market pulse august2014

ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2014 1

August 2014


Dear Investors,

MARKET PULSE, the monthly from ACMIIL, aims to provide insightful perspectives on all aspects of the market, the equity, debt, derivatives, forex, commodities and money markets.

Discerning and intuitive comments from the analyst teams of each of these segments aim to enlighten our clients on the developments in these segments and their impact on the respective markets. For instance, stock picks from the equity team would help investors zero down on stocks that have attractive valuations and good earnings potential. The team’s sharp observations and opinions based on in-depth research on the debt markets provide would our clients a thorough understanding of the money markets.

Further, technical perspectives on the futures, forex, and commodities markets would assist our clients to identify the opportune moments to enter and exit the markets and help them derive benefits from a falling as well as rising market with the right research information at the right time.

MARKET PULSE aims to capture the market in all its hues and colors and provides a range of information that helps in making wise investment decisions.

Regards,Research Team ACMIIL


Contents

Equity Report

Derivative Report

Overall Outlook

Debt Market Report

Commodity Report

Currency Report

5

8

4

10

11

15

Technical View 7

Retail Research Call Performance Report 22

23

Equity SIP Performance Report

16

19

August 2014

Mutual Fund Performance Report

Event Calendar


OVERALL OUTLOOK

Market outlook for August - Fresh rebalancing of sectors on cards

July was another eventful month with the major event of the maiden Union budget being the focus of attention as post the landslide victory of the NDA Govt ,expectations were running high.Besides the corporate results were a mixed pack and some sectors like capital goods and banks which had run up quite a bit showed some sharp profit-taking .The FMCG pack was the surprise element which threw up some positive surprises and cues of where money could flow in the near term .IT was again a mixed pack though preference was seen at lower levels keeping an eye on the gradual weakening of the rupee.

The month of August begins with some global tremors with the ongoing Gaza crisis not showing any signs of abating .Besides some negative news of default from Argentina spooked global markets .

Another major cause of concern was the poor rainfall seen in the month of June which however was largely made up in the month of July .However ,by and large worries will remain as the stubborn inflation refuses to ease which could pave the way for some much expected rate cut from RBI which incidentally is meeting on Aug 5 to review the credit policy though largely expectations are that it will be status quo.

The last 3 months May –July has been highly eventful with the Lok Sabha elections followed by the Union Budget and also the corporate results providing exciting times in the stock market. For the current month broadly some rebalancing could be expected taking cues from the recent results announced .Broadly Nifty could see some range bound trading of 7500-7750


EQUITY REPORT

Finolex Cables Ltd.IntroductionFinolex Cables the flagship of Finolex industries was established in 1958 at Pune. It started its operations with production of PVC insulated electrical cables for automobile players. Since then, the company has constantly endeavored to augment its product range to include, PVC insulated industrial cables , FR-LSH PVC Insulated Industrial Cables, PVC insulated single core and multi-core flexible industrial cables,fibre optic cables and others. The com-pany has, over the years, established its reputation as an innovative leader and quality manufacturer by continuously upgrading technology, modernizing manufacturing facilities and maintaining highest standards of quality and services. It currently has manufacturing facilities at Pimpri and Urse in Pune as well as at Goa & Uttarakhand.

Business ModuleThe company currently operates in 4 broad segments- the electrical cables,copper rods, communication cables and others. The electrical cables contribute to about 63% of the revenue and the next prioritized segment is the copper rods followed by communication cables and others. Finolex cables has extended its business beyond the cables division and produces wide number of electrical components like the switches, led’s and CFL’s. Both the above products fared well during the year under review and grew by more than 100% in volume and value terms.

Investment RationaleIndustry outlookThe demand in the cable industry has been characterized by its cyclical pattern. The Cable Industry is de-licensed with approval for Foreign Direct Investment up to 100 percent. The market is primarily fragmented into two types of users: Industrial and Domestic. The Industrial users mainly comprise of Power, Communication, Cement, Steel, Railways & Petro-Chemicals sectors.In near term the outlook is expected to be good. After the union budget 2014, with increased focus on infrastructure development and growth of telecommunication along with the major reforms is expected to create a positive impact.

Changes in product mix to improve marginsThe company has ventured into new products like lights and electrical switches. New range of lamps including LED based lighting systems meant for home use, street lighting and other commercial spaces were launched in FY14.The company plans to enter switchgear segment with launch of MCB’s,ELCB’s and product range of transformers and motors. Finolex plans to shift its brand status from cables manufacturer to electrical equipment manufacturer.With these ventures finolex plans to de-risk the business and increase the contribution from electrical equipments from 1% to 3-4%..

Stronger financials with improving margins.The company has seen a substantial improvement in financial s in the past 5-6 yrs While on one hand debt has substantially reduced from `295 cr in FY9 to 127 in FY 14, capex increased from `762 cr to 1000 cr in the same period indicating financing from internal accruals as a result of high operating cash flows.With negligible interest costs currently the company is strongly placed to undertake any expansion activity.

Valuation At CMP 212.35 the stock is trading at a multiple 15.72X its TTM consensus EPS of 13.58. We assign a multiple of 15X to FY16E EPS of 16.25 to arrive at a value of 245. Therefore we give a “BUY“ rating to the stock.


