market commentary 14 feb 2011

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 14 FEB 2011 APF Trading MARKET COMMENTARY

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APF Trading Technical Analysis Market Commentary 14 Feb 2011www.apftrading.comwww.asiapacfinance.com

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Page 1: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS14 FEB 2011

APF Trading

MARKET COMMENTARY

Page 2: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

APF Trading

9 Battery Road12F Straits Trading Building

Singapore 049910   

Jay [email protected]

 Glenn Ho

[email protected] 

Website:www.apftrading.com

www.asiapacfinance.com

Page 3: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

S&P 500 INDEX

Page 4: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

S&P 500 INDEX

Bull trend is intact Index stayed well above the Tenkan Sen

and has not touched Kijun Sen since Oct 2010

From Nov 2010 til now, Tenken Sen stayed above Kijun Sen since the last Tenken Sen/Kijun Sen crossover

Chikou Span is above index The current Kumo is thin but thickening

Page 5: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

S&P 500 INDEX

Notice how the Senkou Span A, Senkou Span B (Kumo), Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen all show a rough 45 deg upslope

Index broke the TD Sequential Risk Level at 1257.9801 5 weeks ago on a qualified basis (represented by a solid line) while TD Setup is in early count

Expect a higher chance of a completion of TD Sequential Countdown

Page 6: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

S&P 500 INDEX

Last week’s TD Setup perfection suggests a 1-4 period of correction

High probability of a 1-4 weeks correction which would bring the index level closer to Tenken Sen and Kijun Sen, before continuing the bull trend.

Page 7: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX

Page 8: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX

Dow Jones Index was well supported by a thick Kumo from Jun 2010 to Oct 2010, rallying for another few months now

Chikou Span is well above prices, with the Tenkan Sen above the Kijun Sen and index closed above the Tenken Sen for 21 weeks now

Both the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen angles upwards

Index is well in a bull trend

the index is well in a bull trend.

Page 9: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX

Thin Kumo ahead Weak region of support With the index far above the Kumo, we

are concerned but not placing a high priority to the thin Kumo

First line of defence really is still the Tenkan Sen (Magenta Line) and next the Kijun Sen (Yellow Line)

Current TD Setup had broken up of the TD Sequential Risk Level at 11550.6396

the index is well in a bull trend.

Page 10: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX

This happened early in the count of TD Setup. There is a good chance this sell countdown would be completed

The recent perfected TD sell setup might push the index into a 1-4 bar correction

We expect the index to maintain a bull trend with high probability of a short term correction (1-4 weeks)

the index is well in a bull trend.

Page 11: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX

Page 12: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX

NASDAQ’s curent bull trend is intact with prices staying well above the Kijun Sen for 20 weeks now

Chikou Span is above prices The Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen as well as the Kumo

all angle upwards Bull trend is still in play Watch for a TD Sequential Countdown

completion in coming months First line of defence is the support at Tenkan

Sen

Page 13: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

HANG SENG INDEX

Page 14: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

HANG SENG INDEX

Hang Seng Index is stuck between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen

Otherwise Tenkan Sen is above Kijun Sen, Chikou Span above index and index is trading above support region of Kumo

Note how the Tenken Sen, Kijun Sen and Kumo are in a flat horizontal zone

We expect Hang Seng to trade sideways with first line of support at Kijun Sen (22680.4297). The thin Kumo weeks ahead might not be sufficient support should more bearish signs show up

Page 15: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

NIKKEI 225

Page 16: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

NIKKEI 225

Chikou is above prices Following the Tenkan Sen Kijun Sen bullish crossover on weak

resistance (thin Kumo) Dec 2010, prices stayed above Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen. Prices also stayed above the Kumo

While these are bullish signs, we are cautious due to the structure of the Kumo forming

The Nikkei has been stuck in a trading range for close to 2 years now

Notice how the Kumo twists belly up and belly down while the index just got stuck in the range

The Senkou Span B is flat for months The TD Sequential Risk Level (11390.7402) is expected to be the

resistance level to watch for We expect more sideway action in coming months for the Nikkei

225

Page 17: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE

Page 18: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE Shanghai Index is drifting in the cloud with no clear

directions at the moment Kumo gets thinner, index action is happening inside

the Kumo Wait for clearer gloomy or clear blue skies scenario

before getting more excited A week ago, index was stuck inside the Tenkan Sen

and Kijun Sen. There was a medium strength bearish crossover but the Chikou Span was above prices.

Sideway trading expected to be the path of least resistance. We will get too excited over the Shanghai Index until some further price action takes place.

Page 19: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

KOSPI INDEX

Page 20: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

KOSPI INDEX

Index closed significantly below Tenkan Sen last week Chikou Span has been above prices for months, Tenkan

Sen rising steadily above Kijun Sen. The Kumo is also thickening recently, providing strong support.

Do watch the flat Kijun Sen and Senkou Span B. The next line of defence is the Kijun Sen at 1920.13.

TD Sequential Completion suggest market exhaustion. Index failed to break above the TD Risk Level on a qualified basis.

Overall bull trend intact with a possibility of a pullback.

Page 21: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

Astra International

Page 22: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

Astra International

Astra International completed TD Sequential Sell Countdown in Oct 2010 and prices started coming off, dropping below the Tenkan Sen.

Currently, the Tenkan Sen had crossed below the Kijun Sen, producing a weak bearish crossover with the Kumo providing good support.

Both the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are flat currently. This is aligned to the fact that prices would hit into the Kumo in coming weeks, providing good support.

Monitor the price development in coming weeks. A bounce off the Kumo resulting in a Tenkan Sen Kijun Sen bullish crossover would be a strong bullish crossover.

Page 23: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

GENTING SINGAPORE

Page 24: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

GENTING SINGAPORE

Genting SP has been one of our favourite stock commentary pieces of late

We mentioned weeks back how prices are failing to break above the TD Sequential Risk Level in a qualified basis, aligning with the high probability of a convergence of prices to the Kijun Sen.

Currently we still maintain that view as prices develop. The rubber band effect would bring prices close to Kijun Sen. The Kumo is looking to provide good support for the stock. Watch for a rebound off the Kijun Sen. If that happens, prices would re test the high and also the TD Risk Level at 2.37

Page 25: Market commentary 14 feb 2011

APF Trading is a trading advisory firm offering clients advice on multi-asset trading strategies, signals, trading systems, execution services and trading platforms. The firm also conducts research and technical analysis with a focus on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and DeMark Indicators.