rvirtual.com

odel for M

m/harewos

Mobile DaD

M

In

MoInt

Mobil

Su

ata/InternDocumen

Mobile Dat(MD)

Mobile nternet (M

obile Interntensive (MI

Mobile Broadband

(MBB)

le Internet

ubsc

net Subscnt

ta

MI)

net -I-I)

d

, Broadban

criber

cribers Ad

nd & Data S

r Mo

dressed i

5

Services

odel

n this

Harewhttp://

Fi

TSEL ISAT XL M8 Smart HCPT NTS TLKM FWISAT FW

Tab


igure 2 M

WA WA

le 1 MI-I

500,

1,000,

1,500,

2,000,0

2,500,0

3,000,0

3,500,0

4,000,0

4,500,0

#

rch rvirtual.com

Mobile Int

23612

1

4

Subscrib

0

,000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

200

#Subs

m/harewos

ternet – In

2007E 5,000 2,000 7,500 2,202

1,490

4,650

bers of EaE

07E20

scriber

Mobil

S

ntensive

ach OperaEstimates

008E20

rs 2007

le Internet

Subs

(MI-I) Su

2008E 205,000 305,000 88,000 20,000 8,558 25,160 18,083 71,139 10,000

ator (Opes)

009Nov

7-2009

, Broadban

scrib

ubscriber

erators’ P

(MI-I)

ISATLNTHCSmM8XLISATS

nd & Data S

er B

rs 2007-20

2009No1,400,00980,000500,00080,000 200,000173,031142,217700,000120,000

Publicatio

)

AT FWALKM FWATSCPTmart8LAT

SEL

6

Services

ase

009

ov 00 0 0

0 1 7 0 0

on &

Harewhttp://


Tab


Figu

WA WA

ble 2 MI S

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000,

12,000,

rch rvirtual.com

ure 3 Mob

21,370448

5

91

Subscribe

0

0,000

0,000

0,000

,000

,000

000

20

#Sub

m/harewos

bile Inter

2007E 368,290 01,298 41,971 6,080 0

8,269 0

0,898 7,941

ers of EacE

007E20

scribe

Mobil

rnet (MI)

ch OperaEstimates

008E20

ers 200

le Internet

Subscrib

2008E 2,612,000 1,460,410 1,040,621 106,876 61,233 180,024 129,392 254,509 30,464

ator (Opers)

009Nov

07-2009

, Broadban

bers 2007-

rators’ Pu

9 (MI)


nd & Data S

-2009

2009No5,333,331,933,331,800,00213,333133,333486,667400,000496,66740,000

ublicatio


SEL

7

Services

ov 33 33 00 3 3 7 0 7

on &

Harewhttp://


Tab


Fig

WA WA

ble 3 MD S

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000,

35,000,

rch rvirtual.com

gure 4 Mo

29,54,93,060

40

6312

Subscrib

0

0,000

0,000

0,000

,000

,000

,000

000

20

#Subs

m/harewos

obile Dat

2007E 578,028 909,084 093,800 02,560

07,881

36,284 25,587

ers of EaE

007E20

scribe

Mobil

a (MD) Su

1

ach OperaEstimates

008E20

rs 200

le Internet

ubscribe

2008E 13,059,9987,302,049 5,203,103 534,380 306,165 900,122 646,960 1,272,543 152,318

ator (Opes)

009Nov

7-2009

, Broadban

rs 2007-2

erators’ P

9 (MD)


nd & Data S

009

2009No16,000,005,800,005,400,00640,000400,0001,460,001,200,001,490,00120,000

Publicatio

)


SEL

8

Services

ov 00 00 00 0 0 00 00 00 0

on &

Harewhttp://



Fi

WA WA

Tabl

HCP4%

N3

rch rvirtual.com

igure 5 M

2251

le 4 Mark

M82%

Smart5%

PT%

NTS3%

TL

Mar

m/harewos

Market Sh

2007E 28.49 50.47 14.25 1.79 0.00 1.21 0.00 3.79 0.00

ket Share

XL12%

LKM FWA16%

IS

rket Sh

Mobil

hare of MI

s of MI-I

SAT FWA3%

hare 2

le Internet

M

I-I Subsc

2008E 27.30 40.62 11.72 2.66 1.14 3.35 2.41 9.47 1.33

Subscrib

T3

ISAT23%

2009 (M

, Broadban

arke

cribers 20

bers 2007-

TSEL32%

MI-I)

nd & Data S

et Sha

009

2009No32.59 22.82 11.64 1.86 4.66 4.03 3.31 16.30 2.79

-2009

9

Services

are

ov

Harewhttp://

Fig


gure 6 Ma

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00P

erce

ntag

eM

rch rvirtual.com

arket Sha

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2007

Market

m/harewos

ares of MO

7E 2

t Shar

Mobil

MI-I SubscOperators

2008E

res 200

le Internet

cribers 20s)

