ANAGEMENT &M DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICSDR. RICK EDGEMAN, PROFESSOR & CHAIR SIX SIGMA BLACK BELTREDGEMAN@UIDAHO.EDU OFFICE: +1-208-885-4410LANNINGPTOOLS

Contemplating Data:Generating & Organizing IdeasBrainstormingNominalGroupTechniqueAffinityDiagramsSeeding theProcessMatrixDiagramsInterrelationshipDigraphsForceFieldAnalysisTree DiagramsManagement & Planning Tools & Methods

Brainstorming

A method for developing creative solutions to problems. It works by focusing on a problem, then deliberately coming up with as many deliberately unusual solutions as possible, then pushing these ideas as far as possible.We may seed the idea generation process by randomly selecting a word pulled from a dictionary.Criticism is not allowed during the brainstorming session. This is inhibiting.Once ideas have been generated, results can be analyzed and best solutions can be explored either using further brainstorming or more conventional solutions.

The Brainstorming Process: The Facilitator RoleA leader or facilitator should guide the session, initially defining the problem to be solved with any criteria that must be met, then keeping the session on track.Facilitators must encourage enthusiastic, non-critical brainstormer attitudes and encourage participation by all team members.The session should be held to an announced time limit and the facilitator should ensure that no single train of thought is pursued for too extensive an amount of time.The facilitator should try to keep the brainstorming on track, and should try to steer it toward the development of practical solutions.Ideas should be visually recorded as they are generated in order to spark additional ideas.

The Brainstorming Process: Participant RolesBrainstormers should represent a wide range of disciplines with a broad range of experience. This will generally bring more creativity to the process.

Brainstorming should be enjoyable and a variety of ideas, ranging from solidly practical to wildly impractical, should be generated in an environment where creativity is welcomed.

Ideas must not be criticized or evaluated during the brainstorming session --- scrutiny is allowed later in the process.

Criticism introduces an element of risk for team members putting forth ideas, stifles creativity, and inhibits the free running nature of a good brainstorming session.

The Brainstorming Process: GoalsBrainstormers should both generate new ideas both by being sparked by the ideas of others as well as sparking ideas in others. This is a natural result of free association.A running record of the session should be kept either via notes or video / audio recording. This should subsequently be evaluated. Both for the purpose of processing information from the session and for improving future sessions.

Group vs. Individual BrainstormingIndividual brainstorming tends to produce a wider range of ideas, but does not develop those ideas as deeply as does group brainstorming since the depth of solution is limited to the knowledge possessed by an individual.

In contrast, group brainstorming produces fewer ideas (as ideas are developed, instead, in greater depth). Dominant individuals may suppress the ideas of creative, but quiet team members.

ExamplesofSeed ParagraphsandImages

Our Irish warriors are as good as any of yours.

Perhaps. But we have knights on horseback and skilled archers, and our men fight in one unit, following one order. The Irish fight man-by-man, each according to his own desire. They cannot overcome one hundred men all following the same order.Aoife, Irish wife of StrongbowRichard de Clare Strongbow Norman knight who lead the 12th Century Norman Conquest of Ireland.

Strongbow: the Story of Richard and Aoife (1992), p. 114 by Morgan Llywelyn,The OBrien Press, Dublin.

How can SAS Expand &Cut Back at the Same Time?During the autumn of 2001 SAS started phasing in our new Airbus A340s,and three of our new A321sare going into service on European routes in January and February of 2002. Media people often ask me Is SAS going ahead with the big investment program for fleet renewal and also adjusting total capacity?When I assure them that we are, they almost always ask How can you follow a strategy for expansion and implement cutbacks at the same time?

The answer lies in two words strength and stability.Jergen Lindegaard, President and CEO, The SAS GroupJanuary / February 2002 SCANORAMA

Magdalena ForsbergSwedish Olympian - 2002Imagine waking up and being able to simply do nothing.Not having to train.Jumping in the car and driving to the country.Making it through a whole daywithout feeling any pain.Goldfinger, January-February 2002, Scanorama, pp. 22-27.

Stefan KllmanSwedish Survival GuruIf you dont have any food,and cant find anything rich in glucose, its better to stay put.You wont die if youdont eat for a week.All you need iswarmth & water.I never bring a full days rations into the wild,not even in winter. Surviving the Chills, January / February 2002 SCANORAMA, pp. 36-41

There is nothing new under the sun.