Introduction EQUITY REPORT

Financials

(INR in crore)

Particulars Q4FY14 Q4FY13 % Chg (YoY) Q3FY14 % Chg

(QoQ) FY14 FY13 % Chg

Net sales 649.09 632.3 3% 563.1 15% 2359.04 2270.38 3.91%

Expenditure 573.99 565.64 1% 518.8 11% 2111.93 2042.15 3.42%

Ebitda 75.1 66.66 13% 44.3 70% 247.11 228.23 8.27%

Other income 6.05 6.61 -8% 3.47 74% 48.35 24.7 95.75%

PBIDT 81.15 73.27 11% 47.77 70% 295.46 252.93 16.81%

Depreciation 12.24 14.69 -17% 12.67 -3% 48.43 46.63 3.86%

Interest 3.08 4.2 -27% 3.49 -12% 13.4 12.46 7.54%

PBT 65.83 54.38 21% 31.61 108% 233.63 193.84 20.53%

Exceptional items 0 -8.02 - 0 - 10.38 -23.01 -

PBT and exceptional items 65.83 46.36 42% 31.61 108% 244.01 170.83 42.84%

Tax -3.52 7.42 7.1 36.3 26.14 38.87%

PAT 69.35 38.94 78% 24.51 183% 207.71 145.29 42.96%

EBITDA% 12% 11% 10% 8% 47% 10.48% 10.05% 4.20%

NPM% 11% 6% 73% 4% 145% 8.80% 6.40% 37.59%

Adjusted EPS 4.53 2.53 79% 1.6 183% 13.6 9.5 43.16%

Source- Annual and quarterly reports of Finolex cables.


TECHNICAL VIEW

Nifty -- Shaking out weak bulls

Nifty and Sensex continued to make new highs, as the markets saw good momentum and sector shift. Different sectors participating in the rally augurs well for the markets, going forward. As indicated in the July edition of Market Pulse, the IT, Healthcare, and FMCG sectors outperformed the indices. Real estate and capital goods were the worst losers.

The RBI policy meet on Aug 05, 2014 could decide further course of the markets. We expect the bullishness to continue irrespective of the decision on rates. If the markets could experience a pre-election rally, a pre-budget rally, then why can’t we expect a pre-independence day rally? The sectors in focus during August would be oil & gas, especially the PSU stocks.


DERIVATIVE REPORT

Sectoral shift likely in August series Rollover Analysis

OVERALL OUTLOOKThe July series began on a strong note and saw steady gains and finally the index managed to close at 7721 net-ting gains of 228 pts for the series. The banking stocks and rate sensitives saw some profit-taking .The IT and pharma sectors saw some recovery after being in the shadow for the past 2 months. The Nifty has settled in the 7700-7800 range in the last few weeks though closing near the lower band for the series .Mixed corporate results has seen some strong shift .The capital goods in particular has shown strong profit-taking .Overall caution is advised at higher levels as the last few months has already seen a dream run up.

NIFTYThe Nifty saw rollover of 63 % compared to 68% in the previous month.The rollover was also higher compared to the 3-month average (60.5%) and the 6-month average(60.5%).This has been at a premium of 29 basis points as compared to 41 points in the previous month.However the point to note was the lighter quantum of Nifty futures to begin with which was at 13.21 mn compared to 14.21 mn in the beginning of July series.

Market-wide rolls were at 82 % vs previous month’s 83 and the 3-month average of 81%.

BANK NIFTY The index saw rolls of 57% compared to 63% in the previous month.Rollover has been at a premium of 83 points com-pared to 162 points in the July series.Again lighter quantum of Bank Nifty futures to begin with which was at 0.9 mn compared to 1.1 mn in the beginning of July series hinting at possible shorts.


Some notable long /short rollovers have been identified which have been presented below :- Bharti: The scrip saw lower rolls of 63% against 81% in the previous month, 3-mnth average (75%) and 6-mnth average (74%).The lower rolls is on the back of absence of short rolls .Buying could be considered at declines for a possible target of 400. ABNuvo: The scrip saw rolls of 96% against 88% in the previous month, 3-mnth average (85%) and 6-mnth average (84%).Buying could be considered at declines for a possible target of 1540. Titan: The scrip saw rolls of 93% against 82 % in the previous month, 3-mnth average (81%) and 6-mnth average (81%).Buying could be considered at declines for a possible target of 362. Arvind: The scrip saw rolls of 80% against 57 % in the previous month, 3-mnth average (72%) and 6-mnth average (75%).Buying could be considered at declines for a possible target of 248. UltraTech: The scrip saw rolls of 76% against 66 % in the previous month, 3-mnth average (67%) and 6-mnth average (71%).The bias was on the short side ,Selling could be considered around 2500-2520 for a possible target of 2275

Hindpetro: The scrip saw rolls of 72% against 3-month average of 85% indicates cut down in short positions in Aug series . The stock can bought around 400 for a possible target of 425 in the short term.

Jpassociate: The scrip saw rolls of 76% against 88 % in the previous month, 3-mnth average (85%) and 6-mnth average (81%). The cut down in open interest indicates short positions not rolled. Buying could be considered at de-clines for a possible target of 70.

DERIVATIVE REPORT


DEBT MARKET REPORT

DEBT MARKET

Following announcements in the Union Budget in July 2014 were the major factors that affected the debt mar-ket:• Banks were permitted to raise long-term funds for lending to infrastructure sector, with minimum regulatory pre-

emption such as CRR, SLR, and Priority Sector Lending (PSL)

• Rate of tax on long-term capital gains increased from 10% to 20% on transfer of units of mutual funds, other than equity-oriented funds. This was done to remove the tax arbitrage opportunity available to mutual funds

• Income and dividend distribution tax to be levied on gross amount instead of amount paid net of taxes.

