market overview global investment in european micro-/nano electronics penn... · 2015-11-10 ·...

Market Overview – Global Investment

In European Micro-/Nano Electronics

Malcolm Penn – Chairman & CEO Future Horizons

Entering 2015

13 Quarters Of Unit Growth

Yet Received Industry Wisdom Was: “The Market Is Lousy”

Be Careful What You Wish For … By Q2-2015 The Market Had Tanked(The 3-Year Boom Was Over, It Passed Many Firms By)

8 Quarters Of ASP Growth

High Foundry Fab Utilisation Rates

Negligible (Non-Seasonal) Inventory Build

Low Levels Of Cap Ex Spend (Build To Order)

10% 2014 SC Sales Growth … 8.2% CAGR 2009-14 (By Value)

“It’s The Economy, Stupid” … Dark Clouds Are Everywhere(Emerging Market Slowdown / Interest Rate Rises / Currencies / Stock Markets / Election)

© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights ReservedSlide 2

Current Market Outlook – 2015-16

Q uarter Nov 2015 Value

Q1-15 -4.9% 83.108

Q2 1.0% 83.977

Q3 1.5% 85.232

Q4 -2.0% 83.527

2015 0.0% 335.843

Q uarter Nov 2015 Value

Q1-16 -1.5% 82.274

Q2 1.5% 83.508

Q3 4.4% 87.182

Q4 -1.0% 86.311

2016 1.0% 339.275

Q4 Will Not Affect 2015 By Much … But It Will Impact 2016

© Future Horizons, 2015

All Rights Reserved

© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved

Fundamentals – Unchanged & Strong

0%

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Perc

ent O

f SC

Sal

es

Total SC Equipmant Sales % Total SC Sales 16.5% Trend Line

IC Unit Growth IC ASP

CapEx

Source: WSTS / SEMI

-40%

-30%

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-On

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IC U

nit R

un R

ate

(Bill

ions

/Wee

k)

Monthly IC Unit Shipments(5-Week Month Adjusted)

© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved Slide 4

Patterns Of Economic Challenge

Performance

Improving IC performance but without reducing costs does not

generate sufficient new revenues

Profits

Insufficient revenues in turn will not generate enough profits to pay for

the next round of investments

Scale

Failure to achieve a certain size (scale) means eventual inability to stay

in business


Patterns Of SC Innovation

Disruptive Innovation

Invention Of Transistor (Shockley, Bardeen, Brattain: 1947)

Invention Of The IC (Kilby: 1958 / Noyce: 1959)

Microprocessor Development (Faggin, Shima, Hoff, Mazor: 1971)

Exponential Innovation

Moore’s Law (Gordon Moore: 1965)

Cyclical Innovation

Makimoto’s Wave (Tsugio Makimoto: 1991)


What Next?

Disruptive Innovation

Post-CMOS Scaling (Materials & Structures)

Biological ICs/Systems (Grown Inside The Final Package)

Quantum Computing (When We Finally Figure Out How)

Exponential Innovation

Moore’s Law Is Dead (28nm Was The Last Node)

Shame No-one Told TSMC/Samsung (For Them It’s Accelerated)

Cyclical Innovation

2017 Cross Over Point … HFSI (Highly Flexible Super Integration)?

Driven By Same Reasons (SoC Design Cost & Fragmented Market)

Technological Breakthroughs (Multi-functions & HP NVRAM)


Makimoto’s Wave Extension

'17

SoC/SiP‘２7

Highly

Flexible

Super

Integration

HFSIStandard

Discrete

CustomLSI

MPU &Memory

ASIC

FieldProgram-mability

Standardization

Customization

'67 '77 '87 '97

'57

'07

Source: Dr. Tsugio Makimoto

Slide 8© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved

Process Evolution Remains Key

*14nm A9 (Samsung) 96mm2 / 16nm A9X (TSMC) 105mm2

A9

A9X*

Slide 9

With 10nm Just Around The Corner (Some Firms Are Leapfrogging 14nm!)

& 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, 2,25nm, 1.8nm & 1.3nm All Well Understood


FD-SOI … Hype vs Reality

Keys To Success Moving Forward:

Downplay the flawed ‘alternative to

FinFET’ Hype … It’s NOT

Re-brand the process – Mixed Signal

Optimized Silicon or similar – to focus

on its real process strengths

Target profitable niches (advanced

mixed signal, high-performance and

ultra low-power) where FinFET fails

Target technology as a compliment

not competitor to FinFET, just as with

ARC (Synopsys) vs. ARM MPU cores


MEMS Product Examples

Microphone

Source: Knowles/ChipWorks

InkJet Print Head RF Switching

Source: IOPSource: STM Source: InvenSense

Camera Focusing

Source: Freescale

10-Axis Gyroscope Pressure Sensor

Source: OmronD

Source: Future Horizons (2015 MEMS Market Update Report)

Slide 11© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved

MEMS Market Growth By Application

Segment Expected Growth

(Value) in 2015

Market Leader(s)

Mobile Positive STM, Knowles, Avago, Bosch

MEMS Microphones +5% Knowles

R.F. Switches and Tuning Positive Avago

Combination Smart Sensors Positive STM

Gyroscopes Negative STM

Magnetometers Negative AKM

Accelerometers Negative Bosch

6 Axis Inertia MEMS Positive InvenSense

6 Axis E-Compass Positive Bosch

Pressure Sensors Zero STM

Automotive Positive Bosch, Sensata, Denso, Freescale

Printer Zero Hewlett Packard, Canon, TI

HDD Zero STM

Aerospace Slowly Positive Freescale, Amphenol, Honeywell

Medical Positive STM

Industrial Positive Bosch, Panasonic

Other Consumer Positive (slowly) STM

Total Market ($12b) +15% Bosch, STM, TI


Source: Future Horizons (2015 MEMS Market Update Report)

