vocus group limited asx code: voc price: $3.98 …...dps ¢ 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.0 yield % 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.3...

2
Business Summary Vocus Group Limited (VOC, formerly Vocus Communications Limited) is a leading telecommunications provider of Internet, Fibre, Data Centres and Unified Communications across Australia and New Zealand. It provides high performance, high availability, and highly scalable communications solutions, which allow enterprises and service providers to quickly and easily deploy services for their own use and for their own customer base. Vocus Dark Fibre: Vocus Dark Fibre is a premium point-to-point connectivity solution that provides a secure, scalable way to deliver multi-gigabit speed services and allows to control the speed as an when business needs it. Vocus Dark Fibre is available in Sydney, Melbourne, Newcastle, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide. Vocus IP Transit: Vocus IP Transit solutions provide dedicated, carrier grade access with built in protection from Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks. VOC's main network route is carried via the Southern Cross Cable AUS/NZ/USA undersea cable. In addition, VOC has a separate low latency connection to Singapore and onwards to Asia and Europe. Vocus Ethernet: Vocus offers Metro, National and International Carrier Grade Ethernet services. Vocus Ethernet provides services that are designed to support real time applications such as Video and Voice and are suited for converged networks. Vocus Wholesale DSL: VOC offers wholesale layer 2 and 3 DSL services. Vocus layer 2 DSL services provide access to both iinet's and Telstra's DSLAM coverage. Vocus layer 3 DSL services provide a DSL services bundled with IP transit. Vocus Wholesale Voice: VOC offers wholesale voice services which includes: CTS (Call Termination Service), Number Allocation, Number Portability, E1 and IP Access and Carrier Interconnect. Acquisition On 26 October 2016, Vocus completed the acquisition of Nextgen Networks and two associated development projects, the North West Cable System Project and the Australia Singapore Cable Project. Latest Research One year into a three year growth story Real earnings growth will need to wait until FY21 — VOC has delivered a solid 1H19 result and is making good progress in its turnaround. The company still faces significant challenges in the Commander and Consumer divisions and these are likely to weigh on earnings in the near term. In the longer term we see accelerating earnings potential from Enterprise & Wholesale as the Consumer/Commander headwinds subside. We have upgraded EPS by 2% in FY20-21 reflecting the improving earnings mix and our target price increases by +7% to $3.90/share as we factor in stronger longer term earnings from E&W. We retain our Neutral rating. For more information see research 28 Feb 2019. GICS - Telco Services Vocus Group Limited ASX Code: VOC Price: $3.98 12 Mth Target Price: $3.90 Rating: Neutral Important Disclaimer - This may affect your legal rights: Because this document has been prepared without consideration of any specific client's financial situation, particular needs and investment objectives, a Bell Potter Securities Limited investment adviser (or the financial services licensee, or the proper authority of such licensee, who has provided you with this report by arrangement with Bell Potter Securities Limited) should be consulted before any investment decision is made. While this document is based on the information from sources which are considered reliable, Bell Potter Securities Limited, its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate. Nor does Bell Potter Securities Limited accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect any of the information contained in this document. This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Potter Securities Limited. This is general investment advice only and does not constitute advice to any person. Disclosure of Interest: Bell Potter Securities Limited receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in this commission. Bell Potter Securities and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended. Snapshot Date Market Cap. Shares on issue 12 Month High 12 Month Low 8 May 2019 $2,477m 622.3m $4.07 $2.21 Rating Rating 12 Mth Target Price Capital Gain Gross Yield Implied Total Return Neutral $3.90 -1.5% 1.1% -0.4% Investment Fundamentals FYE 30 Jun 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Profit $m 127.0 104.0 111.0 125.0 Profit (norm)* $m 127.0 104.0 111.0 125.0 EPS* ¢ 20.0 17.0 18.0 20.0 EPS Growth % -20.0 -15.0 5.9 11.1 P/E* x 19.8 23.3 22.0 19.8 P/E Relative % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DPS ¢ 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.0 Yield % 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.3 Franking % 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 * Adjusted for goodwill and unusual items Source: Based on Citi estimates Share Price Chart Total Return on $10,000 Investment

Upload: others

Post on 22-Jun-2020

18 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Vocus Group Limited ASX Code: VOC Price: $3.98 …...DPS ¢ 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.0 Yield % 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.3 Franking % 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 * Adjusted for goodwill and unusual items Source:

Business SummaryVocus Group Limited (VOC, formerly Vocus Communications Limited) is aleading telecommunications provider of Internet, Fibre, Data Centres andUnified Communications across Australia and New Zealand. It provides highperformance, high availability, and highly scalable communications solutions,which allow enterprises and service providers to quickly and easily deployservices for their own use and for their own customer base.