2009Nov

07-2009

, Broadban

007-2009 (

9 (MI-I

TSISXLTL

nd & Data S

(Four Ma

I)

SELAT

LLKM FWA

10

Services

ajor

Harewhttp://



F

WA WA

Tab

Sm

rch rvirtual.com

Figure 7 M

2421

ble 5 Mark

XL17%

M82%

mart1%

HCPT4%

T

Ma

m/harewos

Market Sh

2007E 49.49 25.37 15.99 3.11 0.00 2.11 0.00 3.29 0.65

ket Share

ISAT18%

TNTS4%

TLKM FWA5%

arket S

Mobil

hare of M

es of MI S

ISAT FWA0%

Share 2

le Internet

MI Subscr

2008E 44.46 24.86 17.71 1.82 1.04 3.06 2.20 4.33 0.52

Subscribe

2009 (M

, Broadban

ribers 200

ers 2007-2

TSEL49%

MI)

nd & Data S

09

2009No49.22 17.84 16.61 1.97 1.23 4.49 3.69 4.58 0.37

2009

11

Services

ov

Harewhttp://

Fi


igure 8 M

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00P

erce

ntag

eM

rch rvirtual.com

Market Sh

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2007

Marke

m/harewos

hares of MO

7E 2

et Sha

Mobil

MI SubscrOperators

2008E

res 20

le Internet

ribers 200s)

2009Nov

07-200

, Broadban

07-2009 (F

09 (MI)

TSISXLTL

nd & Data S

Four Maj

)

SELAT

LLKM FWA

12

Services

jor

Harewhttp://


Figure

11223,3,4,4,

#Su

A

4

4

4

4

4

4

5

5

5

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

Figure T

Table 2 G

0500,000

1,000,0001,500,000,000,000,500,000,000,000,500,000000,000500,000

ubs. 1

#

AGRCAGR

440.0

450.0

460.0

470.0

480.0

490.0

500.0

510.0

520.0

#

m/harewos

Table 1 G

Growth o

2007

200722,843

#Subsc

4

2008511.511.

#Subsc

Mobil

Growth of

f MI-I Su

2008

200750,9

criber

490%

833

cribers

le Internet

f MI-I Sub

ubscribers

82

08939

s - MI-

s - MI-

, Broadban

G

bscribers

s (AGR &

2009

20094,273,91

-I

2009469.1489.8

-I

nd & Data S

Grow

& CAGR)

6

13

Services

wth

Harewhttp://


Figure

2

4

6,

8,

10,0

12,0

#Sub

A

1

1

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

Figure

e Table 4

0

2,000,000

,000,000

,000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

2bs. 2,7

AGRCAGR

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

m/harewos

Table 3 G

Growth o

2007

2007764,746

#Subs

2008112.112.

#Subs

Mobil

Growth o

of MI Sub

2008

2005,875

scriber

98%

855

scriber

le Internet

f MI Subs

bscribers

8

085,528

rs - MI

rs - MI

, Broadban

scribers

(AGR &

2009

200910,836,6

I

200984.498.0

I

nd & Data S

CAGR)

667

14

Services

Harewhttp://


Figure

5

10

15,

20,

25,

30,0

35,0

#Sub

A

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

Figure T

Table 6 G

0

5,000,000

,000,000

,000,000

,000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

2bs. 19,3

#

AGRCAGR

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

#

m/harewos

Table 5 G

Growth o

2007

2007353,225

#Subs

200851.851.8

#Subsc

Mobil

Growth of

of MD Sub

2008

20029,377

criber

30%

888

criber

le Internet

f MD Sub

bscribers

8

087,638

rs - MD

rs - MD

, Broadban

bscribers

s (AGR &

2009

200932,510,0

D

200910.729.6

D

nd & Data S

CAGR)

000

15

Services

Harewhttp://

Figu


ure Table

2,04,06,08,0

10,012,014,0016,00

MBB/MIMIMD

rch rvirtual.com

e 7 TSEL’