Inflation as measured by WPI and combined CPI eased to 5.43% (6.01% for May-14) and 7.31% respectively (8.28% for May-14). Although core WPI inflation inched up marginally to 3.88%, core CPI inflation saw a sharp fall from 7.71% for May-14 to 7.39% for Jun-14

For many days in July, the overnight rates were above 9%. The main causes for the market rates disturbance were: • Reduction in the amount of funds that RBI lends under the overnight repo rate to 0.25% of deposits

• The infrequent or delayed conduct of the term repos for 7-days and 14-days

Further, July saw the introduction of the new 10-year government security. The new security had a coupon of 8.40% maturing on July 28, 2014. However, it closed at 8.49% (Price - 99.3500 against issue price of Rs 100.00).

As on July 31 T-Bill CD

1m 8.40% 8.41%

3m 8.59% 8.83%

6m 8.64% 8.93%

1yr 8.67% 9.04%

As on July 31 G-Sec Corp bond

3yr 8.40% 9.18%

5yr 8.45% 9.31%

10yr 8.71% 9.23%

15yr 8.64% 9.23%

100

100.5

101

101.5

1 2 3 4 7 8 9 10 11 14 15 16 17 18 21 22 23 24 25 28 30 31

July Month

Pri

ce


COMMODITY REPORT

Natural Gas - Fibonacci FollowerLeonardo Fibonacci da Pisa, a thirteenth century mathematician, discovered the Fibonacci (pronounced fib-eh-nah-chee) sequence of numbers. The Fibonacci sequence is the series of numbers: 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144, and so on to infinity.

Golden Ratio: After the first several numbers in the sequence, the ratio of any number to the next higher number is approximaterly 0.618 to 1 and to the next lower number is approximately 1.618 to 1. Golden spiral, which is a type of logarithmic, or equiangular spiral, has no boundaries and is a constant shape in golden ratio. A spiral implies motion – growth and de-cay, expansion and contraction, and progress and regress. The golden spiral is the quintessential expression of natural growth phenomena found throughout the universe. It covers scales as small as the motion of atomic particles and as large as galaxies. The question is, does movement in stock market, commodity market, or any global market segment operate on the same mathematical basis as so many natural phenomena? To which the answer is YES. The fact is that waves produce the Fibonacci sequence of numbers, which reveals tht man’s collectively expressed motions are keyed to this mathematical law of nature.

Now, let us jump to the main topic of this article – Natural gas is a fibonacci follower. Close observation states that behaviour of every market is different. If we talk about commodity maket, behaviour of every commodity is different. Gold-Silver behave in a trend channel form and the trend breakout works more into that. Metals follow 18-20 days cycle rotation, oscillator works best in Crude, and similarly, MCX Natural Gas follows the fibonacci retracement and exten-tions. Following charts suggest that Natural Gas has followed Fibonacci not once, twice, or thrice, but every time the Golden section appears in that.


COMMODITY REPORT

Both the charts cited above are daily charts of the MCX Natural Gas. Vertical line is intentionally drawn to segregate every cycle. The following table suggests that every movement on the upside retraces up to the Fibonacci level.

Cycle Period Uptrend Correction until % correction POINT

20 APR 2014- 14 JUNE 2012 99-155 122 61.80% A

14 JUNE 2012 -28 AUG 2012 122-183 145 61.80% B

28 AUG 2012- 15 FEB 2013 145-217 170 61.80% C

15 FEB 2013- 10 AUG 2013 170-239 196 61.80% D

10 AUG 2013- 5 NOV 2013 196- 256 213 0.6 E

Point F has retraced more than 61.8% of the previous up move suggesting that the previous spike move was the end of the Mo-tive wave.

All cycles and their waves behave in the fractal nature and in Golden ratio too. That means wave strcuture for the larger cycle is the same as for the smaller one. Chart on the the right is the example of the fractal nature of the Elliott wave. Going through the chart on a bigger time frame of MCX Natural Gas, we can easily find the fractal nature. Movement from 99.50 to 402.70 for Apr 20, 2012-Feb 24, 2014 suggests that the larger time frame Motive wave is complete.


COMMODITY REPORT

Above is weekly chart of MCX Natural gas. Applying retracement from low of 99.50 to 402.70 levels, (which is made up of all smaller cycles), suggests that prices may take support near 215, i.e. 61.8% retracement level or we can say prices may retrace to maximum of 76.4% up to levels of 170.

After correcting back to Fibonacci level, prices resume the uptrend, which also gains momentum in relation to the previ-ous cycle. A mathematical relationship exists between a price wave and the waves that follow. The Fibonacci extension tool is drawn over one wave of price to provide estimates on where the next price wave will go. The most watched Fibo-nacci extension levels are: 61.8%, 100%, 138.2%, 161.8%, 200%, 238.2%, and 261.8%. Applying Fibonacci Extension to the MCX Natural Gas, every Motive wave extends with a relation to the previous cycle.


COMMODITY REPORT

Cycle Period Uptrend Correction until % correction POINT

20 APR 2014- 14 JUNE 2012 99-155 122 61.80% A

14 JUNE 2012 -28 AUG 2012 122-183 145 61.80% B

28 AUG 2012- 15 FEB 2013 145-217 170 61.80% C

15 FEB 2013- 10 AUG 2013 170-239 196 61.80% D

10 AUG 2013- 5 NOV 2013 196- 256 213 0.6 E

Let us see the Fibonacci Extention on a larger degree.

