mainstreet alberta feb 2016 b

7/25/2019 Mainstreet Alberta Feb 2016 B

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ALBERTA[FEBRUARY 2016 B]

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 3,092 Alberta residents by Smart IVR™ on February 32016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.76%, 19 times of 20. Regional margins of error: Calgary: +/- 3.09%; Edmonton: +/- 2.98%; Rest of Albe+/- 3.09%; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age, gender and geography bason the 2011 Census.

METHODOLOGY



"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyrigh

The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republish

with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmed

NDP SLIDES INTO THIRD

February 6th, 2016 (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll find if an election were hoday in Alberta it would be a tight three way race - with the NDP in third. T

Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.76%, 19 times out of 20.

Quite frankly Premier Notley walked into a fiscal disaster” said Quito Maggi, PresidentMainstreet Research. “The big story here is the return of Alberta’s PC party. There’s nothing they

particularly done in the last few months that stands out - this is movement based disappointment with the NDP government. Even though the Premier doesn’t set the price of he’s the one in power. She just happens to be in the right place at the wrong time.”

Among decided voters it would be a tight race with all parties within 5%. The Wildrose would lwith 33%, the PCs would follow at 31% and the NDP would stand at 27%.

Meanwhile Notley’s approval rating continues to fall to a new low of 36%. She is universally belo

by NDP supporters however. 98% of NDP voters approve of her performance.

Those who like her, love her,” continued Maggi. “Meanwhile, most Albertans are happy with esults of the Royalty Review, 60% say they approve of the outcome. NDP supporters are the mupportive so this has gone over well with the NDP base.”

We also found strong support for job incentive programs. 56% say they approve and only 25%

opposed,” he finished.

About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levof government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian puaffairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshotspublic opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Libegovernment in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has b

he most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayo

election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majogovernment in the 2015 federal election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]



If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

NDPWILDROSE PARTYPROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVESALBERTA LIBERAL PARTY

ALBERTA PARTYUNDECIDED

AMPLE

18-34

24%20%32%5%

8%11%292

35-49

17%37%29%6%

1%10%688

50-64

31%28%23%2%

1%14%984

65+

22%33%17%2%

4%22%1128

Fema

24%28%25%3%

3%17%157

Male

23%30%29%5%

4%9%1518

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

June 2015 October 2015 November 2015 Present

UndecidedNDP Wildrose PC Liberal Alberta

NDPWILDROSE PARTYPROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES

ALBERTA LIBERAL PARTYALBERTA PARTYUNDECIDED

SAMPLE

Edmonton40%14%16%

7%5%17%

1080

Rest of A19%33%31%

2%2%13%

1008

Calgary21%28%25%8%

6%12%

1004

Total23%29%27%

4%4%13%

3092



If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (Decided Only)

NDPWILDROSE PARTY

ROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVESALBERTA LIBERAL PARTY

ALBERTA PARTYAMPLE

18-3427%23%36%5%

9%254

35-4919%41%32%7%

1%616

50-6436%33%27%3%

1%836

65+28%43%22%2%

5%908

Fema29%34%30%3%

4%1285

Male25%33%32%6%

4%1329

NDP Wildrose PC Liberal Alberta

NDPWILDROSE PARTYPROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVESALBERTA LIBERAL PARTYALBERTA PARTY

SAMPLE

Edmonton48%18%20%9%5%

878

Rest of A22%38%35%2%3%

860

Calgary24%32%29%9%7%

876

Total27%33%31%5%4%

2614

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

June 2015 October 2015 November 2015 Present



And, do you approve or disapprove of the way Rachel Notley is handling her job as Premier?

TOTAL APPROVAL: 36% TOTAL DISAPPROVAL: 57% NOT SURE: 7%

STRONGLY APPROVE

SOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVE

NOT SURE

18-3429%

9%10%45%

7%

35-4918%

13%17%48%

4%

50-6425%

14%13%41%

6%

65+15%

21%18%32%

14%

Fema25%

10%14%41%

10%

Male21%

17%14%45%

4%

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE

STRONGLY DISAPPROVE

NOT SURE

Edmonton44%

15%11%21%

9%

Rest of Albe17%

12%10%55%

6%

Calgary22%

15%25%31%

8%

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

May 2015 June 2015 August 2015 Present



STRONGLY APPROVE

SOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVE

NOT SURE

Wildrose4%7%17%71%

1%

Undecide

6%17%13%24%

41%

PC3%11%19%63%

4%

NDP77%21%2%

0%

0%

NDP Wildrose

PC Undecided

Premier’s Approval Rating by Party Affiliation



The provincial government completed its royalty review and decided to not change the royalties for oilsanoperators on existing oil and gas wells. From everything you have seen, heard or read, do you approvedisapprove of the government’s action?

TOTAL APPROVAL: 60% TOTAL DISAPPROVAL: 20% NOT SURE: 20%

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURE

18-3437%17%13%4%28%

35-4937%23%11%14%15%

50-6432%34%12%7%14%

65+26%33%14%9%19%

Fema32%26%10%9%23%

Male37%25%14%8%16%

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVE

NOT SURE

Edmonton47%24%8%4%

18%

Rest of Albe31%23%14%11%

22%

Calgary33%34%13%5%

15%

60%20%

20%



WildroseNDP

PC

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVE

NOT SURE

Wildrose40%24%14%

9%

13%

Undecide20%20%9%9%

42%

PC29%25%13%

12%

21%

NDP45%31%13%1%

10%

Undecided

Royalty Review Approval by Party Affiliation



And, should the Alberta government offer incentives to the energy industry to help promote more drilliexploration activity and job creation?

YES: 56% NO: 25% NOT SURE: 20%

YES

NONOT SURE

18-3452%

27%22%

35-4966%

24%10%

50-6452%

28%20%

65+49%

17%34%

Fema54%

21%25%

Male58%

28%14%

YESNO

NOT SURE

Edmonton44%30%

26%

Rest of Albe61%22%

18%

Calgary53%28%

19%

56%

25%

20%



If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

NDP led by Rachel NotleyWildrose Party led by Brian Jean

Progressive Conservatives led by Ric McIver

Alberta Liberal Party led by David SwannAlberta party led by Greg Clark

Undecided

And, do you approve or disapprove of the way Rachel Notley is handling her job as Premier?

Strongly ApproveSomewhat ApproveSomewhat DisapproveStrongly Disapprove

Not Sure

The provincial government completed its royalty review and decided to not change the royalties fooilsands operators on existing oil and gas wells. From everything you have seen, heard or read, do yo

approve or disapprove of the government’s action?

Strongly ApproveSomewhat Approve

Somewhat DisapproveStrongly Disapprove

Not Sure

And, should the Alberta government offer incentives to the energy industry to help promote more

drilling, exploration activity and job creation?

YesNo

Not Sure



ONLY WE

CALLED

THELIBERAL

MAJORITY

Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East

| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interviewwith a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Pub

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a weekbefore we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 20in defiance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanatiofor how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running

political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015



CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE

mainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER

@MainStResearch

FACEBOOK

fb.com/mainstresearch

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all thevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canad

public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshotspublic opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Libgovernment in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet

been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majogovernment in the 2015 federal election.

mainstreet alberta feb 2016 b

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