market overview - landsbankinn.is · 2020. 6. 15. · equity 3 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0 100 200 300...
TRANSCRIPT
Market overview15 June 2020
Equity
2
-9.1%-8.4%-7.6%-6.7%-6.4%-5.9%-5.9%-5.7%-4.4%-4.1%-4.0%-3.8%-3.3%-3.0%-2.9%-2.7%-1.8%-1.2%-1.1%
0.0%
-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%
IcelandairMarel
VÍSTMSýn
SjóváArion
EikReitir
SíminnHagar
FestiReginn
EimskipSkeljungur
KvikaIceland Seafood
BrimOrigo
Heimavellir
1W %
-73.5%-31.4%-29.9%-27.4%-27.4%-22.4%-17.7%-15.8%-13.5%-10.4%
-9.8%-2.3%
1.9%2.4%4.2%7.0%7.9%9.6%10.0%29.2%
-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
IcelandairEimskip
ArionSýn
ReitirReginn
Iceland SeafoodEik
KvikaTMVÍS
FestiSjóvá
SkeljungurBrim
MarelOrigoHagar
SíminnHeimavellir
YTD %
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
OMXI8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Volume
Turnover 30d. ma
ISK bn. /day
YTD 1W 1M 3M 12MOMXI8 1931.0 7,803 -9.0% -6.8% 0.8% 14.8% -6.2%
Marel 646.0 1,524 7.0% -8.4% 0.2% 34.0% 18.7%
Icelandair 2.0 34 -73.5% -9.1% 30.7% -48.2% -81.9%
Eimskip 130.0 3.2 -31.4% -3.0% -3.0% -11.6% -31.8%
Brim 39.7 20.6 4.2% -1.2% -0.7% 6.7% 23.3%
Iceland Seafood 8.2 231 -17.7% -1.8% 7.9% 13.5% -11.2%
Hagar 48.0 423 9.6% -4.0% -2.0% 12.9% 17.4%
Festi 126.5 617 -2.3% -3.8% 3.7% 22.8% 5.0%
Skeljungur 8.2 356 2.4% -2.9% 3.5% 11.4% 2.8%
Sýn 25.4 33 -27.4% -6.4% -7.5% -7.3% -29.4%
Síminn 5.8 460 10.0% -4.1% -3.0% 20.2% 32.8%
Origo 28.0 2 7.9% -1.1% 14.1% 33.3% 9.9%
Arion 60.5 1,945 -29.9% -5.9% 4.1% -7.2% -23.0%
Kvika 9.2 591 -13.5% -2.7% 10.2% 14.4% -19.9%
Sjóvá 19.1 543 1.9% -5.9% 0.0% 30.5% 2.7%
VÍS 9.8 307 -9.8% -7.6% -2.1% 16.4% -23.8%
TM 31.8 206 -10.4% -6.7% 3.8% 28.2% -6.6%
Reginn 16.9 182 -22.4% -3.3% -3.7% -7.1% -23.7%
Reitir 51.5 218 -27.4% -4.4% -2.9% -9.9% -37.9%
Eik 6.9 106 -15.8% -5.7% -1.7% 6.6% -23.9%
Heimavellir 1.5 1.3 29.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.7%
Volume
(ISK m.)PriceTicker
Past performance
Adjusted for dividends. Source: Kodiak, Landsbankinn Economic Research
Equity
3
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Marel
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Icelandair
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0
50
100
150
200
250
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Eimskip
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Brim
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Hagar
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Festi
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Skeljungur
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Sýn
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Iceland Seafood
Equity
4
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Origo
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Sjóvá
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
TM
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
VÍS
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Reginn
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Reitir
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
20
40
60
80
100
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Arion
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Kvika
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Síminn
Equity
5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Heimavellir
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Eik
12.jún YTD 1W 1M 3M 12M
TWI 197.7 10.0% 2.0% -5.2% 3.0% 6.5%
EUR 152.1 12.0% 2.1% -4.2% 3.0% 7.6%
USD 134.5 11.0% 2.3% -8.3% 2.3% 7.7%
GBP 169.6 6.4% 2.2% -6.3% 1.3% 6.5%
SEK 14.5 11.4% 1.4% -3.1% 6.2% 9.5%
DKK 20.4 12.2% 2.2% -4.1% 3.2% 7.8%
NOK 14.0 1.8% -0.6% -2.0% 6.3% -2.9%
JPY 1.25 12.2% 4.0% -8.3% -1.2% 8.6%
Central Bank of Iceland fixing. Source: Kodiak
ISK exchange rate Change since ...
