market commentary 1apr12

8/2/2019 Market Commentary 1Apr12

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Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support

Shocker! Nothing really changed with the S&P500 lastweek. Minor support held with resistance and supportlevels unchanged from last week. The wave count up from1202 is still a little mysterious but a “symmetrical” patternwould be my guess. In a symmetrical the waves flowing inthe same direction all have a similar duration and size.

That concept „fits the bill‟ here. If that‟s what is going on,then we should expect one more new high on this move.

In the meantime, stay vigilant with the support levels--breaks of 1378 and 1340 would start to create a true„breakdown‟ in this market.

1202

a

b

c

g

e

d

f

i

h

COPIED from 3/25/12




S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support

This is me yawning at this market. Once again themarket stayed well within our first levels of resistanceand support. I‟ve raised the first level of weekly

support to 1386 as this „feels‟ like a market that mustkeep maintaining even minor support points. 1340 isnear the 38.2% retrace and aligns well with a KEYmarket level.

1202

a

b

c

g?

e

d

f

i

h




S&P 500 ~ Weekly Log Scale

Markets have a memory . 1440 stands out to me becausethere were some good battles around that level. The greenarrows point out moments when the market couldn‟t close

below 1440. The last red arrow is the real highlight as it wasat that point the market started its collapse in earnest--fallingwithout much in the way of a retracement.

1440 is also the 85% retrace of the entire decline from top to bottom. I don’t think 85% is a particularly important retrace

but I know some well known Ellioticians who do pay attention

to that level.



Gold ~ 60 Min. Chart

It‟s possible to count out the decline down from $1,792 as seven legged correction (diametric). Inorder to prove that the decline is over, the market must rally harder than any previous bounce (green

dashed box). In this case, that line comes in around $1,683. Right now gold is rubbing against the23.6% retrace at $1,666--that‟s first level of resistance in the week ahead. $1,683 should beconsidered second level resistance and an important point for the market to better.


a

b

g

f

e

d

c

COPIED from 3/25/12



Gold ~ 120 Min. Chart

Gold rallied hard enough early last week to break through both of our resistance points. The rally wasalso strong enough to suggest that the move down from $1,793 probably concluded. Yet, this marketnow has a little something for both bulls and bears. The move up from $1,627 has an impressive lookthat could be counted as an impulse higher. Good news for bulls, right? Maybe. The problem is that the

last move down from $1,697 also has an impressive look to it. So, this week‟s first and second levels of resistance and support are tight enough that they should be considered for either bullish or bearishtrading strategies. I‟m short term bullish this market and will use $1,659 for my stop-loss level.Bulls/Longs should not be carrying any length below $1,644.

If you want to short this market, please consider $1,685 as your “no mas” point.


$1,793

$1,627

$1,697



Dollar Index (DXY) ~ Daily Continuation

Last week we predicted more downward/sideways price action--the market didnot disappoint. The DXY still looks like it has further to fall on this move.Bears/shorts should consider lowering their stops using 79.57 and 79.95 as firstand second level resistance points. A move down to 77.42 would not be asurprise.


c

- a -

- b -(c)

-c-d

(a)

78.10

(b)



Dollar Index (DXY) ~ 120 Min with Weekly Resistance

We‟ve done a decent job of predicting the DXY move down from the 80.74 peak. Atthis point the market pattern is looking a bit “funny” to me. I don‟t mind continuing tohold “trading” short positions here, but it seems like an “ok” time to tighten up the stops.I would trim shorts on a break of 79.13 and I would be out of all DXY shorts on a break

above 79.35.


- b -80.74



DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. Thisreport is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himselfas a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merelyreflects the author‟s interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positionsopposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained inthis commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but

it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereofand is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involvesrisk and is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has saidabout futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not foreveryone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Beforeyou invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consideryour financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how muchyou can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. Youshould understand commodity futures and options contracts and yourobligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand yourexposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the riskdisclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Wave Symbology

"I" or "A" = Grand SupercycleI or A = Supercycle<I>or <A> = Cycle-I- or -A- = Primary(I) or (A) = Intermediate"1“ or "a" = Minor1 or a = Minute-1- or -a- = Minuette

(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRA- DAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

market commentary 1apr12

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