mainstreet - final alberta election report

The poll surveyed a random sample of 3,143 Alberta residents by Interactive Voice Response (IVR) on April 29th, 2015.

Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones.Margin of error +/- 1.85%, 19/20.

NEW GOVERNMENT INEVITABLE

May 1st, 2015. Mainstreet Technologies final election poll of 3,143 Albertans finds the NDP leading in every region of the province with the PCs in a clear third. The poll carries a margin of error of +/- 1.85%, 19/20. "To understand where we are at this stage in the election and context for these numbers, we have to look back at where we started. The unpopularity of the budget cannot be overstated, all the taxes that polls suggested were the least popular, except for the PST were brought in. Followed by an early election call which was equally unpopular. Followed by not a single good news announcement. The plan to campaign on a budget that an overwhelming majority of the population disliked at a time that an overwhelming majority of the population did not want, has been a disaster for Jim Prentice." said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Technologies.

"The dynasty in Alberta will come to an end on Tuesday with the election of an NDP government, what seemed like the unlikeliest outcome, is now the only possible outcome. We know from our previous polling that over 75% of Albertans wanted a change in government and they will get it. Few Albertans believed there was a viable alternative to the PCs as a government. While Brian Jean did his very best to prove most Albertans right during the leaders debate, Rachel Notley demonstrated that she was that viable alternative."

"The one factor that we had been seeing in our polling has led to the NDP surge in Calgary and across the rest of Alberta. Wildrose voters had an overwhelming predisposition to vote NDP as their second choice despite the apparent ideological divide. That "anything but PC eect" will be felt across Alberta on election day." Highlights:- 73% of decided voters in Edmonton will vote NDP- 35% of decided voters in Calgary back the NDP, followed by Wildrose at 26%, PCs at 24%- Outside Edmonton and Calgary the NDP lead 39% to 33% over Wildrose, with PCs at 22%- 47% of Liberal voters will back the NDP if there is no Liberal candidate in their district- 39% of Alberta Party voters will back the NDP if there is no Alberta Party candidate in their district- 32% of Albertans believe the PC Party will win the election, 29% the NDP

-30- For more information:David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected] Available for interview from Toronto:Quito Maggi, President, [email protected]

Pour les informations en franais:Steve Pinkus, [email protected]

Background

Over the past 4 weeks Mainstreet has polled voting intentions and issues across Alberta. In the months leading up to the election call, we also polled economic and public policy issues. After the election, we look forward to continuing our polling on important economic and public policy issues that aect Alberta. Throughout, and going forward, we maintain a high standard for what Mainstreet believes is appropriate and responsible sample sizes.

Methodology

As with all our polls, this final poll has a large sample size for Alberta. (3143). Our Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology was used to survey Albertans to a combination of land lines and cellular phones on the night of April 29th 2015. We randomly sampled Alberta within each of three areas, Calgary, Edmonton and Alberta outside of Calgary or Edmonton. The margin of error is +/- 1.85 19 times out of 20.

Results

The NDP are up across Alberta by 14% compared with our last poll and now have the support of 44% of voters. The Undecided is down by 7% to 14% and each of the PCs, Wildrose, Alberta Party and Alberta Liberals are down 2% from our previous poll.

The NDP now lead in every region, Outside Calgary and Edmonton by 5%, in Edmonton by a staggering 59% and in Calgary by 8% and 9% over Wildrose and PCs.

The NDP now also lead in every age category, the highest lead is among voters 18-34 years of age, where they lead the Wildrose by 25% and PCs by 30%. The lowest lead is among those over age 65 where they lead PCs by just 3%.

The NDP lead most categories of voters from certain to those who might vote. The Alberta Liberals lead the NDP among voters who are unlikely to vote. Among those certain to vote, the NDP leads by 17% over the Wildrose Party and 23% over the PCs, with support of 41%. Among certain and likely decided voters, the NDP leads with 45% to the Wildrose 27% and the PCs 21%.

