Market Value Analysis (MVA): St. Louis, MODRAFT FinalDecember, 2013

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The Reinvestment Fund builds wealth and opportunity for low-wealth communities and low and moderate income individuals

through the promotion of socially and environmentally responsible development.

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Profile of TRF

In general

The Market Value Analysis (MVA) is a tool designed to assist the private market and government officials to identify and comprehend the various elements of local real estate markets. It is based fundamentally on local administrative data sources.

By using an MVA, public sector officials and private market actors can more precisely craft intervention strategies in weak markets and support sustainable growth in stronger market segments.

Who is using the MVA?

• Philadelphia, PA• Wilmington, DE• Washington, DC• Baltimore, MD• San Antonio, TX• Camden, NJ• Newark, NJ (and 8 regions

across the state)

• Detroit, MI• Houston, TX• Reading Area, PA• New Orleans, LA • Milwaukee, WI• Pittsburgh, PA• Burlington County (NJ)

“Riverline Towns” (in process)

TRF has done this work under contract to cities, states and foundations in locations including:

Our Normative Assumptions when Analyzing Markets:• Public subsidy is scarce and it alone cannot create a market;• Public subsidy must be used to leverage, or clear the path, for

private investment;• In distressed markets, invest into strength (e.g., major

institution of place, transportation hub, environmental amenities) – “Build from Strength”;

• All parts of a city are customers of the services and resources that it has to offer;- Government action is tailored to the market conditions;

• Decisions to invest and/or deploy governmental programs must be based on objectively gathered data and sound quantitative and qualitative analysis.

TRF MVA Process

• Acquire local data and geocode to block groups.• Inspect and validate data layers.• Conduct a statistical cluster analysis. • Identify areas that share common characteristics.• Map the result.• Inspect areas of the City for conformity with the

statistical/spatial representation.• Re-solve and re-inspect until the MVA accurately represents

areas.

Preparing the MVA

• Median sales price 2010-2012 • Coefficient of variance for sales price 2010-2012• Foreclosure sales as a % of residential sales 2010-2012• Nonresidential Land Area as a % of total land area, 2013• Owner-occupied units as a % of all occupied housing units, 2010• Vacant housing units as a % of all housing units, 2010• Subsidized rental stock as a % of all rental units, 2013 • New construction permits as a % of all housing units 2010-2013• Vacant residential land as a % of residential land area, 2013• Bank and investor sales as a % of residential sales, 2010-2012

Components of the St. Louis MVA

Median Sale Price 2010-2012

Variance in Sale Price 2010-2012

Foreclosures as a Percent of Sales, 2010-2012

Foreclosures, 2010-2012

Nonresidential Land, 2013

Owner Occupied Units, 2010

Vacant Housing Units, 2010

Subsidized Rental Housing, 2013

New Construction Permits, 2010-2013

Vacant Residential Land, 2012

Bank and Investor Sales, 2010-2012

MVA Analysis 2013

Validation Route

Count of Sales, 2010-2012

Subsidized Rental Housing- Project Based, 2010-2012

MVA Characteristics

Cluster # BG

Median Sales Price 2010-2012

Variance Sales Price 2010-2012

Foreclosure 2010 - 2012

by Sales

% Bank & Investor Sales,

2010-2012% Nonresidential,

2013

% Owner Occupied,

2010

% Vacant Housing Units,

2010

% Subsidized Rental Housing,

2013

Permits as a % of Housing

Units, 2010-2013

% Vacant Residential Land, 2013

A 31 $205,311 0.55 13.08% 6.74% 25.83% 44.95% 12.96% 1.58% 8.58% 4.77%B 26 $147,016 0.56 31.21% 9.26% 68.80% 29.48% 15.16% 13.68% 12.18% 12.80%C 46 $122,314 0.44 20.69% 14.40% 10.55% 66.99% 9.15% 1.24% 3.57% 1.50%D 53 $82,614 0.60 30.01% 19.07% 31.59% 54.03% 15.49% 4.21% 5.92% 7.59%E 46 $48,766 0.74 34.99% 27.54% 25.90% 46.87% 18.16% 5.91% 3.03% 4.28%F 51 $27,940 0.92 40.84% 28.40% 19.13% 43.00% 23.96% 10.44% 2.23% 12.28%G 11 $21,578 1.04 38.77% 27.04% 81.72% 47.92% 22.07% 15.63% 7.35% 16.26%H 38 $14,053 1.08 35.96% 34.58% 18.29% 49.51% 27.17% 9.73% 2.21% 18.48%I 40 $8,036 1.27 33.55% 38.21% 33.30% 42.95% 32.14% 15.47% 3.15% 35.00%

Not Classified, Estimated,

or Split 18 NULL NULL NULL NULL NULL NULL NULL NULL NULL NULLStudy Area 360 $72,006 0.78 31.33% 23.82% 30.45% 46.85% 19.58% 8.40% 4.75% 12.51%

