mainstreet - alberta december part 2

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Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 3,017 Albertans by Smart IVR™ on December 3rd, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of Error: +/- 1.78%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Edmonton: +/- 3.11%; Calgary +/-3.09%; Rest of Alberta : +/-3.07%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census. DECEMBER 2015

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December 7, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds strong opposition to a new proposed carbon tax with 66% of Albertans opposed to the new tax. Overall 68% oppose the province’s climate plan but views are mixed on individual components aside from the carbon tax. With 3,017 respondents the Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/-1.78%, 19 times out of 20.

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Page 1: Mainstreet - Alberta December Part 2

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 3,017 Albertans by Smart IVR™ on December 3rd, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of Error: +/- 1.78%, 19 times out of

20. Regional margins of error: Edmonton: +/- 3.11%; Calgary +/-3.09%; Rest of Alberta : +/-3.07%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011

Canadian Census.

DECEMBER 2015

Page 2: Mainstreet - Alberta December Part 2

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.

ALBERTANS DIVIDED ON CLIMATE PLAN; PAN CARBON TAX

December 7, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds strong opposition to a new proposed carbon tax with 66% of Albertans opposed to the new tax. Overall 68% oppose the province’s climate plan but views are mixed on individual components aside from the carbon tax. With 3,017 respondents the Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/-1.78%, 19 times out of 20.

“We’ve consistently found opposition to new taxes in Alberta, even with the current economic climate, so it comes as no surprise that most are against the climate plan - and in particular, the carbon tax,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.

“Support for the climate plan is strongest in Edmonton and weakest outside the two major cities . We continue to see strong regional differences in Alberta among this and other issues.”

“Albertans are more or less split on other components of the plan. 50% oppose the switch to renewable power while 44% support it - only a 6% difference; providing compensation to coal power energy plans is supported by 37% but opposed by 33% - a 4% margin; and using money collected from the carbon tax to eliminate the deficit is supported by 43% and opposed by 37% - another 6% difference.”

On two other issues public opinion is more pronounced. 48% support compensation for coal-mining communities (29% oppose it) while 62% say Alberta’s new climate plan will not help with future pipelines approval.

“For now at least Albertans are not convinced the climate plan will help win approval for new pipelines - but if any pipelines are in fact approved in the near future, it would be a big win for Alberta’s NDP and they could certainly frame it to their benefit”, finished Maggi.

ABOUT MAINSTREETMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]

Page 3: Mainstreet - Alberta December Part 2

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LEANING AND DECIDEDFrom what you have seen, heard or read, do you support the province’s new climate plan?

TOTAL SUPPORT: 22% TOTAL OPPOSITION: 68% NOT SURE: 10%

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE

18-3414%11%18%47%11%457

35-498%11%22%48%10%732

50-6413%14%26%38%8%902

65+12%18%23%36%10%926

Female13%13%22%39%13%1695

Male10%11%22%49%7%

1322

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE

Edmonton25%20%15%26%14%991

Rest of Alberta8%10%21%51%10%1021

Calgary12%11%30%40%7%

1005

22%

68%

10%

Page 4: Mainstreet - Alberta December Part 2

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LEANING AND DECIDEDOne of the main elements of the plan is an economy-wide carbon tax. Do you support a carbon tax in Alberta?

TOTAL SUPPORT: 29% TOTAL OPPOSITION: 66% NOT SURE: 5%

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURE

18-3411%13%12%56%7%

35-4916%12%10%57%5%

50-6418%13%17%48%4%

65+14%20%15%47%4%

Female12%13%18%49%7%

Male17%15%8%

57%3%

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURE

Edmonton27%23%15%28%6%

Rest of Alberta10%9%11%65%5%

Calgary17%18%17%43%5%

29%

66%

5%

Page 5: Mainstreet - Alberta December Part 2

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LEANING AND DECIDEDPart of the plan calls for phasing out coal-fired power plants more rapidly to reduce emissions, and ramping up renewable power supply. Advocates say this will reduce smog and improve health in Alberta among those with asthma, opponents say that renewable power will cost much more than coal power. Do you support or oppose the plan to replace coal power with renewable energy?