Vocus Dark Fibre: Vocus Dark Fibre is a premium point-to-point connectivitysolution that provides a secure, scalable way to deliver multi-gigabit speedservices and allows to control the speed as an when business needs it.Vocus Dark Fibre is available in Sydney, Melbourne, Newcastle, Brisbane,Perth and Adelaide.

Vocus IP Transit: Vocus IP Transit solutions provide dedicated, carriergrade access with built in protection from Distributed Denial of Service(DDoS) attacks. VOC's main network route is carried via the Southern CrossCable AUS/NZ/USA undersea cable. In addition, VOC has a separate lowlatency connection to Singapore and onwards to Asia and Europe.

Vocus Ethernet: Vocus offers Metro, National and International CarrierGrade Ethernet services. Vocus Ethernet provides services that are designedto support real time applications such as Video and Voice and are suited forconverged networks.

Vocus Wholesale DSL: VOC offers wholesale layer 2 and 3 DSL services.Vocus layer 2 DSL services provide access to both iinet's and Telstra'sDSLAM coverage. Vocus layer 3 DSL services provide a DSL servicesbundled with IP transit.

Vocus Wholesale Voice: VOC offers wholesale voice services whichincludes: CTS (Call Termination Service), Number Allocation, NumberPortability, E1 and IP Access and Carrier Interconnect.

Acquisition On 26 October 2016, Vocus completed the acquisition ofNextgen Networks and two associated development projects, the North WestCable System Project and the Australia Singapore Cable Project.

Latest ResearchOne year into a three year growth story

Real earnings growth will need to wait until FY21 — VOC has delivered asolid

1H19 result and is making good progress in its turnaround. The companystill faces significant challenges in the Commander and Consumerdivisions and these are likely to weigh on earnings in the near term. In thelonger term we see accelerating earnings potential from Enterprise &Wholesale as the Consumer/Commander headwinds subside. We haveupgraded EPS by 2% in FY20-21 reflecting the improving earnings mix andour target price increases by +7% to $3.90/share as we factor in strongerlonger term earnings from E&W. We retain our Neutral rating.

For more information see research 28 Feb 2019.

GICS - Telco Services

Vocus Group Limited

ASX Code: VOC Price: $3.98 12 Mth Target Price: $3.90 Rating: Neutral

Important Disclaimer - This may affect your legal rights: Because this document has been prepared without consideration of any specific client's financial situation, particular needs and investmentobjectives, a Bell Potter Securities Limited investment adviser (or the financial services licensee, or the proper authority of such licensee, who has provided you with this report by arrangement withBell Potter Securities Limited) should be consulted before any investment decision is made. While this document is based on the information from sources which are considered reliable, Bell PotterSecurities Limited, its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate.Nor does Bell Potter Securities Limited accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect any of the information contained in this document.This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Potter Securities Limited. This is generalinvestment advice only and does not constitute advice to any person.Disclosure of Interest: Bell Potter Securities Limited receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in thiscommission. Bell Potter Securities and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended.

Snapshot

DateMarket Cap.Shares on issue12 Month High12 Month Low

8 May 2019$2,477m622.3m$4.07$2.21

RatingRating12 Mth Target Price

Capital GainGross Yield

Implied Total Return

Neutral$3.90-1.5%1.1%-0.4%

Investment FundamentalsFYE 30 Jun 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F

Profit $m 127.0 104.0 111.0 125.0Profit (norm)* $m 127.0 104.0 111.0 125.0

EPS* ¢ 20.0 17.0 18.0 20.0EPS Growth % -20.0 -15.0 5.9 11.1P/E* x 19.8 23.3 22.0 19.8P/E Relative % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

DPS ¢ 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.0Yield % 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.3Franking % 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0* Adjusted for goodwill and unusual itemsSource: Based on Citi estimates

Share Price Chart

Total Return on $10,000 Investment

Page 2: Vocus Group Limited ASX Code: VOC Price: $3.98 …...DPS ¢ 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.0 Yield % 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.3 Franking % 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 * Adjusted for goodwill and unusual items Source:

Profit & Loss ($M)2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A

Sales Revenue 92 149 830 1,821 1,898Total Revenue ex. Int. 92 162 851 1,821 1,892EBITDA 33 57 235 361 368Depreciation & Amort. -12 -19 -78 -194 -230Goodwill Amortisation -- -- -- -- --EBIT 21 38 156 168 138Net Interest -2 -5 -24 -41 -41Profit Before Tax 20 33 133 127 97Income Tax -6 -8 -28 -34 -31Outside Equity Int. -- -- -0 -- --Profit after Tax 14 25 105 93 66Significant Items after Tax -1 -5 -41 -1,558 -5Reported Profit after Tax 13 20 64 -1,465 61Preferred Dividends -- -- -- -- --

