mapping rainwater management strategies at landscape scale nile 3 on targeting and scaling out
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Mapping rainwater management strategies at landscape scale Nile 3 on targeting and scaling out. Overview. Introduction Concepts used (definitions) Modeling framework with illustration Using the maps Up-coming research. Targeting and scaling out tool. Objective - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Mapping rainwater management strategies at landscape scale
Nile 3 on targeting and scaling out
Overview
• Introduction
• Concepts used (definitions)
• Modeling framework with illustration
• Using the maps
• Up-coming research 2
Targeting and scaling out tool
Objective
•Feasibility maps that includes bio-physical and socio-economic criteria
•Landscape approach to rainwater management modeling
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intro concept framework use up-coming
Overview
• Introduction
• Concepts used (definitions)
• Modeling framework with illustration
• Using the maps
• Up-coming research 4
Some definitions
• Rainwater management practice = farmers’ choice to improve water retention or water productivity
• Soil and water conservation (bunds, …)• Water harvesting • Tree (agro-forestry)• Livestock and grassland management• Crops and fertility management
• Intervention = “external actor” to enable a practice change
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Landscape approach to water
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Highland : infiltration ↑
Midlands : SWC ↑
Lowlands : efficiency ↑
Landscape approach to water
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Rainwater management strategy
Zone Cropland Grassland DegradedUplands Increase infiltration
Orchards, multi-purpose trees
Increase the quantity and quality fodder for livestockGrassland management
Rehabilitated degraded landGully rehabilitation
Midlands Increase SWCTerraces, bunds
Lowlands More efficient use waterRiver diversion, wells
Independent Increase water in dry seasonWater harvesting
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intro concept framework use up-coming
Overview
• Introduction
• Concepts used (definitions)
• Modeling framework with illustration
• Using the maps
• Up-coming research 9
Modeling framework
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Mapping RMS at landscape scale
Rainwater management strategy map
Feasibility map
practice B
Feasibility map
practice C
Transformation into spatially explicit variables and threshold definitions
Identification of bio-physical conditions, socio-economic and institutional drivers for each individual practice
(diversion, terraces, trees,…)
Feasibility map
practice A
intro concept framework use up-coming
Modeling framework
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Mapping RMS at landscape scale
Rainwater management strategy map
Feasibility map
practice B
Feasibility map
practice C
Transformation into spatially explicit variables and threshold definitions
Identification of bio-physical conditions, socio-economic and institutional drivers for each individual practice
(diversion, terraces, trees,…)
Feasibility map
practice A
intro concept framework use up-coming
Database of 80 practices
Modeling framework
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Mapping RMS at landscape scale
Rainwater management strategy map
Feasibility map
practice B
Feasibility map
practice C
Transformation into spatially explicit variables and threshold definitions
Identification of bio-physical conditions, socio-economic and institutional drivers for each individual practice
(diversion, terraces, trees,…)
Feasibility map
practice A
intro concept framework use up-coming
Suitability criteria
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Modeling framework
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Mapping RMS at landscape scale
Rainwater management strategy map
Feasibility map
practice B
Feasibility map
practice C
Transformation into spatially explicit variables and threshold definitions
Identification of bio-physical conditions, socio-economic and institutional drivers for each individual practice
(diversion, terraces, trees,…)
Feasibility map
practice A
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Getting single feasibilty mapsBio-physical suitability Willingness to adopt
Feasibility map
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Biophysical suitability maps
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equal weight aggregation
Apple tree Minimum temperature below 10cLuvisol, nitisol, leptosolRainfall >1400 mm
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Adoption maps : Small area estimation technique
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Adoption rule for orchard
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Variable at farm level Orchards Variable at woreda level
household density 0.0184(0.029)
Population density
Landholding 0.2062(0.001)
Average landholding
Average plot size -1.7489(0.000)
Average plot size
Red soil 0.4232(0.020)
Nitisol
Access to advise 0.2378(0.050)
Percent of HH with access to advise
Access to credit -0.2450(0.038)
Percent of farmers with access to credit
Constant -1.1780(0.000)
Constant
Pseudo R-squared 0.07
Adoption rule for SWC
Variable at farm level Soil and water conservation
Variable at woreda level
Landholding -0.3772(0.000)
Average landholding
Landholding squared 0.0324(0.020)
Clay soil -0.3268(0.027)
Vertisols
Access to advise 0.4188(0.000)
Percent of HH with access to advise
Off farm activity 0.2843(0.011)
Agricultural dependency
Hired labor 0.5060(0.000)
percent of HH with hired labor
Constant 0.61510.004
Constant
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Adoption rule for diversionVariable at farm level River diversion Variable at woreda
level household density 0.0092
(0.020)Population density
Landholding 1.2426(0.000)
Average landholding
Landholding squared -0.1488(0.000)
Average plot size -3.6047(0.001)
Average plot size
Hired labor 0.8920(0.000)
percent of HH with hired labor
Time to output market 0.9975(0.005)
Time to market
Time to output market squared
-0.1962(0.043)
Constant -3.2910(0.000)
Constant
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Willingness of adoption maps
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Feasibility maps
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Modeling framework
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Mapping RMS at landscape scale
Rainwater management strategy map
Feasibilty map
practice B
Feasibilty map
practice C
Transformation into spatially explicit variables and threshold definitions
Identification of bio-physical conditions, socio-economic and institutional drivers for each individual practice
(diversion, terraces, trees,…)
Feasibilty map
practice A
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Strategy quantification
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Objective Example quantification
