market research key trends january 2016 update
TRANSCRIPT
Market Research TrendsJanuary, 2016
• Employment is higher than
it’s been since June, 2009
and consumers confidence
is proving to be very stable.
Highlights:
• Overall Retail Sales for
2015 were very stable.
Holiday sales came in at
3.3%, excluding Auto, Fuel
and Food.
• Spending Intentions for the
next few months look
promising when looking at
the Y/Y numbers
• December Retail Sales
were moderate and on par
with the growth seen in
November.
• The economy might be showing signs of slowing, but consumers haven’t yet reacted to it and have not pulled back on spending.
• The retail sales story for the year depends heavily on the vertical. Y/Y - four are up, four are down and two are flat. The entire year was flat.
In this issue:
Next release Friday, 1/29
Next release Tuesday, 2/23
Next release Friday, 2/5
Next release Friday, 2/12
Next release Friday, 2/3 Next release Monday, 2/1
Retail Sales Trends
Oct
Nov
Dec
Oct
Nov
Dec
Oct
Nov
Dec
Retail Sales and Food Services excl Motor vehicle and parts and gas
Core retail sales growth (excluding Auto & Fuel) was very stable in 2015, ending on a slight downward trend.
Home Improvement, Building/Hardware Stores
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce & Kantar Retail
Furniture and home furnishings
Consumer Electronics Food Services & Drinking Places
2014 & 2015 Government-Reported Retail Sales by Channel, (% Chg Year-to-Year, Seasonally Adjusted)
*Includes discount department stores (mass merchandisers ex. supercenters) and conventional & national department stores.**Includes warehouse clubs, supercenters and small-format value stores (value discounters). Excludes discount department stores (Mass merchandisers)***The non-store channel includes the vast majority of online and catalog sales for all retailers. Other channels are intended by the government toonly capture brick-and-mortar sales, but may capture a small share of online or catalog sales due to how some retailers report their results.
2015: 3.9%2014: 3.9%
2015: 4.2%2014: 5.4%
2015: 5.8%2014: 3.3%
2015: -2.2%2014: 2.1%
2015: 8.1%2014: 6.2%
2014 & 2015 Government-Reported Retail Sales by Channel, (% Chg Year-to-Year, Seasonally Adjusted)
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce & Kantar Retail
Non-Store
Apparel & Accessory StoresTraditional & Discount Department Stores
Grocery Stores
Drug & Personal Care Stores Warehouse Clubs & Supercenters
*Includes discount department stores (mass merchandisers ex. supercenters) and conventional & national department stores.**Includes warehouse clubs, supercenters and small-format value stores (value discounters). Excludes discount department stores (Mass merchandisers)***The non-store channel includes the vast majority of online and catalog sales for all retailers. Other channels are intended by the government toonly capture brick-and-mortar sales, but may capture a small share of online or catalog sales due to how some retailers report their results.
2015: -1.8%2014: -2.0%
2015: 2.2%2014: 1.7%
2015: 6.2%2014: 5.7%
2015: 2.5%2014: 2.6%
2015: 4.4%2014: 6.4%
2015: 1.4% (Jan-Nov)
2014: 3.2%
Source: Kantar Retail and U.S. Department of Commerce
Government-Reported Retail Sales by Channel, (% Chg Year-to-Year)
*Includes discount department stores (mass merchandisers ex. supercenters) and conventional & national department stores.**Includes warehouse clubs, supercenters and small-format value stores (value discounters). Excludes discount department stores (Mass merchandisers)***The non-store channel includes the vast majority of online and catalog sales for all retailers. Other channels are intended by the government toonly capture brick-and-mortar sales, but may capture a small share of online or catalog sales due to how some retailers report their results.
December Retail Sales: Channel Results
• Y/Y year the next 90 days look promising when looking at All Adults 18+.
• Boomers are leading the growth M/M and Y/Y
• For the most part, Millennials are pulling back M/M and Y/Y.
Source: Prosper Insights & Analytics. Consumer Spending Score calculation: [(planning to spend more% + planning to spend the same%) / (planning to spend the same% + planning to spend less%)]*100
90 Day Spending Intentions
All Adults 18+ Gen XMillennials Boomers
January, 2015 M/M Y/Y M/M Y/Y M/M Y/Y M/M Y/Y
Lawn and garden supplies 6% 7% 0% 1% 1% 5% 15% 12%
Health and Beauty Aids 4% 4% 1% 2% 5% 4% 6% 5%
Sporting goods 1% 7% 0% 3% -6% 1% 10% 14%
Shoes 1% 2% -2% -3% 3% 3% 2% 5%Home Improvement and Hardware supplies 1% 7% -8% -2% 2% 8% 6% 13%
Groceries 0% 2% 2% 2% 0% 3% -1% 1%Decorative home furnishings (lamps-pictures-etc.) 0% 4% -2% 1% 0% 4% 3% 7%
Womens Dress clothing 0% 3% -2% -3% 0% -1% 5% 12%
Womens Casual clothing -1% 3% -5% -1% 1% 1% 2% 9%
Linens/Bedding/Draperies -2% 4% -5% -4% -2% 8% 4% 10%
Mens Dress clothing -2% 4% 0% 2% -6% -1% 3% 6%
Home furniture (chair-sofa-bed-etc.) -2% 4% -7% -3% 1% 6% 1% 8%
Beer/Wine/Alcohol -3% 4% -6% -1% -2% 7% -3% 6%
Mens Casual clothing -4% 2% -8% -2% -3% 2% 0% 4%
Going out to eat -4% 9% -8% 3% -10% 4% 3% 16%
Electronics -6% 1% -12% -10% -6% 4% 0% 7%
CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books -6% 3% -11% -7% -7% 5% 0% 8%
Childrens clothing -7% 4% -4% 4% -6% 0% -10% 3%
Candy -8% 0% -13% -2% -8% -1% -5% 1%
Toys -15% -1% -16% -8% -17% -2% -15% 5%