Cash Flow ($M)2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A

Receipts from Customers 99 156 863 1,886 1,850Funds from Operations 34 47 167 191 324Net Operating Cashflow 31 43 136 131 252Capex -24 -35 -98 -219 -219Acquisitions & Investments -8 -54 35 -801 -2Sale of Invest. & Subsid. -- -- 20 -- --Net Investing Cashflow -32 -86 -43 -1,013 -221Proceeds from Issues 52 1 1 673 --Dividends Paid -1 -2 -51 -61 --Net Financing Cashflow 32 14 21 803 -24Net Increase Cash 30 -29 113 -78 8Cash at Beginning 14 45 15 129 50Exchange Rate Adjust. -- -- -- -- --Cash at End 45 15 129 50 58

Ratios and Substantial Shareholders2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A

Profitability RatiosEBITDA Margin % 36.05 38.37 28.30 19.84 19.38EBIT Margin % 23.28 25.83 18.85 9.20 7.29Net Profit Margin % 14.85 16.63 12.62 5.10 3.49Return on Equity % 9.94 12.62 3.30 4.03 2.81Return on Assets % 7.22 7.57 2.60 3.00 2.30

Debt/Safety RatiosNet Debt/Equity % 3.85 53.28 23.86 44.69 42.54Interest Cover x 11.73 7.29 6.63 4.10 3.38

Top 5 Substantial ShareholdersChallenger Limited 8.2%Greencape Capital Pty Ltd 7.2%The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. 5.4%

Balance Sheet ($M)2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A

Cash & Equivalent 45 15 129 50 58Receivables 10 23 144 167 193Inventories -- -- 13 -- --Other Current Assets 2 4 48 110 114Current Assets 56 42 334 327 365Prop. Plant & Equipment 63 205 522 1,543 1,673Intangibles 85 125 3,757 2,212 2,108Other Non-Current Assets 5 4 48 110 114Non-Current Assets 156 341 4,360 3,844 3,864Total Assets 212 383 4,694 4,172 4,229Interest Bearing Debt 50 120 886 1,079 1,059Other Liabilities 25 67 634 789 816Total Liabilities 75 187 1,520 1,868 1,875Net Assets 137 196 3,174 2,303 2,354Share Capital 99 144 3,101 3,775 3,775Reserves 3 4 16 23 12Retained Earnings 36 48 57 -1,494 -1,433Outside Equity Int. -- -- 0 -- --Total Shareholders Equity 137 196 3,174 2,303 2,354

Current Analyst Recommendations *

* Source: Morningstar. This chart shows the spread of recommendations from thosebroker analyst's in Australia with research coverage of this stock.

Principals & DirectorsPrincipals

Company Secretary Ms Ashe-lee Jegathesan

Directors

Mr Robert (Bob) C Mansfield(Non-Executive Director,LeadIndependent Director,Non-Executive Chairman)Mr Bruce John Akhurst(Non-Executive Director)Mr Kevin Steven Russell(Chief Executive Officer,Managing Director)Ms Julie Austa Fahey(Non-Executive Director)Mr John Ho(Non-Executive Director)Mr David Stoddart Wiadrowski(Non-Executive Director)Mr Mark Callander(CEO of Vocus New Zealand,Executive Director)Mr Matthew Paul Hanning(Non-Executive Director)Mr Zhengyan Chua(Alternate Director)

To access further Research or for information regarding our recommendations and ratings please seewww.bellpotter.com.au

© 2019 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Neither Morningstar, its affiliates, nor the content providers guarantee the data or content contained herein to be accurate, complete or timely nor will they have any liabilityfor its use or distribution. Any Morningstar ratings/recommendations contained in this report are based on the full research report available from Morningstar or your adviser. Any general advice or ‘class service’ havebeen prepared by Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892) and/or Morningstar Research Ltd, subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc, without reference to your objectives, financial situation orneeds. Refer to our Financial Services Guide (FSG) for more information at www.morningstar.com.au/s/fsg.pdf. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant ProductDisclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Our publications, ratings and products should be viewed as an additional investment resource, not as your sole source of information. Past performancedoes not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Some material is copyright and published under licence fromASX Operations Pty Ltd ACN 004 523 782.

Vocus Group Limited

Bell Potter Securities Research

AFS Licence No. 243480 ABN 25 006 390 772

Email [email protected]

Website www.bellpotter.com.au