Foreign exchange
6
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
GVT
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
EUR/ISK
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
USD/ISK
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
GBP/ISK
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
DKK/ISK
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
NOK/ISK
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
JPY/ISK
Treasury bonds
7
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
RIKB 21 0805 RIKB 22 1026 RIKB 25 0612 RIKB 28 1115 RIKB 31 0124
Yield curve
12.6.20 5.6.20 12.6.19
%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Nominal bonds
RIKB 21 0805 RIKB 22 1026 RIKB 25 0612
RIKB 28 1115 RIKB 31 0124
%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020
Inflation indexed bonds
RIKS 21 0414 RIKS 26 0216
RIKS 30 0701 RIKS 33 0321
%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Break even inflation rate
RIKB 22 - RIKS 21 RIKB 28 - RIKS 26 RIKB31 -RIKS 30
%
YTD 1W 1M 3M 12M
RIKB 21 0805 102.55 1.23 0.6 -1.84 -0.07 -0.80 -0.97
RIKB 22 1026 113.56 1.37 2.2 -1.90 0.01 -0.59 -0.89 -2.49
RIKB 25 0612 128.79 1.90 3.0 -1.47 -0.02 -0.32 -0.57 -2.01
RIKB 28 1115 119.49 2.41 2.5 -1.03 -0.05 -0.07 -0.13 -1.61
RIKB 31 0124 138.00 2.40 2.3 -1.04 -0.07 -0.09 -0.18 -1.61
RIKS 21 0414 103.42 -0.32 0.5 -1.51 -0.02 -0.33 -0.35 -1.29
RIKS 26 0216 109.46 -0.16 2.2 -1.09 -0.10 -0.25 -0.16 -1.15
RIKS 30 0701 130.90 0.15 0.8 -0.80 -0.06 -0.14 0.01 -0.82
RIKS 33 0321 133.56 0.31 0.0 -0.88 0.00 -0.09 -0.21 -0.81
Source: Kodiak
Price Yield Volume
(ISK bn.)
Change in yield ...
Treasury bond auctions
8
Date Ticker
6.5.20 RIKB 21 0805 19.5 3.6 102.53 1.270
6.5.20 RIKB 28 1115 4.7 3.5 119.50 2.410
8.5.20 RIKB 25 0612 3.3 2.8 127.63 2.190
8.5.20 RIKB 28 1115 1.4 1.1 119.60 2.420
17.4.20 RIKB 21 0805 25.5 10.0 101.75 2.100
3.4.20 RIKB 21 0805 17.3 11.6 101.75 2.140
3.4.20 RIKS 26 0216 3.3 3.1 106.85 0.318
All amounts nominal value (ISK bn.). Source: Government Debt Management
Last auctions Bids
recieved
Amount
allocatedPrice Yield
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
RIKB 21
0805
RIKB 22
1026
RIKB 25
0612
RIKB 28
1115
RIKB 31
0124
RIKS 21
0414
RIKS 26
0216
RIKS 30
0701
RIKS 33
0321
Outstanding amount
ISK bn.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Year to date issuance
RIKB 21 0805 RIKB 25 0612
RIKB 28 1115 RIKS 26 0216
Accumilated YtD (r-axis) Planned issuance (r-axis)
ISK bn. ISK bn.
26.8
3.65.5
0.0
3.6
39.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
RIKB 21
0805
RIKB 25
0612
RIKB 28
1115
RIKS 26
0216
RIKS 33
0321
Total
Q2 issuance
Prospectus Issuance
ISK bn.
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
12.6.2019 12.9.2019 12.12.2019 12.3.2020 12.6.2020
Yield
RIKB 21 0805 RIKB 25 0612 RIKB 28 1115
RIKS 21 0414 RIKS 26 0216
%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Owners of T-bils
Banks Misc. credit undert. Mutual and inv. funds Others
ISK bn.
