Projections and scenario analysis for climate and nitrogen action planning

Allison Leach, Jennifer Andrews, & Yulia Rothenberg

University of New HampshireSustainability Institute

Elizabeth DukesUniversity of Virginia

• SIMAP background• Projection & scenario results• Excel templates

• Integrated planning strategies• Case study 1: University of Virginia and nitrogen• Case study 2: University of New Hampshire and climate

Outline

Part 1: Projections & scenarios

Part 2: Integrated planning

SIMAP integrates two tools

•Developed in 2001 at UNH•Excel and web version•Used by thousands of

institutions

•Developed in 2009 at UVA•Excel-based•Used by 20 institutions•Completed pilot testing

Why a new tool?

1) Broader picture of environmental impacts

2) Integrate with other reporting platforms

3) Single tracking tool

1

3

2 FoodEnergy

Carbon Nitrogen

3) Research about data trends

4

Others in the future

3) UNHSI’s ability to support the tool

5

20012004 2012

2014 20172009

How did we get here?Carbon

2009

2013 2014-2017

20172014

UVA N reduction goal

EPA grant

NFT v1 launched

NFT Network

Pilot testing by cohorts 1-3

2017

Leach senior thesis

How did we get here?Nitrogen

Challenge: Optimize the use of nitrogen,

while minimizing the negative impacts

Necessary for lifeSynthetic fertilizer provides unlimited N supply for food

Negative impacts to environmental & human health

Benefits Drawbacks

Why do we care about nitrogen?

A nitrogen footprint is the amount of reactive nitrogen released to the environment as a result of an entity’sresource consumption

Food*

*Food consumption and production

Energy1 2

What is a nitrogen footprint?

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0St

arch

y ro

ots

Frui

ts

Vege

tabl

es

Rice

Nut

s

Puls

es

Whe

at Oil

Milk

Fish

Eggs

Poul

try

Pork

Chee

se

Beef

Prod

uct f

ootp

rints

, no

rmal

ized

to b

eef

Carbon & nitrogen footprint of food

Leach et al. 2016Heller & Keoleian 2014Carbon (kg CO2-eq) Nitrogen (g Nr)

Consistent trends across C & N footprints

Crops Meat & animal products

Carbon and nitrogen footprint

projections and scenarios

C N

• Estimate effects of management strategies on current or projected footprint:– Changes in emissions

– Cost of scenarios

What are projections and scenarios?

Projections Solutions/scenarios/projects

• Estimate future emissions based on:– Population growth– Planned construction– More!

Both are important for accurate and informed goal setting!

• Users entered detailed project* data in CCC– No “standard scenarios”

• Metrics to view results in the CCC:– Impact on C footprint

– Life-cycle cost of project

– Payback time of the project

– Net present value (life-cycle cost/savings per ton of C)

What methods have been used?

Projections Solutions/scenarios/projects

• Methods for projecting in the CCC:– Linear– Normalized by students– Normalized by square feet– Custom trends– Variable trends

CCC = Campus Carbon Calculator

In the CCC: ProjectionsEm

issio

ns (t

CO2

e)

In the CCC: Weighing Solutions A - Purchase high capacity buses

H - Co-fire biomass in steam plant

L - Purchase wind power

R – Natural Gas Blend in Steam Plant

S - Install solar electric system

In the CCC: Weighing Solutions

Emissions Reductions (t CO2e)

Net P

rese

nt V

alue

(200

5 US

D)

In the CCC: Wedge diagram

-

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1990 2000 2010 2020Year

MT

eCO 2

EcoLine-Land fill Gas Pipeline

LEED Silver-Equivilant Build ing Standards

Geo termal Heating in Gab les

Rep lace Oil Bo ilers with Wood Pellets Po rduced on Campus

Networked Computer Sleep Mode

Rep lace Electric Heating Sys tems

BAS Upgrades

Lighting Upgrades

Abso rp tion Chillers

So lar Ho t Water fo r Parsons

Improved Moto rs Effeciencies

Heat Dis tribution Insulat iona

Phillb rook Chiller Plant Convers ion

20 Low Flow Fume Hoods

50 kW Wind Turb ines

50 kW So lar Panels

1 Degree Temp Set-back

Centralized Summer Scheduling

EcoLiving Coord inato r

Real-t ime Energy Monito ring in Res idence Halls

ENERGY STAR Refrigerato r Requirement

Power Down Campaign

One Cred it Required Sus tainab ility Course

CFLs Fo r Students

Trans it ion All Diesel Vehicles to B20

Staff Telecommuting

Clean Fleet

RailCat

Infrequent Parking Permits

Cat Currier

Emiss ions After Reductions

10% Below 1990 Emiss ions

Emiss

ions

(t C

O2e)

Example at UNH

141 MT N

67,000 MT CO2e

N fo

otpr

int (

met

ric to

ns N

)

C fo

otpr

int (

1,00

0 M

T CO

2e)

Food is key sector for nitrogen

Energy sectors are key sector for carbon

- 10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2014baseline

2030BAU

2030scenarios

Carbonfootprint(MTCDE)

Research

Transport &commuting

Utilities

Foodconsumption

Produce

Dairy,eggs,&fish

Meat

PROJECTIONS: UNH’s C footprint in 2030

+17%

-66%*

Assumes 2% growth rate for energy, linear population projection for food (0.7%)

BAU = Business As Usual*Relative to 2014 footprint*When compared to 2001 C baseline, reduction is 71%

- 20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2014baseline

2030BAU 2030scenarios

Nitrogenfootprint(M

TN)

Research

Transport &commuting

Utilities

Foodconsumption

Produce

Dairy,eggs,&fish

Meat

PROJECTIONS: UNH’s N footprint in 2030

+11%

-15%*

Assumes 2% growth rate for energy, linear population projection for food (0.7%)

*Relative to baseline (2014). *C footprint goal + feasible food scenarios shown BAU = Business As Usual

Next steps for projections and scenarios in SIMAP:

What can you do in the meantime?Use our Excel scenario templates!