Decade SC 1.0 SC 2.0 SC 3.0 SC 4.0 SC 5.0 SC 6.0 SC 7.0

Rank 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 1H-2015

1 Hughes TI TI NEC Intel Intel Intel

2 Transitron Motorola Motorola TI NEC Samsung Samsung

3 Philco Fairchild Philips Motorola Toshiba TI TSMC

4 Sylvania GE NSC Hitachi Hitachi Toshiba Qualcomm

5 TI RCA Intel Toshiba Motorola ST SK-Hynix

6 GE Sprague NEC Fujitsu Samsung Infineon Micron

7 RCA Philco/Ford Hitachi Philips TI Renesas TI

8 Westinghouse Philips Fairchild Intel IBM TSMC Toshiba

9 Motorola Transitron RCA NSC Mitsubishi Sony Broadcom

10 Clevite Raytheon GE Matsushita Philips Philips MediaTek

Market $0.08b $1.5b $4.0b $21.5b $144b $227b $342b

Driver Discretes Std Logic MOS CMOS MPU SoC ASSPs

Region 2005 1H-2015

US 2 5

Japan 3 1

SE Asia 2 4

Europe 3 0

No Change New Entries Dropped Out

Intel TSMC ST

Samsung Qualcomm Infineon

SK-Hynix Philips

Micron Renesas

Broadcom Sony

MediaTek

SC 7.0 … Winners & Losers

10 Years Is A Lifetime In The Chip Industry …

You Need To Constantly Re-Invent Yourself (& Your Customer Base)

2015 ... Finally Europe’s Starting To Fight Back!

- Infineon Bought IR

- NXP Bought Freescale

- But Not Yet ST (Still In Deep Trouble & Losing Share)

But Comeback’s Still Not Enough Scale To Make 10/100/20 Goals


Airbus Of Chips & The ELG

“The Strategy Will Focus On Three Complementary Lines:”

Making Chips Cheaper (Transitioning To 450mm Wafers)

Making Chips Faster ("More Moore")

Making Chips Smarter ("More Than Moore“)

Commission VP Neelie Kroes, May 2013

Jan 30, 2014

ELG Report (One Month Late)Watered Down Rehash

Of 10/100/20 Strategy

Jun 26, 2014

ELG Report 2 (Five Months Later)450mm, ‘More Moore’ &

20% Goals Dropped


EU Chip Firms CapEx & R&D ROI

Growth vs Investment Spend

Toshiba

1.47

Broadcom

7.50Intel

1.63

ST

1.01

Ind Avg

1.49

Infineon

0.77

Qualcomm

14.17

TI

1.53

NXP

0.84

Micron

3.99

TSMC

3.73 Samsung

3.25 Hynix

3.74

15%

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40%

45%

50%

55%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Inv

estm

ent

Sp

end

(%

Sa

les)

Wouldn’t Be So Bad If Europe Was Doing Well …

Europe’s SC Chip ROI Is The Worst In The World

$100b In Lost Sales Since 2002 Peak

$1t In Lost European GDP Creation

Source: WSTS / Company Data


IPCEI … “Business As Usual?”

We’ve All Heard Of “Moore’s Law”

Then We Focused On “More Than Moore”

Now We Have “Please Can I Have More” …

With Few Exceptions (IQE?) Current IPCEIs Are All Extrapolations

Where Are The New Ideas & Where Are The New Companies?

If The Current Guard Won’t Get Us There, Time For New Players?

No Problem With Individual Firms Following Their Own Agenda

But If These Won’t Fulfil Europe’s Broader Goals. Surely Fresh

Blood & Fresh Thinking vs. Lockdown Is Required?

Do We Not Also Need A Rethink On The Funding Mechanisms?


Forward-Looking Funding Mechanisms

KET Pilot Lines (ECSEL-IA) have bridged the HLWG R&D to pilot production gap

EFSI (European Fund for Strategic Investments) is now a vehicle for bridging the final

gap of establishing full production facilities in Europe

Due to the high investment costs for an advanced 300mm (450mm) fab, there is a real

danger (a) the cost is unaffordable and (b) the programme is viewed as (and becomes)

a ‘defacto alternative (new) subsidy vehicle’

To avoid this we believe future programmes, including EFSI, should be designed to

directly support the commercialisation of European research with radical new thinking

on future EU semiconductor company funding

Key to this thinking is the adoption of Airbus RLI (Reimbursable Launch Investment)

concept for taking new technology from design to production

Repayable loans (paid for as a levy on future sales) vs. grants would potentially

revolutionise and transform Europe’s chip industry


The Raspberry Pi and other initiatives have been a great success

Plenty of enthusiastic future software engineers coming through

But what about the hardware this S/W runs on ????

Who will design the ‘Pi’ for the next generation ?

Who will design the ARM A97 core and the rest of the SoC ?

Who will design the 3nm process and beyond

Who will design the ASML litho machine optics to fab this

Who will design the resists and etchants

Who will design the EDA tools (needs H/W know-how)

It’s hard enough for startups to get involved with the newer semi nodes so what chance do schools

and universities have?

Don’t Ignore Hardware Education?


Panel Discussion


Next Steps In 10/100/20

Contact Details – www.futurehorizons.com

Future Horizons Ltd

44 Bethel Road

Sevenoaks, Kent

TN13 3UE, England

T: +44 (0)1732 740440

F: +44 (0)1732 464270

E: [email protected]

Regional Offices In The UK & Russia

Affiliates In Europe, India, Israel, Japan, Russia & USA

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Please E-Mail/Contact Future Horizons For A Copy Of This Presentation


market overview global investment in european micro-/nano electronics penn... · 2015-11-10 ·...

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