Above is the weekly chart of MCX Natural Gas, which suggests that if prices retrace to levels of 215 or below the cycle would be complete. Resuming to make new cycle needs the extention calculation. If prices resume uptrend after cor-recting, they may extend up to levels of 519, i.e. 100% relative to the previous cycle.


CURRENCY REPORT

USDINR – Rise could spook the markets

The USDINR after forming a bottom near the 58-58.50 zone, started rising steadily, giving a breakout out of a falling wedge on the weekly chart of USDINR. A falling wedge has a bullish implication and as per Thomas Bulkowski, has a 70% strike rate. However, lower time frame charts suggest the rise could be arrested at the 62.75-63.25 zone, which is an important level as per Fibonacci projections. Once this resistance is broken, the next key level lies at 65.50-66.

Most of the movement depends on the RBI policy and rate decision meet scheduled for Aug 05, 2014. Generally, there is a negative correlation between the USDINR and the Indian indices. The benchmark indices have already started show-ing signs of a top formation. With all the global news flow of the default of Argentina and rise in the US 30yr treasury yields, we are set for a volatile environment.


INVESTMENTZ Mutual Fund Rankings (IMFR) Explore India’s Top rated funds with INVESTMENTZ Mutual Fund Rankings

Equity: Flexi Cap | Multi Cap | Value Funds | Opportunities Funds

Star Ratings Rank Scheme Name Corpus

(Rs Cr)

Returns %RatioSortino

NAV(Rs)3

Months6

Months1

Year3

Years

***** 1 ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund - G 5242 30.2 56.2 87.5 23.5 2 92.3

***** 2 Birla Sun Life Pure Value Fund - G 208 33.7 73 104.6 23.9 2.3 32.4

***** 3 Franklin India High Growth Companies Fund - G 699 27.7 48.3 63.8 20.8 1.8 22.4

***** 4 Birla Sun Life Equity Fund - Growth 1003 26.6 45.9 70 18 1.8 415.4

***** 5 Tata Mid Cap Growth Fund - Plan A - G 258 30.6 52.3 78.5 19.9 1.5 75.2

**** 6 SBI Magnum Global Fund 94 - G 1198 21.9 37.3 56.9 19.1 2.3 99.8

**** 7 Tata Equity P/E Fund - Plan A - G 468 26.8 52 73.5 16 2.1 73.2

**** 8 Principal Growth Fund - G 362 22.7 38.5 61.9 19.5 1.7 83.2

**** 9 HDFC Equity Fund - G 15108 23.1 44.9 65.5 14.7 1.3 418.7

**** 10 Reliance Equity Opportunities Fund - G 7325 22.1 36.5 59.9 18.4 1.4 60.8

Equity: Large Cap Funds


(Rs Cr)

Returns %Ratio

SortinoNAV(Rs)3

Months6

Months1

Year3

Years

***** 1 Birla Sun Life Top 100 Fund - G 613 20.7 37.4 53 17.6 1.8 37.1

***** 2 SBI Magnum Bluechip Fund - G 1018 20.2 33.2 45.9 17.7 1.7 23.1

*****3 Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity Fund - Plan

A - G 5859 19.5 35.3 47 17.2 1.5 139.6

*****4 ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip Equity Fund

- Ret - G 6645 18.9 33 45.1 15.9 2 25.8

***** 5 Reliance Top 200 Fund - G 893 21.8 38.3 56.4 15.8 1.5 19.9

**** 6 Principal Large Cap Fund - G 310 18.5 34 48 13.9 2.4 41

**** 7 Reliance Focused Large Cap Fund - G 1103 15.4 29 44.9 14.9 1.6 20.3

**** 8 UTI Top 100 Fund - G 635 18.4 29.7 36.2 13.6 1.7 41.5

*** 9 Tata Pure Equity Fund - Plan A - G 706 17.6 26.6 35.6 14.2 2.1 143.1

***10 DSP BlackRock Top 100 Equity Fund -

Reg - G 3271 20.4 32.8 38.1 13 1.3 142.4

MUTUAL FUND PERFORMANCE


Equity: Mid – Small Cap Funds


(Rs Cr)


NAV(Rs)3

Months6

Months1

Year3

Years

***** 1 Reliance Small Cap Fund - G 782.6 36.4 62.6 111.3 23.6 3 18.8

***** 2 Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund - G 843.9 30.4 58.4 87.9 27.3 2.2 29.4

***** 3 ICICI Prudential MidCap Fund - G 525.2 32.6 62 103.3 20 2.6 56.2

***** 4 UTI Mid Cap Fund - G 1169.8 29.3 56.6 90.4 21.7 2.5 58.9

***** 5 DSP BlackRock Micro Cap Fund - Reg - G 849.8 34.4 62.7 99.6 21.5 2.1 28.3

**** 6 SBI Magnum Midcap Fund - G 495.5 24 41.5 80 22.6 2.5 42.9

**** 7 Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Fund - G 385.9 24.8 49.5 79.8 23.7 2.3 21.8

**** 8 Reliance Long Term Equity Fund - G 1241.5 30 56.1 81.3 18.8 2.2 26.2

**** 9 HSBC Midcap Equity Fund - Growth 185.3 29.5 59.6 109.1 15.3 1.8 30.4

**** 10 HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund - G 5912.1 23.1 47.5 75 20.5 2.2 28.9

Equity: Thematic Funds | Sector Funds


(Rs Cr)