TOTAL SUPPORT: 44% TOTAL OPPOSITION: 50% NOT SURE: 6%

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURE

18-3423%20%16%35%7%

35-4928%16%22%30%4%

50-6425%20%18%32%5%

65+25%24%16%30%5%

Female26%20%19%28%7%

Male24%18%17%36%5%

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURE

Edmonton43%18%14%16%8%

Rest of Alberta17%18%18%41%6%

Calgary30%24%20%23%2%

44%

50%

6%

Page 6: Mainstreet - Alberta December Part 2

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LEANING AND DECIDEDAnd in your opinion, should the province pay companies compensation for coal-powered electricity plants that are shut down early under the climate plan?

YES: 37% NO: 33% NOT SURE: 30%

YESNONOT SURE

18-3443%32%25%

35-4929%40%31%

50-6439%29%32%

65+38%26%36%

Female36%26%38%

Male39%39%22%

YESNONOT SURE

Edmonton25%36%39%

Rest of Alberta40%29%31%

Calgary39%39%23%

37%

33%

30%

Page 7: Mainstreet - Alberta December Part 2

A8

LEANING AND DECIDEDShould the province pay compensation to coal-mining communities affected by the climate plan?

YES: 48% NO: 29% NOT SURE: 24%

YESNONOT SURE

18-3451%28%21%

35-4943%34%23%

50-6451%26%23%

65+43%22%34%

Female48%25%26%

Male47%32%22%

YESNONOT SURE

Edmonton33%29%38%

Rest of Alberta52%27%21%

Calgary47%32%21%

48%

29%

24%

Page 8: Mainstreet - Alberta December Part 2

A8

LEANING AND DECIDEDShould the Alberta government use money collected from the carbon tax to eliminate the deficit and pay off debt?

YES: 43% NO: 37% NOT SURE: 20%

YESNONOT SURE

18-3446%34%20%

35-4948%39%13%

50-6440%38%22%

65+31%41%28%

Female40%35%24%

Male45%39%15%

YESNONOT SURE

Edmonton48%32%20%

Rest of Alberta41%38%21%

Calgary43%40%18%

43%

37%

20%

Page 9: Mainstreet - Alberta December Part 2

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LEANING AND DECIDEDThe provincial government says taking action on climate change will help the province win approval to build oil pipelines in other provinces and countries. Do you believe Alberta’s climate plan will help get oilsands pipelines built?

YES: 16% NO: 62% NOT SURE: 22%

YESNONOT SURE

18-3418%58%24%

35-4912%72%16%

50-6417%61%22%

65+19%51%30%

Female15%61%24%

Male17%63%20%

YESNONOT SURE

Edmonton27%39%33%

Rest of Alberta12%68%20%

Calgary17%63%19%

16%

62%

22%

Page 10: Mainstreet - Alberta December Part 2

A10

From what you have seen, heard or read, do you support the province’s new climate plan?

Strongly support the planSomewhat support the planSomewhat oppose the planStrongly oppose the plan

Not Sure

One of the main elements of the plan is an economy-wide carbon tax. Do you support a carbon tax in Alberta?

Strongly support a carbon taxSomewhat support a carbon taxSomewhat oppose a carbon taxStrongly oppose a carbon tax

Not Sure

Part of the plan calls for phasing out coal-fired power plants more rapidly to reduce emissions,and ramping up renewable power supply. Advocates say this will reduce smog and improve health in Alberta among those with asthma, opponents say that renewable power will cost much more than coal power. Do you support or oppose the plan to replace coal power with

renewable energy?

Strongly support the planSomewhat support the planSomewhat oppose the planStrongly oppose the plan

Not Sure

And in your opinion, should the province pay companies compensation for coal-poweredelectricity plants that are shut down early under the climate plan?

Yes No

Not Sure

Should the province pay compensation to coal-mining communities affected by the climate plan?

Yes No

Not Sure

Page 11: Mainstreet - Alberta December Part 2

A11

Should the Alberta government use money collected from the carbon tax to eliminate the deficit and pay off debt?

YesNo

Not Sure

The provincial government says taking action on climate change will help the province winapproval to build oil pipelines in other provinces and countries. Do you believe Alberta’s

climate plan will help get oilsands pipelines built?

YesNo

Not Sure

Page 12: Mainstreet - Alberta December Part 2

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© 2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.