0000,000000,000000,000000,000000,00000,00000,00000,000

2I-I 3

1,39,5

#S

m/harewos

’s Mobile

2007E

2007E5,000

368,290578,028

Subsc

Mobil

Internet

2008

2020

2,6113,0

ribers

le Internet

t & Data S

E2

008E5,00012,000

059,998

s - TSE

, Broadban

Tel

Subscribe

2009Nov

20091,405,33

16,00

EL

nd & Data S

lkom

ers 2007-2

9Nov0,0003,333

00,000

16

Services

msel

2009

Harewhttp://

F


Fig

Figure Ta

2

4

6

8

1,0

1,2

1,40

#Sub

A

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

gure Tabl

able 9 TS

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

000,000

00,000

00,000

2bs. 35

#Sub

AGRCAGR

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

#Sub

m/harewos

le 8 TSEL

EL’s MI-I

2007

20075,000

bscrib

2008485.485.

bscribe

Mobil

L’s MI-I S

I Subscri

2008

200205,

bers - T

532%

877

ers - T

le Internet

ubscribe

ber Grow

2

08000

TSEL(M

TSEL (M

, Broadban

rs 2007-2

wth (AGR

2009

20091,400,00

MI-I)

2009582.9532.5

MI-I)

nd & Data S

009

R & CAGR

00

17

Services

R)

Harewhttp://

F


Fig

Figure Ta

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,00

#Sub

A

1

1

1

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

gure Tabl

able 11 T

0

000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

00,000

00,000

2bs. 1,3

#Su

AGRCAGR

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

#Su

m/harewos

le 10 TSE

SEL’s MI

2007

2007368,290

ubscrib

200890.990.9

bscrib

Mobil

EL’s MI Su

I Subscrib

2008

2002,612

bers - T

97%

899

bers - T

le Internet

ubscriber

ber Grow

2

082,000

TSEL

TSEL

, Broadban

rs 2007-2

wth (AGR

2009

20095,333,33

(MI)

2009104.297.4

(MI)

nd & Data S

009

& CAGR

33

18

Services

R)

Harewhttp://

F


Fig

Figure Ta

2

4

6

8,

10,

12,

14,0

16,0

#Sub

A

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

gure Tabl

able 13 TS

0

2,000,000

,000,000

,000,000

,000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

2bs. 9,5

#Sub

AGRCAGR

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

#Sub

m/harewos

le 12 TSE

SEL’s MD

2007

2007578,028

bscrib

2

200836.436.4

bscrib

Mobil

L’s MD S

D Subscri

2008

20013,059

bers - T

29%

844

bers - T

le Internet

Subscribe

iber Grow

8

089,998

TSEL (

TSEL (

, Broadban

ers 2007-2

wth (AGR

2009

200916,000,0

(MD)

200922.529.2

(MD)

nd & Data S

2009

R & CAGR

000

19

Services

R)

Harewhttp://

Figu


ure Table

1,002,003,004,005,006,007,008,000

MBB/MIMIMD

rch rvirtual.com

e 14 ISAT

000,00000,00000,00000,00000,00000,0000,0000,000

2I-I 6

704,9

#

m/harewos

’s Mobile

2007E

2007E62,00001,298909,084

#Subsc

Mobil

e Internet

2008E

2030

1,467,30

cribers

le Internet

t & Data S

E2

008E5,00060,41002,049

s - ISA

, Broadban

I

Subscrib

2009Nov

2009980

1,935,80

AT

nd & Data S

Indo

ers 2007-

9Nov0,0003,3330,000

20

Services

osat

-2009

Harewhttp://

F


Fig

Figure Ta

234567890

1,00

#Sub

A

11223344

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

gure Tabl

able 16 IS

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,00000,00000,00000,000

2bs. 62

#Sub

AGRCAGR

0.050.0

100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0450.0

#Sub

m/harewos

le 15 ISAT

SAT’s MI-I

2007

20072,000

bscrib

2008391.9391.9

bscrib

Mobil

T’s MI-I S

I Subscri

2008

200305,

bers - I

298%

899

ers - I

le Internet

Subscribe

iber Grow

2

08000

SAT (M

SAT (M

, Broadban

ers 2007-2

wth (AGR

2009

2009980,00

MI-I)

2009221.3297.6

MI-I)

nd & Data S

2009

R & CAGR

0

21

Services

R)

Harewhttp://


Fig

Figure T

2468

1,01,21,41,61,802,00

#Sub

A

1

1

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

gure Tab

able 18 IS

0200,000400,000600,000800,000000,000200,000400,00000,00000,00000,000

2bs. 70

#Su

AGRCAGR

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

#Su

m/harewos

ble 17 ISA

SAT’s MI

2007

200701,298

ubscrib

6

2008108.2108.2

ubscrib

Mobil

AT’s MI Su

Subscrib

2008

2001,460

bers - I

66%

822

bers - I

le Internet

ubscriber

ber Grow

2

080,410

ISAT (

ISAT (

, Broadban

rs 2007-20

wth (AGR

2009

20091,933,33

(MI)