Progressive/Protest Vote Coalescing

Two equally substantial groups of voters have now coalesced in support of the NDP. First, the progressive centre and centre left voters who were previously divided between the Alberta Party, the Alberta Liberals, the NDP and the PCs have all moved in large numbers to the NDP. Also, the anybody but PC votes have decided post debate that the NDP is the best option to defeat the PCs. A base of ideological Wildrose supporters remain, but their support has remained stagnant for the majority of the campaign, despite leading. The momentum eect of NDP support that began in Edmonton, is now felt across all regions.

BREAKDOWNS18-3414%19%5%

44%2%17%237

35-4916%23%5%

38%3%15%787

50-6421%26%4%36%2%11%1121

65+28%24%4%31%2%11%998

Female18%19%5%

39%3%17%1752

Male19%26%4%38%2%11%1391

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSEALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA NDPALBERTA PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLE

EDMONTON14%7%3%

66%1%9%

1040

CALGARY21%22%9%

30%4%14%1061

REST OF AB18%28%3%

33%2%16%1042

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSE PARTYALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA NDPALBERTA PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLE

CERTAIN18%24%4%41%2%11%

LIKELY20%26%3%

30%1%

20%

MIGHT20%3%13%22%5%

38%

UNLIKELY7%1%17%15%6%

54%

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSEALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA NDPALBERTA PARTYUNDECIDED

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSE

ALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA NDP

ALBERTA PARTYUNDECIDED

18%23%4%38%2%14%

-2%-2%-2%

+14%-2%-7%

RECAP - MARCH 29th TO APRIL 29thAlberta Final

Progressive Conservatives Wildrose Alberta LiberalsAlberta NDP Alberta Party Undecided

29-Mar 07-Apr 13-Apr 20-Apr 23-Apr 29-Apr

40

30

20

10

0

REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS

Alberta

Edmonton

Calgary

Rest of Alberta

18%PC23%Wildrose4%Alberta Liberal38%Alberta NDP

2%Alberta Party14%Undecided

14%PC7%Wildrose

3%Alberta Liberal66%Alberta NDP1%Alberta Party

9%Undecided

21%PC22%Wildrose9%Alberta Liberal30%Alberta NDP4%Alberta Party14%Undecided

18%PC28%Wildrose

3%Alberta Liberal33%Alberta NDP


DECIDED ONLY

EDMONTON16%7%3%

73%1%

CALGARY24%26%10%35%5%

REST OF AB22%33%4%39%3%

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSEALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA NDPALBERTA PARTY

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSE PARTY

ALBERTA LIBERAL PARTYALBERTA NDP

ALBERTA PARTY

21%26%5%

44%3%

-5%-6%-3%

+13%-1%

CERTAIN/LIKELY21%27%4%

45%3%

MIGHT/UNLIKELY23%3%

29%35%10%

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSEALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA NDPALBERTA PARTY

DECIDED ONLYAlberta Final Decided

Progressive Conservatives Wildrose Alberta LiberalsAlberta NDP Alberta Party

29-Mar 07-Apr 13-Apr 20-Apr 23-Apr 29-Apr

50

40

30

20

10

0

DECIDED ONLY

Alberta

Edmonton

Calgary

Rest of Alberta

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 80


3%Alberta Party

16%PC7%Wildrose

3%Alberta Liberal73%Alberta NDP1%Alberta Party

24%PC26%Wildrose10%Alberta Liberal35%Alberta NDP5%Alberta Party

22%PC33%Wildrose

4%Alberta Liberal39%Alberta NDP

3%Alberta Party

WHICH PARTY ARE YOU LEANING TOWARDS? [UNDECIDED ONLY]

BREAKDOWNS18-34

8%23%11%6%3%

49%

35-4910%8%6%19%6%52%

50-6412%13%4%11%6%53%

65+11%12%2%11%4%

60%

Female11%12%5%8%4%

60%

Male8%

20%10%16%6%

39%


EDMONTON4%9%3%

20%8%

56%

CALGARY15%15%6%11%7%

46%

REST OF AB9%17%8%10%3%

53%

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSE PARTYALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA NDPALBERTA PARTYUNDECIDED




10%15%7%11%5%

52%

WHICH PARTY ARE YOU LEANING TOWARDS? [UNDECIDED ONLY]Undecided Question 3

Alberta

Edmonton

Calgary

Rest of Alberta

0 10 20 30 40 50


4%PC9%Wildrose

3%Alberta Liberal20%Alberta NDP8%Alberta Party56%Undecided




The Alberta Liberal Party is running candidates in 56 of the 87 electoral districts in the election. Which Party would you support if there was no Liberal candidate in your district?