Census Characteristics

MVA ClusterNumber Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

A 16,273 11.5% 6,891 10.7% 9,382 12.1% 18,764 10.7% 30,165 9.4%B 15,975 11.2% 4,361 6.8% 11,614 15.0% 19,058 10.8% 30,118 9.4%C 21,066 14.8% 13,883 21.5% 7,183 9.3% 23,243 13.2% 43,172 13.5%D 22,995 16.2% 12,223 19.0% 10,772 13.9% 27,925 15.9% 47,479 14.9%E 17,187 12.1% 7,977 12.4% 9,210 11.9% 21,005 11.9% 41,360 13.0%F 16,757 11.8% 7,031 10.9% 9,726 12.5% 22,077 12.5% 42,571 13.3%G 3,404 2.4% 1,705 2.6% 1,699 2.2% 4,355 2.5% 8,883 2.8%H 10,948 7.7% 5,304 8.2% 5,644 7.3% 15,138 8.6% 29,252 9.2%I 11,591 8.2% 4,774 7.4% 6,817 8.8% 17,019 9.7% 30,910 9.7%

Not Classified, Estimated, or

Split 5,861 4.1% 276 0.4% 5,585 7.2% 7,418 4.2% 15,384 4.8%Study Area

Total 142,057 64,425 77,632 176,002 319,294

Households Owner Occupied Renter Occupied Housing Units Population

Variable Descriptions (Metadata)Field Name Variable Name Field Description

mSP1012_CI Median residential home sales price between 2010 and 2012The median residential home sales price between 2010 and 2012, values under $1,000 were filtered out as non arms length transactions

vSP1012_CI Coefficient of variance for sales price 2010-2012Coefficient of Variance Sales Price was calculated by dividing the standard deviation of sales price within blockgroups by the average of sales price within blockgroups.

pFC1012dSP Foreclosure sales as a % of residential sales 2010-2012The Percent of Residential Foreclosures was calculated by dividing the count of residential foreclosures (cFC1012_CI) by the count of residential sales (cSP1012_CI).

pNRes12_CI Nonresidential Land Area as a % of total land area, 2013

Percent Nonresidential Land calculated from the St. Louis City Parcel Dataset. This variable was calculated by summing the area of nonresidential parcels (When ASRUSE1 >= 2000) divided by the sum of the area of all parcels (Sum (Area )).

pH2__10dHU Owner-occupied units as a % of all occupied housing units, 2010 Percent of Housing Units that are Owner Occupied in 2010, from the United States Census Bureau

pHV__10dHU Vacant housing units as a % of all housing units, 2010

Percent of Housing Units that are Vacant in 2010, calculated by taking the Count of Vacant Housing Units (cHV__10_CE) and dividing it by the Count of All Housing Units (cHU__10_CE), from the United States Census Bureau

pPH__13dRO Subsidized rental stock as a % of all rental units, 2013

Percent Subsidized Rental Housing. This column is computed by aggregating the count of housing vouchers and project-based subsidized units (sPH__13_CI) and then dividing by the count of housing units that are renter occupied (cHR__10_CE).

pPA1013dHU New construction permits as a % of all housing units 2010-Aug 2013The count of the sum of construction permits > $10,000 issued by parcel (cPA1013CI) divided by the count of total housing units (cHU__10_CE).

pVLRE12dRE Vacant residential land as a % of residential land area, 2013

Percent vacant residential land calculated from the St. Louis City Parcel Dataset. This variable was calculated by summing the area of residential, vacant land (When ASRUSE1 like '1010') divided by the sum of the area of all residential land ( When ASRUSE1 < 2000).

pBI1012dSP Bank and investor sales as a % of residential sales, 2010-2012Percent bank and investor sales, calculated from the St. Louis City Sales Dataset. This variable was calculated by taking the count of bank and investor sales (cSPBI1012_) and dividing by the count of total sales cSP1012_CI.

cSP1012_CI The count of sales 2010-2012

The count of sales 2010-2012, values under $1,000 were filtered out as non arms length transactions. (When OwnerCode in (0,1) and SaleType In (10,11,12,13,22,40,43,48,51,53,54,70,71,80,90) where SalePriceRevised > 1000).

cFC1012_CI The count of residential foreclosures, 2010-2012The count of residential foreclosures, 2010-2012, from the City of St. Louis Sales dataset. (Where SaleType in (70,71))

cHU__10_CE Count of housing units in 2010 Count of housing units in 2010, from the United States Census Bureau .cHV__10_CE Count of vacant housing units in 2010 Count of housing units that are vacant in 2010, from the United States Census Bureau

sPH__13_CI Count of Subsidized Rental Units Sum of project-based subsidized units and Section 8 housing vouchers, 2013, from the St. Louis Housing AuthoritycPA1013CI Count of New Construction Permits, 2010- August 2013 The count of the sum of construction permits > $10,000 issued by parcel.cSPBI1012_ The count of bank and investor sales, 2010-2012 The count of bank and investor sales from 2010 to 2012. (Saletype in (80,11)).

cSP_AB1012 The count of abated sales, 2010-2012

The count of sales 2010-2012 that were abated, values under $1,000 were filtered out as non arms length transactions. (When OwnerCode in (1) and SaleType In (10,11,12,13,22,40,43,48,51,53,54,70,71,80,90) where SalePriceRevised > 1000).

TRF Policy Solutions

Ira Goldstein, PresidentCatherine Califano, Associate Director

Joshua Freely, Chief Policy AnalystScott Haag, GIS Database Manager

Bill Schrecker, Research Analyst

Contact:cathy.califano@trfund.com

www.trfund.com215-574-5831