NAV(Rs)3

Months6

Months1

Year3

Years

***** 1 Franklin Build India Fund - G 117.7 30.9 57.4 73 23.3 1.8 21.3

***** 2 ICICI Prudential Exports and Other Ser-vices Fund - G 410.9 19.5 25 60.5 26.3 2.1 34.5

***** 3 Birla Sun Life Infrastructure Fund - Plan A - G 624.5 29.4 61.3 79.1 12.5 1.1 22.6

***** 4 Birla Sun Life Special Situations Fund - G 149.6 28.7 49.3 66.9 14.7 1.2 14.3

***** 5 PineBridge Infras & Economic Reform Fund - Std - G 114.8 30.7 62.2 72 9.9 1.3 12.5

**** 5 L&T Infrastructure Fund - G 106.8 29.7 63.3 83.1 11.1 1.1 9.2

**** 6 HDFC Infrastructure Fund - G 1490.8 29.7 70.8 89.1 8.6 0.9 14.5

**** 7 L&T India Special Situations Fund - G 714.7 18.9 35.7 47.9 16.7 1.4 29.3

**** 8 HSBC Progressive Themes Fund - G 147.5 34 72.3 91.5 9.4 0.8 15.3

**** 9 ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund - G 1774.7 26.3 53.5 67.1 9.2 1.2 37

*** 10 DSP BlackRock India Tiger Fund - Reg - G 1437.9 27.4 55.6 63.6 10.9 0.8 59

Equity: ELSS| Tax Saving Funds


(Rs Cr)

Returns %Ratio

SortinoNAV(Rs)3

Months6

Months1

Year3

Years

***** 1 Axis Long Term Equity Fund - G 1572.2 24.7 44.4 63.4 23.2 2.5 24

***** 2 Reliance Tax Saver (ELSS) Fund - G 2871.5 30.4 60.3 87.4 20.9 1.3 37.6

***** 3 ICICI Prudential Taxplan - G 2095.1 22.1 40.3 65.7 18.2 1.8 233.3

***** 4 Principal Tax Savings Fund 250.6 22.6 40.6 61.9 20 1.7 122.9

***** 5 BNP Paribas Tax Advantage Plan - G 235 25.2 38.9 50.3 18.9 2.4 24.1

**** 6 HDFC Taxsaver - G 4606.6 23.4 44.6 64.4 14.5 1.8 350.7

**** 7 SBI Magnum Tax Gain Scheme 93 - G 4736 22 38.2 53.3 17.5 1.9 95.8

**** 8 DSP BlackRock Tax Saver Fund - G 894 23.8 39.3 53.1 17.3 1.7 26.9

**** 9 HDFC Long Term Advantage Fund - G 1071.5 19.7 37.4 53.9 16.2 2 216.1

*** 10 Religare Invesco Tax Plan - G 177.7 24 38.7 55.5 16.5 1.4 28.6



Returns %

Indices 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 3 Years

CNX 500 Index 18.6 33.3 42 12.1

CNX Infrastructure 22.6 43.4 48.1 1.8

CNX Media 16 22 24.9 13.5

CNX Nifty Index 16.4 28.3 35.4 12.4

S&P BSE 100 17 30.1 37.5 12.4

S&P BSE 200 17.7 31.3 39.1 11.9

S&P BSE 500 18.5 32.8 41.2 11.6

S&P BSE CG 21.9 57.1 79.3 4.4

S&P BSE METAL 30.8 44.5 94.3 -2.3

S&P BSE Oil & Gas 12.6 28.7 27.7 6.9

Fund Rating Methodology Note:

INVESTMENTZ - Mutual Fund Ranking (IMFR) gives you an idea about the Mutual Fund schemes, which have per-formed well within relative categories based on various parameters. This rating is based on quantitative analysis. IMFR have been concluded after evaluating schemes performance to peer group on the basis of various performance param-eters. Schemes included are open ended in nature. For Equity funds Compounded Annualized (Point to Point) returns have been considered along with the Risk ratios like Sharpe, Sortino and Standard Deviation. For Equity Schemes corpus equal or above Rs.100Cr or schemes having over 3 years track records have been considered for ranking. IN-VESTMENTZ do not rate all mutual fund schemes.



EQUITY SIP PERFORMANCE

Aggressive Portfolio

Sr. No. Scrip Name Sector Weight Acc. Qty Avg.