EDMONTON21%3%

55%15%6%

CALGARY8%19%44%18%11%

REST OF AB1%

19%47%25%8%

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSEALBERTA NDPUNDECIDEDWOULD NOT VOTE


ALBERTA NDPUNDECIDED

WOULD NOT VOTE

6%17%47%21%9%

Question 4 Liberals Only

PC Wildrose Alberta NDP Undecided Would Not Vote

6%

17%

47%

21%

9%

The Alberta Party is only running candidates in 35 of the 87 electoral districts in the election. Which Party would you support if there was no Alberta Party Candidate in your district?


ALBERTA NDPUNDECIDED

WOULD NOT VOTE

2%26%39%14%19%

Question 5 Alberta Party Only

PC Wildrose Alberta NDP Undecided Would Not Vote

2%

26%

39%

14%

19%

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before Election Day? [NDP/WILDROSE/PC]

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE80% STRONG

15% MIGHT CHANGE MIND5% DONT KNOW

WILDROSE PARTY71% STRONG


ALBERTA NDP71% STRONG


And who would be your second choice among the following options?[MIGHT CHANGE MIND/DONT KNOW ONLY]

EDMONTON24%28%20%18%10%

CALGARY28%17%18%21%15%

REST OF AB24%27%24%13%13%

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSEALBERTA NDPALBERTA LIBERALUNDECIDED

PCx

46%20%

WR42%

x27%

NDP26%23%

x

VOTING INTENTIONPROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSEALBERTA NDP

LIB10%6%26%

UD21%24%26%

VOTING INTENTION vs SECOND CHOICE

Question 7: Party v PartyW

ildro

seND

PPC

0 10 20 30 40

46PC

23NDP

6Liberal

24Undecided

20PC

27Wildrose

26Liberal

26Undecided

42Wildrose

26NDP

10Liberal

21Undecided

And who would be your second choice among the following options?[MIGHT CHANGE MIND/DONT KNOW ONLY]Question 7: By Region

Alberta

Edmonton

Calgary

Rest of Alberta

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

26%PC25%Wildrose20%NDP17%Liberal12%Undecided




And who do you think will win the Election on May 5th?

BREAKDOWNS18-3431%20%4%28%1%

16%

35-4933%17%3%31%1%

14%

50-6433%19%3%

29%1%

16%

65+33%20%3%

28%1%

15%

Female33%18%3%

28%1%

18%

Male32%20%3%

30%1%

13%


EDMONTON30%6%3%

48%1%

13%

CALGARY34%21%5%

23%2%15%

REST OF AB32%22%3%

26%1%

16%

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSE PARTYALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA NDPALBERTA PARTYUNDECIDED




32%19%3%

29%1%

16%

WHO WILL WIN?PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSE PARTYALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA NDPALBERTA PARTYUNDECIDED

PC91%21%17%18%22%9%

WR2%

62%8%6%16%10%

NDP1%5%

26%65%25%11%

LIB0%1%

39%2%3%3%

AB1%0%4%0%13%1%

UD6%11%5%10%21%55%

And who do you think will win the Election on May 5th?Question 8: May 5th Election win

Alberta

Edmonton

Calgary

Rest of Alberta

0 10 20 30 40


16%Undecided


13%Undecided




16%Undecided

And who do you think will win the Election on May 5th?Question 8: Party v Party

PC

Wildrose

NDP

Liberal

Alberta

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 100

91%PC2%Wildrose

1%NDP0%Liberal1%Alberta

6%Undecided

21%PC62%Wildrose5%NDP1%Liberal

0%Alberta11%Undecided

18%PC6%Wildrose65%NDP

2%Liberal0%Alberta10%Undecided

17%PC8%Wildrose26%NDP39%Liberal

4%Alberta5%Undecided

22%PC16%Wildrose25%NDP

3%Liberal13%Alberta21%Undecided

Quito Maggi, [email protected]

Learn more about what we do - and how we can work together.

www.mainstreettechnologies.ca

SCRIPT

Q1: How likely are you to vote in the provincial Election?