Treasury bill auctions
9
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
Simple interest rate (average)
-50
0
50
100
150
200Amount outstanding
On maturity between auctions Other bids
Allocation Amount outstanding
ISK bn.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
RIKV 200615
RIKV 200715
RIKV 200805
sep. '20 RIKV 201005
RIKV 201116
RIKV 201215
RIKV 210115
Amount outstanding
ISK bn
Date Accepted Yield
28.05.20 22.9 1.250
28.05.20 20.9 1.310
11.05.20 35.0 2.153
29.04.20 25.6 2.192
29.04.20 RIKV 20 1116 6.6 2.075
30.03.20 RIKV 20 0513 20.5 2.226
30.03.20 RIKV 20 0715 15.3 2.118
30.03.20 RIKV 21 0115 18.0 2.199
Heimild: Lánamál ríkisins
Ticker
RIKV 20 0615
RIKV 20 0805
RIKV 20 1005
RIKV 20 1205
Owners of Treasury bonds
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Owners of T-bonds 31 May 2020
Banks Mutual and inv. funds Pension funds Banks Others Foreign investors
ISK bn.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Change between 30 April to 31 May
Foreign investors Pension funds Mutual and inv. funds Banks Firms Others
ISK bn.
RIKB 22 RIKB 25 RIKB 28 RIKB 31 RIKS 21 RIKS 26 RIKS 30 RIKS 33 Total
Banks 13.5 2.8 4.2 4.0 4.7 1.3 0.7 0.0 31.2
Mutual and inv. funds 14.9 16.2 8.1 4.9 17.5 9.1 12.7 5.4 88.9
Pension funds 23.1 45.9 33.1 47.3 12.2 4.0 44.2 11.2 221.1
Firms 5.7 9.5 5.3 6.1 2.7 5.3 2.0 1.5 38.1
Others 9.1 4.9 3.7 3.0 24.2 6.1 14.5 14.9 80.3
Foreign investors 15.1 15.7 14.0 29.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 1.2 76.7
Total 81.4 95.1 68.4 95.3 62.2 25.8 74.1 34.2 536.4
Source: Government Debt Management
Owners of T-bonds
Outstanding Security Lending
11
-1
0
1
7.06.19 6.09.19 6.12.19 6.03.20 5.06.20
RIKB 20 0205
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
7.06.19 6.09.19 6.12.19 6.03.20 5.06.20
RIKB 21 0805
-1
0
1
2
7.06.19 6.09.19 6.12.19 6.03.20 5.06.20
RIKB 22 1026
-1
0
1
2
7.06.19 6.09.19 6.12.19 6.03.20 5.06.20
RIKB 25 0603
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
7.06.19 6.09.19 6.12.19 6.03.20 5.06.20
RIKB 28 1115
-2
-1
0
1
2
7.06.19 6.09.19 6.12.19 6.03.20 5.06.20
RIKB 31 0124
-2
-1
0
1
2
7.06.19 6.09.19 6.12.19 6.03.20 5.06.20
RIKS 21 0414
-1
0
1
2
7.06.19 6.09.19 6.12.19 6.03.20 5.06.20
RIKS 30 0701
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
RIKB 210805
RIKB 221026
RIKB 250612
RIKB 281115
RIKB 310124
RIKS 210414
RIKS 260216
RIKS 300701
Last two weeks
29.05.20 05.06.20
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
7.06.19 6.09.19 6.12.19 6.03.20 5.06.20
RIKS 26 0216
Security 1W 4W 12W 26W 52W
RIKB 21 0805 0 0 0 -440 -343 0
RIKB 22 1026 400 0 -270 200 -350 100
RIKB 25 0612 700 -100 660 100 -50 700
RIKB 28 1115 0 0 -260 -766 -950 -1,150
RIKB 31 0124 1,370 50 870 190 1,020 520
RIKS 21 0414 0 0 0 0 0 -1,500
RIKS 26 0216 2,840 460 1,105
RIKS 30 0701 585 105 285 -415 -165 -495
Source: Government Debt Management
ChangeNominal
(ISK m.)
12
Issuer: Landsbankinn Economic Research – [email protected]
The contents and form of this document were produced by employees of Landsbankinn Economic Research and are based on information
available to the public when the analysis was compiled. Assessment of this information reflects the views of Economic Research’s employees on
the analysis date, which may change without notice.
Neither Landsbankinn hf. nor its personnel can be held responsible for transactions based on the information and opinions expressed here.
Attention should be drawn to the fact that Landsbankinn hf. may, at any time, have direct or indirect interests at stake either on its own behalf or
through its subsidiaries or customers, for instance as an investor, creditor or service provider. Nonetheless, all analyses are prepared
independently by Landsbankinn Economic Research and in accordance with the bank’s rules on separation of activities accessible on the
Landsbankinn website.