PriceTotal

InvestmentBasket

Qty

Price as on 31st

July 2014

Total Value

Portfolio Beta

Return

% Return

Wt. Return

1 Tata Motors Ltd Automobile 11.08% 60 351.84 21110.63 3.00 446.75 1340.25 0.11 0.27 2.99%

2 ICICI Bank Banking 11.88% 20 1131.36 22627.17 1.00 1,471.25 1471.25 0.19 0.30 3.57%

3 LIC Housing Finance Ltd

NBFC 5.05% 40 240.57 9622.69 2.00 289.70 579.40 0.09 0.20 1.03%

4 Larsen & Toubro Ltd Capital Goods

13.21% 23 1094.26 25168.01 1.00 1,502.90 1502.90 0.19 0.37 4.93%

5 Ambuja Cement Ltd Cement 3.95% 40 187.94 7517.58 2.00 206.40 412.80 0.04 0.10 0.39%

6 ONGC Ltd Oil & Gas 3.59% 18 374.15 6830.25 1.00 395.35 395.35 0.05 0.06 0.20%

7 Aditya Birla Nuvo Ltd Diversified 12.22% 20 1163.58 23271.53 1.00 1,476.30 1476.30 0.13 0.27 3.28%

8 HCL Technologies Ltd IT services 11.65% 20 1109.21 22184.21 1.00 1,555.10 1555.10 0.04 0.40 4.68%

9 Zee Entertainment Ent. Ltd

Media 5.30% 40 252.56 10102.40 2.00 290.70 581.40 0.04 0.15 0.80%

10 Tata Steel Ltd Metals & Mining

4.68% 23 387.41 8910.49 2.00 553.40 1106.80 0.06 0.43 2.00%

11 Sun Pharmaceuticals Inds. Ltd

Pharmaceu-ticals

10.58% 37 544.44 20144.43 1.00 790.95 790.95 0.06 0.45 4.79%

12 Bharti Airtel Ltd Telecom 6.81% 40 324.19 12967.45 2.00 372.90 745.80 0.07 0.15 1.02%

Exit Cairn India Ltd Oil & Gas 3.44% 17 313.39 5327.62 1.00 341.40 341.40 0.02 0.09 0.31%

100.00% 190456.85 11958.30 1.08 30.01%

Dividend 0.75%

Total 30.75%

Moderate Portfolio

Sr. No. Scrip Name Sector Weight Acc. Qty Avg.

PriceTotal Invest-

mentBasket

Qty

Price as on 31st

Jul 2014

Total Value

Portfolio Beta

Return

% Return

Wt. Return

1 Maruti Suzuki India Ltd

Automobile 16.56% 20 1701.24 34024.75 1.00 2,524.05 2524.05 0.14 0.48 8.01%

2 HDFC Bank Banking 7.89% 23 704.74 16209.09 2.00 834.00 1668.00 0.08 0.18 1.45%

3 M&M Financial Ser-vices Ltd

NBFC 2.61% 21 255.18 5358.74 2.00 235.25 470.50 0.02 -0.08 -0.20%

4 Larsen & Toubro Ltd Capital Goods

12.25% 23 1094.26 25168.01 1.00 1,502.90 1502.90 0.19 0.37 4.57%

5 Ambuja Cement Ltd Cement 3.66% 40 187.94 7517.58 2.00 206.40 412.80 0.03 0.10 0.36%

6 ITC Ltd FMCG 6.39% 40 328.38 13135.18 2.00 356.05 712.10 0.04 0.08 0.54%

7 TCS Ltd IT services 18.67% 20 1917.99 38359.70 1.00 2,580.05 2580.05 0.10 0.35 6.44%

8 Zee Entertainment Ent. Ltd

Media 4.92% 40 252.56 10102.40 2.00 290.70 581.40 0.03 0.15 0.74%

9 Hindalco Inds. Ltd Metals & Mining

2.33% 40 119.81 4792.42 2.00 191.70 383.40 0.04 0.60 1.40%

10 Reliance Inds. Ltd Oil & Gas 8.58% 20 881.91 17638.25 1.00 1,006.45 1006.45 0.08 0.14 1.21%

11 Biocon Ltd Pharmaceu-ticals

7.21% 40 370.68 14827.06 2.00 470.10 940.20 0.05 0.27 1.94%


Exit REC Ltd NBFC 2.52% 8 215.08 1720.60 8.00 170.00 1360.00 0.04 -0.21 -0.53%

100.00% 205511.36 13527.65 0.87 27.33%

Dividend 0.67%

Total 27.99%



Defensive Portfolio

Sr. No. Scrip Name Sector Weight Acc.

QtyAvg. Price

Total In-vestment

Basket Qty

Price as on 31st

Jul 2014

Total Value

Portfolio Beta

Return

% Return

Wt. Return

1 Maruti Suzuki India Ltd Automobile 16.23% 20 1695.01 33900.25 1.00 2,524.05 2524.05 0.14 0.49 7.94%

2 Bharat Forge Ltd Automobile 4.33% 17 510.15 9042.95 1.00 723.75 723.75 0.18 0.42 1.81%

3 HDFC Bank Banking 7.34% 23 666.39 15326.90 2.00 834.00 1668.00 0.07 0.25 1.85%

4 Cummins India Ltd Capital Goods 4.71% 20 491.59 9831.70 1.00 626.65 626.65 0.02 0.27 1.29%

5 Dabur India Ltd FMCG 6.97% 84 178.60 14551.45 4.00 207.25 829.00 0.03 0.16 1.12%

6 Apollo Hospitals Enter-prise Ltd

Healthcare 8.67% 20 905.19 18103.75 1.00 1,013.20 1013.20 0.03 0.12 1.03%

7 TCS Ltd IT services 18.28% 20 1909.55 38190.90 1.00 2,580.05 2580.05 0.10 0.35 6.42%

8 NMDC Ltd Metals & Mining 3.83% 60 133.46 8007.40 3.00 170.05 510.15 0.03 0.27 1.05%

9 HDFC Ltd NBFC 8.14% 20 850.38 17007.65 1.00 1,068.40 1068.40 0.08 0.26 2.09%

10 BPCL Oil & Gas 7.36% 40 384.17 15366.75 2.00 580.15 1160.30 0.04 0.51 3.75%

11 Lupin Ltd Pharmaceu-ticals

8.15% 20 850.84 17016.80 1.00 1,181.75 1181.75 0.02 0.39 3.17%


Exit Torrent Power Ltd Power 5.65% 24 138.71 3328.95 3.00 76.00 228.00 0.03 -0.45 -2.55%