Solomon

By pressing the buttons on a touchtone phone youmight be breaching international copyright law byperforming one of the copyrighted compositions included in the Magnus-Opus series.10,000,000,000Created by modern Australian composers, Dr. Sonique and Jon Drummond, the compositions were created by assigning sixteen tonal pairs an alphanumeric sequence that was then fed through an algorithmic generator.The composers soon realized that many of the compositions, all of which are copyrighted, correspond to the tonal sequences transmitted when dialing a phone number so dialing the number is a public performance of someone elses song. BUT FEAR NOT, Dr. Sonique and Drummond are selling licensing agreements on their web site, which vary in cost and coverage.SCANORAMA, January / February 2002, p. 70.

Brainstorming Example With the Seed AutomobileNew Software Application DevelopmentAutomobile Ferrari Italy Spaghetti Westerns

Expensive Fast My Name is Clint Eastwood Benchmark Trinity Overtime Custom State of Efficient Make my day Options the Art Algorithms Three Pronged Hardware Approach Take out the Competition

Quality Cost Cycle TimeWindows Large Market Fault Tolerant Testing Share Design

Pope Software Bugs Bounty for Worldwide the Best Implementation Holy Roman Empire Corrupt Aggressive Roman Empire

Rome Colosseum Christians & Lions

Sacrifices (7:1) Lasting Impact

Partner withMicrosoft ISO 9000 Subsequent Releases

EnvironmentalImpact

ISO 14000

Affinity DiagramsAffinity Diag m

Business Plan Implementation

Affinity Diagram

This tool organizes language data. Once brainstormed ideas are written on cards, they are grouped together with similar ideas (affinities) a header card is created which captures the meaning of each group of ideas. This is a creative, right brain, activity.The purpose of the affinity diagram is to creatively generate a large number of ideas / issues and then organize and summarize natural groupings among them to understand the essence of a problem and breakthrough solutions.

When to use an Affinity DiagramChaos exists;The team is drowning in a large volume of information;Breakthrough thinking is required;Broad issues / themes must be identified.

Constructing an Affinity DiagramAssemble the right team: Four to six people with varied perspectives who are creative and open-minded.Phrase issue to be considered: A clearly stated, yet broad, neutral statement which is well understood.Generate & record ideas: Follow brainstorming rules & record each idea on cards and flip chart with no one word cards.Randomly lay out completed cards: On a table, wall, or flip chart;Sort cards into related groupings: Quickly & in silence based on gut reactions. If you disagree - move cards, do not discuss.

Constructing an Affinity DiagramCreate the header cards: These should be concise, but complete with no one word headers - they should make sense as stand-alones. This should capture the essential link in all ideas beneath it as well as what the cards are saying about that link. Place these at the top of each grouping and turn subthemes into subheaders.

Draw the finished affinity diagram: Draw lines connecting headers and subheaders with all the cards beneath them. Bring together all the related groupings and then begin review of the diagram by team members and important non- team members.

Affinity Diagram: Construction/Interpretation TipsKeep the team small;Make sure that ideas are clarified, not criticized during brainstorming;Avoid one word cards - they are often ambiguous & clich;Write clearly - large letters - use felt tip points if possible;Use flip chart to keep ideas visible as they are recorded on cards;When possible, the statement should have both a noun & verb;Dont agonize over sorting;Enforce the silence rule during sorting - discussion is allowed when header cards are created;Look within the grouping first for an appropriate header card.

Affinity Diagram: Construction & Interpretation TipsWhen one group is much larger than the other groups, it should be reanalyzed. It likely contains multiple subheaders.

Keep the number of headers between 5 and 10.

Keep the process moving -- prevent stagnation.

The final product should be reviewed by others and modified as needed.

Affinity Diagram

An Example from GoodyearIssues surroundingimplementation ofthe business plan.

