market commentary 30may11

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Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily non-Log Scale

1040

³x´

d

c

³y´g

1344

Last Sunday we called the price action a ³muddled mess.´ Last week did nothing

to clear the picture. So, let¶s just come to terms with the fact we¶ve seen threecorrective moves in a row beginning at the 1344 high. This concept leads us to atriangle development of some kind, which would be a very bullish ³x´ wavescenario. It¶s potentially bullish because the b-wave exhibited a lot of power relative to the a-wave. So, if all we get is this stunted c-wave (which was exactly61.8% of a-wave), then it sets up for a really powerful thrust higher once thistriangle is complete. Bears are hoping for an ³irregular´ or expanding trianglewhich would allow for a more powerful c-wave lower to continue.

e

f

a

b

a

-a-

-b-

b

-a-

-b-c?

d?

e?³x´




S&P 500 ~ 120 Min. with Weekly Support and Resistance

a

b

-a-

-b-

The movement down from the 1370 has been so ³choppy´ and whipsaw-ish, I¶mhesitant to even give support and resistance levels to consider. The price action doesresemble a bullish ³flag pattern,´ so bears should be cautious of a break of thedowntrend line, or the 1334 level. A move above the downtrend line will likely causeeven more buying pressure.

-a-

-b-

c?

d?




DXY ~ 120 Minute with Weekly Support

Last week we were certain that the DXY would eventually take out 76.00. Unfortunately it became

a bit of a ³bull trap´ as it set a new high on the move up and then failed. The look of this chart is stillconstructive as we look to buy this current dip.

The move up has been labeled a ³Triple Zig-Zag´ because it¶s the most straightforward counting.Dollar bulls can still make a claim for an ³impulsion´ higher. That bullish theory would be that wehad a ³microscopic´ Wave (1). That idea cannot be dismissed because the Wave (5) ended upbeing 38% of the move up, something that is required whenever there is a ³microscopic´ first wave.

Under either scenario, this looks like a market that should be bought in front of the 74 area.

(w)[c]

(x)[a]

[b]

[a]

[b]

(y)[c]

(x)

(z)[c]

[a]

[b]

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)




Gold June Futures: 60 min. with Weekly Support and Resistance

For those who really want to trade some gold, highlighted here are some weekly support andresistance points. The move up onFriday was impressive looking and there is some elements of asmall scale inverted head and shoulder bottom. Labeled below is one possible wave count--theimplication is that ³something´ began at the $1,486/oz level. If that¶s the correct, this market wouldhave no business trading back below $1,497, the 61.8% retrace. So, short term bulls should keepthat level in mind.

-a-

(a)

[e](b)Left

Shoulder

Head

Right Shoulder [a]

[b]

[c]

[d]

[1]?

[2]?

REPRINTED from 5/22/2011




Gold June Futures: 120 min. with Weekly Support and Resistance

Last week¶s wave count gave us the correct short term direction on Gold. We¶re now closing in on an(a)=(c) target at $1,552/oz. It¶s probably time for the day trading longs to be punching a ticket out of this market. The bias is that that this move higher is a -b- wave of yet another triangle; so, thereshould be a better buying opportunity when the -c- wave hits.

-a-

(a)

[e]

(b)

[a]

[b]

[c]

[d]

(c)

-b-




Silver July Futures: 120 min. ~ The Bullish Count

(a)

[1]

(b)

[2]

[3]

[4]

[.5]

[5]

(c)-w-

[.1]

[.2]

[.3]

[.4]

-x-

Top

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)-y-

³a´

³b´

The bullish count would be that we¶re witnessing a ³double combination,´ an -x-wave move that ends in a triangle. This would be quite bullish as it would supportour longer term count that the move down form $50 was only the first leg of a bigtriangle. The next few weeks of trading should give us greater insight into theexact nature of the decline from $50 bucks. In the meantime, some of sort of ³bounce´ higher the next few weeks shouldn¶t surprise. $32.25 - $32.92 is clear support for the bulls--breaking that zone would send Silver down to it¶s nextsupport zone between $29 and $30 fairly quickly.

REPRINTED from 5/22/2011




Silver July Futures: 120 min. ~ The Bullish Count

-w-

-x-

Top

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)-y-

³a´

³b´

Both the ³bullish´ and ³bearish´ counts last week suggested a bounce higher in Silver. Today,only the bullish count will be highlighted. It looks like the ³a´ wave of a triangle concluded at$34.30. The current ³b´ wave should take this market back to the mid $40¶s. Major support isnow $34.30 while major resistance lies just overhead at $39.50.

(a)



DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. Thisreport is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CF A or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merelyreflects the author¶s interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positionsopposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in

this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, butit is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involvesrisk and is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has saidabout futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Beforeyou invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider

your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how muchyou can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. Youshould understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the riskdisclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Wave Symbology

"I" or "A" = Grand SupercycleI or A = Supercycle<I>or <A> = Cycle-I- or -A- = Primary(I) or (A) = Intermediate"1³ or "a" = Minor 1 or a = Minute-1- or -a- = Minuette(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro

PLEASE NOT E TH AT TH ERE I S ADDITION AL INT RA-WEEK AN D INT RA-

DAY DI SCUSS ION ON T EC HNI CAL AN ALYS I S AN D T RADING AT

T RADERS-ANON YM O US .BLOG SP OT.C O M

market commentary 30may11

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