Exit Godrej Consumer Prod-ucts Ltd

FMCG 8.01% 17 799.77 13596.05 1.00 763.75 763.75 0.02 -0.05 -0.36%

Exit Asian Paints Ltd Paints 3.75% 14 454.32 6360.50 1.00 506.35 506.35 0.03 0.11 0.43%

100.00% 208892.00 14631.10 0.79 30.17%

Dividend 0.61%

Total 30.78%

Dividend Yield Portfolio


QtyAvg. Price

Total In-vestment

Basket Qty

Price as on 31st

Jul 2014

Total Value

Portfolio Beta

Return

% Return

Wt. Return

1 Hero Motocorp Ltd Automobile 20.32% 12 2180.93 26171.10 1.00 2,597.15 2597.15 0.14 0.19 3.88%

2 REC Ltd NBFC 4.39% 24 235.34 5648.20 2.00 306.00 612.00 0.07 0.30 1.32%

3 Karur Vysya Bank BFSI 6.94% 24 372.43 8938.30 2.00 483.75 967.50 0.05 0.30 2.07%

4 ACC Ltd Cement 11.20% 12 1201.54 14418.45 1.00 1,395.90 1395.90 0.08 0.16 1.81%

5 Tata Chemicals Ltd Chemicals 2.64% 12 282.87 3394.40 1.00 347.20 347.20 0.02 0.23 0.60%

6 Cummins India Ltd Capital Goods 9.47% 24 507.89 12189.30 2.00 626.65 1253.30 0.04 0.23 2.21%

7 Hindustan Unilever Ltd FMCG 5.59% 12 599.58 7195.00 1.00 686.60 686.60 0.03 0.15 0.81%

8 ONGC Ltd Oil & Gas 5.94% 24 318.75 7650.00 2.00 395.35 790.70 0.07 0.24 1.43%

9 Tata Steel Ltd Metals 7.34% 24 394.01 9456.30 2.00 553.40 1106.80 0.09 0.40 2.97%

10 Coal India Ltd Mining 2.80% 12 300.30 3603.65 1.00 367.70 367.70 0.02 0.22 0.63%

11 HCL Technologies Ltd IT services 12.46% 12 1336.82 16041.80 1.00 1,555.10 1555.10 0.05 0.16 2.03%

12 Piramal Enterprises Ltd Pharmaceu-ticals

10.92% 24 585.78 14058.70 2.00 649.20 1298.40 0.07 0.11 1.18%

100.00% 128765.20 11679.95 0.72 20.95%

Dividend 0.54%

Total 21.49%



Mid Cap Portfolio


QtyAvg. Price

Total In-vestment

Basket Qty

Price as on 31st

Jul 2014

Total Value

Portfolio Beta

Return

% Return

Wt. Return

1 Motherson Sumi Sys-tems Ltd

Auto Ancillaries 4.61% 17 265.41 4511.91 2.00 364.95 729.90 0.02 0.38 1.73%

2 ING Vysya Bank BFSI 4.83% 8 590.38 4723.05 1.00 609.25 609.25 0.04 0.03 0.15%

3 Bajaj Finance Ltd NBFC 14.83% 8 1813.93 14511.40 1.00 2,192.40 2192.40 0.15 0.21 3.09%

4 Va Tech Wabag Ltd Capital Goods 14.84% 16 907.96 14527.40 2.00 1,436.80 2873.60 0.07 0.58 8.64%

5 PI Industries Ltd Chemicals 4.71% 16 287.89 4606.30 2.00 397.65 795.30 0.02 0.38 1.79%

6 Britannia Industries Ltd FMCG 7.54% 8 923.17 7385.35 1.00 1,148.40 1148.40 0.04 0.24 1.84%

7 CMC Ltd IT services 12.83% 8 1570.33 12562.60 1.00 1,926.70 1926.70 0.03 0.23 2.91%

8 Tech Mahindra Ltd IT services 12.04% 6 1964.78 11788.65 1.00 2,150.60 2150.60 0.03 0.09 1.14%

9 Aia Engineering Ltd Capital Goods 5.38% 7 752.91 5270.35 1.00 779.70 779.70 0.02 0.04 0.19%

10 Info Edge India Ltd Miscellaneous 4.93% 8 603.28 4826.25 1.00 690.20 690.20 0.01 0.14 0.71%

11 Ipca Laboratories Ltd Pharmaceu-ticals

8.75% 11 778.34 8561.75 1.00 706.45 706.45 0.00 -0.09 -0.81%

12 JK Cement Ltd Cement 4.71% 13 354.58 4609.55 2.00 390.00 780.00 0.03 0.10 0.47%

Exit Persistent Systems Ltd IT services 9.42% 5.00 1013.77 5068.85 1.00 1,070.75 1070.75 0.02 0.06 0.53%

Exit Castrol India Ltd Lubricants 5.47% 10.00 294.24 2942.40 2.00 291.90 583.80 0.01 -0.01 -0.04%

Exit Torrent Pharmaceuti-cals Ltd

Pharmaceu-ticals

10.07% 10.00 541.77 5417.70 2.00 614.30 1228.60 0.02 0.13 1.35%

Exit Supreme Industries Ltd Plastics 4.23% 5.00 454.92 2274.60 1.00 507.75 507.75 0.01 0.12 0.49%