Brainstormed Ideas:issues surrounding implementation of the business plan.Rewards dont Planning approachcompensate Plan not not standardizedteam playing Integrated means are not clearly definedThem / UsPerception Group is not focal Plan is not linked point for conflict to unit financial resolution goals

Issues Surrounding Implementationof the Business Plan The group could function more effectively Our business planning approach must be improved

No strong commitmentCommunication issues Plan not integrated Planning approach not to the groupwithin the group standardized Reconciliation with Functional groups notInsufficient team corporate resource Poor definition oftrusting each otherapproach to new allocation prioritization for marketproduct development introductionGroup members not and introduction. Ownership of planmaking individual doesnt cross Fighting daily problemscommitment toThem / us perception functional lines (alligator / swamp)success of the planCommunication Means are not clearly definedRewards do notbetween functionalcompensate teamgroups is difficultUnrealistic goals create blue sky attitudeplaying.Group is not focalPlan is not linked to unit financial goalspoint for conflictresolutionExternal factors impact implementation

New government regulations

Possibility of economic downturn

A Leadership Application that CombinesThe NGT & L-Shaped MatricesWe desire to select a senior leader for our organization.Brainstorming, possibly using affinity diagrams is used to identify criteria.NGT is used to weight criteria.Matrix diagrams are then used to evaluate candidates for the leadership position.An initially large pool of applicants is progressively winnowed down to a group of finalists. Matrix diagrams and the NGT are carried through a number of stages to assist in this narrowing. Brainstorming, NGT, and Matrix diagrams are used to guide and inform the selection process -- not to make the decision.

Nominal Group Technique (NGT) StepsThe NGT allows a team to quickly reach consensus on the relative importance of issues, problems, or solutions by combining individual importance rankings into final (team) priorities.

* Builds commitment to choice via equal participation;* Allows every member to rank issues without pressure;* Quiet and dominant team members on equal footing;* Consensus (or lack) are visible.

1. Generate the list of issues, problems or solutions to be prioritized;2. Write statements on a flipchart or board (visibility);3. Clarify meanings / Eliminate duplicates;4. Record final list of statements on a flipchart or board;5. Each team member records the corresponding letters on a piece of paper and rank orders the statements (bigger is better);6. Combine the rankings of all team members.

Nominal Group TechniqueJuan Erika KarimTotal Ratio Weight Adjusted Weight

A 1 1 2 4 4/45 0.9 1 B 5 4 5 1414/45 3.1 3 C 4 3 3 1010/45 2.2 2 D 2 2 1 5 5/45 1.1 1 E 3 5 4 1212/45 2.7 3

Total 45 1 10 10

TYPES of MATRIX DIAGRAMSL-Shaped (far and away most commonly used)Relates Two Traits to One AnotherT-ShapedThree Traits, With Two Secondary Related to a Primary Trait.X-ShapedFour Traits with Four Two Way RelationshipsY-ShapedThree Traits, All Two Way Relationship ExpressedC-ShapedThree Traits in a Cubic Form - Three Way Relationship

Matrix DiagramTypes

HINTSThough the L-shaped matrix is most common, it is not always the matrix of choice.When other than an L-shaped matrix is used, carefully determine which two way relationships are most important to investigate.Only the C-shaped matrix can exam three way relationships.

EVALUATIONUse a simple symbolic scheme with, typically, only three levels represented.If multiple evaluators are involved in the matrix construction process, make sure that evaluation criteria are very clearly stated and that a common interpretation is applied.It is easy to combine the NGT with matrix diagrams.

Matrix Diagrams

= Exceeds Expectations = 9 = Meets Expectations = 3

= Below Expectations = 1Matrix DiagramFor Written Responses Question 1Question 2 Question 3 Weight: 3 2 5 Candidate Total Anaya 90 Bates 60 Caron 10

Deng 72 Eagan 14 Gates 60

Levine 78 Miles 66 Ruiz 16

CandidateQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5 Total

Anaya 72 Bates 52 Caron 30

Deng 84 Eagan 30 Gates 44

Levine 54 Miles 66 Ruiz * * * * * * = Exceeds Expectations = 9* indicates candidate dropped = Meets Expectations = 3 from pool prior to this stage - = Below Expectations = 1 this information not gathered.Weight:31312Matrix DiagramFor Telephone Conversation

Stage OneStage TwoStage Three ResultsResults Results Weight: 2 3 5 Candidate Total