1 Identify landscapes in which sufficient area are suitable in bio-physical terms.
At least 10% of the area is suitable for SWC and terracing and at least 2% of the area is suitable for river diversion
2 Identify landscapes where people are likely to adopt the strategy
The minimum adoption on suitable area of any of the three practices is bigger than 0
3 Identify landscape where sufficient area is feasible both in bio-physical and socio-economic terms.
Combination of the conditions of quantification 1 and quantification 2
Aggregation into strategies at landscape scale
zonal overlay with a landscape layer
Bio-physical map, willingness of adoption map, feasibility map
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intro concept framework use up-coming
Overview
• Introduction
• Concepts used (definitions)
• Modeling framework with illustration
• Using the maps
• Up-coming research 26
Using the maps
• High uncertainty
• Difficulty to validate the maps
• Entry point to start a discussion with community
• Towards an open source GIS tool for policy makers, research centers, NGO, extension service
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intro concept framework use up-coming
Overview
• Introduction
• Concepts used (definitions)
• Modeling framework with illustration
• Using the maps
• Up-coming research 28
Up-coming research
• Map validation in 4 new watersheds • Using the “happy strategy game”• Farm household survey (600 farmers)
• Impact assessment • on hydrology, ecosystem services, livelihoods
• Explorative scenarios
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Practice Biophysical criteria Expected socio-economic and institutional criteria
Apple tree Minimum temperature below 15cLuvisol, nitisol, leptosolRainfall >1400 mm Crop land
Distance to market Land holding size
Mango trees NitisolRainfall > 1400 mmCrop land
Distance to market Land holding size
Multipurpose treeSesbania sesban
Rainfall 500-2000 Crop land, medium and high degradation
Age, Household sizeLand holding sizeRented landLand fragmentationLivestock intensity
Bench terracing Rainfall < 1400mmsoils drainage ≠ poorSlope between 12-58%Crop land
Household sizeHired laborAccess to advice Land fragmentation Agricultural dependencyRented land
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Practice Biophysical criteria Expected socio-economic and institutional criteria
Hillside terracing Rainfall < 900mmslope 10- 50%Crop land
household sizeLand holding size Hired labor Access to advice Land fragmentationAgricultural dependencyRented land
Soil bund rainfall < 1400 mm slope 3-15% on rainfall > 1400mm if graded soil ≠ leptosol soil drainage ≠ poor≠ degraded land
household sizeLand holding size Hired labor Access to advice Land fragmentationAgricultural dependencyRented land
Stone bund slope 5-35%rainfall < 1400 mm and rainfall >1400 if soil = nitisol and if drainage = good (MoRAD) ORsoil type = leptsolsoil texture = medium
household sizeLand holding size Hired labor Access to advice Land fragmentationAgricultural dependencyRented land
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Practice Biophysical criteria Expected socio-economic and institutional criteria
Fanya-juu rainfall > 900mm rainfall <900mm if elevation >1500 slope 3-15%soil = nitisol
Agricultural dependencyLivestock intensityAccess to creditAccess to extension service Landholding per personEducationHousehold size
River diversion 2.5km around perennial riversoil texture = fine
Access to capitalHousehold sizeAccess to adviseAccess to market
Well very shallow + shallow aquifersslope < 35% soil ≠ leptosolNormalized topographic index between 0.8-1
Access to marketAccess to credit Household sizeLandholding size
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Practice Biophysical criteria Expected socio-economic and institutional criteria
Gullies Normalized topographic index between 0.8-1
Informal institution map?
Area exclosure Grassland Informal institution map?
Water harvesting No forest Access to marketAccess to credit Household sizeLandholding size