100.00% 97884.56 15382.50 0.47 24.20%

Dividend 0.05%

Total 24.25%

PSU Equity SIP Portfolio


QtyAvg. Price

Total In-vestment

Basket Qty

Price as on 31st Jul 2014

Total Value

Portfolio Beta

Return

% Return

Wt. Return

1 Bank of Baroda BFSI 9.84% 4 969.00 3594.05 1.00 871.85 871.85 0.16 -0.10 -0.99%

2 BOI BFSI 6.59% 8 300.00 2405.70 2.00 274.50 549.00 0.13 -0.09 -0.56%

3 REC Ltd BFSI 7.25% 8 330.00 2647.50 2.00 306.00 612.00 0.11 -0.07 -0.53%

4 BHEL Capital Goods 8.18% 12 266.50 2987.70 3.00 228.35 685.05 0.12 -0.14 -1.17%

5 BEML Capital Goods 14.47% 8 559.00 5285.10 2.00 630.50 1261.00 0.18 0.13 1.85%

6 GSFC Fertilizers 5.06% 24 71.50 1846.80 6.00 76.65 459.90 0.03 0.07 0.36%

7 Container Corporation of India Ltd

Logistics 13.38% 4 1174.95 4884.70 1.00 1,306.20 1306.20 0.06 0.11 1.49%

8 Coal India Ltd. Metals & Mining 8.29% 8 389.00 3029.00 2.00 367.70 735.40 0.06 -0.05 -0.45%

9 SAIL Metals & Mining 5.99% 24 86.50 2186.70 6.00 87.85 527.10 0.06 0.02 0.09%

10 Oil & Natural Gas Cor-poration Ltd.

Oil & Gas 8.95% 8 417.00 3270.00 2.00 395.35 790.70 0.11 -0.05 -0.46%

11 BPCL Oil & Gas 6.30% 4 575.90 2301.20 1.00 580.15 580.15 0.08 0.01 0.05%

12 Powergrid Ltd Power 5.70% 16 122.25 2082.20 4.00 133.10 532.40 0.04 0.09 0.51%

Total 100.00% 36520.65 8910.75 1.15 0.19%


RETAIL RESEARCH CALL PERFORMANCE

Daily PicksCalls Performance Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July

Total calls given 50 37 56 47 47 58 56 63 51 55 60 56

Target 60 60 60 60 60 69 57 60 57 63 60 60

Successful 37 22 32 26 28 35 36 44 36 41 43 35

Unsuccessful 13 15 24 21 19 23 20 19 15 14 17 21

Success Rate 74% 59% 57% 55% 60% 60% 64% 70% 71% 75% 72% 63%

Quick PicksCalls Activated 25 23 35 17 46 29 18 33 28 32 33 25

Target 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Successful 14 13 22 5 31 18 10 21 17 25 21 15

Unsuccessful 11 10 13 12 15 11 8 12 11 7 12 10

Success Rate 56% 57% 63% 29% 67% 62% 56% 64% 61% 78% 64% 60%

MT Medium Risk CallsCalls Activated 60 45 39 18 46 38 22 40 22 21 27 38

Target 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

Successful 43 31 24 7 32 28 15 33 14 17 21 31

Unsuccessful 17 12 17 10 14 10 7 9 8 4 6 7

Success Rate 72% 72% 59% 41% 70% 74% 68% 79% 64% 81% 78% 82%

MT High Risk CallsCalls Activated 43 30 27 16 24 24 17 18 18 17 19 19

Target 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Successful 21 17 19 6 19 18 11 10 11 15 17 13

Unsuccessful 22 10 11 9 5 6 6 7 6 2 2 6

Success Rate 49% 63% 63% 40% 79% 75% 65% 59% 65% 88% 100% 68%

SmarTrades CallsCalls Activated 12 8 10 9 14 10 11 9 5 13 12 18

Target 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Successful 4 8 3 10 13 9 3 9 7 12 4 12

Unsuccessful 7 1 3 2 0 4 3 3 2 4 4 6

Success Rate 36% 67% 43% 83% 72% 60% 50% 75% 78% 75% 50% 67%


Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

1 2 3

4• AIA

Engineering

5 6• Apollo Tyres

7 8• Automobile sales

data (y/y chg)

9 10

11• HSIL

12• Apollo Hosp• Coal India

• CPI Inflation - Rural (YoY Chg)

• CPI Inflation - Urban (YoY Chg)

• CPI Inflation - Combined (YoY Chg)

• IIP (YoY Chg)

13• Tata Steel• Voltas

14• Hindalco Inds

• WPI Inflation (YoY Chg) New Series (Base 2004-05)

15 16 17

18 19 20• CPI -

Agricultural Labourers (YoY Chg)

• CPI - Rural Labourers (YoY Chg)

21 22 23 24

25 26 27• IIP Core

(YoY Chg)

28• Government

finances - fiscal deficit (pct of Budget Estimate)

29• CPI-Industrial

Workers• Gross Domestic

Product (YoY Chg)

30 31

EVENT CALENDARAugust 2014

Economic Event

Results Update


Disclaimer:This report is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon such. ACMIIL or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in the report. ACMIIL and/or Promoters of ACMIIL and/or the relatives of promoters and/or employees of ACMIIL may have interest/position, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency we have incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should however not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report

Disclosure of Interest MARKET PULSE - AUGUST 20141. Analyst ownership of the stock NO

2. Broking Relationship with the company covered NO

3. Investment Banking relationship with the company covered NO

4. Discretionary Portfolio Management Services NO

This document has been prepared by the Resea rch Desk of Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. and is meant for use of the recipient only and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We may from time to time have positions in and buy and sell securities referred to herein. SEBI Regn No: BSE INB 010607233 (Cash); INF 010607233 (F&O), NSE INB 230607239 (Cash); INF 230607239 (F&O)

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