Anaya90 (180) 72 (216) 84 (420) 816 Bates60 (120) 52 (156)18 (90) 366 Caron10 (20) 30 (90) * *

Deng72 (144) 84 (252) 54 (270) 666 Eagan14 (28) 30 (90) * * Gates60 (120) 44 (132) 66 (330) 582

Levine78 (156) 54 (162) 46 (230) 548 Miles66 (132) 66 (198) 22 (110) 440 Ruiz16 (32) * * *

* Dropped from consideration after previous stage due to low evaluationThree-Stage Evaluationof Leader Candidates

Interrelationship Digraph: Matrix FormatINTERRELATIONSHIP DIGRAPHThis tool may be used when it is necessary to graphically map out the cause and effect links among all items generated.The clustering of relationship arrows indicate the issues / causes that are the most fundamental among all the related items.

USE WHENRoot causes must be identified.There are a large number of interrelated issues that need to be better defined.Data is not available to identify root causes.Scarce resources require a carefully focused effort.

Interrelationship Digraph:Matrix Format A B C D E F G H In Out Total A 4 1 5

B 0 6 6

C 0 3 3

D 5 0 5

E 1 2 3

F 3 1 4

G 2 2 4 H 3 3 6

Interrelationship Digraph:Construction Steps Assemble the Right Team 4 to 6 members with intimate issue knowledge.

Agree upon an issue or problem statement: This may come from various sources including from open brainstorming, an affinity diagram, a cause & effect diagram, or a tree diagram.

Display the completed cards: These may be pre-organized by affinity diagram headers, in a random distribution, or one-by-one (clustered).

Draw the relationship arrows: Ask of each card does this card cause or influence any of the other cards displayed? Do this for all cards. Draw one-way arrows only as the question is repeated.

Review & revise the first round ID.

Select key items in the finalized ID Find the card(s) with highest number of total arrows. Review all cards for those with predominantly outgoing or incoming arrows. Choose from one to seven key factors to pursue further. Apply the rule of experience to the items passing the arrow test.

Draw the final ID: Identify key factors and base causes.

ID Construction & Interpretation TipsStress implementation knowledge when selecting team members.When starting an ID from scratch - do so via brainstorming.Use portable work surfaces.Use cards or Post-itTM notes for portable ideas.Use when working with 15-50 items.Typically, cards are randomly placed to promote multi-directional thinking.The direction of the relationship arrow is often the most critical decision.In two-way arrow situations, choose the stronger cause of the two.When revising, use large paper and colored markers.Use the highest number of arrows as a first-cut analysis.Look primarily for dominant outgoing arrows to indicate base / root causes, but dominant incoming arrows can show an item that is the real issue that should be discussed further.Dont be a slave to the arrows number game. Use the teams experience.Choose only a manageable number of items.

Kurt Lewin (1890-1947)German-American psychologist, born in Mogilno, Prussia, and educated at the University of Berlin. Later, as a member of the faculty of that university, Lewin made important contributions to the school of Gestalt psychology. After he immigrated to the United States in 1932, he taught at Stanford, Cornell, and Iowa universities, finally becoming director of the Research Center for Group Dynamics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1944.

In his work he studied the problems of motivation of individuals and groups; he also did research on child development and personality characteristics. Lewin's work had a major influence on modern investigations in psychology. Among his books are A Dynamic Theory of Personality (trans. 1935), The Conceptual Representation and Measurement of Psychological Forces (1938), and Resolving Social Conflicts (1947).

Force Field Analysis

Progress is made by increasing the impact of enablersand/or decreasing the impact of obstacles.Force Field Analysis Example:Software DevelopmentShort Time to Launch

Not Enough Software Engineers

Strong Competition

Strong Reengineering Rumors

Poor Planning Framework Market Crying for a Product

Bounty for New S.E. Hires

Strategic Alliance Possible

Sufficient Budget Allocated

Motivated Senior ManagementPositives (+) (-) NegativesEnablers Obstacles

Tree Diagram

167.bin

173.bin

ANAGEMENT &M DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICSDR. RICK EDGEMAN, PROFESSOR & CHAIR SIX SIGMA BLACK BELTREDGEMAN@UIDAHO.EDU OFFICE: +1-208-885-4410LANNINGPTOOLSEnd of Session