Absolutely certain to vote or already votedLikely to voteMight voteUnlikely to voteNot eligible to vote [Thank-you message]

Q2: And if a provincial election were held today, which party would you support? Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice Wildrose Party led by Brian JeanLiberal Party led by David SwannNDP led by Rachel NotleyAlberta Party led by Greg Clark Undecided

Q3: Which Party are you leaning toward voting for? [Selected Undecided Q2] Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice Wildrose Party led by Brian JeanLiberal Party led by David SwannNDP led by Rachel NotleyUndecided

Q4: The Alberta Liberal Party is only running candidates in 56 of the 87 electoral districts in the election. If there is no Liberal candidate in your district who would you support among the following options? [Selected Liberal Q2]

Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice Wildrose Party led by Brian JeanNDP led by Rachel NotleyUndecidedWould not vote for any party other than the Alberta Liberal Party

Q5:The Alberta Party is only running candidates in 35 of the 87 electoral districts in the election. Which Party would you support if there was no Alberta Party Candidate in your district?

Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice Wildrose Party led by Brian JeanNDP led by Rachel NotleyUndecidedWould not vote for any party other than the Alberta Party

Q6: Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before Election Day? [If they named a party in Q2]

Strong supporterMight change your mindDont know

Q7: And who would be your second choice among the following options? [Selected Might/Dont Know Q5]

Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice Wildrose Party led by Brian JeanNDP led by Rachel NotleyLiberal Party led by David SwannUndecided

Q8: And who do you think will win the Election on May 5th?

Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice Wildrose Party led by Brian JeanLiberal Party led by David SwannNDP led by Rachel NotleyAlberta Party led by Greg Clark Undecided

Q1: How likely are you to vote in the provincial Election?

Absolutely certain to vote or already votedLikely to voteMight voteUnlikely to voteNot eligible to vote [Thank-you message]

Q2: And if a provincial election were held today, which party would you support? Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice Wildrose Party led by Brian JeanLiberal Party led by David SwannNDP led by Rachel NotleyAlberta Party led by Greg Clark Undecided

Q3: Which Party are you leaning toward voting for? [Selected Undecided Q2] Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice Wildrose Party led by Brian JeanLiberal Party led by David SwannNDP led by Rachel NotleyUndecided

Q4: The Alberta Liberal Party is only running candidates in 56 of the 87 electoral districts in the election. If there is no Liberal candidate in your district who would you support among the following options? [Selected Liberal Q2]

Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice Wildrose Party led by Brian JeanNDP led by Rachel NotleyUndecidedWould not vote for any party other than the Alberta Liberal Party

Q5:The Alberta Party is only running candidates in 35 of the 87 electoral districts in the election. Which Party would you support if there was no Alberta Party Candidate in your district?

Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice Wildrose Party led by Brian JeanNDP led by Rachel NotleyUndecidedWould not vote for any party other than the Alberta Party

SCRIPT

Q6: Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before Election Day? [If they named a party in Q2]

Strong supporterMight change your mindDont know

Q7: And who would be your second choice among the following options? [Selected Might/Dont Know Q5]

Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice Wildrose Party led by Brian JeanNDP led by Rachel NotleyLiberal Party led by David SwannUndecided

Q8: And who do you think will win the Election on May 5th?

Progressive Conservative Party led by Jim Prentice Wildrose Party led by Brian JeanLiberal Party led by David SwannNDP led by Rachel NotleyAlberta Party led by Greg Clark Undecided

mainstreet - final alberta election report

Documents

ndp government

ndp lead

ndp surge

alberta party voters

alberta residents

rest of alberta

early election

election day