200932.466.0

(MI)

nd & Data S

009

& CAGR

33

22

Services

)

Harewhttp://

F


Fig

Figure Ta

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,00

#Sub

A

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

gure Tabl

able 20 IS

0

000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

00,000

00,000

2bs. 4,9

#Su

AGRCAGR

-30.0-20.0-10.0

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.0

#Sub

m/harewos

le 19 ISAT

SAT’s MD

2007

2007909,084

bscrib

200848.748.7

bscrib

Mobil

T’s MD Su

D Subscrib

2008

2007,302

bers - I

9%

877

bers - I

le Internet

ubscribe

ber Grow

2

082,049

ISAT (

ISAT (

, Broadban

rs 2007-2

wth (AGR

2009

20095,800,00

(MD)

2009-20.68.7

MD)

nd & Data S

009

R & CAGR

00

23

Services

R)

Harewhttp://

Fig


gure Tabl

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,000

MBB/MIMIMD

rch rvirtual.com

le 21 XL’s

000,000

00,000

00,000

00,000

0,000

0,000

2I-I 1

443,0

m/harewos

s Mobile I

2007E

2007E7,500

41,971093,800

#Subs

Mobil

Internet &

2008E

2088

1,045,20

scriber

le Internet

Ex

& Data S

E2

008E8,00040,62103,103

rs - XL

, Broadban

xcelc

ubscribe

2009Nov

2009500

1,805,40

L

nd & Data S

omin

ers 2007-2

9Nov0,0000,0000,000

24

Services

ndo

2009

Harewhttp://


Fi

Figure T

51015202530350400450500

#Sub

A

3

3

4

4

4

4

4

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

igure Tab

Table 23 X

050,00000,00050,00000,00050,0000,0000,0000,0000,0000,000

2bs. 1

#Su

AGRCAGR

360.0

380.0

400.0

420.0

440.0

460.0

480.0

#Su

m/harewos

ble 22 XL’

XL’s MI-I

2007

20077,500

ubscri

2008402.9402.9

ubscrib

Mobil

’s MI-I Su

Subscrib

2008

20088,0

bers -

435%

899

bers -

le Internet

ubscriber

ber Growt

2

08000

XL (M

XL (M

, Broadban

rs 2007-20

th (AGR &

2009

2009500,00

MI-I)

2009468.2434.5

MI-I)

nd & Data S

009

& CAGR)

0

25

Services

)

Harewhttp://


F

Figure T

24

6

8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,80

#Sub

A

1

1

1

1

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

Figure Ta

Table 25 X

0200,000400,000

600,000

800,000

000,000

200,000

00,000

00,000

00,000

2bs. 44

#S

AGRCAGR

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

#S

m/harewos

ble 24 XL

XL’s MI S

2007

200741,971

Subscr

2008135.4135.4

ubscr

Mobil

L’s MI Sub

Subscribe

2008

2001,040

ibers -

102%

844

ibers -

le Internet

bscribers

er Growt

2

080,621

- XL (M

%

- XL (M

, Broadban

s 2007-200

h (AGR &

2009

20091,800,00

MI)

200973.0101.8

MI)

nd & Data S

09

& CAGR)

00

26

Services

Harewhttp://


Fi

Figure T

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,00

#Sub

A

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

igure Tab

Table 27 X

0

000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

00,000

00,000

2bs. 3,0

#Su

AGRCAGR

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

#Su

m/harewos

ble 26 XL

XL’s MD S

2007

2007093,800

ubscri

32

200868.268.2

ubscri

Mobil

L’s MD Su

Subscrib

2008

2005,203

ibers -

2%

822

ibers -

le Internet

ubscribers

er Growt

2

083,103

- XL (M

XL (M

, Broadban

s 2007-20

th (AGR &

2009

20095,400,00

MD)

20093.8

32.1

MD)

nd & Data S

09

& CAGR)

00

27

Services

28



Abbreviations & Notes

AGR Annual Growth Rate

CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate

2008E End of 2008

2009Nov As of November 2009

MI Mobile Internet i.e. Internet access via cellular & FWA networks

MI-I Mobile Internet - Intensive

MBB Mobile Broadband

MD Mobile Data

FWA Fixed Wireless Access

TSEL

PT. Telekomunikasi Selular (PT. Telkomsel)

TLKM

PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia (PT. Telkom)

ISAT

PT. Indosat

XL

PT. Excelcomindo Pratama (XL Axiata)

NTS

PT. Natrindo Telepon Selular

Smart

PT. Smart Telecom

HCPT

PT. Hutchison CP Telecommunication

M-8

PT. Mobile-8

mobile internet, broadband & data services

Data & Analytics