• Conducted survey in spring/summer• More feedback welcome!

• Beginning development• Beta testing in early 2019

Food scenarios template

simap@unh.edu

Energy scenarios template

amp6cy@virginia.edu

Questions about projections and scenarios?

Part 2: Integrated planning strategies

Alley LeachUniversity of New Hampshire

Sustainability Institute

Questions for proposing C+N goal

1. What other sustainability goals are in place or planned?

2. At what level should the goal be approved (e.g., governing

body, university)?

3. How should the goal be framed (e.g., overall, scopes)?

4. What should the goal year be?

5. What should the % reduction goal be?

1. What other sustainability goals are in place or planned?

Real Food

Challenge

Menus

of

Change

Buy

Local

Carbon &

Climate

Commitments

Recycle-

mania

(PLAN)

Zero

Waste

(PLAN)

Food

Recovery

Challenge

(EPA)

STARS(AASHE)

Waste-

Wise

(EPA)

Barnes et al. 2017Colorado College & University of New Hampshire

2. At what level should the goal be approved?

1. Research exercise: Internal stand-alone N footprint calculations and/or goal

2. Grassroots action: No goal, but working with stakeholders to push reduction strategies

3. N benefits: No goal, but N benefits mentioned in other plans

4. Goal based on existing plans

5. New goal approved by governing body Higher commitment

Lower commitment

NO G

OAL

GOAL

3. How should the goal be framed?

• Overall goal• A single reduction goal for the overall N footprint

• Per capita/normalized goal• Reduction goal(s) normalized to campus users

• Scope goals• Separate reduction goals for scope 1+2 (local) and scope 3 (not local)

• Sector goals• Separate goals for energy, transit, food, etc.

Other questions to consider:

4. What should the baseline year and goal year be?

5. What should the % reduction goal be?

The University of Virginia’s Nitrogen Action Plan Elizabeth Dukes

N

From goal setting to action plans at UVA

Goal setting Action plans

1. Carbon (2009)

2. Nitrogen (2010)

3. Water (2010)

4. Materials (2014)

5. And more!

1. Greenhouse Gas (2017)

2. Nitrogen (2018)

3. Materials (2018)

4. Sustainable food (2018)

5. And more!

Sustainability Goals and Action Plans at the University of Virginia

Greenhouse Gas Action Plan

Materials Action Plan

Sustainable Food Action Plan

Nitrogen (N) Action Plan

What’s Included in the N Action Plan?

1. Reductions from GHG Action Plan a) Purchased Electricity b) On-site utilities c) Transportation

2. Reductions from Sustainable Food Action Plan a) Increase vegetarian meals b) Increase local purchasing c) Opening plant-based café

3. Reductions from Materials Action Plana) Composting waste

4. Other specific N scenarios a) Higher reductions in utilities sectors b) More stringent meat reduction strategies in food sectors c) Offsets for N

UVA’s Nitrogen Footprint: Action Plans Combined

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2010 2014 2016 BAU 2025 GHG Plan SustainableFood Plan

NitrogenAction Plan

MT

N

Food

T&D Losses

Wastewater

StudentCommutingStaff Commuting

FacultyCommutingPurchasedElectricityFertilizer &AnimalsDirect Transport

On-CampusStationary

-12% -17%

-2%

-16% -11%

-25%

Take-aways for UVA’s Nitrogen Action Plan

1. Current action plans strategies will allow UVA to reach 25%

reduction goal.

2. Collaboration with multiple sectors at the university (dining, facilities,

health system, etc.) will reduce N footprint and meet other goals!

A climate resilience plan at the University of New Hampshire

Jennifer AndrewsUniversity of New Hampshire

Sustainability Institute

Framing Resilience: “Five Capitals” Model

Findings: Priority Opportunities• Use improved understanding of needs to improve social capital/systems to drive change in

other capitals, primarily by working to break down silos and ensure collaborative, inclusive, transparent and effective processes

• Better communication and outreach• Continue/enhance student engagement• Add community representatives to Task Forces• Water conservation – demand/summer, $• Promote active transportation• Update WildCAP to meet/exceed GHG reduction goals • Land conservation policies in light of development pressure• Updated and implement Landscape Master Plan• Accelerate sustainable food initiatives• Provide more interpersonal resilience skills training for students, staff, faculty• Research: groundwater mapping• Research: supply chains• Focus on indicator data collection

The Five Capitals:Connected to Every Aspect of Sustainability

Physical • Energy and GHG planning• Buildings, deferred maintenance, and codes and

zoning;• Greening of fleets, streets (i.e. storm water) and

TDM; • Supply chains for food, water, waste disposal

Natural/Ecological• Landscape master plan update • Nitrogen footprint reduction • Land policy committee: zoning, land use planning

Human• “Healthy UNH”—including Menus of Change• Learning outcomes• Research and engaged scholarship• “Campus climate”• Sustainable food systems• Inclusion and diversity

Social • Coordination and planning• Social justice and racial equity

Financial • Move to life-cycle cost accounting in planning• Housing affordability• Living wages• Staffing and employment• Corporate social responsibility, social innovation• Sustainable investment

SummaryProjections and scenarios Goal setting

• Important for informed and accurate goal setting

• Excel templates available now

• Beta testing in early 2019

• Lots of options for integrated carbon and nitrogen goals

• Integrated goal setting is win-win for sustainability initiatives

unhsimap.org